In conversation with Michael Strain

“Equitable Growth in Conversation” is a recurring series where we talk with economists and other social scientists to help us better understand whether and how economic inequality affects economic growth and stability.

In this installment, Equitable Growth’s Executive Director and Chief Economist Heather Boushey talks with Michael R. Strain, the John G. Searle Scholar and the director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, about the importance of government data collection for our democracy and our understanding of the U.S. economy over time and into the future.

[Editor’s note: This conversation took place on April 30, 2018.]

Heather Boushey: Michael Strain, thank you so much for being here today. This is just great.

Michael Strain: I’m very happy to be here.

Boushey: I want to get right into the questions I want to ask you today. You write a lot about about government data collection with Diane Schanzenbach, the director of the Institute for Policy Research and Margaret Walker Alexander Professor of Human Development and Social Policy at Northwestern University. And you say that working on data together is a small investment with a big payoff. Can you explain that? What’s the payoff of government data? Who’s using it? What are they getting out of it? Explain to me why you and Diane think it’s a big bang for the buck.

Strain: It’s a big bang for the buck for two reasons. One is the cost of mistakes. Think about what government data are used for by policymakers. The Federal Reserve, for example, looks at information on unemployment, looks at information on price inflation, and then tries to decide what to do with interest rates. Or consider Social Security benefits, which are adjusted by policymakers based on a price index that the government produces. If the price index or if the unemployment rate are measured with a little bit of error, then Social Security benefits could be too low, or they could be too high, or the Fed could tighten too early, or the Fed could tighten too late.

When you consider how large a check the federal government writes for Social Security benefits every month, when you figure how important interest rate decisions are to private businesses, those small errors really add up. And they really result in big expenditures for Social Security, big macroeconomic effects. So, when you compare the cost of producing those statistics to the cost of errors—even small errors—then the cost-benefit really works out such that you want those data to be as accurate as possible.

The other big bang for the buck is that businesses use government data to decide what items to put on the shelves by using information about the demography of their local customer base. Businesses use government data to decide where to open distribution centers, where to open warehouses, and where to open new stores, and where to do all sorts of things. Businesses are just constantly relying on data. So, relative to a lot of things the government does, data are pretty cheap to produce, and we might as well do it right.

Boushey: I understand you wrote that the amount of money that the federal government spends on government statistical agencies is about one-fifth of 1 percent of the federal budget. That’s not a lot. Is that your understanding of what the number is?

Strain: Yes, it’s not a lot.

Boushey: It’s really small. I often think of the weather services, right? All of the data that we have on what’s going on with the weather is coming from government data and satellites. We are getting it through all of these private entities that are, maybe, presenting it in prettier graphics or ways that we can understand, but you need to have that data accurate for us to make good decisions about what to wear in the morning.

Strain: Yes, and that’s a good example of how much government data kind of intersect with our day-to-day lives in ways that we may not even know. A lot of people pull up an app on their phone every morning to see what the weather’s going to be. But not that many people who are doing that really understand that the Federal Statistical System is what’s allowing that information to be possible.

Boushey: So, my next question. Why should this be a government function rather than a private-sector function? After all, the private sector produces a lot of data from the club card at the grocery store or the drug store when it tracks all of your purchases or your bank or whatnot. And there’s some overlap with what private-sector entities do and what government statistical agencies do and what academics do. So, why is it that having government data is so important?

Strain: Certainly, the data revolution from private-sector businesses is great. And all that data is a really important complement to the data that are produced by the government—a positive development for both researchers and businesses especially. But I think looking at data that are generated by private businesses as a complement to government statistics, rather than as a substitute for government statistics, is the right way to look at it.

The data that government produces are designed to be nationally representative. You want to know what the unemployment rate is for the U.S. economy as a whole. You want to know what’s happening to the prices that a representative consumer is facing in the aggregate. That’s not what private businesses are doing. They want to know about their customer base; they want to know about their potential customer base. The data they’re gathering are often gathered as a part of doing business, and so they are just not directly comparable.

In addition, part of the design of some of these government datasets is based on the desire to be able to make comparisons over long periods of time. You want to be able to ask, “What is the median income in 2018?” and then be able to compare that to median income in 1998. And to be able to have that comparison be meaningful, you need to make sure you’re measuring the same thing over time. Private businesses just aren’t in a position to have that as a goal, and that wouldn’t be a good goal for them, for the most part.

So, there are important functions that government data serve that are not well-served by the kind of efforts that private businesses engage in when they’re kind of creating all this data. But, again, they’re complementary. And they’re both important.

Boushey: If the president made you data czar for a day, give me a couple of places where you would focus to make government data collection better, more comprehensive?

Strain: I think the most immediate need right now is making sure that the 2020 decennial census is adequately funded and is as successful as we need it to be, which may seem like a weird answer when you’re thinking about immediate need since it’s now 2018. But it really does take many years of planning and preparation to execute a successful decennial census. The census is not a standard government survey, where you pick 20,000 or 200,000 households. This is an exercise that requires everybody to be counted. If you don’t fill out the form online or fill out the pencil-and-paper form and mail it back in, then the government has to send somebody to your house with a clipboard. That’s the extent to which the government takes this seriously.

And it should be taken seriously because it’s required by the Constitution. It’s how we apportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives across the states, among other functions. Because it’s an enumeration, because everybody’s counted, the decennial census is used as a benchmark for many, many, many other government data products. And so, if there are errors in the decennial census, we live with those for 10 more years. Because we benchmark other government surveys against the census data, if the census data are wrong, then the benchmark’s wrong—and the other surveys are wrong, too.

So, we have to make sure this is adequately funded. We have to make sure the census has the resources it needs. If part of being a data czar means I get to appoint a head of the Census Bureau, I would do that, too. Because, currently, there is not a head of the Census Bureau.

Boushey: I could not agree with you more that this is just absolutely mission critical. You wrote a piece on this, and in your very first paragraph, you talk about how it’s required by the Constitution, Article I, Section 2.

Strain: That’s right.

Boushey: And that data are used for so many things. How can you know how many people should be in House districts, or other state and local districts, if you don’t have a good count of the people? Every year, hundreds of billions of dollars of federal funding is given to the states based on population. And those population estimates come from the decennial census.

