Evolving worker and management attitudes toward labor organizations: The Equitable Growth context

NEW YORK CITY – MAY 5 2016: Striking Verizon workers gathered with members of other unions and labor leaders in front of Verizon’s Wall St headquarters.

Tomorrow, April 4, Alexander Hertel-Fernandez, a Washington Center for Equitable Growth grantee and assistant professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University, will present at an Equitable Growth seminar his new research examining worker and management preferences for specific aspects of labor organization. This research, based on original survey data, explores what workers want from labor organizations, including not only traditional unions but also alternatives that exist in other countries and are being discussed in the United States.

Research on why wages in the United States have been stagnant for several decades, how unions give workers negotiating power in labor markets, and how the decline in union membership has affected economic inequality has always been an important priority for Equitable Growth. In advance of tomorrow’s seminar, we have collected here a combination of working papers, columns, and other materials from our website that provide context for Hertel-Fernandez’s presentation.

In 2018, Equitable Growth hosted a seminar presentation by Suresh Naidu, associate professor of international and public affairs and economics at Columbia, on important new research he and his colleagues would soon publish on the relationship between union membership and economic inequality. In their working paper, “Unions and Inequality Over the Twentieth Century: New Evidence from Survey Data,” Naidu, Henry S. Farber and Ilyana Kuziemko of Princeton University, and Daniel Herbst, now of the University of Arizona, concluded that extensive survey data over a long sample period suggests that unions have had a significant, equalizing effect on the income distribution.

In 2015, “The steep path forward for unionization,” by former Equitable Growth Senior Policy Analyst Nick Bunker, discussed the impact of the decline of unionization on economic inequality and the prospects of a rebound for unions. Relying on a number of research papers, it noted that a resurgence would likely reduce inequality, but that the path forward would be steep. Looking at history, it suggested that if a resurgence were to occur, it would likely be the result of a sudden, surprising development in the economy.

In 2017, in “The challenging and continuing slide in U.S. unionization rates,” Equitable Growth Executive Director and chief economist Heather Boushey reported on annual Bureau of Labor Statistics data pointing to a continuing decline in U.S. union membership. In 24 years, union membership among workers had been nearly halved. She cited not only changes in the economy but also how difficult employers can and do make it to organize a union and deliver a first contract.

Also in 2017, former Equitable Growth Research Assistant Matt Markezich—in “Why is collective bargaining so difficult in the United States compared to its international peers?”—delved into the question of how union membership and coverage in the United States compare to those of other developed countries. As of 2016 (or the most recent data, depending on the country), the United States ranked next to last or dead last in union membership and coverage, which includes both union members and nonmembers covered by union contracts, among the member nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (See Figure 1.) Among the reasons for higher levels of union coverage in other countries are more union-friendly legal frameworks and, in some cases, the administration of social insurance by unions.

Figure 1

In “Understanding the importance of monopsony power in the U.S. labor market,” Equitable Growth economist Kate Bahn considered the potential fallout from the Supreme Court’s 2018 decision in Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees. She predicted that this landmark ruling could significantly weaken public-employee unions and, combined with the deterioration that had already occurred among private-sector union membership, further weaken workers’ bargaining power and contribute to monopsony. Some economists believe monopsony has played a significant role in wage stagnation in the U.S. economy.

Also in 2018, Equitable Growth published a working paper by Mark Stelzner of Connecticut College and Mark Paul of New College of Florida, in which they constructed an economic model to show how workers and employers interact in an economy where firms hold monopsony power (monopoly power for firms in the labor market). The paper, “How does market power affect wages? Monopsony and collective action in an institutional context,” showed that workers’ collective action and efficient contract bargaining could reduce firms’ power to extract rents by keeping wages low. In a separate column for Equitable Growth, Paul and Stelzner wrote that collective action has this impact because it neutralizes, to some degree, the wage-setting power of firms. They added, however, that unions’ ability to counteract firms’ monopsony power depends on the legal framework that is established by government and interpreted by the courts.

Finally, in 2017, as part of Equitable Growth’s In Conversation series, Heather Boushey sat down with David Weil, now the dean of the Heller School for Social Policy and Management at Brandeis University. They talked about Weil’s research on the fissured workplace, the influence of monopsony power, and the rise of interfirm inequality. “What’s driving inequality,” Weil said, “comes back to the fissured workplace. It comes from the consequence of shifting the wage-setting problem to all these other entities and kind of getting out of that fairness bind that employers otherwise have to deal with differently.”

The modern labor market is marked by fundamental and interrelated challenges such as monopsony, the fissured workplace, and reduced union membership—all of which tend to suppress wages. In helping us understand how workers’ and management’s attitudes toward labor organizations are evolving, Hertel-Fernandez’s presentation can help government, society, and, above all, workers and their families confront these changes and restore workers’ power to achieve the wage increases and working conditions they deserve.

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Economist Currie’s research on early childhood care and education highlights the need for a national childcare policy

Recent months have seen the blossoming of more concrete ideas for addressing the pressing problem of a lack of access to high-quality, affordable childcare and education—an issue that has not been treated as a national priority in recent decades. A growing body of new research is reshaping how we think about the importance of early childhood and highlights that quality, affordable childcare and education is not just good for families but also for the U.S. economy as a whole.

At the core of the problem are the costs of childcare, a huge burden on many families, especially in single-parent households. The average cost to provide center-based, licensed infant childcare is $1,230 per month—nearly a fifth of the median family’s income—and even more for high-quality childcare. In more than half the states, a year of childcare costs more than the average annual cost of public college tuition. And the rising costs aren’t explained by rising quality: A federal study found that only 10 percent of childcare in the United States was considered high quality. In an era of high income and wealth inequality, the steep costs shut out low- and middle-income families and block their children from fully developing their human capital, while those at the top have the resources to safeguard the best environment for their children.

Lack of access to affordable, high-quality childcare also is a problem for the U.S. economy as a whole. Research shows that rising childcare costs drive women out of the workforce, as parents come to depend more on informal childcare arrangements that are less reliable. Princeton University economist Janet Currie’s work in particular sheds light on another important aspect of the problem of high childcare costs—the importance of early childhood care and education for the children and their future outcomes. Our nation’s failure to deal with childcare means we miss out on a critical stage of human capital development, thereby depriving the United States of future workforce productivity.

Currie, a member of Equitable Growth’s Steering Committee, has made major contributions to shaping what we know about the role of childcare as a broader piece of an economic growth story. She is a pioneer in the field of human capital, known for her innovative research on public policy issues related to child health and well-being. In her work, Currie finds that early childhood programs—including both childcare and preschool—have significant short- and medium-term benefits, often larger for disadvantaged children. Research shows that small-scale model programs, such as the Perry Preschool Project and the Carolina Abecedarian Project, improve educational and earnings outcomes and reduce crime and the use of safety-net programs in later life.

There also is Currie’s research looking at the impact of larger-scale programs such as Head Start, the biggest federal experiment providing wrap-around childcare for disadvantaged children. Currie’s study with economists Eliana Garces, formerly at the European Commission, and Duncan Thomas at Duke University tracked children who were enrolled in Head Start many years after their participation and found lasting positive effects on educational outcomes and criminal behavior from the intervention, contradicting a series of studies that found immediate gains in test scores “fade out” in the early elementary school years.

Still, Head Start has fallen short of producing results on par with small-scale interventions such as the Perry Preschool Project because serving a relatively small number of children with intensive services delivered by well-trained staff hasn’t proven to be easily scalable. Amid a debate on the effectiveness of Head Start and how to best design the program, Currie and health economist Matthew Neidell at Columbia University looked “inside the black box” of Head Start, finding that the program participants had higher reading scores, especially those in poor counties and where Head Start spending was higher. Head Start programs that targeted funds toward services for children over other services, such as programs for parents or community development, also saw reduced behavioral problems and grade repetition among the children. More recent research supports Currie’s initial findings.

