Things to Read on the Evening of April 14, 2015

Must- and Should-Reads:

Might Like to Be Aware of:

Must-Read: Josh Zumbrun: Is Your Job ‘Routine’? If So, It’s Probably Disappearing

Is Your Job Routine If So It s Probably Disappearing Real Time Economics WSJ

Must-Read: Josh Zumbrun: Is Your Job ‘Routine’? If So, It’s Probably Disappearing: “The American labor market and middle class was once built on the routine job…

…workers showed up at factories and offices, took their places on the assembly line or the paper-pushing chain, did the same task over and over, and then went home. New research from Henry Siu at the University of British Columbia and Nir Jaimovich from Duke University shows just how much the world of routine work has collapsed…. Over the course of the last two recessions and recoveries, a period beginning in 2001, the economy’s job growth has come entirely from nonroutine work…. Examples of routine manual jobs in their classification system include rules-based and physical tasks, such as factory workers who operate welding or metal-press machines, forklift operators or home appliance repairers. Routine cognitive jobs include tasks done by secretaries, bookkeepers, filing clerks or bank tellers…. Nonroutine manual jobs include occupations like janitors or home-health aides. Finally, nonroutine cognitive jobs include tasks like public relations, financial analysis or computer programming….

In the most recent recession, routine jobs collapsed and simply have not recovered, with employment in both cognitive and manual jobs down by more than 5% if the tasks are mostly routine. “Historically these occupations rebounded,” Mr. Siu said. “It suggests a startling fundamental shift in the way the labor market is behaving.”… In the late 1980s, routine cognitive jobs were held by about 17% of the population and routine manual jobs by about 16%. Today, that’s declined to about 13.5% and 12%…. Mr. Siu and Mr. Jaimovich see no reason the trend would abate…

Note that these jobs are “routine” only in the sense that they involve using the human brain as a cybernetic control processor in a manner that was outside the capability of automatic physical machinery or software until a generation ago. In the words of Adam Smith (who probably garbled the story):

In the first fire-engines, a boy was constantly employed to open and shut alternately the communication between the boiler and the cylinder, according as the piston either ascended or descended. One of those boys, who loved to play with his companions, observed that, by tying a string from the handle of the valve which opened this communication to another part of the machine, the valve would open and shut without his assistance, and leave him at liberty to divert himself with his playfellows. One of the greatest improvements that has been made upon this machine, since it was first invented, was in this manner the discovery of a boy who wanted to save his own labour…

And Siu and Jaimovich seem to have gotten the classification wrong: A home-appliance repair technician is not doing a routine job–those jobs are disappearing precisely because they are not routine, require considerable expertise, are hence expensive, and so swirly swapping out the defective appliance for a new one is becoming more and more attractive.

Must-Read: Wolfgang Münchau: Macroeconomists Need New Tools to Challenge Consensus

Wolfgang Münchau: Macroeconomists Need New Tools to Challenge Consensus: Secular stagnation–a sharp fall in growth rates lasting a very long time…

…is not something that you can easily square with the current generation of macroeconomic theories and models…. The advent of chronic instability…. The present tools used by mainstream macroeconomists cannot deal with this adequately. New ones are needed. They exist in other disciplines, but to macroeconomists they look as weird today as the abstract stuff looked to mathematicians of the 19th century. For the moment, the traditionalists still rule. They managed to go beyond the ideological turf wars of the 20th century, by taking a leap towards a new generation of economic models that were technically complex–in the sense of 19th century mathematics…. The so-called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models were…just not able to deal with the shocks we eventually got…. The modern models have at least three questionable features… a single macroeconomic equilibrium… linearity….. Few of these criticisms left a lasting impression on the profession. The mainstream invested a life’s work in developing their DSGE models. They will not let go easily…. My hunch is that, unlike in mathematics, the successful challenge will come from outside the discipline, and that it will be brutal.

Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: Macro Teaching and the Financial Crisis

Simon Wren-Lewis: Macro Teaching and the Financial Crisis: “We end up with textbooks that still have the completely out of date LM curve at their heart (and associated AD curves, plus Mundell Fleming, and even money multipliers)…

…but additional chapters where the AS curve becomes a Phillips curve, and money targeting gives way to Taylor rules. The student ends up totally confused, if they ever get to those later chapters. And after the financial crisis, a new edition will have a chapter devoted to that crisis, but not much in earlier chapters will change. This is not the case with the third textbook by Wendy Carlin and David Soskice… a complete rewrite of their earlier ‘Macroeconomics: Imperfections, Institutions, and Policies’. Luckily all the features of that earlier book that I really liked are retained… a supply side based on imperfect competition… a core model (the 3 equation model) which dispenses with the LM curve, and replaces it with a ‘monetary rule’ curve… open economy analysis is now fully integrated with the 3 equation model…. But by far the most important change… [is] three chapters on the financial sector… banking… a wedge between the ‘policy’ interest rate and the interest rate relevant for the IS curve…. how the financial system can be a source of instability… the financial crisis of 2008…. Mark Gertler on the back cover writes: ‘This is an exciting new textbook. Overall, it confirms my belief that macroeconomics is alive and well’. That pretty well sums up my reaction.

Today’s Must-Must-Read: Matthew Yglesias: A Chart Obamacare’s Critics Have a Hard Time Explaining

A chart that Obamacare s fiercest critics will have a hard time explaining Vox

Matthew Yglesias: A Chart Obamacare’s Critics Have a Hard Time Explaining: “The share of Americans who lack health insurance coverage plunged again last quarter…. More than 3 million… went from uninsured to insured over the past quarter…

…way lower than where it was when the company started counting. Every time one of these quarterly reports comes out, I hear from conservatives saying to me that of course a law that mandates the purchase of insurance and then subsidizes it will succeed in getting people health insurance. And I agree! But conservatives didn’t always. A year or two ago, people up and down the food chain from incredibly popular conservative media celebrities to incredibly obscure conservative think tank wonks were making the case that Obamacare wasn’t expanding coverage. Rush Limbaugh… Rich Lowry… an American Enterprise Institute health policy scholar…. A decline in the uninsured rate is, in part, a reflection of the growing strength of the economy and the accelerating pace of job creation…. [But] conservatives also predicted that Obamacare would destroy the economy. In a 2011 press conference, John Boehner used the phrase ‘job killing’ once every two minutes. Then in 2012 we had the best year of job creation since 2005. In 2013 we had an even better year of job creation. Then in 2014, we had an even better year, the best since 1999.

How to bypass U.S. estate taxes

Tomorrow is tax day, which comes amid a burgeoning debate around our annual payments to Uncle Sam. One particular fight has broken out this week over the estate tax— which affects only those Americans with estates worth more than $5.43 million per person or $10.86 million per married couple. This means the estates of 99.85 percent of all Americans will not be subject to the estate tax.

What’s more, this debate on estate taxes misses one critical point—that a loophole allows many of those who are wealthy enough to face estate taxes to largely bypass the law altogether. This is done through the clever usage of a complicated tax-preferred savings vehicle called a Grantor Retained Annuity Trust, or GRAT, which those at the tippy top of the U.S. wealth and income ladder use to pass on their estate to heirs without it being subject to the full estate tax.

Here’s a basic description of how GRATs work. The first step for the very wealthy is to place a large amount of assets into a GRAT, with instructions that the entire amount should be returned to them over a specified period of time (two annual payments over two years, for example). Because individuals are not taxed when gifting to themselves, no taxes are levied on the original value of the assets placed in GRATs. Any earnings in excess of the assets originally placed in these GRATs accrue to trusts that are bequeathed to specified beneficiaries.

When the GRAT is first set up, the U.S. Internal Revenue Service gives a “gift value” estimate, based on the IRS “Section 7520 Code,” of how much they expect the assets to increase in value. Once the term of the GRAT expires, the wealthy individual who set up the GRAT, the grantor, will have received the original contribution plus this theoretical interest. In December 2014, the 7520 code was 2 percent. So if an individual created a two-year GRAT in that month and put in $1 million, they should receive back the original $1 million contribution and 2 percent interest via annuity payments through December 2016. Any excess appreciation earned beyond the original contribution and IRS assumed rate of return can be transferred to beneficiaries—estate tax free.

