The Washington Center for Equitable Growth today announced that Shayna Strom has been named its interim president and CEO. Strom comes to the organization with decades of experience bridging nonprofits, government, philanthropy, and academia, along with a deep commitment to fostering economic growth by addressing inequality.
“I am honored to join the Washington Center for Equitable Growth as its interim president and CEO,” Strom said. “Equitable Growth’s mission is more important than ever—to support research that shows how inequality affects economic growth and to promote policies reflecting that. I have long been an admirer of Equitable Growth’s work, and I am thrilled to contribute as interim president and CEO in its next chapter.”
“For nearly a decade, Equitable Growth has worked to advance ideas and policies that promote strong, stable, and broad-based economic growth,” said Equitable Growth Board member Steve Daetz. “Shayna brings a wealth of expertise from her time spent in government, nonprofits, and the academy that is critical in this role, and I am confident she will do an outstanding job leading Equitable Growth forward as one of the most influential economic research organizations.”
In addition to serving on the Biden-Harris transition team, Strom’s career in government includes 4 years working for the Obama administration, as an adviser to the head of the Office of Management and Budget and as chief of staff and senior counselor at the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, where she negotiated the policy and politics of many of President Barack Obama’s high-profile regulations. She previously served as counsel on the Senate Judiciary Committee for Sen. Al Franken (D-MN), where she worked on antitrust issues, among other topics.
Strom served as chief deputy national political director at the American Civil Liberties Union, where she helped launch a 75-person department focused on policy, issue campaigns, and grassroots organizing. She also served on the initial leadership team that set up the nonprofit organization Indivisible.
Additionally, Strom has taught at Johns Hopkins University, Sarah Lawrence College, and the Biden Institute at the University of Delaware. She was a 2021–2022 SNF Agora visiting fellow at Johns Hopkins University and a fellow at the Labor and Worklife Program at Harvard Law School. She has written and testified about labor policy and the changing workplace economy.
Strom graduated summa cum laude from Yale College, and received a J.D. from Yale Law School and an M.Sc. from Oxford University, where she was a Rhodes Scholar.
Strom will lead Equitable Growth as interim president and CEO while the national executive recruitment firm BoardWalk Consulting works to find the next permanent president and CEO.
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting recession in 2020, followed by a swift U.S. economic recovery, offer lessons today about why real-time data are so crucial to understanding the scale of an economic crisis and determining the appropriate government response. Policymakers would be helped immeasurably by greater access to data that allow them to gauge the efficacy of their policy decisions in real time. Especially crucial are data that show how U.S. households are affected by those decisions.
Yet there is little real-time aggregate consumer spending data or real-time data on spending inequality published by federal statistical agencies, academic economists, or private actors. The main government survey that is used by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate spending is the Consumer Expenditure Survey, which is released on a significant delay.
Without a real-time measure of spending inequality, academics and policymakers alike are blind to this important measure of economic activity before, during, and after an economic crisis. We created Real-Time Spending Inequality, a new web-based project, to fill this gap, providing timely updates on the status of U.S. consumer spending inequality. Our first data release and report, updated quarterly, covers the first two years of the ongoing pandemic, starting in January 2020 and currently updated through April 2022.
We use data provided by Earnest Research to analyze transaction-level data from credit cards, debit cards, checks, store cards, and bank account transfers from a panel of more than 10 million U.S. households. The ultimate source of the data is an anonymous large personal finance and payments aggregator.
These data include both expenditures and inflows of income into bank accounts. And importantly, the account aggregator data contain information on all accounts, even if the individual U.S. household has accounts at multiple financial institutions. The dataset spans the time period of January 2018 to the present and is updated in near real time.
To study spending inequality, we sort individual U.S. households into quartile cohorts based on their 2019 annual income and then calculate the average amount of spending and spending growth for these different cohorts over time. Our primary measure of spending is year-over-year total spending growth, which compares spending of the cohorts in a week to their spending a year ago in the same week. Looking at year-over-year spending automatically adjusts for seasonality in our data.
In addition to looking at these 1-year-before comparisons, we also chart how consumption has changed compared to the same week in 2019, instead of the year before. These graphs (Figures 3 and 4 in this column) show how spending compares only to 2019, before the pandemic introduced enormous distortions into the economy.
Our first finding is that spending inequality decreased in 2020 and 2021, but is rising in 2022. During calendar year 2020, we find a hierarchy of spending growth: The lowest income quartile, earning between $10,000 and $35,000 annually at the time, shows the highest spending growth, followed by the next three quartiles in succession ($35,000 to $66,000, $66,000 to $115,000, and more than $115,000, respectively).
Average year-on-year spending growth is 16 percent for the bottom 25 percent of income-earning households in 2020, compared to 6.5 percent for the top 25 percent. In 2021, average year-over-2019 spending growth for the bottom quartile was 35.3 percent, compared to 15.3 percent in the top quartile. For 2022, year-over-2019 spending growth was 32.7 percent for the bottom income quartile, compared to 19.7 percent for the top. (See Figure 1 and Figure 3 below.)
Figure 1
Spending by the bottom 25 percent of U.S. households by income increased the most over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic
Growth in spending by U.S. households, by income quartile, compared to the same week in 2019, from January 2020 to March 2022
Source: Loujaina Abdelwahed and others, “Real-time Spending Inequality” (n.d.), available at https://spendinginequality.org/.
To visualize how the surge in spending by U.S. households in the lowest quartile of income impacted consumption inequality, we also compute the ratios of spending by the high-income cohort to that of the low-income one, and then track the year-on-year growth rate of the ratios. We find there is a marked decrease in total spending inequality during 2020 and 2021, with the ratio of total spending by the highest-income quartile of households to spending by the lowest-income quartile of households declining by as much as 28 percent in 2020.
The year 2021 saw a continued substantial decline in spending inequality, with an average decline in the ratio of spending by the bottom quartile of income-earning households and the top quartile of 14 percent over 2019 levels. Through the first 3 months of 2022, when most of the pandemic-induced government income support programs were ending, there was a moderate rise in spending inequality. The average income-quartile-4-to-income-quartile-1 ratio was 9.2 percent less in 2022 than the same week in 2019, compared with -14 percent in 2021. (See Figure 2 and Figure 4 below.)
Figure 2
The ratio of spending by high-income U.S. households to that of lower-income ones fell significantly amid the COVID-19 pandemic
Ratio of growth in spending by U.S. households, by income quartile, compared to the same week in 2019, from January 2020 to March 2022
Source: Loujaina Abdelwahed and others, “Real-time Spending Inequality” (n.d.), available at https://spendinginequality.org/.
Our analysis of this dataset enables us to examine the effectiveness of the stimulus payments that were sent to some U.S. households. We find that the stimulus payments contributed to reducing spending inequality.
Figure 3, which compares spending to the same week in 2019 only, shows that the three government stimulus payments are associated with large spending increases, yet the different groups are not affected equally. There is a hierarchy of spending: The lowest income quartile shows the greatest jumps, followed by the middle income quartiles, and finally the highest income quartile with the smallest increase. For this analysis, we focus on the second and third stimulus payments, in December 2020 and January 2021 and in March 2021, respectively, because the first stimulus payment in April 2020 occurred close to the start of the pandemic. (See Figure 3.)
