Brad DeLong: Worthy reads on equitable growth, September 23–27, 2019

Worthy reads from Equitable Growth:

  1. I wish to once again flag this: Recession Ready. We are not yet out of time to take steps to keep the next U.S. recession from turning into a depression. But the clock is ticking. Here is an issue are in which the sooner we take action, the better. And in this book, we at Equitable Growth and the Hamilton Project have, I think, done a very good job: Read Recession Ready, which begins: “Economic recessions are inevitable and they are painful, with harsh short-term effects on families and businesses and potentially deep long-term impacts on the economy and society. But we can ameliorate some of the next recession’s worst effects and minimize its long-term costs if we adopt smart policies now that will be triggered when its first warning signs appear. Equitable Growth has joined forces with the Hamilton Project to advance a set of specific, evidence-based policy ideas for shortening and easing the impacts of the next recession.”
  2. Read this very nice piece by our young whippersnapper Raksha Kopparam summarizing the strong evidence that societal well-being is badly damaged by yet another pharmaceutical industry market failure. Read her “Killer acquisitions lead to decreased innovation and competition in the U.S. prescription drug market,” in which she writes: “Consolidation in the pharmaceutical industry is probably stifling rather than promoting innovation. Approximately 6 percent of pharmaceutical acquisitions are what the authors refer to as ‘killer acquisitions,’ in which an incumbent firm acquires a product in development that could compete with the incumbent’s own product and then subsequently terminates development of the target firm’s product, thus killing competition and innovation.”
  3. Five years ago, our Steering Committee member Janet Yellen gave a very good talk on building blocks of opportunity in America. Read Janet Yellen, “Perspectives on Inequality and Opportunity from the Survey of Consumer Finances,” in which she said: “[I] identify and discuss four sources of economic opportunity in America—think of them as “building blocks” for the gains in income and wealth that most Americans hope are within reach of those who strive for them. The first two are widely recognized as important sources of opportunity: resources available for children and affordable higher education. The second two may come as more of a surprise: business ownership and inheritances. Like most sources of wealth, family ownership of businesses and inheritances are concentrated among households at the top of the distribution. But both of these are less concentrated and more broadly distributed than other forms of wealth, and there is some basis for thinking that they may also play a role in providing economic opportunities to a considerable number of families below the top.”
  4. Equitable Growth Research Advisory Board member Arindrajit Dube at the University of Massachusetts Amherst writes about his long-time mentor and friend Marty Weitzman, who died by suicide last month.

 

Worthy reads not from Equitable Growth:

  1. One of the most intriguing anomalies in all of behavioral economics is the so-called Monty Hall problem—many people refusing to believe that revealing apparently irrelevant information can and should change your assessment of likelihoods and thus your optimal decision. Perhaps this is because we are wired at a fairly deep level to believe in “no correlation without causation.” We have to see a causal link between two phenomena in order to be willing to believe that they are correlated. Whether that is the explanation or not, it is clear that those of us who are bears of little brain need a lot of systematic help in parsing out issues of causation in complicated systems. And here, Dana Mackenzie and Judea Pearl’s The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect is going to be of enormous help in providing a gentle introduction to the issues and framework for thought. Read a review of the book by the extremely sharp Lisa Goldberg, in which she writes: “Pearl’s co-author Dana Mackenzie spoke on causal inference … It concluded with an image of the first self-driving car to kill a pedestrian … With a lead time of a second and a half, the car identified the object as a pedestrian. When the car attempted to engage its emergency braking system, nothing happened. The NTSB report states that engineers had disabled the system in response to a preponderance of false positives in test runs. The engineers were right, of course, that frequent, abrupt stops render a self-driving car useless. Mackenzie gently and optimistically suggested that endowing the car with a causal model that can make nuanced judgments about pedestrian intent might help … Professor Judea Pearl has given us an elegant, powerful, controversial theory of causality. How can he give his theory the best shot at changing the way we interpret data? There is no recipe for doing this, but teaming up with science writer and teacher Dana Mackenzie, a scholar in his own right, was a pretty good idea.”
  2. Are the unmeasured societal well-being benefits of new technologies 0.02 percent a year, or 0.1 percent, 0.5 percent, or perhaps 2.5 percent or more? I tend to be on the side something between 0.5 percent and 2.5 percent—the fact that people with a poverty-line income of $25,000 for a family of four seem, to me, to live better than people with the same nominal income in any past generation is, for me, dispositive. Public and private health, entertainment, and information technologies are “seismic,” and seem, to me, to have overwhelmed the rest. But here we have smart people disagreeing. Plus—an issue that they do not raise—is Facebook actually a net plus? You can make the case that it has not been. Read Erik Brynjolfsson, Avinash Collis, W. Erwin Diewert, Felix Eggers, and Kevin J. Fox, “GDP-B: Accounting for the Value of New and Free Goods in the Digital Economy,” in which they write: “The welfare contributions of the digital economy, characterized by the proliferation of new and free goods, are not well-measured in our current national accounts. We derive explicit terms for the welfare contributions of these goods and introduce a new metric, GDP-B, which quantifies their benefits, rather than costs. We apply this framework to several empirical examples, including Facebook and smartphone cameras, and estimate their valuations through incentive compatible choice experiments. For example, including the welfare gains from Facebook would have added between 0.05 and 0.11 percentage points to GDP-B growth per year in the United States.”
  3. The extremely smart Ricardo Hausmann has good ideas for the reform of public policy school education. Read his “Don’t Blame Economics, Blame Public Policy,” in which he writes: “Public policy schools, which typically have a strong economics focus, must now rethink the way they teach students—and medical schools could offer a model to follow … Economics is to public policy what physics is to engineering, or biology to medicine. While physics is fundamental to the design of rockets that can use energy to defy gravity, Isaac Newton was not responsible for the Challenger space shuttle disaster. Nor was biochemistry to blame for Michael Jackson’s death. Physics, biology, and economics, as sciences, answer questions about the nature of the world … generating … propositional knowledge. Engineering, medicine, and public policy, on the other hand, answer questions about how to change the world … Although engineering schools teach physics and medical schools teach biology, these professional disciplines have grown separate from their underlying sciences … Public policy schools, by contrast, have not undergone an equivalent transformation … Policy experience before achieving professorial tenure is discouraged and rare. And even tenured faculty have surprisingly limited engagement with the world, owing to prevailing hiring practices and a fear that engaging externally might entail reputational risks for the university. To compensate for this, public policy schools hire professors of practice, such as me, who have acquired prior policy experience elsewhere … The teaching-hospital model could be effective in public policy … Consider, for example, Harvard University’s Growth Lab, which I founded in 2006 after two highly fulfilling policy engagements in El Salvador and South Africa.”
  4. This is absolutely brilliant, and quite surprising to me. I had imagined that most of discrimination in the aggregate was the result of a thumb placed lightly on the scale over and over and over again. Patrick Kline and Christopher Walters present evidence that, at least in employment, it is very different—that a relatively small proportion of employers really, really discriminate massively, and that most follow race-neutral procedures and strategies. Read Patrick Kline and Christopher Walters, “Audits as Evidence: Experiments, Ensembles, and Enforcement,” in which they write: “We develop tools for utilizing correspondence experiments to detect illegal discrimination by individual employers. Employers violate U.S. employment law if their propensity to contact applicants depends on protected characteristics such as race or sex. We establish identification of higher moments of the causal effects of protected characteristics on callback rates as a function of the number of fictitious applications sent to each job ad. These moments are used to bound the fraction of jobs that illegally discriminate. Applying our results to three experimental datasets, we find evidence of significant employer heterogeneity in discriminatory behavior, with the standard deviation of gaps in job-specific callback probabilities across protected groups averaging roughly twice the mean gap. In a recent experiment manipulating racially distinctive names, we estimate that at least 85 percent of jobs that contact both of two white applications and neither of two black applications are engaged in illegal discrimination. To assess more carefully the tradeoff between type I and II errors presented by these behavioral patterns, we consider the performance of a series of decision rules for investigating suspicious callback behavior under a simple two-type model that rationalizes the experimental data. Though, in our preferred specification, only 17 percent of employers are estimated to discriminate on the basis of race, we find that an experiment sending 10 applications to each job would enable accurate detection of 7 percent to 10 percent of discriminators while falsely accusing fewer than 0.2 percent of nondiscriminators.”
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Weekend reading: “ Increasing public investment” edition

This is a post we publish each Friday with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth published this week and the second is relevant and interesting articles we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

Equitable Growth round-up

The evidence is clear: Public investment is an essential driver of productivity and economic growth. Sadly, the evidence also is clear that levels of U.S. public investment have now dropped to a point not seen in decades, at a time when it is most critical due to rapidly growing economic inequality. Policymakers can reverse this trend via two key pathways—investments in infrastructure and human capital—in order to boost private-sector spending in these areas as well, writes Somin Park. And, Park continues, given the current low interest-rate environment, the U.S. government should capitalize on this moment to deliver higher growth and lower inequality for everyone.

