Understanding economic inequality and growth at the middle of the income ladder

Recent shifts in our economy hit middle class families in ways that may directly affect both current and future productivity. Families in the middle of the income spectrum experienced very little income growth over the past several decades despite working more and often irregular hours. Between 1979 and 2007, the incomes of these families grew by just under 40 percent (after adjusting for inflation), but over that same time period their hours of work also increased.

Compared to 1979, middle class married couples in 2007 put in an average of 11 extra hours of work per week.Much of this added employment is due to the increased employment rates of women and mothers. Most dramatic is the increase in the share of mothers who work full-time, full-year (at least 50 weeks per year and at least 35 hours a week), which rose from 27.3 percent of mothers in 1979 to 46 percent of mothers in 2007 before declining somewhat to 44.1 percent, in the wake of the 2007-2009 recession.

Graphical-middle

The dramatic increase in women’s working hours certainly boosted household earnings. Middle class households would have substantially lower earnings today if women’s employment patterns had remained unchanged. And U.S. gross domestic product—the largest measure of economic growth—would have been roughly 11 percent lower in 2012 if women had not increased their working hours as they did. In today’s dollars, this translates to over $1.7 trillion less in output—roughly equivalent to total U.S. spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid combined in 2012.

But as more women enter the workforce and most men continue to work outside the home, parents are increasingly strapped for time. Given the importance of early childhood for a child and our nation’s future human capital, understanding how trends in our economy affect the next generation of workers is key to future economic growth. Economists have spilled a great deal of ink seeking to understand female employment patterns and what greater maternal employment means for families and, particularly, children’s wellbeing and development.  Over the past decades, economists have begun focusing on how a child’s experiences between birth and starting kindergarten affect their future employment and earnings.

The three essays in this section of our conference report—by Stanford University sociologist Sean Reardon, Stanford’s Clayman Institute sociologist Marianne Cooper, and the Vice President and Director of the Children & Families Program at Next Generation, Ann O’Leary—explore how middle-income families are trying to balance work/life while providing their kids with the best opportunities available and how government policy can help create institutions that allow all workers to both contribute in the workplace and at home. —Heather Boushey is executive director and chief economist of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth

Download the full 2014 conference booklet, with full citations included for all of the essays, including those addressing the top of the income ladder on this page

Income inequality affects our children’s educational Opportunities

by Sean F. Reardon

One of the clearest manifestations of growing economic inequality in our nation today is the widening educational achievement gap between the children of the wealthiest and the children of everyone else. At first glance, this sounds like an obvious outcome. After all, wealthier families are able to afford expensive private schools, or homes in wealthy public school districts with more educational resources.

But a closer look at this education achievement gap over the past 50 years or so shows that the gap only began to widen in the 1970s, right about the time that wealth and income inequality in our nation also began to grow. The past 30 years have seen a sustained rise in inequality in wages, incomes, and wealth, leading to more and more income and wealth accruing to those at the top of the economic lad­der, pulling the rich further away from those on the other rungs.

At the same time, the growing educational gap became ever more apparent. In the 1980s, the gap between the reading and math skills of the wealthiest 10 percent of kids and poorest 10 percent was about 90 points on an 800-point SAT-type scale. Three decades later, the gap has grown to 125 points. This widening gap is largely due to differences in how well prepared children are for school before they enter kindergarten or even pre-kindergarten. In this era of economic inequality, wealthier parents have far more resources, both in terms of time and money, to better prepare their children to succeed in school and later in life.

This widening educational achievement gap may threaten our future economic growth. With only a select few individuals receiving the best education and enrichment, we are not effectively developing the economic potential of our future workforce. To grow our economy we must provide educational and enrichment opportunities for children across the income spectrum, rather than only a select few at the top.

Wealth and income largely define the educational gap today, more so than race and ethnicity. In the 1950s and 1960s, the opposite was true. Back then, racial discrimina­tion in all aspects of life led to deep racial inequality. Economic inequality, in contrast, was lower than at any time in U.S. history, according to extensive research done by economists Thomas Piketty at the Paris School of Economics and Emmanuel Saez at the University of California-Berkeley. But anti-discrimination and civil rights legisla­tion and school desegregation led to improved economic, social, and educational conditions for African Americans and other minorities beginning in the late 1960s. As a result, the gap today between white and black children is about 70 points on an 800- point SAT-type scale, 40 percent smaller than it was in the 1970s, and about half the size of the gap between rich and poor children, but still unacceptable.

The growth of the socioeconomic achievement gap appears to be largely because more affluent parents are increasingly investing more time and money in their kids’ educational enrichment—and at earlier periods in their children’s lives—than hard-pressed low-income and middle class families. Indeed, surveys show that the amount of time and money parents invest in their children has grown sharply over the past four decades among both affluent and non-affluent parents. But the increase in these investments has been two to three times greater among high-income fami­lies. Economists Richard Murnane of Harvard University and Greg Duncan at the University of California-Irvine find that between 1972 and 2006 the amount high-income families spent on their children’s enrichment activities grew by 150 percent, while the amount spent by low-income families grew by 57 percent.  In part, parents are spending more on their kids because they understand that educational success is increasingly important in today’s uncertain economic times, a point that sociologist Marianne Cooper at the Clayman Institute makes in her recent book “Cut Adrift.”  But low- and middle-income families can’t match the resources—both the money and flexible time—of the rich.

