Equitable Growth’s Jobs Day Graphs: December 2018 Report Edition

Earlier this morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data on the U.S. labor market during the month of December. Below are five graphs compiled by Equitable Growth staff highlighting important trends in the data.

1.

The employment rate for prime-age workers stayed the same in December, holding on to gains made over the past year in a tightening labor market.

2.

Year-over-year wage growth increased to 3.2% as it inches closer to the expected nominal target of 3.5-4.0% in a tight labor market.

3.

Employment growth continues to be strongest in health care and other service sectors, but also continued to make modest gains in manufacturing and construction in December.

4.

While more workers voluntarily left their jobs into new unemployment in December, unemployment for more than 15 weeks also edged downward.

5.

As overall unemployment increased due to more workers entering the labor force in a healthy economy, the unemployment rate for African Americans and Hispanic or Latina workers continues to be significantly higher than that of White workers.

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Brad DeLong: Worthy reads on equitable growth, December 19, 2018–January 3, 2019

Worthy reads from Equitable Growth:

  1. If you have not already read all of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth’s top 12 of 2018, go read them at “Equitable Growth’s Top 12 of 2018.”
  2. The Joint Tax Committee should do what Greg Leiserson and Adam Looney recommend in “A framework for economic analysis of tax regulations” beginning today. They write: “The economic analysis conducted in these cases should focus on the revenues raised and the economic burden imposed on the public as a result of the agencies’ exercise of discretion or the new application of existing authority. The revenues raised and the burden imposed reflect the fundamental tradeoff in taxation, and thus determine a regulation’s costs and benefits. However, the analysis should not attempt to quantify the net benefit or net cost of a regulation, as doing so would require the agencies to make controversial assumptions about the social value of revenues and the appropriate distribution of the tax burden. Treasury’s Office of Tax Analysis is well-equipped to provide estimates of revenues and burden, as they can be built from analyses the Office already produces: revenue estimates, distributional analyses, and compliance cost estimates.”
  3. We here at Equitable Growth are certainly doing a good job of picking our grantees. Read Corey Husak’s tweet “So excited and honored,” in which he notes that five of the eight best young economists named by The Economist are Equitable Growth grantees.
  4. If you want to join some future such list of eight, take a look at our current Equitable Growth “Request for Proposals.”

Worthy reads not from Equitable Growth:

  1. Robert Bork and his followers hold to the poisonous belief that the test for anticompetitive behavior is whether it could be declared anticompetitive “in theory” beyond a reasonable doubt. And here we see people having to argue against it again in a new context. Read Jonathan B. Baker and Fiona Scott Morton, “Antitrust Enforcement Against Platform MFNs,” in which they write: “Antitrust enforcement against anticompetitive … pricing parity provisions … can help protect competition in online markets … These contractual provisions may be employed by a variety of online platforms offering, for example, hotel and transportation bookings, consumer goods, digital goods, or handmade craft products. They have been the subject of antitrust enforcement in Europe but have drawn only limited antitrust scrutiny in the United States. Our feature explains why MFNs employed by online platforms can harm competition by keeping prices high and discouraging the entry of new platform rivals, through both exclusionary and collusive mechanisms, notwithstanding the possibility that some MFNs may facilitate investment by limiting customer freeriding.”
  2. Perhaps Congress’ Pay-as-You-Go principle made some sense in the 1990s, when there were Republican, as well as Democratic, legislators willing to take it seriously. And you can argue that adopting it is a public relations rather than a substantive exercise—the House can waive it with a simple majority, and the Senate can waive it as easily as it can overcome a filibuster. So, if there are the votes to circumvent the other procedural hurdles, there are the votes to waive PAYGO when it is desirable. But it is a strange thing to make a priority. Read Josh Bivens’ take on this in “The Bad Economics of PAYGO Swamp Any Strategic Gain from Adopting It,” in which he writes: “A PAYGO rule means that any tax cut or spending increase passed into law needs to be offset in the same spending cycle with tax increases or spending cuts elsewhere in the budget … Many Washington insiders assert forcefully that committing to PAYGO rules in the House for the next Congress is good politics … The strength of evidence supporting this political claim is debatable. What’s less debatable is that PAYGO really has hindered progressive policymaking in the not-so-recent past. For example, it was commitments to adhere to PAYGO that led to the Affordable Care Act having underpowered subsidies for purchasing insurance and, even more importantly, having a long lag in implementation.”
  3. That neither the Bernanke nor the Yellen Fed rethought its commitment to its—asymmetric!—2 percent per year inflation target has always been a mystery to me. The former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis recently outlined some of the risks. Read Narayana Kocherlakota, “The Fed’s Risky Plan to Boost Unemployment,” in which he writes: “The Fed is planning to raise its interest-rate target above its long-run level of around 2.8 percent. We can actually see this happening in the Fed’s rate forecasts for the next 3 years … The Fed is planning to eliminate over a million jobs—and put millions more at risk—in order to avoid a tiny deviation from its inflation target. I’ll leave it for readers to judge whether this is a desirable gamble.”
  4. I confess I was split between thinking that (small) increases in minimum wages have no noticeable effect lowering employment because labor-supply curves are typically nearly vertical and thinking that (small) increases in minimum wages raise employment because they curb employer market power. But the evidence continues to pile up that Card and Krueger are right, and that it is the second—that there is no downside to raising minimum wages at all. Read Barry Ritholtz, “What Minimum-Wage Foes Got Wrong About Seattle,” in which he writes: “An initial study said the increase to $15 would cost workers jobs and hours. That didn’t happen … The increase was an ‘economic death wish’ that was going to tank the expansion and kill jobs, according to the sages at conservative think tanks. The warnings were as unambiguous as they were specific.”
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U.S. economic policies that are pro-work and pro-worker

