Must-Read: Jason Furman: @jasonfurman on Twitter

Must-Read: Jason Furman: @jasonfurman on Twitter: “THREAD. New results from Penn-Wharton Budget Model show wage effects of corporate tax changes…

…Under the default parameters cutting the corporate rate LOWERS wages. A well-designed plan a modest positive. You can try your own options….

I am looking at two plans. (1) Cut in the corporate rate to 20% without other changes, which is what CEA modeled. (2) Cut corp rate to 20%, has permanent expensing, disallows interest deductions, and broadens the base—House plan likely less pro-growth. For comparability to CEA’s “very conservative” $4,000 I am showing the %age change in labor income applied to 2016 household wages. I am showing all of the results for every combination of parameters in the PWBM—with a thicker line for their default assumptions.

Here is what it looks like for the 20% rate cut:

PWBM

The default case is a wage decline but could be plus or minus ~$1,000. The +$1,000 case assumes the United States is a small open economy with complete capital mobility and no supernormal returns, FWIW….

With sensible/permanent design, modest wage increases in most scenarios. House plan likely much less well designed: maybe temporary/more limited expensing, maintain some interest deduction, & less base broadening….

Lazear, Kotlikoff, @MichaelRStrain, @aparnamath, @taxfoundation, Mankiw toy example all below CEA’s “very conservative” lower bound…. Debt weighs on the economy increasingly over time. Not sure what to make of jump in first yr, OLG models not designed to answer very SR Qs…. Medium/long results similar to past Treasury/JCT. These models capture complexity missing in simple finger exercises (eg, much I expensed already, EMTR up on those when statutory rate down)…

Must- and Should-Reads: October 30, 2017


Links

The gender gap in economics has ramifications far beyond the ivory tower

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, left, listens as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, right, speaks during a conversation at the IMF.

It’s no secret that the economics profession has a problem with women. In the wake of the publication of a University of California, Berkeley undergraduate’s senior thesis on sexism in economics, which drew widespread media attention, the conversation around the obstacles female economists face and the effect on the profession overall is now front and center. A new working paper by University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill’s Anusha Chari and Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham of the New York Federal Reserve adds a new layer to the conversation, focusing on the women represented within individual subfields at a prestigious annual economics conference. They find that the overall share of women participating in the conference barely budged over the past 15 years and that there are even larger disparities within certain subfields.

Even as women such as U.S Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen have ascended to the top of their field, women still only make up 30 percent of Ph.Ds. in economics and only 15 percent of full professors—a statistic that has hardly changed over the past 20 years. This gender gap in economics stands in stark contrast to other social sciences, which are much more balanced, and is even worse than many STEM fields. Racial diversity is even rarer: Only 6.3 percent of tenured and tenured-track economists identified as black or Hispanic.

The women who do make it, according to Chari and Goldsmith-Pinkham’s work, tend to be segregated into certain subdisciplines. The authors look at the gender breakdown from 2001 to 2016 at the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute conference, a major invite-only symposium showcasing the latest research across the economics profession. They find that while 20.6 percent of the authors on scheduled papers were women, that share dropped 16.3 percent for macroeconomics and 14.4 percent for finance. In contrast, 25.9 percent of the authors in microeconomics and labor are women. These subdisciplines include fields such as education, aging, health care economics, and children. These specialties tend to be less prestigious than the more male-dominated fields of finance and macroeconomics.

What’s more, some female economists have spoken up about how they’ve been discouraged by male colleagues from explicitly studying gender until they have received tenure. The reason: They are told it could hurt their careers.

The lack of women in economics—and their segregation into certain subfields—boast ramifications beyond individual women’s careers. Research establishes how economic policymakers’ life experiences affect the issues they elevate and the way they vote in the present. That makes the gender disparities within economics even more problematic because of the economics profession’s influence in determining public policy. There is statistical evidence that male and female economists think differently about many critical policy issues, even when controlling for age and type of employment. Unsurprisingly, that includes views on gender and equal opportunity, to cite one example, but the dissimilarities also extend to topics not explicitly about gender such as the minimum wage, labor standards, government regulation, and health insurance. Some female economists argue that large gender imbalances mean that the conventional wisdom on any given economic topic is likely to be biased and could overlook the ways in which policies affect women and men differently.