Strain: Even in addition to all of that—which is, obviously, critically important to the functioning of our democracy—there are just all sorts of downstream ramifications to making sure that the 2020 census is as accurate as it can be. And it’s not receiving the amount of attention that I think it should. And in part that’s because it’s two years away, and in Washington anything that’s more than three days away is in the distant future. But this really is such a big undertaking that it really does require years and years of planning.

Boushey: A big part of this undertaking is going out into the field and making sure that the technology works, and that people know how to ask the right questions. But because of funding issues this year, they were supposed to do four tests but they’re only going to do one. Which, as a researcher, makes me a little anxious. And I understand they’re using new technology this year—they’re going totally online.

Strain: That’s one of the reasons why we need those end-to-end tests, to see if people are actually comfortable doing that. If the Census Bureau decides, “OK, this group of people, for whatever reason, are going to be more likely to respond online, so we’re going to send them the online-only version” and half of them don’t respond, then the bureau can’t just say, “Oh, OK, we tried.” The bureau has to send the paper-and-pencil version; it has to send somebody to these people’s houses. And that’s when you start racking up the expenses and the amount of taxpayer dollars you need. If we spend a little more money now, we’ll probably save money on the total cost conducting the census.

Boushey: That’s the second time you’ve mentioned that part of what we’re looking at with the data issues is making smart investments and doing the right thing up front so that we’re not paying more in the end. I think that’s a really important theme. I would also note that the previous time we did the census in 2010, it was in the middle of the Great Recession. And so a lot of people needed jobs, so it was easier, probably, to find census-takers than it would be now, when we’re closer to full employment. I don’t know if they’ll have to pay more for that, but I would imagine that getting people to go out there with pen and paper is going to be more expensive or harder to find people than before.

Strain: Yes, that could be the case.

Boushey: Another thing that could drag down the number of people who are responding is this new addition that the Department of Commerce decided to add, a question asking respondents if they’re citizens. You’ve written that this would damage the accuracy of the census. I want you to walk us through that argument. But first, I would like to preface it with a story about why my housemate in NewYork City in 2000 refused to fill out the census form because he was concerned about privacy. At the time, I was a researcher and I was using census data, so I asked, “What are you talking about? Why are you so anxious about doing this?” He had a college degree, had a good job, was not an immigrant, so there was no reason for him to be afraid, and yet he was. And it really struck me how hard it is to communicate to people that they should hand over their information to the government.

Strain: The best place to start is with what’s actually on the form. It’s very basic information. It’s a very short form, basic questions such as “How many people live in this home? What are their ages? What are their sexes?” Very, very basic stuff that your neighbors probably know about you just by observing you. The point is to count the population and make sure that we know how many people there are in the United States.

Even given how simple and basic that is, every 10 years, members of immigrant communities and members of certain minority communities get a little spooked by the prospect of handing over this basic information to the government—especially when the information is requested in person, which is what happens when you don’t fill out the initial form. And when the Census Bureau was out conducting some interviews trying to prepare for the 2020 census, it discovered that although during a typical year there’s some anxiety those communities, in 2017, there was much, much more anxiety among immigrants and among certain minority communities. It’s not hard to understand why. There’s a lot of really ugly rhetoric coming out of D.C. about immigrants, including from the president of the United States, both after he took office and, of course, while he was was a candidate. And so there’s this kind of atmosphere out there that makes people reluctant to fill out the form.

For people who use government data all the time for their research, that reaction may seem odd. But I think there’s no denying that it’s the case. Add on a really sensitive question about whether you’re a citizen, and the concern that I have—and that many others have—is that that’s going to really spike the anxiety level. Some members of these immigrant communities and these minority communities are already feeling more reluctant to answer the questions, or will answer the questions inadequately out of concern for their privacy, or whatever. But because of the way that immigrants have been discussed by top elected leaders, including the president, it’s understandable why it would be even more of an issue this time around.

Boushey: So, if it does turn out that the citizenship question depresses response rates among certain groups, what are the practical implications?

Strain: Well, it’ll end up costing more money because it means more people have to be hired to go and knock on doors.

Boushey: Last question. One of the things that we do here at Equitable Growth is that we are a grantmaking institution. We’ve funded about 130 scholars nationwide at universities and given away almost $3 million now, over the past almost-five years. As you’re thinking about these issues around data and data collection, what advice would you have for us? Is there any particular issue areas or kinds of data that you think we should be investigating or spending more of our resources to understand or work on?

Strain: We have a statistical system that’s kind of built around a 20th century economy. So, to the extent that you are figuring out ways to update this statistical system to account for the way that we live and work now would be important. But more importantly, to account for the ways that we might live and work 20 years from now, to really have a plan to have statistically valid surveys that capture the information that we want to capture is, I think, a very worthy research program.

Boushey: Thank you. This has been just illuminating. I really appreciate your time.

Strain: Thank you.

In conversation with Richard Reeves

“Equitable Growth in Conversation” is a recurring series where we talk with economists and other social scientists to help us better understand whether and how economic inequality affects economic growth and stability.

In this installment, Equitable Growth’s Senior Director for Family Economic Security and Senior Fellow Elisabeth Jacobs talks with Richard Reeves, senior fellow in Economic Studies and co-director of the Center on Children and Families at The Brookings Institution and most recently the author of Dream Hoarders: How the American Upper Middle Class Is Leaving Everyone Else in the Dust, Why That Is a Problem, and What to Do About It (2017).

[Editor’s note: This conversation took place on October 11, 2017.]

Elisabeth Jacobs: Let’s jump right in, Richard. Who are the dream hoarders?

Richard Reeves: I define them in two ways. One, they are the people at the top of the income distribution who are essentially the winners of the inequality divide in our country, who have risen to the top over the past three or four decades. They are, in my view, the top 20 percent roughly of the income distribution. That means they earn healthy six-figure household incomes, with average incomes of about $200,000 a year.

This is where I see the divide between the bottom 80 percent and the top 20 percent. But then, more specifically, I identify some behaviors among those at the top of the distribution that I think amount to kind of a form of hoarding. In other words, they are kind of overconsuming, or unfairly consuming, some goods or services that actually give them a leg up or give their kids a leg up in a way that perpetuates the inequality that they are currently benefiting from.