As a result, rich and poor children score very differently on school readiness tests before they enter kindergarten. Once they are in school, however, the gap grows very little—by less than 10 percent between kindergarten and high school. Thus, it appears that the academic gap is widening because rich students are increasingly entering kindergarten much better prepared to succeed in school than low- and middle-class students. To be sure, there are important differences in the quality of schools serving low- and high-income students, but these differences do not appear to be as salient as the differences in children’s experiences prior to kindergarten.

The socioeconomic education gap is likely to affect us for decades to come. Think of it as a leading indicator of disparities in civic engagement, college enrollment, and adult success. Indeed, family income and wealth have become increasingly correlated with a variety of positive adolescent activities, such as sports participa­tion, school leadership, extracurricular activities, and volunteer work, according to research conducted by Harvard University political scientist Robert D. Putnam and his colleagues.

Not only are the children of the rich doing better in elementary and high school than the children of the poor, they also are cornering the market on the seats in the best colleges. In a study that I conducted with several of my graduate students, we found that 15 percent of high-income students from the 2004 graduating class of high school enrolled in a highly selective college or university compared to only 5 percent of middle-income graduates and 2 percent of low-income graduates. Because these colleges provide educational opportunities and access to social networks that often lead to high-paying jobs, children from low-income families risk are being locked out of the upper end of the economic spectrum. For low-income children, the American Dream is further out of reach.

This is bad news for our future economy and society because we need well-edu­cated workers in order to sustainably boost economic productivity and grow the economy. So how can we prepare every child, not just those most affluent ones, to be productive members of society? First of all, we must acknowledge that educa­tional problems cannot be resolved by school alone. The achievement gap begins at an early age. To close it, we must invest in children’s early childhood educational opportunities. This means investing not only in preschool but also in parents. Specifically, we need to:

  • Invest in high-quality early childhood education programs (pre-schools, day care) and make them affordable for all families.
  • Invest in programs that help parents become their children’s first and best teacher.
  • Provide policy solutions to help all parents have the time to be teachers through paid leave, paid sick days, workplace flexibility, and income support programs that ensure that families can focus on their children even in hard economic times.

In short, we can narrow the socioeconomic education gap through public policies that help parents of all incomes provide enriching educational opportunities for their children in the way that only affluent parents can do today. —Sean F. Reardon is a sociologist at Stanford University

One nation under worry

by Marianne Cooper

As study after study shows, the rich are doing better than the rest of us. But surprisingly, they don’t always presume that their wealth will protect them or guarantee their children’s futures. In talking with families across the class spectrum about how they coping in an uncertain age for my new book, “Cut Adrift: Families in Insecure Times,” I learned that even the affluent families don’t think they have enough and strive to attain more. In contrast, the working- and middle-class families I spoke with realize they can’t do much to improve their situa­tions so they lower their expectations and try to get by on less.

This is the new face of economic inequality in the United States today. Most every­one is dealing with economic insecurity, yet the ways in which families on different rungs of the income ladder are doing so may be fueling greater economic inequality.

Take Paul Mah, a technology executive with assets of more than $1 million. “We are probably in the top 1 percent of all American households,” says Mah, “so I can’t complain, but I still don’t feel rich.” Only accumulating millions more, he says, would enable him to stop feeling anxious about his financial future and the prospects of his children.

In contrast, Laura Delgado, a struggling single mother of three who works as a cashier, has zero savings, but in many ways is less concerned. “Having nothing isn’t always a bad thing,” she says, noting that things could always be worse. To cope with her financial trouble, Delgado scales back her definition of security to just the basics (food, shelter, clothing) and filters out bad news by always trying to look on the bright side of things. Her approach enables her to control the anxiety she feels about her difficult economic situation.

These are just two of the emotional stories behind the statistics documenting that we live in precarious times. As Americans scramble to hold on to jobs, deal with pay cuts, afford rising college tuition, fund retirements, manage debt, weather the costs of medical emergencies, and give their children an edge in an increasingly competi­tive world, there are deep psychological reverberations—for us all.

Of course these reverberations look and feel differently for different groups of Americans. As economic insecurity grows—a reflection of the many changes and challenges in our economy today—so too has the divide in our country between the haves and the have-nots. This means families face different obstacles and can overcome them, or not, depending on the resources at their disposal.

Like Laura Delgado, many middle- and working-class families I talked with are so beaten down that they are letting go of their dreams for a better life. Instead, they try to make the insecurity they face more tolerable. When Laura must choose whether to pay the power bill or put food on the table for example, she makes light of the lack of heat in her home by telling her kids it’s just “camping.”