Chari and Goldsmith-Pinkham did not examine race in their study, but the same logic can apply to the lack of racial diversity within economics as well. Last year, former Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota reflected on how the lack of racial and ethnic diversity within the Federal Reserve system created blind spots with tangible effects on communities of color. More diversity, for example, could mean that more attention would be paid to promote maximum employment, which could reduce racial inequality given that the black unemployment rate is much higher than the white unemployment rate.

There is a great deal of research that details the way gender, race, and ethnic diversity is good for productivity. Reducing barriers to diversity also is the right thing to do. But given the extent to which every individual’s life is intertwined with the economy, the need to increase diversity in economics is not just about fairness or productivity within the ivory tower. It affects whether and how the needs of everyone—and not just certain groups—are reflected in our understanding of the economy and accounted for in our national policies.

Alan Auerbach: Five Questions for Congress on Tax Reform

Must-Read: I wish that the extremely sharp Alan Auerbach would turn his concern knob up a bit more—in fact, I wish he would turn it up to 11. He says: “change in the guise of [tax] reform has the capacity to make things worse, and the secretive, often chaotic nature of the current process provides ample opportunity to do so…” I wish he would say: “the secretive and constantly chaotic nature of the current tax reform process makes it inevitable that it will end up making things worse…” Nobody should have any illusions that Republican congressional leaders know what they are doing—any more than they knew what they were doing with their health care fiasco:

Alan Auerbach: Five Questions for Congress on Tax Reform: “Congressional leaders say they’re working on a corporate tax reform…

…Yet… they’re keeping their plans under wraps until the last moment, with rumors and leaks serving as the main form of advance discussion…. A framework so we can quickly assess any proposals that emerge…. Does the plan have temporary provisions, and how are they justified?… The “big six” proposal… would allow companies to fully deduct short-lived capital investment… “for at least five years”… presumably because a permanent tax break would look a lot more expensive…. This is worse than a mere budget trick: The temporary nature of the measure would also distort investment incentives and increase uncertainty. This week’s fiasco over reducing the limit on contributions to 401(k) retirement accounts was also about the timing of tax revenues… Roth 401(k) accounts… are taxed up front…. Does the plan pay for itself in the long run, using realistic forecasts?… How does the plan address the deductibility of interest?… A 2016 proposal from House Republicans offered a sensible… scrap the interest deduction, but allow companies to fully expense all capital investments…. The big six proposal, by contrast, calls for only a partial limitation on interest deductions for C corporations, with no details provided…. How would the plan prevent companies from avoiding taxes by moving their operations or profits abroad?… There’s a simple and complete solution: Levy tax based on where a company’s products are services are used…. Unfortunately, the big six has already rejected this approach….

How would the plan prevent people from using pass-through businesses to avoid personal income tax?… To prevent this from happening, any plan will have to include serious enforcement measures—such as taxing a certain share of reported business income as ordinary income.

The U.S. business tax system sorely needs reform, particularly in the way it deals with multinational corporations. But we must pay close attention to what Congress and the Trump administration propose. Change in the guise of reform has the capacity to make things worse, and the secretive, often chaotic nature of the current process provides ample opportunity to do so.

Kim Clausing: Would Cutting [U.S.] Corporate Taxes Raise Workers’ Incomes?

Should-Read: Kim Clausing gets one wrong. Greg Mankiw does not say that “it is possible for a 1 dollar reduction in corporate taxes to result in a more than 1 dollar increase in wages”. He says, instead: in a model in which the U.S. is a small open economy, in which all corporate profits are a return to capital investment (rather than some of them being rents, returns to bearing risk, or market power), in which the revenue lost is made up by other taxes that do not cause economic distortions, then at least the “static” assessment is that a one dollar reduction in corporate taxes generates a 1/(1-t) dollar increase in wages.

Now since the U.S. is not a small open economy, since a substantial share of corporate profits are not returns to corporate investment, since steps to rebalance the public fisc will induce other economic distortions, and since misinterprets what a “static” assessment is (or—more likely, I think—made an algebraic error), he in fact does not say that it is conceptually possible that “cutting [U.S.] corporate taxes [would] raise workers’ incomes”. Nevertheless, he leaves himself open to Clausing’s thumbnail as a summary:

Kim Clausing: Would Cutting [U.S.] Corporate Taxes Raise Workers’ Incomes?: “Overall, it is difficult to document a relationship between lower corporate taxes and higher wages…

…Some… including Jason Furman, Lawrence Summers, and Paul Krugman, found it implausible to argue that for every dollar of corporate tax cut, workers wages would rise by at least $2.50, and perhaps as much as $5.50, as implied by the CEA’s report. Other economists have argued that it is possible for a $1 reduction in corporate taxes to result in a more than $1 increase in wages (see for instance Casey Mulligan and Greg Mankiw), but even most of those economists do not back the wildly optimistic numbers of the CEA report.