The start of the new U.S. Congress tomorrow is an opportunity for new economic policy ideas to be introduced and considered. As the 116th Congress gets underway, prime-age employment rates and wage growth remain below their pre-Great Recession levels, young workers struggle to achieve the same markers of economic maturity as prior generations, and the gains from economic growth accrue disproportionately to those at the very top of the income distribution.

Key to thinking of policy solutions to these challenges is to consider what the research shows about how the U.S. economy actually works. Research and analysis by Equitable Growth’s in-house experts and large network of academic grantees point to a wide variety of policies that would better support people’s engagement with the labor force, leading not only to better individual economic outcomes but also to economywide gains.

Tackling unpredictable work schedules would lead to both better personal outcomes and better economic performance. Research by the University of California, San Francisco’s Kristen Harknett and Daniel Schneider finds that unpredictable work hours—the result of employers using on-call scheduling or canceling or extending shifts at the last minute—are associated with financial instability, as well as physical and mental health issues for workers. Unpredictable work schedules are often explained as a necessary cost of doing business even though research increasingly indicates that they actually hurt businesses’ bottom line through employee turnover and absenteeism. A case study done with the cooperation of The Gap Inc. found that improving the consistency of workers’ hours actually led to a 5 percent increase in productivity and 7 percent rise in profits in retail stores. Many cities such as New York, San Francisco, Seattle, Philadelphia, and Emeryville, California, as well as the state of Oregon, are already addressing this problem with new policies that deliver benefits for workers and businesses.

Another example of an economic policy that would support workers’ engagement with the labor force and improve both personal and national economic outcomes is paid leave. Women’s labor force participation stalled out around 2000, after increasing rapidly and steadily over the final quarter of the 20th century, and it is now below that of other advanced economies. Paid leave would increase women’s labor force participation, which, in turn, would increase families’ incomes and decrease their use of public benefits. States, including California, have introduced comprehensive paid leave, which enables economists and policymakers alike to see the impact of introducing paid leave on both employee and employer outcomes. So far, the evidence indicates that paid leave reduces turnover among employees—a boon to businesses—while enabling workers to meet both their caregiving and wage-earning needs.

There’s also a need for policies that will more fundamentally address some of the structural barriers that workers face. One of those barriers is the increase in the monopsony power of employers. Monopsony power is the labor market equivalent of a monopoly, meaning that an industry is so concentrated that workers have few options for employers and so their wages will be set at less than the value they create. As Equitable Growth economist Kate Bahn highlights in her overview of the growing body of research on monopsony power’s effect on workers’ wages, going from a less concentrated labor market to a more concentrated labor market was associated with a 17 percent decline in posted wages. In addition to the impact on individual workers’ wages, new research by Columbia economist and Equitable Growth grantee Suresh Naidu and co-authors finds that monopsony power in the U.S. economy reduces both overall output and employment by 13 percent. Policies that raise worker power such as boosts to unions and collective bargaining will get at the heart of addressing these more structural impediments to engagement with the labor force and economic growth.

Finally, to ensure that people actually experience the benefits from the stronger economic growth that their participation in the labor force is generating, economists and policymakers need to be able to actually measure economic growth at all levels. The Measuring Real Income Growth Act, introduced by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), would allow policymakers to see which income segments, demographic groups, and geographic areas of the country are actually experiencing economic growth by disaggregating the Gross Domestic Product statistics that the federal government produces. This is a key first step to better measuring whether economic growth is actually benefitting and improving the welfare of all Americans, not just some of them.

Policymakers often emphasize the importance of jobs and labor force participation when they talk about solutions to the economic challenges families face. If one accepts that perspective, then there are clearly ways that policy could be doing a better job facilitating that engagement with the labor force. Unpredictable schedules, the lack of paid leave, and monopsony power are all examples of areas where research shows that breakdowns in the market are getting in the way of people being able to actually work to support their families. Policies that actively support workers will improve labor force participation, boost family incomes, improve business outcomes, and support stable and broad-based economic growth—hopefully in a way that people will actually be able to feel.

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Equitable Growth’s Top 12 of 2018

If you follow Equitable Growth on Twitter, you know that we have spent the last 12 days of 2018 counting down the year’s top posts on our new website. Today, we are revealing our #1 post. And here is a list of all our top 12.

