Things to Read on the Afternoon of July 3, 2015

Must- and Should-Reads:

Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Europe’s Many Economic Disasters

Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Europe’s Many Economic Disasters: “It’s depressing thinking about Greece…

…So let’s talk about something else… Finland, which couldn’t be more different from that corrupt, irresponsible country to the south… a model European citizen; it has honest government, sound finances and a solid credit rating, which lets it borrow money at incredibly low interest rates. It’s also in the eighth year of a slump that has cut real gross domestic product per capita by 10 percent and shows no sign of ending…. If it weren’t for the nightmare in southern Europe, the… Finnish economy might well be seen as an epic disaster. And Finland isn’t alone. It’s part of an arc of economic decline that extends across northern Europe through Denmark–which isn’t on the euro, but is managing its money as if it were–to the Netherlands. All of these countries are, by the way, doing much worse than France…. And what about southern Europe outside Greece?… Spain… real income per capita that is still down 7 percent from its pre-crisis level. Portugal has also obediently implemented harsh austerity — and is 6 percent poorer than it used to be….

What’s striking at this point is how much the origin stories of European crises differ…. The Greek government borrowed too much…the Spanish government didn’t… private lending and a housing bubble… Finland’s story doesn’t involve debt… [but] weak demand for forest products… and the stumbles of Finnish manufacturing…. What all of these economies have in common, however, is that by joining the eurozone they put themselves into an economic straitjacket…. [Was] creating the euro… a mistake? Well, yes. But that’s not the same as saying that it should be eliminated now that it exists. The urgent thing now is to loosen that straitjacket… a unified system of bank guarantees… a willingness to offer debt relief… a more favorable overall environment… by renouncing excessive austerity and doing everything possible to raise Europe’s underlying inflation rate–currently below 1 percent–at least back up to the official target of 2 percent. But there are many European officials and politicians who are opposed to anything and everything that might make the euro workable, who still believe that all would be well if everyone exhibited sufficient discipline. And that’s why there is even more at stake in Sunday’s Greek referendum than most observers realize.

Must-Read: Angel Ubide: A Political and Intellectual Proxy War over Greece

Must-Read: There is an astonishing antinomy in this column by the Peterson Institute’s Angel Ubide. (A) On the one hand, he says Greek nationalists and Keynesians are cynically and reprehensibly sacrificing the people of Greece in a proxy war to try to advance their anti-EU and anti-austerity views.

(B) On the other hand, he says that the nationalists–who complain that the EU is being run for the benefit of German bankers, German bank depositors, and German exporters rather than for the continent as a whole–and the Keynesians–who complain that the austerity and the lack of debt reorganization imposed on Greece is simply insane–are right.

I think Ubide should pull this back, think hard, rewrite it, and try again when he has decided whether he thinks Greece should (A) accept the Troika offer or (B) hold out for, in his words, what it deserves: “massive external assistance… the resources needed–including conditional debt relief… whatever it takes to help the Greek people recover from this tragedy…”

Angel Ubide: A Political and Intellectual Proxy War over Greece: “The conflict is a proxy for two wars—one intellectual and one political…

…in which the Greek people, especially the poor, have been taken hostage. The intellectual war is over the sustainability of the euro project and the economic effects of austerity policies. The political war is over populist and nationalistic policies…. Propaganda has taken over…. The Greek government has taken the country to the brink by calling a referendum on the program at a time when it knew such a step would lead to capital controls and bank closures. Neither the form nor the content of Tsipras’ request was conducive to an extension of the program. The rules were clear to everybody, including the Greek government. Capital controls and bank closures hurt growth….

This proxy war supporting Grexit is being fought to support the cause of Keynesian fiscal policies in the United States and the United Kingdom, of economists and others who want to say ‘I told you so’ about the unfeasibility of the euro, and of activists who want to promote populist policies elsewhere…. American pundits won’t have to live with the consequences of their advice. This proxy war must end. What Greece needs is a government that can provide lasting and credible political stability, liberalize the economy, break down oligopolies, reduce clientelism, and unlock growth…

But also:

There have certainly been mistakes made in the operation of the euro institutions…. Greece has sharply reduced its fiscal deficit—in fact, probably too much…. All parties involved have made mistakes, and Greece has suffered enormously. Regardless of the referendum outcome, the Greek economy is going to need massive external assistance…. After the referendum, Europe must re-engage with Greece, devote all the resources needed—including conditional debt relief—and, paraphrasing Mario Draghi, do whatever it takes to help the Greek people recover from this tragedy.