Affluent families respond differently. Rather than trying to adjust to greater inse­curity, they seek to protect their families by continuing to climb the wealth-and-income ladder. Security for some of the wealthiest families I talked with meant accumulating a net worth of more than $10 million. Such eye-popping definitions of security leave many affluent families more worried at times than their less fortunate compatriots further down the ladder.

In our go-it-alone age, we all adopt ways of coping—ways of thinking and feel­ing—that help us navigate through choppy and dangerous waters. These different approaches to managing insecurity reveal that in hard times the divisions among us are not just economic, they are also emotional.

Emotional disparities like these have real consequences. As the rich push for more and everyone else tries to accommodate to less, we actually make inequality worse. Because we treat economic insecurity as a personal problem rather than a social problem that we can solve collectively, we are unable to muster the will to stop it. —Marianne Cooper a sociologist at The Clayman Institute, Stanford University

Our future depends on early childhood investments

by Ann O’Leary

It is startling to think that even before a child sits down on her first day of kindergarten and reaches for her crayons, we can already reasonably predict what she will earn as an adult. Research shows that early language develop­ment, understanding of math concepts, and social emotional stability at age five are the greatest predictors of academic success in school. In fact, skills learned before age five can forecast future adult earnings, educational attainment, and employment.

These findings have real implications for our economy. Human capital—the level of education, skills, and talents of our workforce—is a main driver of economic growth, so in order to ensure we have a healthy workforce and thriving economy in the decades to come, we must begin by developing human capital during early childhood.

Yet rising economic inequality and unstable economic growth define our society today. Children have different enrichment experiences during this critical time period based on where their families sit on the income ladder. About half of children In the United States receive no early childhood education. These different experiences translate into a growing educational achievement gap between poor and rich children.

One study—often referred to as the famous “30 million word gap” study by University of Kansas child psychology professors Betty Hart and Todd R. Risley—finds that children living in poverty hear 30 million fewer words by age four than higher-income children.3 On average, a child from a low-income family knows 500 words by the age of 3, compared with 700 words for a child from a working-class family and 1,100 for a child from a professional family. Research by Stanford University infant psychology professor Anne Fernald and her colleagues found that by even age two, there is a six-month gap in language proficiency between lower-income and higher-income children.

In short, the educational achievement gap between poor and rich children begins well before kindergarten.

How can we better prepare our nation’s youngest generation for success? According to University of Chicago economist James J. Heckman, educational and enrichment investments during early childhood yield the highest return in human capital compared to other investments over time. Why? Because as the brain forms, children learn cognitive skills such as language and early math concepts as well as “soft” skills such as curiosity, self-control, and grit. Both skillsets are critical for later academic and workplace success. By the time a child enters Kindergarten, the gap in school readiness is large and well established, growing by less than 10 percent between Kindergarten and high school.

School readiness is enhanced by what happens in preschool, but the two factors that most explain the achievement gaps are parenting styles and home-learning environ­ments. Yet many parents are unaware of the importance of early brain development and of the tremendous impact they can have in building their young child’s brain and early vocabulary with simple actions such as talking, reading and singing.

Even if parents are aware of the importance of these activities, they may have difficulty carving out time at home with their children as they juggle jobs and their children’s needs. Today, more children than ever are raised in single-parent families or in homes where both parents work. Parents today are constantly balancing work and family care often without access to family-friendly workplace policies to balance the two.

To be sure, if parents are unable to provide enriching home experiences then children can gain valuable developmental and learning support in quality child care and preschool settings. Yet many simply cannot afford childcare. In 2011, the average cost for a 4-year-old in professional childcare ranged from about $4,000 to $15,000 a year. Such costs put a major strain on family budgets, especially for low-income families, which spent nearly a third of their income on childcare (30 percent) in 2011, compared to middle- and higher-income families, which spent less than one-tenth (8 percent) of their income.

What’s more, low-income families who do strain to pay for child care often find that the care they can afford is, at best, a safe place for their child to stay while they are at work rather than an enriching environment for their young child to learn critical skills. Sadly, these families often discover that the affordable childcare provider offers poor or mediocre support to help their child in the critical stages of early childhood development.

In order to have a productive workforce and thriving economy tomorrow, we need to invest in our children today. There are viable policy solutions that could expand early childhood education and enrichment opportunities to all, rather than a select few at the top. First, voluntary home visits by child development profession­als could increase awareness among working-class parents of how they can foster their children’s development at home, such as talking, reading, and singing to their children before bedtime.

Second, it is important to expand access to high-quality, affordable early child­hood education. These programs better prepare children for school, putting children more than a year ahead in mathematics and other subjects. Low-income families would greatly benefit from expanded access to quality childcare, Early Head Start, and high-quality preschool programs.

Lastly, parents can only be better first teachers of their children if they have the time to be with their children. Policies such as workplace flexibility, paid family and medical leave, and paid sick days could help all working parents better manage work and family obligations and spend more time with their children. Today, pro­fessional workers are the most likely to have access to these policies, often consid­ered additional employee “perks” by employers.