Not surprisingly, many savvy grantors will put assets in GRATS that have a good chance of increasing exponentially more than assumed rate of return set by the IRS. Many of the original Facebook founders, for example, put their pre-IPO Facebook stock into GRATs—and then saw their value increase well beyond the predicted IRS rate. Or consider gambling magnate Sheldon Adelson, who set up GRATs during the Great Recession of 2007-2009 using much of his Las Vegas Sands Corp. stock, which had plummeted in value. Because the stocks’ value rebounded as the U.S. economy recovered, he was able to shelter a half a billion dollars for his heirs, none of which will be taxed.

Even if the initial value of the GRAT does not increase to these degrees,  giving heirs $100,000, let’s say (which, relative to some GRATS, is actually small), grantors can continuously reinvest their money in GRATS again and again until they die. And doing so is court approved. A 2000 U.S. tax court ruling found that Audrey Walton’s (part of Walmart Stores, Inc.’s Walton family) GRAT was indeed legal as long as the grantor is alive. If grantors die during the term of their GRATs, all the assets are indeed subject to the inheritance tax (making a short-term, two-year GRAT a popular option among older grantors).

The Obama administration proposes to discourage such practices by requiring a 10-year minimum term on GRATs, but the probability of enacting any kind of restriction in the current political climate is slim. Very wealthy Americans are not obligated to report how much each GRAT passes on to heirs. But one estimate puts the amount that bypassed the estate tax at $100 billion since 2000.

The estate tax was originally enacted in 1916 in order to break up the oligarchic power base created during the Gilded Age of the late 19th century. The soaring wealth gap was not squashed altogether, although it was greatly diminished in part through the economic transformation instigated by World War II. Yet the estate tax has provided a relatively consistent stream of government revenue ever since. What’s troubling, though, is the loophole’s contribution to today’s widening wealth gap, which is at its highest point since the 1920s.

There is a valid debate to be had over the degree to which the estate tax can help alleviate rising wealth and income inequality in the United States, but it remains somewhat irrelevant if the premise on which that debate is based—the existence and enforcement of an estate tax for the wealthiest families—is far too easy to circumvent through the use of GRATs or other similar loopholes.

 

How to bypass U.S. estate taxes

Tomorrow is tax day, which comes amid a burgeoning debate around our annual payments to Uncle Sam. One particular fight has broken out this week over the estate tax— which affects only those Americans with estates worth more than $5.43 million per person or $10.86 million per married couple. This means the estates of 99.85 percent of all Americans will not be subject to the estate tax.

What’s more, this debate on estate taxes misses one critical point—that a loophole allows many of those who are wealthy enough to face estate taxes to largely bypass the law altogether. This is done through the clever usage of a complicated tax-preferred savings vehicle called a Grantor Retained Annuity Trust, or GRAT, which those at the tippy top of the U.S. wealth and income ladder use to pass on their estate to heirs without it being subject to the full estate tax.

Here’s a basic description of how GRATs work. The first step for the very wealthy is to place a large amount of assets into a GRAT, with instructions that the entire amount should be returned to them over a specified period of time (two annual payments over two years, for example). Because individuals are not taxed when gifting to themselves, no taxes are levied on the original value of the assets placed in GRATs. Any earnings in excess of the assets originally placed in these GRATs accrue to trusts that are bequeathed to specified beneficiaries.

When the GRAT is first set up, the U.S. Internal Revenue Service gives a “gift value” estimate, based on the IRS “Section 7520 Code,” of how much they expect the assets to increase in value. Once the term of the GRAT expires, the wealthy individual who set up the GRAT, the grantor, will have received the original contribution plus this theoretical interest. In December 2014, the 7520 code was 2 percent. So if an individual created a two-year GRAT in that month and put in $1 million, they should receive back the original $1 million contribution and 2 percent interest via annuity payments through December 2016. Any excess appreciation earned beyond the original contribution and IRS assumed rate of return can be transferred to beneficiaries—estate tax free.

