Competitive Edge: Five building blocks for antitrust success: the forthcoming FTC competition report

Antitrust and competition issues are receiving renewed interest, and for good reason. So far, the discussion has occurred at a high level of generality. To address important specific antitrust enforcement and competition issues, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth has launched this blog, which we call “Competitive Edge.” This series features leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of topics: potential areas for antitrust enforcement, concerns about existing doctrine, practical realities enforcers face, proposals for reform, and broader policies to promote competition. Jonathan Sallet has authored this month’s contribution.

The octopus image, above, updates an iconic editorial cartoon first published in 1904 in the magazine Puck to portray the Standard Oil monopoly. Please note the harpoon. Our goal for Competitive Edge is to promote the development of sharp and effective tools to increase competition in the United States economy.


Jonathan Sallet

Between September 2018 and June 2019, the Federal Trade Commission conducted a series of public hearings to study the landscape of competition and consumer protection. The next step—and the crucial one—is for the FTC to integrate the lessons learned from those proceedings into its day-to-day work.

Here are five building blocks for successful antitrust enforcement that the FTC should embrace in order to, as its Chairman Joseph Simons said (quoting his predecessor Bob Pitofsky), “restore the tradition of linking law enforcement with a continuing review of economic conditions to ensure that the laws make sense in light of contemporary competitive conditions.”1

Antitrust enforcers should pay attention to growing market concentration

On the first day of the hearings, Jonathan Baker, a law professor at American University’s Washington School of Law and author of the new, indispensable book The Antitrust Paradigm, laid out nine reasons to conclude that “market power is substantial and has been growing.”2 Baker emphasized that the growth of oligopolies in markets that include airlines, brewing, and hospitals are all outcomes that he said cannot be explained simply by growth in scale economies.3

Economists Joshua Wright at George Mason University’s Antonin Scalia School of Law and Steven Berry at Yale University took different views. Wright said that his review of the evidence of market concentration led to the conclusion that “we do not know much that is relevant to formation of antitrust policy” and emphasized that he would not equate market concentration with the presence or absence of competition.4 Berry cautioned against overreliance on market concentration as the explanation of the increase in corporate profits.5

But Berry also emphasized that in light of the evidence of higher markups, “[w]e cannot just wave our hands and say it is all fine.”6 Rather, he said that “sophisticated context-sensitive antitrust policy is clearly important.”

What to do in the face of these competing viewpoints? In her testimony that same day, economist Fiona Scott Morton at the Yale University School of Management emphasized that uncertainty does not justify antitrust inaction. Rather, she said that the evidence of growing market power suggests that underenforcement is today a greater risk than overenforcement.7

Underenforcement can lead, of course, to familiar kinds of competitive harm, such as higher prices and reduced innovation. But there is more. The United States is in its fifth decade of increasing income inequality—on September 26, 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau released figures showing that income inequality had reached its highest level in more than 50 years of measurement. Baker and Steven Salop at Georgetown Law opined that “[m]arket power contributes to growing inequality.”

Scott Morton’s point is fundamental. Antitrust is law enforcement, and law enforcement rests on case-specific evidence. But larger trends should surely impact the prioritization of antitrust resources and the questions that antitrust enforcers ask. Indeed, if the right investigations are not opened and the right questions are not asked, then we may never know whether a problem ever existed.

Vertical merger transactions are a good example. As Salop explained at the hearings, vertical mergers may look benign in a world of unconcentrated upstream and downstream markets, where customers at both levels face a plethora of competitive alternatives, but such transactions require much greater scrutiny when a new vertical relationship is created in a world of oligopolies. 8 That’s because the existence of oligopolies make it more likely that an input supplier can harm some of its customers in order to aid its downstream affiliate and harm consumers as a result. Salop argued that anticompetitive presumptions should apply to vertical mergers in some circumstances.

Daniel O’Brien, former deputy director of the FTC’s Bureau of Economics and now executive vice president at the consultancy firm Compass Lexecon, didn’t see it the same way. He told the commission that he did not contend there could never be input foreclosure, but contended that mergers of companies offering complementary products would normally be procompetitive.9 An example of complementary products would be razors and razor blades—if you use one, you’re more likely to use the other. O’Brien also said that procompetitive presumptions should apply to some vertical mergers.

In my view, the discussion of vertical mergers illuminates why antitrust enforcement should recognize the changing nature of markets and, in particular, the manner in which the existence of oligopolies increases the need to consider theories of harm when considering vertical arrangements. Understanding broad changes in the U.S. economy helps antitrust agencies formulate theories of harm, focus their economic analysis, and consider, early on in an investigation, what facts will likely be most important. The forthcoming FTC competition report should consider how best to recognize the implications of these broad economic trends.

Business models are evolving, which can change the terms of competition

Two-sided business models aren’t new. Think of the coffee house in London in the early 1700s that, profiting from the aggregation of ship owners and the insurance brokers, morphed into Lloyd’s of London. But today, multisided business models intersect with other economic trends that include network effects, the aggregation of data, and vertical integration. That’s a reason why merger enforcement should look more closely at the acquisition of potential or nascent competitors.

If Microsoft Corp. in the early 1990s had tried to buy the then-independent web browser company Netscape in order to protect its monopoly in personal computer operating systems, would enforcers have then understood the competitive implications of blunting the ability of new browser rivals to attack the market for PC operating systems? Such potential or nascent competition is particularly important in winner-take-all markets that often (and without any necessary trace of anticompetitive conduct) tip toward single-firm dominance—an outcome that emphasizes competition for the market, not just competition for greater share within a market. When dominance becomes embedded, markets are much less likely to self-correct.

Also, antitrust enforcement should fight any extension of the U.S. Supreme Court opinion in Ohio vs American Express Co. (wrongly decided in my view) to multisided business models generally. Any expansion of American Express would leave consumers and competitors vulnerable to a range of anticompetitive actions that are justified by a company sharing its increased profits with one out-of-market group of users at the expense of others.

The American Express decision paired this error with another one—the suggestion that direct evidence of harm to competition isn’t enough in an vertical case without the separate presentation of a properly defined antitrust market. The forthcoming FTC competition report could usefully untangle these knots by explaining how to identify the narrow slice of multisided markets actually at issue in American Express, and then offering thoughts on how to identify competitive harm in vertical cases generally.

Antitrust enforcement protects competition, not just consumers who buy things

Multiple speakers explained that antitrust protects the competitive process, not just direct purchasers or final consumers. Carl Shapiro, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, proposed in the hearings that a business practice be judged to be anticompetitive if it harms trading parties on the other side of the market as a result of disrupting the competitive process.10 For Shapiro, this approach would give structure to antitrust law and economics in a world in which the dangers of horizontal agreements, exclusionary conduct, and anticompetitive horizontal and vertical mergers have all grown.11

Think about the potential impact on workers from the market power of employers. University of Pennsylvania economist Ioana Marinescu proposed in her work, including with UPenn Law School professor Herbert Hovenkamp, that when merging employers in the same place hire workers with the same kinds of qualifications to do the same kind of job, traditional antitrust principles appropriately ask whether the workers would be harmed by a labor monopsony.

The extent to which labor monopsonies are generally the cause of lower wages for workers was hotly debated. Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Nancy Rose, for example, questioned whether market concentration is generally the cause of low wages. At the same time, she recommended the study by Elena Prager at Northwestern University and Matt Schmitt at the University of California, Los Angles of hospital merger effects on labor as the type of study that can shed light on this question. And enforcement activity has recognized circumstances, concerning nurses and Silicon Valley workers for example, in which antitrust injury has been inflicted upon employees.

That recognition is the basis, for example, for the joint 2016 Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission policy treating as illegal “no poach” agreements among companies not to hire each other’s workers. Similarly, in United States v. Anthem, Inc., the Department of Justice challenged a healthcare merger asserting, in part, that the increased buyer power of the new firm would “enhance Anthem’s leverage,” which would likely reduce the rates that hospitals and physicians would be able to earn.

So, there appears to be a broad consensus that merging employers could hold market power over labor and that where that would occur, the transaction should be examined using well-established antitrust principles.

Indeed, monopsony, as a concept generally, deserves more attention. Monopsony is monopoly turned upside down—with market power being directed by a buyer at a seller to force input prices artificially lower than they would be in a competitive market. As the Supreme Court said a long time ago, antitrust enforcement is not just about protecting consumers from rising prices but also about guarding more broadly against anticompetitive disruption of competitive pricing (and nonpricing terms).12 That understanding reaches monopsonies, too.

Another example of antitrust enforcement ensuring competition arises when harm is to a business, not directly to a consumer. For example, the FTC successfully blocked the proposed Staples-Office Depot merger that would have harmed business customers. The FTC should not narrow its search for competitive harm to consumers only.

Modern economic analysis is up to the challenge

Of course, knowing more is always better than knowing less. But law enforcement agencies need to make the best judgements they can because justice delayed is justice denied. So, it’s important to recognize that modern economics offers analysis fit for these times. As Scott Morton said at the FTC hearings, “I think we have the tools. I do not think we need to spend ten years developing the tools.”13

Indeed, in 2018, Scott Morton wrote, along with Jonathan Baker and me in the Yale Law Journal, that in the aftermath of the Chicago School critique of antitrust enforcement, the economics profession has developed “many tools that identify and measure anticompetitive conduct.” Economics can now explain why it does not make sense to presume that markets will self-correct from monopoly or collusion, exclusionary vertical conduct cannot be anticompetitive because there is only a single monopoly profit, or most mergers in concentrated markets are efficient and therefore procompetitive. The FTC hearings featured important perspectives on the best way that antitrust agencies can apply today’s economic learnings in a manner that ensures that antitrust fully recognizes today’s competitive conditions.

Congress gave the FTC broader enforcement tools than just the Sherman and Clayton Acts

An important aspect of Federal Trade Commission authority is the scope of Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914, which establishes the agency’s power to halt “unfair methods of competition.” I suggested at one hearing that Section 5 should be re-examined and applied to reach anticompetitive harms beyond the reach of the Sherman Act. This might include unilateral conduct that, as Steven Salop has written, “leads to achievement, maintenance, or enhancement of market power that likely harms consumers on balance.”