More broadly, Currie’s research has improved our understanding of early childhood and its impact on child and adult outcomes—a relatively new area of research for economists—showing that it matters for the U.S. economy. In a 2011 summary co-authored with Columbia University economist Douglas Almond, Currie lays out the research showing that the impacts of prenatal environments aren’t confined to health outcomes in adulthood, but also extend to economic outcomes such as the likelihood of being employed and the level of income earned, based on the late British epidemiologist David Barker’s idea that prenatal conditions may have lifelong impacts—the “fetal origins hypothesis.”

In a 2017 sequel to their first summary, Currie and Almond, with economist Valentina Duque at the University of Sydney, expanded their review to include the latest research on the postnatal early childhood environment, concluding that events in the first 5 years of a child’s life have significant long-term impacts on adult outcomes. Child and family characteristics measured when a child enters school are as important in explaining future outcomes as more traditional factors such as years of education. Currie found in an early paper that children’s test scores at age 7 explain 4 percent to 5 percent of the variation in adult employment and more than 20 percent of the variation in wages.

Childcare as a federal policy issue was largely relegated to a “welfare” issue after President Richard Nixon vetoed a 1971 bipartisan bill to create a universal childcare system. This also was about the time that women with children began joining the workforce in much greater numbers. Today, as the lack of access to affordable childcare creates near-universal stress on families’ work-life balance, policymakers are catching on to the urgency of the issue. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), who is running for the 2020 presidential nomination of her party, recently released a proposal to subsidize the cost of childcare to make it free for low-income families and cost no more than 7 percent of household income for all families.

And many states and localities have been expanding access to publicly funded pre-Kindergarten in recent years, though there is great variation in the scale and allocation of funds. Oklahoma’s program, which serves roughly 3- and 4-year-olds in the state, is implemented within the existing public-school district system, while other states such as New York use a “mixed-delivery model,” where community-based and school sites provide pre-Kindergarten services with a blend of public and private funding.

The bottom line: Research done by Currie and other economists highlights the importance of early childhood years for child well-being and future economic outcomes across the United States. Affordable, high-quality early childhood care and education is a critical need for families, as well as our future workforce. Policymakers should ensure that the renewed interest in early childhood care and learning is sustained and translated into well-designed and implemented programs.

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A judicial victory for pay transparency in the United States in the run-up to Women’s Equal Pay Day

Women’s Equal Pay Day tomorrow marks the day when women will have worked—three extra months—in order to earn an equivalent paycheck to what the average man earned in the prior year alone. It is a symbol of the continuing gender wage gap that hinders economic equality for millions of women in the U.S. workforce. Over the past few decades, various legislation has been introduced to promote pay equity such as increasing paid family leave, promoting apprenticeship programs in male-dominated fields, and protecting workers’ rights to unionize. Sociologist Sarah Jane Glynn’s report on gender wage inequality summarizes a majority of these measures and policy recommendations. Of these proposed policy measures, one in particular has recently earned a major win: pay transparency.

Measures undertaken to collect data on pay collection make that data transparent—such as those again being undertaken by the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission—and are oftentimes the only way to hold businesses accountable for pay discrepancies between groups of women and men, as well as white and nonwhite workers. That’s why, on Women’s Equal Pay Day, it’s important to consider the importance of a judge’s ruling last month that reinstated the collection of pay data by firms who report their employment practices to the EEOC to boost pay transparency.

Since 1996, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission has required companies with more than 100 employees to report the gender, racial, and ethnic breakdown of their employees through the EEO-1 report. In 2016, the Obama administration expanded these reporting requirements to include data for 12 pay bands for each of the EEO-1 job categories. This additional data requirement would subject employers to EEOC scrutiny or self-correct any gender pay inequities, as these data are not available to the public and thus can’t be accessed by employees. In 2017, President Donald Trump halted these expansions.

In July 2017, the Trump administration announced that it would not be requiring pay data in the next EEO-1 report, stating that there would need to be a review of the efficiency of collecting such data. But shortly after the halt, the National Women’s Law Center and other organizations filed a lawsuit against the Office of Management and Budget, stating that “employers can simply state they are an equal opportunity employer with little chance of being held accountable.” In addition, “the agencies charged with addressing workplace discrimination … could use this information to look for trends and strengthen enforcement efforts.”

On March 5, 2019, the judge presiding over this case ruled in favor of the National Women’s Law Center, ordering the EEOC to collect pay data in the next EEO-1 report. This win reinstates the pay-data-collection practices in the EEO-1 report, providing workers and employers with the information necessary to ensure more equitable wages.

The ruling could not have been more timely. Just one case in point: In a survey of employees at large technology firms, 60 percent of respondents said that their employer either banned or discouraged discussion of wages, which means workers are unable to determine themselves whether they are potentially receiving discriminatory pay. Yet, according to the National Labor Rights Act of 1935, it is illegal to ban discussions of wages in the workplace. The fact that companies can nonetheless prevent pay discussions in the workplace is an indication of why required reporting to the EEOC is so important to maintaining worker bargaining power and pay transparency.

As Equitable Growth has written before, there is evidence that increasing pay transparency leads to more equitable practices and may also boost productivity. Research shows that access to financial information about one’s employer leads to better pay outcomes and better information about pay practices in public-sector work and, in turn, leads to a less-unequal wage distribution. In addition to these positive monetary benefits for workers, pay transparency also may increase collaboration and productivity. Recent research by Ph.D. candidate in Industrial Organization Eric Sheller and Director of the Social/Personality Graduate Program at the University of Nebraska Omaha finds that employees both appreciate pay transparency and subsequently declare more organizational commitment.

But more research is needed to understand the impact of increased transparency on organizational pay practices and how this impacts gender and racial wage gaps. One of the reasons there is a dearth of research is that there are few examples of pay transparency that researchers can study. States and cities have begun their own efforts to collect pay data and implement pay transparency laws. In 2013, for example, the city of Boston launched an effort to collect and anonymize data from employers to understand the mechanics behind the gender wage gap in the city. Following this effort, Massachusetts in 2018 passed an Equal Pay Act that barred employers from banning salary discussions among employees, among other provisions.

In addition, the following states have passed similar measures to improve pay transparency and combat the gender wage gap: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Vermont, as well as the District of Columbia. Federal efforts to improve data on pay practices will increase our understanding of the importance of transparency for equitable pay.

These new pay transparency practices will not only address gender and racial wage gaps but also will increase productivity in the workplace, maintain worker retention, and contribute to economic growth when workers are paid fairly. With a number of states, and now the EEOC, leading this reform, chances are that Women’s Pay Day in the future will fall more and more close to the beginning of each year.

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Weekend reading: “Follow the wealth” edition

This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth published this week and the second is the work we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

Equitable Growth round-up

This week, Equitable Growth released a fact sheet on causes and consequences of the gender wage gap—as well as policy solutions to close the gap. This summary is based on a 2018 report for the Washington Center for Equitable Growth by sociologist Sarah Jane Glynn and a 2017 paper by Cornell University economists Francine Blau and Lawrence Kahn. Some of the major causes of the gap include occupational and industrial segregation, outright discrimination, deunionization, and educational disparities. The fact sheet proposes reforms to close this pay gap, including but not limited to pay data collection, universal paid leave, child care access, and affirmative action plans.

Equitable Growth grantee and University of Chicago economist Manasi Deshpande published her working paper “Disability and distress: The effect of disability programs on financial outcomes” with co-authors Tal Gross and Yalun Su in the Equitable Growth working paper series this week. Deshpande summarizes their paper in a column for Equitable Growth’s website. Their paper provides the first empirical evidence of the role of disability insurance programs in reducing financial distress.

