Must-Reads: July 21, 2016


Should Reads:

Must-Read: Maury Obstfeld: A Spanner in the Works

Maury Obstfeld: A Spanner in the Works: An Update to the World Economic Outlook: “Because the future effects of Brexit are exceptionally uncertain…

…the World Economic Outlook Update presents two model-based illustrations of alternative scenarios to the baseline–one that is moderately worse, and another that is much worse. These scenarios are driven by the uncertainty Brexit introduces about the U.K.’s ultimate trade relationship with the remainder of the European Union and the wider world; the length and contentiousness of the negotiations; markets’ difficulty in gauging the resulting depressing effects on demand; and resulting financial tightening leading to widespread banking-sector stress in the euro area…. A main reason we place less weight on these alternative scenarios, especially the more severe one, is that financial markets have proven resilient in the weeks after the referendum, repricing in an orderly fashion to absorb the news. This benign result owes importantly to the market perception–and the reality–of major central banks’ readiness to provide liquidity to markets. But vulnerabilities persist, not least in some of Europe’s banks…

Must-Read: Topher Spiro, Maura Calsyn, and Meghan O’Toole: Bigger Is Not Better: Proposed Insurer Mergers Are Likely to Harm Consumers and Taxpayers

Must-Read: Topher Spiro, Maura Calsyn, and Meghan O’Toole: Bigger Is Not Better: Proposed Insurer Mergers Are Likely to Harm Consumers and Taxpayers: “The primary example of research…

…a 1999 merger between Aetna and Prudential… statistically signifcant effects in raising premium prices… premiums that were 7 percent higher by 2007 than they would have been if local market concentration had remained the same as prior to the merger….2008… Sierra Health Services and UnitedHealth Group… the small-group insurance market… small-group premiums in the Nevada markets increased by 13.7 percent in the year a er the merger…

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Must-Reads: July 20, 2016


Should Reads:

Meet Equitable Growth’s 2016 grantees

The Washington Center for Equitable Growth is excited to introduce our 2016 round of grantees. These grants are being awarded to researchers who are investigating the various channels through which inequality may affect economic growth and stability. The principal investigators receiving these grants are diverse in their research interests and backgrounds, and include full-fledged researchers as well as doctoral students.

The grants are awarded in one of four categories identified in our request for proposals:  macroeconomic stability; human capital and the labor market; governance and institutions; and innovation. This third round of grant-giving further enables Equitable Growth to build out a growing body of research that allows us to knit together a greater understanding of the U.S. economy. Please visit our grantee page for more information on past grantees.

Here is a brief overview of our newest, 2016 grantees.

Macroeconomics

 Three academic grants will support research on how economic inequality affects macroeconomic growth and stability:

  • Jess Benhabib, Alberto Bisin, and Mi Luo of New York University will assess how the distribution of earned income, the rate of return for various assets, and the nature of bequests determine wealth inequality.
  • Gauti Eggertsson and Neil Mehrotra of Brown University will build a model to demonstrate how higher income inequality has reduced the natural rate of interest through increased overall saving.
  • Adriana Kugler and Ammar Farooq of Georgetown University will examine whether extensions of unemployment insurance benefits improve job-match quality, and the role that unemployment insurance plays in improving worker outcomes.

Three doctoral grants will support further research on macroeconomic growth and stability:

  • Alexander Bartik of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology will explore the distributional implications of fracking and mass transit expansions using longitudinal U.S. Census Bureau microdata.
  • John Coglianese of Harvard University will construct a comprehensive measure of underemployment and integrate it into commonly-used economic models to showcase the effects of underemployment on the functioning of the labor market.
  • Andrew Elrod of the University of California-Santa Barbara will examine how the reorganization of the U.S. banking sector after World War II altered the relationship between profitable investment and macroeconomic stability.

Human capital and the labor market

Two academic grants will support research on how economic inequality affects the development of human capital, and to what extent aggregate trends in human capital explain inequality dynamics:

  • Christopher Jencks and Beth Truesdale of Harvard University will investigate the relationship between inequality and health outcomes, which will further research on the relationship between income and life expectancy.
  • Marta Murray-Close and Joya Misra of the University of Massachusetts-Amherst will construct estimates of how parenthood contributes to the gender wage gap and, in turn, how supporting working parents is key to promoting gender equity.

Three doctoral grants will support further research on human capital:

  • Sydnee Caldwell of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology will draw on employer-employee data to document access to high-wage firms and movements between high- and low-wage firms over the span of a worker’s career.
  • Blythe George of Harvard University will focus on the lack of employment options and life outcomes on the Yurok and Hoopa Valley Native American tribal reservations.
  • Mariana Zerpa of the University of Arizona will explore the impact of large-scale, publicly-funded preschool education programs on health and developmental outcomes for children ages 4 to 12.