Must-Read: Mark Thoma: The Problem with Completely Free Markets

Must-Read: So when I go back onto the Econ 1 teaching line in the spring of 2016, how do I organize (a) the excellences of markets, and (b) the failures of markets? Reich and Tyson have a nice four-part typology: 1. government creates markets, 2. government corrects markets, 3. government distorts markets, 4. government supplements markets. Is that the way to go?

Mark Thoma: The Problem with Completely Free Markets: “Republicans… believe that markets free of government rules and regulations…

…almost always outperform markets where the government is involved. So it’s a good time to review why this faith in free markets is sometimes misplaced…. But we shouldn’t confuse free markets with competitive markets. When there are significant departures from pure competition, what economists call market failures, markets are ‘free’ to perform very badly, and sometimes a market will collapse entirely…. The conditions for textbook competitive markets are fairly strict… numerous participants… perfect information… weights and measures [that] are accurate… free of externalities… [free of] principal-agent problems… free of moral hazard and adverse selection problems…. If a private firm asked you to pay for national defense, why would you say yes? If everyone else pays, you will still be protected, so why pay yourself?…

Must-Read: Miles Kimball: Bruce Greenwald: The Death of Manufacturing

Must-Read: With a more equal distribution of income, there would be a lot more demand for manufactured goods–both consumer and residential investment goods.

And here, as elsewhere, I think that there is confusion between what we used to think of as the short-term aggregate demand problem and the long-term technological change-driven structural adaptation problem:

Miles Kimball: Bruce Greenwald: The Death of Manufacturing: “This is a fascinating discussion by Bruce Greenwald…

…of the difficulties of shifting people from working in sectors like agriculture and manufacturing where employment is declining because productivity is going up faster than demand, the efforts of some countries to export this problem to other countries, and  the effect of these forces on interest rates, and therefore, implicitly, their interaction with the zero lower bound…. It still doesn’t work to have more manufacturing output that people want to buy any more than it makes sense to have more food grown than people can possibly eat. So at the end of the day… either people will start consuming a lot more because of the low interest rates, or more likely there would end up being extra investment in something else. A good possibility is education…. Standard human capital theory suggests that a low enough long-run real interest rate can have a big effect on the amount of education chosen.

Must-Read: Mark Thoma: Austerity: The Public-Sector Jobs Gap

Must-Read: At a time when nominal interest rates are at their zero lower bound, and when as a result there is neither a real resource cost nor a future burden in terms of higher tax wedges to put more people to work doing things for the government, the fact that the U.S. has cut 1.8 million government jobs relative to trend since the start of 2008 is, from any technocratic point of view, a total and complete macroeconomic disaster.

Remember: whatever good things you may say about Democratic President Barack Obama, he helped it along.

Mark Thoma: Austerity: The Public-Sector Jobs Gap)

Economist s View Austerity The Public Sector Jobs Gap

What to Read to Gain Perspective on Economics?

A question of special interest to me right now because the departmental powers-that-be have decided to ask me to go back onto the 700-person Econ 1 Wheeler teaching line next spring…

Chris Y.: A colleague (middle grade civil servant) has sent this request to Mrs Y:

I was wondering if we could do a mentor session on the underpinning economic philosophies (lenses)–I have always wondered what the main underlying philosophies are and the risks associated with viewing economics through particular lenses like Neo-classical or Neo-Keynesian. I know you are quite good at the economics stuff, what do you think?


And so, like Own Glydwr, LizardBreath summons me from the vasty deep!:

If you had a moment to waste at Unfogged…. I figure that if anyone had useful suggestions, it’d be you. And given that you’re demonstrably reading the comments, I also figured that it wasn’t too much of an imposition to ask.

First, I am not reading all the comments.

In fact, I do not understand how anyone can read all the Unfogged comments and have a life–unless, of course, they are a post-human anthology intelligence.

