Should-Read: Söhnke M. Bartram and Mark Grinblatt: Agnostic fundamental analysis works

Should-Read: Söhnke M. Bartram and Mark Grinblatt: Agnostic fundamental analysis works: “We take the view of a statistician with little knowledge of finance…

…[who] uses… least squares to estimate peer-implied fair values from the market values of replicating portfolios with the same accounting statements as the company being valued. Divergence of a company’s peer-implied value estimate from its market value represents mispricing, motivating a convergence trade that earns risk-adjusted returns of up to 10% per year and is economically significant for both large and small cap firms. The rate of convergence decays to zero over the subsequent 34 months…

Should-Read: Heather Boushey: The tax bill should’ve been called The Inequality Exacerbation Act

Should-Read: Heather Boushey: The tax bill should’ve been called The Inequality Exacerbation Act: “Policymakers should reform the corporate tax system while maintaining or increasing the level of revenues it raises…

…In prior years, policymakers believed that corporate tax reform should be “revenue neutral.”… More money in the pockets of poor and middle-income taxpayers is what will drive companies to invest…. We should be acting to reduce inequality. We need to address America’s needs for investments in infrastructure, science, education and health care…. We need the best-educated workers…. We need a tax reform agenda that delivers the revenue our nation needs to succeed in the 21st century. We should not be under the illusion that this Congress and this president will reverse course. But those who believe the first priority should be to make our economy stronger and spread the benefits of growth more widely must be prepared to pursue those policies when we have the chance…

John Maynard Keynes (1924): Tract on Monetary Reform

Must-Read: John Maynard Keynes (1924): Tract on Monetary Reform: “Inflation and Deflation… inflicted great injuries…

…Each as an effect in altering the distribution of wealth, Inflation in this respect being the worse…. Each has also an effect in overstimulating or retarding the production of wealth though here Deflation is the ore injurious…. How have the price changes of the past nine years affected the productivity of the community… and… the conflicting interests and mutual relations of its component classes? The answer to these questions will serve to establish the gravity of the evils….

If the depreciation of money is a source of gain to the business man [nominal debtor], it is also the occasion of opprobrium…. No man of spirit will consent to remain poor if he believes his betters to have gained their goods by lucky gambling. To convert the business man into the profiteer is to strike a blow at capitalism, because it destroys the psychological equilibrium which permits the perpetuance of unequal rewards…. If the fall in the value of money discourages investment, it also discredits enterprise….

Inflation redistributes wealth…. Its most striking consequence is its injustice to those who in good faith have committed their savings to titles to money rather than to things…. Injustice on such a scale has further consequences…. Inflation has… destroyed the atmosphere of confidence which is a condition of the willingness to save….

We see, therefore, that rising prices and falling prices each have their characteristic disadvantage. The Inflation which causes the former means Injustice to individuals and to classes, particularly to investors; and is therefore unfavourable to saving. The Deflation which causes falling prices means Impoverishment to labour and to enterprise by leading entrepreneurs to restrict production, in their endeavour to avoid loss to themselves; and is therefore disastrous to employment.

The counterparts are, of course, also true,—namely that Deflation means Injustice to borrowers, and that Inflation leads to the over-stimulation of industrial activity. But these results are not so marked as those emphasized above, because borrowers are in a better position to protect themselves from the worst effects of Deflation than lenders are to protect themselves from those of Inflation, and because labour is in a better position to protect itself from over-exertion in good times than from under-employment in bad times.

Thus Inflation is unjust and Deflation is inexpedient. Of the two perhaps Deflation is, if we rule out exaggerated inflations such as that of German, the worse; because it is worse, in an impoverished world, to provoke unemployment than to disappoint the rentier. But it is not necessary that weigh one evil against the other. It is easier to agree that both are evils to be shunned.

Individualistic Capitalism of to-day, precisely because it entrusts saving to the individual investor and production to the individual employer, presumes a stable measuring-rod of value, and cannot be efficient—perhaps cannot survive—without one.

