Should-Read: Randall Morck and Bernard Yeung: East Asian Financial and Economic Development

Should-Read: Randall Morck and Bernard Yeung: East Asian Financial and Economic Development: “Japan, an isolated, backward country in the 1860s, industrialized rapidly to become a major industrial power by the 1930s… http://www.nber.org/papers/w23845

…South Korea, among the world’s poorest countries in the 1960s, joined the ranks of First World economies in little over a single generation. China now seems poised to follow a similar trajectory. All three cases highlight the importance of marginalized traditional elites, intensive early investment in education, a degree of economic openness, free markets, equity financing, early-stage coordination of firms in diverse industries via arrangements such as business groups, and political institutions capable of curbing the power of families grown wealthy in early-stage rapid development to make way for prosperity sustained by efficient resource allocation to high-productivity firms…

Should-Watch: Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers: Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

  • Should-Watch: Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers: Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy: “The Peterson Institute will hold a conference on ‘Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy’…

…coordinated by Olivier Blanchard, PIIE C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, and Lawrence Summers, member of the Institute’s Executive Committee of the Board, on October 12–13, 2017. The conference is the fourth in a series Blanchard began at the International Monetary Fund. Academic experts and policymakers will address the challenges to macroeconomic thinking and policymaking that today’s economic environment presents–low inflation despite low unemployment, the apparent interactions of rising inequality and stagnating productivity, and the unresponsiveness of long-term interest rates to rising public debt, among others….

Thursday, October 12, 2017 8:30: Registration…. Introduction paper by Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers, Discussion…. Monetary policy paper by Ben Bernanke, moderator: Olivier Blanchard, panel discussion: Mario Draghi, Lael Brainard, Philipp M. Hildebrand, Adam S. Posen…. Buffet lunch…. Fiscal policy paper by Alan Auerbach, moderator: Lawrence H. Summers, panel discussion: Marco Buti, Valerie Ramey, Robert E. Rubin, Jay Shambaugh…. Financial stability paper by Andy Haldane, moderator: Adam S. Posen, panel discussion: Markus Brunnermeier, Benoît Coeuré, Nellie Liang , Jeremy Stein.

Friday, October 13, 2017 8:00: Registration…. Inequality and political economy paper by Jason Furman, moderator: Olivier Blanchard, panel discussion: Dani Rodrik, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Justin Wolfers…. International economy issues paper by Gita Gopinath, moderator: Lawrence H. Summers, panel discussion: Barry Eichengreen, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Carmen M. Reinhart…. Fireside chat with Lawrence H. Summers and Olivier Blanchard, moderator: Adam S. Posen.

Must-Read: Paul Krugman: The Transfer Problem and Tax Incidence

Must-Read: A huge amount of the past half century’s international macro is implicit in or an immediate consequence of elementary extensions of Dornbusch’s “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics”:

Paul Krugman: The Transfer Problem and Tax Incidence: “I’ve spent three decades pointing out the fallacy of the doctrine of immaculate transfer…

…the notion that international flows of capital translate directly into trade imbalances. Exporters and importers don’t know or care about S-I; they respond to signals from prices and costs. A capital inflow creates a trade deficit by driving up the real exchange rate, making your goods and services less competitive. And because markets for goods and services are still very imperfectly integrated – most of GDP isn’t tradable at all – it takes large signals, big moves in the real exchange rate, to cause significant changes in the current account balance…. But how much stronger does the dollar get? The answer, familiar to international macroeconomists, is that the dollar rises above its long-run expected value, so that people expect it to decline in the future – and the extent of the rise is determined by how high the dollar has to go so that expected depreciation outweighs the rise in after-tax returns compared with other countries…. Knowledge that we’re looking at a one-time adjustment limits how high the dollar can go, which limits the size of the current account deficit, which limits the rate at which the U.S. capital stock can expand, which slows the process of return equalization. So the long run in which returns are equalized can be quite long indeed…

Weekend Reading: “occupational segregation” edition

This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth published this week and the second is the work we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

 Equitable Growth round-up

Equitable Growth released a new working paper by University of Louisville’s Elizabeth Munnich and University of Notre Dame’s Abigail Wozniak that digs into why more men are becoming registered nurses.

In light of this new research, let’s try to understand why the rise of men in nursing hasn’t been accompanied by a similar trend in other female-dominant occupations.

A new fact sheet provides an overview of occupational segregation in the United States and takes a broader view of why male-and female-dominant occupations evolve and what that means for wages and the economy.

Nick Bunker digs into new research that looks at how much the increasing age of firms may be affecting productivity growth.

In a new column, Greg Lieserson looks at how business-level taxes on capital are so low and argues that lower rates on companies are unlikely to boost investment growth much.

