Should-Read: Pedro Nicolaci da Costa: Trump Tax-Cut Agenda Faces Challenges

Should-Read: I cannot see Trump-Ryan-McConnell coming up with anything that would get 60 votes in the Senate, and perhaps even 218 in the House, by themselves. And I do not see them willing to give what they would need to give in the way of Democratic priorities in order to get both Pelosi and Schumer on board in the sense of being willing to stand aside when Trump-Ryan-McConnell go hunting for Democratic legislative votes. So what is this tax reform that is going to pass? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Pedro Nicolaci da Costa: Trump Tax-Cut Agenda Faces Challenges: “It, it would seem like tax cuts would be fairly simple for a Republican president backed by a Republican majority in Congress…

…But… there is little unity within the governing party…. And the tax policies… aren’t… simple anyway[:]… sharp cuts in corporate taxes and taxes on wealthy individuals… a hefty levy on imports, a total rewriting of corporate tax codes, and a change in… deductions… that could neutralize a huge windfall to homeowners…. “Tax reform… is every bit as complicated as health care,” said Mark Hamrick…. “The looming unpopular issue of the border adjustment tax is just one of the complicated policy wild cards…. It has been decades since significant tax reform has passed in Washington because it is not easy.” The so-called border adjustment tax, which would punish importers while rewarding exporters… is a highly controversial and, yes, complicated proposal that has already become a source of infighting within the White House…. Making matters worse, Trumpcare’s failure has deprived small-government conservatives of the “fiscal space” they had expected from kicking millions of Americans off the insurance rolls, which is what… the Obamacare repeal would have done. They’d regain that space… [with] a border adjustment tax… but they’d have to get it past free-trade advocates in their own party….

[And] another potentially insurmountable hurdle to the sort of tax reform they seek: newly-empowered Democrats… smell[ing] blood…. Trump… must work with them to actually pass any tax legislation. Their propensity to cooperate given the president’s aggressive rhetoric… will be quite low…. Bernie Sanders… was already preempting the debate on MSNBC on the very night of Trumpcare’s demise: “What this tax cut fight is about is giving huge tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans.”

March 26, 2017

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Brad DeLong
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