For these grave causes we must free ourselves from the deep distrust which exists against allowing the regulation of the standard of value to be the subject of deliberate decision. We can no longer afford to leave it in the category of which the distinguishing characteristics are possessed in different degrees by the weather, the birth-rate, and the Constitution,—matters which are settled by natural causes, or are the resultant of the separate action of many individuals acting independently, or require a Revolution to change them…

Robert E. Hall and Thomas J. Sargent: Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman’s Presidential Address

Should-Read: WTF?! Real economic outcomes are not invariant to the monetary policy rule. A gold standard, a silver standard, adoption or non-adoption of Bagehot’s Rule, a constant stock of high-powered money rule, a constant broad money stock rule, a k% growth rate rule, a k% growth rate rule with base drift, a k% growth rate rule with catchup after unexpected shortfalls, inflation targeting, price level targeting, inflation targeting switching to price level targeting with catchup at the ZLB—to claim that “real outcomes are invariant to the monetary policy rule, not just to the trend in inflation” is to ignore most of monetary economics. Why are these people writing this?: Robert E. Hall and Thomas J. Sargent Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman’s Presidential Address: “The immediate effect of Friedman’s 1968 AEA presidential address on the economics profession was the introduction of an adaptive term in the Phillips curve…

…that shifted the curve, as Friedman proposed, based on expected inflation. Initial formulations suggested that the shift was less than point-for-point, but later thinking, based on the emerging idea of rational expectations, together with the experience of the 1970s, came to agree with Friedman that the shift was by the full amount. The profession also recognized that Friedman’s point was deeper—real outcomes are invariant to the monetary policy rule, not just to the trend in inflation. The presidential address made an important contribution to the conduct of monetary policy around the world. It ushered in low and stable inflation rates in all advanced countries, and in many less advanced ones…

Much, much better would have been to simply parrot John Maynard Keynes (1924): Tract on Monetary Reform: “Inflation and Deflation… inflicted great injuries…

…Each as an effect in altering the distribution of wealth, Inflation in this respect being the worse…. Each has also an effect in overstimulating or retarding the production of wealth though here Deflation is the ore injurious…. How have the price changes of the past nine years affected the productivity of the community… and… the conflicting interests and mutual relations of its component classes? The answer to these questions will serve to establish the gravity of the evils….

If the depreciation of money is a source of gain to the business man [nominal debtor], it is also the occasion of opprobrium…. No man of spirit will consent to remain poor if he believes his betters to have gained their goods by lucky gambling. To convert the business man into the profiteer is to strike a blow at capitalism, because it destroys the psychological equilibrium which permits the perpetuance of unequal rewards…. If the fall in the value of money discourages investment, it also discredits enterprise….

Inflation redistributes wealth…. Its most striking consequence is its injustice to those who in good faith have committed their savings to titles to money rather than to things…. Injustice on such a scale has further consequences…. Inflation has… destroyed the atmosphere of confidence which is a condition of the willingness to save….

We see, therefore, that rising prices and falling prices each have their characteristic disadvantage. The Inflation which causes the former means Injustice to individuals and to classes, particularly to investors; and is therefore unfavourable to saving. The Deflation which causes falling prices means Impoverishment to labour and to enterprise by leading entrepreneurs to restrict production, in their endeavour to avoid loss to themselves; and is therefore disastrous to employment.

The counterparts are, of course, also true,—namely that Deflation means Injustice to borrowers, and that Inflation leads to the over-stimulation of industrial activity. But these results are not so marked as those emphasized above, because borrowers are in a better position to protect themselves from the worst effects of Deflation than lenders are to protect themselves from those of Inflation, and because labour is in a better position to protect itself from over-exertion in good times than from under-employment in bad times.

Thus Inflation is unjust and Deflation is inexpedient. Of the two perhaps Deflation is, if we rule out exaggerated inflations such as that of German, the worse; because it is worse, in an impoverished world, to provoke unemployment than to disappoint the rentier. But it is not necessary that weigh one evil against the other. It is easier to agree that both are evils to be shunned.