Number 12

The effects of wealth taxation on wealth accumulation and wealth inequality
By Nisha Chikhale
April 2

The increase in wealth inequality since the 1980s has led to calls for the increased taxation of wealth, but there is relatively little empirical research on the effects of wealth taxes relative to other types of taxes on business and investment income. New research breaks ground on this topic by examining the experience of Denmark, which imposed a tax on wealth until the end of 1996.

Number 11

Why macroeconomics should further embrace distributional economics
By Nick Bunker
June 11

Ten years ago, some of the failings of macroeconomics models were made quite bare as the Great Recession ripped through the global economy. Economists were—and continue to be—criticized because their models seemed to lack any sort of connection to reality. Yet in one critical area, those charges don’t stick these days. Macroeconomists are increasingly not missing out on one of the biggest trends in the U.S. economy: high levels of income and wealth inequality.

Number 10

The links between stagnating wages and buyer power in U.S. supply chains
By Nathan Wilmers
May 22

Both stagnating wages and the outsized—and still growing—market impact of a small number of giant retailers such as Amazon.com Inc. and Walmart Inc. are well-documented trends. Until now, whether these two trends were linked was less known. New research finds that increased pressure from large corporate buyers decreases wages among their suppliers’ workers, and the growing influence of these buyers on workers’ wages is significant enough that it accounts for around 10 percent of wage stagnation since the 1970s.

Number 9

U.S. income growth has been stagnant. To what degree depends on how you measure it.
By Austin Clemens
November 28

A recent Congressional Budget Office report on the distribution of incomes in the United States has sparked debate about U.S. income growth. Ultimately, this debate is a reminder that policymakers do not currently have a consistent, high-quality measure of how economic growth is distributed.

Number 8

Income inequality and aggregate demand in the United States
By Adrien Auclert and Matthew Rognlie
February 19

Income inequality has been rising for decades in the United States. While there are many reasons why this trend may be concerning, one particular worry for economists and policymakers is the effect that it might have on macroeconomic activity: A rise in income inequality implies more income accruing to the rich, a trend that may be depressing overall consumption and, in turn, lowering aggregate output and employment.

Number 7

Presentation: U.S. Inequality and Recent Tax Changes
By Greg Leiserson
February 22

Equitable Growth’s Director of Tax Policy Greg Leiserson participated in a panel hosted by the Society of Government Economists, in which he explained how the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would likely exacerbate inequality by increasing disparities in economic well-being, after-tax income, and pretax income.

Number 6

The latest research on the efficacy of raising the minimum wage above $10 in six U.S. cities
By Will McGrew
September 6

Researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, have conducted the first comprehensive empirical study on the earnings and employment effects of gradual minimum wage increases in six cities. The research, funded in part by Equitable Growth, finds that the increases in the minimum wage raised workers’ wages without producing job losses.

Number 5

Competitive Edge: There is a lot to fix in U.S. antitrust enforcement today
By Fiona Scott Morton
July 19

Antitrust and competition issues are receiving renewed interest, and for good reason. To address important specific antitrust enforcement and competition issues, Equitable Growth this year launched a new blog titled “Competitive Edge.” This series features leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of topics, and we were honored that Fiona Scott Morton authored this, our inaugural entry.

Number 4

Labor Day is a time to reflect on reviving workers’ power in the U.S. economy
By Kate Bahn
August 31

Labor Day is a time to reflect on the decline of the American labor movement and its impact on all American workers. Union density stands at just higher than 10 percent as of the end of 2017, down from nearly one-third of households in 1950. Alongside this decline in worker bargaining power is the rise of economic inequality, stagnating wages, and a declining share of national income accruing to workers. And in light of the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision in Janus v. American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, unions and economic justice movements are considering where to go from here.

Number 3

Kaldor and Piketty’s facts: The rise of monopoly power in the United States
By Gauti Eggertsson, Jacob Robbins, and Ella Getz Wold
February 12

The macroeconomic data of the past 30 years has overturned at least two of Kaldor’s famous stylized growth facts: constant interest rates and a constant labor share. At the same time, the research of Piketty and others has introduced several new and surprising facts: an increase in the financial wealth-to-output ratio in the United States, an increase in measured Tobin’s Q, and a divergence between the marginal and the average return on capital. In this working paper, the authors argue that these trends can be explained by an increase in market power and pure profits in the U.S. economy, i.e., the emergence of a nonzero-rent economy, along with forces that have led to a persistent long-term decline in real interest rates.

Number 2

How the rise of market power in the United States may explain some macroeconomic puzzles
By Jacob Robbins
February 12

This column describes in layman’s terms the above working paper, our number 3 entry. Written by one of the paper’s co-authors, it notes that macroeconomic data over the past 40 years in the United States have produced a number of surprising, and indeed puzzling, facts about economic growth and rising income and wealth inequality. It notes that the paper argues that these diverse trends are closely connected, and that the driving force behind them is an increase in monopoly power together with a decline in interest rates.