Is competition or a monopoly better at spurring innovation? The age-old question gets an answer—at least, in terms of the pharmaceutical industry—in a new working paper that looks at so-called killer acquisitions, in which an incumbent firm acquires a potentially competitive product while it’s in development and subsequently terminates the development of that product. This consolidation is probably stifling innovation, rather than boosting it, writes Raksha Kopparam in a blog post describing the working paper and its findings. Because killer acquisitions typically occur when the incumbent drug-maker has significant market power, the acquisitions are likely to prevent innovation and competition in the very markets where a new drug would have the most impact. Enforcers should be aware of this as they review these types of transactions, Kopparam concludes, to help patients access new and better products at lower costs.

Links from around the web

With Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) this week releasing his plan for taxing wealth, the idea of increasing taxes on the richest Americans appears to be catching on with candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination. Though Sen. Sanders’ proposal, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) before it, would face major political hurdles prior to a potential enactment, “these proposals represent the broadest rethinking of tax policy in decades,” write Nelson D. Schwartz and Guilbert Gates in The New York Times. But, they ask, how would the ideas with the most traction at the moment—implementing a wealth tax, raising the marginal tax rate, increasing the estate tax, and rethinking the capital gains tax—actually work?

Earlier this week, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) unveiled a package of bills aimed at cutting poverty in the United States by expanding access to federal benefits and updating the federal poverty line to include expenses such as childcare and internet access, as well as adjusting the poverty limit based on a person’s location. “If we can acknowledge how many Americans are actually in poverty, I think that we can start to address some of the more systemic issues in our economy,” Rep. Ocasio-Cortez told NPR’s Steve Inskeep this week. For the record, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that approximately 40 million Americans live in poverty, including more than 13 million children.

The federal family and medical leave system in the United States has not changed since President Bill Clinton signed the Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993—more than 26 years ago—and that law leaves much to be desired, writes Daria Dawson for Essence. For one thing, it only provides 12 weeks of unpaid leave to a very restricted group of workers. “Paid leave is not just a women’s issue. Nor just a white women’s issue. Nor just a family issue. It is a healthcare issue. It is an economic issue,” and, she continues, “paid leave is an issue that voters care very deeply about.” So, why is it that only 15 percent of American workers have access to a paid family leave program through their employers? As Dawson concludes, it’s time to give federal family and medical leave a 21st century makeover.

Under current law, the secretary of Health and Human Services is unable to negotiate directly on the costs of prescription drugs covered by Medicare, which leads to higher drug costs for patients because private insurers don’t have the same leverage that the federal government does in these negotiations. But a new bill proposed by House Democrats seeks to change this practice for up to 250 of the most expensive drugs without generic or biosimilar competition while also penalizing companies that refuse to negotiate with HHS. The bill comes amid increasing bipartisan momentum on the topic of prescription drug regulation, reports Li Zhou for Vox, largely due to voter pressure on lawmakers to act.

Noncompete agreements hinder millions of U.S. workers from accessing better jobs and lower the wages of these workers by reducing competition. A handful of states have banned noncompete agreements, including Oregon, which passed a law in 2008 to prevent the practice across the board—and a recent study shows that wages for workers no longer bound by noncompete clauses increased by as much as 21 percent as a result. “Put plainly,” writes The New York Times Editorial Board in a piece lamenting the broad use of noncompetes, “the old rule allowed employers to suppress their workers’ pay.”

Friday Figure

Figure is from Equitable Growth’s “Public investment is crucial to strengthening U.S. economic growth and tackling inequality,” by Somin Park.

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Killer acquisitions lead to decreased innovation and competition in the U.S. prescription drug market

There is a long-running debate in economics about whether monopolies or competition spur innovation. This debate is sometimes known as the Schumpeter-Arrow debate after the views of Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter, who argued monopolies promote innovation, and Nobel Prize economist Kenneth Arrow, who argued that competition drives innovation. In their new working paper, “Killer Acquisitions,” co-authors Colleen Cunningham of the London School of Business and Florian Ederer and Song Ma, both of the Yale School of Management, take a look at today’s U.S. pharmaceutical industry to assess how acquisitions play into this debate today.

The co-authors find that consolidation in the pharmaceutical industry is probably stifling rather than promoting innovation. Approximately 6 percent of pharmaceutical acquisitions are what the authors refer to as “killer acquisitions,” in which an incumbent firm acquires a product in development that could compete with the incumbent’s own product and then subsequently terminates development of the target firm’s product, thus killing competition and innovation.

An example of this kind of acquisition that the three researchers examined is Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s acquisition of the drug Synacthen from Novartis International AG of Switzerland. United States-based Questcor in 2000 held a monopoly over an adrenocorticotropic hormone drug called Acthar, the then-dominant treatment for rare epileptic diseases such as infantile spasms. In 2000, Acthar was priced at roughly $40 a vial. In the mid-2000s, however, Novartis began developing Synacthen, a synthetic version of Acthar. In 2013, Questcor acquired the production rights for Synacthen and shut down development of the drug shortly thereafter.

As a competitor to Acthar, Synacthen would have been a cheaper alternative that would have taken away significant market share from Questcor. Today, Acthar costs $39,000 a vial, which is a 97,000 percent increase in price over 19 years.

Cunningham, Ederer, and Ma examined how common this type of acquisition is in the U.S. pharmaceutical industry. They find that a pharmaceutical company with an existing product has less incentive to undertake the costs of developing a competing product than to acquire a new product if the new product competes with its existing product. The new product, if successful, could be due to the cannibalized sales of the company’s existing product or the firm could have an incentive to purchase the product in development at a competing firm and shut down its development to eliminate a potential competitive threat to its existing product.

Using data on drug development, acquisitions of drug products, and overlap between drugs, the authors find evidence that a number of killer acquisitions such as these examples above are common in the U.S. pharmaceutical industry. Drug companies complete development of only 13.4 percent of projects when there is an overlap with an existing product. Moreover, projects are less likely—28.6 percent, according to the paper—to be completed if an incumbent firm acquires the firm than if a project remains with the original company. These results also hold when compared to acquired projects within the same target firm. Further, the authors reject a variety of alternative explanations for these results such as information asymmetries (buyers acquiring low-quality products, the redeployment of technology or capital toward production, or others).

According to the three co-authors, killer acquisitions harm consumers by eliminating both new products and competition, but they benefit the incumbent firm, the developer, and the other firms in the market. The authors caution, however, that a comprehensive analysis of these types of acquisitions is more complicated. Companies, for example, may undertake more product development if there is a possibility that it can develop a product and sell it to another company. In other words, allowing killer acquisitions by increasing the expected return on innovation may lead to more products overall—even if each individual killer acquisition eliminates competition.

Nevertheless, the authors are doubtful that such an effect justifies allowing killer acquisitions that create “significant ex-post inefficiencies resulting from the protection of market power.” They argue that preventing killer acquisitions would increase competition in the pharmaceutical market today. The more competition there is, the less valuable it is for an incumbent pharmaceutical firm to try to eliminate potential competition, they contend, because in a competitive market, there is less benefit in eliminating a potential additional competitor via acquisition since there are too many remaining competitors.

The three co-authors suspect that this competitive dynamic is likely to be larger than the impact of increased incentives for pharmaceutical companies to try to develop new products in the hope that another company will pursue a killer acquisition. According to their model, killer acquisitions are most likely to occur in markets where the incumbent drug maker has substantial market power. Therefore, these types of acquisitions are likely to prevent innovation and competition in the very markets where a new drug would likely have the most significant impact.

This new working paper has important implications for U.S. competition policy and antitrust enforcement. It suggests enforcers, in the first instance, and courts, in the final instance, should be more skeptical of transactions in which an incumbent pharmaceutical company acquires a product in development that could be a competitive threat. Historically, concerns about potential competition have been secondary in antitrust enforcement. In addition, courts have been skeptical of such theories. Such an approach—particularly in the pharmaceutical industry—may be denying patients new and better products, while increasing the cost of prescription drug prices.

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Public investment is crucial to strengthening U.S. economic growth and tackling inequality

Despite policymakers’ oft-repeated promises of more spending on infrastructure and other key investments, U.S. public investment has reached new lows. Public investment is a key driver of long-term productivity and economic growth. The evidence shows that investments in infrastructure and human capital are critical to ensuring future prosperity in the U.S. economy, particularly when inequality is high. It is time policymakers made a serious commitment to increasing public investment.

Failing to make important public investments dampens overall U.S. productivity and growth and disproportionately hurts low-income families and children. Public investments are critically important now, in a time when economic inequality constricts strong and stable growth by obstructing the supply of people and ideas into the economy and limiting opportunity for those not already at the top.