The importance of investing in early childhood matters for our overall economic competitiveness. The United States should be making smart economic invest­ments in early childhood to ensure that all children have an equitable start before their first day of school. For the American Dream to shine well into the 21st century, it is no exaggeration to say that every American, young and old, needs our youngest ones to be the best and the brightest as adults no matter their family background and income level. —Ann O’Leary is vice president and director of the Children and Families Program at NextGeneration

Morning Must-Read: Jeff Weintraub: China’s Man in Hong Kong Explains the Problem with Democracy–It’s a Threat to Capitalism

Jeff Weintraub: China’s Man in Hong Kong Explains the Problem with Democracy–It’s a Threat to Capitalism: “The argument that democracy is dangerous…

…because it means mob rule by the ignorant unwashed masses–or rule by unscrupulous and even tyrannical demagogues who can manipulate those masses–is a very old one…. [The] more specific version… that political democracy… threatens the basic requirements of a capitalist market economy, was made quite often throughout the 19th and into the early 20th century…. For better or worse, history seems to have demonstrated that such claims about the fundamental incompatibility… were exaggerated…. [The] inherent tensions… [are] a good thing…. Some pro-plutocratic and market-fundamentalist ideologues still share that 19th-century fear of the perils of democracy, and occasionally some billionaire will blurt this out in an unguarded interview. But in most western societies, people who hold these views can’t state them… openly and straightforwardly… [but] euphemistically… with various circumlocutions. In some other parts of the world, however, those anti-democratic arguments can still be made publicly with refreshing honesty.

On Jeff Madrick et al.: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America

DRAFT PRESENTATION SLIDES:

On Jeff Madrick: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America

J. Bradford DeLong
U.C. Berkeley

For Delivery: 2014-10-23
Prepared: 2014-10-22


Jeff Madrick’s Seven Bad Ideas

  1. The “Invisible Hand”
  2. Say’s Law
  3. Friedman’s Folly: Government’s Limited Social Role
  4. Low Inflation Is All That Matters
  5. There Are No Bubbles
  6. Globalization Is Always Good
  7. Economics Is a Science

In Madrick’s Introduction*

  • Praised in the Introduction: John Maynard Keynes, Dani Rodrik
  • Criticized in the Introduction:
    1. Adam Smith–no comment necessary…
    2. Olivier Blanchard–the de facto leader of the Sixth International: on the left of the spectrum of policymakers…
    3. Larry Summers–principal advocate of the Keynesian expansionary-fiscal solution to our troubles…
    4. Milton Friedman–when he was alive, the most powerful advocate of unlimited quantitative easing…
    5. Bob Rubin–on his watch big banks were bailed-in during financial crises, not bailed-out…
    6. Ben Bernanke–most left-wing central banker we had (although I will concede his attachment to 2%/year inflation target, and failure to reach it, are huge minuses)…
    7. Robert Lucas–underbriefed and destructive…

Reading Along

  • Madrick on Christina Romer:
    • “In a piece she wrote for The New York Times criticizing an increase in the minimum wage, Christina Romer, the former Obama adviser and considered by many to be a political liberal, implicitly made this same oversimplified assumption that workers usually get what they deserve. This is an example of Friedman’s broad influence…”
  • Romer:
    1. We have better policies available: expand the EITC is better targeted
    2. For the long-run, universal kindergarten and pre-K have more bang for the buck
    3. And these are expansionary fiscal policy–spending money gives a macroeconomic boost as well
    4. But if the choice is for a higher minimum wage or nothing, I’m for a higher minimum wage…

Food for Thought

  • Of these 8 whom Madrick criticizes…
  • …Somewhere between 5 and 7 are to the left of current North Atlantic policymakers
  • Not excluding Obama

PFoJ vs. JPF, Perhaps?

  • A little misplaced ire, I think…
    NewImage
  • But I don’t want to go there…
  • I would rather go to…

I See Four Yawning Gulfs

  1. Between:

    • the economic policies that those whom I regard as “serious” economists are advocating, and
    • those that are being implemented…
  2. Between:

    • what economics says, and
    • what right-of-center economists are telling their political masters it says…
  3. Between:

    • what economics says, and
    • what economics should say…
  4. Between:

    • my “inside” view of what I think economics says, and
    • Jeff Madrick’s “outside” view of what he thinks economics says…

As I See It:

  • The problem of where economics starts
  • the problem of the decreasing relevance of the Smithian model
    • The stringent requirements for market effectiveness
  • Current policies and current tasks

Where Economics Starts

  • Economics starts from the presumption:
    • that market success is the benchmark, and
    • that market failure is anomalous
  • It ought to start from the presumption:
    • that market construction is difficult
  • It ought to have:
    • a grammar of other forms of organization–
    • command, bureaucracy, charity, cooperative, regulated monopoly, yardsticks, etc.–
    • and where they succeed and where they fail