Jacobs: What kinds of goods and services?

Reeves: Education and housing are at the top of my list, and the way that they kind of interact with each other. Think about the way the geography of our cities now reflects economic inequality. There has been a slight drop in racial segregation from very high levels but an increase in economic segregation between neighborhoods, between different areas. I think that’s true at the top, as well as the bottom of the income distribution too. So, we are seeing those who are affluent, the top 20 percent and above, separate themselves off into different neighborhoods, which means they can access education resources such as Kindergarten through grade 12 education, and then use local zoning laws to protect the neighborhoods and the land in those neighborhoods from incursions by those who are of more modest economic backgrounds.

That’s all subsidized through the federal mortgage interest deduction. If you want to think about the way in which money buys opportunity and therefore perpetuates inequality, the interaction between the income trends and earning trends, the residential segregation of neighborhoods, the way that education is provided and local zoning laws and regulation of land—they all interact with each other in a way that effectively means the federal government subsidizes me in an expensive neighborhood in an area with great schools. I can then defend against anybody else using unfair exclusionary zoning laws. And my kids therefore get to go to a good public high school and live in a relatively affluent neighborhood.

Jacobs: Why do you think this happened?

Reeves: It’s the combination of millions of small decisions. I think that what happened was that we’ve seen growing labor-market inequality, which combined with inequalities in family formation and family structure and, using a stunningly unromantic phrase, assortative mating, has led to even greater household income inequality. That money, in a society where money matters so much, has been able to be readily transferred into other kinds of advantages, including wealth, including housing, and including access to education.

So, you can see the how. The question then is why, and I think you have to talk about incentives, and the particular incentives of those who are doing well to protect their own position and to protect the position of their children. And I think there is inequality and class perpetuation that really speak to each other.

One of the things I think more strongly now than when I even wrote the book is that actually it’s a long way down from the upper-middle class. It’s a long way down. And the stakes are higher because actually dropping from the 90th to the 50th percentile of income doesn’t look very good down there.

Jacobs: Right.

Reeves: So, being in the middle or lower than that in the United States has dramatic consequences for other things such as access to health care, access to housing, and access to your kids’ education. So it’s both farther to fall and a harder landing, which means the upper 20 percent are highly incentivized to use every means at their disposal to protect their position and the position of their children, and if there are tools available to do that, even if they become exclusionary and unfair, they are highly incentivized at an individual level to use everything, every tool at their disposal. And individually that’s kind of rational, and in some ways sort of justifiable because of this fear of falling, as [author and activist] Barbara Ehrenreich phrases it.

Fear of falling is a really great phrase. The worse inequality gets, the greater the incentives among upper-middle class households to prevent downward mobility and protect their position. The more successfully they do that, the worse inequality gets. I think one other thing that’s important as to why it happens is the more separate these households become, the more their reference point for what counts as rich or affluent changes. It gets distorted because they tend to use local reference points. And it’s much easier to convince yourself you’re not very rich, even if you are in the 95th percentile, if everyone who you know is in the 98th percentile.

This “I’m not rich” problem is getting worse because they are seeing people who are segregated by neighborhood, by institution, by occupation, by marriage, and essentially spending their time more and more with people like themselves or wealthier than themselves. And that actually increases the fear of failure because you don’t see yourself as the winner because you’re always looking up.

This creates real problems as a political way of thinking because it does encourage those who are maybe not quite in the top 1 percent, earning $400,000 or more, to say “I’m not rich. I’m not rich.” Everyone wants to tax the rich, and no one thinks they are rich. And that’s another side effect of economic inequality when it becomes physical, becomes corporal, is incorporated into our neighborhoods and our institutions—so incorporated that it has these huge effects of reference point bias and insulation from what’s really going on. This institutionalization of inequality in the various ways that I’ve talked about speaks to this class divide, and that most troubles me. To me, this speaks to the kind of infantilized debate about inequality, where it’s much easier to stop eating avocado toast than it is to talk about the fundamental problems of the wage distribution.

Jacobs: Part of the problem, too, is the connection between this “I’m not rich” effect and the provision of public services and public goods. Underlying your argument about the separation of classes is that society today doesn’t actually have a unified sense of public goods and have a floor for the quality of public goods in this country.

Reeves: One argument for public goods is it de-risks downward mobility, it lowers the stakes about your own position and the position of your children, and therefore somewhat blunts the incentives to do absolutely everything in your power to protect your position. You can’t get that desperate because the stakes are little bit lower. Therefore, people in the upper-middle class will pull back a bit, be persuaded that actually they need to give up a little bit, and it’s not the end of the world.

Still, for the top 20 percent of households, it does feel like a long way down. When people in the upper-income neighborhood I live in obsess about their kids getting into a good college, and I tend to say, “Relax already,” and they say, “No, it’s different now.” And what they say, it’s because the Chinese are coming, or robots, or whatever—they point to this much more competitive world. But actually I think it is different now, but in a different way. It’s different now because the stakes are higher—that actually failing to get a good start in the labor market will have kind of tougher consequences.

The other thing it speaks to, and you’ve written about this yourself, is the growing importance of human capital of various forms in terms of the labor market. It means you’ve got to do better earlier now. It doesn’t feel as if, well, if you don’t do so well now, then maybe you don’t do so well in college, but you can catch up later. I think the labor market can still do that, but my sense is that it doesn’t do it as effectively as it did before. Unless you hit the labor market with a decent running start in the labor market—and that means increasingly certain qualifications, credentials, human capital, and so on—it’s just tougher to succeed than it was before.

I am making it personal because I think inequality is more personal, that some people are willing to accept as a necessary first step toward saying, “Oh, well, in that case, maybe we do need to do more redistribution. Maybe things aren’t as fair. Maybe actually I could give up a bit more as a necessary first step towards doing that.”

Jacobs: You say in your book that you believe in meritocracy for adults but not for kids. Which is like halfway there, right, but like you still believe in meritocracy for adults?

