Must-Read: Wolfgang Dauth, Sebastian Findeisen, Jens Südekum, and Nicole Woessner: The rise of robots in the German labour market

Must-Read: Using technology and, more important, social institutions to build and deploy tools in ways that augment labor, rather than substitute for labor:

Wolfgang Dauth, Sebastian Findeisen, Jens Südekum, and Nicole Woessner: The rise of robots in the German labour market: “Robots have had no aggregate effect on German employment, and robot exposure is found to actually increase the chances of workers staying with their original employer… http://voxeu.org/article/rise-robots-german-labour-market#.WdHelWvyXW8.twitter

…Robots are much more prevalent in Germany than in the US or elsewhere outside Asia…. Usage… and now stands at 7.6 robots per thousand workers compared to only 2.7 and 1.6 in Europe and the US, respectively…. Moreover, Germany is not only a heavy user but also an important engineer of industrial robots…. We regress total local employment growth on… robot exposure…. The raw correlation between robots and growth is even positive… strongly driven by the automobile industry….

We calculate that one additional robot replaces two manufacturing jobs on average…. But those sizable losses are fully offset by job gains outside manufacturing…. Robot-exposed workers… have a substantially higher probability of keeping a job at their original workplace…. Robot exposure causes notable on-the-job earnings gains for high-skilled workers, especially in scientific and management positions….

We believe that those empirical findings reflect a key feature of industrial relations in the German labour market – the manufacturing sector is still highly unionised, and blue-collar wages (especially) are typically determined collectively with strong involvement of work councils. It has been frequently argued that German unions have a strong preference for maintaining high employment levels, and are willing to accept flexible wage setting arrangements, such as opening clauses, in the presence of negative shocks in order to keep jobs…

Should-Read: Mary E. Burfisher, Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder: The Impact of NAFTA on the United States

Should-Read: This is still the best thing on the gross and net effects of NAFTA. Read it!

Mary E. Burfisher, Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder: : The Impact of NAFTA on the United States: “The mainstream forecasts during the NAFTA debate were basically correct…” http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.15.1.125

…NAFTA has had relatively small positive effects on the U.S. economy and relatively large positive effects on Mexico. The only blemish marring this otherwise exemplary use of economic analysis in a policy debate was the occasional use of mercantilist arguments that attempted to infer the effect of trade liberalization by applying simple multipliers to projected bilateral trade balances. Such methods are inappropriate for the analysis of the benefits and costs of trade liberalization, and were criticized during the debate….

A debate over the effects of removing trade distortions should not discuss the aggregate trade balance. Regional trade liberalization primarily affects resource allocation, production, and trade patterns. While regional trade agreements may affect bilateral trade balances, a country’s aggregate trade balance is determined primarily in asset markets. The only way a regional trade agreement can affect a country’s aggregate trade balance is if it signals a country’s commitment to an open development strategy and therefore raises investor confidence. In this
context, NAFTA probably affected Mexico’s aggregate trade balance and helped ameliorate the effect of the peso crisis on capital flows. However, there is no discernible effect of NAFTA on the U.S. aggregate trade balance….

Realizing benefits from any trade agreement (or indeed, from any technological change) necessarily involves shifting resources across sectors, which in turn will involve adjustment costs, especially for labor. While the amount of adjustment required under NAFTA was small relative to normal labor turnover, the Clinton administration anticipated labor dislocation and extended Trade Adjustment Assistance. Globalization appears to be speeding structural changes in many economies, and there is clearly scope for developing policies that facilitate and smooth the adjustment process….

Free trade agreements can accelerate domestic reforms of policies that distort prices… can serve as a building block towards multilateral liberalization…

Should-Read: James Kwak: The Importance of Fairness: A New Economic Vision for the Democratic Party

Should-Read: This, from the extremely sharp James Kwak is—if I may say so—itself unfair.

The claim that Barack Obama had a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate is especially so.