Figure 3
Federal stimulus payments during the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a consistent decline in spending inequality, compared to before the pandemic
Growth in spending by U.S. households, by income quartile, compared to the same week in 2019, from January 2020 to March 2022
Source: Loujaina Abdelwahed and others, “Real-time Spending Inequality” (n.d.), available at https://spendinginequality.org/.
The second stimulus payments were sent out in December 2020 and January 2021, with up to $600 paid out to eligible U.S. households. Around the time of the payment, spending growth by those in the lowest-income quartile increased from 21 percent before the stimulus payments were sent to 42 percent afterward. The highest income quartile experienced more moderate spending growth, from 9.7 percent to 23 percent.
The third stimulus payment of up to $1,400 for eligible U.S. households was sent out in March 2021. Spending growth by the lowest quartile increased by 35.2 percentage points around these payments, compared with 11.7 percentage points by the highest income quartile. (See Figure 4.)
Figure 4
The three federal stimulus payments during the COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial decreases in spending inequality
Ratio of spending growth by high-income households to low-income households, by income quartile, compared to the same week in 2019
Source: Loujaina Abdelwahed and others, “Real-time Spending Inequality” (n.d.), available at https://spendinginequality.org/.
Our analysis of the data in Figure 4 finds that the ratio of spending inequality between the lowest-income quartile of U.S. households and the highest quartile decreased by 4 percent pre- to post-stimulus payment for the second stimulus payment of up to $600. The third stimulus payment of $1,400 was associated with an even more dramatic decline in inequality, with the same ratio decreasing by 25 percent pre- to post-stimulus payment.
Going forward, we will continue to use real-time data at Real-Time Spending Inequality to study how spending inequality evolves as the U.S. economy continues to recover from the pandemic. Our next report will focus on the effects of the federal Child Tax Credit on spending inequality, as well as how inflation is shaping spending patterns across the income distribution.
As the U.S. economy and society enter the third year of the pandemic, fast-moving events continue to point toward the importance of real-time data in understanding the state of the U.S. economy and the impacts of economic policies and critical U.S. social infrastructure. While the federal government has made important steps forward in collecting real-time data, the substantial lags at which consumption inequality data is available should move policymakers to use alternative data sources to study this crucial measure of our well-being.
—Loujaina Abdelwahed is an economist at The Cooper Union. Jacob Robbins is an economist at the University of Illinois-Chicago. Cole Campbell, Shogher Ohannessian, and Todd Czurylo are Ph.D. candidates in economics at UI-Chicago.
In recent weeks, students across the United States headed back to school to continue their educations. From Kindergarten through high school and into college, these students are gaining valuable human capital that will help prepare them for their future careers and are building their knowledge base, as well as the social circles that will accompany them through their years of learning ahead.
While studying hard and getting good grades certainly has an impact on students’ future success, new findings from a pair of research papers suggests that who one studies and becomes friends with can also have important implications for upward economic mobility, particularly among lower-income children. Indeed, the studies find that if low-income children grew up in neighborhoods where 70 percent of their friends were from higher-income families, the lower-income children’s future incomes went up by an average of 20 percent.
The papers suggest that this boost in income is driven by so-called economic connectedness—a kind of social capital that looks at the proportion of children from low socioeconomic status who have friends from high socioeconomic backgrounds. In fact, the studies find that economic connectedness is the strongest predictor of upward mobility—more so even than other oft-studied mobility factors, such as neighborhood income level, poverty rates, family structures, or school quality—and is the main reason why some places offer higher rates of mobility than otherwise-similar places. The studies also explain that high schools and colleges both prove to be important places to build and foster these connections.
The link between social capital and upward mobility has been examined before, but the two new papers do so on an unprecedented scale. The four lead co-authors—Raj Chetty of Harvard University, Matthew Jackson of Stanford University, and Theresa Kuchler and Johannes Stroebel of New York University—worked alongside a team of researchers to examine anonymized data from Facebook for more than 70 million individuals and 21 billion friendships. Because the amount of data was so large, the authors were able to measure the link between social capital and upward economic mobility better than ever before, thus allowing them to identify economic connectedness as the most relevant factor to achieving improved outcomes in the future.
In the first paper, the authors measure and analyze three types of social capital by U.S. ZIP code using the Facebook data: connectedness between different types of people, including economic connectedness, or friendships between low- and high-income people; social cohesion, or the level of connection between one’s social circles; and civic engagement, such as rates of volunteering for or self-reported trust in local organizations. The co-authors find that economic connectedness is the strongest of the three in predicting whether someone from a low socioeconomic background as a child has a higher socioeconomic status as an adult.
To be sure, the other two types of social capital matter as well. Yet the study suggests that in places where social cohesion and civic engagement are lacking, higher economic connectedness alone is enough to positively impact future economic outcomes.
The second paper by Chetty, Jackson, Kuchler, and Stroebel delves into how these so-called cross-class friendships actually form. The co-authors find that two main factors affect these relationships: exposure to socioeconomically diverse groups and friending bias, or the tendency for low socioeconomic status children to befriend high-income children at lower rates, even after exposure.
The research team explains that while both exposure and friending bias matter about equally in determining the proportion of high-income friends that low-income students have, exposure is the critical first step. After all, a willingness to become friends with people from different backgrounds can only be acted upon if the opportunity to meet each other happens first.
The co-authors then look at where children actually make friends, finding that high schools and colleges are critical places that enable exposure to socioeconomically diverse groups—that is, if the schools are sufficiently diverse. Yet many schools and districts in the United States are highly segregated by race and, increasingly, self-segregated by income—meaning opportunities for exposure are more and more limited for these children.
Though the study does not look specifically at the racial breakdowns of friendships—an important limitation to keep in mind—it remains an important reminder of why efforts at integration in schools are so beneficial, and segregation so deeply harmful, for U.S. children. The team of researchers makes several suggestions for how to better strengthen engagement and increase cross-class friendships, such as changing how students are grouped together in school, how school campuses are designed, where public spaces such as parks and libraries are located and what activities they offer, and which extracurriculars are encouraged and available.
But the co-authors also caution that integration must go beyond simply ensuring race and class diversity or bringing people together. For policies that promote integration to really have an impact, they must allow for meaningful interaction, personal development, and shared power and goals. And they must be done in coordination with other efforts to strengthen the financial well-being of lower-income Americans.
While it remains unclear why having higher-income friends matters, other research does suggest some potential explanations. For instance, having friends from higher socioeconomic status—or friends whose parents completed college—can influence a child’s own expectations about going to college. These parents and their broader social networks also can serve as role models, exposing children to new career paths and opportunities, and even helping place them in relatively well-paying jobs. Studies also show that having higher-income friends can strengthen a lower-income child’s cultural capital, which can signal to potential employers a good cultural fit in prestigious, high-paying occupations.
Ultimately, the findings underscore that it’s not only what you know, but who you know, that matters. Policymakers in the United States should keep these two new papers in mind as they craft proposals seeking to boost upward mobility and address growing income inequality.