Individualistic Capitalism of to-day, precisely because it entrusts saving to the individual investor and production to the individual employer, presumes a stable measuring-rod of value, and cannot be efficient—perhaps cannot survive—without one.

For these grave causes we must free ourselves from the deep distrust which exists against allowing the regulation of the standard of value to be the subject of deliberate decision. We can no longer afford to leave it in the category of which the distinguishing characteristics are possessed in different degrees by the weather, the birth-rate, and the Constitution,—matters which are settled by natural causes, or are the resultant of the separate action of many individuals acting independently, or require a Revolution to change them…

Should-Read: Charlie Stross: Unforeseen Consequences and that 1929 vibe

Should-Read: BitCoin has no good endgame: Charlie Stross: Unforeseen Consequences and that 1929 vibe: “We’re going to run out of new BTC to mine… [then] the incentive for mining (a process essential for reconciling the public ledgers) will disappear…

…and the currency will… will what? The people most heavily invested in it will do their best to patch it up and keep it going, because what BTC most resembles (to my eye, and that of Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase) is a distributed Ponzi scheme. But when a Ponzi scheme blows out, it’s the people at the bottom who lose. The longer BTC persists, the worse the eventual blowout—and the more angry people there are going to be. Angry people who are currently being recruited and radicalized by neo-Nazis…

Should-Read: José Azar, Ioana Marinescu, Marshall I. Steinbaum: Labor Market Concentration

Should-Read: José Azar, Ioana Marinescu, Marshall I. Steinbaum: Labor Market Concentration: “A product market is concentrated when a few firms dominate the market…

…Similarly, a labor market is concentrated when a few firms dominate hiring in the market. Using data from… http://CareerBuilder.com, we calculate labor market concentration for over 8,000 geographic-occupational labor markets in the US. Based on the DOJ-FTC horizontal merger guidelines, the average market is highly concentrated. Using a panel IV regression, we show that going from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile in concentration is associated with a 15-25% decline in posted wages, suggesting that concentration increases labor market power…

Should-Read: Nouriel Roubini: The Mystery of the Missing Inflation

Should-Read: Nouriel Roubini: The Mystery of the Missing Inflation: “The recent growth acceleration in the advanced economies would be expected to bring with it a pickup in inflation…

…Yet core inflation has fallen in the US this year and remains stubbornly low in Europe and Japan…. One possible explanation… is… developed economies have been experiencing positive supply shocks…. Globalization… weaker unions and workers’ reduced bargaining power… oil and commodity prices are low or declining… technological innovations…. If… the shock is permanent, central banks should ease monetary conditions…. [But] the Fed has justified its decision to start normalizing rates… by arguing that the inflation-weakening supply-side shocks are temporary…. Central banks aren’t willing to give up on their formal 2% inflation target, [but] they are willing to prolong the timeline for achieving it…. This central bank patience risks de-anchoring inflation expectations downward…

In conversation with Richard Reeves

“Equitable Growth in Conversation” is a recurring series where we talk with economists and other social scientists to help us better understand whether and how economic inequality affects economic growth and stability.

In this installment, Equitable Growth’s Senior Director for Family Economic Security and Senior Fellow Elisabeth Jacobs talks with Richard Reeves, senior fellow in Economic Studies and co-director of the Center on Children and Families at The Brookings Institution and most recently the author of Dream Hoarders: How the American Upper Middle Class Is Leaving Everyone Else in the Dust, Why That Is a Problem, and What to Do About It (2017).

[Editor’s note: This conversation took place on October 11, 2017.]

Elisabeth Jacobs: Let’s jump right in, Richard. Who are the dream hoarders?

Richard Reeves: I define them in two ways. One, they are the people at the top of the income distribution who are essentially the winners of the inequality divide in our country, who have risen to the top over the past three or four decades. They are, in my view, the top 20 percent roughly of the income distribution. That means they earn healthy six-figure household incomes, with average incomes of about $200,000 a year.