In its administrative complaint filed against Intel Corp., for example, the FTC alleged that Intel’s conduct constituted a “stand-alone” violation of Section 5 (that is, without reference to the Sherman Act). UPenn’s Hovenkamp has suggested that the FTC consider the use of Section 5 to attack monopoly in its incipiency, reach collusion-like activity (including through the use of certain most-favored nation clauses), and halt anticompetitive behavior outside a firm’s primary market, where these is no actionable threat of achieving market power in that other market.

So, for example, the FTC commissioners could consider whether input foreclosure is harmful to competition when conducted by an integrated firm with market power in a concentrated market for the production of a critical input where its upstream affiliate (the supplier of that input) is a substantial supplier of that input to downstream rivals.

After all, the FTC was given its authority in 1914 under the Federal Trade Commission Act precisely because Congress decided that the Sherman Act didn’t go far enough. Similarly, although the FTC’s Section 5 prohibition of “unfair and deceptive acts and practices” has traditionally been applied to consumer protection issues that are separate from competition questions, the agency should be alert to circumstances in which anticompetitive conduct is also unfair and deceptive. Imagine false statements by a seller to consumers that effectively prevent rivals from competing effectively to the detriment of those consumers.

Conclusion

These five lessons should inform the full spectrum of the FTC’s competition work, from framing the issues to be examined in a merger or conduct investigation to creation of remedies, the use of rulemaking authority, and competition advocacy. These five lessons also should apply to litigation, the ultimate test for antitrust enforcement. And they should also help generalist judges understand what antitrust law and economics have already established.

As the Washington Center for Equitable Growth’s Director of Markets and Competition Policy Michael Kades explains, government antitrust enforcement is hampered when courts require antitrust enforcers to spend their time and resources proving water makes things wet rather than bringing cases on behalf of consumers.

This is the moment when the FTC can again demonstrate the intellectual curiosity that was the basis for its creation—as an expert agency that rigorously analyzes markets and competition. The FTC’s competition hearings provide both a map for antitrust enforcement and a benchmark against which to measure future administrative and judicial decisions. Publication of a strong, pro-enforcement report and the integration of its learnings into the day-to-day work of the FTC will be an important and necessary step in the right direction.

Jonathan Sallet is a senior fellow at the Benton Institute for Broadband & Society. I am appreciative to Jonathan Baker, Michael Kades, Steven Salop, Carl Shapiro, and Fiona Scott Morton for their review of this essay in draft form.

Competitive Edge: Principles and presumptions for U.S. vertical merger enforcement policy

Antitrust and competition issues are receiving renewed interest, and for good reason. So far, the discussion has occurred at a high level of generality. To address important specific antitrust enforcement and competition issues, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth has launched this blog, which we call “Competitive Edge.” This series features leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of topics: potential areas for antitrust enforcement, concerns about existing doctrine, practical realities enforcers face, proposals for reform, and broader policies to promote competition. Jonathan B. Baker, Nancy L. Rose, Steven C. Salop, and Fiona Scott Morton have authored this month’s contribution.

The octopus image, above, updates an iconic editorial cartoon first published in 1904 in the magazine Puck to portray the Standard Oil monopoly. Please note the harpoon. Our goal for Competitive Edge is to promote the development of sharp and effective tools to increase competition in the United States economy.


Jonathan B. Baker Nancy L. Rose Steven C. Salop Fiona Scott Morton

Most discussions of U.S. merger policy focus on horizontal mergers. These are transactions that combine firms at the same level of production, such as would have occurred in the wireless phone telecommunications sector when AT&T Inc. attempted to acquire T-Mobile US, Inc. By contrast, vertical mergers combine firms at different levels of production, such as when AT&T acquired Time Warner in 2018. Vertical merger analysis also applies to the combination of firms producing complementary products, such as when Ticketmaster Entertainment LLC acquired the live events promotion company LiveNation.

U.S. antitrust laws cover vertical mergers, and the Federal Trade Commission and the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice investigate them. Until the recent AT&T/Time Warner case, however, the agencies had not litigated a vertical merger in court for 40 years. There are only about two vertical merger enforcement actions per year across the two agencies. These are seldom resolved with divestitures or merger abandonments, but rather are routinely settled with consent decrees that regulate behavior.

There seems to be consensus that the DOJ’s 1984 Vertical Merger Guidelines, now 35 years old, reflect neither modern theoretical and empirical economic analysis nor current agency enforcement policy. There also is little dispute that antitrust enforcement should be based on rigorous economic analysis. Yet widely divergent views of preferred enforcement policies were expressed by the FTC’s commissioners when resolving office supply company Staples, Inc.’s acquisition of Essendant and Fresenius Medical Care AG’s acquisition of NxStage, by the various amicus briefs filed in connection with the appellate review of the Justice Department’s unsuccessful challenge to AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner (here, here, and here), by Assistant Attorney General Makan Delrahim, by the participants the FTC’s competition policy hearing on vertical mergers, and by two of us (here, here, and here).

This broad range of views suggests the difficulty that the two federal antitrust enforcement agencies will face in formulating new vertical merger guidelines. The D.C. Circuit’s decision in United States v. AT&T offered some guidance by applying the same legal standards for vertical mergers as are applied to horizontal mergers, but the court left substantial gaps that the agencies will need to fill.

Based on our review of the economic literature on vertical integration and our experience analyzing vertical mergers, we are concerned that there is too little vertical merger enforcement. Recent empirical studies have identified a number of cases in which vertical mergers have led to higher prices. And a recent private antitrust case successfully attacked a merger that was both vertical and horizontal and had been cleared by the Justice Department in 2012 with no remedy.

We recommend an approach to reduce false negatives, which erroneously allow mergers that harm competition, while keeping low the risk of false positives, which erroneously condemn mergers that are pro-competitive. Our analysis focuses on oligopoly markets where vertical mergers are most likely to raise concerns and most likely to be subject to agency investigation and enforcement. Oligopoly markets are those with a small number of competitors and barriers to entry, where the firms take rivals’ responses into account when making market decisions. These include digital markets where production economies of scale and network effects can create oligopoly structures and entry barriers, leading to the exercise of market power and raising competitive concerns with vertical mergers.

We recommend that the two antitrust agencies adopt the following five principles to guide vertical merger enforcement, which we discuss in more detail in our longer article.

  • The agencies should consider and investigate the full range of potential anti-competitive harms when evaluating vertical mergers.
  • The agencies should decline to presume that vertical mergers benefit competition on balance in the oligopoly markets that typically prompt agency review, and not set a higher evidentiary standard based on such a presumption.
  • The agencies should evaluate claimed efficiencies resulting from vertical mergers as carefully and critically as they evaluate claimed efficiencies resulting from horizontal mergers, and should require the merging parties to show that the efficiencies are verifiable, merger-specific, and sufficient to reverse the potential anti-competitive effects.
  • The agencies should decline to adopt a safe harbor for vertical mergers, even if rebuttable, except perhaps when both firms compete in unconcentrated markets.
  • The agencies also should consider adopting presumptions (rebuttable) that a vertical merger harms competition when certain factual predicates are satisfied.

We set out several possible presumptions here that could be invoked when at least one of the markets is concentrated. These identify conditions under which economic analysis suggests that the merger creates the greatest likelihood of anti-competitive effects. By successfully establishing a presumption, the plaintiff would satisfy its prima facie case, thereby shifting the burden of production to the merging firms. These presumptions are:

  • Input foreclosure presumption. One concern is that a vertical merger will harm competition in the downstream market if the upstream merging firm in a concentrated market is a substantial supplier of a critical input to the competitors of the other merging firm, and a hypothetical decision to stop dealing with those downstream competitors would lead to substantial diversion of business to the downstream merging firm. This diversion might be increased if other upstream suppliers raise their prices in response. In this situation, a vertical merger can raise the costs of the unintegrated rivals and permit the merged firm to exercise market power in the downstream market.
  • Customer foreclosure presumption. A mirror effect can occur that harms competition in the upstream market if the downstream merging firm is a substantial purchaser of the input produced in a concentrated upstream market, and a decision to stop dealing with the competitors of the upstream merging firms would lead to the exit, marginalization, or significantly higher variable costs of one or more of those competitors by diverting a substantial amount of business away from them. In this situation, a vertical merger can reduce competition in the upstream market and permit the merged firm to exercise market power. It also can lead to an increased likelihood of input foreclosure.
  • Elimination of potential entry presumption. Competition also may be harmed if either or both of the merging firms has a substantial probability of entering into the other firm’s concentrated market absent the merger. In this situation, the merger would eliminate the possibility that entry—or the fear of that entry, if the incumbent firm charges excessive prices—would make the market more competitive.
  • Disruptive or maverick seller presumption. One seller can constrain coordination in its concentrated market if it has different pricing incentives from the other firms. A vertical merger that eliminates a downstream firm that has prevented or substantially constrained coordination in the upstream market can harm competition if the upstream market is concentrated and the upstream firm supplies the maverick’s competitors. In this situation, the constraining influence of the disruptive or maverick firm could be eliminated, leading to higher market prices.
  • Disruptive or maverick buyer presumption. This presumption would be invoked if the downstream merging firm purchases the product sold by the other merging firm or its competitors—and, by its conduct, that firm has prevented or substantially constrained coordination in the sale of that product by the other merging firm and its competitors in a concentrated input market. In this situation, the constraining influence of the disruptive or maverick firm could be eliminated, leading to higher market prices.
  • Evasion of regulation presumption. If the downstream firm’s maximum price is regulated, competition nonetheless may be harmed from a vertical merger. This can occur, for example, if the regulation permits the downstream firm to raise its price in response to cost increases. The regulated downstream firm could raise the price of the input supplied to it by its upstream merger partner, increasing upstream profits and downstream prices. Evasion of regulation could also occur if the merger involves firms that sell complementary products. The newly merged firm could raise the price of the bundle and attribute the price increase to the unregulated product.
  • Dominant platform presumption. Competition may be harmed if a dominant platform company acquires a firm with a substantial probability of entering in competition with it absent the merger, or if that dominant platform company acquires a competitor in an adjacent market. Rivals in vertically adjacent or complementary product markets are often potential entrants, so this presumption reaches nascent threats to competition created by eliminating the potential entrants through the merger. This presumption can be understood as an application of the elimination of potential entry presumption and an input or customer foreclosure presumption in a setting where network effects and economies of scale would be expected to raise barriers to entry, and thus endow a dominant platform with substantial market power.