Reeves: Well, I still basically believe in the market for adults. That invites some criticism from the left, too, because I think the other things being equal, a sort of reasonably freely functioning labor market tends to be relatively meritocratic. I think it has helped to overcome historic prejudices of various kinds, based on gender and race, though there’s still a long way to go. It’s like the alternative to democracy, it’s better than the alternatives.

The idea that social engineers can start deciding that person A is worth more than person B, I think, flies in the face of the evidence of human capital skills. The things that are rewarded in the market tend to be rewarded in the market. It doesn’t mean you can’t then do more to distribute market rewards, but I quite like that. What I don’t like is the fact that the preparation for the market is so uneven. Once the market starts to kick in, it does its thing. So, broadly, the reason why kids of the upper-middle class go on to do so well is not because, by and large, the labor market discriminates wildly in their favor. It does discriminate, but not wildly. It’s because they are chock-full of human capital and skills and credentials, soft skills, hard skills, you name it. They are pretty awesome in the labor market.

The problem is, the idea of meritocracy creeps into childhood. There is selection into our education institutions, even selection into our high schools. That leads to thinking that, well, the brighter kids should get the greater resources, they should get more opportunities. So, the idea of meritocracy kicks in quite early. And if anything, education should be antimeritocratic. If the goal is to equalize the contest, then we need to think about it completely differently and then have the contest.

The other criticism from the left is the top 1 percent. But if one looks at how much real income growth has gone to the 1 percent, and if one uses the share of growth and income accruing to the 1 percent to illustrate the point, then one can produce this amazing chart and say, “This is wrong.” But it’s not just that 1 percent. Some people say, “No, that’s ridiculous, it’s not the top 20 percent, it’s much more like 15 percent, maybe 10 percent.” I say, “Fine, okay, great, big deal.” I’ll take it. I would like to cut the upper-middle income distribution a little bit broader, but I’ll take 10 percent or 15 percent because at least that level is just the 1 percent.

Some people do genuinely still think it is just the top 1 percent who define inequality in the United States. They still have to deal with the fact that individuals and families are moving in and out of the 1 percent quite a lot, but they do still think that that’s the real fracture. There are two kinds of inequality here. There’s a kind of plutocratic inequality and a bourgeois inequality. I think both can be true. You can have the kind of pulling away, not just among the top 1 percent but also the top 0.1 percent. I think within the top 1 percent, there are many who get upset about the 0.1 percent. The 0.1 percent get upset at the 0.01 percent. Every time you add the zero, you just move the class wall a few notches up. The people who fly commercial versus the people who fly first class, and the people who fly on private jets versus the ones who have got their own planes. No matter how high you go, you can always kind of find a class fracture. I don’t think we can just do it on the basis of the top 1 percent.

But in my book, I also examine the danger of the classic “born on third-base thinking you’ve hit a triple” problem. I choose a few examples that get into problems such as legacy preferences in education or the way neighborhoods are zoned or how internships are secured. Because all of that looks like cheating to me. I’m trying to interrupt what I think is a complacent narrative that’s there on the conservative right, which is just, well, they are just amazing people and they are not doing anything wrong.

Jacobs: You talk a lot about legacy admissions, internships, occupational licensing, and exclusionary zoning. Say a little bit more about that and about why you highlighted those.

Reeves: Some of my suggestions about restructuring the financing of higher education, more access to health care, family planning, restructuring K–12, are all highly important and totally unoriginal. There is a vast literature on all of those. We know what need to do. The problem is that we can’t do it. And the reason we can’t do it is because the upper-middle class has convinced themselves that they don’t need to give anything up and that things are hunky-dory, basically. Or they have subcontracted it all out to more distant institutions. They don’t have to do anything personally. I’m trying to interrupt that narrative.

Take the most trivial problem—legacy preferences—and there’s a trivial objection to that, which is made all the time. People say, oh, it won’t make any difference. Great, let’s do it then. So, let’s do that and move on. If it really won’t make any difference, then why are you so worried about it? Why is everyone so troubled about it if it won’t make any difference?

I think the conversation about inequality has to be uncomfortable, and legacy preference is one example of that. It’s outrageous, it’s racist, it’s outdated, it’s a national embarrassment. So you might say, well, if you win that, so what? I would say, if I can’t convince the top of the upper-middle class, these affluent, well-educated liberal Americans that it’s unfair to have a hereditary principle operating in college admissions, then I think the chance of radically transforming the financing of higher education basically is zero.

Jacobs: I’m going to ask one more question. I think the relationship between inequality and mobility is at the heart of what you are getting at. But I think in the American story, race and class are fundamentally interwoven. So, I’m curious how you reflect on that, why you spent so little time on it in the book, whether that was an intentional choice.

Reeves: One of the reasons why that is not a big part of this book is because I am focused on the upper-middle class, the top 20 percent, who remain predominantly white, and are actually whiter than the general population today than they were a few years ago. However, I do think, and I wish now in retrospect that I had said more about the tools that are used to perpetuate class inequality—tools that are racist in origin and remain racist in practice, even if not legally sanctioned.

So, that’s why I’m doing more work now on exclusionary zoning. If you live in a relatively affluent neighborhood, then you don’t have to do that much to change the zoning rules. The status quo favors you anyway. It’s much harder to change things than it is just keep things as they are. And one of the reasons things are the way they are is because of the legacy of racist zoning laws and redlining and so on, which is now being sort of repurposed, I think, to perpetuate class, which again still has racist consequences, even if it is not on its face racist.

I now think there is more to the interaction between the two than I thought. The hardest question, and I think we should stop on the hardest question, is from Hispanic or African American upper-middle class families who ask me, “Do you think that if I am black or Hispanic and I have made it to the upper-middle class, I shouldn’t do everything to help my kids remain there?” That’s one of the hardest questions I’ve had to answer. Because the honest answer is, well, no, I don’t think it is the same. There is a different salience there, and there is a much greater risk of downward mobility for black kids anyway.

Jacobs: We could keep on talking until tomorrow, but you’re right to end on the hardest question.

Reeves: All great questions. Thank you.

In conversation with Kimberly Clausing

“Equitable Growth in Conversation” is a recurring series where we talk with economists and other social scientists to help us better understand whether and how economic inequality affects economic growth and stability.

