This project investigates the causal effects of discriminatory assessment practices introduced by the New Deal-era federal agency, the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation. Specifically, the two researchers plan to examine HOLC’s systematic evaluation of neighborhoods and the maps it produced based on credit risk. Research has already led to the understanding that HOLC practices were a type of institutional discrimination. Data collected by the two researchers show that in 1930, about 86 percent of Black Americans lived in areas deemed hazardous (denoted in red on the maps, hence the term “redlining”) while almost 98 percent of the population in higher-rated areas was White. This research will measure how grade assignments affected the evolution of home values, income composition, and residential segregation in the short run and the long run. They will tackle the question by exploiting the fact that only cities over a certain population threshold were affected by the program. They will utilize a machine-learning algorithm to compare redlined neighborhoods with those that would have been redlined had the city been large enough to be affected by the program.

There is a significant racial divide in homeownership, as well as wealth, in the United States. In 2018, 73 percent of White householders owned their homes, compared to only 42 percent of Black householders, and the typical White household owned 20 times as much wealth as the typical Black household. A number of factors may explain this disparity, but one key contributor is the positive association between wealth and the ability of renters to transition to homeownership. This project will consider nonparental family members as potential sources of financial assistance to prospective homeowners. Utilizing the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Bucknor will measure household wealth, parental wealth, grandparental wealth, and extended-family wealth, including businesses owned, transaction accounts, real estate, stocks, vehicles, home equity, and other assets, minus all debts. This research is poised to add to our understanding of intergenerational transmission of wealth and the far-reaching impacts of structural racism, and give insight into policies that may be effective in addressing persistent racial wealth inequality.

This project will use longitudinal data from two states to explore racial disparities in access to family child care centers by looking at rates of homeownership and disparities in homeownership by race. Family child care centers—licensed child care centers located within an operator’s home—make up a declining but still substantial proportion of the supply of formal child care. There are many obstacles to licensing a family child care center in a rental property, so areas with low rates of homeownership may experience a lack of access to this often more affordable child care option. Family child care centers also tend to have more flexible hours, making them especially valuable for parents working irregular or unpredictable schedules. Borowsky will conduct a market-definition analysis intended to approximate regions of common demand and supply. He will then evaluate the extent to which low rates of homeownership in a region are associated with low supply of family child care centers.

Central banks across the developed world are reconsidering their monetary policy frameworks and are frequently looking to academic research to inform the question of whether to stick with the dominant paradigm of inflation targeting or to adopt a new monetary policy regime. To address this question, Halperin and Caratelli will build a model where price stickiness is modeled in a substantially more realistic way, compared to other models, in order to explore whether it is optimal for central banks to use nominal income targeting rather than inflation targeting. The two researchers will examine whether nominal income targeting would mean that central banks would not have to tighten policy in response to strong wage growth, which could boost equitable growth.

There is increasing evidence of monopsony power in labor markets, with implications of lower wages and higher inequality. One popular policy recommendation is to constrain such monopsony power through more organized unions of workers, such as in local bargaining councils—collections of trade unions and employers representing specific industry-regions that consultatively bargain over and set minimum wages and working conditions for those industry-regions. This project will study the effect of such “sectoral bargaining” using South African data. Using matched employer-employee tax data from the South African Revenue Service, Bassier will match these agreements to firms as demarcated by industry and location. There are currently 39 legally recognized bargaining councils in South Africa, each covering a specific industry-region. Bargaining councils are estimated to cover 40 percent of workers in the formal sector in South Africa, concentrated mainly in the manufacturing, construction, trade, and transport industries in addition to covering the public sector. This research could give insight into how sectoral bargaining could improve worker power and mitigate the effects of monopsonistic labor markets.

This project examines how increasing labor market polarization affects the transmission of monetary policy. Specifically, Morrison will examine how heterogeneity in worker substitutability with capital affects the role the labor market plays in the transmission of monetary policy. The research will estimate the importance of a heterogeneous worker-capital substitutability channel of monetary policy—investment spurred by monetary policy will have muted effects on aggregate consumption if workers whose labor is complementary with capital tend to have lower marginal propensities to consume. To investigate this phenomenon, she first plans to build and solve a model that captures this effect, then estimate the impulse-response functions of wages of workers in various skill categories to unexpected expansionary monetary shocks.