In addition to these trends and intentional policy choices that make workers worse-off, social scientists are studying how corporate governance affects workers’ wages, employment, and ability to bargain collectively. These researchers are also looking into how the rise of shareholder value as the main objective of U.S. corporations relates to income inequality, productivity, and labor’s share of economic growth in the United States. This research offers evidence that the rise in shareholder power reinforces the impacts of the decline of the U.S. labor movement—a decline that has had broad spillover effects across the country’s economy and has limited workers’ ability to share in the gains of the economic value they create.
In this issue brief, we examine a series of important changes to corporate governance in the United States between the 1970s and 1990s, the simultaneous decline in the country’s job quality and worker power, and the relationship between the two trends. Specifically, we discuss some of the academic evidence on the relationship between the rise of shareholder primacy, new management practices, and workers’ labor market outcomes. We then turn to policy recommendations that have the potential to strengthen labor vis-à-vis shareholders—a set of proposals that would rebalance bargaining power in the labor force, boosting productivity and promoting broadly shared economic growth.
How maximizing shareholder value became the main objective of U.S. corporate governance
“Shareholder primacy” is an economic and legal theory that proposes that maximizing wealth for shareholders should be the main, if not the sole, objective of publicly traded companies. This framework became the dominant model driving corporate governance in the United States beginning around four decades ago, gaining prominence as a number of economic, social, and academic shifts allowed it to displace the “managerialist” philosophy that guided public companies’ decision-making processes during the mid-20th century.
As legal scholar Lynn Stout explains, for most of the post-World War II era, large U.S. corporations generally thought of themselves as serving the interest of a wide variety of stakeholders—customers, suppliers, workers, and local communities. Yet between the 1970s and the 1990s, maximizing shareholder value came to trump every other corporate interest and priority.
A number of economic changes led to the growth of shareholder primacy. In the 1970s, for example, corporations began to look for new business models after facing several economic crises, alongside an increase in international competition in industries such as car manufacturing and consumer electronics, and poor performance as companies grew too big. At the same time, William Lazonick at the University of Massachusetts and Mary O’Sullivan at the University of Geneva propose, there was a shift in the distribution of stockholding away from households and toward large institutional investors. This occurred as the U.S. financial sector loosened restrictions on the extent to which life insurance companies and pension funds could own corporate equities. Indeed, the share of U.S. corporate equities held by institutions soared from 10 percent in the early 1950s to more than 60 percent in the early 2000s.
U.S. job quality and workers’ bargaining power simultaneously declines
Meanwhile, economic sociologists Neil Fligstein and Take-Jin Shin at the University of California, Berkeley write, the advent of shareholder primacy meant that publicly traded firms increasingly perceived workers as input costs rather than as contributors to be included or considered in the corporate decision-making process.
Playing into this changing economic landscape, according to David Weil at Brandeis University, was a fundamental change in the way firms organized themselves and structured their workforces. This so-called fissuring of the workforce describes how big firms stopped directly employing workers that perform roles outside the core competency of their businesses. Janitorial services, for example, were largely transferred to a smaller network of firms through arrangements such as subcontracting and franchising, allowing large corporations to avoid the costs and obligations of traditional employment relationships with their janitorial staff. For workers, this shift generally resulted in lower compensation, less access to employer-provided benefits, fewer opportunities for career advancement, and greater vulnerability to labor law violations.
Similarly, Arne Kalleberg at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and David Howell at the New School University argue that the rise of the financial sector and the prevalence of shareholder value strategies in the United States contributed to the erosion of labor market institutions, including the fall in the real value of the minimum wage, weakening union bargaining power, and the decline in the protective effect of laws and regulations that govern employment relationships.
Christopher Kollmeyer at the University of Aberdeen and John Peters at Laurentian University likewise find evidence that between the early 1970s and the early 2010s, U.S. corporate governance strategies that shrunk labor costs and redirected resources away from productive investment contributed to the decline in union density in a number of high-income countries, including the United States.
To be sure, firms’ growing concern with maximizing shareholder value was not the only important change in U.S. business strategies between the 1970s and 1990s, let alone in the U.S. economy writ large. Yet there is evidence that the advent of shareholder value as the most important concern for corporate governance had important effects on wage growth, income inequality, and workers’ ability to bargain for better workplace conditions in the United States.
Empirical evidence demonstrates that shareholder primacy lowers workers’ wages and worsens employment outcomes
While several scholars have long proposed that the rise of shareholder power affects workers, recent empirical studies contribute to the academic understanding of the size and importance of shareholder power’s effect, and the precise mechanisms through which shareholder primacy influences labor market outcomes.
For example, an analysis by José Azar of the University of Navarra, Yue Qiu of Temple University, and Aaron Sojourner of the Upjohn Institute finds that greater common ownership in a labor market—or the concentration of investment positions of public companies in the hands of a few large institutional shareholders—is associated with both lower wages and a lower employment-to-population ratio. With about 1 in 3 U.S. private-sector workers employed in publicly traded firms, the concentration of shareholders across firms through common ownership by institutional investors could play a significant role in the overall structure of the labor market.
Likewise, in a new working paper, Antonio Falato of the Federal Reserve Board, Hyunseob Kim at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and Till von Wachter at the University of California, Los Angeles examine the relationship between shareholder power and workers’ earnings and employment. The authors find that as establishments experience an increase in ownership by institutional shareholders, they also experience a decline in employment and payroll costs. This finding holds both at the establishment and the industry level.
Moreover, Falato, Kim, and Von Wachter find that an increase in ownership by institutional shareholders explains about a quarter of the decline in the ratio of total wages and salaries to Gross Domestic Income—a metric that has seen an important drop in the past four decades— between 1980 and 2014. (See Figure 1).
Figure 1
Lenore Palladino at Smith College also studies the relationship between profits, shareholder payments, and wage growth, finding that as shareholder payments as a percent of companies’ profits grew, the share of profits that went to workers’ wages declined. In addition, through firm-level empirical analysis and accounting for macroeconomic factors and a number of firm-specific characteristics, Palladino shows that as shareholder payments as a portion of operating expenses increased between 1984 and 2017, wages paid to workers fell.
Evidence also shows that as shareholder primacy and the financialization of the U.S. economy more broadly influence workers’ outcomes, these trends also contribute to widening racial and gender inequality in the U.S. labor market. Indeed, a team of researchers finds that between the 1980s and the 2010s, the pay for workers in managerial occupations did not only outpace the pay of workers in other types of jobs, but White and Latino men also have benefited disproportionately from this financial and managerial wage premium.
Business practices that lead from shareholder primacy to inefficient and inequitable workplace outcomes
What mechanisms underlie the effect of shareholder primacy on workplace outcomes? One body of research looks at the role of managers and management practices. Indeed, it appears as though the rise of the shareholder primacy ethos, as taught in business schools, has reduced any tendency toward rent-sharing with workers. Following the guidance of economist Milton Friedman, who proclaimed “the social responsibility of businesses is to increase profits,” business school philosophy tends to view workers as costs rather than stakeholders.