In the most recent addition to Equitable Growth’s “Competitive Edge” blog on market competition and antitrust enforcement, Howard University law professor Andrew I. Gavil discussed how Section 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890 must be adjusted to address contemporary challenges in market concentration. While Gavil argues that historical references provide a framework for antitrust enforcement today, he concludes that the law must be updated to reflect the competitive challenges of today’s economy.

Equitable Growth grantee and Harvard Sociology Ph.D. candidate Robert Manduca this week delved into the data from his recent paper on how growing economic inequality in the United States contributes to economic disparities across regions. In addition to tracking how these regional disparities have increased over the past 40 years and noting that the rise of the super wealthy in a handful of metropolitan areas has been particularly responsible, Manduca concludes by advocating for investments in efforts to reduce inequality—both across the income distribution and across regions.

Equitable Growth Research Advisory Board member Janet Currie discussed the findings of a report she recently co-authored for the U.S. Congress on the state of child poverty in the United States and the best path forward for dramatically reducing it. On top of pointing out the contributions of existing social programs to keeping child poverty lower than it would otherwise be, Currie argues for several packages of evidence-backed investments in child health, education, income support, and other programs that have the potential to reduce child poverty by half over the next decade.

Equitable Growth Dissertation Scholar and The New School doctoral candidate in economics Kyle Moore highlighted some of the findings of his empirical research on the effects of economic disparities across race on health outcomes, especially for African Americans. Before concluding with directions for his future research, Moore discusses two preliminary findings of his work: notably, that older black Americans are more likely to face stress than their white counterparts, and that the combination of stressors and limited resources has a particularly negative impact on health outcomes. You can see a full recording of his seminar on this topic here.

In his weekly “Worthy Reads” column, University of California, Berkeley economist and Equitable Growth columnist Brad Delong highlights recent research and writing in economics from Equitable Growth and other economists. This week, Brad highlighted Equitable Growth’s recent report on net worth taxes authored by economist Greg Leiserson, myself, and research assistant Raksha Kopparam. He also points to analysis by Economic Policy Institute Director of Research Josh Bivens on the difficulties of predicting wage growth with measures of labor market slack.

Links from around the web

Brentin Mock discussed a new study from economists Dionissi Aliprantis and Daniel Carroll at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland on the historical and contemporary causes of the massive current levels of racial wealth inequality. The authors argue that this disparity is largely caused by racial income inequality and less so by historical factors. Nevertheless, Economic Policy Institute economist Valerie Wilson points out that closing the wage gap should be a part of a larger economic strategy to level the economic playing field for black workers. [citylab]

Loren Berlin at the Urban Institute published an interview this week with Ohio State University economist, Equitable Growth grantee, and executive director of the Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity Darrick Hamilton on the economics of shrinking the racial wealth gap. Specifically, Hamilton explains the rationale behind his proposal for baby bonds, or trusts set up by the federal government when a child is born and managed by the federal government until the child becomes a young adult. [next50]

In response to recent proposals for a net wealth tax and a higher upper rate in the income tax, Harvard University economist Larry Summers and University of Pennsylvania lawyer-economist Natasha Sarin published an op-ed arguing that closing loop-holes and broadening the tax base are the best ways to increase tax receipts from the mega-rich. Despite their core argument, Summers and Sarin agree that all these recent proposals are part of an important discussion on the best methods to use tax policy to reduce growing inequality and increase government revenues. [boston globe]

Friday Figure

Figure is from Equitable Growth’s, “We can cut child poverty in the United States in half in 10 years

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Brad DeLong: Worthy reads on equitable growth, March 22–28, 2019

Worthy reads from Equitable Growth:

  1. This week’s absolute must-read, from Greg Leiserson, Will McGrew, and Raksha Kopparam. It is excellent. I would note that it does not get much into the political economy of wealth taxes—that one goal of them is to persuade the wealthy to distribute their wealth and thus reduce the amount of control over society that they exercise. Read their “Net Worth Taxes: What They Are and How They Work,” in which they write: “Notably, a business does not pay tax on its assets. Instead, shareholders pay tax on the value of the business … The revenue potential of a net worth tax in the United States is large, even if applied only to the very wealthiest families. The wealthiest 1 percent of families holds $33 trillion in wealth, and the wealthiest 5 percent holds $57 trillion. The burden of a net worth tax would be highly progressive. The wealthiest 1 percent of families holds about 40 percent of all wealth … Taxes on wealth—including property taxes, net worth taxes, estate taxes, and capital gains taxes, among others—are ubiquitous in the developed countries that make up the … OECD … Assets have value because of the income (implicit or explicit) they are expected to generate. As such, taxing wealth through a net worth tax and taxing income from wealth through a tax on investment income can achieve similar ends.”
  2. Note this and note this well: The principal reason U.S. relative female labor-force participation is lagging behind OECD peer economies is that our society is markedly less friendly to women working outside the home than our peer societies are. Read Elisabeth Jacobs and Kate Bahn, “Women’s History Month: U.S. Women’s Labor Force Participation,” in which they write: “A change in direction for U.S. policies related to childcare and early education, along with a strong national paid leave policy for family leave could help to reverse the downward trend of U.S. women’s labor force participation and put it back on the same path that most other developed countries are on.”
  3. From 2016, this paper did not get the attention I believe it deserved: How higher labor standards affect how firms behave on the ground. This type of work is extremely valuable—indeed, essential to place statistical patterns in proper context—is difficult to do, and so needs to be highlighted more. Read T. William Lester, “Inside Monopsony: Employer Responses to Higher Labor Standards in the Full-Service Restaurant Industry,” in which he writes: “Employer responses to higher labor standards through a qualitative case comparison of the full service restaurant industry … San Francisco—where employers face the nation’s highest minimum wage, no tip credits, a pay-or-play health care mandate, and paid sick leave requirements—and … North Carolina’s Research Triangle region—where there are no locally-enacted labor standards … higher labor standards led to wage compression in San Francisco even while some employers continued to offer greater benefits to reduce turnover. Employers in San Francisco exhibit greater investment in finding better matches and tend to seek higher-skilled, more professional workers, rather than invest in formal in-house training. Finally, higher wage mandates in San Francisco have exacerbated the wage gap between front-of-house and back-of-house occupations—which correlate strongly with existing racial and ethnic divisions. Initial evidence shows that some employers have responded by radically restructuring industry compensation practices by adding service charges and in some cases eliminating tipping.”
  4. Somehow, I have not yet noted here the existence of Rodney Andrews, who is now—with Logan Hardy and Marcus Casey—merging the Raj Chetty and others’ Equality of Opportunity dataset with other information sources in what looks, to me, like a very promising line of research. Read Bradley Hardy, Rodney Andrews, Marcus Casey, and Trevon Logan, “The Historical Shadow of Segregation On Human Capital And Upward Mobility,” in which they write: “Regional differences in opportunity might be explained not only by contemporary characteristics but also by historical disparities. The researchers will merge the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) with Raj Chetty and others’ Equality of Opportunity dataset, and the Logan-Parman index of inequality.”

