Grant Category

Macroeconomics and Inequality

What are the implications of inequality on the long-term stability of our economy and its growth potential?

What are the implications of inequality on the long-term stability of our economy and its growth potential?

A larger share of U.S. national income has been flowing to the individuals at the top of the income and wealth ladder. These individuals are less likely to spend and more likely to save their money than those with lower income. There is evidence that growing income inequality may be contributing to the so-called secular stagnation of macroeconomic growth.

Growing income inequality likely bears on macroeconomic performance through other channels as well. The lower real interest rates that have resulted from higher global saving will limit the ability of conventional monetary policy to stabilize the economy in the next economic downturn. Growing inequality has also contributed to a growing sense that the economy isn’t working for most families, fueling both distrust in institutions and greater political polarization.

We need to better understand the implications of inequality on the long-term stability of our economy and its growth potential. The large and sustained rise in inequality across income and wealth groups, as well as the disparate performance of different geographies and demographic groups, make understanding how these trends could exacerbate economic instability and reduce economic growth a pressing national concern.

  • The effects of monetary policy
  • The effects of fiscal policy
  • The effects of the tax and transfer system
  • Political economy

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Manufacturing employment, trade and structural change

Grant Year: 2017

Grant Amount: $15,000

Grant Type: doctoral

The political resonance of the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment has reached a fever pitch in recent years, with calls for a return of manufacturing jobs. But how feasible is such a goal in light of structural changes in the U.S. economy, such as technological growth? This project will try to answer this question by developing a model that will decompose the total decline in manufacturing into decline due to structural change and decline due to increased international trade. It also aims to put the decline of manufacturing in a global perspective. It proposes to study cross-country patterns of structural change by studying 25 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, offering a new look at the current controversy of trade versus technology in employment.

From liberty street to main street: firms, monetary policy and labor market outcomes

Grant Year: 2017

Grant Amount: $15,000

Grant Type: doctoral

According to its mandate, the Federal Reserve is required to foster maximum employment. The central bank tries to do this by affecting aggregate demand by loosening or tightening the flow of credit. The distributional impact of these decisions is unclear when it comes to the labor market. This research assesses how changes in monetary policy affect the demand for different kinds of workers and redistribute labor income and represents an exciting extension of recent literature on firm effects.

Firm and market shocks, wage risk, and the protection provided by government institutions: evidence from IRS tax data

Grant Year: 2017

Grant Amount: $76,050

Grant Type: academic

Researchers and policymakers are increasingly discovering the important role of firms when it comes to earnings. Shocks to the productivity of firms or industry—for example, a firm closing, or an industry shrinking—appear to be an important contributor to workers’ earnings and employment volatility. This project will investigate how different shocks to firms and the market are passed onto employees of that firm and, importantly, the effectiveness of U.S. social insurance programs—for example, unemployment insurance, Social Security programs, etc.—in buffering households against shocks to their incomes. Whereas most of the work on these issues to date is limited to either looking at workers independently from firms or industries, or at shocks that result in substantial displacement, the researchers will utilize IRS data that allow them to link individuals to the firms that employ them, opening a rich field of research questions that it has not previously been possible to answer. Research findings will likely provide details to help us understand where problems may be greatest, or provide new evidence on places where institutions are more successful in mitigating negative shocks.

The color of wealth in Boston

Grant Year: 2017

Grant Amount: $70,000

Grant Type: academic

This project is an extension of the National Asset Scorecard for Communities of Color, or NASCC, a city-level analysis of wealth inequality. Previously, the research team surveyed five cities with large non-white populations with the aim of measuring household wealth at the level of detailed racial and ethnic categories. Specifically, this grant will support the second wave of the NASCC in Boston, which will be representative of subgroups of Asian households as well as the originally sampled groups from the previous wave. Findings will make an important contribution to the wealth inequality literature, going beyond the broad categories of “black” and “Hispanic” to provide more granular data on the economic situation of racial and ethnic groups in the Boston metropolitan area.

Wealth inequality and wealth returns heterogeneity

Grant Year: 2017

Grant Amount: $50,000

Grant Type: academic

Recent research has clearly shown that the inequality of labor earnings, by itself, is not enough to explain the inequality of wealth. Utilizing a series of remarkable administrative records on the population of Norway from 1995 to 2015, where individuals are subject to both income and wealth taxation, this research seeks to fill a gap in our knowledge by addressing both our theoretical understanding of how wealth is accumulated and our empirical understanding of the distribution of wealth across individuals and households.

Secular stagnation and inequality

Grant Year: 2016

Grant Amount: $59,700

Grant Type: academic

Motivated by the broad trends of rising inequality and falling interest rates since the 1980s, the authors will build a macroeconomic model to show how much higher income inequality has reduced the natural rate of interest through increased overall saving. The potential consequences of rising inequality for the level of aggregate economic activity is an active research area and one that we have funded in the past. This project will complement previous grants and push the research frontier by uncovering key insights about the link between inequality and the natural interest rate. The research is highly relevant to the active debates over secular stagnation and puts the researchers’ bargaining-power framework (as opposed to more technological changes such as declining investment costs) at the center of their evaluation of the increase in U.S. income inequality.

Experts

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Amy Claessens

University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Sydnee Caldwell

University of California, Berkeley

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Kevin Rinz

Washington Center for Equitable Growth

Senior Fellow and Research Advisor

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Giovanni Righi

University of California, Los Angeles

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Jon Steinsson

University of California, Berkeley

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