If the two antitrust enforcement agencies adopt any or all of the presumptions, then they should allow them to be rebutted by evidence showing that anti-competitive effects are unlikely. Hence none of the presumptions would create a per se prohibition of vertical mergers. The agencies also should continue to investigate vertical mergers that raise competitive concerns even if these presumptions are not applied. These presumptions set out conditions where concerns are greatest. These are not the only conditions where there are potential concerns.

Vertical mergers can substantially harm competition. Adopting these five principles will anchor effective vertical merger enforcement by reducing false negatives while keeping false positives low. We hope the agencies will follow our recommendations. These recommendations also could be useful to the courts, or if the Congress decides to amend Section 7 of the Clayton Antitrust Act.

The authors are: Jonathan Baker (research professor of law, American University Washington College of Law; chief economist, Federal Communications Commission, 2009–2011; director, Bureau of Economics, Federal Trade Commission, 1995–1998); Nancy L. Rose (Charles P. Kindleberger Professor of applied economics and department head, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; deputy assistant attorney general for Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Justice, 2014–2016); Steven C. Salop (professor of economics and law, Georgetown University Law Center); and Fiona Scott Morton (Theodore Nierenberg Professor of economics at the Yale School of Management; deputy assistant attorney general for Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Justice, 2011–2012). The issues discussed in this column are examined in more detail in the authors’ longer article that will be published this summer in Antitrust magazine.

Competitive Edge: Crafting a monopolization law for our time

Antitrust and competition issues are receiving renewed interest, and for good reason. So far, the discussion has occurred at a high level of generality. To address important specific antitrust enforcement and competition issues, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth has launched this blog, which we call “Competitive Edge.” This series features leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of topics: potential areas for antitrust enforcement, concerns about existing doctrine, practical realities enforcers face, proposals for reform, and broader policies to promote competition. Andrew I. Gavil has authored this month’s contribution.

The octopus image, above, updates an iconic editorial cartoon first published in 1904 in the magazine Puck to portray the Standard Oil monopoly. Please note the harpoon. Our goal for Competitive Edge is to promote the development of sharp and effective tools to increase competition in the United States economy.


Andrew I. Gavil

Antitrust policy is not a typical candidate for vibrant public debate, but these are not typical times. Concerns about rising corporate concentration, an increased incidence of market power in some sectors of the U.S. economy, and evidence of growing wealth and income inequality are the triggers for this debate—one that pits advocates of radical reforms against defenders of the status quo.

Much of the debate is focused on the effectiveness of Section 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, the first federal law to outlaw monopolistic business practices by single, powerful firms. As it has been interpreted by the Supreme Court over many decades, however, Section 2 has been largely circumscribed to the point where major government prosecutions are rare and few private challenges succeed.

If Section 2 is to be an effective tool for policing and deterring anti-competitive conduct in today’s economy, then it will need to be adjusted for the needs of our time. But first it is important to understand how Section 2 became so limited in scope, beginning with the origins of the Sherman Act.

The legal genesis of one of the most permissive anti-monopolization laws in the world

Choosing the language of the Sherman Act, the Congress of 1890 turned to common law, which had long prohibited “unreasonable restraints of trade” and various forms of monopolizing conduct. That Congress was concerned about the collusive and exclusionary practices of the corporate behemoths of the day, the trusts such as Standard Oil. The result was a statute that included prohibitions of concerted action (Section 1), as well as monopolization, attempts to monopolize, and conspiracy to monopolize (Section 2).

In one of its earliest interpretations of the Sherman Act’s critical language, the Supreme Court concluded in Standard Oil Company of New Jersey v. United States (1911) that both Sections 1 and 2 ought to be guided by a “standard of reason.” The Court would later also observe that the intent of the Congress was not to codify the specific content of the common law as it existed in 1890, but rather to embrace its process so the law could evolve and adapt over time. As the Court put it, with specific reference to Section 1’s “restraint of trade,” the Sherman Act “invokes the common law itself, and not merely the static content that the common law had assigned to the term in 1890.” Congress, the Supreme Court said, “expected the courts to give shape to the statute’s broad mandate by drawing on common-law tradition.” In the wake of this ruling, federal courts, guided by public and private litigants, were assigned the role of defining the content of the Sherman Act’s prohibitions.

This approach to Section 1 has been lauded as critical to its success and durability. It has permitted the two federal antitrust agencies—the Federal Trade Commission and the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice—and the courts to reshape the standards of pleading, production, and proof in antitrust cases over time to reflect new economic learning, new industry conditions, and new business models and practices. Although some critics view the current state of the law as too permissive, they would, in part, invoke that same flexibility to alter course and enhance its prohibitions.

Sections 1 and 2 share common roots in the common law, but in contrast to Section 1’s evolution over time, Section 2’s prohibitions have become locked in time, captives of the past.

That past has been shaped in large part by the decisions of two legendary jurists, Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes and Judge Learned Hand, and two decisions they authored: Swift & Co. v. United States (1905) and United States v. Aluminum Co. of America (1945), respectively. These two cases, and others that followed, committed Section 2 to an approach that focuses almost obsessively on very high market-share benchmarks as determinants of a firm’s power, instead of more direct measures—creating effective safe harbors and leaving gaps in U.S. law that have likely impeded the ability of Section 2 to evolve with economic learning and changes to the U.S. economy.

In Swift, Justice Holmes offered a brief but enduring interpretation of Section 2’s “attempt to monopolize” offense. Drawing on the Sherman Act’s use of common law concepts and its inclusion of a criminal prohibition, his expertise as a student of the common law, and an earlier non-antitrust criminal law decision he had authored while on the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts, Holmes declared that to establish an “attempt” offense under Section 2, the government would have to prove a “dangerous probability of success,” meaning a dangerous probability of achieving monopoly.

The full import of that holding was not realized until the decision in Aluminum Co. of America (Alcoa), where, sitting as the Supreme Court, the Second Circuit established the now-familiar and durable “power + bad conduct” framework for cases alleging monopolization, which requires proof of both monopoly power and exclusionary conduct. To define “monopoly power,” Judge Hand looked back at previous decisions of the Court to formulate his influential market-share benchmarks for identifying monopolies: 90 percent (“enough to constitute a monopoly”); 60 percent to 64 percent (“doubtful”); 33 percent (“certainly…not”). Markets, he said, would thereafter have to be “defined,” as was the case in Alcoa, in order to facilitate such market-share calculations, a conclusion that was reinforced a decade later by the Court’s United States v. E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company decision (1956), which implied that 75 percent would also be enough to constitute a monopoly.

Thus was born one of the most permissive anti-monopolization laws in the world. Although courts look to a number of factors in assessing a firm’s power, unless it possesses more than roughly 70 percent of a defined relevant market, then it is unlikely to run afoul of Section 2’s prohibition of monopolization if it acts unilaterally—regardless of its intent or the effects of its conduct. And if a firm with, say, 50 percent of a market engages in similarly unilateral and unjustifiable exclusionary conduct, it, too, is likely to escape condemnation, provided there is no “dangerous probability” that its conduct will raise its market share to “monopolistic” levels. That will be true even if the conduct blunts a competitive challenge and thereby helps it to entrench any market power it already possesses—and even if the anti-competitive effect of the conduct satisfies Section 1’s standard for constituting an “unreasonable restraint of trade.”

Fear of “false positives” led the Supreme Court to further constrain Section 2

The Court acknowledged and endorsed this “gap” between Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act in its 1984 Copperweld Corporation v. Independence Tube Corporation decision. In its view, the Sherman Act’s framers intended it by design, so unilateral conduct would be treated more permissively than the concerted conduct prohibited by Section 1, for fear of discouraging aggressive but competitive conduct by single firms. But that proposition was wholly at odds with Standard Oil’s view that Sections 1 and 2 were intended to be complementary, leaving no gap at all.

Copperweld more so reflected the 1980s Supreme Court’s perception that prior decisions of the Court had established standards of conduct that were too strict, as well as its fear of false positives, than anything intended by the 1890 Congress. Nevertheless, this view of Section 2 as it applies to the attempt-to-monopolize offense was cemented into contemporary law by the Supreme Court in Spectrum Sports, Inc. v. McQuillan (1993), where, citing Swift and Copperweld, the Court held that “the plaintiff charging attempted monopolization must prove dangerous probability of actual monopolization, which has generally required a definition of the relevant market and examination of market power.”

This preference for circumstantial evidence was arguably extended even further by the Supreme Court’s recent 2018 decision in State of Ohio v. American Express, which appeared to conclude in a controversial footnote that defining a relevant market and inferring market power are necessary prerequisites to the assessment of the competitive impact of all “vertical” conduct, even under Section 1, regardless of the availability of more direct evidence that it has had an adverse impact on competition.

The Alcoa decision also had endorsed some of the most important and equally durable propositions about Section 2—that “monopoly” alone is not an offense of Section 2 and that to “monopolize” also requires exclusionary conduct, which must be distinguished from “superior skill, foresight and industry.” Judge Hand proclaimed in that ruling that “[t]he successful competitor, having been urged to compete, must not be turned upon when he wins.” But Hand also famously observed that “possession of unchallenged power deadens initiative, discourages thrift and depresses energy; that immunity from competition is a narcotic, and rivalry a stimulant, to industrial progress.”