For example, Daron Acemoglu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Alex He of the University of Maryland, and Daniel le Maire of the University of Copenhagen investigate how the rising number of managers with business degrees affects wages within workplaces in both the United States and Denmark—a research strategy that isolates policy and institutional landscapes across two different countries. The authors find that a greater proportion of managers with business degrees is associated with lower worker wages.
Acemoglu, He, and le Maire also are able to causally estimate this impact by looking at scenarios in which there is a retirement or death and a manager without a business degree is replaced by another person with a business degree. In the United States, the authors find that the appointment of a manager with a business degree results in a 6 percent decline in wages in the following 5 years. The authors estimate that these dynamics explain 15 percent of the slowdown in wage growth and 20 percent of the decline in the labor share in the United States since 1980.
What’s more, the increasing preponderance of managers with business degrees is not associated with higher firm output or productivity.
Policy proposals to return bargaining power to workers and foster broadly shared economic growth
Most evidence shows that efforts to maximize shareholder value do not just hurt workers’ labor market outcomes and lead to an increase in economic inequality, but also do little to increase firm profitability. Further, research suggests the shift toward shareholder primacy is a drag on economic growth. In Equitable Growth-funded research, for example, Florian Ederer of Yale University and Bruno Pellegrino of the University of Maryland find that common ownership—an ownership arrangement where a few institutional investors hold investment positions in a number of competing firms—reduces competition between firms, similar to monopolization, and decreases overall economic welfare across the U.S. economy.
The promise of broadly shared growth in a market-based economy can only be realized in a legal, economic, and institutional context that supports worker power to offset the inefficient tendency toward inequality and wealth-hoarding under financial capitalism. In the current environment of shareholder primacy, research shows that these tendencies result in declining wages, deadweight loss, and a distorted distribution of economic value.
Measures to reinforce countervailing worker power include policies that will restore the strength and presence of unions in the United States. The decline of unions is associated with a variety of deleterious impacts for the U.S. economy. Reforming labor law to make worker organizing easier—such as provisions in the Protecting the Right to Organize, or PRO, Act that protect the right to strike, ensure union elections are fair, and make it harder for companies to misclassify their workers as independent contractors—would help restore union density.
Another effective measure is to increase worker and union representation on corporate boards. Research by Simon Jäger of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Benjamin Schoefer of the University of California, Berkeley, and Jörg Heining of the German Institute for Employment Research finds that so-called co-determination—or when workers have secured spots on company boards—does not diminish firm performance but does, in fact, diminish the likelihood that a firm will outsource work, without impacting wage levels.
Sectoral bargaining, where multiemployer groups bargain with unions for an entire employment sector in a specific location, and wage boards that include union representation would also provide a much-needed counterbalance to corporate strategies that push managers to cut wages and exploit workers.
Another piece of the puzzle for restoring balance in the economy and ensuring robust, broadly shared growth is reforms that diminish the exploitative power of finance. This would set the U.S. economy on a path toward a system of so-called stakeholder capitalism, in which corporate strategy is reoriented toward the interests of all relevant stakeholders, including workers, suppliers, and local communities.
To accomplish these goals, limiting stock buybacks and establishing board fiduciary duty to stakeholders would help reshape corporate governance away from shareholder primacy. This, in turn, may help ensure that workers can share in the value they create, as well as offset the potential for negative externalities, such as environmental costs.
These proposals would go a long way to fostering equitable economic growth in the United States by boosting worker power and shifting corporate strategies away from policies that center shareholder primacy.
On September 2, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data on the U.S. labor market during the month of August. Below are five graphs compiled by Equitable Growth staff highlighting important trends in the data.
Total nonfarm employment rose by 315,000 in August, and the employment rate for prime-age workers increased to 80.3 percent.
Private-sector employment continued to rise in August, while public-sector employment has recovered more slowly and remains below pre-pandemic levels.
The unemployment rate increased to 3.7 percent in August and remains higher for Black workers (6.4 percent) and Latino workers (4.5 percent), compared to White workers (3.2 percent) and Asian American workers (2.8 percent).
Employment in many sectors is now back to or surpassing pre-pandemic levels, including construction, retail, and educational services, but employment in leisure and hospitality has yet to recover.
The unemployment rate rose to 6.2 percent for workers with less than a high school degree and 4.2 percent for high school graduates, but is just 2.9 percent for workers with some college and 1.9 percent for college graduates.
Over the past few months, the U.S. labor market continued its strong recovery from the initial shock delivered by the COVID-19 crisis, reaching pre-pandemic levels of nonfarm payrolls in July. When the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest Employment Situation Summary in early August, these labor market data show that the U.S. economy added an average of 437,000 jobs in the 3 months between April and July, up from an average of 384,000 jobs added between March and June.
Overall, the pace of job growth has slowed down from earlier in the recovery, but it remains substantially faster than in the tight, pre-pandemic labor market of 2019. (See Figure 1.)
Figure 1
This Friday, September 2, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release labor market data for the month of August. While the overall pace of employment growth will likely continue to slow down, most metrics reflect that this has already been an exceptionally quick recovery. Despite the size of the COVID-19 shock, nonfarm payrolls fully bounced back in just more than 2 years, whereas it took the U.S. economy more than 6 years to get back to pre-crisis employment levels after the Great Recession of 2007–2009.
The national unemployment rate is also back to its pre-pandemic rate, though jobless rates are widely different between racial and ethnic groups. As an exceptionally persistent feature of the U.S. labor market, the unemployment rate of Black workers is about twice as high as the unemployment rate of White workers. (See Figure 2.)
Figure 2
Nonfarm payrolls have now fully recovered from the COVID-19 recession, but questions remain about the current state of the U.S. labor market
Statistical quirks and discrepancies between the two surveys that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to prepare the monthly jobs report—the household survey and the establishment survey—make it difficult to get a precise snapshot of just how hot the U.S. labor market is right now. According to the household survey, there were about 168,000 fewer people employed in July 2022 than in March 2022. According to the establishment survey, however, the U.S. economy added 1.6 million jobs in the same period.
The household survey, or the Current Population Survey, asks adults ages 16 and over questions about their labor force status. It uses a definition of employment that includes agricultural workers, self-employed workers, workers in private households, and workers on unpaid leave from their jobs. This survey is used to report statistics, such as the unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, and the employment-to-population ratio, and also reports demographic information, including gender, race, ethnicity, age, marital status, and level of formal education.
The establishment survey, or the Current Employment Statistics, asks U.S. firms about the employees on their payrolls. Unlike the household survey, the establishment survey does not count the unincorporated self-employed, private household workers, or agricultural workers. It does, however, count payroll employees who might be younger than 16 years old. And because its definition of employment includes workers who received pay in the pay period the survey was conducted, workers with more than one job can be double counted. The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the establishment survey to report both aggregate and industry-level job growth, as well as average earnings, hours of work, and overtime hours.
While the two surveys track each other fairly well in the long run, occasionally they diverge. During the 2001 recession and its immediate aftermath, for example, the household survey reported fewer job losses and a much faster recovery than the establishment survey, in part because the establishment survey was missing job gains among the self-employed.
