Must-Watch: Rob Johnson et al.: Connecting American Foreign Policy to Economic Policy

Must-Watch: Robert Johnson, Brad DeLong, Linda Bilmes, and Steve Clemons: Connecting American Foreign Policy to Economic Policy: “How might a reimagined American foreign policy both bolster the domestic economy…

…and help build a 21st-century global economy that works for everyone?… The flaws and deficiencies of the free enterprise system, including economic inequality, market failure, and the chronic instability of the business cycle… remain… [and] have the potential to cause catastrophic disruptions of both the global economy and modern society…. This roundtable looked at how America could evolve its economic and foreign policy to better work together and make a more positive impact on the world… [as well as] at how foreign policy could more positively impact the domestic American economy…

Robert Johnson, Brad DeLong, Linda Bilmes, and Steve Clemons: Connecting American Foreign Policy to Economic Policy (Roundtable):

Today’s economic history: Oliver Wendell Holmes in Lochner

Oliver Wendell Holmes: Dissent: Lochner v. People of State of New York: “I regret sincerely that I am unable to agree with the judgment…. This case is decided upon an economic theory…

…which a large part of the country does not entertain. If it were a question whether I agreed with that theory, I should desire to study it further…. But I do not conceive that to be my duty…. It is settled by various decisions of this court that state constitutions and state laws may regulate life in many ways which we as legislators might think as injudicious, or if you like as tyrannical, as this, and which, equally with this, interfere with the liberty to contract. Sunday laws and usury laws are ancient examples. A more modern one is the prohibition of lotteries. The liberty of the citizen to do as he likes so long as he does not interfere with the liberty of others to do the same, which has been a shibboleth for some well-known writers, is interfered with by school laws, by the Post Office, by every state or municipal institution which takes his money for purposes thought desirable, whether he likes it or not.

The 14th Amendment does not enact Mr. Herbert Spencer’s Social Statics. The other day we sustained the Massachusetts vaccination law, and state statutes and decisions cutting down the liberty to contract by way of combination are familiar to this court. Two years ago we upheld the prohibition of sales of stock on margins, or for future delivery, in the Constitution of California. Some of these laws embody convictions or prejudices which judges are likely to share. Some may not. But a Constitution is not intended to embody a particular economic theory, whether of paternalism and the organic relation of the citizen to the state or of laissez faire. It is made for people of fundamentally differing views, and the accident of our finding certain opinions natural and familiar, or novel, and even shocking, ought not to conclude our judgment upon the question whether statutes embodying them conflict with the Constitution of the United States….

I think that the word ‘liberty,’ in the 14th Amendment, is perverted… unless it can be said that a rational and fair man necessarily would admit that the statute… would infringe fundamental principles… of our people and our law…. No such sweeping condemnation can be passed upon the statute before us. A reasonable man might think it a proper measure on the score of health. Men whom I certainly could not pronounce unreasonable would uphold it as a first installment of a general regulation of the hours of work. Whether in the latter aspect it would be open to the charge of inequality I think it unnecessary to discuss.

Must-Read: Steve Roth: The Pernicious Prison of the Price Theory Paradigm

Must-Read: Steve Roth (2014): The Pernicious Prison of the Price Theory Paradigm: “Steve Randy Waldman has utterly pre-empted the need for this post…

…cut to the core of the thing, in the opening line of his latest (collect the whole series!):

When economics tried to put itself on a scientific basis by recasting utility in strictly ordinal terms, it threatened to perfect itself to uselessness.

But I’ll try to help a little. What that means: In the mid 20th century, economists decided:

It’s impossible to measure absolute utility. We can’t say what the value to you is of a heart bypass for your mother, or the value of a college education for your kid, or the value of (you or someone else) buying a third or fourth Lamborghini…. Absolute utility — because we can’t measure it — will effectively not exist…. We not only aren’t able to think about absolute utility — actual human value — we are forbidden to do so. Barred.

And with this spectacular piece of rhetorical legerdemain, the discipline disavowed itself of any responsibility for the implications and effects of that rhetorical legerdemain. (It’s hard not to be impressed.)… The (inexorable) implications? Concentration and distribution of wealth and income not only don’t matter… they can’t matter. Steve explains it all far better, with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one explaining how each one is to be used as evidence against us. But I hope this little summation helps.

Inequality, technocracy, utility, and the Federal Reserve

Storify: Inequality, Technocracy, Utility, and the Federal Reserve: A Short Twitter Dialogue on Various Matters of Moral Philosophy, or, IT’S OK FOR THE FED CHAIR TO TALK ABOUT INEQUALITY!!!!

