Should-Read: Mark Belko: As new apartments are built around Pittsburgh, older stock is feeling the pressure

Should-Read: Supply and demand works for housing markets: add more housing while keeping the desirability of the metropolitan area in the eyes of the well-off constant, and housing prices fall. Of course, more housing and the resulting density can raise the desirability of the metropolitan area in the eyes of the well-off: Mark Belko: As new apartments are built around Pittsburgh, older stock is feeling the pressure: “Pittsburgh is in the midst of a supply surge, with about 4,600 units being built within the last three years…

…more than in the previous 15 years combined. Another 3,479 units are set to be completed in the next two years…. The biggest impact could be on older apartment buildings, which may have a hard time competing, according to the report…. CBRE cited the 2004-built Flats at Southside Works. Occupancy hit 99 percent in 2010 and the average rent peaked at $1.80 a square foot in 2014. Faced with competition from the newer Hot Metal Flats and Southside Works City Apartments, the complex is now 71 percent occupied with rents of $1.73 a square foot, according to the report…. While Walnut Capital hasn’t experience a significant drop in occupancy, it has become an issue among landlords, Mr. Reidbord noted. “Unless you have something better to offer in the older apartments, you’re going to be subject to competition from new apartments,” he said…

Should-Read: Ann Marie Marciarille: The Amazon Threat to Kill the Hungry Tapeworm

The Very Hungry Tapeworm Random Acts of Creativity by Karen Windness

Should-Read: Ann Marie Marciarille: The Amazon Threat to Kill the Hungry Tapeworm: “Health industry stock analysts and observers have been wondering for some time about Amazon’s potential to enter the marketplace for health care goods and services…

…obtained wholesale pharmaceutical distribution licenses in twelve states…. Now… Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and JP Morgan have announced their intention to create a multi-employer not for profit health insurance plan/health care provider, it is not only the pharmaceutical sector that is speculating on what all this could mean…. Health care delivery as well as employer sponsored health insurance is contemplated…. We do have a significant historic example of a business person inexperienced in health care delivery and health insurance taking these industries by storm. That is what Henry Kaiser did, beginning in the Richmond Kaiser shipyards of the 1930’s on site and opened for public enrollment in the 1940’s. Henry Kaiser had clear goals: bind his employees to his shipyards with an attractive plan at a time when war time frozen wages could not perform this function and offer better workplace injury care in order to keep wartime production moving… a better workers comp system… moved to employer sponsored health insurance… had an interest in redeeming his mother Mary Kaiser’s death at the age of 52 from untreated kidney disease… chronic nephritis…. untreated because she could not afford the care required and Henry, a teenager at the time, could not afford it for her….

One collaborative press release does not an integrated health care delivery/health insurance company make. Even a collaborative press release as wonderful as today’s quoting Warren Buffet vowing to help attack the health care costs that are a hungry tapeworm on American business and the American economy raises more questions than it answers…

Should-Read: N. Gregory Mankiw, David Romer, and David Weil (1992): A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth

Should-Read: An oldy now, but a very goody: The treatment of human capital in this paper is inadequate: the benefits of human capital are private to the learner, which I think is wrong, and teachers in rich countries are 50 times as good at getting human capital into the brains of learners as are teachers in poor countries, which I think is wrong. Human capital largely acts as a force multiplier for physical capital. But the underlying lesson is very good: the Solow model can fit quite well if you assume capital production function parameters of a half or more: N. Gregory Mankiw, David Romer, and David Weil (1992): A CONTRIBUTION TO THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: “This paper examines whether the Solow growth model is consistent with the international variation in the standard of living…

…It shows that an augmented Solow model that includes accumulation of human as well as physical capital provides an excellent description of the cross-country data. The paper also examines the implications of the Solow model for convergence in standards of living, that is, for whether poor countries tend to grow faster than rich countries. The evidence indicates that, holding population growth and capital accumulation constant, countries converge at about the rate the augmented Solow model predicts…

