The distribution of wealth in the United States and implications for a net worth tax

Wealth inequality in the United States is high and has increased sharply in recent decades. This increase—alongside a parallel increase in income inequality—has spurred increased attention to the implications of inequality for living standards and increased interest in policy instruments that can combat inequality. Taxes on wealth are a natural policy instrument to address wealth inequality and could raise substantial revenue while shoring up structural weaknesses in the current income tax system.

This issue brief provides an overview of the distribution of wealth in the United States to inform discussion of a potential net worth tax—or other reforms to the taxation of wealth—in the United States. This brief draws from “Net worth taxes: What they are and how they work,” by Greg Leiserson, Will McGrew, and Raksha Kopparam.1

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The distribution of wealth in the United States and implications for a net worth tax

A net worth tax is an annual tax imposed on an individual or family’s wealth, or net worth. Wealth is the difference between the value of a family’s assets and liabilities. Assets are things a family owns, including both financial assets such as bank accounts, stocks, bonds, and ownership stakes in closely held businesses, and nonfinancial assets such as a car, house, or real estate. Liabilities are a family’s debts such as mortgages, credit card balances, and car loans.

Wealth is distributed in a highly unequal fashion, with the wealthiest 1 percent of families in the United States holding about 40 percent of all wealth and the bottom 90 percent of families holding less than one-quarter of all wealth.2 (See Figure 1.) Notably, 25 percent of families have less than $10,000 in wealth. The share of wealth held by the wealthiest families substantially exceeds the share of income received by the highest-income families.

Figure 1

Wealth disparities have widened over time. In 1989, the bottom 90 percent of the U.S. population held 33 percent of all wealth. By 2016, the bottom 90 percent of the population held only 23 percent of wealth. The wealth share of the top 1 percent increased from about 30 percent to about 40 percent over the same period. (See Figure 2.)

Figure 2

The high level of wealth inequality in the United States also is reflected in the substantial difference between median wealth ($97,000) and mean wealth ($690,000). As a result, 84 percent of families have wealth below the mean. The 90th percentile of the wealth distribution is $1.2 million. The 99th percentile of the wealth distribution is $10 million.

The percentiles of the wealth distribution near the top are smaller when people are grouped into tax units (the people appearing on the same tax return) rather than households, as there are low- or moderate-wealth tax units that are part of higher-wealth households. The 95th percentile of wealth among tax units is $1.7 million, and the 99th percentile of wealth among tax units is $8.5 million. (See Table 1.)

Table 1

The highly skewed distribution of wealth is one of the primary reasons the burden of a net worth tax would be highly progressive.3 Moreover, systematic differences in wealth across age, race and ethnicity, and educational attainment mean that a net worth tax would shift the burden of the tax system not only from poor to rich, but also from younger families to older families and from families of color to white families. Median wealth for a family with a head of household younger than 35 years old in 2016 was $11,000, while median wealth for a family with head of household age 65 to 74 was $224,000. (See Figure 3.)

Figure 3

Median wealth for families in which the survey respondent was white and not Hispanic or Latino in 2016 was $171,000. Median wealth for families in which the survey respondent was black or African American and not Hispanic or Latino was $17,000, and median wealth for families in which the survey respondent was Hispanic or Latino was $21,000. Median wealth for all other families was $65,000. (The sample for the Survey of Consumer Finances is too small to disaggregate wealth among the diverse groups that make up this population.) (See Figure 4.)

Figure 4

Families in which the household head has a 4-year college degree had median wealth of $292,000 in 2016. In contrast, families in which the household head had attended some college or has an associate degree had median wealth of $66,000, and families in which the household head has a high school diploma had median wealth of $67,000. Families in which the head did not have a high school diploma had median wealth of only $23,000. (See Figure 5.)

Figure 5

Net worth taxes typically apply only to the relatively wealthy or extremely wealthy and exempt the rest of the population. The patterns of wealth inequality among the entire population shown above are mirrored among the wealthy. Families with $1 million of wealth or more are older, more likely to be white, and more likely to have a 4-year college degree than the population as a whole. (See Figure 6.)

Figure 6

Low-wealth and high-wealth families differ in terms of the assets and liabilities they hold. Cars and other vehicles account for the overwhelming majority of wealth for low-wealth families. Middle-wealth families hold much more of their wealth in home equity, with more modest contributions from retirement accounts, bank accounts, and cars. Very high-wealth families hold much more of their wealth in business equity and financial assets outside retirement accounts. (See Figure 7.)

Figure 7

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Remembrance: Alan Krueger

Alan Krueger, Bendheim Professor of Economics and Public Policy, in his office in the Louis A. Simpson International Building. August 2017.

Heather Boushey, Executive Director and Chief Economist at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, issued the following statement in reaction to the death of Princeton University economist Alan B. Krueger:

We at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth are deeply saddened to learn of the death of Alan Krueger. He was devoted to serving the public and to ensuring that economics was not only about theory but about improving people’s lives. His contributions to the discipline and to our country were at the heart of why Equitable Growth exists and the work we do.

Alan’s groundbreaking work with David Card used new data and methods that showed the overall, mainly positive, impact of increases in the minimum wage—a finding at odds with prevailing theory that changed the way we think about the economy and economics. As a pioneer in the use of natural experiments as the basis for economic research, his work helped create a paradigm shift in the discipline itself, from a focus on economic modeling to a focus on how real people and real institutions are affected by changes in policy and in the economy.

Today, economists can’t imagine the discipline without this kind of work. The lessons learned from the advances in economics in-no-small-part pioneered by Alan underlay much of the cutting edge of economics—and the work we do at Equitable Growth to show how inequality affects economic growth. Alan gets a huge amount of the credit for this fundamental change. Over his career, Alan made economics much more useful to policymakers and helped change the way policy is developed and debated.

Alan believed it was important to engage in public service. His work during the Obama Administration contributed enormously to our nation’s emergence from the Great Recession. As a mentor to me and to many other economists, Alan emphasized the value of serving the public. Providing me career advice once, he said he couldn’t imagine not having had the opportunity to serve—and expressed his joy at having had more than one chance to do so.

Alan Krueger believed economics—and economists—should advance knowledge and serve people. He helped make the discipline a little bit less about theory and a lot more about figuring out how the economy actually works for people and maximizing its benefits for all, not just a few. This organization, and I personally, will miss him a great deal.

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Equitable Growth’s history of focusing on women’s role in the economy: A review

One of the ways that The Washington Center for Equitable Growth is recognizing Women’s History Month is to bring to attention some of the work we’ve published over the past few years on the role women play in the workplace and the U.S. economy, the challenges they face in meeting their work and family responsibilities, and why and how government should be making it easier to do so. Following are some highlights of our many articles, issue briefs, and reports addressing these issues.