Robert Heilbroner’s The Worldly Philosophers is, I think, still the best place to start. The next two things I have people read are Partha Dasgupta, Economics: A Very Short Introduction; Robert Allen, Global Economic History: A Very Short Introduction; and Milton and Rose Director Friedman, Free to Choose. Then I make people read Jonathan Schlefer, The Assumptions Economists Make; and Tom Slee, _Nobody Makes You Shop at Wal-Mart.

There will be an exam.


https://readfold.com/read/delong/what-to-read-to-gain-perspective-on-economics-u9jYa6DX

Things to Read on the Afternoon of July 2, 2015

Must- and Should-Reads:

Might Like to Be Aware of:

Today’s Economic History: Keynes on Functional Gilded-Age Inequality

Eric Lonergan: On Twitter: Keynes on inequality: “@delong @t0nyyates @Noahpinion http://t.co/94J9qC4IrY

From John Maynard Keynes The Economic Consequences of the Peace: the combination of high inequality and Victorian Prudence on the part of the upper class is, Keynes believes, highly functional for economic growth:

III. The Psychology of Society: [Before World War I] Europe was so organized socially and economically as to secure the maximum accumulation of capital. While there was some continuous improvement in the daily conditions of life of the mass of the population, Society was so framed us to throw a great part of the increased income into the control of the class least likely to consume it.

The new rich of the 19th century were not brought up to large expenditures, and preferred the power which investments gave them to the pleasures of immediate consumption. In fact, it was precisely the inequality of the distribution of wealth which made possible those vast accumulations of fixed wealth and capital improvements which distinguished that age from all others. Herein lay, in fact, the main justification of the capitalist system. If the rich had spent their new wealth on their roownad enjoyments, the world would long ago have found such a regime intolerable. But like bees they saved and accumulated, not less to the advantage of the whole community because they themselves held narrower ends in prospect.

The immense accumulations of fixed capital which, to the great benefit of mankind, were built up during the half-century before the war, could never have come about in a society where wealth was divided equitably. The railways of the world, which that age built as a monument to posterity, were, not less than the peer maids of Egypt, the work of labor which was not free to consume in immediate enjoyment the full equivalent of its efforts.

Thus this remarkable system depended for its growth on a double bluff or deception.

On the one hand, the laboring classes accepted from ignorance or powerlessness, or were compelled, persuaded, or cajoled by custom, convention, authority, and the well-established order of society into accepting, a situation in which they could call their own very little of the cake that they and nature and the capitalists were cooperating to produce.

and on the other hand the capitalist classes were allowed to call the best part of the cake theirs and were theoretically free to consume it, on the tacit underlying condition that they consumed very little of it in practice. The duty of “saving” became 9/10 of virtue, and the growth of the cake the object of true religion. There grew around the nonconsumption of the cake all those instincts of puritanism which in other ages has withdrawn itself from the world has neglected the arts of production as well as those of enjoyment.

and so the cake increased; but to what end was not clearly contemplated. Individuals be exhorted not so much to abstain as to defer, to cultivate the pleasures of security and anticipation. Saving was for old age or for your children; but this was only in theory–the virtue of the cake was that it was never to be consumed, neither by you, nor by your children after you.

In writing thus I do not necessarily disparage the practices of that generation.

In the unconscious recesses of it’s being, society knew what it was about. The cake was really very small in proportion to of consumption, and no one, if it were shared all around, would be much the better off by the cutting of it. Society was working not for the small pleasures of today but for the future security and improvement of the race–in fact for “progress”. If only the cake were not cut, but was allowed to grow in the geometrical proportion predicted by Malthus of population, but not the less true of compound interest, perhaps a day might come when there would at last be enough to go round, and when posterity could enter into the enjoyment of our labors. In that day overwork, overcrowding, and underfeeding would come to an end, and men, secure of the comforts and necessities of the body, and proceed to the nobler exercises of their faculties. One geometrical ratio might cancel another, and the nineteenth century was able to forget the fertility of the species in a contemplation of the dizzy virtues of compound interest.

There were two pitfalls in this prospect: list, population still outstripping accumulation, our self-denials promote not happiness but numbers; and less the cake be after all consumed, prematurely, in war, the consumer of all such hopes…


Eric Lonergan on Twitter delong t0nyyates Noahpinion Keynes on inequality http t co 94J9qC4IrY Eric Lonergan on Twitter delong t0nyyates Noahpinion Keynes on inequality http t co 94J9qC4IrY