Some cross-country analyses report a pattern between higher corporate taxes and lower wages, but these studies have some important limitations; I have found no empirical evidence in my own research to support the idea that countries with higher corporate tax rates have lower wages…

Should-Read: Cosma Shalizi: Review of Gillian Tett, Fool’s Gold: How the Bold Dream of a Small Tribe at J. P. Morgan Was Corrupted by Wall Street Greed and Unleashed a Catastrophe

Should-Read: Cosma Shalizi Review of Gillian Tett, Fool’s Gold: How the Bold Dream of a Small Tribe at J. P. Morgan Was Corrupted by Wall Street Greed and Unleashed a Catastrophe http://bactra.org/reviews/fools-gold/: “This is an extremely smart and well-written look at the growth and explosion of credit derivatives, as told through the story of Tett’s sources at J. P. Morgan…

…It’s a really good book, which painlessly explains a lot of the details of how we got into the present mess, and I strongly recommend it. That said, Tett clearly sympathizes with her informants, and while she doesn’t exactly re-touch and air-brush their portraits for maximum flattery, they’re ones reasonable people would be happy with. A less becoming picture of the same facts begins like so: In the early to mid 1990s, the Morgan bank had a group of arrogant, inexperienced young financiers who looked at the damage then being done by unregulated financial derivatives, and decided the key institutions of the capitalist economy need some of that. Historically, a major role of banks has been to help provide corporate governance, which (as Uncle Norbert would remind you) relies on information. When firms go to banks for credit, they have to disclose lots of information about their finances, workings and plans which would normally stay locked inside the firm. (The firm does not want its rivals to know these things.) Banks have allocated capital, or not, on the basis of this information….

What the Morgan crew did was figure out a way of using derivatives to let a bank take a portfolio of loans and sell the risk of the loans in chunks to institutions outside the banks…. On the buyers’ side, the securities (“synthetic collateralized debt obligations”, in the jargon) were supposed to be safe because they were diversified across many borrowers; also they were structured so that all the buyers with low-grade securities would have to be wiped out before the payments to high-grade securities were cut….

In short, the group at Morgan decided to change the way a basic capitalist institution worked, on the basis of abstract ideological principles, without any concern for its real-world effects, or the hard-won experience embodied in the social order they had inherited. (No doubt it helped that they all considered each other super-smart.)…

It is at this point, after the victory of an elitist cadre of self-serving ideologues, that what Tett calls the “corruption” set in. The original Morgan group were rationalistic social engineers filled with hubris, but even they realized there were limits on the trick they devised. To pull it off, the bank had to estimate the risk not just of any one loan in the portfolio defaulting, but of groups of them doing so at once, which meant estimating the correlations among loan defaults. In the nature of things, this is much harder than just estimating the risk of a single loan, and in many cases, like defaults on sub-prime mortgages, the data just wasn’t there to support any sensible kind of estimation. (Cf..) The Morgan team realized this, and so did only a few mortgage deals. The rest of the industry was not so scrupulous…. Morgan suffered from its comparative restraint, and, had the bubble lasted just a bit longer, would probably have been forced to join in by its shareholders.)…

After turning Tett’s flattering portrayals into mug-shots, the truth is I find myself sympathizing with her protagonists. They are obviously nostalgic for being talented young people working on an innovative common project which they really believed in, and why not? That is a wonderful thing. (I can only imagine that being paid very well for being geniuses together enhances the experience.) Hearing about how their handiwork brought the global economy to its knees can’t feel good…

Should-Read: Equitable Growth: Research on Tap: Promoting equitable growth through tax reform

Should-Read: Equitable Growth: Research on Tap: Promoting equitable growth through tax reform: “Join us on November 6, 2017, for the second event in Equitable Growth’s new ‘Research on Tap”’ conversation series…