The decline of public investment and the rise of economic inequality

At around 1.4 percent of Gross Domestic Product, federal investment today stands at the lowest level since 1947. The decline in state investments has been less dramatic but still significant. Spending by state and local governments on all types of capital dropped from its high of 3 percent of GDP in the late 1960s to less than 2 percent now. (See Figure 1.)

Figure 1

Beginning in the mid- to late 1970s, economic inequality also started to increase. The fruits of economic growth accrued disproportionately to those at the top of the income ladder. The most recent data on the distribution of U.S. income by Gabriel Zucman and Emmanuel Saez at the University of California, Berkeley show that the share of total economic income held by the top 10 percent hit 40 percent in 2012, before dropping to 38.4 percent by 2016, the most recent year for which complete income-distribution data are available. The rise of more than 10 percentage points started from lows of around 30 percent in the 1960s and 1970s. (See Figure 2.)

Figure 2

Robust U.S. public spending today is key to future economic growth and prosperity

For strong, stable, and broadly shared U.S. economic growth, federal, state, and local governments must make more investments to ensure that people with talent are able to acquire skills and to access capital. There are two key pathways for this increased public spending on physical capital and on human capital—both of which will build the base upon which private-sector spending can thrive.

Infrastructure

Spending on infrastructure is essential to strong and stable economic growth. There is a long list of pressing infrastructure needs that policymakers can target, including roads and bridges, public transportation, clean air and water systems, and energy-efficient power generation. The state of the country’s infrastructure has a real impact on families’ well-being and the economy’s ability to grow.

It is often poorer areas that are in need of repairing outdated infrastructure, such as aging lead pipes. Five years after the (still ongoing) water crisis in Flint, Michigan began—which occurred when the city switched water sources to reduce deficits—Newark, New Jersey, is now facing a similar crisis, predominantly affecting low-income and black residents. The failure to provide safe and clean water threatens current and future economic growth as lead accumulation harms the immediate well-being of residents, as well as the development of children who will later enter the workforce.

Investment in public transportation is essential to physical access to opportunity and economic mobility. An unreliable and inefficient transportation system not only hurts productivity and economic growth, but also disproportionately impacts low-income families. Research shows that commute times are a strong predictor of upward mobility—stronger than even crime or school test scores. Harvard University’s Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren, alongside UC Berkeley’s Patrick Kline and Emmanuel Saez, find that children from areas where more residents have a long commute to work have a significantly lower chance of moving up the income ladder. Public transportation also determines access to education, healthcare, and other essential services for many families.

The list of the country’s infrastructure needs goes on and on. One-third of interstate highway bridges are more than 50 years old, for example, and need to be repaired or replaced. Nearly one-quarter of the U.S. population lives in low broadband-subscription neighborhoods, where less than 40 percent of residents have access to high-speed internet. Big public construction projects to address these needs, like those undertaken by the Works Progress Administration in the 1930s amid the Great Depression, can create a significant number of well-paying jobs and spur job growth in local economies, especially during an economic downturn.

Human capital

Public investments in education and other investments in human capital have great consequences in an era of high economic inequality. Economists Brad DeLong at UC Berkeley and Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz at Harvard argue that education played a critical role in boosting U.S. economic growth in the 20th century and make the case for more investment:

During the twentieth century, America’s investment in education was a principal source of its extraordinary performance … A renewed commitment to invest in education is probably the most important and fruitful step that federal, state, and local officials can take to sustain American economic growth.

Despite the evidence of positive educational and economic outcomes, public colleges and universities in most states now receive most of their revenue from tuition rather than government funding. Chronic disinvestment in Kindergarten through 12th grade education has also prompted a wave of teacher strikes across the country, as spending levels have still not recovered from deep cuts made during the Great Recession.

Public investment in early childhood programs and high-quality childcare also is critical in sustaining and growing the current and future productivity of the U.S. economy. The steep costs of childcare and education shut out low- and middle-income families and block their children from fully developing their human capital, while those at the top have the resources to safeguard the best environment for their children. Research shows that rising childcare costs drive women out of the workforce because parents come to depend more on informal childcare arrangements that are less reliable. Investing in early childhood care and education also matters for the children and their future outcomes. The failure to invest in a critical stage of human capital development deprives the United States of future workforce productivity.

What’s more, investment in low-income children often more than pays for itself because it raises their future earnings and decreases their dependence on public aid, as new research shows. Examining 133 policy changes from the past five decades, Harvard economists Nathaniel Hendren and Ben Sprung-Keyser conclude that programs for low-income children have the highest return on government investment. With the caveat that return on investment is just one measure of success, the authors find that the investments in children’s health and education they examine were fully repaid and with surplus. They also find investment in children through young adulthood continues to generate positive results.

Private investment

Public investments pave the way for private-sector innovation and growth. Many of the biggest advances in economic productivity, innovation, and technological capacity have been the result of government action.

The internet was originally a project funded by the Department of Defense, and NASA maintains a catalogue of thousands of technologies that became commercial products. The Apollo Space program, which sent the first astronauts to the moon 50 years ago, helped accelerate innovation and create technologies that had widespread use and application. They included the integrated circuit—the basis of what is in computer chips today—which helped launch Silicon Valley and the computer revolution.

In her book The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths, University College London economist Mariana Mazzucato highlights the role of government investment at the heart of major technological breakthroughs, noting that Apple Inc. and other successful private companies owe much of their value to government-supported research and development. Nearly all the technologies in the iPhone—including GPS navigation, voice recognition, and touchscreen capabilities—were developed through government investments, while Alphabet Inc.’s Google search engine algorithm was funded by the National Science Foundation. It’s evident that public investment encourages and facilitates innovation in the private sector.

Conclusion

Given the current low interest-rate environment, the U.S. government should capitalize on the low costs of borrowing by making big investments now. Doing so would deliver higher growth and lower inequality. Economic inequality subverts our public institutions and the policymaking process needed to support the economy— as Equitable Growth President and CEO Heather Boushey argues in her new book, Unbound: How Inequality Constricts Our Economy and What We Can Do About It. Rising economic inequality is behind a growing imbalance between what people want and the outcomes of policymakers’ decision-making about government revenue and public investment levels.

There is wide public support for public investments— and even for the taxes that will fund them, as long as they are put to good use. But the policy priorities in Washington tend to align with the preferences of the wealthy and don’t necessarily support the growth of the whole economy. This needs to change. The broader economy will reap the benefits of a well-educated labor force and steady stream of entrepreneurial ventures.

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Brad DeLong: Worthy reads on equitable growth, September 14–20, 2019

Worthy reads from Equitable Growth:

  1. Heather Boushey in Politico provides a platform to argue for distributional national accounts. Read “How To Fix Inequality: Publish Distributional, Not Just Aggregate, Growth Data,” in which Boushey writes: “To tell us how Americans—low-, middle- and high-income alike—are faring in the current economy, relative to other groups and to the average, federal agencies need to produce distributional statistics alongside the aggregate ones. That means offering not just one estimate of growth but several: growth for those with different levels of income, of different races and ethnicities, and also for variation by state or other levels of geography. Legislation has been passed that encourages the [Bureau of Economic Analysis] to add the disaggregated data, but the law provides no new funding and doesn’t go beyond encouragement. If we do not change the way we conceptualize and analyze economic progress, we are unlikely to have very much of it. Better, fairer growth measures are a vital step toward better, fairer growth.”
  2. This is very, very much worth reading: “Research on Tap: Unbound,” a Twitter round up of the event earlier this week in which “Equitable Growth celebrated the release of Heather Boushey’s book, Unbound: How Inequality Constricts Our Economy and What We Can Do About It. She was joined by Sandra Black, Atif Mian, and Angela Hanks for a conversation moderated by Binyamin Appelbaum.”
  3. This is key to why distributional national accounts are becoming increasingly essential for understanding what is going on in the U.S. economy. Read Heather Boushey’s written “Testimony before the House Budget Committee,” in which she writes: “National economic statistics are becoming less representative of the experience of most Americans. The implication for how policymakers and economists alike evaluate the economy is that average economic progress is pulling away from median economic progress. We see these same divergent trends across multiple measures of economic well-being: wages, income, and wealth.”