**Decreasing Relevance of the Smithies Model

  • We have a great deal of economic life where we know the market will not work well, and
  • These sectors will only grow in relative importance
    1. Pensions
    2. Health-care finance
    3. Education
    4. Infrastructure
    5. Research and development
    6. Information goods more generally

The Stringent Requirements for Market Effectiveness

  • Here are seven requirements:
    1. Distribution of wealth corresponding to fairness and utility
    2. Aggregate demand matched to potential supply
    3. Competition
    4. Calculation
    5. Rivalry
    6. Excludability
    7. Information symmetries
  • And, no, a night-watchman, a court, and cutting property rights at the joints will not get us there

Current Policy and Current Tasks

  • Policy is far to the right of even where the really existing economics profession is
    • At least, where the “serious” piece of it, in an intellectual sense, is
    • And it is not to the smart right either
  • Why?
  • How to fix it
    • Books like Jeff’s, of course, but what else?
  • Two tasks:
    • Move the “serious” economics profession
    • Move policymaking to the “serious” economics profession
    • Both seem of equal importance and difficulty

.key | .pdf


Christina Romer: [The Minimum Wage, Employment and Income Distribution][refThe Minimum Wage, Employment and Income Distribution]: “If a higher minimum wage were the only anti-poverty initiative available…

…I would support it. It helps some low-income workers, and the costs in terms of employment and inefficiency are likely small. But we could do so much better if we were willing to spend some money. A more generous earned-income tax credit would provide more support for the working poor and would be pro-business at the same time. And pre-kindergarten education, which the president proposes to make universal, has been shown in rigorous studies to strengthen families and reduce poverty and crime. Why settle for half-measures when such truly first-rate policies are well understood and ready to go?

A deeper understanding of secular stagnation?

Almost a year ago, Larry Summers delivered a speech at an International Monetary Fund conference that caused quite a stir among economists and other observers of the field. In the speech, the former Treasury Secretary and Harvard University economist resuscitated the idea of secular stagnation, or a prolonged period where inflation-adjusted interest rates need to be negative to spur strong economic growth. Other economists have commented on and built off the idea including Paul Krugman, our own Brad DeLong at the University of California-Berkeley, and Atif Mian and Amir Sufi, the authors of “House of Debt” and economics professors at Princeton University and the University of Chicago, respectively.

But mainstream economists have not developed full-fledged models of secular stagnation, at least until this week.

Earlier this week, the National Bureau of Economic Research released a paper by economists Gauti Eggertsson and Neil Mehrotra, both of Brown University, which builds a model of secular stagnation. The model looks at how a variety of factors, including income inequality, can result in a desired interest rate that needs to be negative in order to generate sufficient demand. For example, the higher savings rates of the rich would increase the supply of savings and push down the desired interest rate.

If the economy needs a negative inflation-adjusted interest rate then there’s a problem, because central banks are unable to drop nominal interest rates below zero. Conventional policy tools  wouldn’t naturally move the economy away from this situation of secular stagnation. Without a change, the economy would stay in the current rut. Think of Japan: it experienced a large recession in the early 1990s that turned into a decade-long period of stagnation.

According to Eggertsson and Mehrotra, though, policymakers can move an economy out of this nasty equilibrium. They look at how monetary and fiscal policy can help boost economic growth in a period of secular stagnation. They find that monetary policy can help boost the economy only if the central bank credibly commits to a higher inflation target. This result is interesting given Summers’s claim that monetary policy may not be helpful in just such a situation. In this way, the model supports a critique of Summers’s original formulation of secular stagnation best articulated by the Economist’s Ryan Avent.

Yet backing up Summers on another of his suggested methods to escape secular stagnation—increased public spending—Eggertsson and Mehrotra find that fiscal policy is helpful as well. By increasing the amount of public debt, fiscal policy increases the natural rate of interest spurring investment, which will help the economy gain traction.

Eggertsson and Mehrotra have done a great service by building up a full model of secular stagnation. But questions still arise. Both Tyler Cowen and Ryan Decker, a graduate student at the University of Maryland, have concerns about certain mechanisms in the paper. Resolving these issues will not only strengthen Eggertsson and Mehrotra’s paper, but further our understanding of a potentially critical economic problem.

Things to Read on the Morning of October 22, 2014

Must- and Shall-Reads:

 

  1. Charles Steindel: For Thursday… How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America: “Your comments on how economics should… be constructed are very well-stated (actually making it more of a social science, and less model-juggling. However, it also would change the sort of person going into the field and change the field’s criteria for success. Not easy!). One thing… is the optimizing behavior of economic policy analysts. Fiscal policy seems off the table, so macroeconomists dive into unconventional monetary policy, which, one trusts, all know is extremely dicey. Why not more emphasis on yelling from the rooftops that the usual economic fears of expansionary fiscal policy (debt accumulation, waste)are simply off target, and less time worrying about the fine points of ‘tapering’? Your Brookings work with Larry shows the analytics of fiscal policy at this juncture very well. Criticizing the critics of expansionary fiscal policy as evil 0.01% oligarchs or mindless racist Tories might make one feel good and righteous but doesn’t get anybody anywhere; basic analysis held by what seems everybody but a few denizens of the Booth School shows the economic sense of the policy. The notion of criticizing Christie Romer as in thrall to Milton Friedman is indeed droll in the extreme. I guess to have to see the book to see what his problem is with Olivier.”

