Must-Watch: Barry Ritholtz: Ha-Joon Chang: Economics Is For Everyone!

Must-Watch: Barry Ritholtz: Ha-Joon Chang: Economics Is For Everyone!: “Really interesting stuff…

…legendary economist Ha-Joon Chang in a mind-blowing RSA Animate…. explains why every single person can and SHOULD get their head around basic economics. He pulls back the curtain on the often mystifying language of derivatives and quantitive easing, and explains how easily economic myths and assumptions become gospel. Arm yourself with some facts, and get involved in discussions about the fundamentals that underpin our day-to-day lives:

Must-Read: Larry Summers: When the best umps blow a call

Must-Read: I think Larry Summers gets this wrong. Under Rivlin, Reischauer, Orszag, and Elmendorf the CBO was a national treasure. Otherwise… Not so much. Hit and miss.

Remember June O’Neill talking about how many people would lose their jobs from health care reform, and never once telling the reporters she briefed that in her models people hadn’t “lost” their jobs, they quit jobs they did not want to have and were made happier thereby?

And now we have an assumed-but-hidden 2%/year real rate of return on government infrastructure investment driving an analysis:

Larry Summers: When the best umps blow a call: “The Congressional Budget Office is an American national treasure…

…Without the impartial objectivity it brings to the budget process, our country would make much worse policy. Baseball without an umpire would be a very different game, and similarly the making of budget policy without CBO would be a very different and inferior activity. However, even the best umps occasionally blow a call, and I am afraid that is what CBO has done in its recent infrastructure report…

Must-Read: Jonathan Chait: Why ‘Fix the Debt’ Just Can’t Quit Paul Ryan

Must-Read: I concur with Jonathan Chait here: “Fix the Debt” has lost its way, and does not look like it will ever be able to find it again. People funding it and working for it should be well advised to go and find something else more productive to do with their money and time…

Jonathan Chait: Why ‘Fix the Debt’ Just Can’t Quit Paul Ryan: “Last week, House Republicans released a plan for a gigantic, regressive tax cut…

…Since gigantic tax cuts increase the budget deficit, you would think an organization devoted to the singular mission of reducing the deficit would oppose it. But no. The anti-deficit lobby Fix the Debt released a statement of qualified praise, which I ridiculed. Fix the Debt responds with a new, brief defense of its position. What its argument actually reveals is its denial about the state of the Republican Party. Here is the relevant portion of Fix the Debt’s response:

We don’t endorse the plan, but we do welcome it because it puts tax reform on the agenda in Washington. It also moves in the right direction by eliminating or limiting many of the tax breaks that complicate the tax code and shrink the tax base. Tax reform should contribute to deficit reduction, and definitely not increase deficits. We hope that the new plan will spur discussion and bipartisan negotiation on reform that will simplify the tax code, make the country more competitive, and help to fix the debt.

The nub of the argument is that the Republican plan, while admittedly imperfect, ‘moves in the right direction.’ But if you define the right direction as reducing the debt, then the plan doesn’t move in the right direction. It moves in the wrong direction. The Republican plan is for massive cuts in tax rates, including the complete elimination of the estate tax. It is true that the proposal gestures vaguely in the direction of closing loopholes and expenditures, but it does not define what these would be. What’s more, the plan’s authors have made clear that the proposal will be a net tax cut.

So how can Fix the Debt claim that a plan to increase the debt can ‘help to fix the debt’? It can only be understood as an extension of the organization’s dysfunctional enabling relationship…. During President Obama’s first term, anti-deficit activists came up with a plan that they hoped would induce Republicans to abandon their fanatical opposition to higher tax revenue. First, they would get Democrats to support cuts to Social Security and Medicare as part of the trade. And second, the higher revenue would come not in the form of tax-rate increases but instead by reducing loopholes and [tax] expenditures…. In reality, Republicans refused to go for this deal. They didn’t just refuse once. They refused time after time. In 2010, the Simpson-Bowles commission came up with a plan that traded revenue-increasing tax reform for cuts to retirement programs, and leading Republicans like Paul Ryan all rejected the deal. Then, in 2011, Obama tried to strike a similar bargain with House Republicans when they held the debt ceiling hostage, but they rejected it again. That standoff led to the creation of a ‘supercommittee’ that was tasked with creating another version of the revenue-increasing tax-reform-for-retirement-cuts deal, which predictably failed again. And then, when the Bush tax cuts were set to expire at the end of 2012, the Obama administration hoped the pressure of an imminent tax increase would force Republicans to make some version of the deal, but once again they refused, instead using their leverage to minimize the tax hit on upper-income households…. The debt-hawk theory on how Republicans could be induced to give up their fanatical opposition to higher revenue failed….