Worthy reads not from Equitable Growth:

 

  1. Perhaps the most interesting thing to happen in U.S. political economy over the summer was the Business Roundtable’s declaration that it no longer believed in “shareholder primacy,” the doctrine that a corporation’s managers have a twofold—and only twofold—duty: obey the law and maximize the stock market value possessed by its shareholders. All other considerations are, according to shareholder primacy, not the proper business of the corporation. Instead, they are the business of the government officials who make the laws and write the regulations to enforce them, the politicians who compete to boss around government officials, and the voters who elect them. The alternative view was always that shareholders were just one of the groups of stakeholders—albeit one of the most important groups by virtue of their status as residual claimants and their powers to choose corporate officers—whose interests were to be advanced and balanced. Here, my old teacher Mike Spence has smart things to say about the possible advantageous consequences that opening the door to the possibility of moving away from shareholder primacy might produce, in his “The End of Shareholder Primacy?” In this essay, he writes: “An even more exciting feature of the shift toward socially conscious corporate governance is that it opens the door for new, more creative business models … Alibaba [was] founded with the goal of expanding market access for small and medium-size companies. … [and] remain[s] committed … Mukesh Ambani … identified Reliance’s stakeholders as the ‘Indian economy, Indian people, our customers, employees, and shareowners’ … Digital technologies tend to come with high fixed costs, but low to negligible variable costs. Once established, a firm like Alibaba or Jio can thus provide a platform for countless other business models built around social objectives. And this effect is especially powerful in potentially large markets like China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, and the United States. The Business Roundtable’s recent declaration represents a major step forward for the multistakeholder model. The example set by industry leaders matters. And it is no accident that some of today’s most successful global companies were explicitly conceived and built on the basis of multistakeholder values.”
  2. Nixon, Reagan, Trump—the truth is that Republican presidents have never regarded the independence of the Federal Reserve as something to be respected. They did, however—before President Trump—regard “appearing” to respect the independence of the Federal Reserve as something to try to accomplish. Read Bob Bryan, “Trump’s attacks on the Fed may be intense, but they’re nothing compared to a wild new story about Ronald Reagan from former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker,” in which he writes: “Trump’s attacks on the Fed may be intense, but they’re nothing compared to a wild new story about Ronald Reagan from former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker … Volcker recounts being privately ordered by Reagan’s chief of staff [James Baker] to not raise interest rates prior to the 1984 election while Reagan was in the room. Volcker was not planning to raise interest rates at the time, but said he was ‘stunned’ by the direct violation of the Fed’s independence … According to Volcker, Reagan did not say a word, but Baker delivered a strong message: ‘The president is ordering you not to raise interest rates before the election,’ Baker told Volcker … Reagan’s apparent intimidation also echoed former President Richard Nixon’s disastrous pressure on former Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep rates low, which is seen as one of the reasons for the inflation of the 1970s.”
  3. It is a very curious thing that preindustrial societies were, by and large, about as unequal in terms of relative income as we are today. It does suggest that something like Vilfredo Pareto’s Iron Law is operating, although how it could operate is beyond me. And it does suggest that Thomas Piketty was correct in his fear that the post-World War II “trentes glorieuses” age of social democracy from 1945 to 1975 was a fragile anomaly. This, however, fits less well with Piketty’s recent argument that our current second gilded age was generated by the descent of the center-right into neofascism and the descent of the center-left into cultural liberalism as it took its eye off the important ball that is the distribution of wealth and hence of social power. It is also worth noting that preindustrial inequality was much more vicious than modern inequality: Push preindustrial inequality up by an additional fifth or more, and large numbers of people start dying from malnutrition. Read Branko Milanovic, Peter H. Lindert and Jeffrey G. Williamson, “Pre-Industrial Inequality,” in which they ask and answer: “Is inequality largely the result of the Industrial Revolution? Or, were preindustrial incomes as unequal as they are today? This article infers inequality across individuals within each of the 28 preindustrial societies, for which data were available, using what are known as social tables. It applies two new concepts: the inequality possibility frontier and the inequality extraction ratio. They compare the observed income inequality to the maximum feasible inequality that, at a given level of income, might have been ‘extracted’ by those in power. The results give new insights into the connection between inequality and economic development in the very long run.”
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Weekend reading: “The state of antitrust” edition

This is a post we publish each Friday with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth published this week and the second is relevant and interesting articles we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

Equitable Growth round-up

Criminal antitrust filings and civil nonmerger actions have fallen in the United States, while U.S. GDP growth has outpaced growth in antitrust appropriations, writes Michael Kades in a new report on the state of U.S. antitrust enforcement. Kades looks at the number and type of cases brought by enforcers at the Federal Trade Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division, the resources Congress provides for antitrust enforcement, and the merger filing-fee system that has become the primary source of funding for federal antitrust enforcement.

Just as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time this year, Somin Park warns that super-low interest rates may actually harm economic growth by reducing competition and investment. In a post detailing the findings of a new working paper, Park writes that a drop in interest rates can have one of two effects: one in which firms ramp up investment to raise productivity and expand market power to gain higher future profits (good for the economy), and one in which the productivity gap between a leading firm and its industry competitors grows so wide that investment from both sides dries up (not good for the economy). The authors of the working paper posit that whether the first or the second effect takes place may depend on how low interest rates are to begin with, before they are lowered even further.

Equitable Growth President and CEO Heather Boushey testified before the House Budget Committee this week on “solutions to rising economic inequality.” Her testimony covered long-term challenges facing the U.S. economy, such as increasing inequality and decreasing mobility, how such trends hurt economic growth and productivity, and concluded with policy solutions to tackle these systemic problems.

Economic inequality and monetary policy are indeed closely linked, writes Somin Park, even if inequality doesn’t overtly relate to the Federal Reserve’s dual mandates of maximum employment and price stability. Reviewing the recent literature on the topic, Park shows that inequality and monetary policy affect one another through various and important means—and, as such, inequality should be a consideration for the Fed in order to maximize the effectiveness of its monetary policy.

Heather Boushey details in Politico Magazine why it’s important for federal policymakers to understand how the fruits of economic growth are distributed up and down the income ladder in the United States. In her piece for Politico’s “How to Fix Politics” feature in Inequality, Boushey calls for Congress to fund the work by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to disaggregate economic growth so that policymakers can “conceptualize and analyze economic progress” as a “vital step toward better, fairer growth.”

Links from around the web

The Federal Trade Commission announced an investigation into Amazon.com Inc’s Marketplace, interviewing sellers to determine whether the company is dampening competition from smaller merchants, report Spencer Soper and Ben Brody for Bloomberg. The interviews, lasting about 90 minutes each and conducted by a team of attorneys and an economist, suggest “a serious inquiry rather than investigators merely responding to complaints and going through the motions,” say Soper and Brody. The probe is part of a larger effort by the antitrust agencies—the FTC and the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division—looking into how big tech companies such as Amazon, Facebook.com Inc, and Alphabet Inc.’s Google unit control the U.S. economy.

What is the future of work? The AFL-CIO believes it includes a four-day, 32-hour workweek, thanks to changes in technology and innovation that have increased the productivity of the labor force, writes Alexia Fernández Campbell for Vox. Researchers at the largest federation of labor unions in the nation say that shortening the workweek has two major benefits: It redistributes work hours to the millions of underemployed workers in the labor force, and it can actually make workers more productive and reduce the likelihood of burn-out. Other research supports these claims as well. So, will we see three-day weekends in the future? It may not be as far-fetched as it seems, considering that until labor law reforms in 1940, Americans worked up to 100 hours per week over six days.

Speaking of the future of work, it appears that the gig economy may not be “it” anymore, writes Neil Irwin for The New York Times. While app-based employment seemed to be everywhere in the not-too-distant past, California’s new law requiring gig economy employees to be treated as conventional workers—signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) this week—shows just how limited the gig economy may be. Plus, a growing economy has opened up more traditional opportunities for workers, meaning app-based work may become even more niche. In fact, most people these days use gig economy jobs to supplement their more traditionally earned income. “As the gig economy matures,” Irwin concludes, “it is becoming clear that every trend has its limits.”

The debate is heating up over Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) proposed wealth tax, writes John Cassidy for The New Yorker, as it is the first one released by a viable presidential candidate in decades. Cassidy covers the possible advantages as well as the controversies surrounding the proposal, which would levy a 2 percent tax on wealth greater than $50 million and tax 3 cents on every dollar of wealth exceeding $1 billion—potentially bringing in $2.75 trillion over 10 years, according to Sen. Warren’s campaign.

Friday Figure

Figure is from Equitable Growth’s “The state of U.S. federal antitrust enforcement,” by Michael Kades.

Posted in Uncategorized

Equitable Growth event highlights Boushey’s new book Unbound about how inequality obstructs, subverts, and distorts economic growth

Drawing lessons from data and the need to rebuild governing institutions to address structural problems in the U.S. economy were key themes at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth’s most recent Research on Tap event to mark the release of Unbound: How Inequality Constricts Our Economy and What We Can Do About It, by Equitable Growth’s President and CEO Heather Boushey. She was joined by economists Atif Mian from Princeton University, Sandra Black from Columbia University, and policy expert Angela Hanks for a conversation about her new book. The event was moderated by Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times.

Unbound lays out the latest cutting-edge research to show how economic inequality obstructs, subverts, and distorts the processes that boost productivity and output and offers solutions to promote economic growth that is strong, stable, and broadly shared. In a conversation with Appelbaum, Boushey explained that new empirical techniques and data allow economists to show that markets don’t work for the benefit of people across the income and wealth distribution without the governing institutions that serve to constrain economic inequality.