  1. The United State of Women: How women are reshaping the American economy. Speaking at the White House United State of Women Summit in 2016, Equitable Growth Executive Director and Chief Economist Heather Boushey discussed the role of women in the economy. Their increasing participation in the workforce from 1979 onward raised Gross Domestic Product by an additional 11 percent, she said, and they are now the breadwinners or co-breadwinners in nearly two-thirds of U.S. families. But federal policies in the 21st century have not kept up with the growing need for family leave, schedule stability, and other support to ensure that women can enter and remain in the workforce.
  2. Gender wage inequality. Despite the increase over the past several decades in women’s work hours and incomes, which are now a significant part of overall household financial stability and U.S. economic growth, women are still severely limited by gender pay inequality. Their average earnings are nearly 20 percent less than men’s average earnings. This comprehensive 2018 report, by sociologist Sarah Jane Glynn, presents in detail the reasons why gender pay inequality persists today in the United States and possible policy solutions at the federal level, as well as in select state and local policy settings. The paper also contains significant analysis of intersectionality and incomes, shining a light on how race and gender combine to affect economic outcomes.
  3. Paid family and medical leave in the United States: A research agenda. Changes in women’s labor force participation in the United States mean that the majority of families no longer have a stay-at-home spouse to provide unpaid care for a new baby, a sick loved one, or an aging family member. Too many workers are unable to provide such care or deal with their own health challenges at the expense of their own financial well-being. This failure takes a broader toll on the health of the U.S. economy. A growing number of states are experimenting with policies designed to provide widespread access to paid family and medical leave. This 2018 paper, by Equitable Growth Senior Director for Family Economic Security Elisabeth Jacobs, explores the evidence from these experiments of the need for and impact of such policies; surveys a wide range of literature that spans labor market outcomes, health outcomes, and broader macroeconomic outcomes; and lays out a research agenda designed to accelerate the evidence base for state and federal policymakers.
  4. Women have made the difference for family economic security. The steady movement of women into the U.S. workforce over the past five decades has dramatically changed the composition of family incomes across the country and up and down the income ladder. But this 2016 issue brief by Heather Boushey and Kavya Vaghul showed that family income did not increase faster than in earlier eras despite women’s additional earnings. The authors explored how over the previous four decades, women’s increased earnings and increased annual hours of work were essential, as families across the United States sought to find and maintain economic security.
  5. The gender gap in economics has ramifications far beyond the ivory tower. The economics profession has a well-known gender discrimination problem. Obstacles in the paths of women seeking to succeed in economics are numerous and pervasive. This has ramifications not only for women’s careers and the economics discipline, but also for U.S. society. In this 2017 column, former Equitable Growth Policy Analyst Bridget Ansel describes a working paper by University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill’s Anusha Chari and Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham of the New York Federal Reserve that shows how economists’ own experiences affect the issues they elevate, and that the shortage of women in the profession has an impact on the issues raised to policymakers and the analysis they receive from the profession.
  6. Understanding the link between bodily autonomy and economic opportunity across the United States. In this 2018 column, Equitable Growth Economist Kate Bahn argues that retaining control over decisions about if, when, and how to bear a child is one of the many work-life challenges women face in the U.S. labor market. Access to reproductive health care is critical to retaining control over childbearing. Bahn describes a paper to be published later this year in which she and her co-authors demonstrate the effect of access to reproductive health care by examining the current variations in occupational mobility between states for women and men, as a comparison group, based on such access.
  7. The wages of care: Bargaining power, earnings, and inequality. Women perform by far the majority of care work in the United States. This is a good example of gender segregation, and it’s no coincidence that care work is a traditionally low-paying profession. Nancy Folbre of the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Kristin Smith of the University of New Hampshire report that their analysis in this 2018 working paper “raises important questions regarding the impact of gender on wage determination. Are care workers paid less because they are women? Or are women paid less because they are care workers? The answer to both questions is probably yes.” Neither employer discrimination nor individual preference is solely responsible for the effect of gender on earnings in the care industry. The lower pay does, however, reflect on how the labor market treats vital, but stereotypically feminine, capabilities.
  8. Motherhood penalties in the U.S., 1986–2014. This 2018 working paper by Ph.D. candidate Eunjung Jee and professor Joya Misra of the University of Massachusetts Amherst and U.S. Census Bureau Research Economist Marta Murray-Close addresses the pay gap between mothers and childless women. The authors examine the evolution of this phenomenon, known as the “motherhood penalty,” over three time periods: 1986–1995, 1996–2004, and 2006–2014. They find that the motherhood penalty has persisted over time and may have worsened for mothers with one child. While it has narrowed due to mothers gaining in education and workforce experience, it persists when those factors are controlled for. Their findings may confirm the need for policies aimed at supporting mothers’ employment to reduce the motherhood wage penalty.
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Retail workers’ unpredictable schedules affect sleep quality: Evidence from the Gap

Policymakers, advocates, and researchers are increasingly paying attention to the role work schedules play in the lives of low-wage workers. They find that regular, predictable schedules are rare in the retail field. In fact, typical retail workers have little input into their hours, receive fewer than three days’ notice of their schedules, and face canceled shifts and wide variation in their schedules from week to week.

Recently released research conducted in the retail outlets of The Gap, Inc. adds to the evidence base by shedding light on surprising connections between retail workers’ schedules and their sleep patterns. The researchers find that poor schedules translate to poor sleep. In turn, other research suggests that poor sleep translates to poor health and subpar work performance.

The research was conducted by Joan C. Williams of the University of California Hastings College of the Law, Susan Lambert of the University of Chicago School of Social Service Administration, and Saravanan Kesavan of the University of North Carolina Kenan-Flager Business School. Their research is co-funded by the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.

To increase Gap workers’ control over their schedules and their schedule stability, the study authors designed a novel, multicomponent intervention. The intervention included:

  • App-based shift swapping
  • Standardizing start and end times of shifts
  • Funding for extra shifts when stores were understaffed
  • Increased consistency for workers’ schedules from week to week
  • A “part-time plus” group of workers, who received a soft guarantee of at least 20 hours per week

The researchers then randomly assigned 19 stores to a treatment group to implement the intervention and nine stores to a control group that did not implement the intervention.

The Gap was so committed to increasing the amount of notice workers had of its scheduled shifts that the company extended two components that were originally planned to be part of the intervention—two-weeks advance notice and the elimination of on-call shifts—to all of its workers in North America prior to the beginning of the experiment. So, this experiment tells policymakers and businesses alike how the multicomponent intervention affects workers’ lives beyond advance notice alone.

The researchers compared the experiences of workers in the treatment and control stores and found that the intervention improved the consistency and predictability of workers’ schedules. Perhaps more surprisingly, the researchers found that the intervention made a substantively (and statistically) significant impact on the sleep quality of workers who received the intervention.

After the intervention was implemented, the researchers compared the self-rated sleep quality of workers in the treatment stores and the control stores. Controlling for worker demographic characteristics and sleep quality in control and treatment stores prior to the intervention, the study team found that the scheduling intervention improved sleep quality by 6 percent to 8 percent.

Why is this surprising? Some scheduling practices—such as working “clopening” shifts, in which a workers may have fewer than eight hours between a closing shift at night and an opening shift the next morning, or working nonstandard overnight hours—seem to obviously interfere with a worker’s ability to sleep. But this intervention aimed to generally affect the stability and predictability of workers’ schedules and to increase workers’ control over their schedules. The intervention did not specifically seek to reduce clopening and nonstandard shifts—the most obvious culprits behind poor sleep.

So, what might be driving these impacts? One Gap worker interviewed by the research team described how fluctuating schedules prevent workers from establishing the regular circadian rhythms that people need in order to fall asleep. She remarks: “Myself and my counterpart have to completely swap our sleep schedules every two days and it really takes a toll on our lives outside of work and ability to sleep for the next day.”

Similarly, when workers are called in unexpectedly to work during their normal sleep hours, this affects sleep quality. Another Gap worker described a last-minute twilight shift: “Friday, we added three extra bodies to get a shipment done. I had four of us come in at 3 a.m. Our little army was sleepy.” To have consistent time for sleep, people need consistent schedules.

These findings are echoed in nonexperimental work. Sociologists Danny Schneider at the University of California, Berkeley and Kristen Harknett UC San Francisco find that workers who do not work on-call shifts are 8 percentage points more likely to report good quality sleep than those who do.