Innovation

 Two academic grants will support research on how economic inequality affects the quantity and quality of innovation, and whether technology innovations, in turn, affects inequality:

  • Kyle Herkenhoff of the University of Minnesota and Gordon Phillips of Dartmouth College will study access to credit, via the removal of bankruptcy flags, on key outcomes, including business formation rates, earnings, and profitability.
  • Heidi Williams of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Patrick Kline of the University of California-Berkeley, Neviana Petkova of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and Owen Zidar of the University of Chicago will create a new dataset that links patent applications to business tax records to estimate the relative effects of patent-generated monopoly rents on firm returns and worker wages.

Two doctoral grants will support further research on innovation:

  • Xavier Jaravel of Harvard University will examine whether economic inequality affects the type of innovation that takes place and who benefits from that innovation.
  • Hannah Rubinton of Princeton University will analyze how trends in firm start-up rates affect consumer welfare and productivity growth.

Governance and institutions        

 Three academic grants will support research on how levels and trends in economic inequality affect the quality of social and political institutions that contribute to economic well-being and economic growth:

  • Manasi Deshpande of the University of Chicago, Tal Gross of Columbia University, and Jialan Wang of the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will quantify how public assistance affects households’ financial well-being through increasing access to credit.
  • Jane Waldfogel of Columbia University, Ann Bartel of Columbia University, Maya Rossin-Slater of the University of California-Santa Barbara, and Christopher Ruhm of the University of Virginia will investigate inequality in employer-provided paid parental leave in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
  • Joan Williams of the University of California-Hastings College of the Law, Susan Lambert of the University of Chicago, and Saravanan Kesavan of the University of North Carolina Kenan-Flager Business School will continue research on whether shifting hourly workers to more stable schedules results in cost savings and increases business productivity.

One doctoral grant will support further research on governance and institutions:

  • Ellora Derenoncourt of Harvard University will use online lab experiments and employee-employer matched data to look at labor market decisions, testing for individual social preferences over payoff distributions.

For more details, please see the presentations of the 2016 grantees’ projects. And check out our 2014 and 2015 grantees’ project descriptions for a wide range of examples of the types of work that we fund.

Must-Read: Viktor Slavtchev and Simon Wiederhold: Does the Technological Content of Government Demand Matter for Private R&D?

Must-Read: Viktor Slavtchev and Simon Wiederhold: Does the Technological Content of Government Demand Matter for Private R&D?: “Governments purchase everything from airplanes to zucchini…

…This paper investigates the role of the technological content of government procurement in innovation…. Theoreticall… a shift in the composition of public purchases toward high-tech products translates into higher economy-wide returns to innovation, leading to an increase in the aggregate level of private research and development (R&D). Collecting unique panel data on federal procurement in US states, we find that reshuffling procurement toward high-tech industries has an economically and statistically significant positive effect on private R&D, even after extensively controlling for other R&D determinants. Instrumental-variable estimations support a causal interpretation of our findings.

Must-Read: Tim Duy: Why the Fed Can’t and Shouldn’t Raise Interest Rates

Must-Read: Tim Duy: Why the Fed Can’t and Shouldn’t Raise Interest Rates: “The Fed should consider the need for two targets…

…the level of rates and the slope of the yield curve…. For now, the Fed appears committed to just the interest rate tool. And in some ways, that is no surprise. Short-term rates are a comfortable tool for the Fed, whereas playing with the yield curve via the balance sheet is seen as fraught with danger. But with the yield curve flattening as the economy approaches full employment, they may find themselves unable to maintain the appropriate level of financial accommodation via rate policy alone…. The Fed needs to remember that how they got into this policy stance may offer a lesson for how to get out. Policy makers cut rates to zero and then instituted quantitative easing. Now they should consider selling assets before raising rates. Or, at a minimum, utilizing a mixed strategy of rate hikes and asset sales. The objective of meeting the Fed’s mandate in the context of maintaining financial stability may be unattainable using the interest rate tool and associated forward guidance alone. Unfortunately, the Fed does not appear to be debating the policy mix–at least not in public. They remain focused on interest rates, delaying balance sheet policy to a later date. On the current trajectory, however, that later date may never come.

Must-Read: Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato and Philippe Wingender: Estimating Local Fiscal Multipliers

Must-Read: Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato and Philippe Wingender: Estimating Local Fiscal Multipliers: “A large number of federal spending programs depend on local population levels. Every ten years, the Census provides a count… [with] a different method… used to estimate non-Census year populations…

…This change in methodology leads to variation in the allocation of billions of dollars in federal spending. Our baseline results follow a treatment-effects framework where we estimate the effect of a Census Shock on federal spending, income, and employment growth by re-weighting the data based on an estimated propensity score that depends on lagged economic outcomes and observed economic shocks. Our estimates imply a local income multiplier of government spending between 1.7 and 2, and a cost per job of $30,000 per year. A complementary IV estimation strategy yields similar estimates. We also explore the potential for spillover effects across neighboring counties but we do not find evidence of sizable spillovers. Finally, we test for heterogeneous effects of government spending and find that federal spending has larger impacts in low-growth areas.