Yes, Obama made a lot of mistakes. Yes, his bonding with a let’s-calm-down-and-not-do-anything-rash Tim Geithner who had no clue about the situation was very damaging. Yes, the Democrats had 60 votes in the Senate for six months. But that wasn’t Obama’s filibuster-proof majority: that was Max Baucus, Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Tom Carper, and Joe Lieberman’s filibuster-proof majority. This is not uncommon: the present Senate majority is not Donald Trump’s or Mitch McConnell’s; it is John McCain, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski’s majority:

James Kwak: The Importance of Fairness: A New Economic Vision for the Democratic Party: “A central shortcoming of the party is that, on economic issues, it has nothing to say to people trapped on the wrong side of our country’s growing inequality divide… https://baselinescenario.com/2017/06/15/telling-a-better-story-a-new-economic-vision-for-the-democratic-party/

…Hillary Clinton won the “working class” (household income less than $50,000) vote, but by a much smaller margin than Barack Obama in 2012 or 2008—despite Donald Trump’s ardent efforts to alienate African-Americans and Latinos. Some people voted for Trump because of racism or misogyny. But Clinton was also flattened by Trump among voters who feel their financial situation was worse than a year before or who think that life will be worse for the next generation. She lost the Electoral College in the “rust belt” states of the Upper Midwest, whose economies have never fully recovered from the decline of American manufacturing. The Democratic Party was once the party of working people. So why is it increasingly becoming the party of well-educated, socially tolerant, cosmopolitan city-dwellers? Because, in an age of stagnant median incomes and a disintegrating social safety net, Democrats have no economic message for the many people who are struggling to make ends meet, to pay for college, to stay in a home, or to save for retirement….

While Republicans say, “Free markets solve all problems,” Democrats respond, “Free markets solve most problems, but markets sometimes fail, so sometimes they need to be judiciously regulated to produce efficient outcomes.” This may be more accurate, but it undermines Democrats’ appeal to people who have not benefited from overall economic growth—because they have the wrong skills, live in the wrong place, got sick at the wrong time, or otherwise got unlucky. The second problem is that economism lite doesn’t work, at least not anymore….

The failure of overall economic growth to benefit the middle and working classes is not solely or even primarily the Democrats’ fault. The villain in that story is the Republican conservatives who weakened unions, undermined the social safety net, and slashed taxes on the rich. Globalization and competition from low-wage countries were another factor. But since the onslaught of the conservative revolution, Democrats have played defense by claiming the space once occupied by moderate Republicans. Recall the pivot to deficit reduction in 1993, welfare reform in 1996, the capital gains tax cut of 1997, the commitment to free trade agreements from NAFTA to TPP, and the bipartisan commitment to financial deregulation that helped produce the devastating financial crisis of 2008. Barack Obama temporarily had a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and yet his principal accomplishments were an economic stimulus bill that was more than one-third tax cuts; a health care plan modeled on Mitt Romney’s Massachusetts reforms; a technocratic financial reform bill that neither reduced the dominance of the megabanks that caused the 2008 crisis nor, judging from subsequent experience, deterred them from serial lawbreaking; and a financial system rescue that kept the big banks (and their executives and shareholders) afloat while they fraudulently foreclosed on millions of homeowners….

One of the central themes of my book is that economism is an ideological worldview: a lens through which we see the world, which affects the way we interpret reality and serves the interests of certain groups. Logically, it can only be overthrown by another worldview. And so the book ends this way:

Millions if not billions of people today hunger to live in a world that is more fair, more forgiving, and more humane than the one that we were born into. Creating a new vision of society worthy of that collective yearning—one that goes beyond the false promises of economism—is the first step toward building a better future for our children. That is the story that remains to be written.

What the Democratic Party needs is an economic message that: addresses the real problems that many Americans face on a daily basis (instead of callously insisting that “America is already great”); and resonates with their very real frustrations and anxieties….

Investment bankers and hedge fund managers work hard for long hours… make millions, tens of millions, or hundreds of millions of dollars…. Hotel housekeepers, retail store cashiers, fast food restaurant employees, and migrant agricultural workers also work hard for long hours. They often make less than twenty thousand dollars per year. Many work multiple jobs to make sure their families have enough to eat. Homebuyers who were overly optimistic or who didn’t read their mortgage terms carefully are kicked out of their homes, their savings obliterated and their credit shredded. The banks and law firms that foreclosed on them, using false affidavits robosigned by fictional executives, escape with nominal monetary penalties…. For-profit universities entice students to take out thousands of dollars of loans, then fail to give them the education they need to get a job…. University executives and shareholders enjoy large bonuses and rising stock prices.