Https eml berkeley edu dromer papers MRW QJE1992 pdf Https eml berkeley edu dromer papers MRW QJE1992 pdf Cursor and https eml berkeley edu dromer papers MRW QJE1992 pdf Https eml berkeley edu dromer papers MRW QJE1992 pdf Cursor and https eml berkeley edu dromer papers MRW QJE1992 pdf Https eml berkeley edu dromer papers MRW QJE1992 pdf Cursor and https eml berkeley edu dromer papers MRW QJE1992 pdf
Cursor and https eml berkeley edu dromer papers MRW QJE1992 pdf Https eml berkeley edu dromer papers MRW QJE1992 pdf Https eml berkeley edu dromer papers MRW QJE1992 pdf

Should-Read: Greg Leiserson: U.S. Inequality and Recent Tax Changes

Should-Read: Greg Leiserson: U.S. Inequality and Recent Tax Changes: “Distribution tables provide a first-order approximation to the change in welfare…

…Change in welfare determined primarily by changes outside the agent’s control: mechanical change in tax and changes in relative prices:

  • Behavioral changes have no first-order impact on the well-being of the person changing behavior
    (envelope theorem)
  • Recipe for constructing distribution tables that are informative about welfare:
    • compute change in tax liabilities and relative price effects (i.e. incidence assumptions)
    • exclude behavioral changes reflecting unconstrained, rational choice
    • include other behavioral changes (easier said than done, esp. when there are quantitatively
      important market failures)
  • Converting dollar change in after-tax income into utility requires an assumption about the marginal utility of income (e.g. 1/after-tax income)
    • Conceptual difference between individual or family’s marginal utility and social welfare weights
      used to evaluate redistributive policies
  • Policymakers’ desire for distribution tables may not reflect an ex ante desire for information about
    welfare impacts, but plausible that the desire for tables excluding behavioral changes/sample families is
    an implicit recognition that those changes are different…

Should-Read: Marshall Steinbaum: A tweetstorm on the recent intellectual history of monopsony

Should-Read: If fast-food restaurants in the Susquehanna Valley have substantial monopoly power in the labor market—and it really looks like they do—what employers do not? Galbraith on labor unions as countervailing power in conditions of oligopoly did not, IMHO, go nearly far enough: Marshall Steinbaum: A tweetstorm on the recent intellectual history of monopsony: “Oh, one last thing: in… 2010… Syverson touched on the Chicago revolution in antitrust…

…and why it displaced the SCP paradigm, and he said antitrust was where the ideological right wing of economics had been most influential on policy. And I thought “that sounds fishy. Let’s put a pin in that and get back to it.” Well here we are. I’M BACK:

Should-Read: Gauti Eggertsson, Jacob A. Robbins, and Ella Getz Wold: Kaldor and Piketty’s Facts: The Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States

Should-Read: Very good paper. Nevertheless, the rise in monopoly seems to be primarily a post-2000 fact; the rise in inequality, by contrast, is mostly a late 1980s and 1990s fact. So I am not sure that this is the right tree to bark up: Gauti Eggertsson, Jacob A. Robbins, and Ella Getz Wold: Kaldor and Piketty’s Facts: The Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States: “The macroeconomic data of the last thirty years has overturned at least two of Kaldor’s famous stylized growth facts: constant interest rates, and a constant labor share…

…At the same time, the research of Piketty and others has introduced several new and surprising facts: an increase in the financial wealth-to-output ratio in the US, an increase in measured Tobin’s Q, and a divergence between the marginal and the average return on capital. In this paper, we argue that these trends can be explained by an increase in market power and pure profits in the US economy, i.e., the emergence of a non-zero-rent economy, along with forces that have led to a persistent long term decline in real interest rates. We make three parsimonious modifications to the standard neoclassical model to explain these trends. Using recent estimates of the increase in markups and the decrease in real interest rates, we show that our model can quantitatively match these new stylized macroeconomic facts….

  1. (P1) An increase in the financial wealth-to-income ratio despite low savings rates, with a stagnating capital-to-income ratio.
  2. (P2) An increase in Tobin’s Q to a level permanently above 1.
  3. (P3) A decrease in the real rate of interest, while the measured average
    return on capital is relatively constant.
  4. (P4)An increase in the pure profit share, with a decrease in the capital and labor share.
  5. (P5) A decrease in investment-to-output, even given historically low borrowing costs and a high value of empirical Tobin’s Q….