In this installment, Equitable Growth’s Executive Director and Chief Economist Heather Boushey talks with Kimberly A. Clausing, the Thormund A. Miller and Walter Mintz Professor of Economics at Reed College. They discuss tax reform, changes to the corporate income tax, and who gains when taxes on capital are cut.

[Editor’s note: This conversation took place on Monday, September 25, 2017.]

Heather Boushey: Hi, Kim. Welcome! This is so great to have you here today.

Kimberly Clausing: I’m happy to be here.

Boushey: I’m going to get right into it. The White House recently released some more guidance [previews of the Administration’s Unified Framework] on its tax plans but not really anything specific. The ball is now with Congress, so I’m going to try and keep this conversation at a high level.

Often here in Washington, D.C., when the economic policymaking community talks about taxes, it’ll say that the federal government needs to change the tax rate and broaden the base, increasing the amount of income that is taxed. So, when it comes to the corporate tax, what in your view actually needs to be fixed? Is it the tax rate or is it the base?

Clausing: I think the tax rate is important for some companies, but companies in the United States pay a lot of different tax rates, and for some of them, effective tax rates are very low. For the big multinational companies, the federal statutory rate [of 35 percent] bears little resemblance to what they’re actually paying. And many of those big companies have even gone on the record in saying that they don’t care primarily about the statutory tax rate; they care more about other things. But many smaller companies that pay closer to the statutory rate do care a lot about the rate.

One of the really interesting features of our business landscape today is that there’s a lot of concentration of activity and profit at the very top of business ladder, just like there’s a concentration of income at the very top of our income distribution. If you look at the top 1 percent of corporate returns, big corporations account for the vast majority of all the profit, more than 90 percent. And those firms are disproportionally multinational, and they’re disproportionately likely to have profits derived from intangibles assets. And these companies are able to reduce their tax burdens in part by shifting income out of the United States toward other countries. And my work suggests such profit shifting is presently costing the U.S. government more than $100 billion each year in lost tax revenue.

So, I think good corporate-tax reform could both lower the tax rate and increase the tax base, and that would please economists and policy wonks. But it’s not clear that the corporate community is driven by both of those objectives.

Boushey: Tell me a little bit more of why so many of those firms at the top of distribution do not pay the statutory rate.

Clausing: Some of the base narrowing comes from simple things such as the research and experimentation tax credit, the production activities deduction, and other various provisions that lower the tax rate. But the biggest driver is international profit shifting.

Companies such as General Electric Co., for instance, have used the rules of our tax system to move income that really should be in the U.S. tax base to other jurisdictions—often in tax-havens. As a consequence, their effective tax rates are often in the single-digits. In General Electric’s case, its effective rate is nearly zero over the past decade or so here in the United States. Yet the company is still earning billions of dollars over that period throughout the world. It’s just that most of the income is being artificially moved offshore. And so, when you look at its taxes paid on U.S. income, it’s quite low.

Boushey: As we broaden the base, are there ways to do this so that we get around that problem?

Clausing: Yes. There are a couple of things that policymakers could do. For instance, one of the largest tax expenditures in the business area is deferral, which is this idea that you don’t have to pay U.S. tax on your foreign income until it’s repatriated. The companies that benefit from this want to remove that repatriation tax entirely and create a super-highway of tax avoidance where there’s no speed limit and you can simply shift profits to the islands [tax havens such as the Cayman Islands or Bermuda] and never worry about the U.S. government taxing it.

But a more effective way to proceed would be to still tax that income. We can combine taxation of foreign income with a lower rate (and a tax credit for foreign taxes paid), but we’ll actually collect the tax due at that lower rate. On a revenue-neutral basis, policymakers could probably lower the corporate tax rate to about 25 or 26 percent, get rid of deferral, and end up with the same amount of revenue. Basically, what would happen is that tax revenue would go up for the multinational firms that are shifting their income out of the U.S. tax base, and tax revenue would fall for domestic companies that aren’t using these techniques, and those two effects would cancel out.

Now, that approach is extremely unpopular with the multinational business community. One option short of that idea, but still moving in that direction, would be a per-country minimum tax, where you basically limit U.S. taxation of foreign income to countries with very low tax rates. So, if a multinational firm earns income in a tax-haven jurisdiction such as Switzerland or Luxembourg, then the United States applies a minimum tax as the income is earned. If these big firms’ profits haven’t been taxed substantially abroad, then the U.S. federal government reserves the right to tax it at some other rate.

The Obama administration championed this sort of per-country minimum tax regime, suggesting a minimum tax rate of 19 percent, but it wasn’t very popular with the business community. From its perspective, whatever tax rate is chosen for the minimum tax, it will still be a lot higher than zero. So, there are going to be political problems getting that idea through Congress. Still, it is a promising approach.

Boushey: Walk us through this kind of international profit shifting. What’s the scale? Is this the biggest problem we need to solve? Are there other problems that are just as big or is this one above and beyond any other?

Clausing: I think that this is the biggest tax base problem on the corporate side. My estimates suggest this costs the U.S. government about $100 billion a year, which is pretty big.

Boushey: You could invest in a lot of infrastructure with that.

Clausing: Yes, and there are other ways that our corporate tax base has eroded. Look at the interest deductibility provisions, for instance. Those imply that many companies actually face a negative corporate tax rate on debt financed investments, which also lowers tax revenues in the business sector. Also, there is the lost tax revenue from pass-through income, which also is calculated to cost about $100 billion from the domestic side of business income. There’s a nice study by eight economists, five from the U.S. Treasury Department, that shows that the average tax rate paid by pass-throughs is 19 percent, which is far lower than the statutory corporate rate.

Boushey: One of the arguments that you hear time and time again for why Congress needs to reduce the corporate tax rate is that doing so will boost investment in overall economic growth. Tell us a little bit about how strongly investment would react to a reduction in the tax rate at the corporate side?

Clausing: On the corporate side, there are a couple of considerations to keep in mind. One is that the distribution of corporate income within the tax base is highly skewed, with about three-quarters of it due to excess profits or rents. What are excess profits or rents? Well, there’s a normal return of capital, which enables a company to pay the interest costs or the equity costs of raising capital, but any income earned above that normal return is an excess profit.