…a space for drinks, dialogue, and debate. The conversation will focus on three questions at the intersection of tax policy, inequality, and growth: What is equitable growth? What can tax reform do to promote it? And how would tax reform motivated by the pursuit of equitable growth compare with the version represented by proposals from the Trump administration and Congress?… Jason Furman… Melissa Kearney… Greg Leiserson…

Should-Read: Jess Benhabib, Alberto Bisin, and Mi Luo: Wealth distribution and social mobility in the US: A quantitative approach

Should-Read: Jess Benhabib, Alberto Bisin, and Mi Luo: Wealth distribution and social mobility in the US: A quantitative approach: “We concentrate on… i) skewed and persistent distribution of earnings…

…ii) differential saving and bequest rates across wealth levels, and iii) stochastic idiosyncratic returns to wealth (capital income risk), possibly differential across wealth levels. All of these factors are fundamental for matching both distribution and mobility, each with a distinct role in inducing wealth accumulation near the borrowing constraints, contributing to the thick top tail of wealth, and affecting upward and/or downward social mobility. The stochastic process for capital income risk which best fits the cross-sectional distribution of wealth and social mobility in the U.S. shares several statistical properties with those of the returns to wealth uncovered by Fagereng et al. (2017) from tax records in Norway…

Should-Read: Bridget Ansel and Heather Boushey: Modernizing U.S. Labor Standards for 21st-Century Families

Should-Read: Bridget Ansel and Heather Boushey: Modernizing U.S. Labor Standards for 21st-Century Families: “Women now make up almost half the U.S. workforce…

Our labor laws and institutions do little to address the various ways in which women are held back at work. This not only hampers women’s economic well-being, but also has implications for U.S. productivity, labor force participation, and economic growth…. Ansel and Boushey propose policies aimed at boosting women’s economic outcomes: paid family leave, fair scheduling, and combatting wage discrimination. They show how enacting carefully designed policies will better address the challenges of today’s labor force, enhance women’s economic outcomes, and provide benefits for the national economy…

Weekend reading: the “fiscal highlights” edition

This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth published this week and the second is the work we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

Equitable Growth round-up

This week’s Working Paper release focuses on the effectiveness of government incentive programs to attract new investments and new businesses. University of Texas at Austin’s Nathan Jensen argues that the Texas Chapter 313 (tax abatements) program attracted 15 percent of firms while the other 85 percent would still have been invested without this incentive program.

GDP growth for the third quarter of 2017 was released this morning. Austin Clemens explains why GDP growth can be a misleading indicator of what’s actually happening in the economy and suggests that the government should expand what it measures.

Links from around the web

The Republican tax plan aims at stopping companies from shifting their revenue, investments, and employment to other countries. Rex Nutting argues that the Trump-Ryan plan will actually encourage more corporate offshore tax avoidance. [MarketWatch]

Should economists have predicted the Great Recession? A Princeton University working paper argues that in the 1980s and the early 1990s—a period with a significant rise in lending followed by a recession—could have predicted the severe 2007-2009 economic downturn. [Woodrow Wilson School]

The Republican tax plan would raise average household income, according to the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Larry Summers says the numbers don’t add up and other economists, including Jason Furman, pointed to the extreme optimism of the White House’s projections. [The New Yorker] [The Wall Street Journal]

Thomas Piketty’s review of historical economic data launched a wide discussion on wealth and income inequality. Now Richard Sutch has completed a review of Piketty’s evidence that he says shows Piketty’s data on 19th century wealth in America is unreliable. Noah Smith reviews the evidence and what it might mean for Piketty’s theory. [Bloomberg View]

The American Dream seems to have come to an end. Nowadays, only 50 percent of U.S. children will do better, economically speaking, compared to their parents. Stanford University’s Raj Chetty argues that chances of succeeding vary widely between zip codes and that’s why solutions to economic mobility have to be local. [CityLab]

Both the House and the Senate have now passed budgets that make tax reform possible. As Republican talked about a tax abatements on repatriated foreign income, Martin Sandbu argues that companies’ foreign profits are actually not trapped offshore. [Financial Times]

A recent working paper released by Amanda Bayer and David Wilcox addresses the unequal economic education distribution among U.S. college graduates. [The Fed]

The Federal Reserve Board is supposed to be independent of U.S. political institutions. But According to Sarah Binder and Mark Spindel, the Federal Reserve’s independence is largely a myth. [The Upshot]

Friday figure

From “Here’s why you should interpret tomorrow’s GDP growth estimate skeptically” by Austin Clemens.