  2. Note That Politico Does Not Label Advertisements as Advertisements: Geoff Morrell: No, BP Didn’t Ruin the Gulf: “What impact did the spill actually have on the Gulf Coast environment?… [10 paragraphs]… Geoff Morrell is senior vice president of U.S. communications and external affairs for BP.

  3. Richard Mayhew: Keeping it like the Kaiser: “The payer provider model has been around US healthcare for a very long time, but the Kaiser twist on it is very wierd and as far as I know, no one else does it quite like Kaiser… a fully integrated payer provider with exclusive usage…. Almost all other non-governmental payer-providers are not exclusive walled gardens that systematically seek to minimize interaction with the entire US healthcare delivery ecosystem…. So what does this difference mean?… I think the Kaiser model allows it to capture and internalize significantly higher percentage of preventive and care coordination benefits than most other integrated payer provider models and far more benefits are captured than segregated payer/provider models. It allows for a common focus and a shared focus on quality and risk minimization as aligning incentives to pay docs to not order a needless test actually makes sense in all scenarios. Other integrated payer providers that are not exclusive walled gardens have the incentive to perform high quality and efficient care on their insured members but wasteful care on patients who are insured by someone else. A Sutter doc who orders an MRI on a non-best practice basis for a Sutter member is costing the company money, but ordering that MRI for an Anthem or United Health insured patient is a a revenue gain. Most providers don’t change their patterns of practice on a patient by patient basis, that means aggregate performance on minimizing needless tests, minimizing preventable care incidents is conflicted with revenue maximization…. The revenue risk is the biggest risk that will stop non-exclusive mostly open payer providers from converting to a Kaiser walled-garden approach…. At least a few payer-providers will install significant gatekeepers and low walls for their network to keep most of their members in and other people out, but the walls won’t be high nor hard to hop over. Kaiser is weird in the American context, and I anticipate it will continue to be an unusual but highly successful implementation of a fairly unique non-governmental model.”

  4. Noah Smith: Forecasting Is Risky, Especially About the Future: “I wrote about the people who warned in 2010 that quantitative easing would result in inflation, but who didn’t seem to change their beliefs very much after inflation failed to materialize…. Of all the defenses offered by the 2010 inflationistas for the constancy of their views, the most subtle and interesting is the claim that predicting an event is different than predicting the risk of an event…. It is indeed a subtle distinction. In fact, it is several subtle distinctions rolled into one. First, there is the issue of how to trust a forecaster who only forecasts risks…. Ideally, the way you would deal with this is to get the forecaster to make many repeated predictions…. Second, there is the distinction between making a prediction and updating one’s beliefs based on the outcome…. Third, there is the issue of time. What if, in 2027, there is a burst of inflation for no apparent reason? Will the people who predicted inflation as a result of QE in 2010 say ‘See? We told you that Fed balance sheet expansion had to cause inflation sooner or later!’?… Finally, there is the question of what information set someone used when issuing his or her warning. Did the signatories of the 2010 letter think only about the experience of the U.S. in the 1970s when they warned about inflation? Or had they stopped to consider the experience of Japan, whose repeated rounds of QE have never unleashed inflation of more than 1 percent? The fundamental question is this: Suppose there are people out there who are broken records when it comes to inflation. Rain or shine, come what may, they warn of inflation…. Obviously, these warnings would have zero informational content…. Is there some kind of Turing Test for macroeconomic forecasters?… Our tools for identifying unreliable forecasters are rather primitive–a combination of reputation, bluster, excuses, insults and counter-insults. It’s all a bit silly, and it generates a lot of bad feelings all around. But what else can we do?”

Should Be Aware of:

 

  1. Nancy Cartwright: Evidence for Policy: “To repeat, our assessment of the probability of effectiveness is only as secure as the weakest link in our chain of reasoning to arrive at that probability. We may have to ignore some issues or make heroic assumptions about them. But that should dramatically weaken our degree of confidence in our final assessment. Rigor isn’t contagious from link to link. If you want a relatively secure conclusion coming out, you’d better be careful that each premise is secure going in.”