This suggests that the findings from the Gap underestimate how much scheduling interventions could affect sleep quality among retail workers. Remember: Neither workers in the treatment nor the control stores worked on-call shifts, and workers in both groups of stores received two-weeks advance notice of their schedules. For workers with little advance notice of their schedules and for those who work on-call shifts, increases in stability and predictability could translate into even more sizeable gains in sleep quality.

Why does sleep quality matter? Adequate nightly rest is not a luxury good for people in search of radiant skin. Sleep is essential to heart health, hormone regulation, and psychological well-being. When inadequate sleep is a chronic condition, it can lead to obesity, diabetes, and infection. Beyond sleep’s importance for worker health, sleep also matters for job performance. Sufficient sleep is linked to better cognitive processing, while low sleep quality is linked to irritability.

To perform their jobs well, retail workers need to troubleshoot in real time and display patience and kindness in interactions with customers. Consistent with the importance of sleep for labor productivity, in related work the study team found that their intervention also affected business’ bottom line. In treatment stores, labor productivity grew, and profitability increased by a remarkable 7 percent.

The Gap study shows that by improving the quality of workers’ schedules, businesses and policymakers can simultaneously stimulate the U.S. economy and improve workers’ health. Indeed, cities and states are increasingly seeing the value in requiring employers to raise the floor on schedule quality. New York City, San Francisco, Seattle, Philadelphia, Emeryville, California, and the state of Oregon have all passed legislation that has a similar goal to the Gap intervention: to provide workers with more control over their schedules and to ensure that schedules are more predictable. Rigorous academic research increasingly suggests that retail workers in these jurisdictions will be sleeping a little more soundly and working a little more productively.

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Weekend Reading: “Digital Competition” edition

This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth published this week and the second is the work we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

Equitable Growth round-up

This week, Equitable Growth released the working paper “Declining Job Quality in the United States: Explanations and Evidence” by David R. Howell of The New School and Arne L. Kalleberg of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The paper finds that in spite of a growing U.S. economy, the bottom half of the wage distribution has seen their average pay decline since 1980. Moreover, a rising share of workers are in low-wage jobs, and these jobs are now less likely to offer benefits like health insurance than before. It is an important read for anyone who is concerned about the quality of jobs that are being created.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its monthly JOLTS report, summarizing total hiring, firing, and other job flows throughout the economy in January 2019. You can check out Kate Bahn and Will McGrew’s analysis and charts of the JOLTS report here.

Every week, Brad DeLong compiles very good links from both Equitable Growth and around the web. You can check out his latest worthy reads here.

Links from around the web

The British government released a report this week by its independent Digital Competition Expert Panel, chaired by Jason Furman of Harvard University, a member of Equitable Growth’s Steering Committee and former chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama administration. The report rejects the idea that digital platforms are natural monopolies and suggests policy recommendations to help competition thrive in digital markets. These recommendations include making it easier for people to move their personal data to other services, developing digital systems with open standards, encouraging data sharing with potential competitors, strengthening antitrust policy, and preventing anticompetitive mergers. The report points out that over the past 10 years, the five largest digital firms have acquired more than 400 companies globally, and none of those acquisitions were blocked. [Digital Competition Expert Panel]

Despite high state income taxes on the rich, more rich people are moving to California than leaving, according to research cited by the Los Angeles Times. While many of the less well-off are leaving California because of high housing costs, the rich find California to be an attractive place to live because of opportunities to boost their incomes and networks. This suggests that for states, high taxes are not a huge deterrent if the economy is thriving. [Los Angeles Times]

Gene Sperling, the former director of the National Economic Council in the Clinton and Obama administrations, published an article this week arguing that economic policy should ultimately aim to improve economic dignity. He writes that it is misguided to focus too much on GDP or productivity growth because those measures can still rise when most of the gains go to the wealthiest Americans. He says what matters is how the quality of life is improving for most people. He defines economic dignity as having three pillars: the ability to care for one’s family, the pursuit of potential and purpose, and economic participation without domination or humiliation. He urges policymakers to focus not on ideology but rather on which policies will ultimately be most effective in providing economic dignity. [Democracy]

The Trump administration released its 2020 budget proposal this week. Spending decisions are ultimately up to Congress, but the budget provides a snapshot of the administration’s priorities. The proposal includes steep cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as the Food Stamp Program. [Washington Post]

The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is working on a proposal to monitor recipients of Social Security disability benefits on social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter. Their purported aim is to crack down on fraud by finding evidence that a disability benefits recipient may not be disabled, such as a photo of someone golfing. Advocates for people with disabilities are concerned that this could lead to some people being wrongfully removed from the program, since some disabled people may want to post pictures of themselves from before their disability. [New York Times]

Friday Figure

Figure is from Equitable Growth’s “JOLTS Day Graphs: January 2019 Report Edition.

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JOLTS Day Graphs: January 2019 Report Edition

Every month the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on hiring, firing, and other labor market flows from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as JOLTS. Today, the BLS released the latest data for January 2019. This report doesn’t get as much attention as the monthly Employment Situation Report, but it contains useful information about the state of the U.S. labor market. Below are a few key graphs using data from the report.

1.

The quits rate has held steady at 2.3% since June of 2018, continuing its historically high trend.

2.

The hire-per-job opening rate continues to trend downward, remaining less than one hire for every job opening.

3.

The vacancy yield edge up slightly in January, but remains less than one unemployed worker per job opening.

4.

The Beveridge Curve is trending upward, reflecting a high job openings rate combined with a low unemployment rate.

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Brad DeLong: Worthy reads on equitable growth, March 8–14, 2019

Worthy reads from Equitable Growth:

  1. The massive economic overreliance of the United States on formal education, coupled with a high school system that appears half a century out of date and no alternative to standard or semistandard college, is not serving us well. Read Equitable Growth 2015 and 2016 grantee Kyle Herkenhoff’sThe Case for More Internships and Apprenticeships in the United States,” in which he writes: “Learning from co-workers accounts for 24 percent of the aggregate U.S. human capital stock. Roughly 40 percent of a typical worker’s human capital is accumulated on the job, and of that human capital accumulation, 60 percent comes from learning the skills of co-workers. These benefits of learning from co-workers could be increased markedly, however, if U.S. policymakers encouraged more firms to offer internships, apprenticeships, and other types of mentoring such as vocational training. But this is easier said than done. In the U.S. labor market … not enough mentorship relationships are formed between high- and low-skill workers. If low-skill workers are able to leave immediately after learning new skills, then their employers have little incentive to train and educate those workers. But, from society’s standpoint, we want those low-skill workers to be taught so that they produce more and eventually go on to train the next generation of workers … A simple 3.6 percent tax break on the wages of interns, or a 3 percent tax break on the wages of mentors (defined to be those whose primary capacity is to work with interns), would generate welfare gains of roughly 2 percent per annum in the long run.”
  2. There are many obstacles to the successful reintegration of ex-convicts. This—access to credit resources—now looks like a surprisingly important one. Read Equitable Growth 2018 grantee Carlos Fernando Avenancio-León’sWithout Access to Credit, Ex-Cons May Return to Lives of Crime: “Within the former inmate population, those experiencing sharper drops in credit availability are more likely to engage in future criminal activity: For each thousand dollars of available credit card limit lost, recidivism increases by 1.4 percentage points. Accordingly, a history of incarceration and lack of access to credit creates credit-driven crime cycles for this population. Yet, after accounting for credit history and income, former inmates are less likely to default on loans than individuals who have never been incarcerated. Because former inmates present lower credit risks, lenders extend former inmates slightly more loans, albeit not nearly enough to overcome a lending contraction driven by low credit scores.”
  3. Over the past generation, tax avoidance and evasion have gone from an annoyance to a major societal catastrophe. Read Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen, and Equitable Growth 2018 grantee Gabriel Zucman’sTax Evasion and Inequality,” in which they write: “Why do the rich evade so much? The straightforward answer is because they can. There is a whole industry—in Switzerland, Panama, and other tax havens around the globe—that provides wealth concealment services to the world’s wealthiest individuals. This industry typically only targets the very wealthy (people with more than $20 million or sometimes $50 million to invest), since serving too many would-be evaders would increase the risk of these banks and law firms being found in violation of the law. Moderately wealthy individuals (those below the top 0.1 percent) do not have access to the services they sell and therefore don’t evade much tax. Further down the ladder, the majority of the population only earns wages and pension income, which cannot be hidden from the tax authority.”

