Grant Category

Macroeconomics and Inequality

What are the implications of inequality on the long-term stability of our economy and its growth potential?

What are the implications of inequality on the long-term stability of our economy and its growth potential?

A larger share of U.S. national income has been flowing to the individuals at the top of the income and wealth ladder. These individuals are less likely to spend and more likely to save their money than those with lower income. There is evidence that growing income inequality may be contributing to the so-called secular stagnation of macroeconomic growth.

Growing income inequality likely bears on macroeconomic performance through other channels as well. The lower real interest rates that have resulted from higher global saving will limit the ability of conventional monetary policy to stabilize the economy in the next economic downturn. Growing inequality has also contributed to a growing sense that the economy isn’t working for most families, fueling both distrust in institutions and greater political polarization.

We need to better understand the implications of inequality on the long-term stability of our economy and its growth potential. The large and sustained rise in inequality across income and wealth groups, as well as the disparate performance of different geographies and demographic groups, make understanding how these trends could exacerbate economic instability and reduce economic growth a pressing national concern.

  • The effects of monetary policy
  • The effects of fiscal policy
  • The effects of the tax and transfer system
  • Political economy

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Mark-ups, labor market inequality, and the distributional implications of monetary policy

Grant Year: 2020

Grant Amount: $60,000

Grant Type: academic

This project is part of a broader agenda to develop quantitative macroeconomic models that can be used to study the distributional implications of macroeconomic shocks and policies. Existing macroeconomic models are limited in their ability to create realistic dynamics in the distribution of labor income in response to macroeconomic shocks. Since labor income is one of the most important dimensions of economic inequality and the most important determinant of economic welfare for the majority of U.S. households, this is a significant limitation. This paper will begin by developing a theory to demonstrate the new heterogeneity that is going to be a key force in the model. It will be followed by an empirical section to show the fact that the model is seeking to address and to highlight the important empirical facts that other models are missing, such as that not all labor income is similarly cyclical and that expansionary and productive occupations have systematically different experiences. The final section addresses the general equilibrium consequences of this heterogeneity, a step that is critically important for doing policy counterfactuals.

Monetary policy, credit, and labor income redistribution

Grant Year: 2020

Grant Amount: $58,110

Grant Type: academic

There is an enormous amount of interest recently in the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy, with an eye on questions such as whether monetary policy contributes to inequality. This research will examine two significant research questions within this literature: the effect of monetary policy on inequality and differential effects of the credit transmission channel. This project will use Portuguese administrative data that matches employer-employee data with credit registry data. The project is likely to lead to fine-grained estimates of the effects of monetary policy on the distribution of labor income, as well as on the effects of the distribution of firm credit outcomes.

Experts

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Erick Sager

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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Gabriel Unger

Stanford University

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Matthew Gibson

Williams College

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Brandon Alston

Northwestern University

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Matthew Johnson

Duke University

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