This project will use longitudinal data from two states to explore racial disparities in access to family child care centers by looking at rates of homeownership and disparities in homeownership by race. Family child care centers—licensed child care centers located within an operator’s home—make up a declining but still substantial proportion of the supply of formal child care. There are many obstacles to licensing a family child care center in a rental property, so areas with low rates of homeownership may experience a lack of access to this often more affordable child care option. Family child care centers also tend to have more flexible hours, making them especially valuable for parents working irregular or unpredictable schedules. Borowsky will conduct a market-definition analysis intended to approximate regions of common demand and supply. He will then evaluate the extent to which low rates of homeownership in a region are associated with low supply of family child care centers.

As the U.S. economy emerges from the coronavirus recession, public policies to support women’s ability to return to work and stay in the workforce will be necessary for economic recovery. This study seeks to assess if paid sick leave reduces short-term income volatility and increases long-term economic security through improved job attachment among women, particularly those who are less likely to have access to paid sick leave in the absence of paid sick leave mandates. Using the American Community Survey, Slopen will conduct analyses at the state and county level using the five states and 21 counties that implemented paid sick leave as the treatment group. She will exploit the variation in the timing of the implementation of mandates at the state or county level using a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the effect of paid sick leave mandates on women’s labor force participation, continuity of employment, weekly hours worked, income, and poverty. She also will identify effects on subpopulations most likely to lack access to paid sick leave in the absence of mandates.

This project investigates the causal effects of discriminatory assessment practices introduced by the New Deal-era federal agency, the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation. Specifically, the two researchers plan to examine HOLC’s systematic evaluation of neighborhoods and the maps it produced based on credit risk. Research has already led to the understanding that HOLC practices were a type of institutional discrimination. Data collected by the two researchers show that in 1930, about 86 percent of Black Americans lived in areas deemed hazardous (denoted in red on the maps, hence the term “redlining”) while almost 98 percent of the population in higher-rated areas was White. This research will measure how grade assignments affected the evolution of home values, income composition, and residential segregation in the short run and the long run. They will tackle the question by exploiting the fact that only cities over a certain population threshold were affected by the program. They will utilize a machine-learning algorithm to compare redlined neighborhoods with those that would have been redlined had the city been large enough to be affected by the program.

This project examines how increasing labor market polarization affects the transmission of monetary policy. Specifically, Morrison will examine how heterogeneity in worker substitutability with capital affects the role the labor market plays in the transmission of monetary policy. The research will estimate the importance of a heterogeneous worker-capital substitutability channel of monetary policy—investment spurred by monetary policy will have muted effects on aggregate consumption if workers whose labor is complementary with capital tend to have lower marginal propensities to consume. To investigate this phenomenon, she first plans to build and solve a model that captures this effect, then estimate the impulse-response functions of wages of workers in various skill categories to unexpected expansionary monetary shocks.

This project investigates the relationship between two trends: the significant rise in regional inequality in the United States, with a small number of highly educated urban cities accounting for a growing share of national income, and the increasing dominance of large, multiregion services firms such as Amazon.com Inc., Walmart Inc., and Starbucks Corp., as reflected in measures of average firm size and market concentration. These “superstar” firms create high-paying, high-skill jobs in large cities and low-paying jobs in nonurban areas across the country, displacing local and regional competitors in the process and leading to increasingly unequal demand for skills across regions. Kleinman will utilize private data from Dun and Bradstreet and Burning Glass Technologies, as well as public data from the American Community Survey and the Panel Database on Incentives and Taxes. He will combine an empirical investigation of the relationship between firms’ spatial expansion and regional inequality with the development and quantification of a novel economic geography model that features expansion of multiregion firms to analyze the labor demand of firms across different markets and occupations.

There is a large literature exploring the tension between increasing minimum wages in order to raise the hourly wages of workers and having these increases offset by reductions in overall employment or hours worked by low-wage employees. Understanding the distributional impacts of minimum wage increases is therefore essential. This project seeks to provide some of the first empirical evidence on how minimum wage reforms change firms’ occupational composition, distribution of hours, and scheduling practices. To do this, the authors will leverage shift-level microdata for the near-universe of employees and contract workers at U.S. nursing homes from the Payroll Based Journal program. The nursing home industry is an attractive setting for this research as it is a major employer of low-wage workers, especially certified nursing assistants, who provide the majority of patient care at nursing homes, are typically paid at or just above the minimum wage, and the majority of whom are immigrants and women of color. Moreover, many low-wage staff intend to work in the industry throughout their careers, in stark contrast to more heavily studied low-wage industries such as restaurants and retail, where many workers expect to leave the industry quickly. Accordingly, wage policies in the nursing home sector have the potential to not only affect the economic well-being of low-income workers but also shape gender and racial pay divides. In addition, the nursing home industry is of particular interest to regulators and policymakers since Medicaid and Medicare finance the vast majority of long-term care, and policies that affect the wages of employees in this sector will correspondingly affect state and federal budgets. Employment or composition changes may also have important consequences for quality of care.