Must-Reads: December 10, 2015

  • Tim Duy: And That’s a Wrap: “We are now well beyond the issue of the first rate hike…” When the next adverse macro economic shock comes, the Fed needs to be in a position to cut the federal funds rate by up to 500 basis points.
  • Frances Coppola: Eurodespair: “The German establishment seems hellbent on steering the Eurozone ship on to the rocks…”
  • FT Alphaville: Alphachatterbox: “Our podcast chat… (updated with transcript)…” :: The best extended interview-format pieces I have seen

Must-Read: Tim Duy: And That’s a Wrap

Must-Read: The principal question the Federal Reserve should be discussing right now is: When the next adverse macro economic shock comes, the Fed needs to be in a position to cut the federal funds rate by up to 500 basis points. What should we be doing now to create an economy as fast as possible that is strong enough to allow for such a federal funds rate? Yet I am seeing no chatter around this question at all. Perhaps the silence is simply a consensus of despair?

Tim Duy: And That’s a Wrap: “The service sector number continues to bounce around a respectable range…

…A bit less so for… manufacturing…. The Fed is betting that a.) this data is noisy and b.) that the service sector is much, much more important to the economy than manufacturing and c.) some of the weakness in manufacturing will be alleviated as the oil/gas drilling and export drag soften over the next year in relative terms. Speaking of exports, the trade report came with a larger-than-expected deficit, a factor that added another hit to GDP nowcasting…. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s GDPnow indicator is currently tracking at 1.5%…. No fear, though… Janet Yellen… highlighted total real private domestic final purchases as the number to watch:

Growth this year has been held down by weak net exports…. By contrast, total real private domestic final purchases (PDFP)… has increased at an annual rate of 3 percent this year….

That sent everyone to FRED (the code is LB0000031Q020SBEA)…. When they search through the data for the happy numbers, you know they are looking to hike. Indeed, the clear takeaway from Yellen’s speech was that a rate hike was coming….

We are now well beyond the issue of the first rate hike. The new questions are how gradual will ‘gradual’ be and when will the Fed begin widening down the balance sheet…. Federal Reserve Governor Lyle Brainard argued to hold the balance sheet at current levels until interest rates are sufficient to provide a cushion for the next recession…. Brainard knows she has lost the battle to forestall the first rate hike further and has now chosen to stake out a position on one of the next big issues…. The pace of subsequent tightening, the normalization–or not–of the balance sheet, and the countdown to the next easing are all issues now on the table.

There’s more to capital taxation than capital gains

One of many ongoing debates about U.S. tax policy is the relative treatment of labor income versus capital income. Currently, income from capital gains—profits from the sale of an investment or property—is taxed at a lower rate than “ordinary income,” also known as wages and salary.

This preferential treatment for capital gains is often justified on efficiency grounds: Taxing capital at the same rate as labor would hurt growth. The usual case against a lower tax rate for capital gains, however, is the inequity of the situation, with a particular emphasis on the “carried interest” loophole that allows certain fund managers to pay the lower capital gains tax on their regular income. This problem has a considerable political weight to it, so much so that the proponents of different flat-tax systems pitch equal treatment of capital and labor income as a plus. (For a fuller breakdown of the benefits of and potential problems with equalizing capital gains and ordinary income tax rates, check out this Wall Street Journal piece featuring Bentley University professor Scott Sumner and Tax Policy Center Director Len Burman.)

Yet note that this whole debate is just about the capital gains tax rate. The capital gains tax is realization based, meaning that you only pay tax on the income once you “realize” the asset, which in most cases when you sell it. So if you buy a share of a company at $10, wait a while, and sell it later when it’s worth $15, you pay the capital gains tax on that $5 in gains. But imagine if you never actually sell the stock. You purchase it at $10 and just hold onto it for the rest of your life. Assuming the stock generally trends up over time, your wealth is increasing over time. In other words, you’re earning income but you don’t get taxed on it. These unrealized gains are income in the economic sense, yet you never pay a capital tax under this situation. (Those readers who consider such a situation to be fanciful should look into the situations of Mark Zuckerberg and Warren Buffett.)

If policymakers want to consider taxing this unrealized capital income, a realization-based tax system isn’t going to get at those gains. So what are other options?

The first is to move to a mark-to-market system. Under such a system, the gains on an asset would be taxed as they happen over a set time period, say a year. So instead of waiting for an investor to sell a share of a company, taxation would happen on the gains in that year regardless if the gains are realized or not. So if the price of a share went up $1 over the course of the year, the investor would be taxed on that dollar regardless of whether they sold the share or not.

But this proposal has its own problems as well. It might be difficult to sell the public on a tax that would hit their retirement fund every year, for example. At the same time, a mark-to-market tax system would require the tax system to pay investors back when an asset goes down in value if the decline is larger than the investor’s other income. Imagine the reaction if the general public had found out that wealthy investors were getting a huge check from the government in 2008 when the stock market tanked.