The Court in Alcoa expressed the view that it might be necessary to tolerate monopoly occasionally, but that was not to say it was desirable. Although Judge Hand’s application of these principles to the facts of Alcoa has been criticized and might not be followed today, these core principles have largely proved enduring and have guided the law of monopolization for more than seven decades in cases such as Aspen Skiing Company v. Aspen Highlands Skiing Corporation (1985) and United States v. Microsoft Corporation (2001).

More recent pronouncements from the Supreme Court addressing exclusionary conduct, however, embrace a different and far more cautious narrative. Like Copperweld, Brooke Group Ltd. v. Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corporation (1993) and Verizon Communications, Inc. v. Law Offices of Curtis V. Trinko, LLP (2004) have emphasized concern for false positives and fear that liability standards that are too easy to satisfy will inhibit competition, especially innovation, by both dominant incumbents and rivals alike. And, in contrast to Alcoa, the Court in Trinko reasoned that “the opportunity to charge monopoly prices—at least for a short period—is what attracts ‘business acumen’ in the first place.” This supposition about monopoly transforms Alcoa’s grudging acceptance into a near embrace and ignores that the dream of monopoly is hardly the motivation that drives most firms to compete. Profits, maybe, but true “monopoly prices?” The embedded assumptions in such cases, layered onto the highly formalistic framework established by Swift and Alcoa, have no doubt limited the reach of Section 2.

Time to reinterpret exclusionary conduct to account for the challenges of the 21st century U.S. economy

Fortunately, our understanding of “exclusionary” conduct has advanced, as has our understanding of market power. Exclusionary conduct cases such as Microsoft have provided a structured, burden-shifting framework for evaluating claims of exclusionary conduct within the reasonableness framework first identified by Standard Oil. In addition, the federal government’s Horizontal Merger Guidelines aptly identify the focus of most of modern competition law when they state that their “unifying theme” is that “mergers should not be permitted to create, enhance, or entrench market power or to facilitate its exercise.”

A modern approach to unilateral conduct could draw upon these advances. It might start by revisiting and refreshing the meaning of the common law terminology of Section 2. Such a modern framework could:

  • Embrace today’s structured approach to the rule of reason, as did the Court in Microsoft
  • Fully integrate a more sophisticated understanding of exclusionary conduct, market power, and anti-competitive effects.

Such an approach would prohibit exclusionary conduct (unilateral or concerted) that significantly contributes to the creation, entrenchment, or enhancement of market power, allowing for methods of proving power through alternatives to defining markets and calculating market shares.

This more contemporary approach would be more consonant with trends in most other modern antitrust law. It would untether the law of exclusionary conduct from blind and formalistic reliance on market-share benchmarks, while also allowing for cognizable and verifiable efficiency justifications. In theory, Section 2’s common law origins should allow for this kind of evolution in the courts, but it might instead require legislative reform. In the end, under either approach, change would open up needed space for Section 2 to begin to evolve once again, as has Section 1, so it could adapt to the needs of our time.

Conclusion

In support of their current-day agendas, some of the most vocal advocates in today’s debates have turned to the past, invoking the words and ideas of former Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis, who championed progressive competition-law reforms in the early part of the 20th century, and former U.S. Court of Appeals Judge Robert H. Bork, one of the principal proponents of the Chicago School of Antitrust, who, in the late 1970s, influenced the modern shift toward a more economic approach to antitrust analysis, including a pronounced concern for false positives.

Although the collective wisdom of the past can surely inform today’s policy discussion, as smart as Brandeis and Bork were, they are best understood in the context of their own times, when they were responding to the issues and antitrust doctrine of their day. The economy of 2019 is not the economy of 1912 or 1978, and the antitrust doctrine of 2019 is not the same as that of 1912 or 1978.

To address the challenge of designing a monopolization law for our era, policymakers, advocates, and the courts will need to do more than selectively borrow from the ghosts of past antitrust debates to advance current-day agendas. What is required instead is the construction of a new and balanced consensus that can address the needs of this time.

—Andrew I. Gavil is a professor of law at Howard University School of Law. This posting is adapted from remarks delivered at the American Antitrust Institute’s Competition Roundtable, Challenging Monopolies in Court: Where Have We Been and Where Are We Going?, on March 14, 2019. The views expressed here are his own.

Competitive Edge: Revitalizing U.S. antitrust enforcement is not simply a contest between Brandeis and Bork—look first to Thurman Arnold

Antitrust and competition issues are receiving renewed interest, and for good reason. So far, the discussion has occurred at a high level of generality. To address important specific antitrust enforcement and competition issues, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth has launched this blog, which we call “Competitive Edge.” This series features leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of topics: potential areas for antitrust enforcement, concerns about existing doctrine, practical realities enforcers face, proposals for reform, and broader policies to promote competition. Jonathan B. Baker has authored this month’s contribution.

The octopus image, above, updates an iconic editorial cartoon first published in 1904 in the magazine Puck to portray the Standard Oil monopoly. Please note the harpoon. Our goal for Competitive Edge is to promote the development of sharp and effective tools to increase competition in the United States economy.


Jonathan B. Baker

Growing market power in the United States today puts a spotlight on our nation’s antitrust laws—the critical policy tool for restoring competition where it is lacking—from airlines and brewing to hospitals and dominant online platforms. But how can these laws be made more effective in this environment? The best guide from the past is Thurman Arnold, President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s longest-serving antitrust enforcer.

Arnold helped shape a political consensus for effective antitrust enforcement. Yet his singular contribution is often overlooked in the present-day debate over antitrust’s future. That achievement—the embrace of an antitrust enforcement playbook for supervising large firms that is competition-promoting and economic growth-enhancing—is endangered today.

To put Arnold’s achievement in perspective, let me briefly summarize more than a century of U.S. antitrust history. For decades after 1890—the year Congress enacted the Sherman Antitrust Act—antitrust laws were enforced inconsistently, and government policy toward large firms was the subject of bitter political debate. That changed after Arnold took the helm of the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division toward the end of the New Deal, and the so-called structural era of U.S. antitrust history began to take shape. The strong rules put in place beginning in the 1940s were relaxed in the late 1970s and 1980s, when antitrust doctrine entered its “Chicago school” era, named after the conservative proponents of this new approach who were associated with the University of Chicago.

To a considerable extent, the present-day debate over antitrust’s future is tied to competing accounts of what happened in the 1940s and 1980s. Progressives emphasize the ideas of antitrust advocate and Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, while conservatives highlight the views of Chicago alumnus, law professor, and appellate Judge Robert Bork. Both narratives neglect Arnold’s critical achievement and relevance for the current debate.

A prominent progressive account interprets the tough antitrust rules put in place during the structural era, including their hostility to all but the smallest mergers, as a triumph for Brandeis snatched away three decades later by Bork. In this story, economic policy in the 1940s represents what Progressive era reformers would call a victory of “the people” over “the interests.” In this view, after decades of bitter political debate over the role of large firms in the U.S. economy—what Brandeis termed a “curse of bigness”—was checked by antitrust and regulation.

This progressive narrative assimilates the development of modern antitrust doctrine into a broader chronicle of 20th century progressive political achievements that also features an expansion of political rights, greater inclusion of historically disadvantaged groups into mainstream political and economic life, and increased economic security for the less fortunate.

There is a basis for this narrative. Mid-20th century courts saw antitrust laws as advancing social and political goals—particularly Brandeisian concerns to protect democracy from the outsized influence of concentrated economic power and to ensure an opportunity for small businesses to compete—along with pursuing economic goals such as preventing firms with market power from exploiting consumers and other victims. Occasionally, monopolies were broken up. In much of the communications, energy, financial services, and transportation industries, direct economic regulation of big business, another of Brandeis’ enthusiasms, supplanted and supplemented antitrust law.

The competing conservative account interprets the 1940s very differently. The Chicago school maintains that populist antipathy to big business was taken too far, but thankfully corrected beginning in the late 1970s. In this view, Chicagoans such as Bork preserved economic vitality by freeing markets from excessive antitrust enforcement and economic regulation.

There is a basis for this narrative, too. In response to the Chicago critique, even proponents of robust antitrust enforcement such as Robert Pitofsky acknowledged that the mid-20th century antitrust rules had chilled the pursuit of efficiencies, and that some change of course would be beneficial.

Yet both the progressive and conservative accounts leave out an important factor. It is a mistake to view antitrust policy as simply a contest between Brandeis and Bork over whether competition policy should tilt toward consumers, workers, and farmers, on the one hand, or big business on the other. A third and better interpretation understands 1940s antitrust as something new—the reflection of an informal political consensus that rejected extensive economywide economic regulation, on the one hand, and laissez-faire deregulation on the other—in favor of close scrutiny of the competitive implications of the conduct of large firms in concentrated markets.

This informal political consensus meant that antitrust law became a positive-sum policy, focused on fostering economic growth and productivity rather than just a zero-sum distributional choice. That consensus was politically acceptable so long as the gains from making markets competitive were shared across the economy.

Thurman Arnold helped give birth to this new approach as the leader of the Department of Justice Antitrust Division from 1938 through 1943. Arnold ramped up enforcement, but his program was not a Brandeisan mix of deconcentration and regulation. “Unlike the Brandeisians,” the historian Ellis Hawley wrote, “Arnold never seemed greatly concerned about the mere possession of economic power or the social evils of bigness per se.” Arnold accepted that large firms were desirable “as long as they were efficient and passed along the savings to consumers.”

Arnold targeted industrywide problems with multiple lawsuits, which were often resolved through consent settlements. He also urged the courts to enforce tough checks on the anticompetitive conduct of large firms in concentrated markets. Arnold’s approach was ratified in key judicial decisions governing price-fixing and monopolization and by Congress when it enacted new merger legislation. “By linking antitrust to consumer interests, and in defining consumer interests as he did,” biographer Spencer Weber Waller explains, “Arnold set the stage for modern antitrust.”

Achieving the consensus that Arnold brokered was far from inevitable. For decades, political conflict over the role of large firms in the economy seemed impossible to resolve. The recognition that the U.S. political system reached an informal bargain explains why political conflict over large firms died down after the 1940s, to the point where historian Richard Hofstadter, writing in 1964, described antitrust as “one of the faded passions of American reform.”

