Grant Category

Macroeconomics and Inequality

What are the implications of inequality on the long-term stability of our economy and its growth potential?

What are the implications of inequality on the long-term stability of our economy and its growth potential?

A larger share of U.S. national income has been flowing to the individuals at the top of the income and wealth ladder. These individuals are less likely to spend and more likely to save their money than those with lower income. There is evidence that growing income inequality may be contributing to the so-called secular stagnation of macroeconomic growth.

Growing income inequality likely bears on macroeconomic performance through other channels as well. The lower real interest rates that have resulted from higher global saving will limit the ability of conventional monetary policy to stabilize the economy in the next economic downturn. Growing inequality has also contributed to a growing sense that the economy isn’t working for most families, fueling both distrust in institutions and greater political polarization.

We need to better understand the implications of inequality on the long-term stability of our economy and its growth potential. The large and sustained rise in inequality across income and wealth groups, as well as the disparate performance of different geographies and demographic groups, make understanding how these trends could exacerbate economic instability and reduce economic growth a pressing national concern.

  • The effects of monetary policy
  • The effects of fiscal policy
  • The effects of the tax and transfer system
  • Political economy

Explore the Grants We've Awarded

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Quantifying the effects of energy transitions on the U.S. labor market and implications for the Inflation Reduction Act

Grant Year: 2025

Grant Amount: $75,000

Grant Type: academic

Due to a lack of longitudinal, nationwide labor market data, evaluations of the impacts of energy communities remain unexplored. The authors propose a quasi-experimental approach using the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau to evaluate labor market outcomes in energy communities as defined by the Inflation Reduction Act. The authors will use the definition of an energy community to define an area “treated” by the law and then estimate labor market outcomes in these treated areas versus untreated areas. Based on this treatment definition, they will use a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the impact of the IRA tax credits to explore the heterogeneous impacts across worker demographic characteristics, geographic factors, and structural factors, such as local economies and energy mixes.

How Do Place-Based Policies Affect People? Lessons and Implications for the Inflation Reduction Act

Grant Year: 2025

Grant Amount: $75,000

Grant Type: academic

This project will use newly linked administrative microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau to provide the first comprehensive descriptive portrait of “energy communities,” evaluating whether the Inflation Reduction Act’s geographic targeting aligns with its stated equity goals. The authors will then examine historical patterns of firm entry and exit in these regions and track employment and earnings outcomes for affected workers. The analysis asks whether displaced fossil fuel workers or other local residents benefit when new firms enter—or whether these opportunities disproportionately go to in-migrants. These findings are poised to offer critical insights into the distributional impacts of place-based policy and establish an empirical foundation for evaluating the equity and effectiveness of clean energy investments.

The Economic Effects of Clean Energy Manufacturing Provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act: Evidence from the Solar Supply Chain

Grant Year: 2025

Grant Amount: $67,346

Grant Type: academic

This project will investigate how the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (45X MPTC) and the Advanced Energy Project Investment Tax Credit (48C ITC) affect manufacturing activity throughout the solar photovoltaic supply chain, with a focus on its impacts in the United States. The central research questions are: How do the Inflation Reduction Act’s domestic manufacturing and content-based tax credits affect investment, production, and employment across different stages of the solar manufacturing supply chain? How do these effects propagate downstream to influence solar technology adoption and environmental outcomes? The author will do a reduced form analysis of manufacturing investment and output, develop a structural model of the global solar photovoltaic supply chain, and conduct simulations using the structural model. By focusing on the entire supply chain, from polysilicon and wafers to cells and modules, this research aims to provide the first comprehensive assessment of the Inflation Reduction Act’s economic and environmental implications in the solar industry.

IRA Subsides for EVs, Import Tariffs, and Domestic Industry

Grant Year: 2025

Grant Amount: $70,000

Grant Type: academic

This study seeks to compare the Inflation Reduction Act and tariff approaches by quantifying how each policy affects the new vehicle market and domestic manufacturing activity. The authors will evaluate how these policies affect purchase decisions and welfare of different consumer groups (by income, geography, and other demographics), as well as the production and profits of different manufacturer groups (based in the United States versus abroad) and the incentives each policy creates to expand U.S. industrial capacity. The authors will use an existing model of the electric vehicle market to examine the impact of switching from IRA subsidies to tariffs on EV prices, the impact of switching from IRA subsidies to tariffs on short-run domestic production and profits, and the impact of IRA subsidies on long-run investments in capacity and production.

Supply Chain Resilience and Economic Growth: Evidence from Global Shipping Disruptions

Grant Year: 2025

Grant Amount: $30,000

Grant Type: academic

This project aims to provide new causal evidence on the economic implications of supply chain disruptions. The identification strategy leverages the fact that global supply chains rely on maritime trade, which depends on a few critical choke points. The author will identify disruptive incidents, which are plausibly exogenous to the U.S. economy, and then isolate the market impact of the disruption using high-frequency financial data. The author will then use these shipping cost surprises as an instrument in a structural VAR model of the U.S. economy to identify a structural supply chain shock.

Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Implications of Wage Rigidity

Grant Year: 2023

Grant Amount: $70,000

Grant Type: academic

This project will unpack the effect of inflation on employment and wages during the current inflationary episode in the United States. They plan to establish stylized empirical facts related to heterogeneity in wage rigidity and the labor market effects of inflation. They will use Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data to study how wage rigidities vary with inflation. The team’s second goal is an extension of an existing theoretical model of the labor market by adding job-to-job mobility, wage renegotiation costs, and multiworker firms to better capture firms’ labor market power.

Experts

Scholar

Christina Patterson

University of Chicago

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Grantee

Eva Lyubich

University of California, Berkeley

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Grantee

Laura Dague

Texas A&M University

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Randy Albelda

University of Massachusetts, Boston

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Grantee

Kanika Arora

University of Iowa

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