For those firms that have a lot of excess profits—the Googles and Apples and General Electrics of the world—they are earning more than we normally expect for business activity. It’s not clear that giving them a windfall is going to lead to new investments. They already have more than enough after-tax profits from which to make investments.

If policymakers believe more after-tax profits are the way to suddenly spur investment, we might ask why it hasn’t already happened, since these kinds of firms are sitting on piles of cash. It’s unclear that giving them a bigger pile of cash is going to spur investment. We need companies to have desirable investments. And often what’s stopping them is not the absence of funds, but the absence of viable investments they want to make. If policymakers really think after-tax profits are what’s needed to drive investment, then we should already be in an investment nirvana, since lately we’ve had much higher profits than we’ve ever had in the past 50 years of our history.

Boushey: And yet our investment rate is quite low right now.

Clausing: Right. That’s why I don’t think after-tax profits are the answer.

Boushey: When talking to business owners, there is a wide range of things that drive their investment decisions—everything from consumer demand or where they sit in the supply chain or the quality of infrastructure around them that makes it possible to leverage their investment. Is there anything that you want to add to that list?

Clausing: When you get into tax reform debates, the business community acts as if tax is the only thing that drives its competitiveness, whereas investment decisions and competitiveness are really driven by a lot of other factors. Infrastructure, the education of the workforce, the health of the middle class—these are all crucial things for business success and competitive businesses. And, from a policy perspective, it is likely more important to focus on these factors than on making after-tax profits that are already historically high even higher. And funding education and infrastructure requires government revenue.

So, at a minimum, policymakers should pursue revenue-neutral reform, but there’s actually a case for revenue-gaining reform right now. If you look in the next decade, we are going to have 2 percentage points of GDP in additional deficits because of our commitments to the baby boomer generation’s Medicare and Social Security benefits. Also, to expand business investment opportunities, the federal government needs to make investments in infrastructure and education and in a healthy middle class.

Also, right now the U.S. economy is amid a historically long expansion, which means we’re due for a recession before long. That in itself will drive up deficits, so this seems like a particularly poor time to reduce the revenue stream for all those reasons.

Boushey: If a tax reduction in the statutory rate isn’t going to do much to boost investment, explain to us how it will actually boost the wage of the workers. President Trump and the Republican leaders in Congress claim that tax reform will boost the middle class.

Clausing: They are relying on this idea that corporate tax cuts raise investments, which raise worker productivity, and then higher worker productivity translates into higher wages. You’ll notice several things have to happen for corporate tax cuts to cause a wage increase, and each step entails some faith and some luck.

Start with the fact that the corporate tax base is mostly excess profits, so we’re not sure that extra profits are going to stir extra investment. But even if it did serve to boost investment, that would still have to translate into a wage increase for workers. The evidence on this point is pretty thin on the ground. There is some evidence from Europe that if companies with excess profits receive tax cuts, they’ll share those with their workers, but that’s not the same as causing a wage increase for workers as a whole. If policymakers give Google a big tax cut and Google employees get paid more, that’s nice for the Google employees but it’s not necessarily helping the workers in the economy as a whole.

And we have so many easier ways to help workers directly that it seems odd to rely on such an indirect mechanism. Extending the earned income tax credit is a great way to target the employment and wages at the bottom of the income distribution. Or how about giving the middle class a tax cut by lopping a couple of percentage points off the payroll tax? All of those would go straight to the workers. We have mechanisms in place already that target workers directly, so it seems odd to rely on this very indirect mechanism.

Boushey: So, it doesn’t seem like lowering the statutory tax rate is actually going to spur the kinds of investments that are going to get us to that point where productivity gains translate into higher wages for workers.

Clausing: There are better ways to target worker productivity structured around R&D investments, infrastructure investments, and education investments.

Boushey: My last questions. What’s a piece of research on this topic that doesn’t exist today that you would like to see, and what’s the question on business taxation you really wish we had more evidence on?

Clausing: I’d like to see a lot more research on the excess profits question. How important are excess profits in the modern picture of business activity? A lot of anecodotal data suggests this is a very important issue in today’s global economy, but I don’t think we have a clear picture of just how important.

I also think that there’s some promise in getting a better picture of profit-shifting behavior if we get access to better data on these questions. One of the things that the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] and the G-20 [Group of Twenty] has worked on is a “Base Erosion and Profit Shfiting” initiative. And one of their items for action is to improve the public access to data on profit shifting. For example, if there were more researcher access to tax data of multinational company earnings, we could get closer to figuring out what’s happening inside the multinational firms.

Also, another one of the recommendations of that OECD group is for country by country reporting, where firms would have to tell each country government where they are earning off their profits. And just by shedding light on what’s going on, this helps curtail some of the profit-shifting activities. And if we made that reporting public as well, it shines a light on the activities of the company. The companies themselves don’t want it—they make the argument that this will basically give away some of their business secrets. But you have to ask, why is how much income you’re booking in the Caymans a business secret? Isn’t that itself a problem?

And if you are really too embarrassed to admit to the public that 90 percent of the company’s income is being booked on an island, then don’t do that in the first place. So, I think there are ways to use corporate social responsibility motives and transparency. More information will help harness the power of consumers and workers and shareholders so that we can better allocate our purchasing and investment and employment decisions. So, I think that would be a minor step forward.

Boushey: To clarify something: So, all that money that’s sitting on those islands—is it literally just sitting there? Or is it being loaned out and invested in boosting economic capacity somewhere?

Clausing: It is being invested—in fact if you look at the data, about 50 percent of it is back in U.S. financial markets—so, you’re certainly allowed to make types of investments with this money. You’re not allowed to return it to your shareholders as dividends or share repurchases, but you can invest it in a financial institution, and that often makes the funds available to U.S. capital markets.

This repatriation issue is an important one because we are distorting repatriation decisions by having this repatriation tax. But I don’t think we’re dramatically changing the investments found in the United States. The companies that have profits abroad can borrow against them to finance any desired investment. And some of the money isn’t really truly abroad—it’s invested in U.S. assets. To the extent that U.S. investment opportunities are high, we will draw more of the capital into the United States regardless.

Boushey: Interesting.

