Things to Read on the Morning of August 29, 2015

Must- and Should-Reads: Huailu Li, Kevin Lang, and Kaiwen Leong: Competition alone will not eliminate discrimination Tim Duy: The Right And Wrong Arguments For September Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve Act: Section 4

Project Syndicate: A Cautionary History of US Monetary Tightening

Over at Project Syndicate: A Cautionary History of US Monetary Tightening: BERKELEY JACKSON HOLE – The US Federal Reserve has embarked on an effort to tighten monetary policy four times in the past four decades. On every one of these occasions, the effort triggered processes that reduced employment and output far more than the Fed’s staff had anticipated. As the Fed prepares to tighten monetary policy once again, an examination of this history – and of the current state of the economy – suggests that... More >

WorldPost: China’s Market Crash Means Chinese Supergrowth Could Have Only 5 More Years to Run….

Over at WorldPost: China's Market Crash Means Chinese Supergrowth Could Have Only 5 More Years to Run: Ever since I became an adult in 1980, I have been a stopped clock with respect to the Chinese economy. I have said -- always -- that at most, Chinese supergrowth likely has five more years to run. Then there will come a crash.... After the crash, China will revert to the standard pattern of an emerging market economy without successful institutions that duplicate or somehow mimic those... More >

Must-Read: Gavyn Davies: China’s Policy Failings Challenge the Fed

Must-Read: I cannot help but note strong divergence between the near-consensus views of Fed Chair Janet's and Fed Vice-Chair Stan's still-academic colleagues and students that tightening now is grossly premature, financial markets' agreement with the hippies as evidenced by the ten-year breakeven, commercial-banker and wingnut demands for immediate tightening, the extraordinarily awful performance since 2007 of not all but the average regional Fed president as revealed in the transcripts, and the Federal Reserve's strong predisposition to an interest-rate liftoff soon. That divergence plus the apparent... More >

Things to Read at Lunchtime on August 27, 2015

Must- and Should-Reads: Must-Read: Kris James Mitchener and Marc D. Weidenmier: Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk Cherrie Buckner: Young Black America Part Four: The Wrong Way to Close the Gender Wage Gap Tim Duy: Dudley Puts the Kibosh on September Andrew Haldane: Stuck Gillian Tett: The Silo Effect Might Like to Be Aware of: Hiroko Tabucchi: Walmart to End Sales of Assault Rifles in U.S. Stores

Must-Read: Kris James Mitchener and Marc D. Weidenmier: Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk

Must-Read: Kris James Mitchener and Marc D. Weidenmier: Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk: "We use a standard metric from international finance... ...the currency risk premium, to assess the credibility of fixed exchange rates during the classical gold standard era. Theory suggests that a completely credible and permanent commitment to join the gold standard would have zero currency risk or no expectation of devaluation. We find that, even five years after a typical emerging-market country joined the gold... More >

Must-Read: Miles Kimball: Larry Summers: The Fed Looks Set to Make a Mistake

Live from Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging: Must-Read: I think Miles Kimball is dead-on here: unless the advocates of interest-rate smoothing can come up with an argument for interest rate smoothing better than any they have so far, the right level of the Federal Reserve's short-term federal funds control rate is (if it is away from its zero lower bound) the level at which the Fed is uncertain whether its move at the next meeting will be up, down, or zero: Miles Kimball: Larry Summers: The... More >

Things to Read at Lunchtime on August 26, 2015

Must- and Should-Reads: Mark Thoma: The Politics of Income Inequality Must-Read: Rich Gilbert: E-Books: A Tale of Digital Disruption Must-Read: Robert Lucas (2001): Bald Peak Oliver Bush, Katie Farrant and Michelle Wright: Reform of the International Monetary and Financial System Robin Wigglesworth: Larry Summers and Ray Dalio Flag Return of Quantitative Easing Justin Fox: It's Often a Curse to Be Blessed With Commodities George Akerlof, Andrew Rose, and Janet Yellen (1998): Job Switching and Job Satisfaction in the U.S. Labor Market Must-Read: David Blanchflower, Mariana... More >

Must-Read: Rich Gilbert: E-Books: A Tale of Digital Disruption

**Must-Read: Rich Gilbert**: [E-Books: A Tale of Digital Disruption](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.29.3.165): "E-book sales surged after Amazon introduced the Kindle e-reader at the end of 2007... >...and accounted for about one quarter of all trade book sales by the end of 2013. Amazon's aggressive (low) pricing of e-books led to allegations that e-books were bankrupting brick and mortar book booksellers. Amazon's commanding position as a bookseller also raises concerns about monopoly power, and publishers are concerned about Amazon's power to displace them in the book value chain. I... More >

Must-Read: Robert Lucas (2001): Bald Peak

Must-Read: Jackson Hole 2015 Weblogging: As best as I can see, Robert Lucas is here saying that at the very same moment that Paul Volcker managed to push the U.S. unemployment rate up to 10% via monetary policy, he--Robert Lucas--was convinced by Ed Prescott's "new style of comparing theory to evidence" that "monetary shocks were just not pulling their weight" in providing a potential explanation of short-run movements in production and employment. No, Paul Romer, I will not let you blame this style of thought... More >