Indeed, Katherine Abraham and John Haltiwanger at the University of Maryland and Kristin Sandusky and James Spletzer at the U.S. Census Bureau show that misclassification, reporting errors, and fluctuations in the business cycle have different effects on the two surveys. For example, the team of economists finds that when the U.S. economy is in an expansion, employment in the establishment survey tends to increase relative to employment in the household survey. They propose that a possible driver of this trend is that as the economy picks up, employers might be more likely to hire additional workers for short-term payroll jobs—positions that are less likely to be reported by household survey respondents. In economic downturns, however, transitions to self-employment become more likely as an alternative to unemployment in the absence of wage work, which could help explain why employment in the household survey tends to drop less during, and recover faster in the immediate aftermath, of recessions.
Though it is too early to tell, the current divergence in the establishment and household surveys could be explained by a number of factors. One is that the U.S. economy is expanding, and the establishment survey and the household survey are following the cyclical pattern proposed by Abraham, Haltiwanger, Sandusky, and Spletzer. Another is volatility in the number of COVID-related unpaid absences. Yet another possible explanation is a pick-up in immigration, as proposed by economic analyst Joseph Politano.
The data are also subject to change. In January 2023, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the final revisions to the establishment survey data published in 2022—revisions that are based on population counts from administrative records and that will likely shrink the discrepancies between the two surveys. In the meantime, it will be important to follow both surveys closely. In this analysis, we use both the establishment survey and the household survey, and include 3-month moving averages to smooth out volatility in the monthly labor market data.
In the household survey, important labor force measures have yet to recover to their pre-pandemic levels
Even as important topline statistics, such as nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, are now back to where they were in February 2020, a few important metrics have yet to recover. Take the labor force participation rate, which captures the percent of adults ages 16 and over who are employed or actively looking for a job. This statistic reflects important information about the labor market, since it speaks not only about the share of the U.S. population that is employed but also about the number of workers wanting and available to take a job.
The labor force participation rate, BLS data show, saw an important decline as the coronavirus hit U.S. shores in early 2020 and has made little progress over the past 2 years. Indeed, since the summer of 2020, it has zig-zagged between 61.4 percent and 62.4 percent—or at least a full percentage point below its February 2020 rate.
An analysis by The Brookings Institution finds that the decline in the labor force participation rate is greatest among those between the ages of 55 and 65, and is likely a feature of pandemic-driven shift in retirements, continued risk of infection, and disability stemming from COVID-19. But the labor force participation rate also has declined among those between the ages of 25 and 54—a group economists call the “prime-age” population. Indeed, caregiving responsibilities and health issues seem to be factors keeping younger workers’ participation in the labor force down. (See Figure 3.)
Figure 3
A less-than-full rebound in the labor force participation rate could also be related to longer-term trends, as neither the labor force participation rate nor the employment-to-population ratio have returned to their early 2000s highs. Researchers found, for example, that extended schooling, the aging of the U.S. population, and a decline in the participation of workers without a college degree are all holding back the country’s labor force participation rate. In addition, when analyzing labor policies across the developed-economy members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a team of economists found that little access to policies such as parental leave is leading to a decline in women’s labor force participation relative to peer countries.
Disparities in employment outcomes by race, gender, and ethnicity tell a complicated story about which groups are benefiting most from this recovery
At the onset of the COVID-19 recession, workers of color in general, and women of color in particular, experienced the deepest declines in employment. Latina workers, who are overrepresented in low-wage and service occupations and industries, such as leisure and hospitality, experienced a greater decline in employment than any other group. Black women’s high attachment to the labor force and overrepresentation in hard-hit service and in-person occupations also made this group of workers especially vulnerable to job losses.
In addition, there is evidence that even when accounting for occupational distribution and a number of demographic characteristics, Black and Latina women were more likely to lose their jobs at the onset of the pandemic. Over the past few months, however, employment growth among men and women of color outpaced the employment growth of their White counterparts. Though women continue to see slower job growth than men, more Black men workers and Latino workers are employed now than in February 2020. (See Figure 4.)
Figure 4
Indeed, these past 4 months of labor market data suggest that workers of color, most notably Black men workers, might be starting to experience important gains amid the strong recovery—a trend that is consistent with research finding that economic expansions and tight labor markets can narrow racial divides in a number of employment outcomes.
Labor market data show job growth is strong in many industries, but some parts of the U.S. economy are lagging behind
Between April and July of this year, three of the largest industries in the U.S. economy led the way in terms of sheer employment gains. Over those 3 months, the educational and health services industry added 309,000 jobs, the professional and business services industry added 249,000 jobs, and the leisure and hospitality industry added 239,000 jobs. Yet the other giant of the U.S. economy—retail trade—saw no increase in employment between April and July, as excess merchandise and lower-than-expected demand put the brakes on the industry’s job growth. (See Figure 6.)
Figure 6
Throughout the economic recovery and relative to the U.S. economy’s pre-pandemic size, the transportation and warehousing industry has grown more than any other major U.S. sector. Since February 2020—the last month prior to the onset of the COVID-19 recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research—transportation and warehousing added 745,000 additional jobs and grew almost 13 percent.
This expansion is, in large part, an outcome of the boom in e-commerce sparked by the pandemic. The professional and business services industry, as well as the information industry, are now also well above their pre-pandemic employment levels. (See Figure 7.)
Figure 7
But some sectors of the U.S. economy are experiencing slower recoveries. Employment in the mining and logging industry, which encompasses sectors such as oil and gas extraction and coal mining, is still more than 7 percent below its February 2020 level. While the utilities sector is not far from its pre-pandemic employment, it has seen almost no net job gains over the past year.
Public-sector employment also is recovering substantially more slowly than private-sector employment. For instance, though it made some important gains between April and July, there are almost 300,000 jobs missing from local government education—a part of the U.S. economy where stress, low satisfaction, and a record-high pay penalty are putting the brakes on a full bounce back.
Timely policy action on job quality and social infrastructure are necessary for the U.S. economic recovery to be sustainable and broadly shared
Even when accounting for the recent discrepancies between the household and establishment surveys produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the jobs recovery in the United States from the COVID-19 recession has been exceptionally fast. For the labor market to deliver gains that will not evaporate when the next business cycle turns, however, policymakers and government agencies need to ensure that the positions being created now consist of well-paid, high-quality jobs. For instance, the large number of jobs added in the transportation and warehousing sector will fail to provide economic security for workers if persistent job-qualityissues and the prevalence of employee misclassification in the industry is not addressed.
As new labor market data are published over the next several months, a clearer picture will emerge of the state of the U.S. labor market and the U.S. economy in 2022. Whichever direction they are headed, it will be important for policymakers to make sure workers can effectively bargain for sustained improvements in pay and working conditions, and that economic security supports are in place well before they are needed.
Every month the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on hiring, firing, and other labor market flows from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as JOLTS. Today, the BLS released the latest data for July 2022. This report doesn’t get as much attention as the monthly Employment Situation Report, but it contains useful information about the state of the U.S. labor market. Below are a few key graphs using data from the report.