Links from around the web

Even as income inequality spiraled over the past fifty years, America’s child-poverty rate was cut in half, hitting an all-time low of 15.6 percent in 2016. The reason? Annie Lowrey writes that government policies played the biggest role. [the atlantic]

The racial wealth gap has grown substantially over the past 25 years and looks set to continue for the foreseeable future, writes Tracy Jan. She looks at new Federal Reserve data that finds that 1 in 7 white families are now millionaires compared to about 1 in 50 for black and Hispanic families. [washington post]

Legend has it that, in 1974, University of Chicago economist Arthur Laffer went to dinner with Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, aides to President Ford, and used a napkin to sketch out the case that raising tax rates on the wealthy would hamper growth. This argument, writes Eduardo Porter, helped drive tax policy for over forty years and led to a growing gulf between the rich and the poor. [nytimes]

Elizabeth Winkler writes about newly released statistics on global offshore wealth, which is equivalent to about 10 percent of global GDP. This finding suggests that inequality is even greater than previously thought and — as it is a conservative estimate — inequality might be even higher than it suggests. [the economist]

Following the Trump Administration’s decision to halt an Obama-era initiative to require companies to file data broken down by race, ethnicity, and gender, Danielle Paquette writes about the various groups that are fighting back. The data collection, which was set to begin in March of next year, would have provided the government with a clearer picture of pay scales in order to help target discrimination. [wonkblog]

Friday figure

From “More U.S. men are becoming nurses but not entering other traditionally female occupations” by Bridget Ansel

Should-Read: Peter Leyden: California Is the Future

Should-Read: Peter Leyden: California Is the Future/span>: “Ground Zero: San Francisco…

…So keep an eye on California. In particular, closely watch the San Francisco Bay Area, the region that encompasses Silicon Valley, as our ground zero for 21st-century civilization building. This is the London of our time. Just like London was not the only place for Enlightenment innovation at that time (France, Germany, and even the fledgling United States had a role), the San Francisco Bay Area is not alone. There are other urban centers in American and throughput the world playing a role, but you can’t beat California for its singular importance right now…

Should-Read: Dan Costa: Fast Forward: Scientist, AI Expert, Entrepreneur Vivienne Ming

Should-Read: Dan Costa: Fast Forward: Scientist, AI Expert, Entrepreneur Vivienne Ming: “If you are doing the same job you were doing a year ago, Vivienne Ming is going to replace you with an AI… https://www.pcmag.com/article/351278/fast-forward-scientist-ai-expert-entrepreneur-vivienne-mi

…Vivienne Ming: “Alexa is not AI. Siri is not AI. They are just voice interfaces for database search. There’s some neat stuff behind the scenes, but it’s automation. It’s great automation, I’m not knocking it.

AI to me, the most basic and tangible would be the face recognition and images that Facebook and Google can do. AI is some aspects of self-driving cars. Not everyone, but a lot of them…. Andrew Ng who is the Chief Scientist at Baidu, put it really well. AI is anything that feels uniquely human, but we can do in maybe in a second to five seconds. Now we can build… deep neural networks that can do anything you and I can do that kind of cognitive scale. If I can, for example, look at a resumé and think after about five seconds ‘ah, maybe I won’t hire this person.’ I can build an AI to do that different and better. Real AI is made up of things like face recognition, self-driving cars….

Again, think about a complex judgment. Do I know this person? Are they happy, are they sad? Should I hire them? At least those snap judgments. We can really automate that sort of thing nowadays. There are some implications about that, but that’s what I’m getting at with AI. What’s interesting is just as hard as it can be for me to tell you why I recognize you, why I would hire this person, it turns out we needed these deep neural networks that are almost just as complicated to understand to solve those problems….

I don’t think people should be bent over in fields picking strawberries. I don’t think [miners] should have to go a mile under the ground to mine coal. We can build systems to do that. I don’t mean I can imagine. People are building those technologies right now. They can be deployed and they are better, more efficient, and less costly than a human solution. Then we got to think, what am I going to do with all of those people?…

I build it, I have built systems for diabetes and for bipolar disorder, for finding jobs, for education. I’m truly hooked, I am part of the problem. Did I believe in its potential, does it make the other problems go away? We tend to work under this very optimistic assumption that yes, people are going to lose jobs and they’re going to be financial analysts and farm workers and doctors and long-haul truckers…. We aren’t building people to be creative problem solvers, to be adaptive. We’re building them to pull levers, sometimes very complex, cognitive levers, but still it’s lever pulling. Those people are not going to be ready for an AI-enabled job….