The primary goal of this paper is to pursue the hypothesis that changes in monopoly profits, along with forces that have pushed down the natural rate of interest, have been the main driver of a variety of macroeconomic changes over the past forty years. There are a number of reasons why we argue for this hypothesis:
1. there is a wide variety of confirmatory evidence that concentration, profits, and markups have increased over the time period, while the natural rate of interest has decreased
2. it is parsimonious, in the sense that we use two data series (markups and interest rates) to explain the movements of 5 separate trends
3. our model does not generate counterfactual implications…


Factor Shares Wealth, Capital, and Gross Value Added Tobin s Q Return on Capital Factor Shares Net Investment Markup Estimates

https://www.icloud.com/keynote/0qVxYidBYm_QEQ_3VwbCCQPiA

Should-Read: Janelle Shane: Do neural nets dream of electric sheep?

Should-Read: Janelle Shane: Do neural nets dream of electric sheep?: “Neural network[s]… used for everything from language translation to finance modeling. One of their specialties is image recognition…

…make really bizarre mistakes…. They can find sheep easily in fields and mountainsides, but as soon as sheep start showing up in weird places, it becomes obvious how much the algorithms rely on guessing and probabilities. Bring sheep indoors, and they’re labeled as cats. Pick up a sheep (or a goat) in your arms, and they’re labeled as dogs. Paint them orange, and they become flowers…. And if goats climb trees, they become birds. Or possibly giraffes. (It turns out that Microsoft Azure is somewhat notorious for seeing giraffes everywhere due to a rumored overabundance of giraffes in the original dataset)….

Neural networks match patterns. They see patches of furlike texture, a bunch of green, and conclude that there are sheep. If they see fur and kitchen shapes, it may conclude instead that there are cats. If life plays by the rules, image recognition works well. But as soon as people-or sheep-do something unexpected, the algorithms show their weaknesses.

Weekend reading: “Gluts, booms, and crashes” edition

This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth published this week and the second is the work we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

Equitable Growth round-up

The latest in the Equitable Growth Working Paper series is research on who becomes an inventor in the United States. The paper, funded in part by Equitable Growth, looks at how differences in family background affect which American children go on to become inventors.

What have economists learned about the cycle of boom and crashes in the wake of the Great Recession? Summarizing empirical and theoretical research from the past few years, a new paper lays out the case for the importance of the “credit-driven household demand channel.”

Looking back at President Trump’s first State of the Union address, Heather Boushey highlights research on the challenges families face in the modern economy and how it matches up to the President’s proposals.

Links from around the web

Michael Gee looks at troubling data from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. He wonders why so few executives, especially in the tech sector, are women or people of color. [hbr]

How low can the unemployment rate fall before inflation really picks up? As Neil Irwin writes, economists just don’t know and yet it’s the biggest question in U.S. monetary policy these days. [the upshot]

Speaking of monetary policy, former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke interviews former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen about her time at the Fed and much more. [brookings]

The United States currently runs an investment income surplus with the rest of the world, as the income earned from U.S. investment abroad is higher than the investment income earned by foreigners in the United States. Brad Setser writes about how this surplus is likely to decline soon, making the U.S. current account deficit even larger. [cfr]

A new study, Caitlin Dewey reports, finds that the maximum pre-meal benefit available from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program is lower than the average price of meals bought by low-income households in 99 percent of U.S. counties. [wonkblog]

Friday figure

Figure from “Presentation: U.S. Inequality and Recent Tax Changes,” by Greg Leiserson

For families, concern is not enough

Watching President Trump’s State of the Union address last month and noting his recent budget submission, I was struck by the chasm between the concern he expressed for American families and the paucity of the ideas in that speech and his recent budget for addressing their serious challenges.