Conceding that this is the Republican position would subvert Fix the Debt’s entire theory of change. So instead the group continues to reside in a fantasy world where the GOP can be coaxed into doing the thing it has proven extensively it won’t do. In this fantasy world, a Republican using the words ‘tax reform’ means a step toward ‘discussion’ and ‘bipartisan negotiation’ and, ultimately, a result that would be the precise opposite of what Republicans actually want to do.

Must-Read: John Holbo: Podcasts I Just Listened to

Must-Read: John Holbo: Podcasts I just listened to: “I just listened to a Federalist podcast interview with Randy Barnett…

…Not my cup of tea, usually, but I have an interest in Barnett’s stuff. The guy really has a bug in his ear about John Roberts. A couple months back he was blaming Roberts for Trump and I was like–fine, fine, you lost your Obamacare case. You are a bit bitter, venting steam. But he’s still banging on about how Roberts is the betrayer-in-chief of the Constitution, hence to blame for Trump. This is polemically unfair, in ways I could spell out, but won’t. (If you really want to ask, that’s what comments are for.)

But I’ve got to wonder whether this sort of thing isn’t really pissing off Roberts. It would piss me off, if I were Roberts. Barnett isn’t just some guy. He’s like the brain and soul of the Federalist Society, these days. A bit of on-again, off-again grousing about Roberts’ ‘bad’ decisions is one thing. But Roberts is shaping up to be this consistent, vile Judas in the conservative imaginary. Roberts is going to be Chief for a while, I expect. Dale Carnegie would suggest that the way to work the refs effectively is not this. If Roberts actually turns into some flaming Living Constitutionalist slave-to-the-democratic-mob in 20 years, maybe you can give Barnett half credit.

Corey Robin: “It might piss Roberts off to hear this kind of talk now from Barnett…

…But it might also make him think twice and wonder whether, in his drive to be the conservative Court’s steward and statesman, he’s not in fact betraying the values and vision he came on the Court to pursue.

John Holbo: “I think the chance that Roberts doesn’t realize that Barnett is really uncharitably caricaturing Roberts’ position is slight…

…I don’t really think Roberts is going to move left, but I fully expect him to stick by his guns, and to realize that his guns are actually firing at the Federalist Society now.

Must-Read: Kieran Healy: The Moral Economy of Technology

Must-Read: When I think of the standard uses of “moral economy”, I think not of “fairness” and “justice” but rather of tradition and hierarchy. I think of the Odyssey, in which the fact that Laertes looks like a badly-treated garden slave rather than like a prince is a violation of the moral-economic order:

Indeed your face and figure have nothing of the slave about them, and proclaim you of noble birth. I should have said that you were one of those who should wash well, eat well, and lie soft at night…

The market can and very often does produce pressure for outcomes that violate “moral economy” understood as tradition and hierarchy, but they may or may not violate “moral economy” understood as reasonable and humane notions of justice and fairness. Indeed, Prometheus the fire-bringer’s and the disruptions he causes have an alternative and stronger claim to “moral economy”:

Kieran Healy: The Moral Economy of Technology: “‘moral economy’ refers to some kind of informal but forceful collective control over the market…

…justice over efficiency, fairness over freedom, and community expectations over individual opportunity…. Technologies are counting and classifying your actions constantly in an effort to make you a better person. Their promoters and investors constantly moralize about their products, too…. This kind of moral economy is not about justice or fairness. Instead it evangelizes social progress through technological disruption. This vision has deep historical roots that are uncomfortably entwined with the origins of the social sciences…. The Saint-Simonian vision became what Hayek called ‘the religion of the engineers’, full of faith in the power of rational expertise. That religion is very much still with us….