We need craftsmen, we don’t need tools with just legs carrying them around. We need adaptive, creative problem solvers that can then take these amazing technologies and do something amazingly creative with them…. we need to do is move education away from the tool side of the equation. Tools being all the skills and knowledge that I can give you a test and say do you know how to do this…. We need to stop with the focus on tools and think how do we build people that have strong cognitive skills, strong problem solving, metacognition, social and emotional intelligence. These are the things that are actually valuable. Then it turns out once I have those, once I’ve got a bunch of craftsmen I can actually teach you all sorts of tools and then augment it by AIs that can quickly and adaptively change.

Should-Read: In-Koo Cho and Kenneth Kasa: Model Averaging and Persistent Disagreement

Should-Read: In-Koo Cho and Kenneth Kasa: Model Averaging and Persistent Disagreement: “Two agents construct models of an endogenous price process…

…One agent thinks the data are stationary, the other thinks the data are nonstationary. A policymaker combines forecasts from the two models using a recursive Bayesian model averaging procedure. The actual (but unknown) price process depends on the policymaker’s forecasts. The authors find that if the policymaker has complete faith in the stationary model, then beliefs and outcomes converge to the stationary rational expectations equilibrium. However, even a grain of doubt about stationarity will cause beliefs to settle on the nonstationary model, where prices experience large self-confirming deviations away from the stationary equilibrium. The authors show that it would take centuries of data before agents were able to detect their model misspecifications…

Should-Read: Bob Margo: The integration of economic history into economics

Should-Read: Bob Margo: The integration of economic history into economics: “Many have noticed this long-term integration of economic history into economics…

…The integration of economic history into economics can be seen as an interesting example of the historical evolution of scholarly identity. Fields like macroeconomics, or labour economics, exist entirely within economics. Economic history is different, however, in that the boundaries cut across history and economics. As cliometrics became more important in the 1950s and 1960s, the question of identity became more important too. One argument was that cliometricians should meet certain professional norms in history as well as in economics. Robert Fogel was the most notable advocate, but this was widely accepted by the early cliometricians, not just Fogel. Others argued that economic historians should be gadflies, documenting crucial factors in growth and development that economic theory failed to appreciate. This argument is usually associated with Douglass North but it, too, had many adherents. Taken together, the two impulses created an intellectual space apart from the rest of the economics profession in which the early cliometricians, and their students, could function….

Obviously, the past has useful economics (McCloskey 1976), and it’s a good thing that economists of all persuasions embrace historical evidence more readily than just a few decades ago. As integration continues, however, economic history could become subsumed entirely into other fields. If this were to happen, the demand for specialists in economic history might dry up, to the point where obscure but critical knowledge becomes difficult to access or is even lost. In this case, it becomes harder to ‘get the history right’…

Equitable Growth’s Jobs Day Graphs: September 2017 Report Edition

Earlier this morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data on the U.S. labor market during the month of September. Below are five graphs compiled by Equitable Growth staff highlighting important trends in the data.

1.

The prime employment rate hit a new high for this expansion, rising to 78.9 percent in September.

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2.

The black unemployment rate is still far higher than the unemployment rates for whites, but it hit its all time low in September: 7 percent.

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3.

Wage growth picked up in September, but it’s not clear how much of the increase was due to low-wage workers losing work during hurricanes.

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4.

Leisure and hospitality — industries that have been growing strongly during the recovery — lost 111,000 jobs in September. This drop is likely hurricane related.

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5.

While the labor force participation rate picked up in September, the vast majority of workers flowing into employment were previously out of the labor force.

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Should-Read: Peter Leyden et al.: Future of Work

Should-Read: Peter Leyden et al.: Future of Work http://reinvent.net/events/event/future-of-work-kickoff-event/ | http://reinvent.net/events/event/future-of-work-kickoff-event-23-panel/ | http://reinvent.net/events/event/future-of-work-kickoff-event-33-panel-2-qa/ | http://reinvent.net/events/event/future-of-work-kickoff-event-44-breakout-sessions-conclusion/: “I’m Pete Leydon, and I am the founder of Reinvent…

…We try to bring together top innovators in deep conversations to solve complex problems. Our theory of change is that real fundamental innovation—reinvention—comes from a lot of smart innovative folks from different backgrounds in a room in a conversation that goes deep. That is what we have organized.

We also create media. We think if these kinds of conversations happen behind closed doors—which is a lot of strategy consulting—so much gets lost and doesn’t get absorbed. We always capture everything in long-form. You’re all going be on video. It’s a four camera shoot. You’re on as much of the video as people speaking up here. That’s part of the idea. This room is filled with some really amazing folks. And as Kevin Kelly in the early Wired magazine said: nobody’s as smart as everybody. We are going to tap into many many people in the Bay Area here to think through this problem of the future of work…