Worthy reads not from Equitable Growth:

  1. Pharmaceutical pricing appears to be one of the very few areas in which an equitable growth agenda can be advanced at the federal level over the next 2 years. Read the Coalition to Protect Patient Choice’s “How Rebate Walls Block Access to Affordable Drugs,” in which the organization writes: “The company that manufacturers the older drug can ‘bundle’ its rebates for all those prescriptions and use it as a weapon. Some drug companies are using the large group of rebates, also known as a ‘rebate wall,’ as a negotiating tactic—they demand that health plans not favor or exclude newer medicines from their formularies, even if the newer medicines lead to better outcomes. One example of this problem are when Johnson & Johnson used rebate walls to protect its drug Remicade and stifle competition from Pfizer’s Inflectra, a lower-cost biosimilar drug. … How can this be fixed? One possible solution: The Trump administration has announced a proposed rebate rule that eliminates the anti-kickback safe harbor that is currently applied to rebates. Another idea would be indication-based pricing, which is requiring prices and rebates to be negotiated for each drug and not bundled together. And as we mentioned earlier, the Federal Trade Commission could and should forbid drug manufacturers from erecting rebate walls.”
  2. This Federal Reserve interest-raising cycle is not just an ex-post but also an ex-ante mistake. Read Adam Ozimek and Michael Ferlez, “The Fed’s Mistake,” in which they write: “When the Fed faces similar uncertainty in the future, looks back at the decision to start raising rates in 2015, and judges that the path of monetary policy turned out to be optimal, such an assessment will offer support for raising rates. If, instead, the Fed looks back and sees that the path was sub-optimal, such an assessment will offer a cautionary tale … The current Fed estimate of the long-run unemployment rate implies that in December 2015, the gap was 0.55 percentage point instead of 0.1 … The assumption that the LRU will continue to be revised downward is consistent with the pattern over the past few years and is further supported by recent statements from Powell that indicate a strong possibility that LRU will continue to fall. As the best estimates of the long-run unemployment rate fall, the magnitude of the Fed’s ex-ante error will continue to grow … the Fed made a numerically significant error in underestimating the amount of labor market slack.”
  3. Read David Leonhardt, “Trump’s Trade Grade,” in which he writes: “It’s a neat microcosm of President Trump’s economic policy: He picks a yardstick to measure the American economy—the trade deficit—that’s mostly meaningless. He spends years criticizing it as too high and promising to reduce it. And under his administration, it surges.”
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Weekend reading: “it’s all about the measurement” edition

This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth published this week and the second is the work we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

Equitable Growth round-up

In the latest installment of Equitable Growth’s In Conversation series, I chat with Bhash Mazumder, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago about intergenerational mobility—the relationship between a parent and child’s income—why it’s a metric of success for the economy, and the important role social safety net programs play in ensuring that opportunity remains available to all Americans.

The unraveling of the deal for Amazon.com Inc. to build one of its two HQ2s in New York City illustrates the importance of public involvement and feedback in policy decisions, explains University of Texas at Austin political scientist and Equitable Growth grantee Nathan Jensen.  You can learn more about Jensen’s work on the importance of transparency for policymaking in his other columns and working papers for Equitable Growth.

Learning on the job from more experienced coworkers is a huge contributor not only to workers’ individual human capital but also for the U.S. economy’s aggregate human capital stock. In a column explaining the findings of his latest working paper for Equitable Growth’s Working Paper Series, University of Minnesota economist Kyle Herkenhoff argues that policies to incentivize internships, vocational training, mentorships, or apprenticeships that would pair high- and low-skill workers would increase U.S. GDP per capita by approximately 2 percentage points.

A little noticed provision of the legislation that ended the government shutdown in February encourages the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis “to develop and begin reporting on income growth indicators” that show “how incomes grow in each decile of the income distribution.” Austin Clemens explains why measuring how overall economic growth is distributed to different parts of the income spectrum would allow for a more meaningful understanding of how Americans are actually experiencing the economy.

Catch up on Brad DeLong’s latest worthy reads from Equitable Growth and around the web.

On Thursday, Equitable Growth released its latest research in its paid leave research accelerator initiative. In a report and accompanying issue brief, Columbia University School of Social work adjunct instructor Amy Batchelor assesses the range and robustness of the data available for answering questions about how paid leave affects workers, families, employers, and the economy as a whole and offers a blueprint for building the necessary data architecture in order to advance evidence-backed policy.

Also on Thursday, Equitable Growth’s Director of Markets and Competition Policy Michael Kades testified before the House Judiciary Committee at a hearing on the effects of consolidation and anticompetitive conduct in health care markets. In advance of his testimony, Kades published a blog post discussing the lack of competition in the market for prescription drugs and its price consequences.

Earlier this morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data on the U.S. labor market during the month of February.  Check out the most relevant graphs from the data, compiled by Kate Bahn and Will McGrew.

Links from around the web

U.S. birth and fertility rates are at their lowest recorded level, parents make up a smaller share of the U.S. labor force than at any other time in at least a century, and U.S. women’s labor force participation rate has both fallen over the past 20 years and diverged from that of other advanced economies. Analysis suggests that the lack of affordable, universal childcare could be the cause both of women sitting on the sidelines of the labor market and people’s decision to have fewer children. [wapo]

John Oliver explores the impact of automation on jobs and the tasks associated with certain occupations in a segment that includes an interview with Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist and Equitable Growth Research Advisory Board member David Autor. [last week tonight]

The American Family Act, which would dramatically expand the child tax credit, was introduced Wednesday by Senators Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH). The bill would implement one of the recommendations of a new report from the National Academy of Sciences on child poverty, which found that a child allowance would be an evidence-based, high-impact way to cut the child poverty rate. The co-authors of that report included Princeton University economist and Equitable Growth Steering Committee member Janet Currie alongside University of California, Irvine professor of education Greg Duncan and University of Wisconsin-Madison professor of public affairs and economics Tim Smeeding, both of whom are also Equitable Growth grantees, among others. Researchers estimate the bill would cut child poverty from 14.8 percent to 9.5 percent, lifting 4 million children out of poverty.  [vox]

The broader consequences of economic inequality on health and happiness are explored in a segment on PBS’s Newshour, which includes interviews with University of Michigan economists Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers. [pbs]

Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, a theory that governments can run a much higher budget deficit without dire consequences than previously thought, has been getting an increasing amount of attention from economic policy circles over the past few months, especially with the release of the Green New Deal. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers cautions that while perhaps fiscal constraints aren’t as severe as originally thought, nonetheless MMT goes too far. [wapo]

Friday figure

Figure is from “Equitable Growth’s Jobs Day Graphs: February 2019 Report Edition” by Kate Bahn and Will McGrew

Posted in Uncategorized

Equitable Growth’s Jobs Day Graphs: February 2019 Report Edition

Earlier this morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data on the U.S. labor market during the month of February. Below are five graphs compiled by Equitable Growth staff highlighting important trends in the data.