Mian and Black, drawing from their experience in academia, discussed what the research in economics tells us about how inequality affects the economy. Mian explained that empirical evidence challenges standard economic theory and the notion that there is a clear tension between economic equity and economic growth. One premise from standard theory that is borne out by the data is that as inequality rises, there are more savings available for investment, as richer individuals tend to save more. A prediction that follows is that as aggregate saving increases, investment should also go up. Investment in the United States, however, has declined over time.

Mian’s answer to this puzzle—examined in his book House of Debt with Amir Sufi at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business—is the financialization of the economy in the run-up to the 2007 financial crisis. With a lot of money looking for a place to go, credit became more easily available and was used to fund consumption among lower-wealth households. Mian and Sufi’s work on credit-driven economic growth and how it both increases economic instability and leads to lost economic opportunity shows one of the key ways that inequality distorts the macroeconomy, as explored in Unbound.

Columbia’s Black discussed research showing that there is remarkable intergenerational persistence in income and wealth in the United States, despite the idea of the nation being the land of opportunity. In her research looking at the outcome of adoptees that disentangles genetic and environmental factors, Black finds that wealth transmission occurs not primarily because children from wealthier families are inherently more talented, but rather that wealth begets wealth and all its advantages. Her research is important because economic inequality obstructs the supply of talent and ideas, as wealthy families monopolize the best educational, social, and economic opportunities. Those with fewer resources are left behind and locked out.

Hanks, deputy executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, argued that in the policy sphere, looking at data is important and also essential to help translate the problems identified in economics into policy. Using data to accurately reflect people’s challenges is critical because failing to communicate the magnitude of problems in the U.S. economy leads to a failure to develop commensurate solutions to address them.

Black, a member of former President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, also discussed her experience of the challenges of bringing academic ideas into policy. When policymakers and advisors limit themselves to what has been fully demonstrated by the evidence, policy tends to be incremental because much of the research itself is incremental. Policies on issues such as wage boards or improvements to unions can get overlooked, since there is limited research and evidence.

The panelists each spoke about the political challenges of addressing economic inequality. Mian posited that the challenge is not having to establish consensus in academia that economic inequality matters, but rather is a political one. He argued that the message about economic inequality has not been powerful enough to reach voters and prevent them from voting against their own interests.

Why is there a communications failure? To this question posed by Mian, Black pointed to a key idea explored in Unbound—inequality subverts democracy and the policymaking process because the economic elite have political power and control the political narrative. Boushey added that much of the public discourse focuses on misguided arguments about markets versus government, when, in fact, the two must coexist—with rules and institutions that support a well-functioning market.

One policy idea emblematic of this insight at the top of Mian’s wish list is the importance of providing equitable endowments to ensure that all families have the necessary resources to thrive, as part of a structural shift needed in the U.S. economy. The top priority for Hanks and Black is addressing outsized power at the top of the income and wealth distributions. Boushey noted that to make the U.S. economy more equitable and stronger, policies to increase opportunity for all and policies to redistribute income and wealth—via higher taxes—are not in contention with one another and should, in fact, go together. What is important, she said, is to reshape the way we think about the policy agenda and build an economy that delivers strong and broad-based gains.

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Testimony by Heather Boushey before the House Budget Committee


Heather Boushey
Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Testimony before the House Budget Committee,
Hearing on “Solutions to Rising Economic Inequality”

September 19, 2019


Thank you, Chairman Yarmuth and Ranking Member Womack, for inviting me to speak today. It’s an honor to be here.

My name is Heather Boushey and I am President and CEO of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. We seek to advance evidence-backed ideas and policies that promote strong, stable, and broad-based economic growth.

The United States is experiencing the longest economic expansion in our history. The economy continues to add jobs month after month and the unemployment rate remains historically low. But unlike in past expansions, the strong headline jobs numbers have not translated into strong wage gains for workers. Instead, the benefits of the economic recovery are disproportionately accumulating to the already wealthy. The well-being of working- and middle-class families has become detached from economic growth as those at the top of the income and wealth ladders capture more and more of those gains. Over the past four decades, earnings for low- and middle-income Americans have grown slowly—or not at all—while incomes and wealth have surged at the top.

The latest economic research from across the disciplines shows the many ways that high economic inequality—in incomes, wealth, and across firms—serves to obstruct, subvert, and distort the processes that lead to widespread improved economic well-being. In short, the evidence increasingly points to the conclusion that today’s high concentrations of economic resources are constricting economic growth. Yet, our nation has spent decades systemically undermining the capacity of institutions that were set up to contain and constrain economic inequality. This has made it impossible for the market to work as advertised. The current situation cannot provide a path forward for strong, stable, and broadly-shared income gains across the income distribution.

Policymakers can preserve the best of our economic and political traditions, and improve on them, by pursing policies that can both reduce economic inequality and boost growth. The most critical steps are those that limit inequality’s ability to constrict our economy and tackle the ways that the concentration of economic resources translate into political and social power. Core to this agenda is the need to rebalance the power between those who have access to resources and those who do not. I encourage you to think about the structural effects by focusing specifically on:

  • Building inclusive, broad-based, and diverse institutions representing the voices of working- and middle-class families
  • Policies that directly boost incomes at the bottom
  • Market structure and competition
  • Promoting fairness in who pays taxes
  • What policymakers both do with the revenue they have and what they must do to cope with too-little revenue.

As a first step, I encourage you to redefine the goal—to focus not on the stock market, headline jobs numbers or just Gross Domestic Product, but on ensuring that economic growth reaches Americans across the income spectrum.

In my testimony, I will first review the longer-term economic challenges facing the U.S. economy, including rising inequality and falling mobility. I will then turn to the ways in which economic inequality hurts growth and productivity and offer a series of solutions to combat the problem of systemic and growing inequality.

The rise in income and wealth inequality

Families across our nation aren’t feeling the benefits of growth in their daily lives and many national economic statistics are becoming less representative of the experience of most Americans. The implication for how policymakers and economists alike evaluate the economy is that average economic progress is pulling away from median economic progress. We see these same divergent trends across multiple measures of economic wellbeing: wages, income, and wealth.

Prior to the 1980s, economic growth was equitably shared between most Americans. But we are now in a new economy, which is both growing slower than in the past and where growth mostly accrues to those at the top of the economic ladder. Incomes for the working-class and the middle-class families have grown slowly for decades while incomes at the very top have exploded.

Since 1980, GDP growth (an incomplete measure, as I discuss below) has been slower overall—growing at an annual pace of 1.3 percent compared to 1.7 percent in the three decades before. From 1980 to 2016, those in the top one percent saw their incomes after taxes and transfers rise by more than 180 percent, and those in the top 0.001 percent saw their incomes grow by more than 600 percent. Meanwhile, those in the bottom half saw only a 25 percent rise, find economists Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman. To be very clear, this data show that only those at the very tippy top have had truly sizeable gains during this period.1 (See Figure 1, on page 3.)

Other research confirms the large growth in inequality since 1980. Last week, the U.S. Census Bureau released estimates showing that in 2018 the top 5 percent of income earners took home almost as much of our national income as the bottom 60 percent (23.1 percent compared to 25.5 percent). They also show that U.S. inequality, as measured by the Gini Coefficient, remains near record highs, having grown steadily since 1980.2

Prior to this period, there was little need to separate out or “disaggregate” national growth because the headline GDP growth statistic was broadly representative of most Americans. Unfortunately, that is no longer the case.

GDP growth has been treated for decades by pundits and policymakers alike as synonymous with prosperity. President John. F. Kennedy famously alluded to it when he said that “a rising tide lifts all boats.” In the decades since, economists and commentators have used the metaphor of “growing the pie” to indicate that we should first and foremost be concerned with growing the economy rather than concerning ourselves with who gets a slice. But as Figure 1 demonstrates, overall growth of the economic pie is no longer correlated with prosperity for many Americans. Representative Carolyn Maloney has a proposal to make GDP growth representative of all Americans again, which I discuss later in my testimony.

The unequal distribution of income exhibits inequalities by gender and race as well. Those that occupy the highest rungs on the income ladder are much more likely to be male and white, which means that women and people of color are less likely to have access to the economic and political power that higher incomes confer. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that 32 percent of white households earn $100,000 or more—about double the 16.7 percent for black households. Conversely, more than one in 8.7 black households earns less than $15,000, compared to fewer than one in 19 white households.3

Figure 1

Inequality of Wealth

Income is the flow of money while wealth is the stock of accumulating assets—money, but also property, stocks, bonds, and other kinds of capital. The distribution of wealth across U.S. households is even more severely unequal than income.4 Research by Saez and Zucman documents that in the 1920s, the share of wealth owned by the top 1 percent of households by wealth was 51 percent. As with the share of income owned by the top 1 percent, this fell during the middle of the 20th century by more than half, hitting a low of 23 percent in 1978. Since then, however, wealth gains at the top have grown even faster than income—those in the top 1 percent now control 42 percent of all wealth and the top 0.1 percent control more than 22 percent of all wealth in the U.S. economy, three times as much as a generation ago. This amounts to 160,000 families owning a collective $11.7 trillion. In 2018, this group’s share of wealth was equal to that of the bottom 90 percent of Americans.5 (See Figure 2.)

