The new overtime rule is “good economics and good business”

Photograph of Franklin D. Roosevelt taken on Jan. 19, 1937.

Millions of Americans may soon be getting a raise, or at least will gain more time away from the office after a standard 40-hour workweek. The Department of Labor is set to issue a final ruling to expand the Fair Labor Standard Act’s overtime coverage today, making salaried workers earning up to $47,476 a year eligible for time-and-a-half pay if they work beyond a 40-hour week. The Obama Administration estimates that the new regulations, which go into effect on December 1st, will extend overtime protections to more than 4 million workers (with others estimating more).

The ruling is the first substantial update to the threshold since 1975, which covered 62 percent of salaried employees at the time. But because the overtime rule was not tied to inflation, today’s current threshold of $23,660 is below the poverty line for a family of four and covers only 7 percent of the salaried workforce. The updated provision allows for future increases every three years.

The new rule will obviously help individual workers, but these work-hour protections also deliver significant benefits for the entire economy as well. When the Fair Labor Standards Act was first enacted in 1938 by President Franklin D. Roosevelt at the height of the Great Depression, champions of the overtime provision argued that it would not just mitigate overwork but also encourage employers to “spread the work” by hiring more people working fewer hours. Roosevelt also urged businesses concerned about the initial cost of hiring more workers to consider that increasing employment would indirectly inject some much-needed cash into the struggling economy. As Roosevelt said in 1933:

I ask that managements give first consideration to the improvement of operating figures by greatly increased sales to be expected from the rising purchasing power of the public. That is good economics and good business. The aim of this whole effort is to restore our rich domestic market by raising its vast consuming capacity.

Today’s economy differs from that of the 1930s, yet, in an economy that is not operating at full capacity, this policy is likely to put more money into workers’ pockets. A bigger paycheck boosts their ability to buy goods and services—a key economic engine for domestic growth. That is because workers that will benefit from these policies are more likely to spend the extra money they earn.

Even if employers respond to the new overtime rules by limiting hours, which has been cited as a criticism of the new regulations, the extra time workers gain—time spent investing in one’s health, education, community, or family– may be just as valuable to some workers. Exhaustion from overwork takes a detrimental toll on one’s mental and physical health, relationship, or even one’s children. That may be why, when University of Pennsylvania, Abington’s Lonnie Golden undertook a 2013 survey of 1,000 adults, he found that one in five workers would take a 20 percent pay cut in exchange for one fewer day of work.

Because there are a certain number of fixed costs associated with each individual employee, it may seem like a cost-effective business strategy to have fewer employees work longer hours, especially if an employer does not have to pay them overtime. But Stanford University’s John Pencavel finds that, generally speaking, a worker’s output drops sharply if they routinely work beyond 49 hours a week (even if you think you are getting a lot done). If you tend to stick around the office late at night on a routine basis, you are getting little work done at the expense of your own well-being.

This costs companies money. One study contends that in 2007, fatigued workers cost employers more than $100 billion annually in lost productivity. Overtime also raises the rate of mistakes and safety mishaps, which put the general public at risk. Federal regulators, for example, found that a truck driver’s extreme fatigue due to many hours on the road was the main causes in the crash that killed comedian James McNair and critically injured Tracy Morgan.

More standardized work hours also make it easier for those with outside obligations to navigate the demands of work and life, which has implications on a national scale: When employers require long hours, it means they are less likely to hire those with caregiving or other outside responsibilities. Because women still take on the bulk of the caregiving responsibilities, long hours may push some women out of the workforce. This doesn’t just harm female workers: Because women are graduating from college and graduate school in higher numbers than men, employers miss out on the opportunity to hire the most qualified people for the job.

Fewer women in the labor market also harms the economy as a whole. Research by Equitable Growth’s Heather Boushey and John Schmitt, and Eileen Appelbaum at the Center for Economic and Policy Research found that that U.S. gross domestic product would have been about 11 percent lower in 2012 if women had not increased their working hours as they did since 1979. That translates to $1.7 trillion less in output—similar to what the combined U.S. spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid in 2012.

There is no doubt that workers and their families cannot succeed without hard work. But we must be more mindful of the consequences for individuals, businesses, and the economy alike associated with working without limitations. The new overtime rule, which will disproportionately help women, workers under 35, African Americans, Hispanics, and workers with lower educations, is an important step.