Number 1

Puzzling over U.S. wage growth
By Nick Bunker
May 29

The state of U.S. wage growth these days is puzzling. The unemployment rate is below where it was before the Great Recession back in 2007, but nominal wage growth is below its level that year and hasn’t picked up in recent years (according to some data series). For economists and analysts who believe that a tighter labor market should lead to higher wages, this disconnect is confusing. Here are some thoughts about what’s holding back wage growth in the United States at the moment.

We hope you’ve enjoyed this look back at 2018. Happy New Year from Equitable Growth. We hope you will come back to our site, follow us on social media, and engage with us in other ways as we continue to explore economic inequality, how inequality affects economic growth and stability, and evidence-backed ideas and policies that promote strong, stable, and broad-based growth.

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Weekend reading: “the economic rents are too high” edition

This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth published this week and the second is the work we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

Equitable Growth round-up

This week, Equitable Growth published two new working papers in its Working Paper Series.

The first paper, “Who Profits from Patents,” is by Heidi Williams at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Neviana Petkova at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Patrick Kline at the University of California, Berkeley, and Owen Zidar at Princeton University. They found evidence that firms who secure patents do share the financial benefits from them with workers—but only those already earning the most. Read more about the study and its findings in Raksha Kopparam’s post on our Value Added blog.

The second working paper, “How does market power affect wages? Monopsony and collective action in an institutional context,” is by economists Mark Paul of New College of Florida and Mark Stelzner of Connecticut College. They construct a labor market model to better understand the theoretical implications of firms’ monopsony power. As the authors explain in a column on their paper, one of the main findings of their work is that unions, and collective labor action in general, are rent-reducing and efficiency-enhancing when monopsony power is present.

Equitable Growth also launched its new landing page for its Competitive Edge blog series, a monthly series featuring leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of competition-related topics, in a post by Raksha Kopparam providing an overview of the entries published so far. The latest entry is by John Kwoka, the Neal F. Finnegan Distinguished Professor of Economics at Northeastern University, who explains how a structural presumption in U.S. merger control policy would strengthen modern antitrust enforcement.

Michael Kades writes about the key takeaways for antitrust enforcement from Equitable Growth’s recent event, “Building a new consensus on antitrust reform,” which included a keynote address by Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN).

Greg Leiserson and Adam Looney, a senior fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings and the Director of the Center on Regulation and Markets at Brookings, have authored an issue brief setting out a new framework for economic analysis of tax regulations. Leiserson and Looney argue that the analysis of regulations should focus on the revenues raised and the economic burden imposed on the public, rather than attempting to quantify the net benefit or cost of a regulation, as doing the latter would require the agencies to make controversial assumptions about the social value of revenues and the appropriate distribution of the tax burden.

Read Brad Delong’s latest worthy reads.

Links from around the web

The Economist’s pick of the decade’s eight best young economists included five Equitable Growth grantees: Nathaniel Hendren of Harvard, Emi Nakamura of the University of California-Berkeley, Stefanie Stantcheva of Harvard, Amir Sufi of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and Heidi Williams of MIT. [economist]

The latest guidance from the Federal Reserve indicates that it plans to raise interest rates in 2019 in order to hit the inflation target half of its dual mandate. Narayana Kocherlakota, former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, points out that the other half of its dual mandate, ensuring full employment in the economy, could suffer, as unemployment would likely rise as a result. [bloomberg]

As new businesses and jobs concentrate in urban areas, it’s difficult to design policies to help rural economies keep up. Eduardo Porter argues for policies that would encourage and help people to move where the jobs are. [nyt]

High school students from low-income families are less likely to enroll in selective four-year colleges even when they have the grades and test scores to get in. But a study by researchers at the University of Michigan found that just by sending a personalized letter to these students telling them that they qualify for existing financial aid programs increased applications by 40 percentage points and enrollment by 15 percentage points compared to a control group. [wapo]

Friday Figure

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Brad DeLong: Worthy reads on equitable growth, December 13–19, 2018

Worthy reads from Equitable Growth:

  1. Patent publication turns out to be a very valuable societal institution indeed, viewed as a way of disseminating knowledge, write Deepak Hegde, Kyle Herkenhoff, and Chenqi Zhu in “Patent Publication and Technology Spillovers”: “[I]nvention disclosure through patents (i) increases technology spillovers at the extensive and intensive margins; (ii) increases overlap between distant but related patents and decreases overlap between similar patents; (iii) lowers average inventive step, originality, and scope of new patents; (iv) decreases patent abandonments; and (v) increases patenting…”
  2. Workers—but only high-paid workers—capture about 30 cents of every extra dollar in revenue generated by the monopoly power conferred by a patent. This is another piece of evidence that workers—but again, only high-paid workers—are, to a substantial but not overwhelming extent, effective equity holders in American businesses. See “Who Profits from Patents? Rent-Sharing at Innovative Firms,” by Patrick Kline, Neviana Petkova, Heidi Williams, and Owen Zidar: “Comparing firms whose patent applications were initially allowed to those whose patent applications were initially rejected … patent allowances lead firms to increase employment, but entry wages and workforce composition are insensitive to patent decisions. … Workers capture roughly 30 cents of every dollar of patent-induced surplus in higher earnings. … These earnings effects are concentrated among men and workers in the top half of the earnings distribution, and are paired with corresponding improvements in worker retention among these groups…”
  3. Equitable Growth Steering Committee Member Karen Dynan, in a video conversation with Jay Shambaugh and Eduardo Porter about whether the U.S. government is properly prepared to fight the next recession, makes clear that the answer is no, in “What Tools Does the U.S. Have to Combat the Next Recession?” To paraphrase: Today’s lower equilibrium interest rates make it more likely that monetary policy would need to make use of unconventional tools to spur the economy. On the fiscal front, we have a much larger level of government debt relative to GDP than we did prior to the financial crisis. However, viewing this level of debt to GDP as a reason to restrain stimulus spending in case of a crisis could make the problem worse. Whether the government uses fiscal policy to stimulate the economy will depend more on political willingness, than on the actual limits on fiscal policy…
  4. An excellent interview with Equitable Growth Research Advisory Board Member Lisa Cook, “On invention gaps, hate-related violence, discrimination, and more,” where she says: “One of the first things I do [in Dakar, Senegal] is to buy a Bic pen. … Each one was 10 dollars! Ten dollars! This completely stunned me. I knew how poor most people were. I knew students had to have these pens to write in their blue books. It just started this whole train of thought…”

