Must-Read: Mark Roe: Surviving the Next Housing-Market Hurricane

Must-Read: Mark Roe: Surviving the Next Housing-Market Hurricane: “illiquid real estate cannot solidly underpin a stable market for overnight obligations forever…

…Like a hurricane, this disaster smashed into the financial system, which could not absorb the losses smoothly. So regulators are constructing stronger buildings that can withstand a financial hurricane…. But what if overnight mortgage-pool buyers decide, in the face of a crisis, that it is not worth waiting around to find out whether the highly complex mechanisms meant to ensure that they are paid will work as planned?… The safety level for a single failed bank is probably high nowadays. But there seem to be too many weaknesses in the overall system to guarantee against a rout if several banks failed simultaneously–or, worse, if the entire housing market, built on an unstable market of overnight lending, suffered another of its once-in-a-generation crises. By making housing-based short-term debt more attractive than other savings channels, we are courting trouble…. It is impossible, even for regulators, to know for sure whether the system can withstand a market-wide failure. Given that the world suffers from major housing bubbles every decade or so, it might not be many years before we find out.

The vast wealth gap between black and white women in the United States

Women of all races in the United States don’t get paid as much as men for doing the same job, but the financial discrepancies for black women are especially troubling. That’s not just in terms of income—black women bring home 63 cents (compared to 75 cents for white women) for every dollar a white man earns—but also in terms of wealth. A new report looks at household wealth between black and white women and find that black women face a glaring gap in terms of wealth in comparison to men as well as to white women.

The report, by Khaing Zaw, Anne Price, William Darity, Jr., all of Duke University, Jhumpa Bhattacharya of the Insight Center for Community Economic Development, and Darrick Hamilton of The New School of Social Research, is important in an era in which women are increasingly playing the role of breadwinner and a growing number of men are dropping out of the labor force altogether. But as the authors point out, black women face more significant roadblocks despite having the highest growth rate of college enrollment of any other group.

The authors of the report look at patterns of household wealth between black and white women, separating the results out by education and marital status, both of which are traditionally seen as a factor in women’s wealth accumulation. They find that marriage and education do have a significant impact on how much wealth white women amass compared to married and/or educated black women, who only see slight increases—and the wealth gap is even wider compared to single, uneducated women. (See Figure 1.)

Figure 1

Wealth is measured by the total of one’s assets—cash in banks, stocks, bonds, and real estate—minus debts such as home mortgages, auto loans, credit card debt, and student loans. Therefore, it’s important to note that a young woman who has a well-paying job but is paying off student debt and a mortgage isn’t necessarily in bad financial shape. Instead, she is investing in things that will likely yield high returns in the future. But when the five researchers separate out their results by age, they find that the wealth gaps persist even among older women, who are more likely to have paid off these kinds of investments. (See Figure 2.)

Figure 2

The median wealth levels of single black women ages 60 and older with a college degree is $11,000 compared to a whopping median of $384,400 for their white counterparts,  nearly 35 times the black median. And, while married, college-educated black women see greater gains, it is still half of what white women in the same category have accumulated. In an era in which employers are rapidly moving away from traditional pensions and toward individual retirement plans, the fact that black women have been hindered from saving enough is a big problem.

This is just one of the reasons that wealth inequality in the United States is arguably just as important, if not more important, than income inequality. While income is used to pay for daily and monthly necessities, it is the accumulation of wealth that allows individuals and families to attain long-term financial stability. Wealth allows families to buy a home, start a business, or make other forward-looking investments. It serves as a buffer in the case of job-loss or illness. Family wealth is also passed onto the next generation, whether through direct transfers or indirect ones such as college tuition.

The racial wealth gap can be directly attributed to a confluence of discriminatory policies going back to the New Deal and extended through the GI bill, the mortgage-interest tax deduction and other real-estate tax deductions, and discrimination embedded in higher education, labor markets, and housing policies—all of which helped build the white American middle class while leaving other racial and ethnic groups behind. The Great Recession of 2007-2009 further deepened the divide, as black and Hispanic individuals received subprime loans at a rate much higher than white individuals with the same credit score and bore the brunt of the collapse.

While there is no single solution to address the racial wealth gap, overhauling the mortgage credit system, combating unemployment and mass incarceration, and ending discriminatory housing policies are places to start. What is clear is that market forces or individual determination alone cannot overcome the decades of barriers put in place by decades of discriminatory policies and lack of equal enforcement of the law.

Must- and Should-Reads: January 31, 2017


Interesting Reads:

U.S. homeownership tax policies are expensive and inequitable

The analysis “U.S. homeownership tax policies are expensive and inequitable,” contained errors that had been identified by Equitable Growth. Before the errors could be corrected, Congress enacted major tax legislation that substantially changed the policies discussed in the piece. As a result, Equitable Growth no longer plans to post a corrected version of the analysis and has removed the original.

Helicopter Money: When Zero Just Isn’t Low Enough: Milken Review

At Milken Review: Helicopter Money: When Zero Just Isn’t Low Enough: If you pay much attention to the chattering classes — those who chatter about economics, anyway — you’ve probably run across the colorful term “helicopter money.” At root, the concept is disarmingly simple. It’s money created at the discretion of the Federal Reserve (or any central bank) that could be used to increase purchasing power in times of recession. But the controversy over helicopter money (formally, money-financed fiscal policy) is hardly straightforward… Read MOAR at Milken Review

Should-Read: Neil Cummins: Longevity and the Rise of the West: Lifespans of the European Elite, 800-1800

Should-Read: Neil Cummins: Longevity and the Rise of the West: Lifespans of the European Elite, 800-1800: “From the age at death of 121,524 European nobles from 800 to 1800…

…Longevity began increasing long before 1800 and the Industrial Revolution, with marked increases around 1400 and again around 1650. Declines in violence contributed to some of this increase, but the majority must reflect other changes in individual behavior. The areas of North-West Europe which later witnessed the Industrial Revolution achieved greater longevity than the rest of Europe even by 1000 AD. The data suggest that the ‘Rise of the West’ originates before the Black Death.