1.

The prime-age employment rate was unchanged in February, reflecting the low growth of payroll employment in the labor market.

2.

The unemployment rate for African Americans and Hispanics continues to be significantly higher than for whites, and appears to have trended upward slightly for African Americans in the past few months.

3.

Wage growth was 3.4% over the year, picking up pace and getting closer to the target for a healthy labor market.

4.

More workers are going directly into jobs after being out of the labor force, demonstrating how a tighter labor market brings people in off the sidelines.

5.

Fewer workers are unemployed due to losing a job, as more workers enter unemployment voluntarily as they leave their jobs or re-enter the labor force.

Posted in Uncategorized

Competition’s role in controlling prescription drug prices



“Competition’s Role in Controlling Prescription Drug Prices”
Michael Kades
Director, Markets and Competition Policy
Washington Center for Equitable Growth

Testimony Before the
Subcommittee on Antitrust, Commercial, and Administrative Law
“Diagnosing the Problem: Exploring the Effects of Consolidation and Anticompetitive Conduct in Health Care Markets”


Thank you Chairman Cicilline, Ranking Member Sensenbrenner, full committee Chairman Nadler and full committee Ranking Member Collins for the honor of testifying before this Subcommittee on competition and prescription drug prices.

My name is Michael Kades, director of Markets and Competition Policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. We seek to advance evidence-backed ideas and policies that promote strong, stable, and broad-based economic growth. Anticompetitive conduct in prescription drugs is emblematic of the kind of inequality that is at the core of the most important challenges facing our economy and our nation.

Health care costs in general, and prescription drugs specifically, are, and will continue to be, a major burden on American families, employers, and taxpayers. In 2017, the United States spent $333 billion on prescription drugs, accounting for roughly 1 out of every 10 dollars spent on health care.4 This challenge is not simply about costs. When prescription drugs cost too much, it affects the patient, not just her pocketbook. Thirty percent of Americans are not taking their prescriptions as directed due to costs.5 Behind these numbers are real people facing real problems such as Adalyn Watts, who, on a fixed income, can’t afford her insulin and still buy food and pay the rent.6

There is no silver bullet to controlling prescription drug costs. Rather, it will take a broad range of policies to address the problem. Within that context, competition can play a vital role in promoting the development of new drugs and controlling costs. In 1984, Congress passed the Hatch-Waxman Act, which spurred both innovation and price competition by creating a pathway for the approval of generic drugs. Today, however, competition is broken. It has become far too easy for companies to manipulate the system to delay competition and increase prescription drug costs.

Delaying and suppressing competition in prescriptions can be enormously profitable, increasing the cost of prescription drugs by millions of dollars a year and preventing competition for years. Unless a strong deterrent exists, many companies will see antitrust liability simply as a cost of doing business. Yet even as the public and Congress are turning their attention to high prescription drug costs, the federal courts have questioned and limited the Federal Trade Commission’s ability to deprive defendants of the profits they earn by violating the Federal Trade Commission Act.

Allowing companies to engage in anticompetitive activity also may undermine innovation. If a company can maintain its monopoly by excluding competition or by paying off a competitor, then it will have less incentive to innovate. This is likely to be a particular problem in pharmaceutical markets. Oftentimes, a small tweak to a product will extend the exclusivity of a product for years at little cost. Instead of undertaking costly and risky research that could lead to a breakthrough, companies may rely on anticompetitive conduct to protect their profits.

There are three simple policy proposals that could bolster competition in pharmaceutical markets.

  • Stopping Strategies that Delay Generic Approvals: This Subcommittee, along with the Senate Judiciary Committee, has been a leader in addressing sample blockades and safety protocol filibusters. The CREATES Act would stop both practices.
  • Stopping Pay-for-Delay Agreements: Despite the U.S. Supreme Court’s clear signal in the Actavis case that pay-for-delay can be anticompetitive, the FTC continues to spend substantial resources and time challenging clear violations. Tougher laws such as the Preserve Access to Affordable Generics Act would deter such conduct and free up limited resources to attack other anticompetitive conduct.
  • Restore and Confirm the Federal Trade Commission’s Disgorgement Authority: A relatively simple modification to the Federal Trade Commission Act would clarify the FTC’s authority to deprive companies of any illegal profits they earned—authority that is critical to deterring highly profitable but anticompetitive conduct.

I make these recommendations based on my career spent fighting anticompetitive practices in the health care industry and elsewhere. For 20 years at the Federal Trade Commission, much of my time was spent on the frontline of what has been, and continues to be, a never-ending struggle to protect competition in pharmaceutical markets.

In principle, the antitrust laws stand as a bulwark against anticompetitive conduct. But the courts have increasingly stripped those antitrust laws of their potency. With few exceptions, courts have imposed ever higher burdens of proof on the government, creating incentives for companies to violate the antitrust laws. What should be easy cases have become difficult to prove, and many types of conduct escape condemnation. As a result, companies are emboldened to push the limits of business conduct because the rewards are great and the risks of liability are low. All the while, consumers are paying the price with higher drug costs.

Over the course of my career I have seen the power of antitrust enforcement to protect consumers from activity that, when left unchecked, costs consumers millions and puts lives at risk, and what happens when courts circumscribe antitrust doctrine and cripple enforcement. As a young attorney, I was part of the FTC team that successfully challenged a generic company’s strategy to lock-up a key supply ingredient on three drugs and raise prices by more than 2,000 percent, thus earning more than $100 million in illegal profits. I played a leading role in the FTC case challenging Schering-Plough’s $60 million payment to a potential competitor to delay its entry, which protected close to $1 billion in revenue for Schering-Plough’s branded K-Dur product. Unfortunately, the federal courts initially decided that the branded companies could pay to eliminate potential competition, at least until the patent expired, legitimizing what came to be known as pay-for-delay patent settlements.

Then, as an attorney advisor to Federal Trade Commissioner, and later, FTC Chairman Jon Leibowitz, I coordinated the Federal Trade Commission’s strategy to stop this practice, which delayed cost-saving competition by, on average, 17 months and cost consumers $3.5 billion a year.7 After a concerted, decade-long effort that involved virtually all parts of the agency, the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division and the Solicitor General’s Office, the Supreme Court in Federal Trade Commission v. Actavis8 held that such agreements can violate the antitrust laws. Although the decision prevents the worst-case scenario, it is taking years—and, in a recent case, a decade—for the FTC to obtain relief in even the most blatant pay-for-delay case.

Even as the Federal Trade Commission made progress on stopping pay-for-delay patent settlements, companies found new ways to subvert competition. Two related tactics are sample blockades and safety protocol filibusters. FDA approval to sell a generic drug requires a company to prove that its product is the same as the branded drug product by comparing its product to the branded product.9 Certain branded pharmaceutical companies are preventing companies from obtaining branded samples, which prevents the generic manufacturer from obtaining approval to market its product. Relatedly, in certain circumstances, the law requires the brand company and the generic company to negotiate safety protocols. Some branded companies filibuster these negotiations. As Deputy Chief Trial Counsel for the Bureau of Competition, I worked on investigations into, and cases challenging, branded companies’ use of these tactics to delay competition.

My testimony begins by describing generic drug competition, the unique role it plays in controlling the prices for prescription drugs, how that competition is fragile, and how it can easily be disrupted by anticompetitive practices. Then, I propose three policy reforms that will bolster competition and deliver more affordable medicine to consumers and save lives. My comments will be motivated by a simple idea: the focus of policy should be to understand the experiences of—and improve the living standards of—American families, particularly middle-class families and families striving to reach the middle class.

