Grant Category

Macroeconomics and Inequality

What are the implications of inequality on the long-term stability of our economy and its growth potential?

What are the implications of inequality on the long-term stability of our economy and its growth potential?

A larger share of U.S. national income has been flowing to the individuals at the top of the income and wealth ladder. These individuals are less likely to spend and more likely to save their money than those with lower income. There is evidence that growing income inequality may be contributing to the so-called secular stagnation of macroeconomic growth.

Growing income inequality likely bears on macroeconomic performance through other channels as well. The lower real interest rates that have resulted from higher global saving will limit the ability of conventional monetary policy to stabilize the economy in the next economic downturn. Growing inequality has also contributed to a growing sense that the economy isn’t working for most families, fueling both distrust in institutions and greater political polarization.

We need to better understand the implications of inequality on the long-term stability of our economy and its growth potential. The large and sustained rise in inequality across income and wealth groups, as well as the disparate performance of different geographies and demographic groups, make understanding how these trends could exacerbate economic instability and reduce economic growth a pressing national concern.

  • The effects of monetary policy
  • The effects of fiscal policy
  • The effects of the tax and transfer system
  • Political economy

Explore the Grants We've Awarded

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Balancing stability and growth in mid-century banking

Grant Year: 2016

Grant Amount: $15,000

Grant Type: doctoral

How did the reorganization of the U.S. banking sector after World War II alter the relationship between profitable investment and macroeconomic stability? The researcher will address that question through archival research and by drawing on a substantial body of secondary historical and economic literature. As political debates on financial regulation and trade agreements show no sign of abating, this work will provide useful context and framing for those debates.

Cyclical underemployment: Causes and consequences of inequality

Grant Year: 2016

Grant Amount: $15,000

Grant Type: doctoral

This project links traditional macroeconomic models with labor models, specifically through the incorporation of the job ladder. The goal is lofty: to construct a comprehensive measure of underemployment and integrate it into commonly-used economic models, thereby providing evidence about the effects of underemployment on labor market functionality over the business cycle and on inequality more broadly. We view this project as a significant academic contribution with immediate policy relevance given the emerging debates over appropriate responses to the next recession.

Understanding debt, inequality and consumption behavior: The U.S. in the 2000s

Grant Year: 2014

Grant Amount: $60,000

Grant Type: academic

The level of private debt in the U.S. economy rose considerably during the 2000s. This research will investigate how much of that increase was due to the weak job growth of that decade. If the debt run-up was due to consumers’ borrowing to cover necessities after a job loss, the policy implications are quite different than if it were due to reckless consumer spending. This research will also look at how debt was distributed across the population by age, race, and income, and how that distribution changed during the 2000s. A better understanding of the causes of increased debt and knowing who increased their debt load the most will help us better understand the importance of savings and the relationship between consumer demand and economic growth.

Household debt, municipal debt and aggregate demand

Grant Year: 2015

Grant Amount: $45,000

Grant Type: academic

The researchers will use an historical accounting methodology, established in earlier work, to examine the extent to which changes in household leverage have contributed to shifts in aggregate demand over the past 80 years. They will expand this accounting framework to analyze municipal debt—both an important asset in financial markets and a critical source of finance for local public goods. The results and underlying data will likely provide new evidence on how debt affects the macroeconomy and will have implications for monetary policy as well as policy responses to levels of private and public leverage.

Impact of the great rise in finance on resource allocation and employment

Grant Year: 2015

Grant Amount: $60,000

Grant Type: academic

The authors will investigate how large increases in household debt affect the allocation of labor across geographical areas and industries. This project is a continuation of their previous research on household debt, and will result in the creation of a new historical county-level panel of household balance sheets and industry-specific employment—a harmonized data set (1946-2012) that will be available to other researchers. A second contribution is a test of whether the run-up in debt led to imbalances in employment, a corollary to the findings in Mian and Sufi (2014) about employment shocks during the Great Recession. A better understanding of the interaction between household debt and structural changes in the allocation of labor could help researchers better identify and understand the root causes behind the labor market slowdown.

Inequality, aggregate demand, and secular stagnation

Grant Year: 2015

Grant Amount: $15,000

Grant Type: doctoral

Over the past two years, “secular stagnation” has been widely discussed within the policy community. Supporters of the secular-stagnation hypothesis believe that demand may be permanently below supply capacity, with low interest rates and inflation targets by central banks preventing real interest rates from falling to the point necessary to restore the supply and demand balance. Widening income inequality has been cited as one cause of secular stagnation. This project will develop a theoretical model to illuminate how income inequality affects aggregate income and therefore economic growth. The model has important implications for economic policy, particularly monetary policy.

Experts

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Guillermo Gallacher

Indeed Hiring Lab

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Guest Author

John Majewski

University of California, Santa Barbara

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Saba Waheed

University of California, Los Angeles

UCLA Labor Center Director

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Jesse Rothstein

University of California, Berkeley

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Andres Drenik

University of Texas, Austin

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