Must-read: Ben Thompson: “China Watching”

Must-Read: Ben Thompson: China Watching: “I am often asked why I don’t write more about China…

…the reason, as I’ve explained in the past, is that the country, particularly anything having to do with the government–which by extension covers all big businesses, tech included–is basically unknowable to an outsider, and the more you learn about China, the more you realize this is the case. To that end, while I feel relatively confident about what I am going to write, given the Chinese angle I am unashamed to admit that I could be 100% wrong; frustratingly, we will probably never know for sure…

Must-read: Marshall Steinbaum: “Uber’s Antitrust Problem”

Must-Read: Are Uber and companies like it anti-rent seeking plays? Yes. Are they regulatory arbitrage plays? Yes. Are they behavioral economics plays–exploiting their workers who don’t properly calculate depreciation? Plausibly. What’s the proper balance? Allowing Uber to claim that its workers are in no sense its employees is surely wrong. Shielding existing rent-seeking monopolies created by regulatory capture from competition from Uber and its ilk is also surely wrong:

Marshall Steinbaum: Uber’s Antitrust Problem: “The Uber lawsuit captures the key question facing policymakers struggling to regulate the ‘gig’ and ‘platform’ economies…

…Are the new behemoths of the tech sector innovators that make the economy more efficient by ‘disrupting’ antiquated business models? Or are they just the trusts of a second Gilded Age, their new-fangled apps the equivalent of the railroad networks that monopolized commerce and access to markets 126 years ago, when the Sherman Act first took effect?

Until now, Uber and its fellow tech giants have managed to mystify policymakers and judges with double-speak regarding their relationship with employees. But in his decision allowing the case to move forward, Judge Rakoff wrote: ‘The advancement of technological means for the orchestration of large-scale price-fixing conspiracies need not leave antitrust law behind.’ Now one court has the chance to decide whether Uber can continue to have it both ways.

Must-reads: May 18, 2016

Must-Read: Ben Thompson: Apple in China

Must-Read: Ben Thompson: Apple in China: “Apple… with its model of status-delivering hardware differentiated by software locked to its devices…

…has been uniquely successful in the world’s most populous country. [And] for many years Apple’s model freed them from the usual hoops that most Western tech companies have had to jump through to get a piece of the irresistible Chinese market. For example:

  • Microsoft spends $500 million a year in China, mostly at its Beijing R&D center (its largest outside of Redmond), and has promised to up that total after a recent antitrust investigation
  • Cisco pledged to invest $10 billion in China last year after being increasingly frozen out from Chinese purchases after the Edward Snowden revelations
    Qualcomm, after settling an antitrust case, formed a $280 million joint venture with a provincial government that included technology transfer
  • Intel has promised up to $5.5 billion to transform a chip plant that it originally said would be two generations behind to become cutting edge; a few months later the company formed a joint venture with two local firms in direct response to Chinese concern about reliance on foreign companies in the chip industry. That follows a previous $1.5 billion investment in two other chipmakers partially owned by the Chinese government
  • Dell adopted a new strategy last fall predicated on partnering in China to the tune of $125 billion over five years, forming a joint venture with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and deep partnerships with Kingsoft Corporation for work in the cloud ‘fully supporting and embracing the China ‘Internet+’ national strategy.’

The Internet+ strategy is a plan to integrate the Internet with traditional industries, but its introduction has gone hand-in-hand with an increasingly strong preference for Chinese technology from Chinese firms. Thus the partnerships, joint ventures, and investment. And yet, until now, the most successful American tech company in China has operated mostly without interference…

Today’s Economic History: John Maynard Keynes (1919): “I personally despair of results from anything except violent and ruthless truth-telling…”

Today’s Economic History: John Maynard Keynes (1919): To Jan Smuts: “Ruthless Truth-Telling”: “My book [The Economic Consequences of the Peace] is completed and will be issued in a fortnight’s time…

…I am now so saturated with it that I am quite unable to make any judgement on its contents. But the general condition of Europe at this moment seems to demand some attempt at an éclairecissement of the situation created by the Treaty [of Versailles ending World War I], even more than when I first sat down to write. We are faced not only by the isolation policy of the U.S., but also by a very similar tendency in this country. There is a growing an intelligible disposition to withdraw (like America), so far as we can, from the complexity, the expense, and the unintelligibility of the European problems: and particularly as regards financial assistance, the Treasury is inclined, partly as a result of our own financial difficulties and partly because of the hopelessness of doing anything effective in the absence of American help, to let Europe stew. Also anti-German feeling here is, still, stronger than I should have expected.  But perhaps most alarming is the lethargy of the European people themselves. They seem to have no plan; they take hardly any steps to help themselves; and even their appeals appear half-hearted. It looks as though we were in for a slow steady deterioration of the general conditions of human life, rather than for any sudden upheaval or catastrophe. But one can’t tell.