Consider two basic experiences of our new world of smart devices and internet-enabled things. The first is the nice one… the lives of people who live in Apple advertisements… a computer or device knows what you want it to do, or has anticipated a need that you have and acted on it in a pleasing way. It is a feeling of magic and delight, or at least a sense of ease and convenience…. The second basic experience is the bad one. I associate it with a parade of malfunctioning, misconceived or badly-designed software and smart devices…. Most recently I’ve experienced it with allegedly smart devices that pretend they can talk with and understand you, but which are really just verbal command lines operating on the narrowest of gauges. If you stray from the expected path at all, the illusion of both interactivity and smartness is destroyed….

Social theorists consistently underestimate the value of technology’s delightful aspects… want to say your Fitbit or Apple Watch is exercising a subtle form of control over you by encouraging you not just to meet your step count for the day but also encouraging you to value the act of meeting your step count for the day, and most perniciously by arranging things so that you experience your valuation of the act of meeting your step count for the day as a satisfying personal choice, rather than an instrument of neoliberal governmentality. Conversely, though, the same theorists also consistently overestimate how often software and hardware actually works properly…. They reverse left and right, so that cheerful hype becomes a harsh critique of the all-consuming power of technology. But… they do not reverse up and down. The technology is still assumed to work, even though it probably doesn’t, most of the time. It matters which technologies are going to work, and which ones are just going to be billion dollar cargo-cults…

Must-Read: Dan Drezner: The Truth of Cosmopolitanism

Must-Read: Dan Drezner: The Truth of Cosmopolitanism: “Douthat’s column is a perfect cocktail consisting of one part insight, one part self-loathing and one part flagrant error…

…The insight… Chris Hayes…. “The problem was so deep and so tied to the entire social order and rising inequality in the American model of enlightened meritocratic rule that even competent leadership from President Obama, or a period in which there weren’t the same sort of succession of elite failures, wasn’t going to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.”… I’m not necessarily convinced that this is the defining cleavage of our era (see below), I’m convinced it’s a cleavage.

And yet, never underestimate the self-loathing contained in these kinds of essays…. By definition, cosmopolitans are supposed to be open to criticism–so any of them with any sense of self-doubt will seize upon this argument as an example of what’s what’s wrong with their lives.

The final point, however, is that the rooted/cosmopolitan divide is only one of many…. I’m not even sure it’s the most salient…. Replace ‘nativist’ with ‘old’ and ‘cosmopolitan’ with ‘young.’… Does talking about a young/old divide make things any different?… Douthat is no doubt correct to point out the biases that cosmopolitans possess. But his implicit counterpoint is that nativists possess some deep reservoir of local knowledge that cosmopolitans overlook. Except that if the cleavage is split by age, it suggests… older voters… fueled by a sense of nostalgia… that… may or may not be true….. George Saunders….

The Trump supporter might be best understood as a guy who wakes up one day in a lively, crowded house full of people, from a dream in which he was the only one living there, and then mistakes the dream for the past: a better time, manageable and orderly, during which privilege and respect came to him naturally, and he had the whole place to himself…. Spoiled Americans, imbued with unreasonable boomer expectations… grievances… more theoretical than actual, more media-induced than experience-related.

Indeed, Trump’s whole campaign shtick is predicated on this kind of nostalgia, which contains far more truthiness than truth.

Must-Read: Austin Smith: Don’t Punish Journalists for Software Problems

Must-Read: Austin Smith: Don’t Punish Journalists for Software Problems: “Editors are cornered by two problems…

…a hard job that gets harder by the month, and a media/social beast that feeds ravenously on every minor mistake.