A. The Nature of Competition in Pharmaceutical Markets Creates Incentives to Delay and Prevent Competition

Competition plays a unique and fragile role in determining prescription drug costs: Unique because competition from generic alternatives are the only competition that dramatically reduces costs, and fragile because this competitive dynamic can be circumvented in many ways.

Prescription drugs fall into two broad categories. The more traditional and common ones are called small molecule drugs (ibuprofen, antibiotics, etc.). A newer but growing category is biologics, which are protein-based and derived from living matter or manufactured in living cells using recombinant DNA biotechnologies (Humira).10

1. Generic Competition for Small Molecule Drugs

The impact of the Hatch-Waxman Act on competition for small molecule drugs cannot be overstated. Prior to its passage, few generics were available. Today, generic competition has a dramatic impact. As Figure 1 shows, in a matter of months (and sometimes even faster), a generic drug takes the vast share of the branded product’s sales. This phenomenon is similar for almost all small molecule drugs. Figure 1 depicts a generic entry event that occurred in 1999. Currently, a generic product gains market share at even a faster rate than in the late 1990s: Now, a generic product, on average, captures 90 percent of the market within a year of entering the market,11 and the branded company’s profits plummet. Simply delaying generic competition can be very profitable.

Figure 1

Both generic companies and consumers, however, benefit from competition. As Figure 2 shows, generic competition leads to substantial price decreases. Eventually those prices fall to roughly 15 percent of the branded price.12 While generic companies earn profits, the big winners are consumers, who end up receiving the same therapeutic benefit at a far lower cost.

Critically, price competition, whether for small molecule drugs or biologics, comes from a limited set of potential competitors. And the incentives to prevent that competition are large.

Figure 2

2. Biosimilar Competition for Biologics

Biologics drugs such as Humira represent an increasingly large portion of prescription drug costs, accounting for 25 percent of all prescription drug sales in 2016.13 They offer great promise in combating debilitating and rare diseases.14 But they tend to be very expensive, costing patients tens, or even hundreds, of thousands of dollars per year.

In 2010, in the Biologics Price Competition and Innovation Act, Congress attempted to create a similar competitive dynamic for biologics that exists for small molecule drugs. The act created an abbreviated path for approval of biosimilar drugs. Like generics, biosimilars have no clinically meaningful difference from the corresponding biologic drug.15 Biosimilar drugs, however, are more expensive to develop than generic small molecule products, and they require more testing. And, as of yet, none are deemed interchangeable. Even when BPCIA was enacted, experts expected that biosimilar production would be priced at less of a discount and achieve a lower level of market penetration than generic small molecule drugs. 16 With many biologics having high prices and large revenues—Humira sales exceed $13 billion, Enbrel sales fall just short of $5 billion, Rituxan sales exceed $4 billion—biosimilar competition can save hundreds of millions of dollars per year per drug even if the biosimilar product is priced at a modest discount (25 percent) and gains only a modest share (30 percent).17

So far, in the United States, experience has not lived up to those expectations. The European Union approved18 its first biosimilar in 2006, but the FDA did not approve a biosimilar until 2015. Today, according to NPR,19 Europeans have access to some 50 biosimilars. The FDA has approved 17 biosimilars, and only seven are on the market.20 In Europe, biosimilars accounted for more than 25 percent of reference molecule share for Remicade within 2 years of launching (which has risen to more than 60 percent). In contrast, in the United States, biosimilar versions of Remicade account for just 7 percent of the market after 2 years.21 Although a biosimilar version of Humira will not be available in the United States until 2023, competition from biosimilars in Europe forced AbbVie to lower Humira’s price 80 percent.22

Biosimilars are delivering significant savings in Europe but not in the United States. There are many reasons for the lack of success in the United States, which Professor Scott-Morton discusses. A successful biosimilar market must develop in the United States in order to control prescription drug costs.

Critically, price competition, whether for small molecule drugs or biologics, comes from a limited set of potential competitors. And the incentives to prevent that competition are large.

That competitive dynamic is fragile because there are many decisionmakers and overlapping legal and regulatory structures. Successful competition means the product has obtained approval from the Food and Drug Administration, has gotten a preferred status on the insurer’s formulary, and a doctor, who has little or no financial incentive, has prescribed it.23 If competition breaks down at any point in that chain, prescription drug costs increase.

B. Breaking the Chain: Preventing Approval of Generic or Biosimilars through Sample Blockades and Filibustered Negotiations

Obviously, a product without FDA approval cannot compete in the marketplace. If the company cannot satisfy the FDA’s requirements, then the system is working as it should. Yet some branded companies have found two ways to manipulate the system to prevent generic approvals: through sample blockades and filibustered negotiations.

1. Sample Blockade

If a company seeking approval for a generic drug (or a biosimilar) cannot obtain samples of the branded product, then it cannot perform the testing required to obtain approval. No samples; no testing; no FDA approvals, all of which means no competition and higher prescription drug prices.

Typically, companies seeking to develop a generic drug or biosimilar product obtain samples from drug wholesalers. In the case of a restricted or closed distribution system, the branded company is the only source for the sample. Some companies simply refuse to sell the sample to a potential competitor, thereby protecting the branded franchise. This strategy can delay competition for years—and sometimes for a decade or longer. For example, Mylan Pharmaceuticals alleges that it tried, unsuccessfully, to buy samples for Thalomid beginning in 2004 and for Revlimid in 2008, drugs both subject to Risk Evaluation Mitigation Strategy, or REMS, but the manufacturer, Celgene, refused.24 In 2014, Mylan sued Celgene25 in a case that is scheduled to go to trial this year.

This strategy arose from a manipulation of the REMS systems.26 Some drug products present unique dangers, and the FDA imposes additional safety requirements to ensure that the drug’s benefits outweigh its risks.27 The most restrictive of these requires a closed distribution system in which the manufacturer may not sell through normal distribution channels (through wholesalers). Instead it sells directly to pharmacies or through a specified distributor.28 REMS systems with restricted distribution revealed that a branded company could easily prevent a generic company from obtaining samples. Over time, some companies have taken the position that REMS or not, a company has no obligation to provide its product to companies seeking to market a competing product.29 According to the FDA, 28 out of 54 products in which drug companies cannot obtain samples are products with no REMS requirement.30

2. Safety Protocol Filibusters

The second tactic occurs only with drugs subject to a REMS. By law, when a company seeks approval to sell a generic version of a branded drug subject to a REMS, there is a presumption that the branded company and the generic companies should develop a shared REMS distribution system and a shared set of safety protocols for the distribution of the drug, known as a single-shared REMS.31 Before receiving FDA approval, the generic must reach an agreement with the branded company on the shared system or seek a waiver of the requirement from the FDA. The branded company, which is already approved and on market with its REMS distribution system, by contrast, faces no repercussions for refusing to negotiate. Dragging out negotiations delays approval of the generic product and protects the branded company’s profits.

The presumption has failed. Since Congress created the presumption of a single-shared REMS system more than a decade ago, the FDA has approved only one single-shared REMS system where the generic product was not on the market.32 Two examples stand out. In the case of Suboxone, a drug used to treat opioid addiction, the branded company allegedly delayed negotiations of a shared REMS so that it could switch its franchise to a new form of the drug that insulated its $1.5 billion franchise from generic competition.33 For more than 3 years, generic companies tried unsuccessfully to negotiate a shared REMS system with Jazz Pharmaceutical for Xyrem, a billion-dollar drug used to treat narcolepsy, before the FDA granted a waiver from the shared REMS requirement.34

In some cases, the generic may not have received approval even without these delay tactics. But it makes little sense for a monopolist to serve as the gatekeeper for competition.