Worthy reads not from Equitable Growth:

  1. Scale economies are not growing in the American economy. But monopoly power is, writes Jonathan Baker in “Market Power or Just Scale Economies?”: “Growing market power provides a better explanation for higher price-cost margins and rising concentration in many industries, declining economic dynamism, and other contemporary U.S. trends, than the most plausible benign alternative: increased scale economies and temporary returns to the first firms to adopt new information technologies (IT) in competitive markets. The benign alternative has an initial plausibility. … Yet six of the nine reasons I gave for thinking market power is substantial and widening in the U.S. in my testimony cannot be reconciled with the benign alternative. … None of the reasons is individually decisive: There are ways to question or push back against each. But their weaknesses are different, so, taken collectively, they paint a compelling picture of substantial and widening market power over the late 20th century and early 21st century…”
  2. Brink Lindsey, Will Wilkinson, Steven Teles, and Samuel Hammond write, in “The Center Can Hold: Public Policy for an Age of Extremes”: “We need both greater reliance on market competition and expanded, more robust, and better-crafted social insurance … government activism to enhance opportunity … less corrupt and more law-like governance … a new ideological lens: one that sees government and market not as either-or antagonists, but as necessary complements…”
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Equitable Growth antitrust conference presents incoming 116th U.S. Congress and the two antitrust agencies with potential new merger enforcement ideas

In the wake of the November midterm elections and in preparation for the arrival of the new 116th Congress in January, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth held an event, “Building a new consensus on antitrust reform,” to discuss how to improve U.S. antitrust enforcement. In her opening remarks, Equitable Growth’s Executive Director and chief economist Heather Boushey explained that there is growing evidence that the United States suffers from a monopoly problem, and that “today’s conversation is about bringing together experts to discuss how to make antitrust more effective.” Echoing those concerns in his closing remarks, economics professor Carl Shapiro at the University of California, Berkeley pointed to a mismatch that is driving the need for reform: “We need antitrust more than in a long time because we have big firms with economic power, and yet we have less antitrust,” he said, because the courts have shrunk the scope of antitrust doctrines over the past 40 years.

The keynote address by Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) set the overarching framework for the event. As both chairwoman and ranking member of the Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights, Sen. Klobuchar has promoted competition policy before it became fashionable, raising concerns about troubling mergers such as Comcast/Time Warner Cable and Canadian Pacific/Norfolk Southern, and criticizing anticompetitive practices that increase prescription drug prices. She introduced two significant antitrust bills in 1997: the “Merger Enforcement Improvement Act” and the “Consolidation Prevention and Competition Promotion Act.” (As a counsel detailee for Sen. Klobuchar, I worked on both bills.)

In her address, Sen. Klobuchar stressed the problems created or exacerbated by a lack of competition: higher prices for consumers, lower wages for workers, fewer entrepreneurs successfully starting new businesses, and less innovation. Both “inaction from Congress, paralyzed inaction” and “a very conservative court” are obstacles to addressing monopoly power in the U.S. economy, she said, finishing her address with a challenge to those interested in reform: “I believe the time has come to get movement on antitrust,” but it will take a “political movement to get this done.”

How to restore antitrust enforcement? Twice before (in 1914 and 1950), Congress modified the law to reinvigorate antitrust enforcement. Taking a page from the original antitrust expert Louis Brandeis, Benton Senior Fellow and former senior federal antitrust attorney Jon Sallet discussed the principles for reform: “Brandeis believed that legislators creating antitrust laws should consider broad economic and social issues.” At the same time, Brandeis believed that the legal standards themselves need to be objective and focus on economic outcomes. These changes should be based on expertise. Further, competition may not solve all market problems, in which case sector-specific regulation may be necessary. Finally, Brandeis encouraged a spirit of experimentation.