The benefits of antitrust enforcement as an alternative both to widespread economic regulation and to the threat of market power posed by laissez-faire economic policies have long been understood, but the full import of Arnold’s accomplishment has not been widely recognized. Modern antitrust law is a neglected but highly consequential achievement of the World War II generation. The achievement stands alongside more heralded developments in economic policy, particularly international economic institutions and social safety net policies, in helping to construct a society that captured and shared broadly the benefits of economic growth. These developments collectively supported the American Dream of greater economic opportunity and better living standards.

From this perspective, the reworking of antitrust law that began in the late 1970s was a response to the economic problems of that later period—a reworking that sought to improve antitrust enforcement without rejecting the hard-won political consensus achieved decades earlier. Bork and the Chicagoans bet that greater efficiencies from relaxing antitrust rules would more than compensate for the increased risk that firms would exercise market power.

We now know that the Chicagoans lost their bet. Since the implementation of Chicago-inspired antitrust deregulation, market power has widened but without accompanying long-term economic welfare gains. Instead, economic dynamism and the rate of productivity growth have been declining, and growing market power has contributed to a skewed distribution of wealth.

With the benefit of hindsight, it is evident that the Chicago-oriented antitrust rules are not up to the task of controlling market power. Beyond the direct economic harms, the greater the license to exercise market power accorded to big businesses, the greater the threat that the political consensus for modern antitrust enforcement, formed in the 1940s, will collapse—setting up a divisive political choice between laissez-faire economic policies and an extensive regulatory response. Whichever side wins, this political conflict would be a setback. It would mark the end of Arnold’s competition-promoting and economic growth-enhancing approach to supervising large firms.

Arnold’s accomplishment teaches that without broad political acceptance, antitrust law cannot succeed in sustaining shared economic growth by fostering competition. Growing market power now threatens to undermine political support for antitrust enforcement, and with it, a notable achievement of Arnold and the Greatest Generation. To protect that achievement, restore competition, and help revitalize the American Dream, we must strengthen antitrust rules today.

Restoring competition requires stronger antitrust rules than those adopted four decades ago. The Chicago era rules have failed to deter anticompetitive conduct adequately, in part because they rely on what turned out to be erroneous assumptions about markets and institutions. But restoring competition does not mean returning to the rules established in Arnold’s time. The structural era rules were not created for an information technology economy, and their revival would excessively chill efficiencies.

Instead, enforcers and courts should bring modern economic thinking to bear. A recent collection of articles in The Yale Law Journal and my forthcoming book rely on economic analysis to identify enforcement initiatives to pursue and presumptions to adopt to make antitrust more effective in controlling market power. With modern economics as a guide, antitrust can restore a competitive economy.

—Jonathan B. Baker is a research professor of law at American University’s Washington College of Law. He is the author of the forthcoming book The Antitrust Paradigm: Restoring a Competitive Economy.

Competitive Edge: Structural presumption in U.S. merger control policy would strengthen modern antitrust enforcement

Antitrust and competition issues are receiving renewed interest, and for good reason. So far, the discussion has occurred at a high level of generality. To address important specific antitrust enforcement and competition issues, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth has launched this blog, which we call “Competitive Edge.” This series features leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of topics: potential areas for antitrust enforcement, concerns about existing doctrine, practical realities enforcers face, proposals for reform, and broader policies to promote competition. John Kwoka has authored this month’s contribution.

The octopus image, above, updates an iconic editorial cartoon first published in 1904 in the magazine Puck to portray the Standard Oil monopoly. Please note the harpoon. Our goal for Competitive Edge is to promote the development of sharp and effective tools to increase competition in the United States economy.


John Kwoka

In remarkably short order, the discussion about competition in the U.S. economy seems to have arrived at the substantial consensus that a problem exists. True, there are some economists and policymakers who still want more evidence, and others for whom no amount of evidence is likely to suffice. But the reality that stares consumers in the face every day is diminishing choice in airlines, brewing, cable TV, dog food, eyeglasses, financial services, grocery stores, hospitals, and, yes, “the entire alphabet of U.S. industries.” This impression is corroborated by economywide data documenting the rising levels of market concentration, the reduced rates of entry of firms into the economy and the overall decline in the number of firms, and the above-normal rates of profit, especially for leading companies. And these forces, in turn, have been associated not only with higher prices and reduced choice of goods and services, but also with longer-term adverse effects on innovation and productivity, worker wages and income equality, and other social objectives.

The time has come to move on to the question of how to fix this problem of diminished competition. My own analysis, in “Reviving Merger Control: A Comprehensive Plan for Reforming Policy and Practice,” has identified several distinct weaknesses of merger control and proposes 10 changes in policy and practice that would help remedy it. Among these, one stands out as uniquely important because it would simultaneously make merger control more effective and more efficient. It would make it more effective by preventing a higher fraction of anticompetitive mergers and more efficient by relieving the antitrust agencies of some of their current burden of proof.

What is this seemingly magical policy potion? It is nothing more than restoring the 50-year-old legal doctrine known as the structural presumption. The structural presumption says simply that large mergers in highly concentrated markets are so likely to be anticompetitive that they can be presumed anticompetive unless proven otherwise. This proposition effectively shifts the burden to companies proposing to merge, so that they have to demonstrate why their merger is the rare exception to the general rule and will not harm competition. This contrasts with the current process, where the antitrust agency bears the full burden of predicting exactly how each merger—no matter how obviously problematic—will harm competition in order to act against it.

Reviving the old tool of structural presumption to strengthen modern merger control

The structural presumption doctrine was advanced by the U.S. Supreme Court in its 1963 decision in United States v. Philadelphia National Bank. In that ruling, the court noted that merger analysis is a difficult exercise in prediction and urged “simplify[ing] the test of illegality” in certain cases by “dispensing … with elaborate proof.” Specifically, the court stated that “a merger which produces a firm controlling an undue percentage share of the relevant market, and results in a significant increase in the concentration of firms … is so inherently likely to lessen competition substantially that it must be enjoined in the absence of evidence clearly showing that the merger is not likely to have such anticompetitive effect.” This doctrine reflected economic research at the time that showed a statistical relationship between high market concentration and prices or profit margins. It was intended to ease the process of merger control in those cases where competitive harm was fully predictable, without requiring the same detailed analysis as otherwise might be necessary.

A clearer statement of policy could hardly be imagined. What remained was to set out the applicable thresholds of share and concentration, and to identify the possible factors that might offset the presumption. These should, in principle, be found in the Horizontal Merger Guidelines issued jointly by the the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission. Reality differs. The share and concentration thresholds for mergers in those guidelines do not constitute a true presumption but rather, simply varying degrees of scrutiny. In addition, the relevant thresholds have twice been relaxed, exempting ever more mergers from the highest level of scrutiny—and, in any event, mergers exceeding the stated thresholds are often approved.

This last point—the deviation of practice from policy—is clear from Federal Trade Commission data on the number of merger investigations and the number of challenges made by that agency from 1996 through 2011. These data show that for mergers in markets with more than four remaining significant competitors—which, the FTC suggested, might be one with at least a 10 percent share—the FTC has challenged an ever-smaller fraction over time. The agency challenged more than one-third of mergers with five to eight such firms in the period 1996 to 2003, but only one-sixth in 2004 to 2007, and then literally none—zero—starting in 2008.

While the agency continued to challenge mergers in the very highest category of concentration, all mergers—every single one in this medium-to-high-concentration group—were nonetheless approved. This evidence leaves little doubt that weakened antitrust policy has contributed directly to rising concentration.

Of course, some commentators would argue that this narrowing of enforcement has been desirable because it has avoided making the mistake of challenging beneficial mergers. But as noted, economic research has long documented the effect of high market concentration on prices. In addition, there is now even more compelling evidence that mergers in these high-to-moderately-high concentration markets are, in fact, generally anticompetitive. This evidence comes from so-called merger retrospectives—careful economic studies of the actual price outcomes of specific mergers. I have matched the price outcomes of about 40 of these studied mergers to their market concentration. While this is only a small fraction of all such mergers, the evidence tells two strikingly different stories.

First, it shows that of these mergers with four or fewer remaining firms, prices did, in fact, rise in all cases. This provides support for the FTC’s strong—but not quite perfect—enforcement record against mergers in the highest concentration range. But the data also show that all mergers with five remaining competitors proved to be anticompetitive. The same is true for 80 percent of those with six remaining competitors and even for 50 percent of those with seven remaining competitors. Mergers, in short, prove to be anticompetitive in a significantly wider array of cases than the narrower set most recently targeted by the FTC.

The key and crucial discrepancy between enforcement and effects arises for mergers in high-to-moderately-high concentration markets, where there remain five, six, or even seven significant competitors. Here, enforcement has ceased despite clear evidence of competitive harm. To be sure, the failure of enforcement in this range is due to several factors, not all of which are within the control of the agency. The annual budgets of the two antitrust agencies are demonstrably inadequate for their mission. The judiciary is demanding ever greater proof of predicted anticompetitive outcomes. Ideological forces outside the agency have fostered an anti-antitrust view. Regardless of all the causes, however, antitrust policy has narrowed its mission and left a range of demonstrably anticompetitive mergers free to proceed.

A solution hiding in plain sight

Fortunately, a key initiative that would help to solve this problem is hiding in plain sight, suggested by the same data just used to identify the failure of merger enforcement. It is nothing more than the approach urged by the U.S. Supreme Court more than a half-century ago. After all, if all or nearly all mergers with fewer than some number of remaining significant competitors are known to be anticompetitive, that bright line standard—the structural presumption—could be used to prohibit them, absent some compelling reason, precisely as the Supreme Court urged. The evidence just reviewed makes clear that this would not result in excessive enforcement but rather would correct recent underenforcement.

Since the structural presumption originated with the court, it breaks no new legal ground. Nonetheless, new legislation to codify the presumption would strengthen the hands of the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department and the FTC in their use of the doctrine. In addition, more economic research into the best measures and thresholds of concentration would be important. And there are some practical hurdles to overcome. Specific “antitrust markets” would need to be defined. Characteristics of a “significant competitor” might need to be further specified. Potentially offsetting factors would need to be identified—and sharply circumscribed. And the courts would have to learn, or relearn, this doctrine.