Children born to well-off families have the full attention of two highly educated parents from birth. They go to private pre-schools from age two and then to economically segregated elementary schools where they are surrounded by equally fortunate peers. Their afternoons are filled with organized sports, music lessons, and other enrichment activities. Children born to poor families are often raised by only one parent who did not finish school and works long hours to make ends meet. They make do with haphazard child care arrangements until entering kindergarten at an underfunded public school, already years behind grade level.

This is the world we live in. There is a word for this world: unfair…

Must- and Should-Reads: October 7, 2017


Interesting Reads:

Should-Read: Joan Williams: Equitable Growth in Conversation

Should-Read: Joan Williams: Equitable Growth in Conversation: “Elites have what are called entrepreneurial networks—wide circles of acquaintances that are often national, or even global… https://equitablegrowth.org/in-conversation/equitable-growth-in-conversation-joan-williams/

…Working-class and poor people typically have place-based clique networks of family, neighbors, and friends they’ve known forever. Nonelites rely on these clique networks to protect them from their disadvantaged market position, by providing childcare, elder care, and help with things such as home repairs. So, for moving to make sense, nonelites need not only to find a better job; they need to find one that’s so much better that they come out ahead, despite the fact they now have to pay for childcare and elder care because no family is close enough to help out.

Another reason nonelites are reluctant to move is that their social honor is not portable….

Another important point: If you’re working class, the people in the communities you’re moving to have the same kind of dense place-based networks you have—and they’re going to make sure that good jobs go to people in their networks, not to you. This is just the kind of erasure of the realities of people’s lives on the ground that, if I can say this respectfully, economists are so good at…

Should-Read: Randall Morck and Bernard Yeung: East Asian Financial and Economic Development

Should-Read: Randall Morck and Bernard Yeung: East Asian Financial and Economic Development: “Japan, an isolated, backward country in the 1860s, industrialized rapidly to become a major industrial power by the 1930s… http://www.nber.org/papers/w23845

…South Korea, among the world’s poorest countries in the 1960s, joined the ranks of First World economies in little over a single generation. China now seems poised to follow a similar trajectory. All three cases highlight the importance of marginalized traditional elites, intensive early investment in education, a degree of economic openness, free markets, equity financing, early-stage coordination of firms in diverse industries via arrangements such as business groups, and political institutions capable of curbing the power of families grown wealthy in early-stage rapid development to make way for prosperity sustained by efficient resource allocation to high-productivity firms…

Should-Watch: Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers: Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

  • Should-Watch: Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers: Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy: “The Peterson Institute will hold a conference on ‘Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy’…

…coordinated by Olivier Blanchard, PIIE C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, and Lawrence Summers, member of the Institute’s Executive Committee of the Board, on October 12–13, 2017. The conference is the fourth in a series Blanchard began at the International Monetary Fund. Academic experts and policymakers will address the challenges to macroeconomic thinking and policymaking that today’s economic environment presents–low inflation despite low unemployment, the apparent interactions of rising inequality and stagnating productivity, and the unresponsiveness of long-term interest rates to rising public debt, among others….

Thursday, October 12, 2017 8:30: Registration…. Introduction paper by Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers, Discussion…. Monetary policy paper by Ben Bernanke, moderator: Olivier Blanchard, panel discussion: Mario Draghi, Lael Brainard, Philipp M. Hildebrand, Adam S. Posen…. Buffet lunch…. Fiscal policy paper by Alan Auerbach, moderator: Lawrence H. Summers, panel discussion: Marco Buti, Valerie Ramey, Robert E. Rubin, Jay Shambaugh…. Financial stability paper by Andy Haldane, moderator: Adam S. Posen, panel discussion: Markus Brunnermeier, Benoît Coeuré, Nellie Liang , Jeremy Stein.