Not surprisingly, many savvy grantors will put assets in GRATS that have a good chance of increasing exponentially more than assumed rate of return set by the IRS. Many of the original Facebook founders, for example, put their pre-IPO Facebook stock into GRATs—and then saw their value increase well beyond the predicted IRS rate. Or consider gambling magnate Sheldon Adelson, who set up GRATs during the Great Recession of 2007-2009 using much of his Las Vegas Sands Corp. stock, which had plummeted in value. Because the stocks’ value rebounded as the U.S. economy recovered, he was able to shelter a half a billion dollars for his heirs, none of which will be taxed.

Even if the initial value of the GRAT does not increase to these degrees,  giving heirs $100,000, let’s say (which, relative to some GRATS, is actually small), grantors can continuously reinvest their money in GRATS again and again until they die. And doing so is court approved. A 2000 U.S. tax court ruling found that Audrey Walton’s (part of Walmart Stores, Inc.’s Walton family) GRAT was indeed legal as long as the grantor is alive. If grantors die during the term of their GRATs, all the assets are indeed subject to the inheritance tax (making a short-term, two-year GRAT a popular option among older grantors).

The Obama administration proposes to discourage such practices by requiring a 10-year minimum term on GRATs, but the probability of enacting any kind of restriction in the current political climate is slim. Very wealthy Americans are not obligated to report how much each GRAT passes on to heirs. But one estimate puts the amount that bypassed the estate tax at $100 billion since 2000.

The estate tax was originally enacted in 1916 in order to break up the oligarchic power base created during the Gilded Age of the late 19th century. The soaring wealth gap was not squashed altogether, although it was greatly diminished in part through the economic transformation instigated by World War II. Yet the estate tax has provided a relatively consistent stream of government revenue ever since. What’s troubling, though, is the loophole’s contribution to today’s widening wealth gap, which is at its highest point since the 1920s.

There is a valid debate to be had over the degree to which the estate tax can help alleviate rising wealth and income inequality in the United States, but it remains somewhat irrelevant if the premise on which that debate is based—the existence and enforcement of an estate tax for the wealthiest families—is far too easy to circumvent through the use of GRATs or other similar loopholes.

 

Things to Read on the Evening of April 13, 2015

Must- and Should-Reads:

Might Like to Be Aware of:

Over at Grasping Reality: John Maynard Keynes (1934): Is the Economic System Self-Adjusting?

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John Maynard Keynes: Is the Economic System Self-Adjusting?: “I was asked recently to take part in a discussion among English economists on the problem of poverty in the midst of potential plenty…

…which none of us can deny is the outstanding conundrum of today. We all agreed that, whatever the best remedy may be, we must reject all those alleged remedies that consist, in effect, in getting rid of the plenty. It may be true, for various reasons, that as the potential plenty increases, the problem of getting the fruits of it distributed to the great body of consumers will present increasing difficulties. But it is to the analysis and solution of these difficulties that we must direct our minds.

Assessing the Affordable Care Act

Anybody get to this? What was said that was unexpected?

Assessing the Affordable Care Act’s efficacy, implementation, and policy implications five years later | Brookings Institution:

April 14, 2015 :: 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM EDT :: Brookings Institution
Washington, DC

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), most commonly known as the Affordable Care Act (ACA), is one of the most important pieces of legislation enacted into law and implemented by the federal government in a generation. The ACA is also one of the most complex and comprehensive efforts to reform the American health care system and reduce costs. Now that the ACA is five years old, how successful has the law been in meeting its primary goals? What has been its efficacy in transforming American health care? What have been the major outcomes and unintended consequences? And what might the future hold for this law, given today’s political environment and a pending, major U.S. Supreme Court decision that could determine the ACA’s fate? On April 14, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a forum to examine the ACA five years after its passage…