Anyhow, attempts to humour or placate Americans or anyone else seem quite futile, and I personally despair of results from anything except violent and ruthless truth-telling–that will work in the end, even if slowly…

Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: A General Theory of Austerity

Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: A General Theory of Austerity: “I start by making a distinction… between fiscal consolidation, which is a policy decision, and austerity, which is an outcome where that fiscal consolidation leads to an increase in aggregate unemployment…

…Monetary policy can normally stop fiscal consolidation leading to austerity, but cannot when interest rates are stuck near zero…. I say that austerity is nearly always unnecessary… has nothing to do with markets: the Eurozone crisis from 2010 to 2012 was a result of mistakes by the ECB. If a union member’s government debt is not sustainable, there needs to be some form of default (Greece). If it is sustainable, then the central bank should back that government, as the ECB ended up doing with OMT in 2012…. None of this theory is at all new….

That makes the question of why policy makers made the mistake all the more pertinent. One set of arguments point to… austerity as an accident… Greece happened at a time when German orthodoxy was dominant…. [But this] does not explain what happened in the US and UK…. The set of arguments that I think have more force… reflect political opportunism on the political right which is dominated by a ‘small state’ ideology…. [But] how was the economics known since Keynes lost to simplistic household analogies[?]…. [And why] in this recession, but not in earlier economic downturns?… It does not have to be this way…. We cannot be complacent that when the next liquidity trap recession hits the austerity mistake will not be made again…

Equity crowdfunding is here. Now what?

Photo of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission building, in Washington, DC.

It’s taken almost four years, but now any American, regardless of their income level, can invest in start-ups. Known as equity crowdfunding, this change to regulation seemingly throws open the door for everyday Americans to invest in companies that aren’t yet listed on public stock exchanges such as NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange. As part of the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act, or JOBS Act, the crowdfunding provision was developed in the hope that it would, as the name says, jumpstart small business formation. And at the same time, with high-growth companies increasing staying private, some people hope equity crowdfunding will broaden investor access to the high-returns of these young firms beyond venture capitalists, institutional investors, and high-net-worth individuals.

But with investing officially allowed today, it seems unlikely either of these dreams will come to fruition any time soon. That’s not to says that the U.S. economy isn’t in need of a jumpstart when it comes to new business creation. The start-up rate has been on the decline since the 1980s without any sign the trend is about to reverse. Not only are startups less likely, but the decline has been very pronounced for high-growth startups. In short, there are fewer startups and the ones that do exist grow slower.

A policy change that accelerates business startups and their growth would certainly be welcomed. The reasons for the decline in the startup rate (and overall business dynamism) aren’t well understood. But it seems unlikely that access to capital is a powerful reason, as credit became more available at the same time that the startup rate began declining.

But even if capital were at the heart of the problem when it comes to high-growth startup, the new equity crowdfunding measures seem unlikely to help. When the rule was finalized by the Securities and Exchange Commission late last year, Nick Tommarello of the investment crowdfunding platform WeFunder wrote about some of his concerns with the rule. His chief concern: The rule doesn’t allow newly eligible investors (those who weren’t already rich enough to invest before) to pool their funds together to invest in new firms looking for investors.

As Tommarello explains, because high-growth startups with a large number of investors may scare away later-stage investors, they prefer to lump the crowdfunders together into  one bigger fund. This means the new regulation will make it extremely difficult if not impossible for everyday Americans to invest in potential high-growth startups. Recipients of new funding will most likely be firms that didn’t have access to funding previously and have a low growth potential. These small businesses may be good businesses, but they likely aren’t the kind that’ll significantly boost employment and productivity growth in the United States.

This part of the regulation also means that average investors won’t have direct access to the kind of returns that accredited investors and venture capital funds do. Now, that might be a good thing as these kinds of investments are high-risk. Given the state of saving in the United States, policymakers may not want to encourage everyday Americans to invest in such risky assets. Perhaps traditional mutual funds may be able to provide some access to these returns in the future, though their current experience valuing these kinds of firms might make us less optimistic on that front.

Increasing business dynamism in the U.S. economy is vital to long-term economic growth and prosperity. In a period of weak productivity growth, new high-growth entrepreneurial firms have the potential to help boost the productive capacity of our economy in the long-run. Unfortunately, it seems the JOBS Act, one of the first efforts in this area, is unlikely to be a big step forward. But in the spirit of startups, we should pick ourselves up quickly from this misstep, dust ourselves off, and pivot to the next idea.

Must-reads: May 17, 2016

Must-read: Kara Scannell and Vanessa Houlder: “US Tax Havens–The New Switzerland”

Must-Read: Kara Scannell and Vanessa Houlder: US Tax Havens–The New Switzerland: “In an old discount store hugging a corner in downtown Sioux Falls, South Dakota…

…the heirs to the William Wrigley chewing gum fortune have an office for their family trust. So do the Carlson family, owners of the Radisson hotel chain, and the family of John Nash, the late hedge fund giant. They are among the 40 trust companies sharing an address at 201 South Phillips Avenue, a modest, two-storey white-brick building. Inside, $80bn worth of trust assets are administered…. Assets held in South Dakotan trusts have grown from $32.8bn in 2006 to more than $226bn in 2014…