Taking up Brandeis’ call for innovation and experimentation were Sandheep Vaheesan, legal director at the Open Market Institute, Northeastern University economics professor John Kwoka, and Renata Hesse, former acting assistant attorney general for antirust, all of whom joined Sallet to discuss potential improvements in antitrust law. There was broad consensus that the legislative branch has been somewhat of an absentee landlord when it comes to the antitrust laws. As Vaheesan put it, “It is time for Congress to fully reclaim authority,” or as Hesse said, “We need to hear from Congress what its expectations are” for antitrust enforcement. There was further agreement that antitrust enforcement can be improved. Kwoka described a “hardening of the arteries of the competitive process.” Finally, there was general agreement that complexity in antitrust cases may be increasing costs without improving accuracy.

That increase in complexity has been the direct result of courts demanding more proof before finding a violation. UC Berkeley’s Shapiro suggested that Congress could remedy this problem by identifying factual conditions in which mergers are likely to be anticompetitive, or what is known as a presumption. In those situations, a court would have to find the challenged conduct illegal unless the defendants could show that the specific case is an exception to the general rule.

Currently, one presumption exists in merger law: the structural presumption. In horizontal mergers (mergers between competitors), if a merger significantly increases concentration in a highly concentrated market, then it is presumed anticompetitive and is illegal, unless the defendants come forward with evidence that the deal is not anticompetitive.

The panelists supported strengthening the structural presumption. In addition, they discussed potential new presumptions that Congress could create to improve antitrust enforcement. Sallet suggested developing a presumption for when a vertical merger (a combination between firms at different levels of the supply chain) is likely to be anticompetitive. Shapiro suggested Congress should identify the conditions that trigger a presumption when close competitors merge, when a merger eliminates a maverick competitor, or when a dominant firm acquires a potential competitor.

On process, both Hesse and Kwoka advocated for increased resources for the two antitrust enforcement agencies, the U.S. Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission. According to Hesse, based on her experience, the antitrust division has been resourced-constrained since 2013.

The panelists offered other ideas. Vaheesan argued for eliminating the consumer welfare standard as the guiding principle of antitrust law. Kwoka pointed out that currently the antitrust agencies are not challenging a significant number of mergers that are presumptively anticompetitive under their own Horizontal Merger Guidelines. The agencies’ strictly adhering to those guidelines would result in significantly more enforcement actions.

There needs to be more discussion of these ideas and others, but the participants in this lively event provided an overview of the potential tools to improve antitrust enforcement that the incoming 116th Congress and the two antitrust agencies should consider.

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A framework for economic analysis of tax regulations

In April 2018, the U.S. Treasury and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) agreed to a new process under which OMB would review tax regulations prior to their release. Under this agreement, the analytic requirements imposed on economically significant non-tax regulations apply to many more tax regulations than in the past. However, neither OMB nor Treasury have issued a formal statement about their approach to conducting economic analysis of tax regulations. Moreover, applying OMB’s standard guidance for regulatory analysis to tax regulations would bias the regulatory process against raising revenue and stopping abuse, and would impair the effective administration of tax law.

This brief outlines an alternative framework for the economic analysis of tax regulations that can aid Treasury and the IRS in the development of effective regulations. The resulting analysis would also provide legislators and the public with the relevant information for assessing tax regulations’ economic merits.

Treasury and the IRS should conduct a formal economic analysis of regulations in two cases. First, for regulations that implement recent tax legislation, the agencies should conduct an analysis if they have substantial discretion in designing the regulation and if different ways of doing so would vary substantially in their economic effects. Second, for regulations unrelated to recent legislation, the agencies should conduct an analysis if the regulation would have large economic effects relative to current practice.

The economic analysis conducted in these cases should focus on the revenues raised and the economic burden imposed on the public as a result of the agencies’ exercise of discretion or the new application of existing authority. The revenues raised and the burden imposed reflect the fundamental tradeoff in taxation, and thus determine a regulation’s costs and benefits. However, the analysis should not attempt to quantify the net benefit or net cost of a regulation as doing so would require the agencies to make controversial assumptions about the social value of revenues and the appropriate distribution of the tax burden. Treasury’s Office of Tax Analysis is well-equipped to provide estimates of revenues and burden as they can be built from analyses the Office already produces: revenue estimates, distributional analyses, and compliance cost estimates.

We are optimistic that an increased role for economic analysis has the potential to improve tax regulations, but the experience since the April agreement raises significant concerns. The new review process has delayed the release of guidance implementing the 2017 Tax Act, and it has increased the resources required to complete each regulatory project. However, there is little evidence to suggest it has improved the resulting regulations. Should that continue to be the case, it raises a more fundamental question of whether the new review process should be continued. Absent improvements, a future administration may want to consider reverting to the more limited review of tax regulations that existed prior to the recent agreement between Treasury and OMB.

Download the full issue brief. Download File
ES_20181220_Looney-OIRA-Tax-Regs

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Rethinking collective action and U.S. labor laws in a monopsonistic economy

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – NOVEMBER 28, 2014: Striking Walmart workers and supporters protest against low wages and charge that Walmart retaliates against employees who push for better working conditions.

