Should-Read: Robert C. Feenstra and Akira Sasaharab: The “China Shock”, Exports and U.S. Employment: A Global Input-Output Analysis

Should-Read: Robert C. Feenstra and Akira Sasaharab: The “China Shock”, Exports and U.S. Employment: A Global Input-Output Analysis: “We quantify the impact on U.S. employment from imports and exports during 1995-2011, using the World Input-Output Database…

…We find that the growth in U.S. exports led to increased demand for 2 million jobs in manufacturing, 0.5 million in resource industries, and a remarkable 4.1 million jobs in services, totaling 6.6 million. Two-thirds of those service sectors jobs are due to the export of services themselves, whereas one-third is due to the intermediate demand from manufacturing and resource – or merchandise – exports, so the total labor demand gain due to merchandise exports was 3.7 million jobs. In comparison, U.S. merchandise imports from China led to reduced demand of 1.4 million jobs in manufacturing and 0.6 million in services (with small losses in resource industries), with total job losses of 2.0 million. It follows that the expansion in U.S. merchandise exports relative to imports from China over 1995-2011 created net demand for about 1.7 million jobs. Comparing the growth of U.S. merchandise exports to merchandise imports from all countries, we find a fall in net labor demand due to trade, but comparing the growth of total U.S. exports to total imports from all countries, then there is a rise in net labor demand because of the growth in service exports.

**Should-Read: Robert C. Feenstra, Yuan Xu, and Hong Ma: US Exports and Employment: “We examine the employment responses to import competition from China and to global export expansion from the United States…

…both of which have been expanding strongly during the past decades. We find that although Chinese imports reduce jobs, at both the industry level and the local commuting zone level, the global export expansion of US products also creates a considerable number of jobs. On balance over the entire 1991-2007 period, job gains due to changes in US global exports were slightly less than job losses due to Chinese imports. Using data at both the industry level and the commuting zones level, we find a net loss of around 0.2-0.3 million jobs. When we extend the analysis to 1991-2011, we find the net job effect of import and export exposure is roughly balanced at the commuting zone level.

September 26, 2017


Brad DeLong
Connect with us!

Explore the Equitable Growth network of experts around the country and get answers to today's most pressing questions!

Get in Touch