This is where I see the divide between the bottom 80 percent and the top 20 percent. But then, more specifically, I identify some behaviors among those at the top of the distribution that I think amount to kind of a form of hoarding. In other words, they are kind of overconsuming, or unfairly consuming, some goods or services that actually give them a leg up or give their kids a leg up in a way that perpetuates the inequality that they are currently benefiting from.

Jacobs: What kinds of goods and services?

Reeves: Education and housing are at the top of my list, and the way that they kind of interact with each other. Think about the way the geography of our cities now reflects economic inequality. There has been a slight drop in racial segregation from very high levels but an increase in economic segregation between neighborhoods, between different areas. I think that’s true at the top, as well as the bottom of the income distribution too. So, we are seeing those who are affluent, the top 20 percent and above, separate themselves off into different neighborhoods, which means they can access education resources such as Kindergarten through grade 12 education, and then use local zoning laws to protect the neighborhoods and the land in those neighborhoods from incursions by those who are of more modest economic backgrounds.

That’s all subsidized through the federal mortgage interest deduction. If you want to think about the way in which money buys opportunity and therefore perpetuates inequality, the interaction between the income trends and earning trends, the residential segregation of neighborhoods, the way that education is provided and local zoning laws and regulation of land—they all interact with each other in a way that effectively means the federal government subsidizes me in an expensive neighborhood in an area with great schools. I can then defend against anybody else using unfair exclusionary zoning laws. And my kids therefore get to go to a good public high school and live in a relatively affluent neighborhood.

Jacobs: Why do you think this happened?

Reeves: It’s the combination of millions of small decisions. I think that what happened was that we’ve seen growing labor-market inequality, which combined with inequalities in family formation and family structure and, using a stunningly unromantic phrase, assortative mating, has led to even greater household income inequality. That money, in a society where money matters so much, has been able to be readily transferred into other kinds of advantages, including wealth, including housing, and including access to education.

So, you can see the how. The question then is why, and I think you have to talk about incentives, and the particular incentives of those who are doing well to protect their own position and to protect the position of their children. And I think there is inequality and class perpetuation that really speak to each other.

One of the things I think more strongly now than when I even wrote the book is that actually it’s a long way down from the upper-middle class. It’s a long way down. And the stakes are higher because actually dropping from the 90th to the 50th percentile of income doesn’t look very good down there.

Jacobs: Right.

Reeves: So, being in the middle or lower than that in the United States has dramatic consequences for other things such as access to health care, access to housing, and access to your kids’ education. So it’s both farther to fall and a harder landing, which means the upper 20 percent are highly incentivized to use every means at their disposal to protect their position and the position of their children, and if there are tools available to do that, even if they become exclusionary and unfair, they are highly incentivized at an individual level to use everything, every tool at their disposal. And individually that’s kind of rational, and in some ways sort of justifiable because of this fear of falling, as [author and activist] Barbara Ehrenreich phrases it.

Fear of falling is a really great phrase. The worse inequality gets, the greater the incentives among upper-middle class households to prevent downward mobility and protect their position. The more successfully they do that, the worse inequality gets. I think one other thing that’s important as to why it happens is the more separate these households become, the more their reference point for what counts as rich or affluent changes. It gets distorted because they tend to use local reference points. And it’s much easier to convince yourself you’re not very rich, even if you are in the 95th percentile, if everyone who you know is in the 98th percentile.

This “I’m not rich” problem is getting worse because they are seeing people who are segregated by neighborhood, by institution, by occupation, by marriage, and essentially spending their time more and more with people like themselves or wealthier than themselves. And that actually increases the fear of failure because you don’t see yourself as the winner because you’re always looking up.