Discussions today are pervasive among economists and policymakers about the increasing rise of firms’ market power and the potential negative effects of that power on the U.S. economy. Of particular concern is the rise of new technologies and the dominance of platform giants—such as Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc.’s Google unit, Apple Inc., and Uber Technologies Inc., among others—which are not improving the U.S. socioeconomic landscape by reaping gains from potential economies of scale, but rather are throwing around their weight to suppress wages, raise prices on consumers, and enter the political arena to ensure the federal government allows the U.S. economy to continue on the path of market consolidation.

Many economists point to this disconcerting rise in market power as leading to a simultaneous rise in monopsony power—the ability of the firm to have an influence over the determination of workers’ wages—which may contribute to the persistence of stagnant wages despite relatively low headline unemployment numbers in recent times. This is in stark contrast to decades of research and modeling in economics following the so-called marginalist revolution in the discipline, which resulted in most economists simply treating monopsony power as a special case only existing in the now long-gone company towns of Homestead, Pennsylvania, and Pullman, Illinois, of the 19th century or in highly concentrated island economies of introductory economics textbooks.1

Recent empirical investigations into U.S. labor markets no longer allow reasonable economists to bury their heads in the sand about market power and assume that workers’ wages are simply equal to the value of their marginal product or service. There’s now insurmountable evidence that monopsony power is prevalent throughout the U.S. economy, though the degree to which it may contribute to widening income inequality and underemployment remains an open question. These findings imply that employers can siphon off “rents”—economic parlance for excessive profits beyond the cost of production—from workers through the exercise of monopsony power. These findings are the complete opposite of the dynamic formulated in most current labor market models.

In our new Washington Center for Equitable Growth working paper, “Monopsony and Collective Action in an Institutional Context,” we seek to better understand the theoretical implications of this new and growing empirical literature on monopsony power and the resulting lower wages for workers. We construct a monopsony-wage model that integrates the strategic interaction between workers and employers in the wage-setting process into an institutional context where we consider the support, or lack thereof, of institutions such as the government and the courts for workers, as opposed to firms.

To better understand these ideas, we construct a labor market model with monopsony power as the starting point and workers’ collective action as a form of countervailing power. Borrowing the term countervailing power from the late economist John Kenneth Galbraith, we use it to represent the fact that workers’ collective action can act as an alternative to the regulation of labor markets to improve socioal efficiency, though the two should certainly be thought of as complements.2

By taking monopsony power as the starting point, we paint a very different picture than the traditional Econ 101 understanding of labor markets. Our model leads to a reconceptualization of some of the important dynamics within labor markets, with significant implications for how economists understand many important outcomes such as the current rise in income inequality, the trajectory of strike activity, and in clarifying the role of unions with regard to the overall social efficiency of labor markets.

One of the main findings of our work is that unions, and collective labor action in general, are rent-reducing and efficiency-enhancing when monopsony power is present. Essentially, collective action neutralizes, to some degree, the wage-setting power of firms by reducing the rent that firms siphon from workers via their wage-setting power. Increases in wages may reduce profits but will decrease rents. This is completely contradictory to how most economists conceive of workers’ collective action, which they see as costly and rent-seeking. But this misplaced view is contingent on the starting point of whether monopsony power exists.

Recent empirical work that shows firms have wage-setting power led us to use monopsony power as the starting point, completely re-centering the role of collective action from one of rent-seeking to rent-reducing. A natural conclusion from this starting point and our subsequent findings is that the U.S. economy needs more unions, and we certainly do. But unions don’t exist in a vacuum. Understanding the potential effects of the institutional setting in which they operate, including the government and the courts, how workers collective action takes place is critical to understanding how to build a more equitable and just labor market.

Institutional support for workers in the United States used to range from judicial backing of unions in the early 19th century to statute legislation that protects workers collective bargaining activity such as the National Labor Relations Act, and including social norms that prescribe, at least to a degree, certain anti-union activities such as the usage of permanent replacement workers during economic strikes in the mid-20th century. Today, more recent court rulings and government regulatory action do not support workers. A recent example of a major rollback of institutional support of unions can be seen in the Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees case, where the U.S. Supreme Court devastated public-sector unions by ruling that these unions may not charge nonmembers “agency fees” for contract negotiation and other services that affect all employees in the same workplace.

Of course, there are other examples reaching beyond unions such as the courts and policymakers allowing the proliferation of noncompete clauses to further hamstring workers. But when we built institutional support into our model, we found that when the government is more supportive toward laborers, then workers will engage in more collective action. This is because greater levels of support from government or the courts increases the probability of labor winning from collective action, which then leads to more collective action taking place. As a result, firms have a greater catalyst to raise wages as they seek to reduce workers’ wage-setting activities.

In contrast, we also find that a lack of institutional support will devastate unions’ ability to function as a balance to firms’ monopsony power, potentially with major consequences. And as things stand today, the balance of power between workers and their employers pertaining to institutional support rests with big business rather than workers. In turn, we find that labor market outcomes will be less socially efficient, and a portion of the current rise in income inequality in the United States over the past four decades partially stems from the wages of many workers being pushed below the value of the marginal product. In other words, firms are pushing wages to artificially low levels by leveraging their power over their workers.