The quits rate decreased slightly from 2.8 percent to 2.7 percent, but remains above historical norms for economic expansions.
The vacancy yield has plateaued in recent months at low levels of hires per job opening, with each indicator holding steady in July.
The ratio of unemployed workers per job opening remains well below 1-to-1, decreasing from 0.53 in June 2022 to 0.50 in July 2022.
The Beveridge Curve reflects the higher-than-typical job openings rate of 6.9 percent, compared to the low unemployment rate of 3.5 percent.
Quits are particularly elevated, compared to their pre-pandemic levels, in manufacturing and construction, among other industries.
The Washington Center for Equitable Growth today announced its slate of 2022 grantees. More than $1 million in funding will be dispersed to 42 scholars from economics and other social science disciplines to deepen our understanding of how inequality affects economic growth and stability.
This is Equitable Growth’s ninth competitive grant cycle since our founding in 2013. Over that time, we have distributed close to $9 million to nearly 350 grantees at U.S. colleges and universities. Grant recipients range from Ph.D. students to some of nation’s most established academics.
“Each and every one of our grantees plays a critical role in deepening our understanding of the economy’s past and present, as well as informing how we can build a more equitable economy for tomorrow,” said Kate Bahn, Equitable Growth’s chief economist and director of labor market policy.
The grant awards emphasize Equitable Growth’s commitment to funding cutting-edge research that addresses pressing policy concerns and will inform the policy debate in the months and years to come. As Jonathan Fisher, Equitable Growth’s research advisor, said, “Year after year, our grantees produce creative, cutting-edge data that help shape the answers to our most pressing economic policy questions. Our 2022 cohort embodies this tradition of innovation, rigor, and excellence, and we are thrilled to welcome them into our academic network.”
Equitable Growth’s funding is guided by four channels through which economic growth is produced and distributed. They are:
Macroeconomics, including the effects of monetary, fiscal, and tax policy on inequality and growth
Human capital and well-being, including the effect of economic inequality on the development of human potential
The labor market, including the effect of inequality on the smooth functioning of the labor market and the distribution of the gains from labor
Market structure, including the existence and causes of increased concentration, consequences for growth, and effectiveness of policy tools to address it
A key focus of this year’s Request for Proposals across all four categories was the production of innovative new data resources. Specifically:
Johnnie Kallas, a Ph.D. student at Cornell University, seeks to fill an important gap in the existing research on the labor market: the undercounting of strikes. Kallas will collect data on all strikes in the United States, regardless of size, duration, or unionization status, and make the data accessible in an interactive map, thus extending our knowledge of the quantity and effectiveness of strikes.
Mario Small of Columbia University will use a qualitative approach to explore low-income borrowers’ use of payday loans in states that have restrictions on such lenders and those that do not to better understand the utility of such payday loans. This qualitative approach will help identify new lines of research and provide insights for policymakers on an issue where existing research is inconclusive.
Equitable Growth also deepened its commitment to support the study of the role that race and ethnicity play in inequality in the United States. The 2022 RFP included a call for research that directly examines structural racism, racial stratification, and policy solutions that lead to strong, broadly shared U.S. economic growth. Funded projects include:
Tridevi Chakma, a Ph.D. student at Harvard University, will examine racial disparities in heat exposure, linking residential segregation, migration patterns, and local policy to determine how structural racism is “built into physical infrastructure in cities.”
Several projects will study how inequality may impact overall productivity and growth, how monetary policy affects levels of inequality, and how shocks propagate throughout the economy. They include:
Natalie Duncombe and Nisha Chikhale, both Ph.D. students at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, will study the aggregate costs of workplace sexual harassment, including the effect on economic growth and gender wage inequality. Using data from Denmark, the researchers will measure how sexual harassment impacts productivity, the accumulation of human capital, and the allocation of talent, as well as subsequent effects on output, wage inequality, and spillover effects to colleagues at the same firm.
Several projects will examine how U.S. economic growth is affected by the care economy, as well as other aspects of social infrastructure and their links to inequality. Specifically:
The tech industry is also at the center of several funded projects in 2022, which seek to explore how this important sector affects the overall U.S. economy and U.S. labor market. Specifically:
Two other grants will explore various aspects of market structure and its effects on U.S. economic growth and its distribution among the population, as well as the relationship between competition, inequality, and growth. They are:
Gabriel Unger of Stanford University, Xavier Jaravel of the London School of Economics, and Erick Sager at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will detail how market power affects prices across the U.S. economy, rather than focus on one sector in particular. They will use microdata from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to explore the link between market concentration and mark-ups, as well as how import cost shocks may affect prices for consumers.
Tarikua Erda, a Ph.D. student at Columbia University, will examine the impact of natural disasters on small businesses, and whether those effects differ based on the demographics and socioeconomic status of the affected entrepreneurs, the type of businesses they run, and the competitive environment and existing market structure in which they operate.
Three grants were awarded to researchers studying how inequality affects the U.S. labor market, the effects of workplace organization, and the impacts of discrimination in the labor market. Specifically:
Adam Dean of George Washington University, Atheendar Venkataramani of the University of Pennsylvania, and Jamie McCallum of Middlebury College are continuing their work on nursing home unionization and COVID-19 preparedness. The team will use their proprietary dataset to determine the impact of unionization on health and injury outcomes, as well as racial disparities, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Marina Gorzig of St. Catherine University, Randall Akee of the University of California, Los Angeles, D.L. Feir of the University of Victoria, and Samuel Myers of the University of Minnesota will explore if the causes of so-called deaths of despair are different for different groups. They will study if an influx of White men on or near Native lands due to fracking leads to increased human trafficking rates among Native American women and girls, and whether that, in turn, contributes to the increase in deaths of despair for Native women and girls. Fundamentally, this research explores if economic growth has profoundly unequal effects for different groups.
Ph.D. student Adrienne Jones at Duke University will examine how nonwork policies affect work opportunities. Specifically, she will study how driver’s license suspensions create barriers to work and increase financial hardship, using data from North Carolina on low-income workers whose license has been suspended as a result of Failure to Comply or Failure to Appear policies and who have little access to other means of transportation.
Equitable Growth is grateful to the Russell Sage Foundation for co-funding this grant cycle. This is the fifth grant cycle in which we have cooperated with the Russell Sage Foundation on our shared goal of supporting innovative research on the factors contributing to economic inequalities in the United States and the effect of those inequalities on economic outcomes. We are also grateful to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for their continued generous support of research on economic mobility and access to opportunity in the United States.
This year’s remarkable group of grantees were part of a large pool of applicants who responded to the 2022 Request for Proposals, and were selected in an extremely competitive process that includes in-depth review by staff and a panel of external academic experts, as well as final approval by Equitable Growth’s Steering Committee. We congratulate the grantees and would like to thank all of this year’s applicants for their hard work and dedication to exploring the consequences of inequality on strong, stable, and broad-based economic growth.
In addition to dealing with rising inflationary pressures, the Inflation Reduction Act will help combat persistent and growing economic inequality in the United States. Over the past five decades, inequality soared while growth stalled. Despite promises to the contrary, the old prescription of tax cuts for the rich and reduced public investment are not working for U.S. workers and their families. (See Figure 1.)