  2. Daniel Davies: Bonus regulation–a terrible idea whose time has come?: “Finally, it appears that the investment banking industry (in Europe at least) has got the kind of regulation it deserves. Which is to say, capricious, wrongheaded, arrogant and systematically destructive. As someone who worked in this industry until about three months ago, all I can say is that I feel for my ex-colleagues, but that this was not a disaster which fell on the industry like a Black Swan from a blue sky–it was more like the kind of injuries that you get if you climb into the lion enclosure at the zoo, and repeatedly kick a sleeping lion up the bum to see if it will wake up…”

  3. Bruce Bartlett: Obama Is a Republican: “I wrote a piece for the New Republic soon afterward about the Obamacon phenomenon–prominent conservatives and Republicans who were openly supporting Obama. Many saw in him a classic conservative temperament: someone who avoided lofty rhetoric, an ambitious agenda, and a Utopian vision that would conflict with human nature, real-world barriers to radical reform, and the American system of government. Among the Obamacons were Ken Duberstein, Ronald Reagan’s chief of staff; Charles Fried, Reagan’s solicitor general; Ken Adelman, director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency for Reagan; Jeffrey Hart, longtime senior editor of National Review; Colin Powell, Reagan’s national security adviser and secretary of state for George W. Bush; and Scott McClellan, Bush’s press secretary. There were many others as well…. They were not wrong…. Obama has governed as a moderate conservative—essentially as what used to be called a liberal Republican before all such people disappeared from the GOP. He has been conservative to exactly the same degree that Richard Nixon basically governed as a moderate liberal, something no conservative would deny today…”

Morning Must-Read: Charles Steindel: Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy

Charles Steindel: For Thursday… How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America: “Your comments on how economics should…

…be constructed are very well-stated (actually making it more of a social science, and less model-juggling. However, it also would change the sort of person going into the field and change the field’s criteria for success. Not easy!). One thing… is the optimizing behavior of economic policy analysts. Fiscal policy seems off the table, so macroeconomists dive into unconventional monetary policy, which, one trusts, all know is extremely dicey. Why not more emphasis on yelling from the rooftops that the usual economic fears of expansionary fiscal policy (debt accumulation, waste)are simply off target, and less time worrying about the fine points of ‘tapering’? Your Brookings work with Larry shows the analytics of fiscal policy at this juncture very well. Criticizing the critics of expansionary fiscal policy as evil 0.01% oligarchs or mindless racist Tories might make one feel good and righteous but doesn’t get anybody anywhere; basic analysis held by what seems everybody but a few denizens of the Booth School shows the economic sense of the policy. The notion of criticizing Christie Romer as in thrall to Milton Friedman is indeed droll in the extreme. I guess to have to see the book to see what his problem is with Olivier.

Morning Must-Read: Note That Politico Does Not Label Advertisements as Advertisements

Geoff Morrell: No, BP Didn’t Ruin the Gulf: “What impact did the spill actually have on the Gulf Coast environment?… [10 paragraphs]… Geoff Morrell is senior vice president of U.S. communications and external affairs for BP.

Everybody working for–or reading–Politico needs to think hard about whether this is what they should be doing.

For Thursday: Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Jeff Madrick, Ylan Mui: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America

DRAFT NOTES:

Josh Bivens, Brad DeLong, Jeff Madrick, Ylan Mui: How Mainstream Economic Thinking Imperils America:

Thursday, October 23, 2014
1:00 – 2: 30 p.m. ET
Economic Policy Institute
1333 H St., NW
Suite 300
Washington, DC 20005

http://www.epi.org/event/mainstream-economic-thinking-imperils-america/

Advice about what points I should try to hit would be most welcome…


Jeff Madrick’s Seven Bad Ideas:

  1. The “Invisible Hand”
  2. Say’s Law
  3. Friedman’s Folly: Government’s Limited Social Role
  4. Low Inflation Is All That Matters
  5. There Are No Bubbles
  6. Globalization Is Always Good
  7. Economics Is a Science

In Madrick’s Introduction and Reading Along:

  • Praised in the Introduction:
    1. John Maynard Keynes
    2. Dani Rodrik
  • Criticized in the Introduction:
    1. Adam Smith–no comment necessary…
    2. Olivier Blanchard–the de facto leader of the Sixth International: on the left of the spectrum of policymakers…
    3. Larry Summers–principal advocate of the Keynesian expansionary-fiscal solution to our troubles…
    4. Milton Friedman–when he was alive, the most powerful advocate of unlimited quantitative easing…
    5. Bob Rubin–on his watch big banks were bailed-in during financial crises, not bailed-out…
    6. Ben Bernanke–most left-wing central banker we had (although I will concede his attachment to 2%/year inflation target, and failure to reach it, are huge minuses)…
    7. Robert Lucas–underbriefed and destructive…
  • Madrick on Christina Romer:
    1. In a piece she wrote for The New York Times criticizing an increase in the minimum wage, Christina Romer, the former Obama adviser and considered by many to be a political liberal, implicitly made this same oversimplified assumption that workers usually get what they deserve. This is an example of Friedman’s broad influence…
  • Romer:
    1. We have better policies available: expand the EITC is better targeted
    2. For the long-run, universal kindergarten and pre-K have more bang for the buck
    3. And these are expansionary fiscal policy–spending money gives a macroeconomic boost as well
    4. But if the choice is for a higher minimum wage or nothing, I’m for a higher minimum wage…
  • Of these 8, somewhere between 5 and 7 are to the left of current North Atlantic policymakers–not excluding Obama

PFoJ vs. JPF, Perhaps?