3. Failed Solutions

These strategies are neither new nor unexpected. Congress has said explicitly that a company shall not use a REMS system to “block or delay approval” of an ANDA.35 But the statute provides no enforcement mechanism. On multiple occasions, the FDA has tried to address the situation. In response to branded companies’ arguments that generics would adopt insufficient safety precautions in their testing, the FDA began reviewing generic companies’ testing procedures. If the FDA is satisfied, it will send a letter confirming that the generic companies’ protocols contain safety protections comparable to the applicable REMS for the branded drug. Further, the letter states that selling product to the generic company would not violate the applicable REMS.36 Finally, starting last year, the FDA began disclosing all drugs for which a potential generic company has said that it could not obtain the branded product.37 Disclosure has had little impact. The current list identifies more than 170 inquiries covering more than 50 products.38

Monopolization is illegal under Section 2 of the Sherman Act, and this tactic should fall within the scope of Section 2. Over the past two decades, however, the Supreme Court has significantly limited the scope of monopolization law, in particular for monopolists’ refusals to deal with competitors.39 Although the Federal Trade Commission has argued in Amicus Briefs that refusing to provide samples could violate the antitrust laws, it has not brought an enforcement action.40 Some private action, antitrust cases have survived motions to dismiss and summary judgment. No case has been successfully litigated to judgment. At best, antitrust enforcement in this area takes years, by which time the conduct may have achieved its goal.

4. The CREATES Act: A Practical Solution

The Creating and Restoring Equal Access to Equivalent Samples (CREATES) Act,41 a bipartisan bill introduced by the Chairman and Ranking members of the House Judiciary Committee and the Antitrust subcommittee, is a practical and narrowly tailored solution to these problems.42 First, a generic or biosimilar developer could sue a branded company for samples if the product is not available in the normal channels of commerce and the branded company has refused to sell to the developer. If successful, the court would order the branded company to sell sufficient samples to the generic company for testing purposes. To ensure the branded company does not simply force every generic competitor to bring an action, the bill provides for attorney fees for the plaintiff if successful. And the court assesses a penalty if the branded company lacks a legitimate business reason for refusing to sell the samples or if it fails to obey the court order to sell the product. Second, the bill would eliminate the presumption in favor of a shared REMS.

This solution is simpler than requiring the FDA to wade into commercial disputes between private parties. Also, the remedies are narrower than under the antitrust laws. A clear rule bolstered by a simple enforcement mechanism will eliminate the incentive and ability for companies to use a sample blockade to delay entry.

Objections to the bill are unfounded. Taking a step back, bioequivalency and biosimilar testing, which is the issue being addressed in the CREATES Act, occurs in a tightly controlled setting and involves a relatively small number of samples. The FDA estimates the testing requires roughly 1,500 to 5,000 units (capsules or tablets) and relatively few subjects. That setting presents a lower level of risk than occurs in the real world with everyday use by patients, which are situations that REMS address.43

Some have argued that the bill eliminates the FDA’s authority to ensure that testing procedures are safe and will pose a danger because some drug developers will mishandle the samples during the testing process. The FDA flatly disagrees: “The CREATES Act would—appropriately—leave unchanged FDA’s authority to ensure that generic developers are using acceptable safety standards in bioequivalence testing.”44 The FDA would have the same authority and responsibility to ensure safety as it does currently. Section 3(b)(2(B) of the CREATES Act requires drug developers to obtain FDA approval for its bioequivalent or biosimilar testing before it can bring an action for samples for any drug subject to a REMS. Further, the FDA can impose any requirement it deems necessary.

Enacting the bill will not lead to frivolous litigation. The primary relief is that the plaintiff will receive enough samples to conduct the necessary testing for FDA approval. Only a company with the interest and capacity in developing and marketing a generic or biosimilar product will benefit from this injunctive relief. Nor will the penalty provision trigger frivolous lawsuits. A defendant can always avoid the monetary award by simply supplying the drug. Further, the monetary penalty occurs only if the defendant has no legitimate business reason for having refused to sell the samples to the plaintiff. The penalty provision will deter companies from abusing the system.

Without any deterrence, some companies might simply require every generic company to sue them before providing the samples, which would defeat the purpose of the bill. Others have suggested that the penalty should go to the U.S. Treasury, either in whole or in part. Such a change would diminish or eliminate the incentive of the plaintiff to undertake the additional and difficult burden of establishing that the penalties are merited. Similarly, giving the FTC the responsibility to enforce the statute or to obtain monetary penalties would force the agency to choose between its broader mission or spend significant resources enforcing this one issue.

A monetary penalty may not be only the deterrence that could work. Alternatively, another possible penalty would be to reduce the branded company’s exclusivity by some multiple of the days that the branded company did not provide the samples.

C. Breaking the Chain: Pay-for-Delay Patent Settlements

The competition chain also breaks if a branded company pays the generic or biosimilar company to delay launching its competitive product. These agreements arise in patent litigation. The branded company has sued the generic company for patent infringement. If the brand wins the litigation, the generic company cannot enter the market, and the brand keeps its monopoly profits. If the generic wins, it can enter the market. The brand quickly loses sales as described in Section A1. The generic earns a profit—but far less than what the brand earned—and consumers pay lower prices.

Beginning in the 1990s, a new form of settlement arose. The brand company would eliminate the potential for competition and pay the generic company not to market its product for a period of time. This strategy circumvents the Hatch-Waxman structure to encourage competition. Both the branded and generic company profit at the expense of the consumers.

1. The Problem

The antitrust battle over these settlements has raged for more than 15 years. In a series of decisions that began in 2003, various courts concluded that this practice was acceptable.45 In these courts’ view, the fact that the branded company’s patent might exclude the generic meant that the branded company could pay the generic not to compete for any period of time until the patent expired.

These rulings had a devastating impact on generic competition. The number of potential pay-for-delay deals increased from zero in fiscal year 2004 to a high of 40 in fiscal year 2012.46 On average, these deals delayed generic competition by 17 months and increased total prescription drug costs by $3.5 billion a year.

These cases reveal the powerful incentives for branded and generic companies alike. Branded companies are calculating how much the generic could earn by competing and compensating them for not competing. Take the FTC’s case against Schering-Plough and Upsher-Smith. The case involved Schering’s branded product, K-Dur 20, a potassium supplement. Schering alleged that Upsher’s generic version would infringe the patent on the coating of its K-Dur product. Under the settlement, Upsher agreed to stay off the market for 4 years. In addition, Schering paid Upsher $60 million. Upsher also gave Schering the rights to sell four unrelated products outside of North America. Figure 3 shows a page from a document presented to Schering’s board that describes the settlement. The board was told explicitly that the payments were to replace the income Upsher would have made selling the generic product.47

Figure 3

In the Androgel litigation,48 the FTC challenged a settlement in which Watson Pharmaceuticals, the generic company, agreed to keep its generic Androgel product off the market until 2015. Until then, Watson would market Solvay’s branded product and receive a royalty on the branded product’s sales. Instead of trying to take sales from the monopolist, Watson would be trying to increase them; Watson was literally sharing in Solvay’s monopoly profits. Figure 4 is an excerpt from a Solvay document analyzing potential settlements with the co-promotion agreement. The left column shows the date of generic competition. Not surprisingly, the later competition occurs, the more Solvay earns (the Solvay NPV) and the less Watson makes (“Generic column”). The Watson carve-out column shows how much Watson will make from the co-promotion. The later the generic competition occurs, the more Watson makes on promoting branded Androgel. Indeed, with a share of branded Solvay’s Androgel profits, Watson would make the same profit whether it launches a generic in 2011 or 2015. Consumers, who do not appear in the document, are worse off, as they lose the benefit of competition for 4 years.