Figure 2

The Federal Reserve Board’s new Distributional Financial Accounts also show that wealth is strongly concentrated, with 10 percent of the population holding 70 percent of all wealth in the United States in 2018. The bottom 50 percent of wealth owners experienced no growth in net wealth since 1989. Meanwhile, the top 1 percent saw their wealth grow by almost 300 percent since 1989. Although cumulative growth of wealth was relatively similar among all wealth groups through the 1990s, the top 1 percent and bottom 50 percent diverged around 2000. (See Figure 3.)

Figure 3

Economic inequality and the fall in economic mobility

Moving up the economic ladder and earning more than the previous generation is at the heart of “the American Dream,” still an ideal that many Americans cherish. But groundbreaking research now shows that inequality is hindering upward absolute mobility, obstructing people from moving up as the rungs of the ladder grow further apart.

Harvard University economist Raj Chetty and his co-authors looked across generations and found that when people born in 1940 were in their prime work-age years, nearly all—92 percent—had an income that was higher than their parents had at the same age. But when those born in 1980—the Reagan-era children—hit their 30s, only half had an income higher than their parents had at the same age. Middle-income Americans have experienced the largest decline in economic mobility.6 Looking across the income spectrum, the researchers found that 70 percent of the decline can be explained by the rise in inequality. We could only close 30 percent of this “mobility gap” by raising growth alone. (See Figure 4.)

Figure 4

Inequality limits opportunity for those not already at the top. Everyone needs some measure of capital to start up a business, to give a child a college education, or to take care of sudden medical emergencies. Yet increasingly only the very wealthy have the means to do so without risking their future livelihoods by going into serious debt. In this way we can see that inequities in income and wealth can replicate themselves across generations. Solving falling economic mobility will require tackling economic inequality and all the ways it harms our economy.

Economic inequality is bad for the economy

Inequality constricts growth by:

  • Obstructing the supply of people and ideas into our economy and limiting opportunity for those not already at the top, which slows productivity growth over time
  • Subverting the institutions that manage the market, making our political system ineffective and our labor markets dysfunctional
  • Distorting demand through its effects on consumption and investment, which both drags down and destabilizes short- and long-term growth in economic output

Inequality obstructs the supply of talent, ideas, and capital

The economic circumstances that children are born into affect children’s development in everything from their health to their ability to focus at school to their educational opportunities, and these, in turn, affect their economic outcomes as adults. Research by economists shows the links between factors such as children’s varying birth weights and their different levels of school performance, job-holding, and earnings as adults relative to others with similar skill sets.

Even when children have access to skills, inequality obstructs their contributing to the economy to the best of their abilities, and these obstructions hinder productivity and growth. Research led by Harvard’s Chetty measured what is more important to earning a patent later in life: scoring high on childhood aptitude tests or parental income. Disturbingly, the richer the family, the more likely the child will be to earn a patent—far outweighing demonstrated intelligence. If a child who shows aptitude early on cannot climb the income and wealth ladder, then there’s something broken in the way our economy works. Inequality has blocked the process and, as result, drags down national productivity by making our workforce less capable than it could be and our economy less innovative.

Inequality subverts the institutions that manage the market

Growing inequality is subverting the public institutions and the policymaking process we need to support our economy. It discourages a focus on the public interest and promotes the efforts of firms to accrue larger profits than truly competitive markets would allow.

Today, firms are able to manipulate the functioning of the marketplace because economic inequality gives their owners the financial wherewithal to wield political influence. By exerting pressure on political processes, they can minimize the taxes on firms, owners of capital, and top-salaried workers. And they can rewrite laws and regulations in their favor. Research shows that lower taxes on those at the top of the income ladder do not lead to the kinds of beneficial outcomes some economists and policymakers suggest. The evidence is that when the rich pay less in taxes it encourages them to act in unproductive ways. (See Figure 5.)

Figure 5

When a firm has too much power in its product or services market, it has monopoly power, which means it can raise prices with impunity and stymie competition. Indeed, our economy is increasingly dominated by a few firms in many industries. In healthcare markets, the biggest healthcare companies are increasing their stronghold by merging and then charging higher prices, which in turn leads to higher profits for managers and shareholders alongside less affordable—and sometimes lower quality—healthcare for everyone else. It also means lower wages for those working increasingly in what economists call “monopsony labor markets,” where there’s only one or a handful of employers in a given market, giving these firms outsized wage-setting power. What’s happening in health care is emblematic of changes across our economy.

By subverting our economy in various ways, inequality undermines confidence that institutions of governance can deliver for the majority. But for the economy to function, the public sector needs to function, and function well. In the 19th and 20th centuries, the U.S. government implemented policies that launched many families with a solid financial foundation, including the Homestead Act, the estate tax, universal primary and secondary schools and land grant colleges across the nation, and the GI Bill. These policies weren’t perfect and were discriminatory in multiple ways, but they showed that the federal government could embark on big agendas to reduce inequality. Today, however, inequality in wealth and power is thwarting the government from taking on collective endeavors that provide the foundation for broad-based economic growth while promoting the interests of monopolists and oligopolists over others.

Inequality distorts both consumption and investment

Inequality distorts everyday decision-making by consumers and businesses. These outcomes are evident at the macroeconomic level. People’s spending drives business investment as consumers account for nearly 70 cents of every dollar spent in the United States. But for the past several decades, U.S. families in the bottom half of the income distribution have seen no income gains, and the gains for those families not among the top 10 percent of income earners have been meager. This means that if firms were to invest more, they may not be able to sell additional goods and services because consumers might not be in positions to buy them.

Many businesses, eyeing demand, have understandably not invested much over this period. U.S. firms are sitting on record-high piles of cash, which have been steadily accumulating since the 1980s.7 Others have found customers willing to purchase their wares, but only because of the financially unstable expansion of household debt—as seen especially in the run-up to the Great Recession in the middle of the last decade, and as is occurring again today.8 Growing economic inequality thus destabilizes spending because everyday consumers either don’t have enough money to spend or are borrowing beyond their means to buy what they need.

Inequality is even driving changes in what firms are producing, with a number of economic implications for innovation and even inflation. Xavier Jaravel at the London School of Economics finds that businesses are investing in new products targeted at high-end consumers while developing fewer products for those in the lower end of the market. For those at the low end, there’s less competition for their business, which means lower productivity, lower innovation, and higher prices and inflation. This shows up in the data: Jaravel found that between 2004 and 2013, families with incomes greater than $100,000 per year saw yearly prices rise by 0.65 percent less than for families earning below $30,000 in the respective bundles of goods that those families bought.

With consumption dragged down by flagging middle-class incomes, too much money in the hands of those at the top, and investors sitting on the sidelines, conditions are ripe for an increase in the supply of credit. The deregulation of the financial sector over the past 40 years has made it easier to lend to U.S. households—in no small part due to the influence of the financial services industry. Empirical research and the U.S. experience over the past several decades show the consequences of these distortions and how credit-driven economic growth both increases economic instability and leads to lost economic opportunity.

Solutions for economic inequality

Policymakers can preserve the best of our economic and political traditions, and improve on them, by pursing policies that can both reduce economic inequality and boost growth. The most critical steps are those that limit inequality’s ability to constrict our economy and tackle the ways that the concentration of economic resources translate into political and social power. The solutions start with addressing the subversions caused by inequality, which then creates the opportunity to remove obstructions and limit distortions in the broader economy. The market cannot function to benefit most Americans if it’s being subverted by the economic power of a small group at the top of the economic ladder.

Measure what matters

To properly design policy, lawmakers need the right measurement tools, otherwise they might be tempted to pass laws that raise average outcomes without actually helping families across the income spectrum. Yet many of the statistics we rely on to inform us about the state of our economy are measures of the mean and, in an era of rising inequality, are becoming less informative about the experience of the majority of people you represent.

To address this, Congress should require the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to release growth data that is broken down by income group each quarter alongside Gross Domestic Product. By focusing less on an unrepresentative average for the U.S. economy and instead on how income gains are distributed, policymakers can ensure that no one is left behind, regardless of their zip code or demographics.

H.R 707, The Measuring Real Income Growth Act, introduced by Representative Carolyn Maloney, would disaggregate quarterly or annual GDP growth numbers, telling us how much of that growth accrued to low-, middle-, and high-income Americans. This would provide policymakers with a new tool to track the progress of the economy, evaluate how past policy is changing our economic fortunes, and guide future economic decision-making.

Increase bargaining power for workers

Policymakers must ensure there’s a bulwark against concentrated economic power by improving workers’ ability to bargain with employers over pay and working conditions. Civic institutions, especially unions, that once served as voices for everyday wage-earning workers have suffered a long decline. Unions were traditionally the most vocal and ardent advocates for the middle class, but now only 1 out of every 15 private-sector workers belongs to a union. In the early 1950s, a third of private-sector workers did.