Clausing: But there are still good reasons to get rid of that distortion—I think either ending deferral or the per-country minimum tax would be an important move in that direction. Of course, the territorial system gets rid of this distortion too, but then you run the risk of exacerbating our large profit-shifting problem unless you’re serious about base protection.

Boushey: I think we’re probably out of time. Thank you so much, Kim.

Clausing: You’re welcome. It was a pleasure talking with you.

In conversation with Joan Williams

“Equitable Growth in Conversation” is a recurring series where we talk with economists and other social scientists to help us better understand whether and how economic inequality affects economic growth and stability.

In this installment, Equitable Growth’s Research Director Elisabeth Jacobs talks to Joan Williams, distinguished professor of law, the University of California, Hastings Foundation chair, and director of the Center for WorkLife Law at the University of California, Hastings College of the Law. They talk about Williams’ book on the white working class.

Elisabeth Jacobs: I’m delighted to be here today with Joan Williams. Joan is one of the first academic grantees co-funded by Equitable Growth for her work with University of Chicago professor Susan Lambert on the business-side impacts of scheduling stability. But we are not here to talk about that today. We are instead here to talk about Joan’s new book, White Working Class: Overcoming Class Cluelessness in America, released by Harvard Business Review Press recently. I’d like to kick off the conversation with the question: Why did you write this book, knowing you are a work-life scholar?

Joan Williams: Well, I basically think of myself as a social inequality scholar. I’m chiefly known for my work on gender, but I have also done a lot of work on how the experience of gender bias differs by race. And I have studied social class for 40 years. I married into a white working-class family in 1978, so I have been thinking a lot about how to bridge what I call the class culture gap between the professional, managerial elite and the white working class.

Jacobs: You’ve chosen to write this book about the white working class for all kinds of reasons. But how many of the things in your book do you think are about the white working class per se, and how many of them are actually more broadly applicable to a very diverse working class? African American families have struggled with many of the challenges.

Williams: There are so many overlaps between the white working class and the working class of color. The need and intense desire for stable jobs that will yield a modest middle-class standard of living is not a white working-class thing, it’s something that appeals to nonelites of all races. That’s why it should be such a central concern for both political parties.

The culture wars reflect that there exist a very different set of cultural dispositions among elites and nonelites. Elites value artisanal coffee. Gender roles. Spiritualities. You name it. Among nonelites, the search is less for novelty than for stability, so nonelites of all races put a high value on institutions that anchor stability, including the military, religion, and family values.

All that produces cultural conflict, but it’s not between the elite and the white working class. It’s between the elite and everybody who’s not elite—poor and middle class of all races. The elites often talk disrespectfully of the cultural truths of nonelites—that’s one of things that’s coming back to bite society.

Jacobs: You talk a lot about how, for white working-class people, their social networks, their kin structures, their lives are very much place-based in a way that means that the expectation that people just move to better jobs and the sort of head-scratching by economists about “why don’t people just move to where the jobs are” doesn’t make a lot of sense, if you think about it in the context of people’s social-cultural lives.

From an economic perspective, it doesn’t make much sense, and I think your work is kind of answering why this decline in labor mobility and decline in economic dynamism in the United States might be an economic puzzle, but in some ways, the sociology of it answers the questions.

Williams: Elites have what are called entrepreneurial networks—wide circles of acquaintances that are often national, or even global. And that’s how 70 percent to 90 percent of professionals get jobs. Working-class and poor people typically have place-based clique networks of family, neighbors, and friends they’ve known forever. Nonelites rely on these clique networks to protect them from their disadvantaged market position, by providing childcare, elder care, and help with things such as home repairs.

So, for moving to make sense, nonelites need not only to find a better job; they need to find one that’s so much better that they come out ahead, despite the fact they now have to pay for childcare and elder care because no family is close enough to help out. Another reason nonelites are reluctant to move is that their social honor is not portable. I was just living in the Netherlands; all I had to do is say I am a law professor teaching at one of the leading Dutch universities for people to want to get to know me. I tell the story in my book about going back to a high school reunion in a working-class town, and having someone ask a former classmate what he did for a living. The classmate got very red and snapped, “I sell toilets!” If your job is inglorious, you want to stick around people who know you, and know that you’re a person to be reckoned with—not just a guy who sells toilets.

Another important point: If you’re working class, the people in the communities you’re moving to have the same kind of dense place-based networks you have—and they’re going to make sure that good jobs go to people in their networks, not to you. This is just the kind of erasure of the realities of people’s lives on the ground that, if I can say this respectfully, economists are so good at.

Jacobs: So, what do you do about that? You often speak about the need for upskilling through non-college-based credentialing and vocational education. But what do you do if people are in places where there aren’t jobs? You can upskill all you want, but if the jobs aren’t there, there’s still the question of how do you make the jobs show up?

Williams: We need a new education-to-employment system that builds alliances between community colleges, local universities, and unions that set up alliances with local businesses, some of them existing, some of them attracting new businesses, so that the businesses can depend on a steady supply of certificate-trained workers with the specific job skills that are needed for their jobs. The goal should be certificate programs that are far shorter than a four-year degree, offered on family-friendly schedules because workers will need to retrain not once, but often several times, for new jobs, as old jobs morph or disappear. This idea and many others come from a very important book out of a Markle Foundation working group, and the book is called America’s Moment, and the initiative is called Rework America. Part of the reason American politics has turned so bitter is that America did globalization wrong, resulting in the loss of many middle-class jobs. We need to do automation right.

Jacobs: That seems like a good note to wrap on. Thank you so much.

Williams: Thanks a lot. I appreciate it.

In conversation with Robert Solow

“Equitable Growth in Conversation” is a recurring series where we talk with economists and other social scientists to help us better understand whether and how economic inequality affects economic growth and stability.

In this installment, Equitable Growth’s Executive Director and Chief Economist Heather Boushey talks with Robert Solow, institute professor, emeritus, and professor of economics, emeritus, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Nobel laureate in economics; and a member of Equitable Growth’s Steering Committee.

Boushey: Thanks so much for joining this conversation, Robert. My first question is: What do you see as the three most important issues for the U.S. economy right now?

Solow: I think that the first two are the inequality issue, and I say two because there’s the numerical inequality, meaning the inequality of size and distribution of income, and then there’s the size and distribution of wealth and what to do about that. Is there any prayer for a more progressive tax system? Our current system is becoming less progressive as we sit here and eat, and so, could we make the tax system more progressive?

The second issue, I think, is the broader concept of equality. One of the things I’ve learned from the election is the sheer disaffection of so many, so many people. And I think part of that is that a lot of people feel that they’re being treated like dirt and they’re disaffected. They feel no responsibility for the enterprise they work for. I saw a New Yorker cartoon, maybe 15 years ago, of a man behind a desk obviously interviewing a possible hire, and the man behind the desk says, “We offer no loyalty at all, but we don’t expect any.”

And that is one of the things, I think, we need to think about. I don’t know whether policymakers can think about this, but they ought to be thinking about it. How do we restore some kind of representation of labor in firms?

Do you recall what Clark Kerr said?

Boushey: A name I’ve heard, yes.

Solow: Clark Kerr used to speak of the main product of collective bargaining not being wages but being what he called a web of rules. Standards of behavior. Who could do what to whom and who couldn’t do what to whom. I’d like to find some way of enlarging and improving the way workers, wage earners, are represented in their firms. Unions used to do that, but even with the best will in the world, you could not restore the trade union movement. If it’s true, what we all think, that the nature of workers changed, that people who work for many employers in different industries, and different occupations, really have changed, then neither the craft union nor the industrial union is the right policy vehicle.

But of course, the online workers that everybody talks about are the prize case in this. They never have contacts with their employers, who change from day to day, and they have no contact with the other people who work for that employer.

Boushey: Yes. It’s hard to organize these kinds of workers.

Solow: There’s no shop floor, but for the online worker, it’s clear who the boss is. The boss is the one who pays, as usual.

So what’s the correct, valid form of representation they could have? How could we do something about their voice and about the web of rules in which they operate? Or something about retirement for people who don’t have a single employer for any length of time? What is the right form of representation? I don’t really think it’s having someone on the board of a corporation. It might matter, but it can’t be the whole thing. I think that you need some kind of substitute. Maybe you need a substitute for the shop floor. How can you be part of a group that you never see, never communicate with or anything like that?

It’s that part of the inequality issue that I think doesn’t attract enough thought, and I don’t know how to go about encouraging that. Who would be good at it? Or what happens in other countries?

Boushey: I think it would be interesting to see how economists think about a labor market in the absence of unions. Is there any way to really make the argument for why this is important? It would be interesting to see more research that helps set that stage.

Solow: Maybe. But maybe it’s sociologists or social psychologists, though I do think the economics of this is important because the object here is not merely to make people feel good but to make them feel effective and be effective in pursuing their own interests.

So that, to me, is part of the inequality issue. It’s not so much a quantitative inequality, it’s a fact that the relationship between the boss and the bossed is getting more and more biased toward the boss, and that makes people feel unhappy.

Boushey: The test is really whether or not you are forced to laugh at the boss’s joke.

(LAUGHTER)

Solow: That’s good.

Boushey: Right?

Solow: That’s sort of the test about whether or not you have any freedom.

Boushey: Yes. It kind of sums up how I think people feel. If you don’t even have the right to not laugh at the boss’s jokes, it’s because you just don’t have any power.

Solow: And you have no status. You’re a replaceable object and, of course, the laws and statutes are now full of regulations and legislation that work against the organization of workers in firms. And the other thing that makes me think this is important is that business firms react or overreact to the possibility of union organization. You may remember a couple of years ago, the UAW proposed to try to organize a Volkswagen plant in Kentucky. And the Volkswagen people said, “Well, we won’t resist. Go ahead and see what you can do.” And you could hear a sharp intake of breath all over the business world in this country. What are these people saying?

I was once on the board of a for-profit organization, and when the possibility of a union came up, they panicked. They absolutely panicked. They thought that two days later they would lose all control of the firm, which can’t be right because we lived for some years with unions in this country, and companies made pretty good profits through much of that time.

Boushey: People still got rich.

Solow: So I think that there’s a real problem here, but maybe it’s more of an intellectual problem than a policy problem at the moment. But policymakers could at least relax some of the ridiculous regulations that stand in the way of employees acting on their own and in their own interests that would be worth trying.

Boushey: What’s the third most important issue for the U.S. economy right now?

Solow: Well, those are the two that really engage me. I think the third thing is nothing new. I think we’re simply ignoring the climate change issue too much. It’s so silly talking about this since it’s all going the other way, you know?

Boushey: The politics?

Solow: The politics. Not only the politics, but the policy. I read in The New York Times this morning—I don’t have a cell phone, so I don’t get my news that way—that the Environmental Protection Agency is firing scientists from its Science Advisory Committee and proposes to replace them with representatives of the industries being regulated.

Boushey: States need to just keep working at it. California, New York, they have to be at the forefront.

Solow: Changing the subject, economists are now having discussions every day about whether we’re at full employment in the economy now. When is the last time you ever saw a really tight labor market, where employers were scrambling to get workers rather than workers scrambling to get jobs? I do not know what the distribution consequences would be if we had a seller’s labor market. Now, I’m as alert as anybody to all the possible inflationary consequences and what-not, but there could be a good couple of years in there anyhow of more full employment.

Boushey: Yes. What we saw in the late 1990s. Incomes rose at the bottom. And we didn’t have inflation.

Solow: We were lucky in the ‘90s. There were a lot of accidental things helping to keep down inflation, such as health maintenance organizations that were holding down health costs and some other costs as well. But today, it would be so interesting to try for real full employment again. But it’s so amazing to me, the asymmetry of it. As soon as any firm says, “We’re having trouble finding skilled machinists,” that hits the newspapers. But if a skilled machinist says, “I’m having trouble finding a job,” that doesn’t seem newsworthy at all.

Boushey: That’s a very good point. I was on an email thread this week about full employment with a bunch of economists debating whether we’re there and how close we are, and yet the employment rate is still low. It’s great to be having this debate. Are we there yet? How close?

Solow: Yes, except that I’m afraid the answer will be “yes.”

Boushey: Bob, thanks so much for sharing lunch with me and covering all of these topics today. It was very stimulating.

Solow: You’re welcome, Heather, and thanks for lunch.