“There has never been a better time to start living the American dream,” he said, and referred to our future as “one American family.” But what is his administration doing or proposing for actual American families? And does the research on the challenges they face back these ideas or an alternative path?

It is increasingly difficult for modern families to address day-in and day-out conflicts between their work and home lives. In addition to too-little wage growth for too many workers, there are specific family-related issues that must concern all of us, including workers’ lack of access to paid medical and family leave; the ever-rising cost and limited availability of quality child care; the increasing incidence of work schedule instability; and the pay gap that continues to disadvantage women, particularly women of color.

Considerable research shows that addressing these conflicts between work and life makes the U.S. economy stronger. For example, economists find that weak work-family policies in the U.S. significantly contributed to a decline in women’s labor force participation in recent years, a trend that also harms U.S. economic performance and growth.

Let’s take the above issues one at a time and consider what the President said, what is being done by Congress and the administration, and what could actually help America’s families.

To address the stubbornness of wages, the President is relying mainly on the indirect effects of slashing corporate taxes. But so far, as with past corporate tax cuts, the benefits are going largely to the wealthy in the form of higher dividends and share buy-backs. Very little has trickled down. Splashy press releases aside, it may be that the gradual tightening of the labor market is finally beginning to yield higher wages. We’ll see.

One effect of the tax cuts we have not had to wait for: the Administration is proposing reductions to domestic programs that will mostly affect working families and retirees. Why? To address the budget deficits created by their tax cuts. And then there are regulatory changes like the replacement of the Obama-era rule stating that the tips workers earn belong to them. These workers, mostly women, generally are modest earners, and research shows they generally have very low rates of employer-provided benefits and are twice as likely to live in poverty. Letting them keep their tips—tips that most of us believe we’re giving to the worker for good service—should be noncontroversial, but the Department of Labor is proposing to allow employers to control those tips and distribute them as they wish, even using the tips for capital improvements. It’s no wonder DOL has held back an analysis of how much money this would cost workers.

The modern American family desperately needs a federal paid leave program that gives workers paid time off for the birth or adoption of a child, the illness of a child or other close family member, or the worker’s own serious illness without sacrificing financial security. President Trump mentioned this, his daughter supports it, and his budget includes a barebones plan.

Sadly, that plan is wholly inadequate. It brings to mind the old complaint about a restaurant where the food is terrible – and the portions are so small. The plan takes funds from states’ already-strapped unemployment insurance funds, which should be unacceptable to begin with – to pay for a paid leave program that does nothing for workers with sick children or other family members, or for workers who become seriously ill themselves, and provides an insufficient benefit for a family with a new child.

We should look to the states and adopt what has worked there: a program that utilizes existing social insurance programs (Social Security at the federal level) and is funded by a small payroll tax paid by some combination of employers and workers. Research shows these programs support families and businesses alike. Businesses are able to retain valuable workers instead of losing them permanently because they can’t afford to pay them during their times of need.

Finding affordable, quality childcare is a problem that faces nearly every modern working family. And the cost of quality care could be having a serious impact on the U.S. economy. The current set of federal programs and tax breaks provide important help, but quality, availability, and cost of childcare are still major issues for millions of families and are affecting the U.S. labor supply. Unfortunately, this problem went unmentioned in the State of the Union. There is no shortage of ideas for strengthening the programmatic and tax support we provide to workers facing the childcare dilemma. Now is the time to act.

A growing challenge facing workers is schedule instability – unpredictable work hours that make it difficult to impossible to plan child care and family life. We need to look for ways to protect these workers, while ensuring that companies have a reliable workforce.

An important scheduling issue that the President did not mention and is actually exacerbating is excessive or uncompensated overtime. Fewer and fewer workers are covered by the Federal Labor Standards Act requirement that employers pay time-and-a-half for overtime. The Obama administration sought to restore overtime for millions of workers by increasing the salary employers must pay before they can avoid paying overtime, but the Trump administration killed that rule, thus subjecting millions of workers to continuing undercompensated overtime. These workers, and their families, need the protection the FLSA was meant to provide.