Figure 1
This wide and growing income divide became painfully clear amid the COVID-19 pandemic, which immediately exacerbated longstanding economic divides, especially by race and gender. The federal government’s decisive action during the pandemic, especially the enactment of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security, or CARES, Act in 2020 and American Rescue Plan in 2021, helped ensure a quicker and more equitable recovery than in the past. Yet neither law thoroughly addressed the long-term economic challenges posed by economic inequality.
The Inflation Reduction Act is a critical next step. The legislation will make long-overdue investments in lowering prescription drug prices and making health insurance premiums more affordable. But the largest benefit is its actions to mitigate climate change—which, the evidence shows, will pay long-term dividends in the form of strong, stable, and broadly shared growth. Key climate provisions include:
A tax credit for low- and middle-income Americans to buy used and new electric vehicles
Various rebates, credits, and grants to make homes more energy efficient
Support for the domestic manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries
An overarching focus on ensuring marginalized communities benefit from the transition to a clean economy
All of these investments are fully paid for—and then some—by increased taxes on megacorporations, the wealthy, and tax evaders at the top of the income distribution. Equitable Growth grantees Daniel Reck at the London School of Economics, Max Risch at Carnegie Mellon University, and Gabriel Zucman at the University of California, Berkeley recently documented widespread tax evasion at the tippy top of the income ladder in the United States. They also estimate that more effective tax enforcement of the top 1 percent of income earners could yield an additional $175 billion in previously foregone federal tax revenue per year.
The Inflation Reduction Act enables the IRS to go after this giant unpaid tax bill of the wealthiest among us to reduce the federal budget deficit and pay for the investments needed to tame inflation and build a more equitable, and thus much stronger, economy. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office conservatively estimates that providing these new resources to the IRS will result in $204 billion in gross revenue over 10 years.
The strong evidence base behind both the investment and revenue components of the bill is one reason former governmentofficials, budget experts, and academic economists—including seven Nobel laureates in economics and five John Bates Clark medalists—all endorsed the bill. And indeed, it’s clear that empirical economic evidence played a decisive role in the negotiations around the Inflation Reduction Act. It was economists who pushed back on the faulty logic that raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations or making long-term, high-return investments would exacerbate inflation—none of which is supported by the evidence.
Critics of the legislation point to the American Rescue Plan, which they mischaracterize as the sole cause of rising inflation, to argue that more investments will lead to more inflation. Yet they conveniently fail to note that the American Rescue Plan and its predecessor, the CARES Act, helped to lay the groundwork for a robust recovery from the pandemic-induced recession, with 2021 growth in Gross Domestic Product and job creation both hitting levels not experienced by the United States in decades.
To be sure, pent-up demand soared among U.S. consumers, many of whom were registering the strongest wage gains in decades just as public health measures to fight the pandemic—in the form of the new vaccines and booster shots—enabled them to spend more. But the largest root causes of the latest bout of inflation are constrained global supply chains and soaring global energy prices brought about mostly by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February.
Of course, the Inflation Reduction Act is not perfect. It notably left out many evidence-based policies that would have spurred more equitable growth and helped combat current price pressures. Perhaps most disappointing is the lack of investment in critical social infrastructure, such as child care, home- and community-based services and supports for older adults and people with disabilities, paid leave, an expanded Child Tax Credit, and universal pre-Kindergarten. The United States is woefully behind the rest of the world on these policies, which is one reason female labor force participation has stalled or even regressed in recent years. (See Figure 2.)
Figure 2
Supporting families and caregivers would also increase the size of the U.S. workforce and the overall output potential of the U.S. economy, helping to address current supply constraints that are driving up prices and hampering growth.
Until policymakers in Washington enact paid family and medical leave, paid sick leave, universal pre-Kindergarten, and public child care and elder care, the United States won’t have the kind of equitable economy that powers more sustainable economic growth that U.S. workers and their families deserve.
Income support programs, such as Unemployment Insurance and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, are powerful tools to deploy when the threat of recession looms and unemployment climbs. By providing income replacement to people experiencing job and income losses, these programs serve as automatic stabilizers for the broader U.S. economy and stop unemployment from spreading contagiously, blunting the pain of recessions.
Yet the United States has systematically disinvested in its system of income supports over the past several decades. This creates obstacles for workers to access programs or even understand eligibility rules, and results in low benefit levels for those who do figure out the system.
To weather the next economic crisis, and the ones after that, policymakers in the United States need to permanently strengthen the U.S. system of income supports. This column details why income supports are essential, especially during economic downturns, how the currently weak income support infrastructure harms workers, and why proactive solutions are better for stable and broad-based economic growth.
Income supports are essential, especially during economic downturns
During recessions, the U.S. system of income supports—composed of programs such as Unemployment Insurance, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and other programs described in the Text Box above—play two main roles. First, income supports help workers and families who experience temporary drops in income to make ends meet.
Equally importantly, they automatically stabilize the macroeconomy by maintaining spending and consumption levels despite higher unemployment rates. This means income supports inject more income into the U.S. economy as increasing numbers of people access them—without any action needed from lawmakers.
Without income supports, workers who lose their jobs also lose income. As a result, they cut back on spending, which means businesses in their communities lose revenue, which, in turn, may lead to further layoffs. Income support programs stop this vicious recessionary cycle. For every dollar the government expends on Unemployment Insurance, for instance, at least $1.70 circulates through the U.S. economy. Likewise, for every dollar the government expends on SNAP supports in a slow economy, $1.54 circulates through the economy. As these dollars flow through the broader economy, businesses maintain their profit margins and do not need to lay off more employees, quelling the recession.
The U.S. income-support system is weak, hampering its efficacy in countering recessions
Despite its importance, the income support system in the United States is weak. For income support programs to effectively combat recessions, they must have four key characteristics:
Eligibility criteria should be inclusive, so that the program extends to as many people as possible who are likely to spend the income they receive.
Application and eligibility verification processes should be simple, so that people can enroll quickly and are not deterred from participating in the program.
Benefit amounts should be calibrated to facilitate the maximum amount of spending: high enough to meet the needs of program participants, but not so high that participants will save funds instead of spending them.
Benefit duration should last long enough to meet the needs of participants until the economic outlook improves.
In other words, for income support programs to be effective countercyclical tools, they must be easily accessible to people who are in need of income, and they must provide enough income to meet the needs of program participants for as long as they need them.
Unfortunately, none of the programs in the U.S. income support system meet all four criteria. Looking across the wide range of income support programs, most are only available to specific subpopulations, such as people with disabilities, older adults, or families with children. Because these programs are so specifically targeted, they are not well-equipped to reach the broader group of people who do not have enough income to meet their basic needs and thus would be likely to spend the resources. This hinders the system’s ability to stabilize the macroeconomy.
Beyond narrow target populations, income support programs in the United States typically have onerous eligibility criteria. Workers can lose eligibility for the Supplemental Security Income program by getting married if their spouse’s income exceeds eligibility limits. Applicants can be deemed ineligible for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program if their work hours fall below 80 hours per month or if their family keeps a rainy day fund that exceeds $2,500 when combined with other household resources. Having earnings reported on a 1099 tax form instead of a W-2 can render a worker ineligible for Unemployment Insurance.