A further advantage of structural presumption is that it would restore vitality to merger analysis concerning coordination among firms. Agencies have struggled with such cases due to the difficulty of proving that a particular merger crosses some line of predictable anticompetitive effects. But the very essence of the structural presumption is that beyond some small number of firms, coordination is, in fact, fully predictable, and therefore antitrust action is fully justified. This presumption would provide the crucial necessary tool for the agencies to bring and prevail in such cases.

So, based on the best current evidence, it would seem that an appropriately designed structural approach that shifts the burden for mergers with as many as five or six remaining competitors would be both effective and efficient. Such a policy would be effective since it would appear to make few errors, and whatever errors it might make would likely be offset by correcting the errors of inadequate current policy. It would be efficient since it would spare the antitrust agencies the burden they currently face of developing detailed, case-specific analyses of the mechanism for coordination and the dollar value of harms, buttressed by evidence from documents, data, and economic models. While all those might be necessary and feasible in some cases, recent antitrust cases show how the complexity of this process can result in bad court decisions. Moreover, avoidance of this burden would free up the agencies’ resources and allow them to bring more cases where enforcement has languished.

Merger analysis in recent times has benefitted from cutting-edge advances in economic models and methods, such things as unilateral effects and upward pricing pressure, diversion ratios and critical loss assessment, and others. But for the next—and necessary—step toward strengthening merger control, antitrust should look backward, back to the method provided by the U.S. Supreme Court for proceeding against mergers where case-specific evidence is difficult to assemble but the anticompetitive effects are nonetheless clear. Modern merger control can significantly improve enforcement by reviving the use of the structural presumption.

—John Kwoka is the Neal F. Finnegan Distinguished Professor of Economics at Northeastern University.

Competitive Edge: Antitrust enforcers need reinforcements to keep pace with algorithms, machine learning, and artificial intelligence

Antitrust and competition issues are receiving renewed interest, and for good reason. So far, the discussion has occurred at a high level of generality. To address important specific antitrust enforcement and competition issues, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth has launched this blog, which we call “Competitive Edge.” This series features leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of topics: potential areas for antitrust enforcement, concerns about existing doctrine, practical realities enforcers face, proposals for reform, and broader policies to promote competition. Terrell McSweeny has authored this month’s contribution.

The octopus image, above, updates an iconic editorial cartoon first published in 1904 in the magazine Puck to portray the Standard Oil monopoly. Please note the harpoon. Our goal for Competitive Edge is to promote the development of sharp and effective tools to increase competition in the United States economy.


Terrell McSweeny

Algorithmic price fixing isn’t science fiction. The U.S. Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division and the United Kingdom’s Competition and Markets Authority have already brought their first case in which competitors agreed to use specific pricing algorithms for the sale of posters online. This particular case did not stretch the traditional antitrust framework for price fixing because humans were involved. But as technology becomes more powerful and autonomous, some competition experts are raising concerns about whether analog antitrust doctrines can keep pace. The debate is far from settled, but it is increasingly clear that 21st century regulators are going to need technological expertise to aid them in making enforcement decisions.

Competition regulators in major markets around the world are actively assessing whether technology requires changes to their antitrust enforcement frameworks. Here in the United States, the Federal Trade Commission is wrapping up a series of public hearings on “Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century” by focusing on algorithms, artificial intelligence, and predictive analytics. It plans to examine ethical and consumer protection issues associated with the use of these technologies and how competitive dynamics are affected by them.

In their most basic form, algorithms are instructions that computers follow to process data and solve problems. They are essential building blocks of our digital lives. Frequently they are used to set prices. Increasingly sophisticated pricing algorithms can offer more personalized prices or different prices for people based on information about them. Algorithms can help consumers quickly and easily locate and compare prices of products. Personalized pricing based on a customer’s ability to pay, expected individual demand, and other data points can improve efficiency and benefit consumers, though it doesn’t always work that way. For instance, studies find that people are shown higher prices on mobile devices than on desktop computers or higher prices depending on how far they are from a store location. Some antitrust experts worry that the pricing algorithms that are increasingly common in both digital and analog markets might facilitate coordination—either expressly or tacitly—thereby minimizing competition on price to the detriment of consumers while remaining undetected by antitrust enforcers.

It is important for competition enforcers to study changes in technology that affect competition, but it doesn’t necessarily follow that pricing algorithms will collude or that they will be used in collusive schemes. If pricing algorithms are truly personalized—that is, quoting different prices for different people based on a number of different data points—then collusion is unlikely since it will be nearly impossible for would-be conspirators to discipline “cheaters,” or those competitors who are deviating from the agreement.

There are two key concerns that antitrust regulators must grapple with regarding pricing algorithms, particularly in highly concentrated industries. The first has to do with technical capabilities. As the use of algorithms becomes more common, will regulators be able to understand and detect when algorithms are being used to collude? The second concern has to do with pricing algorithms automatically and independently gravitating to higher prices without human intervention or agreement. Such conduct might be hard to detect and address under existing law.

Much of the current antitrust debate also is focused on whether regulators properly understand and address the role of data in digital markets. Data’s significance as a competitive asset depends on the facts. Some data, for example, are public or can be obtained from data brokers for a fairly nominal cost. And some data can be nonrivalrous, meaning it can be used by many companies at the same time. But other data are proprietary and can operate as a barrier to entry. Antitrust agencies have proven relatively capable of addressing competition issues around data, but the demands on agencies to engage in highly technical, fact-based examinations are only likely to increase as data becomes more important in the world of predictive analytics and artificial intelligence.

Against this backdrop, it is essential for antitrust agencies to rely not only on legal and economic expertise but also technological expertise. While antitrust frameworks have proven relatively adaptable, a key question is whether the agencies themselves have the capabilities required for the digital age. Some regulators are already incorporating technologists into their work. Brazil, for example, has a technology lab. Similarly, the European Union’s Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager has suggested that the Directorate General for Competition create its own algorithms in order to figure out if collusion is taking place.

In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission created a position for a chief technologist in the FTC chair’s office in 2011 and expanded its research and technology capabilities with the creation of the Office of Technology Research and Investigation, or O-Tech, in 2015. But that office is currently housed in the agency’s Bureau of Consumer Protection, suggesting its work and resources are mostly directed toward the consumer protection mission of the agency. The Federal Trade Commission should consider creating an independent and fully staffed office for the chief technologist or even a Bureau of Technology to enhance its required technological expertise and support its competition mission.

—Terrell McSweeny is a former commissioner of the Federal Trade Commission and previously held senior positions in the White House, the U.S. Department of Justice, and the U.S. Senate. She currently is a partner at the law firm Covington and Burling LLP.

Competitive Edge: Protecting the “competitive process”—the evolution of antitrust enforcement in the United States

Antitrust and competition issues are receiving renewed interest, and for good reason. So far, the discussion has occurred at a high level of generality. To address important specific antitrust enforcement and competition issues, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth has launched this blog, which we call “Competitive Edge.” This series features leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of topics: potential areas for antitrust enforcement, concerns about existing doctrine, practical realities enforcers face, proposals for reform, and broader policies to promote competition. Jonathan Sallet has authored this month’s contribution.

The octopus image, above, updates an iconic editorial cartoon first published in 1904 in the magazine Puck to portray the Standard Oil monopoly. Please note the harpoon. Our goal for Competitive Edge is to promote the development of sharp and effective tools to increase competition in the United States economy.


Jonathan Sallet

The Federal Trade Commission this week tackles a central question of competition: Are the goals of antitrust enforcement in the United States best pursued by applying what’s known as the consumer welfare standard?

Over the past forty years, the consumer welfare standard has become closely associated with the so-called “Chicago School” of antitrust doctrine—named after the scholarship centered at the University of Chicago—a central theme of which is that a monopoly is unlikely to cause harm to consumers, either through vertical integration (the merger of companies at different points in the production process) or exclusionary conduct (for example, the kind of actions at issue in the Microsoft case that enabled the company to maintain its monopoly). Indeed, the view that monopolies will seldom if ever harm consumers rests uneasily in the context of a body of law given the name “anti-trust” precisely because the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890 was designed to combat trusts, the giant monopolies of the late 19th century and early 20th century.

At various points, the Chicago School has been invoked by those arguing that antitrust should focus on short-term price effects or that monopoly power will inevitably be disturbed by future competition or that foreclosure is unlikely or that vertical mergers will always (or almost always) benefit competition. And the influence of the Chicago School on the application of antitrust law over the past four decades has been extremely significant.

So the question remains: What does it mean just to safeguard “consumer” welfare?

From its inception, the term has been surrounded by uncertainly, in part because the influential Chicago-School jurist and former Solicitor General of the United States Robert Bork himself thought that competitive effects should look beyond consumers to what economists label “total welfare” or the overall value produced by a particular market’s organization, independent of the specific way that gains or losses to individual firms are distributed. And now, the term is under attack. Barry Lynn of the Open Markets Institute urges the two antitrust agencies of the federal government, the Federal Trade Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice’s antitrust division, to formally abandon the consumer-welfare approach, partly because of the evidence he believes demonstrates increased market concentration in the U.S. economy.

This week, the Federal Trade Commission will hear leading scholars both defend the consumer welfare standard and suggest alternative formulations. What is striking about the alternatives being offered is how closely they group around a focus on the “competitive process.” So, for example, Carl Shapiro from the University of California–Berkeley’s Hass School of Business will offer “The Protecting Competition Standard,” under which “a business practice is judged to be anti-competitive if it harms trading parties on the other side of the market as a result of disrupting the competitive process.” This approach, he explains, broadens the central idea behind the consumer welfare standard to account for trading parties other than final consumers, while incorporating both economics and evidence to strengthen antitrust enforcement.

Using similar language, Columbia Law School professor Tim Wu argues for the “protection of competition” as an approach that better orients antitrust enforcement toward “protecting a competitive process that actually rewards firms with better products.” And University of Tennessee law professor Maurice Stucke and his co-author Marshall Steinbaum at the Roosevelt Institute have proposed the use of a new “effective competition” standard, along with legislative changes to effectuate it, noting that “competition policy is principally concerned about promoting a competitive process.” (Barry Lynn and I are both among the other presenters on this question.)

But what difference does a change in terminology make? After all, antitrust specialists generally recognize that antitrust is not limited to short-term price impacts. And the importance of the competitive process has been recognized. For example, the D.C. Circuit’s Microsoft decision emphasized the importance of the competitive process when it explained that antitrust law “directs itself not against conduct which is competitive, even severely so, but against conduct which unfairly tends to destroy competition itself.”

That said, antitrust litigation can be complicated. In front of a generalist judge, government enforcers rightly bear the burden of persuasion—they need not bear an unnecessary burden of explanation.

There are important circumstances in which the term “consumer welfare” can cause unnecessary confusion. Consider carefully the emphasis by UC Berkeley’s Shapiro on harm to “trading parties.” From the perspective of a seller, that means consumers. But from the perspective of a powerful buyer, it means upstream sellers—think of a sawmill that buys the output of logging operations. Or consider employers that agree not to compete against each other for the “purchase” of labor, a practice the two federal antitrust agencies have said will be subject to criminal prosecution as the flip side of an agreement among sellers to fix prices. The workers who are harmed may not be the consumers of those employers but they are “sellers” who, along with the competitive process, have been harmed.

Buyer power (which does not always require monopsony—the flip side of monopoly) is getting increased attention, which adds to the importance of providing a clear picture of potential competitive effects. Last month, the Federal Trade Commission held a hearing on just this issue, and earlier in the year noted antitrust scholar Herb Hovenkamp, the James G. Dinan University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania Law School and Wharton School, in a paper with co-author Ioana Marinescu, professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania School of Social Policy & Practice, focusing on mergers impacting labor markets and positing that “the antitrust law against anticompetitive mergers affecting employment markets is certainly underenforced, very likely by a significant amount.”

So, for example, during the Department of Justice’s challenge to the merger of healthcare insurers Anthem Inc. and Cigna Corp., the antitrust division’s buyer-power claim (which was not ruled on by the district court) ran headlong into assertions that no problem could exist if that greater buyer power translated into lower prices to customers. But, argue Scott Hemphill of New York University’s School of Law and economist Nancy Rose of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in a recent article in The Yale Law Journal, “the proper focus is harm to sellers.”

Consider also mergers of so-called intermediate buyers—companies that buy from upstream providers and sell to consumers. Such mergers can harm competition because of their effect on, for example, restaurants buying from food-distribution companies, as in the proposed merger between Sysco Corp. and U.S. Foods Holding Corporation that the Federal Trade Commission successfully blocked. In that case, the district court expressly recognized competitive effects on customers “ranging from the corner diner to hospital and nursing home cafeterias to hospitality venues.”

Against this, it could be argued that current law does the job. After all, the Federal Trade Commission won a preliminary injunction in the Sysco case. And U.S. Assistant Attorney General of the Antitrust Division, Makan Delrahim, recently invoked a complaint filed by the Department of Justice in 2016, asserting that information-exchange among prospective buyers of the Dodgers Channel in Los Angeles “deprived LA area Dodgers fans of a competitive process.”

But, from a litigator’s perspective, the use of the term “consumer welfare” injects issues into such cases that threaten confusion without advancing understanding. The importance of considering practical litigation impact was identified by Equitable Growth’s Michael Kades in the September 21st FTC hearing, when he emphasized that if the government has to continually prove basic facts in every case and even the easiest cases are hard, then antitrust laws are failing to protect competition. The continuing confusion about the role of consumers in cases where anti-competitive effects are focused on other traders or the impact of exclusion is defended on the ground that competitors are not consumers helps demonstrate that the “competitive process” better describes the inquiry at hand.

Legal phrases are not talismanic. The application of any formulation requires hard work, a close eye on evidence, and continued attention to competitive effects. But it is notable that this week leading antitrust scholars will focus us on protecting the competitive process as the next step in the evolution of antitrust.

Jonathan B. Sallet is a senior fellow at the Benton Foundation and previously general counsel of the Federal Communications Commission and deputy assistant attorney general in the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice.

Competitive Edge: Judge Kavanaugh – Would he increase the divide between the public and judicial debate over antitrust enforcement?

Antitrust and competition issues are receiving renewed interest, and for good reason. So far, the discussion has occurred at a high level of generality. To address important specific antitrust enforcement and competition issues, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth has launched this blog, which we call “Competitive Edge.” This series features leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of topics: potential areas for antitrust enforcement, concerns about existing doctrine, practical realities enforcers face, proposals for reform, and broader policies to promote competition. Howard Shelanski and Michael Kades have authored our second entry.

The octopus image, above, updates an iconic editorial cartoon first published in 1904 in the magazine Puck to portray the Standard Oil monopoly. Please note the harpoon. Our goal for Competitive Edge is to promote the development of sharp and effective tools to increase competition in the United States economy.


For the first time in decades, antitrust policy is part of the national political debate. Widespread concerns about the conduct of digital platforms, arguments over whether a narrow focus on prices is missing larger competitive harms, and studies showing trends toward increased market concentration and higher profit margins have all motivated calls from diverse quarters for stronger U.S. antitrust enforcement. The data and concerns underlying this public discussion are rightly subject to serious debate, yet the pro-enforcement motivation evident in the current policy debate differs starkly in direction from the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent antitrust jurisprudence.

Over the past decade, the Supreme Court has, with one exception that we discuss below, followed a path of reduced enforcement, reflected in decisions weakening prohibitions against vertical restraints (Leegin Creative Leather Products Inc. v. PSKS Inc.), limiting the role for antitrust in regulated industries (Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC v. Billing), and increasing burdens on plaintiffs challenging conduct by “multisided platforms” (Ohio v. American Express Co.). Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) underscored this divergence when questioning Judge Brett Kavanaugh in his recent Supreme Court confirmation hearings about how he might further limit antitrust doctrine. Although antitrust issues are not a central issue in his confirmation, the evidence is strong that Judge Kavanaugh would cement a five-judge conservative majority that would likely raise, not lower, barriers to antitrust enforcement.

The delicate balance on the Supreme Court, in which Kavanaugh would become a factor, is evident in the last two substantive antitrust cases the Supreme Court decided. In FTC v. Actavis, Inc., which is the exception we refer to in the paragraph above, a 5-to-3 majority (Justice Samuel Alito was recused) found that patent settlements can violate the antitrust laws in a decision that favored enforcers. In Ohio v. American Express Co., a 5-to-4 majority ruled that the plaintiffs had failed to establish anticompetitive effects, increasing the burden of proof at least in cases involving so called two-sided transaction markets. In each case, Justice Anthony Kennedy, whom Kavanaugh would replace, was the deciding vote. The available evidence suggests that Kavanaugh would side with the more conservative Justices in similar cases down the road.

Although Kavanaugh has penned only a few substantive antitrust decisions, those decisions reflect the conservative economic approach of the so-called Chicago School, which refers to a group of academics who began criticizing antitrust enforcement in the 1960s from an efficiency-oriented, neo-classical economic perspective, some of whom went on to become judges, such as Robert Bork, Frank Easterbrook, and Richard Posner. Through their lens, the Chicago School argued that many previously prohibited commercial activities were more likely to reduce prices for consumers than to harm competition and ushered in more lenient legal rules and policies.

More recently, those legal rules have been criticized for going too far and allowing businesses to get away with too much anticompetitive activity. Whether one agrees with that criticism, it is an important question whether a new Supreme Court Justice makes it more or less likely that the federal courts will shift to a more enforcement-oriented antitrust jurisprudence.

In the case of Judge Kavanaugh, the answer seems clearly to be no. In recent decisions, he has taken a strongly Chicago-School approach, invoking Judge Bork’s Antitrust Paradox in dissents that, if they were to become law, would weaken antitrust law’s limitations on horizontal mergers (mergers between competing firms) in two important ways. 14 First, he would weaken the presumption of illegality that arises when the government makes its initial case for harm. Second, he has articulated a narrow view of what evidence an enforcement agency or plaintiff can use to define a market. Let’s look at each of these issues in turn.

Weakening the presumption

Under current merger doctrine, the government must establish a prima facie case that a merger is anticompetitive, usually by showing it will substantially increase concentration in a relevant market. The defendants may then argue that the merger would create efficiencies that will outweigh the harm. Typically, courts are skeptical of efficiencies and require strong evidence that they will in fact materialize and offset any harm to competition.

Judge Kavanaugh’s dissent in the Anthem case reflects an assumption that efficiencies are likely and large. The case arose out of the U.S. Department of Justice’s challenge to Anthem Inc.’s proposed acquisition of Cigna Corp. The district court found that the health insurance market for large employers was presumptively anticompetitive, but then it rejected the merging parties’ defense—that the merger would create efficiencies and those procompetitive benefits would outweigh any harms. The district court rejected the defense expert’s opinion and found that both internal documentary evidence from Anthem and testimony from Cigna contradicted the efficiency defense. On appeal, the majority of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals agreed with the district court, stressing that the efficiency defense was a factual issue and could be reversed only if there were clear errors. The majority explained in detail why the efficiencies evidence was limited and failed to meet the requirements for rebutting the presumption of harm. 15

In dissent, Judge Kavanaugh agreed that the merger was presumptively anticompetitive, but he believed the defendants had met their burden in providing a procompetitive justification for the deal: the combined company would negotiate lower prices from health providers that would be passed along to its customers. Relying on the defendants’ expert and a consultant report, Judge Kavanaugh concludes, “In short, the record overwhelmingly establishes that the merger would generate significant medical cost savings for employers in all of the geographic markets at issue here … and employers would therefore spend significantly less on healthcare costs.” 16

In Judge Kavanaugh’s assessment, the district court should have flipped the burden back to the federal government, which had failed to return the volley. He wrote: “By contrast, the Government’s expert, Dr. Dranove, never did a merger simulation that calculated the amount of the savings that would result from the lower provider rates and be passed through to employers. … So we are left with Anthem-Cigna’s evidence showing $1.7 to $3.3 billion annually in passed-through savings for employers.” 17

On the one hand, the dispute between the majority and Judge Kavanaugh may be over the application of the standard of review, or how much evidence is required for an appellate court to overturn a district’s factual finding. But it is well established that where the evidence admits two different inferences, the trial court’s conclusion stands, even if the reviewing court would have chosen differently. On the other hand, the dispute may be over substantive antitrust law. Judge Kavanaugh’s dissent could reflect a view that, once defendants provide an estimate of savings that offset the potential harm, the government must offer a contrary estimate; it is not enough for the district court itself to reject the defendants’ efficiencies evidence.

Market definition

While Judge Kavanaugh’s dissent in the Anthem case suggests lowering the burden on defendants to establish an efficiency defense, his dissent in Federal Trade Comm’n v. Whole Foods suggests he would require a higher burden on the government to establish a presumption of illegality in a merger case. In that case, the district court had denied the Federal Trade Commission a preliminary injunction against Whole Foods’ acquisition of Wild Oats on grounds that the Commission failed to prove its definition of the relevant market as consisting of “premium natural organic supermarkets” rather than all supermarkets. On appeal, the majority reversed that decision, finding that the district court abused its discretion in denying the injunction. Judge Kavanaugh would have affirmed the district court’s ruling.

The dispositive issue in the case was showing what the Federal Trade Commission needed to make to obtain a preliminary injunction and whether the evidence satisfied that standard. That issue was, and continues to be, highly contentious, and Judge Kavanaugh’s dissent again indicated a view that the government should bear a relatively high burden of proof.

Importantly, Judge Kavanaugh appears to find that the government must have pricing evidence to prove a relevant market, arguing that: “In the absence of any evidence in the record that Whole Foods was able to (or did) set higher prices when Wild Oats exited or was absent, the District Court correctly concluded that Whole Foods competes in a market composed of all supermarkets.” 18 While courts often do rely on pricing evidence to define markets, such evidence is not always available and is not always required.

Indeed, the government’s economic expert (Kevin Murphy, from the University of Chicago) presented sophisticated economic analysis and the Federal Trade Commission presented significant documentary evidence in support of the Commission’s narrower market definition. If Judge Kavanaugh believes that such evidence is insufficient to meet the government’s burden—at least in the absence of quantitative price effects—then the Supreme Court, with Judge Kavanaugh’s membership, could change merger jurisprudence, making it less hospitable to stronger enforcement.

One might agree or disagree with Judge Kavanaugh’s positions in the above dissents, just as one might agree or disagree with recent calls for stronger antitrust enforcement. Our purpose here is to demonstrate why Judge Kavanaugh’s presence on the Supreme Court would likely widen rather than narrow the divergence between the direction of the Supreme Court and the direction of the public debate with respect to antitrust enforcement.

Howard Shelanski is a professor of law at Georgetown University and a partner at the law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP. Previously, he served as the Administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs at the Office of Management and Budget in President Barack Obama’s White House. Michael Kades is the director for Markets and Competition Policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. Prior to joining Equitable Growth, he worked as antitrust counsel for Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), the ranking member on the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights

Competitive Edge: There is a lot to fix in U.S. antitrust enforcement today

Antitrust and competition issues are receiving renewed interest, and for good reason. So far, the discussion has occurred at a high level of generality. To address important specific antitrust enforcement and competition issues, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth is launching a new blog entitled “Competitive Edge.” This series will feature leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of topics: potential areas for antitrust enforcement, concerns about existing doctrine, practical realities enforcers face, proposals for reform, and broader policies to promote competition. We are honored that Fiona Scott Morton, has authored our inaugural entry.

The octopus image, above, updates an iconic editorial cartoon first published in 1904 in the magazine Puck to portray the Standard Oil monopoly. Please note the harpoon. Our goal for Competitive Edge is to promote the development of sharp and effective tools to increase competition in the United States economy.


Fiona Scott Morton

Last month’s court decision allowing AT&T Inc. to acquire Time Warner Inc. is an example of the inability of our current system of courts and enforcement to prevent the decline in competition in the modern U.S. economy. In the case of that merger, the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice gets credit for making an attempt to block what it viewed as an anti-competitive transaction. What’s more, that view proved prescient after the now-merged firm almost immediately raised prices after executives testified that the synergies from the deal would immediately cause lower prices.

The court decision of U.S. District Judge Richard Leon demonstrated a lack of understanding of the markets, the concept of vertical integration, corporate incentives, and the intellectual exercise of forecasting what the unified firm would do. And so, not surprisingly, it produced a poor decision. The Supreme Court decision in Ohio v. American Express Company further weakens antitrust enforcement by complicating the analysis and raising the standard of proof for platform business cases.

There are many other settings where consumers deserve similar efforts to protect competition and where the two federal antitrust agencies have yet to take enforcement steps. This spring, both Bruce Hoffman, director of the Bureau of Competition in the Federal Trade Commission, and Makan Delrahim, assistant attorney general at the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division, have publicly called for assistance in both finding new cases to bring and developing theories of harm. Fortunately, a new volume of The Yale Law Journal—bringing together top antirust scholars and papers presented at a conference last fall that was co-hosted by the American University Washington College of Law and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth—has just come out to meet this pressing need.

The recommendations in the issue do not require novel applications of antitrust law or innovative interpretations of antitrust law. They are low-risk and high-return cases for U.S. antitrust agencies to bring. But enforcement in these areas will require the agencies to look beyond old markets with lots of precedent, and instead analyze the products that consumers are now buying such as online hotel bookings, credit cards, technology standards, and mutual funds, or markets where consumers are selling such as labor markets. These are markets that do not have established jurisprudence or a recent history of enforcement, with the notable exception of American Express. More novel cases are harder to bring because an existing draft complaint is not already sitting in the files of the enforcement agencies.

The papers in the issue of The Yale Law Journal identify the types of cases the agencies should be pursuing such as anti-competitive most-favored-nation clauses. Consumers are buying ever-more goods and services online, and yet the contracts governing those prices have been subjected to no scrutiny in the United States. In Europe, an online travel agent such as Expedia Group Inc. may not require a hotel to keep its price equal or higher at all travel agencies that compete with Expedia; hotels are expressly allowed to give whatever discounts they prefer to different travel sites. In contrast, this price-increasing behavior remains effectively legal in the United States.

The Yale Law Journal issue also lays out the rationale for the agencies’ bringing cases involving harm to sellers, including employees, as this is a source of anti-competitive harm as much as higher prices. With some exceptions, antitrust enforcement has typically stayed away from these kinds of cases. Whether due to fear, doctrinal uncertainty, or misperceptions, this disclination should change.

Then there is the argument for using antitrust enforcement to end abuse by standard-setting organizations. New technologies are a key area where enforcement must keep up with consumers’ purchasing habits. Communication standards (such as those found in cellular technology—for example the so-called Long-Term Evolution standard), which are set by a standard-setting organization, often define the boundaries of competition. By a variety of conduct, some patent holders have exploited this standard-setting process across many technologies to undermine competition and harm consumers. Absent antitrust enforcement, this abusive conduct could delay the roll-out of the Internet of Things or increase its cost. The Yale Law Journal articles make a compelling case that economic theory and empirical evidence strongly support such actions. Although under Assistant Attorney General Delrahim—an acknowledged patent hawk—DOJ action protecting consumers in this area is unlikely, but at the FTC, Chairman Joe Simons was active in this area in his previous role as the FTC’s director of the Bureau of Competition, bringing the Rambus and Unocal cases.

Second, there are areas where the agencies may need to defend current doctrine or push back against mistaken doctrine. This category includes reaffirming the presumption in horizontal merger cases, redoubling efforts on vertical mergers after the AT&T-Time Warner decision (with full credit to the DOJ for bringing the case), and pushing back on doctrines that appear to limit the role of antitrust in pursuing predation cases. Further, in times of deregulation, active and vigorous antitrust enforcement is even more critical.

Multisided platforms such as credit cards, news sites, and auctions present old economic theories in a new setting, which courts find confusing. Although the Supreme Court’s recent decision in the American Express case limits the government’s ability to enforce the antitrust laws, the agencies must continue to be aggressive in their defense of competitive markets. Many platform cases will need to be brought promptly in order to clarify just how much protection from the antitrust laws the American Express decision will give these businesses.

Finally, there are important new areas for enforcement that require study of the kind only the agencies can do. Mutual funds that hold significant stakes in competing firms, such as the largest four domestic airlines, have the potential to lessen competition. The agencies have the power to examine communications between mutual funds and the companies they hold. Without such study, policymakers cannot learn the true impact on markets of many large, common owners. If that impact turns out to be significant and enforcers have done nothing to learn about it, then they will contribute to exposing U.S. consumers to more anti-competitive harm.

In its entirety, The Yale Law Journal issue lays out an initial roadmap of cases that are well-grounded in economic analysis and legal precedent. Enforcement in these areas would make U.S. markets more competitive. I have mailed a copy of this issue to both Chairman Simons and AAG Delrahim in the hopes that they find the content responsive to their call for enforcement assistance from the academic community. Each author has kindly agreed to answer any questions the agencies might have about their articles. I look forward to seeing the enforcement choices of these agencies in the year ahead.

I will close by, noting that this recent issue does not even analyze the conduct of the large technology companies that we often hear concerns about today. In the legislative realm, the U.S. Congress needs to increase the staff (with a larger budget) at both agencies to allow them to match their enforcement efforts to Gross Domestic Product. Competitive problems grow with the economy, but we have let our enforcement efforts stagnate. There is much still to do in this area to protect competition in the United States and the American consumer.

—Fiona M. Scott Morton is the Theodore Nierenberg Professor of Economics at the Yale University School of Management.

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