Another significant scheduling issue facing low-wage workers in the service and retail industries in particular is unpredictable schedules. For many of these workers, schedules can change day-to-day, or even hour-to-hour, without warning. New policies should, at a minimum, require that employers, not workers, bear the costs of last-minute shift scheduling decisions, and bar employers from retaliating against workers who express concern about their schedules. This is a growing problem among workers facing serious economic challenges, and we need to make it a high priority.

Finally, the administration rarely discusses the gender pay gap. Women, who make up 51 percent of the U.S. workforce, earn on average 80 percent of what men earn—and women of color tend to earn even less. While research on the causes continues, current U.S. programs, labor laws, and institutions, as suggested above, do not do nearly enough to address the various ways in which women are held back at work. Women are disproportionately affected by the shortcomings of current policies and programs that should help parents balance work and family responsibilities. Boosting women’s economic outcomes by addressing these issues would improve worker productivity and therefore the U.S. economy.

The problems I’ve outlined here are both a reflection of and causes of the growing inequality in our economy and society. Research increasingly shows that inequality is a drag on the economy – so these issues are important to all Americans. I don’t expect this administration, or this Congress, to do a 180-degree turn and begin supporting families and workers. But I hope that we can look forward to these kinds of changes in the future.

Should-Read: Kenneth Rogoff: Economists vs. Scientists on Long-Term Growth

Should-Read: A few comments: (1) Ken, Trump or Trump’s advisors have been reading John Cochrane—that is where “6% growth” is getting into the Republican intellectual swamp. (2) True “AI”—the science fiction kind—is still as far off as ever: “AI” today is (a) hype to remove investors from their money, (b) pattern recognition, and (c) voice interfaces for database search where it is no longer jarring for humans to deal with them as if they understood what was being asked of them, and that works only as long as they remain in their very restricted domain. (b) and (c) are not and will not be for the next decade at least things that show themselves in the aggregate productivity statistics. Those of us who know the economic history well know that the technology leads the leading firms that apply it by a generation, and the leading firms lead the macro impact by a generation. And technology “demonstrations” are not technology: Hiero of Alexandria’s second-century aeropile was not a useful steam engine: Kenneth Rogoff: Economists vs. Scientists on Long-Term Growth: “Most economic forecasters have largely shrugged off recent advances in artificial intelligence…

…If supply-side pessimism is appropriate, the recent massive tax and spending packages in the United States will likely do much more to raise inflation than to boost investment. There are plenty of reasons to object to recent US fiscal policy…. We live in an era of rising inequality and falling income shares for labor relative to capital. Governments need to do more, not less, to redistribute income and wealth.

It is hard to know what US President Donald Trump is thinking when he boasts that his policies will deliver up to 6% growth….

Economists’ pessimism… is underpinned by the belief that advanced economies cannot hope to repeat the dynamism that the US enjoyed from 1995-2005 (and other advanced economies a bit later), much less the salad days of the 1950s and 1960s. But the doubters ought to consider the fact that many scientists, across many disciplines, see things differently. Young researchers, in particular, believe that advances in basic knowledge are coming as fast as ever, even if practical applications are taking a long time to develop…. Perhaps we should be far more worried about the ethical and social implications of material growth that is faster than humans can spiritually absorb. The angst over AI mostly focuses on inequality and the future of work. But as science fiction writers have long warned us, the potential threats arising from the birth of silicon-based “life” forms are truly frightening….

The influx of women into the labor force played a major role in boosting growth in the latter part of the twentieth century. But now that has largely played out…. Similarly, global investment has collapsed since the 2008 financial crisis…. And measured productivity growth has declined everywhere….

Still, the best bet is that AI and other new technologies will eventually come to have a much larger impact on growth than they have up to now…. With the after-effects of the financial crisis fading, and AI perhaps starting to gain traction, trend US output growth can easily stay strong for the next several years…. The likely corresponding rise in real global interest rates will be tricky for central bankers to navigate. In the best case, they will be able to “ride the wave,” as Alan Greenspan famously did in the 1990s, though more inflation is likely this time. The bottom line is that neither policymakers nor markets should be betting on the slow growth of the past decade carrying over…