Berkeley Economic History Seminar 211 :: Monday, January 30, 2017 2:00pm – 3:30pm :: 639 Evans Hall

Must-Read: Simon Schama: Joyless Fantasies Abound in Trump’s Inauguration Speech

Must-Read: Simon Schama: Joyless Fantasies Abound in Trump’s Inauguration Speech: “The 45th president is not only a cantankerous man but… a mentally lazy one…

…who cannot be bothered to read daily intelligence briefings and whose speech was a barely defrosted abridgment of the acceptance tirade at Cleveland… a red rag of an address stitched together from other people’s rhetorical cast-offs…. Bannon… may think he’s restarting the New Deal’s investment in infrastructure but, if historical memory serves, Roosevelt did not actually start with a massive tax break for the top 1 per cent. In all likelihood the president will not be sweating the small stuff, emerging from the sand trap every so often to snarl and bludgeon frightened executives with taking away their toys unless they repair immediately to Duluth and open a widget factory. The actual heavy lifting will be delegated to his cabinet which largely conforms to what the Greeks called a “kakistocracy”: ​government of the least-qualified….

When it’s a matter of Rick Perry, nominated as energy secretary not knowing that his department is responsible for America’s nuclear stockpile, incredulous derision turns to red alert…. A minority vote has, through the anachronisms of the electoral college, imposed the priorities of rural and small town America on the great, populous, cosmopolitan cities…. ​The rest of the world might feel inclined to greet this swerve into isolationism, the arrival of a smaller, narrower, not a greater America, with a shrug were it not for the fact that however much President Trump wants to decree it away, global interconnectedness is an unavoidable fact of life in the 21st century…. Mr Trump’s repeated declaration of Nato’s obsolescence, and the doubt he has cast over the treaty’s obligation to treat an attack on one member as an attack on all, is tantamount to an invitation to Russian adventurism… greeted by ultranationalists and fascists from in Europe with the kind of manic glee displayed by beach bullies kicking in the sandcastle….

“The time for empty talk is over. The time for action is here,” the president proclaimed. The American majority, multitudes of whom look on his proposals with dismay and revulsion, should now take those words to heart.

Should-Read: Alex Field: Review of Marc Levinson: An Extraordinary Time: The End of the Postwar Boom and the Return of the Ordinary Economy

Should-Read: Alex Field: Review of Marc Levinson: An Extraordinary Time: The End of the Postwar Boom and the Return of the Ordinary Economy: “1948 to 1973 has long been considered the golden age of the U.S. economy…

…And then it fell apart.  TFP growth in the United States, except for a modest revival between 1995 and 2005, experienced retardation.  Labor productivity and the material standard of living grew more slowly, with almost all of the gains going to the top.  Consumption was sustained by rising women’s labor force participation and increasing household debt levels.  Financial crises, including in developed countries, became more frequent.  And governments and all their economic advisors seemed largely powerless to change this reality. Marc Levinson provides a well written narrative of the descent from the golden age into what has become the new ordinary….

The book has many strengths. First, the narrative is based in part on original archival research…. Second, it can be thought of as a G-7 book…. The juxtaposition of narratives from different states reveals differences but also the worldwide incidence of a sea change in the developed world starting in the 1970s. Finally, Levinson’s assessments of policy regimes and policy initiatives are data driven and balanced….

There are, however, several instances in which Levinson does not quite get on top of important conceptual or accounting distinctions…. Levinson (along with many others) doesn’t understand the distinction in bank regulation between liquidity and capital requirements…. Levinson’s discussion of why labor’s share has declined is something of a mish-mash.  The main cause, he suggests (p. 142) “was most likely a speedup in the rate of technological change.”  But all the data that Levinson reviews shows that the drop in labor’s share coincided with the drop in TFP growth that marked the post-1973 period. It’s possible that if the bias of technological change altered — if it became more labor saving — it served to weaken labor’s bargaining position, and Levinson seems to be making that argument as well…. A related confusion pops up on p. 155, where he observes that politicians, in the face of the sea change, continued to offer programs devoted “to dividing up the fruits of plenty, not to reviving productivity growth and adjusting to a world of rapid technological change.”  It is difficult to imagine an economy simultaneously experiencing both declining productivity growth and an accelerating rate of technological change….

My noting of these issues should not discourage academic economists from reading this book…. The book provides a welcome introduction to very important chapters in twentieth century economic history.

Marc Levinson, An Extraordinary Time: The End of the Postwar Boom and the Return of the Ordinary Economy.  New York: Basic Books, 2016. vii + 326 pp.  $28 (cloth), ISBN: 978-0-465-06198-3.

Should-Read: Wolfgang Dauth, Sebastian Findeisen, and Jens Südekum: Globalisation and sectoral employment trends in Germany

Should-Read: Wolfgang Dauth, Sebastian Findeisen, and Jens Südekum: [Globalisation and sectoral employment trends in Germany]: “The decline of manufacturing jobs in the US has been the focus of much attention recently…

…with rising trade with China cited as one explanation. This column describes how the German economy has experienced a similar secular decline in manufacturing and rising service employment, but that growing trade with China and Eastern Europe did not speed up this trend. In fact, rising exports to the new markets have stabilised industry jobs…

Must- and Should-Reads: January 29, 2017


Interesting Reads: