A prominent feature of the post-Great Recession U.S. economy is the lack of adequate wage growth despite a tight labor market. One explanation is that a decline in workers’ bargaining power put downward pressure on wage growth. The declining labor share of income is popularly cited as one reason behind weakened worker bargaining power, and a burgeoning field of research ascribes much of this decline to the increase in monopsony power in the United States. This researcher seeks to estimate workers’ bargaining power over time in the United States. It will make some important extensions on the job search model, and then move onto a model of wage determination that looks at how labor market dynamics, such as vacancies and unemployment, impact wage determination via worker bargaining power.

Capital gains are one of the largest components of income at the top of the wealth distribution and play a key role in measuring wealth inequality. Yet capital gains are rarely included in estimates of the wealth distribution in economics, mainly because measurement requires detailed information on the distribution of wealth at the individual security level. This project will construct a new dataset to directly measure the holdings of public equities and fixed-income assets for all individuals in the United States using internal IRS data from the 1099-DIV and 1099-INT forms, which have not previously been used by researchers. This improved data will allow for more accurate estimates of wealth inequality, including new estimates of top-end wealth inequality. It will also shed light on savings rates across the income distribution and bring to bear new evidence of whether the rich save more.

Many social insurance programs replace some percentage of prior earnings while a claimant is away from work during a shock, such as unemployment, disability, or the birth of a child. Implementation relies on “base periods” from which prior earnings are measured in order to establish the wage replacement rate. This project will explore the base period and its implications for a large subset of primarily low-income program recipients. Focusing on California’s Unemployment Insurance program and combining three administrative datasets, this researcher seeks to explain how earnings volatility, among other factors, can impact the value of Unemployment Insurance and claimant experience with the program. Other research shows that low-income workers experience significant volatility in earnings, partially due to a lack of control over how many hours of work they are given. Understanding how income volatility in the base period impacts subsequent volatility/income decline while receiving benefits is an important policy question.

Prior research suggests that concentration and firm mark-ups have increased in the United States over the past several decades, potentially resulting in a higher share of income going to capital instead of labor. These previous multi-industry studies have not addressed why concentration and mark-ups may have increased, and how policies, such as greater antitrust enforcement or merger review, could alter these trends. This project aims to contribute to these unanswered questions by focusing on an industry-specific analysis. Utilizing cement industry data from the United States between 1973 and 2019, the authors will explore how technological change sparked by the introduction of the precalciner kiln altered market structure and the changes in the share of income going to owners’ profits relative to workers’ wages over time.

A clearer picture of U.S. intergenerational mobility is emerging for the latter part of the 20th century, but the same is not true for earlier in the century. This project is a massive data undertaking that will produce a database of mobility rates going back to 1900. Previous work, most notably the American Opportunity Study, links U.S. Census Decennials from 1940–2000. This project makes some important extensions. It will expand the feasible linkages back to 1900 so that the panel spans the entire 20th century. Perhaps the most important contribution is the use of the Social Security Numerical Identification Files, or SS-5s, which contain information obtained from the application for a Social Security card for more than 40 million individuals who died prior to 2007 and include substantially more information on individuals than U.S. Census records, increasing the number of linkages and the quality of those linkages. In particular, the wealth of information in a single record is vastly superior to a Census-to-Census linking process and will better facilitate linkages within families, including for married women who have changed their names, improving the representation of women and racial and ethnic minorities. This will allow the researchers to study differences across space (states), as well as differences by race and gender.

This project will provide estimates of the impact of prospective merger reviews on antitrust enforcement actions, product prices, input prices, output, investment, and research and development. Using administrative data collected through taxation, employment, and antitrust provision, the project exploits the introduction of a premerger notification policy in Chile to see how it changed the types of mergers being agreed to. The result will help policymakers understand how much notification systems have a deterrent impact. Prospective merger reviews constitute a large share of antitrust enforcement expenditures, and yet little work has systematically studied its effectiveness. By providing a comprehensive study across industries using detailed data on real economic variables, this project could provide invaluable insights into the effects of mergers in both input and output markets, the impact of notification requirements, and the resource allocation within enforcement agencies.