Worthy reads not from Equitable Growth:

  1. The old “secular stagnation” of the 1930s and 1940s was a fear that the world was approaching satiation with respect to things that it would be profitable to build. The new secular stagnation is much more a fear of growing monopoly power and a growing desire for safety. It is thus a very different thing—or, rather, two different things happening alongside each other. Read Emmanuel Farhi and Francois Gourio, “Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends,” in which they write: “Developed economies have experienced large declines in risk-free interest rates and lacklustre investment over the past 30 years, while the profitability of private capital has increased slightly. Using an extension of the neoclassical growth model, this column identifies what accounts for these developments. It finds that rising market power, rising unmeasured intangibles, and rising risk premia play a crucial role, over and above the traditional culprits of increasing savings supply and technological growth slowdown.”
  2. A clever take from The Economist, using the largest building in the world in Sichuan as a microcosm of the Chinese economy. Read “The Story of China’s Economy as Told Through the World’s Biggest Building: The Global Centre,” in which the magazine writes: “The world’s biggest building got off to a bad start. On the eve of its opening, Deng Hong, the man who built the mall-and-office complex, disappeared … swept up in a corruption investigation just before the building’s doors opened in 2013. The media focus shifted to his hubris and his wasteful, pharaonic venture. Inside, it had a massive waterpark with an artificial beach, an ice rink, a 15-screen cinema, a 1,000-room hotel, offices galore, two supersized malls, and its own fire brigade, but just a smattering of businesses and shoppers. It became a parable for the economy’s excesses and over-reliance on debt. Today, more than 5 years on, the story has taken a series of surprising turns. For one, the building is not a disaster. During the summer, the waterpark is crowded. The mall has come to life, a testament to the rise of the middle class. The offices are a cauldron of activity: 30,000 people work there in every industry imaginable, from app design to veterinary care. Mr. Deng has been released and is back in business, declaring last summer that he had a clean slate.”
  3. It is pretty clear that the post-2008 U.S. labor market is such that it totally deranged the unemployment rate as a meaningful measure of labor market slack. Read Josh Bivens, “Predicting Wage Growth with Measures of Labor Market Slack: It’s Complicated!,” in which he writes: “Why have wages grown so slowly in recent years despite relatively low unemployment rates? This puzzle has dominated economic commentary … Since 2008, the share of adults between the ages of 25 and 54 who are employed (or the ‘prime-age EPOP’) has predicted wage growth better than the unemployment rate. But even the prime-age EPOP has done a poor job at predicting wage growth since 2008, compared with both its own predictive power pre-2008 and the predictive power of the unemployment rate in earlier periods.”
  4. Marty Feldstein gained a nearly infinite bank of credit for being brave, honorable, and honest with respect to our fiscal policy choices in the early 1980s. But he is running his balance down rapidly. Over the past 2 years, Feldstein has argued sequentially that (a) there is no need to worry about Republicans’ enacting law to increase the debt because they won’t, (b) Republicans’ enacting law to increase the debt won’t matter because debt service will still fall as a share of Gross Domestic Product as the result of their policies, (c) debt service is about to rise rapidly because interest rates are going to go way up, and now (d) we must cut entitlements a lot in order to “avoid economic distress.” The best that can be said is that this shows extreme naivety about what Republican politicians do and gross inconsistency with respect to his vision of how the economy works. August 29, 2017: “The new legislation would … boost domestic corporate investment … Although the net tax changes may widen the budget deficit in the short term, the incentive effects of lower tax rates and the increased accumulation of capital will mean faster economic growth and higher real incomes, both of which will cause rising taxable incomes and lower long-term deficits … I am optimistic that a tax reform serving to increase capital formation and growth will be enacted, and that any resulting increase in the budget deficit will be only temporary.” November 27, 2017: “The economic benefits resulting from the corporate tax changes will outweigh the adverse effects of the increased debt.” February 27, 2018: “Long-term interest rates in the United States are rising, and are likely to continue heading up.” Now, read Martin Feldstein, “The Debt Crisis Is Coming Soon,” in which he writes: “The most dangerous domestic problem facing America’s federal government is the rapid growth of its budget deficit and national debt … Federal debt will probably surpass 100 percent much sooner than 2028. If discretionary spending increases, debt growth will jump to 100 percent even quicker. When America’s creditors at home and abroad realize this, they will push up the interest rate the U.S. government pays on its debt. That will mean still more growth in debt. … To avoid economic distress, the government either has to impose higher taxes or reduce future spending. Since raising taxes weakens incentives and further slows economic growth—worsening the debt-to-GDP ratio—the better approach is to slow government spending growth … Thus the only option is to throw the brakes on entitlements.”
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Linking racial stratification and poor health outcomes to economic inequality in the United States

The United States is marked by sharp racial divisions in who has access to the economic and social resources that enhance well-being and in who is exposed to conditions that deteriorate social and economic well-being. These divisions are the result of our country’s history of racial stratification—the process by which laws are created, institutions are shaped, and policies and norms are enforced such that dominant racial groups (whites in the American context) maintain and improve their positions relative to other racial groups. Racial disparities in life expectancy and incidences of sickness are some of the most important consequences of racial stratification, which make it a vital policymaking concern.

These disparities are only partially explained by differences in access to economic resources. Research in social psychology and epidemiology, for example, links illnesses such as hypertension and inflammation to exposure to chronic stress. In my dissertation research, I investigate the role that stress plays in increasing the risk of hypertension and inflammation among older black and white Americans, and in particular the extent to which stress can explain the significant racial disparities in both hypertension and inflammation. I define stress as exposure to potential psychosocial stressors in excess of economic resources that could mitigate or offset the effects of those stressors—modifying an approach taken by the American Psychological Association.

I use the Health and Retirement Study, run by the National Institute of Aging and the U.S. Social Security Administration and administered by the Research Survey Center at the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research, to investigate this link between racial stratification and health disparities. The HRS is one of the only datasets with the economic, psychosocial, and objective health data to answer these questions. In addition to offering objective measurements of blood pressure and the presence of C-reactive protein (a measure of inflammation), the HRS from 2006 to 2012 included a special set of questions that cover various psychosocial stressors from discrimination to economic insecurity.

In my research, I focus on exposure to everyday discrimination and financial strain. Everyday discrimination includes being treated with less respect, receiving poorer service, being underestimated or seen as a threat, or harassed. Financial strain includes being unsatisfied with one’s current financial situation or finding it difficult to make monthly bill payments, along with low economic resources (being in the bottom quintile of either annual income or wealth). These are the dual components of chronic “stress” that explain higher rates of hypertension and inflammation.

While the research is still ongoing, early results suggest two key preliminary findings. First, older black Americans are significantly more likely to face this stress than older white Americans. Second, the combination of exposure to potential psychosocial stressors and low economic resources produces worse health outcomes 4 years later compared to having either less exposure or adequate resources. (See Figure 1.)

Figure 1

Hypertension and inflammation are key risk factors for cardiovascular disease and are the leading cause of death for both blacks and whites in the United States. Both conditions of ill-health play an important role in shaping differences in racial disparities in life expectancy. These conditions also may play a role in retirement security through their influence on disparities in when older workers exit early from the U.S. labor force. (See Figure 2.)

Figure 2

As my research continues, I’ll be looking into the effects of stress on older workers’ early exit from the labor force prior to age 62. This ties racial disparities in stress and health back to the economic resources that form part of their foundation. Ultimately, this research should push policymakers and academics to view policies related to improving health outcomes as part of economic policy, and similarly policies designed to reduce racial gaps in wealth and income as public health strategies.

—Kyle K. Moore is currently a dissertation scholar at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. He is pursuing a Ph.D. in economics at The New School for Social Research, studying racial economic disparities and the effects of poorly designed economic policy on marginalized groups.

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We can cut child poverty in the United States in half in 10 years

Over the past 50 years, the number of U.S. children living in poverty has been cut in half—a tremendous accomplishment. Yet nearly 10 million children, or 13 percent of children residing in the world’s richest country, still live in poverty. This includes more than 2 million kids living in deep poverty. High levels of child poverty are shameful and lead to bad outcomes for our country. The good news is that substantial further reductions in child poverty are within reach.

In 2015, the U.S. Congress asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to conduct a thorough study of child poverty in our nation and to focus on policies that had the potential to cut the number of children living in poverty in half within 10 years. The Academies put together a team of economists, policymakers, and experts on child welfare to tackle this bold mandate. I was honored to participate, and I am excited about the final product and the roadmap it can provide to policymakers interested in prioritizing child poverty.

To provide context, Congress asked that we first study the impacts of child poverty on children’s well-being and evidence about the effectiveness of current programs intended to support children and families. The committee was directed to use the Supplemental Poverty Measure, which is constructed by the U.S. Census Bureau and includes the effects of most anti-poverty programs. (The official poverty measure does not include the effects of most anti-poverty programs, and so it cannot be reduced by expanding anti-poverty programs.) In 2015, the poverty line for a two-parent, two-child family was $26,000 in annual income; the line for deep poverty was half that.

Beyond compassion for those experiencing difficult circumstances, why should those of us who do not live in poverty care about the children who do? Because child poverty affects all of us. Although there are always exceptions, on average, poor children develop weaker language, memory, and self-regulation skills. When they grow up, they have less income, on average, and therefore pay lower taxes. Poor children are also more likely to grow up to be more dependent on public assistance and have more health problems, and are more likely both to commit crimes and to be victims of crimes. And, as the National Academies report concludes, the weight of the evidence is that it is low income itself that causes these outcomes, especially when poverty occurs in early childhood or persists throughout a large portion of childhood.

There are real economic costs to this lost productivity. Estimates range from 4 percent to 5.4 percent of Gross Domestic Product, or approximately $1 trillion annually (based on the size of the U.S. economy in 2018). So, nonpoor Americans should think of child poverty not as a problem that happens only to other people but as a challenge facing all of us.

According to the Supplementary Poverty Measure, the child poverty rate in the United States fell from 28.4 percent to 15.6 percent between 1967 and 2016. The causes of these reductions are much debated, but it is clear that government tax and transfer programs—specifically, increases in government benefits intended to reward work or provide support to those in need—played a significant role not only for those classified as living in poverty or deep poverty, but also for those in near poverty, which is 150 percent of the poverty line. (See Figure 1.)

Figure 1

The broad impact of some key programs has been clear. Periodic enhancements of the Earned Income Tax Credit—a refundable tax credit that rewards work by reducing taxes and providing payments for low-income working families—have improved child educational and health outcomes and increased maternal employment. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has improved birth outcomes and improved children’s and adults’ health. And expansions of public health insurance for pregnant women, infants, and children have led to substantial improvements in child and adult health, educational attainment, employment, and earnings.

The success of these programs is undeniable. Eliminating the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Child Tax Credit (a per-child, refundable tax credit for families), for example, would raise the current child poverty rate by almost half—5.9 percentage points—from 13 percent to nearly 19 percent. Eliminating Supplemental Nutrition Assistance would raise the rate by 5.2 percentage points. (See Figure 2.)

Figure 2

The evidence is clear: Governmental actions can and do reduce child poverty. There is, however, no one program—no silver bullet—that can accomplish the goal of cutting child poverty in half. But it is possible to assemble arrays of policies that can cut the rate of child poverty by half over the next decade.

The recommendations of the National Academies report

The report by the National Academies does not prescribe a particular path, but rather provides a menu of options for policymakers. We put together four illustrative packages of programs, with varying combinations of work incentives and family supports. One package would cut child poverty in half, one would cut both child poverty and deep child poverty in half, and two smaller packages would cut child poverty by a more modest amount. In addition to reducing poverty, all of these packages would incentivize work by raising take-home pay and reducing the costs associated with employment.

The first package, which would cut child poverty rates in half by relying on a combination of means-tested supports and work incentives, would:

  • Increase payments for the Earned Income Tax Credit for the lowest-income and mid-range recipients of the credit
  • Convert the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit to a fully refundable credit and concentrate its benefits on families with the lowest incomes and with children under the age of 5
  • Increase Supplemental Nutrition Assistance benefits by 35 percent and increase benefits for older children
  • Increase the number of housing vouchers for families with children to increase significantly the number of eligible families who would use them

The second package, which would provide more universal benefits, would cut both overall child poverty and deep child poverty rates by half with a combination of work incentives, economic security programs, and social inclusion initiatives. It includes two programs, which would be new to the United States. This package would:

  • Increase payments for the Earned Income Tax Credit by 40 percent across the board, continuing to phase it out at the current income levels
  • Convert the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit to a fully refundable credit and concentrate its benefits on the lowest-income families and families with children under age 5
  • Raise the federal hourly minimum wage from the current $7.25 to $10.25 and index it to inflation
  • Restore eligibility for legal immigrants for several means-tested economic security programs, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Medicaid, and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
  • Create a new child allowance of $225 per month per child for families of all children under age 17, including legal immigrants
  • Institute a child support assurance policy to provide a backup source of income to custodial parents if the other parent does not pay child support, and set a guaranteed minimum child support amount of $100 per month per child

A third package would expand the Earned Income and Child and Dependent Care tax credits, while adding a $2,000 child allowance to replace the current Child Tax Credit. This package would reduce child poverty by an estimated 36 percent. A fourth package, which included only four “work-oriented” programs (the Earned Income and Child and Dependent Care tax credits, an increase in the minimum wage, and a nationwide roll-out of a promising demonstration program called “Work Advance”), was estimated to have the largest effects on the employment of low-income workers but the smallest effect on reducing poverty (a reduction of 18.8 percent). This simulation illustrates how hard it is to reduce child poverty only through encouraging parents to work. There are far too many full-time jobs that, without other assistance, leave parents and children in poverty.

These packages—which, again, are intended only to be illustrative—range in estimated cost from $8.7 billion to $108 billion, with the higher-cost programs having the greatest impact on child poverty. Specifically, the “means-tested” package would cost $90.7 billion annually. It would add an estimated 400,000 individuals to the job rolls, with earnings of $2.2 billion annually. The “universal” package would cost $108.8 billion and increase employment by more than 600,000 jobs and add $13.4 billion in earnings. The third package, which would only partially achieve the poverty reduction goal set by Congress, as discussed above, would cost $44 billion annually; it would increase the number of job-holders by 568,000. Finally, the “work-oriented” program would cost only $8.7 billion and would add more than 1 million jobs, but would lead to relatively modest reductions in child poverty.

The estimates are based on federal tax law in 2015, which was in effect for most of the preparation of the report, though additional simulations show that the new tax law did not radically alter the conclusions. The groupings of programs are intended to show how policymakers could “mix and match” policies. Other packages could be simulated by adjusting individual package elements to achieve specific cost levels, poverty reductions, and levels of new jobholders.

The report’s findings are evidence-based. We carefully reviewed existing research to estimate the effects of child poverty, how current programs are working, and what programs would work. The ideas are nonpartisan, and some programs that would be enhanced have historically enjoyed bipartisan support. We understand that many policymakers are disinclined to increase spending, but they ought to consider the economic and fiscal costs of child poverty, in addition to the personal and social costs—the estimated $1 trillion loss in GDP mentioned above suggests annual losses to the U.S. Treasury well in excess of the costs of these proposed initiatives. These measures truly would pay for themselves and more.

Areas for further research recommended in the National Academies report

Congress also asked us to suggest areas where additional research could advance the knowledge necessary to develop policies to reduce child poverty. One important area where more research is needed concerns the effectiveness of work requirements on participants in anti-poverty programs. The existing research on this question largely pertains to the 1996 welfare reform (the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act, which created the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program). It is thus not only very dated but also muddied by the many other changes in welfare systems that were embedded in the new law or took place at around the same time.

One case in point: The passage of the 1996 welfare reform legislation was followed by large increases in the employment of single mothers, but the evidence suggests that expansions in the Earned Income Tax Credit and the booming economy—not the work requirements enacted as part of the 1996 welfare reform law—were largely responsible for these gains. The National Academies report thus calls for high-quality, methodologically rigorous research and experimentation on the effectiveness of work requirements today and more generally, on ways to boost the job skills and employment of parents in low-income families receiving public assistance.

A second research issue highlighted in the report is that we need better measures of poverty itself. One example is public health insurance. Although a great deal of the support offered to low-income children comes in the form of the health insurance offered through Medicaid and the Child Health Insurance Program, the effects of health insurance are not properly incorporated into poverty measures. Hence, by construction, even very large expenditures on Medicaid cannot have any impact on measured poverty.

A second example is the lack of a consensus on how best to measure consumption poverty. Despite the view of many observers that it would be more reasonable to assess poverty using measures of consumption rather than measures of income, there is currently no effective tool for doing so. This is an active area for research, including work by Equitable Growth grantee Tim Smeeding, the Lee Rainwater Distinguished Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a member of our National Academies study.

A third example is the weak existing measurement of poverty in small ethnic, racial, and demographic groups. Although we know that some groups such as Native Americans are disproportionately likely to suffer poverty, current data sources yield only small samples of these groups, which makes it difficult to study determinants of poverty or the effects of anti-poverty programs among them.

Conclusion

While the National Academies report responds to the 2015 congressional mandate, which set the clear and specific goal of cutting child poverty in half in 10 years, one could also imagine other longer-term approaches to addressing the societal problems associated with child poverty. Investments in early childhood education, for example, would not reduce child poverty immediately but have been shown to make it less likely that children will grow up to be poor or that their children will be poor.

The model used to create these estimates in the report was developed by the respected Urban Institute, which would be fully capable of estimating other proposals and packages. Of course, Congress can also use the Congressional Budget Office to obtain its own estimates, and I hope this will indeed happen. That would mean that Congress is giving the report the serious consideration it deserves.

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How national income inequality in the United States contributes to economic disparities between regions

One of the biggest challenges facing the United States today is the growing economic disparities between different regions of the country. In 1980, just 12 percent of Americans lived in metropolitan areas with a mean family income more than 20 percent higher or lower than the national average. By 2013, more than 30 percent did. Today a handful of metros—cities such as San Francisco and Washington, DC—have mean family incomes 40 percent or 50 percent greater than average and more than double the average incomes in many rural areas.

That was much less true in 1980. At that time, large sections of the country had incomes roughly in line with the national average. By 2013, the country had bifurcated into a handful of thriving metro areas and a much larger set of places with far lower incomes. (See Figure 1.)

Figure 1

These disparities create major problems for the United States. They make it harder to form national economic policy because one interest rate and money supply must meet the needs of rich and poor places simultaneously. These disparities may be implicated in the large mobility differences between different regions of the country, as well as how the shortage of good jobs in struggling regions contributes to social breakdown. Regional disparities also increasingly shape our politics: Hillary Clinton famously won counties collectively producing almost two-thirds of GDP despite losing the 2016 election.

In a new paper, I investigate the processes driving this regional divergence. Most previous research has emphasized the role of income sorting—the process where people of different income or education levels have come to live in different cities from one another—in contributing to economic divergence between regions. This sorting could result if some cities offer lifestyle amenities that are more attractive to high-income workers, if the geographic distribution of well-paying jobs is changing, or if high housing prices are preventing people from moving to prosperous areas.

I show, however, that a much bigger portion of the growing disparities is due to rising income inequality at the national level. Since 1980, the richest 1 percent of Americans have seen their real pretax incomes triple, while the poorest half saw theirs increase by just $200. As their incomes have gone up, the rich have pulled the average incomes of their hometowns up with them. That process is much more important than income sorting in accounting for the diverging incomes across regions: If inequality hadn’t gone up, sorting alone would have resulted in less than a quarter as much divergence as actually occurred. But even if there had been no sorting whatsoever, growing inequality on its own would have resulted in more than half of the divergence the country has experienced.

Sorting and Inequality

To see the difference between sorting and inequality, consider a hypothetical country with two cities, City A and City B. (See Figure 2.) To begin with, in panel 1 of Figure 2, these cities have similarly shaped income distributions but City A is poorer, with a mean income of $8, and City B is richer, with a mean income of $12. Now imagine that the country experiences an episode of income sorting, shown in panel 2. High-income people move from City A to City B, while low-income people move in the opposite direction. As a result of this sorting, the level of inequality within each city goes down, while the average incomes of the two cities grow further apart. In this scenario, the increased sorting reduces the mean income in City A to $7.40, while that in City B rises to $12.60.

Next, consider an increase in inequality at the national level, shown in panel 3. In this case, rather than moving between cities, everyone stays where they were, but the national distribution stretches out, such that everyone earning less than the national average sees their income fall by $1 while those earning more see theirs rise by the same amount. Even though inequality rose for the whole nation at once, City B saw a net benefit while City A saw a net loss. This is because City B was richer than average to begin with, so it captured a greater share of the benefits from nationally rising inequality, while City A was left with a greater share of the costs. Rising inequality at the national level pulls the average incomes of the two cities apart, with that of City A falling to $7.50 and that of City B rising to $12.50.

Figure 2

Importantly, the change in the average incomes of the two cities is similar across these two scenarios, even though the driving process, and the resulting income distributions within each city, are very different. Which type of process dominates is an empirical distribution that depends on the initial levels and subsequent trends in sorting and inequality. Of course, both processes could happen at the same time, as shown in panel 4. In that case, the average incomes of the two cities diverge by more than in the previous two scenarios combined.

Regional divergence is primarily driven by inequality

To estimate the importance of each of these two processes to the divergence experienced in the United States, I ran simulations holding either the amount of sorting or the level of income inequality constant at 1980 levels. If there had been no sorting whatsoever, rising inequality would still have resulted in more than half as much divergence as actually happened. But without the effect of rising inequality, sorting on its own would have resulted in less than a quarter as much divergence as occurred in reality. (See Figure 3.)

Figure 3

Regional divergence is driven by the very rich

Further simulations show that rising income disparities are overwhelmingly driven by the richest members of society. Whereas previous research has focused on the difference between college graduates and everyone else, I show that it is the richest few percentiles of the wealthy who drive most of the change. A full 50 percent of the divergence in mean family incomes across regions since 1980 is attributable to changes that have happened among the richest 1 percent of society. Another 25 percent is driven by the next 9 income percentiles, while the poorest 90 percent of society—a group that includes roughly two-thirds of college graduates—has seen only about a quarter as much income divergence as has happened overall. This means that increasing regional disparities are less a function of changes among the college-educated population in general and more a function of changes affecting the very rich. (See Figure 4.)

Figure 4

Conclusion

Together, these results imply that growing inequalities between regions of the United States should be thought of first and foremost as the spatial reflection of growing inequalities between people. Many policies that have been proposed to reduce regional disparities attempt to undo the sorting process, whether by making it easier for low-income people to move to booming metropolitan areas, subsidizing employment in struggling regions, or directly relocating government jobs there.

My paper suggests that all of these policies may be beneficial, yet would probably not solve the problem. Divergence in incomes across regions is more the result of changes in how much money people make than changes in where they live. As the top 1 percent of income earners accrue a larger and larger share of the national economic pie, the regions where they happen to live experience out-sized income growth and pull away from the rest of the country.

Narrowing these regional income disparities between different places will be almost impossible without also reducing the income disparities between people in general. Conversely, policies aimed at reducing income inequality at the national level will also reduce the gaps between places at the same time.

—Robert Manduca is a Ph.D. student in Sociology and Social Policy at Harvard University

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Competitive Edge: Crafting a monopolization law for our time

Antitrust and competition issues are receiving renewed interest, and for good reason. So far, the discussion has occurred at a high level of generality. To address important specific antitrust enforcement and competition issues, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth has launched this blog, which we call “Competitive Edge.” This series features leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of topics: potential areas for antitrust enforcement, concerns about existing doctrine, practical realities enforcers face, proposals for reform, and broader policies to promote competition. Andrew I. Gavil has authored this month’s contribution.

The octopus image, above, updates an iconic editorial cartoon first published in 1904 in the magazine Puck to portray the Standard Oil monopoly. Please note the harpoon. Our goal for Competitive Edge is to promote the development of sharp and effective tools to increase competition in the United States economy.


Andrew I. Gavil

Antitrust policy is not a typical candidate for vibrant public debate, but these are not typical times. Concerns about rising corporate concentration, an increased incidence of market power in some sectors of the U.S. economy, and evidence of growing wealth and income inequality are the triggers for this debate—one that pits advocates of radical reforms against defenders of the status quo.

Much of the debate is focused on the effectiveness of Section 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, the first federal law to outlaw monopolistic business practices by single, powerful firms. As it has been interpreted by the Supreme Court over many decades, however, Section 2 has been largely circumscribed to the point where major government prosecutions are rare and few private challenges succeed.

If Section 2 is to be an effective tool for policing and deterring anti-competitive conduct in today’s economy, then it will need to be adjusted for the needs of our time. But first it is important to understand how Section 2 became so limited in scope, beginning with the origins of the Sherman Act.

The legal genesis of one of the most permissive anti-monopolization laws in the world

Choosing the language of the Sherman Act, the Congress of 1890 turned to common law, which had long prohibited “unreasonable restraints of trade” and various forms of monopolizing conduct. That Congress was concerned about the collusive and exclusionary practices of the corporate behemoths of the day, the trusts such as Standard Oil. The result was a statute that included prohibitions of concerted action (Section 1), as well as monopolization, attempts to monopolize, and conspiracy to monopolize (Section 2).

In one of its earliest interpretations of the Sherman Act’s critical language, the Supreme Court concluded in Standard Oil Company of New Jersey v. United States (1911) that both Sections 1 and 2 ought to be guided by a “standard of reason.” The Court would later also observe that the intent of the Congress was not to codify the specific content of the common law as it existed in 1890, but rather to embrace its process so the law could evolve and adapt over time. As the Court put it, with specific reference to Section 1’s “restraint of trade,” the Sherman Act “invokes the common law itself, and not merely the static content that the common law had assigned to the term in 1890.” Congress, the Supreme Court said, “expected the courts to give shape to the statute’s broad mandate by drawing on common-law tradition.” In the wake of this ruling, federal courts, guided by public and private litigants, were assigned the role of defining the content of the Sherman Act’s prohibitions.

This approach to Section 1 has been lauded as critical to its success and durability. It has permitted the two federal antitrust agencies—the Federal Trade Commission and the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice—and the courts to reshape the standards of pleading, production, and proof in antitrust cases over time to reflect new economic learning, new industry conditions, and new business models and practices. Although some critics view the current state of the law as too permissive, they would, in part, invoke that same flexibility to alter course and enhance its prohibitions.

Sections 1 and 2 share common roots in the common law, but in contrast to Section 1’s evolution over time, Section 2’s prohibitions have become locked in time, captives of the past.

That past has been shaped in large part by the decisions of two legendary jurists, Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes and Judge Learned Hand, and two decisions they authored: Swift & Co. v. United States (1905) and United States v. Aluminum Co. of America (1945), respectively. These two cases, and others that followed, committed Section 2 to an approach that focuses almost obsessively on very high market-share benchmarks as determinants of a firm’s power, instead of more direct measures—creating effective safe harbors and leaving gaps in U.S. law that have likely impeded the ability of Section 2 to evolve with economic learning and changes to the U.S. economy.

In Swift, Justice Holmes offered a brief but enduring interpretation of Section 2’s “attempt to monopolize” offense. Drawing on the Sherman Act’s use of common law concepts and its inclusion of a criminal prohibition, his expertise as a student of the common law, and an earlier non-antitrust criminal law decision he had authored while on the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts, Holmes declared that to establish an “attempt” offense under Section 2, the government would have to prove a “dangerous probability of success,” meaning a dangerous probability of achieving monopoly.

The full import of that holding was not realized until the decision in Aluminum Co. of America (Alcoa), where, sitting as the Supreme Court, the Second Circuit established the now-familiar and durable “power + bad conduct” framework for cases alleging monopolization, which requires proof of both monopoly power and exclusionary conduct. To define “monopoly power,” Judge Hand looked back at previous decisions of the Court to formulate his influential market-share benchmarks for identifying monopolies: 90 percent (“enough to constitute a monopoly”); 60 percent to 64 percent (“doubtful”); 33 percent (“certainly…not”). Markets, he said, would thereafter have to be “defined,” as was the case in Alcoa, in order to facilitate such market-share calculations, a conclusion that was reinforced a decade later by the Court’s United States v. E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company decision (1956), which implied that 75 percent would also be enough to constitute a monopoly.

Thus was born one of the most permissive anti-monopolization laws in the world. Although courts look to a number of factors in assessing a firm’s power, unless it possesses more than roughly 70 percent of a defined relevant market, then it is unlikely to run afoul of Section 2’s prohibition of monopolization if it acts unilaterally—regardless of its intent or the effects of its conduct. And if a firm with, say, 50 percent of a market engages in similarly unilateral and unjustifiable exclusionary conduct, it, too, is likely to escape condemnation, provided there is no “dangerous probability” that its conduct will raise its market share to “monopolistic” levels. That will be true even if the conduct blunts a competitive challenge and thereby helps it to entrench any market power it already possesses—and even if the anti-competitive effect of the conduct satisfies Section 1’s standard for constituting an “unreasonable restraint of trade.”

Fear of “false positives” led the Supreme Court to further constrain Section 2

The Court acknowledged and endorsed this “gap” between Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act in its 1984 Copperweld Corporation v. Independence Tube Corporation decision. In its view, the Sherman Act’s framers intended it by design, so unilateral conduct would be treated more permissively than the concerted conduct prohibited by Section 1, for fear of discouraging aggressive but competitive conduct by single firms. But that proposition was wholly at odds with Standard Oil’s view that Sections 1 and 2 were intended to be complementary, leaving no gap at all.

Copperweld more so reflected the 1980s Supreme Court’s perception that prior decisions of the Court had established standards of conduct that were too strict, as well as its fear of false positives, than anything intended by the 1890 Congress. Nevertheless, this view of Section 2 as it applies to the attempt-to-monopolize offense was cemented into contemporary law by the Supreme Court in Spectrum Sports, Inc. v. McQuillan (1993), where, citing Swift and Copperweld, the Court held that “the plaintiff charging attempted monopolization must prove dangerous probability of actual monopolization, which has generally required a definition of the relevant market and examination of market power.”

This preference for circumstantial evidence was arguably extended even further by the Supreme Court’s recent 2018 decision in State of Ohio v. American Express, which appeared to conclude in a controversial footnote that defining a relevant market and inferring market power are necessary prerequisites to the assessment of the competitive impact of all “vertical” conduct, even under Section 1, regardless of the availability of more direct evidence that it has had an adverse impact on competition.

The Alcoa decision also had endorsed some of the most important and equally durable propositions about Section 2—that “monopoly” alone is not an offense of Section 2 and that to “monopolize” also requires exclusionary conduct, which must be distinguished from “superior skill, foresight and industry.” Judge Hand proclaimed in that ruling that “[t]he successful competitor, having been urged to compete, must not be turned upon when he wins.” But Hand also famously observed that “possession of unchallenged power deadens initiative, discourages thrift and depresses energy; that immunity from competition is a narcotic, and rivalry a stimulant, to industrial progress.”

The Court in Alcoa expressed the view that it might be necessary to tolerate monopoly occasionally, but that was not to say it was desirable. Although Judge Hand’s application of these principles to the facts of Alcoa has been criticized and might not be followed today, these core principles have largely proved enduring and have guided the law of monopolization for more than seven decades in cases such as Aspen Skiing Company v. Aspen Highlands Skiing Corporation (1985) and United States v. Microsoft Corporation (2001).

More recent pronouncements from the Supreme Court addressing exclusionary conduct, however, embrace a different and far more cautious narrative. Like Copperweld, Brooke Group Ltd. v. Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corporation (1993) and Verizon Communications, Inc. v. Law Offices of Curtis V. Trinko, LLP (2004) have emphasized concern for false positives and fear that liability standards that are too easy to satisfy will inhibit competition, especially innovation, by both dominant incumbents and rivals alike. And, in contrast to Alcoa, the Court in Trinko reasoned that “the opportunity to charge monopoly prices—at least for a short period—is what attracts ‘business acumen’ in the first place.” This supposition about monopoly transforms Alcoa’s grudging acceptance into a near embrace and ignores that the dream of monopoly is hardly the motivation that drives most firms to compete. Profits, maybe, but true “monopoly prices?” The embedded assumptions in such cases, layered onto the highly formalistic framework established by Swift and Alcoa, have no doubt limited the reach of Section 2.

Time to reinterpret exclusionary conduct to account for the challenges of the 21st century U.S. economy

Fortunately, our understanding of “exclusionary” conduct has advanced, as has our understanding of market power. Exclusionary conduct cases such as Microsoft have provided a structured, burden-shifting framework for evaluating claims of exclusionary conduct within the reasonableness framework first identified by Standard Oil. In addition, the federal government’s Horizontal Merger Guidelines aptly identify the focus of most of modern competition law when they state that their “unifying theme” is that “mergers should not be permitted to create, enhance, or entrench market power or to facilitate its exercise.”

A modern approach to unilateral conduct could draw upon these advances. It might start by revisiting and refreshing the meaning of the common law terminology of Section 2. Such a modern framework could:

  • Embrace today’s structured approach to the rule of reason, as did the Court in Microsoft
  • Fully integrate a more sophisticated understanding of exclusionary conduct, market power, and anti-competitive effects.

Such an approach would prohibit exclusionary conduct (unilateral or concerted) that significantly contributes to the creation, entrenchment, or enhancement of market power, allowing for methods of proving power through alternatives to defining markets and calculating market shares.

This more contemporary approach would be more consonant with trends in most other modern antitrust law. It would untether the law of exclusionary conduct from blind and formalistic reliance on market-share benchmarks, while also allowing for cognizable and verifiable efficiency justifications. In theory, Section 2’s common law origins should allow for this kind of evolution in the courts, but it might instead require legislative reform. In the end, under either approach, change would open up needed space for Section 2 to begin to evolve once again, as has Section 1, so it could adapt to the needs of our time.

Conclusion

In support of their current-day agendas, some of the most vocal advocates in today’s debates have turned to the past, invoking the words and ideas of former Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis, who championed progressive competition-law reforms in the early part of the 20th century, and former U.S. Court of Appeals Judge Robert H. Bork, one of the principal proponents of the Chicago School of Antitrust, who, in the late 1970s, influenced the modern shift toward a more economic approach to antitrust analysis, including a pronounced concern for false positives.

Although the collective wisdom of the past can surely inform today’s policy discussion, as smart as Brandeis and Bork were, they are best understood in the context of their own times, when they were responding to the issues and antitrust doctrine of their day. The economy of 2019 is not the economy of 1912 or 1978, and the antitrust doctrine of 2019 is not the same as that of 1912 or 1978.

To address the challenge of designing a monopolization law for our era, policymakers, advocates, and the courts will need to do more than selectively borrow from the ghosts of past antitrust debates to advance current-day agendas. What is required instead is the construction of a new and balanced consensus that can address the needs of this time.

—Andrew I. Gavil is a professor of law at Howard University School of Law. This posting is adapted from remarks delivered at the American Antitrust Institute’s Competition Roundtable, Challenging Monopolies in Court: Where Have We Been and Where Are We Going?, on March 14, 2019. The views expressed here are his own.

The effects of disability programs on financial outcomes in the United States

In his Pulitzer-Prize-winning book, Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City, Matthew Desmond documents the instability in the lives of low-income tenants in Milwaukee, who are frequently uprooted due to eviction. He notes one exception: Renters receiving disability income from the Supplemental Security Income program have a more reliable income than low-wage workers and are therefore more likely to pay rent on time. Their disability income translates into greater housing stability.

This program, administered by the U.S. Social Security Administration, serves 6.3 million low-income Americans with disabilities, while the the agency’s Social Security Disability Insurance program serves 9.5 million American workers with disabilities. Both programs provide monthly income and health insurance to individuals with qualifying disabilities.

The expansion of these programs in recent decades has sparked public debate about who is considered disabled and who should be required to work for a living. Economists have largely focused on the effect of these programs on how much people work. Several studies find that the two programs reduce labor force participation by around 30 percentage points, meaning that these programs cost society some productivity.

Yet, as Desmond’s account suggests, disability programs may also have substantial benefits to recipients and to society. To date, these benefits have been difficult to study quantitatively due to the absence of data on consumption and well-being for the population of disability recipients. Understanding both the costs and benefits of Social Security programs for disabled Americans is critical to determining the appropriate generosity of these programs: If the benefits outweigh costs, then this argues for relatively generous transfers, while high costs relative to benefits argue for smaller transfers.

In a recent working paper published by the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, we study the effects of the Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income programs on several markers of financial distress. We construct the first nationwide dataset of Social Security disability applicants—about 44 million applications between 2000 and 2014—linked to bankruptcies, foreclosures, evictions, and home transactions. We use a research design based on the Social Security Administration’s decision-making process to ensure that we are capturing the causal effects of the programs, rather than simply correlations.

In particular, we use a Social Security Administration rule that instructs government examiners to use more lenient standards for applicants who are above age 55 relative to those who are below age 55. A similar change in rules occurs at age 50. We show that, before they apply, applicants who are above the cut-off age at the decision date look similar to those who are below the age cut-off. This means that we can attribute any differences in financial distress after the decision to the higher likelihood of being approved for disability benefits above the age cut-off.

We find that the Social Security disability programs reduce rates of financial distress substantially. Being approved for disability benefits at the initial stage (before appeals) reduces bankruptcy rates by 30 percent over the next 3 years. Among homeowners, approval reduces foreclosure rates by 30 percent and reduces rates of home sales by 20 percent over the next 3 years. (We also find a 10 percent decline in eviction rates over the next 3 years, consistent with Desmond’s account, but the estimates are not statistically significant.) In addition, we find that being approved for disability benefits increases the likelihood of purchasing a home by 20 percent over the same time period.

These results indicate that many recipients use their disability benefits to stay in homes that they would have otherwise lost to foreclosure or sale. More generally, they suggest that disability programs reduce rates of extreme consumption losses among recipients.

These effects are large relative to the size of disability benefits—on the order of $9,000 annually for the Supplemental Security Income program and $15,000 annually for the Social Security Disability Insurance program. Why are the effects so large? Two descriptive facts from our paper provide a clue. First, we find that rates of bankruptcy, eviction, and foreclosure and home sale (for homeowners) are higher among disability applicants than the general population. Second, we find that disability applicants apply for these programs after several years of increasing financial distress. At the time they apply, a large fraction of applicants are at risk for bankruptcy, foreclosure, and distressed home sale. It is perhaps not surprising, then, that being approved for disability benefits reduces the likelihood of these events.

This evidence on the effect of disability programs is consistent with evidence from other social safety net programs. Recent studies have found that public health insurance reduces medical out-of-pocket spending, medical debt, and mortgage delinquency rates. Another study found that unemployment insurance drastically reduces foreclosures.

The Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income programs may also have spillover benefits to nonrecipients. By reducing foreclosures among disability recipients, for example, these two programs probably increase the property values of neighboring homeowners.

How do these results inform the public policy debate over disability programs? The results do not speak to how disabled recipients are or whether they could work in the absence of benefits. Instead, they indicate that the two disability programs cut rates of financial distress among recipients substantially, providing some of the first evidence on the benefits of these programs to recipients.

—Manasi Deshpande is an assistant professor at the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics at the University of Chicago. Tal Gross is an assistant professor of markets, public policy, and law at Boston University’s Questrom School of Business. Yalun Su is a research assistant at the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics and the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago.

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