Indeed, the largest employer in the United States today is Walmart Inc., which is famously opposed to any type of collective worker activities. Several studies demonstrate that a Walmart store moving into a community decreases wages. In the mid-20th century, General Motors Co. helped build the U.S. middle class through compromises between the nation’s giant firms and unions. Today, the Walmart model defines much of current labor market interactions across firms but without unions to balance the power of firms.

The path ahead for U.S. workers remains precarious. Despite a relatively tight labor market, nonmanagerial workers have been unable to make much progress in terms of real wage gains. Our new working paper highlights the role of monopsony power in suppressing workers’ wages when it is unchecked by countervailing power from both unions and our public institutions at large. Further, we demonstrate that building worker power without also building public power will be unlikely to rebalance the seesaw between workers and capitalists.

It’s time for economists and policymakers alike to face up to this market-power problem. We cannot allow firms to set all the terms in an unbridled labor market. Rebalancing the power of workers vis-à-vis their employers can only be achieved through rebuilding a progressive and inclusive labor movement in the United States, while simultaneously pressing our increasingly conservative courts to protect workers.

As Adam Smith once wrote, “We rarely hear, it is said, of the combination of masters [to obtain power over the wage], though frequently of those of workmen. But whoever imagines, upon this account, that masters rarely combine, is as ignorant of the world as of this subject. Masters are always and everywhere in a sort of tacit and uniform combination, not to raise the wages of labor above their actual rate.”3

—Mark Paul is an assistant professor of economics at New College of Florida and a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. Mark Stelzner is an assistant professor of economics at Connecticut College.

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Introducing the “Competitive Edge” blog series

Today marks the fifth installment of Equitable Growth’s recently launched “Competitive Edge” blog series, which features experts in antitrust law on a broad range of subjects, including the state of enforcement today, proposals for reform, potential policies that promote competition, and the practical realities that enforcers face. Competitive Edge provides a platform for experts, particularly those with enforcement experience, to add their voices to the important antitrust policy debates that are occurring.

The image for this blog series (seen above) reflects our goals. A harpoon is aimed squarely at an octopus that controls various industries. The octopus is an updated version of an iconic image for monopoly, taken from a 1904 publication of Puck magazine that portrays the then-monopolistic stranglehold of Standard Oil Co. We hope this blog series helps promote and sharpen effective tools to increase competition in the United States economy. Equitable Growth now has a landing page for the series, where readers can find all the contributions.

In the inaugural post, Fiona Scott Morten, former deputy assistant attorney general for economics at the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice, takes up the challenge of describing what more antitrust enforcers could be doing under current law—specifically, what types of cases enforcers should investigate. Discussing papers (supported by Equitable Growth) presented at The Yale Law Journal symposium (also supported by Equitable Growth), Morten explains that “The Yale Law Journal issue lays out an initial roadmap of cases that are well-grounded in economic analysis and legal precedent” and “would make U.S. markets more competitive.” Potential targets for enforcement identified by Morten include conduct deterring challenges to online platforms, market power possessed by buyers, predatory pricing, and vertical mergers.

The second contribution, by former Director of the Federal Trade Commission’s Bureau of Economics Howard Shelanski and Equitable Growth’s Director of Markets and Competition Policy Michael Kades, discusses what then-U.S. Court of Appeals Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s elevation to the U.S. Supreme Court might mean for antitrust law, examining his dissents in two antitrust cases. Specifically, they write, his rigid Chicago School approach holds the potential to weaken the antitrust law’s limitations on mergers. His high bar for finding violations hints at a preference for loosely enforced antitrust laws.

Next, former Deputy Assistant Attorney General in the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice Jonathan Sallet weighed in on the Federal Trade Commission’s series of hearings regarding the current state of competition and the debate over the “consumer welfare” standard: what it is, what role it plays in antitrust law, and whether it is still the appropriate standard today. He explains both sides of the argument but ultimately states that discussions around the protection of competitive processes are key to solidifying the strength of antitrust enforcement.

In November, former Federal Trade Commissioner Terrell McSweeny addressed the challenges artificial intelligence and algorithms pose for antitrust enforcement. McSweeny recommends an independent bureau within the enforcement agencies that is dedicated to the enforcement of antitrust laws in the technology sector. In addition, she emphasizes the need for enforcers to educate themselves on the changes in technology and how such changes impact competition.

Earlier today, John Kwoka, the Neal F. Finnegan Distinguished Professor of Economics at Northeastern University, provided one recommendation for improving merger enforcement: restore the 50-year-old legal doctrine called the structural presumption. Under this rule, mergers that lead to concentration above certain levels are presumed illegal. Over the past several decades, both the courts and the antitrust enforcement agencies have weakened the structural presumption. Using data on the effects of mergers and agency enforcement rates, Kwoka advocates for the revival of the structural presumption as a means of advancing antitrust enforcement without burdening agency resources.

Keep an eye out for the next installments of the Competitive Edge blog series, coming in 2019!

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