Another option to deal with unrealized gains would be to institute a wealth tax. Unrealized gains don’t show up as taxable income, but they do show up in calculations of net worth. So an annual wealth tax would get at the gains without needing them to be realized. The wealth tax also has problems, however, including the fact that it may be unconstitutional in the United States.

Perhaps it’s too soon to completely blow up the current capital gains tax system. But if we’re thinking about how capital and labor income are treated differently, it’s worth remembering the role of unrealized gains and contemplating how they fit into our current tax system.

 

 Photo by Vitaly Korovin, veer.com 

Must-Read: Frances Coppola: Eurodespair

Must-Read: Frances Coppola: Eurodespair: “I warned about ‘siren voices’ calling for tighter monetary policy…

…while the Eurozone economy is stuck in a toxic equilibrium of low growth, zero inflation and intractably high unemployment…

…the so-called “German Council of Economic Experts (GCEE)”…. There appears to be no justification for monetary tightening [even] in Germany. So why are a group of German “economic experts” calling not only for the ending of QE, but for its reversal? The clue is….

Low interest rates pose risks for financial stability and erode the business models of banks and insurers over the medium term. Relying only on macroprudential regulation cannot solve these problems.

Yes, as usual it is all about banks…. It is true that persistently low interest rates do reduce banks’ net interest margins. So do the flat yield curves created by QE. But against that should be set the benefit for businesses who can obtain credit both from banks and from markets at much lower interest rates…. The German establishment seems hellbent on steering the Eurozone ship on to the rocks. I despair, I really do.

Must-Must-Must-Watch: FT Alphaville: Alphachatterbox

Must-Must-Must-Watch: Or, preferably I think, read–because they now have transcripts, so you can much more quickly absorb what are, I think, the best extended interview-format pieces I have seen:

FT Alphaville: Alphachatterbox: “Our podcast chat with Reihan Salam…

…Our chat with Esther Duflo — now with transcript…. Our podcast chat with Angus Deaton (updated with transcript)…. A chat with Greg Ip about ‘Foolproof’ (and the transcript)…. A wonky chat with Martin Wolf (plus the transcript)…. Our first Alphachatterbox episode is a talk with Anne-Marie Slaughter, whose new book Unfinished Business has just been published…

JOLTS and the health of the U.S. labor market

As the end of the seven years of zero percent short-term interest rates in the United States seemingly draws to a close, it’s time to take another look at the U.S. labor market and its continuing recovery from the Great Recession.

The widely covered Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a 5 percent unemployment rate, steady employment growth, and nominal wage growth that is above its over-five-year level of 2 percent annual growth (although still well below healthy levels). But the bureau’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, also known as JOLTS, has become an increasingly popular dataset for measuring the health of the U.S. labor market, after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen highlighted it in a speech back in 2013.

So what does the most recent JOLTS release say about the U.S. labor market?

Let’s start with the good news: The job openings rate has been growing quite strongly during the U.S. labor market recovery. The openings rate (the number of job openings divided by total employment plus the number of openings) can be interpreted as a measure of labor demand—an employer posting a job opening is signaling they want to hire someone in the relative future. A few months ago, this rate hit its highest level since the first JOLTS release in late 2000 (3.8 percent), and it is now above its pre-Great Recession level (3.6 percent).

Unfortunately, the openings rate seems to be the outlier among the JOLTS data. While openings have been on a tear, the rate at which businesses are hiring hasn’t increased nearly as quickly. The current hiring rate (3.6 percent) is decidedly below its pre-recession peak of 3.9 percent to 4.0 percent, and has essentially stayed flat since September 2014.

This divergence can be interpreted in a number of different ways. Among them is the hypothesis that workers don’t have enough skills to meet the demands of employers. But the lack of strong wage growth—a sign of employers competing for limited talent—is a point against that story. Another possible explanation is that a shift in bargaining power toward employers has made them more willing to create openings, all other things being held constant.

But the hiring rate isn’t the only JOLTS statistic that has stalled over the last year. The quits rate has been at 1.9 percent since April of this year, and it too has essentially moved sideways since September 2014. The change in workers’ willingness to voluntarily leave their jobs is a good sign of the state of the U.S. labor market: If workers are quitting at a higher rate, they probably got a new job elsewhere or think the labor market is strong enough that they’ll get a job soon enough. Quitting is a sign of increased bargaining power for workers and often accompanies stronger wage growth. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised at the lack of strong wage growth when the quit rate is still below its pre-recession level.

So, in the end, what information can we gleam from the JOLTS data? In short, the U.S. labor market has made real gains from the depths of the Great Recession, but there is a ways to go. Given the stall-out in the hire rate and the quits rate (as well as in the prime-age employment-to-population ratio), the U.S. labor market doesn’t seem to be gaining more steam as 2015 closes out.

The tepid nature of the recovery at this point is a good sign that when the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, slow and steady is probably the best way to proceed.

Photo of worker, veer.com