Should-Read: Dietz Vollrath: Dumb Luck in Historical Development

Should-Read: Dietz Vollrath: Dumb Luck in Historical Development: “Philip Hoffman’s Why Did Europe Conquer the World?… on its face is another…

…in a long line… argu[ing that] Western European economic and colonial dominance is… due to a… specific characteristic: disease tolerance, or cows, or a knobbly coastline…. Hoffman… learning-by-doing in gunpowder technology, but where learning-by-doing only occurs if you actually fight. Hence… four conditions… frequent war, lots of resources expended on those wars, use of gunpowder specifically in those wars, and few barriers to adoption of new technology…. Europe happened to meet the four conditions because of contingent historical events. In other words, Europe randomly found itself with a political setting that encouraged many high-stakes wars that involved gunpowder. Its lead was not due to some unique European characteristic, but rather was luck of the draw…. Are there any deep structural advantages that Europe had? Maybe. But my guess is that a good portion (over 50%?) of the reason Europe advanced ahead of other areas was dumb luck…. A tip of the hat to Hoffman for his effort in that direction…