Figure 4

2. The Supreme Court’s Partial Solution

In 2013, in the Androgel case (FTC v. Actavis), the Supreme Court rejected the lenient view that patent holders could simply pay potential infringers to stay off the market. According to the Supreme Court, an agreement in which the branded and generic companies eliminate potential competition and share the resulting monopoly profits likely violates the antitrust laws, absent some justification.49 The Supreme Court’s decision has limited pay-for-delay deals. In fiscal year 2015, the most recent year of reported data, the number of potential pay-for-delay deals fell to 14.50

That success has been incomplete, and it overlooks the cost of enforcement. The Supreme Court approach requires a case-by-case analysis of a practice that virtually always is anticompetitive. That allows companies to find new ways to hide compensation or offer a plethora of alternative justifications for their conduct. Based on the past mistakes and some open hostility to the Supreme Court’s decision, courts could accept one of these defenses and create a costly loophole. Some courts are openly hostile to the Supreme Court’s decision.51

Further, the approach is resource intensive. The FTC has had to litigate multiple pay-for-delay cases since the Supreme Court’s decision. As former Acting Chairman Maureen Ohlhausen explains, for first 2 years after the Androgel decision, the commission was “relegated to damage control,” having to file “ a series of amicus briefs across the country to rectify misconceptions.”52 Indeed, the FTC finally resolved the Androgel case itself last week, almost 6 years after the Supreme Court decision allowing the case to go forward and more than a decade after the case was filed.

3. Lessons From the Fight Over Pay-for-Delay Settlements

First, pay-for-delay underscores how strong the incentives are for companies to eliminate competition, which benefits them but harms consumers. Further, branded and generic companies are aware of those incentives and act on them.

Second, antitrust rules matter. When courts treated pay-for-delay agreements as legal, their use skyrocketed. (See Figure 5.) When the Supreme Court rejected that approach, their use declined, but they are still occurring.

Figure 5

Third, although the current Supreme Court rule on pay-for-delay settlements protects competition better than the lower courts had, it still has required the FTC to spend substantial resources to prevent clearly anticompetitive conduct.

Congress should pass legislation that creates a strong presumption against pay-for-delay deals such as the Preserve Access to Affordable Generics Act.53 Not only would such legislation stop the practice. It also would free up resources so that the FTC could investigate and challenge other anticompetitive activity in the pharmaceutical industry.

D. Stopping Anticompetitive Conduct Before it Starts: The Need for Strong Deterrence

Some practices such as pay-for-delay and sample blockades can be addressed through industry-specific legislation, as I have discussed. But Congress cannot legislate a specific statute for every type of conduct. Over the years, the courts have limited the reach of the antitrust laws, particularly regarding conduct by monopolists or vertical agreements (those that are between actors at different levels of the supply chain such as a branded manufacturer and a Pharmacy Benefit Manager).54 This development is problematic in the context of pharmaceutical markets. When combined with the substantial benefits of limiting generic competition, complex and vague doctrines are an invitation for companies to act on those incentives, which will increase prescription drug pricing.

This dynamic increases the importance of monetary remedies. The Federal Trade Commission has deprived companies of the profits they earned while violating the antitrust laws.55 Recently, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals clipped the FTC’s ability to seek monetary remedies in precisely the type of case where it is most needed.

The FTC alleged that ViroPharma had illegally maintained its monopoly over Vancocin capsules (a drug that treats a potentially life-threatening gastrointestinal infection) by filing sham petitions to delay the approval of generic competition:

ViroPharma illegally maintained its monopoly over Vancocin Capsules by filing 43 repetitive and unsupported (or sham) petitions with the FDA, as well as three lawsuits, between 2006 and 2012, all in an effort to obstruct and delay approval of a generic version of its branded drug. Even after a panel of 16 independent scientific and medical experts convened by the FDA considered and rejected ViroPharma’s unsupported arguments, ViroPharma continued to repeat its rejected arguments, the complaint alleges. The FTC alleged that ViroPharma’s conduct significantly delayed the FDA approval of a generic, costing consumers hundreds of millions of dollars.56

In essence, the FTC alleged that ViroPharma bombarded the FDA with multiple and repetitive requests to make it harder for generic companies to obtain approval. Although the FDA rejected the petitions, the review process itself delayed generic approval.

The allegations, if true, are egregious and without a legitimate justification. Because they involved an attempt to influence the government (petitioning), the government must show that the petitioning is a sham, a high standard of proof.57 Practically, the FTC could not bring a case until the FDA had resolved all, or at least most, of the petitions. At that point, the FDA typically also approves the generic product. The FTC can probably challenge a sham petition case only when the conduct is complete.

The FTC had two choices. It could file an administrative action, in which case the only relief would be a conduct remedy (ordering the defendant not to engage in similar conduct in the future). Or it could file an action in federal court, where it could also seek disgorgement. Because of the allegedly egregious conduct, the profitability of the sham petitioning (hundreds of millions of dollars), and the difficulty of proving the case, it would make little sense to bring a case that did not seek a monetary remedy.

The Third Circuit Court of Appeals recently affirmed the dismissal of the action, holding that the FTC did not allege that ViroPharma “is violating, or is about to violate” the law as required by statute.58 Although one can criticize the decision on multiple grounds, the relevant point for the committee is that, if correct, the decision would severely limit the FTC’s ability to seek monetary remedies in pharmaceutical cases.

The decision essentially puts the FTC in a catch-22. Particularly in a sham petitioning case, if the FTC files the action before the conduct is complete (before the petitions have been denied), then it will be difficult to establish the petitioning is a sham. If the FTC files the case after the conduct is complete, then the defendant will argue that it is no longer violating or about to violate the FTC Act and that, therefore, the FTC cannot bring a case in federal court and cannot seek disgorgement. But a sham petition case is precisely the type of conduct that will be deterred only if there are significant repercussions.

Certainly, other courts have taken a different position. Rather than wait for years as the courts sort through this issue, Congress should clarify that under the Federal Trade Commission Act,59 the FTC can seek a permanent injunction for any violation of the Act, including any ancillary equitable relief such as disgorgement or restitution. Clarifying this authority is critical for the FTC to effectively deter anticompetitive conduct.

E. Conclusion

A lack of competition in pharmaceutical markets contributes to higher prescription drug prices. Because of the unique nature of generic competition, anticompetitive conduct can yield hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in monopoly profits. For consumers, that can mean additional hundreds or thousands of dollars in prescription drug costs each month. Further, over the past four decades, courts have consistently weakened antitrust doctrine, making easy cases difficult to win. As a result, antitrust enforcers have spent significant time and resources to stop even the most egregious violations.

Three policy changes would limit anticompetitive conduct in pharmaceutical markets and bolster competition:

  • Legislation such as the CREATES Act would stop both sample blockades and safety protocol filibusters, which delay competition with no countervailing benefit. The CREATES Act would stop both practices.
  • Legislation such as the Preserve Access to Affordable Generics Act would create a strong presumption against pay-for-delay patent settlements, deterring such agreements and freeing up limited resources to attack other anticompetitive conduct.
  • Legislation to restore and confirm the Federal Trade Commission’s authority, ensuring that the FTC’s enforcement actions have teeth.

Thank you again for the opportunity to testify on this critical issue.

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