Not only do complex eligibility criteria restrict the number of people who can access benefits, but they also deter eligible people from accessing the support they need. For instance, 1 in 3 people who are eligible for the Earned Income Tax Credit believe themselves to be ineligible.
And even if workers do qualify for benefits, most face burdensome applications and processes to maintain proof of eligibility. Initial applications often have confusing questions, require extensive documentation, and are time-consuming to complete. Even after initial eligibility is achieved, participants must recertify regularly to continue receiving benefits. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, for example, requires periodic recertification, for which program participants must complete an interview in addition to filling out paperwork and providing documentation. Unemployment Insurance recertification happens weekly or biweekly and can be completed by phone or online, but jammedphonelines and crashed websites can make this an impossible task.
Then, for those workers who successfully navigate these hurdles, overall benefit levels are quite low. In every U.S. state, for instance, Unemployment Insurance benefit levels are far too low to cover one’s living expenses. (See Figure 1.)
Figure 1
Similarly, in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, benefit levels for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, the program tasked with serving low-income families, fall well below the federal poverty line. In no state do they exceed 60 percent of the already-low federal poverty line, with the median benefit for a family of three being $498 per month. SNAP benefit levels are higher, with the average food assistance benefit to a family of three being $520 per month, but these dollars can only be spent on food. Supplemental Security Income provides $841 per month to low-income individuals with disabilities and $1,261 to couples. Even Social Security retirement benefits are low, at an average of $1,614 per month, or only 37 percent of the average retiree’s past earnings.
Simply put, no permanent income support program in the United States provides enough income to support a household’s full consumption needs. And even when U.S. families access multiple income support programs—for example, if they receive both TANF and SNAP benefits—they still struggle to make ends meet.
Many income support benefits also are time-limited. In many states, for example, unemployment benefits expire after just 16 weeks even if a worker’s employment status has not changed. Though there is a policy mechanism at the federal level designed to automatically extend the duration of UI benefits in tough economic times, it is broken.
Similarly, there are lifetime limits on access to Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. In most states, families can only access the benefit for 5 years, but it is even less in 12 states. These time limits mean that even if people are likely to spend the income that they would receive through these programs, and thus stabilize the economy, the programs cannot serve many of them.
Across the U.S. system of income supports, eligibility criteria and application procedures screen people out of accessing benefits, and low benefit amounts and short durations put unnecessarily low caps on the amount of resources that can flow through these programs and stabilize the economy. In some cases, these barriers are so strong that they prevent the program from serving as an automatic stabilizer at all. Rigorous research did not uncover any statistically significant increase in TANF participation during the Great Recession, a pattern which appears to have repeated itself during the COVID-19 recession.
Relying on one-off solutions to temper recessions is a dangerous strategy
In the absence of a well-functioning, countercyclically responsive system of income supports, people in the United States must rely on one-time fixes enacted by policymakers in order to prevent and temper recessions using fiscal policy tools. Relying on these one-off solutions is an inefficient, and even dangerous, strategy. Not only does legislation take time to enact, delaying a response that should be immediate, but it also may be poorly targeted or even shelved entirely due to political considerations.
One of the most common tools used by legislators to stimulate or stabilize the economy is one-time cash payments to all households with income below a specified level, often referred to as “stimulus checks” or “economic impact payments.” During the Great Recession of 2007–2009, for example, households with incomes ranging from $3,000 to $150,000 were eligible for payments of up to $1,200 for joint filers, plus $300 for each dependent. During the COVID-19 recession, three rounds of economic impact payments were issued, with maximum benefit levels ranging from $1,200 to $2,800, plus $500 to $1,400 per child, for households with incomes ranging from $1,200 to $150,000.
Overall, research suggests that one-time cash payments can help temper recessions. For every dollar spent on the first round of economic impact payments during the COVID-19 recession, for example, U.S. households spent between 11 cents and 66 cents. Yet stimulus checks are also less efficient than traditional income support programs, such as Unemployment Insurance and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Developed and administered quickly, one-time cash payments cannot be targeted to people who are likely to spend, rather than save, the payment. This is important because the macroeconomic benefits of maintaining consumption levels will not occur if income support is saved rather than spent.
By contrast, permanent income support programs target people who have lost income or who have very low incomes and thus typically are more likely to spend the income they receive from these programs. People who lose income from work are likely to spend income supports they receive both because of their circumstances and because demographic groups who are likely to lose income in economic downturns are also generally more likely to spend new income than other groups. This is perhaps because these groups of workers have lower levels of savings due to the same structural forces—such as discrimination in the labor market and educational institutions—that make them likely to lose work or wages. (See Figure 2.)
Figure 2
Yet, as described above, even the permanent income support programs that target people who are likely to spend income have serious flaws that dampen their ability to automatically stabilize the U.S. economy efficiently. To address these programs’ flaws, policymakers also typically rely on one-time solutions implemented during economic crises. During the Great Recession, Congress increased the duration of UI benefits in one-off extensions. And during the COVID-19 recession, Congress made radical, one-time changes—most prominently, by increasing the amount and duration of Unemployment Insurance and expanding its eligibility criteria, as well as enhancing the Child Tax Credit.
The political will to make these changes during the COVID-19 recession was unique and spurred by an unprecedented health crisis. Relying on political will, however, is a dangerous strategy. This is because political will may turn away from expanding income supports at moments when they are economically necessary tools.
One telling case in point: When political will shifted and the COVID-19 recession income support provisions began to expire, U.S. families suffered. The number of households in the United States that reported using credit cards and loans to make ends meet—a dangerous strategy for family economic security—increased when the temporary pandemic programs ended and left families with few options to pay their bills. (See Figure 3.)
Figure 3
Permanent solutions will equip us for the next recession—and the ones after that
There is no guarantee that political will in the United States will align with economic reality, allowing policymakers to implement one-off solutions when another recession hits. If no action is taken, then families will feel the pain. People of color and those with low levels of income and education will suffer disproportionately, which will ultimately undermine our ability to minimize the duration and severity of the next recession. (See Figure 4.)
Figure 4
In economic crisis after economic crisis, U.S. policymakers are left scrambling to fight political battles and implement one-time fixes to the income support system. As of yet, policymakers have not acted on the lessons from previous crises to permanently strengthen the U.S. system of income supports. As it stands, the permanent system of income supports in the United States is not up to the task. Weaknesses make these programs difficult to access and prevent them from providing adequate resources to meet the needs of U.S. families, hampering the ability of these important programs to automatically stabilize the macroeconomy when recession hits.
With the threat of a potential recession looming anew today, and with the memory of the most recent economic crisis fresh in the minds of policymakers and the public, now is an opportune time to strengthen the U.S. system of income supports to be prepared for the next crisis. By making eligibility criteria more inclusive, programs easier to access, and benefit amount high enough and duration long enough to meet the needs of program participants, the income support system can be ready to automatically stabilize the economy when economic contraction first begins.