New ideas for how to revitalize the U.S. labor movement and strengthen worker bargaining power abound. These include:

  • Making it easier for workers to organize a union, including through reforms to the collective-bargaining process and stiffer enforcement and penalties for employers who violate the law
  • Extending union contracts to non-union workers, a process that is widely used in similar countries and called sectoral bargaining
  • Structurally incorporating unions into the policymaking process
  • Making union membership the default status for many workers
  • Allowing unions to manage public benefits, such as unemployment insurance
  • Privileging firms that cooperate well with unions in government contracting and other arenas
  • Launching a global agreement modeled on the Paris Climate Accord that explicitly targets higher unionization rates

Any of these policy proposals could improve U.S. workers’ ability to bargain with employers over pay and working conditions.9

It’s no accident that, back when unions were strong, the fruits of U.S. economic growth were more broadly distributed to unionized and non-unionized workers alike. Solutions will require not only reinvigorating civic institutions—be they in formal unions or other kinds of worker solidarity organizations—but also addressing how the legal landscape has become increasingly hostile to non-corporate civic engagement. Business associations and their allies in politics pushed through so called “right-to-work” laws that restrict collective bargaining, and have filed serial successful lawsuits designed to cripple unions’ ability to fund their activities. Restoring balance will require rethinking these policies.10

Increase the minimum wage

Increasing the minimum wage is vital to raising living standards at the bottom of the income spectrum and for the most disadvantaged workers. Research indicates that higher minimum wages helps workers in a multitude of ways, by lowering the poverty rate, increasing earnings for low-wage workers, and decreasing public expenditures on welfare programs.11

The minimum wage also plays an important role in decreasing earnings disparities for disadvantaged groups. The expansion of the federal minimum wage to cover additional industries in the 1966 Federal Labor Standards Act explained 20 percent of the reduction in the black-white wage gap during the Civil Rights era. And the poverty rate for black and Hispanic families would be around 20 percent lower had the minimum wage remained at its 1968 inflation-adjusted level and not been allowed to languish and atrophy for years.12

Previous generations of economists were concerned that minimum wage increases could harm employment, but there is ambiguous or no evidence for this conjecture. New, high-quality research concludes that raising the minimum wage increases incomes at the bottom without costing jobs—whether that research examined administrative data sources that follow workers over several years,13 conducted meta-analysis of 138 different minimum wage increases,14 or examined the U.S. cities that have pushed their minimum wages higher than any others.15

Address monopoly power

The U.S. economy is increasingly dominated by a fewer firms, meaning higher profits for shareholders but higher prices and lower wages for typical U.S. families—especially as workers face monopsony labor markets in which firms have the power to set low wages. There must be rules that ensure that those with the most economic power cannot subvert the market to benefit themselves at the expense of workers and consumers. Congress needs to clarify that antitrust laws protect competition—in all of its forms, not simply where it affects consumer prices. In cases of uncertainty, the laws should favor competition over concentration.

Attending to the issue of monopsony would be a new and crucial step for antitrust regulators. As a way to start, policymakers should consider how mergers affect labor markets. A merger between two companies that are ostensibly in different markets (and thus would be swiftly approved) might in fact be anticompetitive because they compete for the same employees.16

On top of everything else, in recent decades federal antitrust enforcers have not had the resources they need to do their job of preventing anticompetitive consolidation. Since 2010, the number of requests for merger reviews filed at the two federal antitrust agencies has increased by more than 50 percent, but appropriations to the agencies that enforce the antitrust laws have fallen precipitously in real terms. (See Figure 6.)

Figure 6

Not surprisingly, despite the wave in mergers, there has been no increase in merger enforcement. Research shows that merger enforcement has narrowed its focus to mergers at the highest levels of concentration and permitted more consolidation. Between 2008 and 2011, there were exactly zero enforcement actions taken for mergers that would result in more than four significant competitors in the industry. Congress should ensure that enforcers have the resources they need to do their jobs.17

Tax wealth

It is clear what kinds of policies will worsen all the trends discussed here. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was sharply regressive, with high-income families enjoying larger tax windfalls in both the short- and long-term than low- and middle-income families.

Proponents claimed the new tax law would boost wages by $4,000 per year.18 But there is no evidence to suggest such an increase is coming. Despite the already strong economy, inflation-adjusted wage growth has been moderate at best in the nearly two years since the law was passed. Proponents claimed that the law would lead to a boom in business investment in things such as factories and technology, but the modest increase in investment in 2018 relative to trend was primarily the result of fluctuations in oil prices.19 Investment has already declined from that modest level in 2019. Instead, it is clear that corporations have used their tax windfall to give out a record $1 trillion-plus in stock buybacks in 2018.20

Policymakers have room to raise taxes at the top of the income ladder and, indeed, empirical analysis indicates that this will likely have economic benefits above and beyond raising revenue. The top marginal income tax rate is now less than half what it was in the mid-20th century, which has allowed individuals at the top to accumulate wealth and power far beyond what previous generations of wealthy Americans could amass. Nobel Prize winning economist Peter Diamond and Saez found that the United States could have approximately doubled the tax burden on the top 1 percent of income earners in 2007, and that “would still leave the after-tax income share of the top percentile more than twice as high as in 1970.”21

Given that the top one percent controls more than 40 percent of U.S. wealth, and these fortunes have been amassed in part by utilizing tax shelters and preferential rates only available to the truly well-off, one avenue to focus on is how to tax wealth more and better. (See Table 1.)

First, capital gains taxes are too easy to avoid. Under current law, capital gains and losses are taxed only when the gain or loss is realized, generally when the underlying asset is sold. Some assets are passed on to heirs at death and are never taxed. Instead, lawmakers could implement a system of mark-to-market taxation where investors would pay tax on the increase in the value of their investments each year. Switching to a system such as this would equalize the tax treatment of income from labor and income from capital, making the tax system more progressive, efficient, and fair. It could even include a high exemption so that it only applies to the truly well-off.

Second, policymakers could make it harder for corporations to avoid taxation by shifting income across international borders by moving to either a destination-based tax system or imposing a global minimum tax (higher than the one imposed in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017).

Third, federal lawmakers could impose a new net worth tax on very wealthy individuals, which could function similar to net worth taxes in other countries and be a more comprehensive version of the property taxes levied on the state and local level. Because wealth is so unequally distributed, a tax with a very high exemption could still raise hundreds of billions of dollars for needed investments.22

Table 1

Enable all children to thrive at an early age

Investments in people—through education, training, and care—are as important to the economy as physical capital, something that economists have recognized since the 1960s. Today, we need a national commitment not only to ensure equal access to primary and secondary school but also to end unequal access to early childhood education and care. Early childhood education must be paired with a sensible policy on childcare. The primary source of federal funding for childcare subsidies for low-income working families is the Child Care Development Fund, but this reaches only about one in six eligible children. Ideas for improving access to childcare include expanding subsidies to ensure that no family pays more than a reasonable share of its income—perhaps seven percent. Reforms should also be paired with measures to improve the wages of childcare workers, and in doing so boost the quality of that care.23

Congress can address some of the well-documented inequities in child health, mortality, and basic resources by making sure that programs such as SNAP, Medicaid, WIC are protected from cuts and work requirements. Work requirements have been shown by research to lower the effectiveness of these programs by, among other things, burying participants in red tape and confusing eligibility requirements.

Allow workers to manage their lives

Over the course of their careers, most workers will experience a life event—whether it is a serious personal medical issue, the birth of a child, or the need to care for a loved one who is ill—that they will need to address outside of work. But currently, the Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993 falls far too short, providing unpaid leave to only 60 percent of workers. Paid leave provides the right to time off with pay so that workers can continue to cover the electricity bill and put food on the table while they focus their attention on addressing their needs or the needs of their family members. Six states have put in place statewide paid-family-leave programs (and soon the District of Columbia), which ensure that any parent, not just one at a high-income level, can spend time with a new baby or a seriously ill child and have income support.24 These existing models are replicable on the federal level.25

Further, most low-income parents do not have access to the work-life scheduling policies and support they need to address conflicts between work and caring for young children. Modern retail and warehousing scheduling practices are not the inevitable consequence of technological change or market necessities. Rather, employers are using new scheduling technology as a tool when they engage in a well-documented phenomenon in the labor market called “risk shifting.” As worker bargaining power has weakened and American ideas about individual responsibility have changed since the 1970s, employers have increasingly shifted economic risk from business owners and shareholders to workers. This “risk” is often thought of as changes to worker compensation and job security, but changes in scheduling practices also are a key dimension of risk shifting.