  • A little misplaced ire, I think…
    NewImage
  • But I don’t want to go there…

I Want to Go Here: The Problem, as I See It:

  • Economics starts from the presumption that market success is the benchmark
    1. And that market failure is anomalous
    2. It ought to start from the presumption that market construction is difficult
    3. It ought to have a grammar of other forms of organization–command, bureaucracy, charity, cooperative, regulated monopoly, yardsticks, etc.–and where they succeed and where they fail
  • We have a great deal of economic life where we know the market will not work well, and these sectors will only grow in relative importance
    1. Pensions
    2. Health-care finance
    3. Education
    4. Infrastructure
    5. Research and development
    6. Information goods more generally
  • Policy is far to the right–and not to the smart right–of even where the really existing economics profession, at least the “serious” piece of it in an intellectual sense, is
    1. Why?
    2. How to fix it–books like Jeff’s, of course, but how else?
    3. Two tasks: move the “serious” economics profession, and move policymaking to the “serious” economics profesion–both seem of equal importance and difficulty

Christina Romer: [The Minimum Wage, Employment and Income Distribution][refThe Minimum Wage, Employment and Income Distribution]: “If a higher minimum wage were the only anti-poverty initiative available…

…I would support it. It helps some low-income workers, and the costs in terms of employment and inefficiency are likely small. But we could do so much better if we were willing to spend some money. A more generous earned-income tax credit would provide more support for the working poor and would be pro-business at the same time. And pre-kindergarten education, which the president proposes to make universal, has been shown in rigorous studies to strengthen families and reduce poverty and crime. Why settle for half-measures when such truly first-rate policies are well understood and ready to go?

Why should policymakers care about economic inequality?

The International Monetary Fund earlier this month gathered economic policy experts from around the world to discuss, among other important things, the rise in economic inequality in developing and developed nations alike over the past several decades. One panel focused directly on how to encourage more inclusive economic growth— a panel moderated by the executive director and chief economist of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, Heather Boushey.

At the conference, she and I also released a new summary of the academic literature exploring this subject. Our report and the telling discussion among the experts in Boushey’s panel made note of the fact that it was long assumed economic growth led to less economic inequality but also that any economic policy efforts to alleviate inequality would necessarily slow economic growth. These views, however, were formed in an era before there was sufficient data to truly test this view.

As the data collection improved in the 1980s and 1990s, economists began testing this hypothesis. In an early survey of the literature, economist Roland Benabou at Princeton University in 1996 found that the vast majority of studies said high and rising inequality harmed economic growth. These papers used a variety of data sets, methods, and measures of inequality but still consistently found this relationship.

In response to this early literature, various economists explored the nuances of this relationship. University of Melbourne economist Sarah Voitchovsky summarizes much of this middle literature in a 2009 review, finding that there was substantial disagreement about the relationship between inequality and growth. Some studies showing that inequality may improve growth under certain circumstances. The muddle of this middle period in this economic literature has given rise to a newer narrative. Methodological differences appear to have driven the differences in the results, with later analysis finding that higher inequality can be associated with faster economic growth in the short term, but over time higher inequality is related to lower growth.

Recent work by International Monetary Fund economists Andrew Berg, Jonathan Ostry, and Charalombos Tsangaridis as well as by Roy van der Weide of the World Bank and Branko Milanovic of the City University of New York have robustly found a negative relationship between economic inequality for developed countries and within the United States, respectively. This most recent wave of studies will likely not be the final word on the relationship between economic inequality and growth. Furthermore, there is substantial work needed to understand how inequality affects growth. Research supports several plausible channels that could explain the relationship between inequality and growth. Some studies provide evidence that better human capital formation—workforce education and training—is the key way to reducing high economic inequality that in turn slows economic growth.

Other studies find that a highly skewed distribution of income and wealth depresses consumption in the economy, crimping growth and leading to unsustainably excessive borrowing. Recent research on the on the 2007-8 financial crisis also implies that high inequality may restrict access to credit that entrepreneurs need to build small businesses into big businesses. We have evidence for each of these findings, but more work is needed.

While there are many open questions about the relationship between economic inequality and economic growth, we hope the debate can move beyond why we should care to how do we fix it. As the United States drifts into a society with levels of economic polarization not seen outside of the developing world, policies that produce more equitable growth may be needed if we are to remain economically vibrant. Understanding how to craft those policies will be key in the coming years.

Thomas Piketty, depreciation and the elasticity of substitution

When “Capital in the 21st Century” was published in English earlier this year, Thomas Piketty’s book was met with rapt attention and constant conversation. The book was lauded but also faced criticism, particularly from other economists who wanted to fit Piketty’s work into the models they knew well (Equitable Growth’s Marshall Steinbaum replied to many of those criticism here.) Now, a new working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research shows how one of the more effective critiques of the book might not be as powerful as once thought.

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