No, wait, sorry, some editors are cornered by three problems, because their news organizations can’t get their damn CMS straight…. At the heart of any CMS is a text editor, which must offer writers and editors many different options for presenting an article correctly in every form factor. The text editor in the Daily News’s CMS stripped out formatting that declared blockquotes or hanging indents. Whoops! Of these three problems… one is actually possible to solve right now. It is absolutely possible to build a CMS that handles inbound formatting neatly…

Must-Read: James Pethokoukis: The Magical Thinking of America’s Pro-Brexit Conservatives

Must-Read: James Pethokoukis: The Magical Thinking of America’s Pro-Brexit Conservatives: “Lawrence Kudlow called Brexit a ‘Thatcher moment’ that could put Britain ‘on the pro-growth path of free-market supply-side policies’…

…The Wall Street Journal … explained… ‘now more than ever Britain will need supply-side economic policies that reassure investors and make Britain a growth model for Europe.’… By detaching from the EU regulatory superstate, an unchained Britain would return to its risk-taking, free-trading roots. London would become a sort of Hong Kong on the Thames, England a Texas on the North Sea. With the Voldemort of Brussels vanquished, free-market magic could be unleashed. Economicus growthus leviosa! Or not.

This is the sort of magical, fantastical thinking all too common in the Republican Party and among American conservatives… why Donald Trump can offer a $10 trillion tax cut plan that would need to quintuple GDP growth to break even–all with scant criticism from many leading voices on the right…. Even if you doubt the potential for long-term damage–permanently slower economic growth, the disintegration of the EU–the short-term post-Brexit picture is pretty ugly…. A 2017 recession as likely. Not to mention that disentangling from the EU might consume British politics and policy for years. And all for what, exactly? The U.K…. ranks ninth for global competitiveness, says the World Economic Forum. And it ranks 10th… on the Index of Economic Freedom…. Britain is already a relatively well-run, free-trading nation…. Never has so much been risked for potentially so little.

Must-Read: Jay Rosen: Facebook Backs Off on the View from Nowhere

Must-Read: Jay Rosen: Facebook Backs Off on the View from Nowhere: “Today Facebook released a document it calls: News Feed Values. It’s a start…

…For a long time Facebook wouldn’t even say it had priorities. It would describe you as the editor of News Feed: you, rather than Facebook…. But… we want to know: what are you optimizing for, along with user interest? How do you see your role within a news ecosystem where you are more and more the dominant player? In news, you have power now. It is growing. Help us understand how you intend to use it. What kind of filter will you be? What kind of player… playing for what? The document released today is not a revelation, but it does say a few interesting things. Here is my summary of News Feed’s editorial philosophy:

Your social graph comes first, not the public world. Informing you is a higher priority than entertaining you. But we think ‘information’ comes in many forms, not just serious news. A good recipe for beer can chicken is information to the person who is looking for it. We don’t exclude points of view we don’t like, or favor the sources we do like. We let the invisible hand of user choice make those decisions. Except: We do try to edit out what people find misleading, sensational, spammy–mere click bait. We do police nudity, hate speech, personal abuse, and violent or overly graphic content….

No one should expect Facebook to be a traffic distributor because that is not a priority the company has for its product…. One more thing Facebook says… its committed to the personalization of News Feed as a kind of right that users have. ‘You control your experience.’ I will be worth watching how this rights revolution in news display unfolds…

Must-Read: Andrew Golis: Comments Are Usually Garbage. We’re Adding Comments to This.!

Must-Read: Andrew Golis: Comments Are Usually Garbage. We’re Adding Comments to This.!: “Comments, on most websites most of the time, are garbage…

…When comments are garbage, so are our communities. The conversations we have allow us to explore ideas and stories, and to build relationships. Comments form conversations, and conversations form communities. So when we started This. (a network where you can share just 1 link a day), we knew two things: 1. the first version of the site wouldn’t have comments, and 2. we’d only add them when we thought we could devote the time and attention to succeeding where others have failed…. Over the course of the next 6 months, we’ll build what we think will be a powerful new way to comment…. This first step is pretty rudimentary: simple text comments below a shared link. But it comes with 3 unique elements…. 1. Members can opt out…. 2. Conversations get their own notifications page…. 3. No Assholes…. We think conversations will allow our members to form into a fun, smart-as-hell community. We can’t wait to unveil what we’ve got coming in the weeks and months ahead. As always, we work best when we hear from our members. Have thoughts? See bugs? Have a suitcase full of cold hard cash in need of a new home? Email me.