Friday, October 13, 2017 8:00: Registration…. Inequality and political economy paper by Jason Furman, moderator: Olivier Blanchard, panel discussion: Dani Rodrik, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Justin Wolfers…. International economy issues paper by Gita Gopinath, moderator: Lawrence H. Summers, panel discussion: Barry Eichengreen, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Carmen M. Reinhart…. Fireside chat with Lawrence H. Summers and Olivier Blanchard, moderator: Adam S. Posen.

Must-Read: Paul Krugman: The Transfer Problem and Tax Incidence

Must-Read: A huge amount of the past half century’s international macro is implicit in or an immediate consequence of elementary extensions of Dornbusch’s “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics”:

Paul Krugman: The Transfer Problem and Tax Incidence: “I’ve spent three decades pointing out the fallacy of the doctrine of immaculate transfer…

…the notion that international flows of capital translate directly into trade imbalances. Exporters and importers don’t know or care about S-I; they respond to signals from prices and costs. A capital inflow creates a trade deficit by driving up the real exchange rate, making your goods and services less competitive. And because markets for goods and services are still very imperfectly integrated – most of GDP isn’t tradable at all – it takes large signals, big moves in the real exchange rate, to cause significant changes in the current account balance…. But how much stronger does the dollar get? The answer, familiar to international macroeconomists, is that the dollar rises above its long-run expected value, so that people expect it to decline in the future – and the extent of the rise is determined by how high the dollar has to go so that expected depreciation outweighs the rise in after-tax returns compared with other countries…. Knowledge that we’re looking at a one-time adjustment limits how high the dollar can go, which limits the size of the current account deficit, which limits the rate at which the U.S. capital stock can expand, which slows the process of return equalization. So the long run in which returns are equalized can be quite long indeed…

Weekend Reading: “occupational segregation” edition

This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth published this week and the second is the work we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

 Equitable Growth round-up

Equitable Growth released a new working paper by University of Louisville’s Elizabeth Munnich and University of Notre Dame’s Abigail Wozniak that digs into why more men are becoming registered nurses.

In light of this new research, let’s try to understand why the rise of men in nursing hasn’t been accompanied by a similar trend in other female-dominant occupations.

A new fact sheet provides an overview of occupational segregation in the United States and takes a broader view of why male-and female-dominant occupations evolve and what that means for wages and the economy.

Nick Bunker digs into new research that looks at how much the increasing age of firms may be affecting productivity growth.

In a new column, Greg Lieserson looks at how business-level taxes on capital are so low and argues that lower rates on companies are unlikely to boost investment growth much.

Links from around the web

Even as income inequality spiraled over the past fifty years, America’s child-poverty rate was cut in half, hitting an all-time low of 15.6 percent in 2016. The reason? Annie Lowrey writes that government policies played the biggest role. [the atlantic]

The racial wealth gap has grown substantially over the past 25 years and looks set to continue for the foreseeable future, writes Tracy Jan. She looks at new Federal Reserve data that finds that 1 in 7 white families are now millionaires compared to about 1 in 50 for black and Hispanic families. [washington post]

Legend has it that, in 1974, University of Chicago economist Arthur Laffer went to dinner with Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, aides to President Ford, and used a napkin to sketch out the case that raising tax rates on the wealthy would hamper growth. This argument, writes Eduardo Porter, helped drive tax policy for over forty years and led to a growing gulf between the rich and the poor. [nytimes]

Elizabeth Winkler writes about newly released statistics on global offshore wealth, which is equivalent to about 10 percent of global GDP. This finding suggests that inequality is even greater than previously thought and — as it is a conservative estimate — inequality might be even higher than it suggests. [the economist]

Following the Trump Administration’s decision to halt an Obama-era initiative to require companies to file data broken down by race, ethnicity, and gender, Danielle Paquette writes about the various groups that are fighting back. The data collection, which was set to begin in March of next year, would have provided the government with a clearer picture of pay scales in order to help target discrimination. [wonkblog]

Friday figure

From “More U.S. men are becoming nurses but not entering other traditionally female occupations” by Bridget Ansel