Today, employees’ schedules are highly responsive to employers’ perceptions of the ebbs and flows of consumer demand. As a result, their schedules are irregular and unpredictable. When employers treat workers as widgets to be used or discarded erratically, what are the consequences for worker well-being? Economists Danny Schneider at the University of Cailfornia, Berkeley and Kristen Harknett at UC-San Francisco show that just-in-time schedules are associated with psychological distress and poor sleep, while other research points to unpredictable scheduling harming workers’ children’s outcomes.26 27

Sustainable and productive investment

Policymakers should make greater investments in large-scale projects, such as upgrading the nation’s failing transportation infrastructure, addressing climate change, and investing in people and families. These projects encompass traditional investments in water and transportation as well as developing the technology to limit the emission of greenhouse gases and to address the consequences of climate change. There’s a comprehensive agenda to be enacted to make investments in the development and deployment of green energy, in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on our food supplies, and to assist communities upended by the rising prevalence of climate change-induced natural disasters.28

Without additional revenue, government cannot make these critical investments and the public knows that public investments are important and lacking. A majority of Americans say that poorly maintained schools are a threat to our children, and a majority think that all Americans are endangered by the poor quality of our drinking water infrastructure.29 A Harvard-Harris Poll in 2017 found, more emphatically, that 84 percent of Americans want to invest more in infrastructure, and 76 percent agree that government should be at least partially responsible for that investment.30 Governments, within reason, need to spend and regulate to encourage growth, not simply cut and run. The long-term decline in revenue has starved resources that can be directed to critical public investments.

Conclusion

When we start from a focus on who gains from rising economic prosperity, we see that rising economic concentration in income, wealth, and firms constricts growth and productivity by obstructing access to those not already at the top, subverting the institutions that manage the market, and destabilizing the macroeconomy through distorting both consumption and investment. This Committee has a vital role in resetting our national policies and making sure that our economy is not longer bound by inequality. Thank you for again allowing me to testify on this topic today.

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Economic inequality matters for Federal Reserve monetary policymaking

New York, USA – June 18, 2016: A young woman checks her phone in front of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

After the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at the end of July, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that inequality concerns influenced the decision when he underscored the importance of sustaining the economic expansion to reach “those left behind.” Powell’s concern is in line with the evidence showing that monetary policy affects income and wealth inequality, and rising inequality affects the effectiveness of monetary policies. Researchers and central bankers alike are increasingly calling for inequality concerns to play a central role in shaping Fed policy.

Economists have studied how monetary policy affects the distribution of income and wealth. A paper by University of Texas at Austin economist Olivier Coibion and his co-authors finds that expansionary monetary policies (lowering the benchmark interest rate) from the Fed reduce income and consumption inequality across households, while contractionary monetary policy shocks (by raising that benchmark rate) increase income and consumption inequality. The contrasting effects are primarily due to the differences in the composition of incomes and household balance sheets across the U.S. income distribution.

Other recent research from three economists at the International Monetary Fund that looks at 32 economies over recent decades supports these findings. In Confronting Inequality: How Societies Can Choose Inclusive Growth, Jonathan D. Ostry, Prakash Loungani, and Andrew Berg find that an unanticipated 100 basis-point decline in the interest rate lowers the Gini measure of inequality by 1.25 percent in the short term and by 2.25 in the medium term. The labor share of income rises, while the shares of income going to the top 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent all fall. They conclude that there is clear-cut evidence that unanticipated, or exogenous, monetary policy easing lowers income inequality.

Economic inequality also affects the transmission of monetary policy to the U.S. economy in several ways. Wealthier households tend to have a lower marginal propensity to consume, meaning that low-income households will spend more of an extra dollar. Research by Stanford University economist Adrien Auclert shows that differences in marginal propensities to consume have an important impact on how interest rates affect aggregate demand. The stimulative effect of monetary policy is amplified when it shifts income toward individuals who are more likely to spend it—lower-income individuals and holders of debt.

Another way that inequality affects the effectiveness of monetary policy is through households’ access to financial markets and indebtedness. Because low-income households tend to have limited access to banks or financial markets, a change in the distribution of income affects who will be most affected by and more responsive to changes in interest rates. A household’s income and indebtedness profile also influence how it responds to a change in monetary policy. Research shows that the transmission of monetary policy is more effective for middle-class households that are more indebted and have adjustable interest rates on their debts.

Traditionally, economic inequality hasn’t been a primary concern to central bankers when it comes to monetary policy decisions. Liviu Voinea of the National Bank of Romania and Pierre Monnin of the Council on Economic Policies note that the decades-old dogma that central banks need not be concerned with income and wealth inequality was put into question following the global financial crisis, when many central banks used unconventional monetary policies to contain the economic fallout. Some economists argued that unconventional policies, such as quantitative easing (when central banks buy government bonds or other financial assets), would worsen wealth inequality because they boost asset prices more than the standard change in interest rates and because asset distribution is highly skewed toward wealthier households. In an ongoing debate, others argue that quantitative easing had positive distributional effects.

The jury’s still out on the effect of unconventional policies on economic inequality, but it’s clear that the distributional consequences of monetary policy are important to consider. Even if some Fed policymakers see inequality as irrelevant to their dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, they still should pay attention to income and wealth inequality to maximize the effectiveness of monetary policy.

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Low interest rates can dampen competition and hurt productivity growth

U.S. interest rates hovered near zero for 7 years after the Federal Reserve slashed rates in 2008 during the Great Recession, with a gradual series of rate hikes then carrying the federal funds rate to 2.5 percent. At the end of July, the central bank made its first rate cut in more than a decade to sustain the economic expansion amid signs of a slowing global economy and rising trade frictions. Yet—against the backdrop of a wide global decline in long-term interest rates since the 1980s—new research suggests that very low interest rates could, in fact, hurt economic growth by reducing competition and investment.

A working paper from economists Ernest Liu and Atif Mian at Princeton University and Amir Sufi at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business connects the dots between interest rates, investment, and market competition to offer an explanation for the decline in productivity growth, which has characterized the U.S. economy since the early 2000s. The three co-authors’ model suggests that very low interest rates can reduce industry competition, investment, and overall productivity growth in the economy.

They develop a model in which a decline in interest rates has two main effects. First, all firms ramp up investment to raise productivity and gain market power in order to reap higher future profits. They term this the “traditional effect.” Second, the productivity gap between a leading firm and its industry competitors grows because the leader’s incentive to invest is stronger. The widening gap discourages the lagging rivals from investing, meaning that the industry becomes increasingly monopolistic. Liu, Mian, and Sufi call this the “strategic effect.”

When interest rates are very low and fall toward zero, the strategic effect is stronger than the traditional effect because industries are more monopolistic. The leading firm’s competitors stop investing as they fall too far behind and the prospect of catching up to the leader becomes weaker. The leader also stops investing once the threat of being overtaken by competitors becomes too small. And when this occurs across industries, the overall productivity growth of the economy falls.

To be sure, when interest rates are high, a decline in interest rates boosts economic growth initially—the traditional effect is stronger than the strategic effect. But rate cuts when interest rates are “sufficiently low,” the co-authors say, dampen growth. So, what do they consider a sufficiently low interest rate—one below which the anti-competitive effect dominates? This threshold rate is not directly observable. But Liu, Mian, and Sufi suggest that it is possible to identify a lower bound by looking at interest rates below which a fall in the rate has a stronger impact on the value of the leading company than on its competitors.

A number of other studies also show that a fall in long-term interest rates is associated with higher industry concentration, higher markups, and higher corporate profits alongside a decline in business dynamism. Recent research from New York University economists Germán Gutiérrez and Thomas Philippon finds that U.S. business investment since the early 2000s has remained disproportionately low compared to profitability measures, arguing that decreasing competition could explain about one-half of the investment gap. Investment is critical to economic growth.

There is an ongoing, fundamental debate in economics about what kind of market conditions promote investment-driven innovation. On one side are the ideas of the American Nobel laureate Kenneth Arrow, who argued that a monopolist has less incentive to invest and generate disruptive innovation. On the other side are the ideas of the famous Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter, who argued that larger firms had more incentive and ability to innovate.

Liu, Mian, and Sufi’s model suggests that firms initially have more incentive to invest due to the higher future payoff in profits, as argued by Schumpeter. Yet once the productivity gap between them and their smaller competitors is wide and once the marginal gain of strengthening their market position is lower than the investment cost, they become “lazy” and invest less, as Arrow’s ideas would suggest.

Economic inequality distorts investment and economic growth in multiple ways. Using Mian and Sufi’s previous work on the Great Recession, Equitable Growth President and CEO Heather Boushey argues in her forthcoming book, Unbound: How Inequality Constricts Our Economy and What We Can Do About It, that rising economic inequality, combined with financial deregulation of the early 2000s, led to a rise in the supply of credit—leading to unstable growth and eventually to a deep economic crisis. This new study by Liu, Mian, and Sufi introduces interest rates into the equation and improves our understanding of how market concentration affects the U.S. economy and stymies competition.

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