This creates real problems as a political way of thinking because it does encourage those who are maybe not quite in the top 1 percent, earning $400,000 or more, to say “I’m not rich. I’m not rich.” Everyone wants to tax the rich, and no one thinks they are rich. And that’s another side effect of economic inequality when it becomes physical, becomes corporal, is incorporated into our neighborhoods and our institutions—so incorporated that it has these huge effects of reference point bias and insulation from what’s really going on. This institutionalization of inequality in the various ways that I’ve talked about speaks to this class divide, and that most troubles me. To me, this speaks to the kind of infantilized debate about inequality, where it’s much easier to stop eating avocado toast than it is to talk about the fundamental problems of the wage distribution.

Jacobs: Part of the problem, too, is the connection between this “I’m not rich” effect and the provision of public services and public goods. Underlying your argument about the separation of classes is that society today doesn’t actually have a unified sense of public goods and have a floor for the quality of public goods in this country.

Reeves: One argument for public goods is it de-risks downward mobility, it lowers the stakes about your own position and the position of your children, and therefore somewhat blunts the incentives to do absolutely everything in your power to protect your position. You can’t get that desperate because the stakes are little bit lower. Therefore, people in the upper-middle class will pull back a bit, be persuaded that actually they need to give up a little bit, and it’s not the end of the world.

Still, for the top 20 percent of households, it does feel like a long way down. When people in the upper-income neighborhood I live in obsess about their kids getting into a good college, and I tend to say, “Relax already,” and they say, “No, it’s different now.” And what they say, it’s because the Chinese are coming, or robots, or whatever—they point to this much more competitive world. But actually I think it is different now, but in a different way. It’s different now because the stakes are higher—that actually failing to get a good start in the labor market will have kind of tougher consequences.

The other thing it speaks to, and you’ve written about this yourself, is the growing importance of human capital of various forms in terms of the labor market. It means you’ve got to do better earlier now. It doesn’t feel as if, well, if you don’t do so well now, then maybe you don’t do so well in college, but you can catch up later. I think the labor market can still do that, but my sense is that it doesn’t do it as effectively as it did before. Unless you hit the labor market with a decent running start in the labor market—and that means increasingly certain qualifications, credentials, human capital, and so on—it’s just tougher to succeed than it was before.

I am making it personal because I think inequality is more personal, that some people are willing to accept as a necessary first step toward saying, “Oh, well, in that case, maybe we do need to do more redistribution. Maybe things aren’t as fair. Maybe actually I could give up a bit more as a necessary first step towards doing that.”

Jacobs: You say in your book that you believe in meritocracy for adults but not for kids. Which is like halfway there, right, but like you still believe in meritocracy for adults?

Reeves: Well, I still basically believe in the market for adults. That invites some criticism from the left, too, because I think the other things being equal, a sort of reasonably freely functioning labor market tends to be relatively meritocratic. I think it has helped to overcome historic prejudices of various kinds, based on gender and race, though there’s still a long way to go. It’s like the alternative to democracy, it’s better than the alternatives.

The idea that social engineers can start deciding that person A is worth more than person B, I think, flies in the face of the evidence of human capital skills. The things that are rewarded in the market tend to be rewarded in the market. It doesn’t mean you can’t then do more to distribute market rewards, but I quite like that. What I don’t like is the fact that the preparation for the market is so uneven. Once the market starts to kick in, it does its thing. So, broadly, the reason why kids of the upper-middle class go on to do so well is not because, by and large, the labor market discriminates wildly in their favor. It does discriminate, but not wildly. It’s because they are chock-full of human capital and skills and credentials, soft skills, hard skills, you name it. They are pretty awesome in the labor market.

The problem is, the idea of meritocracy creeps into childhood. There is selection into our education institutions, even selection into our high schools. That leads to thinking that, well, the brighter kids should get the greater resources, they should get more opportunities. So, the idea of meritocracy kicks in quite early. And if anything, education should be antimeritocratic. If the goal is to equalize the contest, then we need to think about it completely differently and then have the contest.

The other criticism from the left is the top 1 percent. But if one looks at how much real income growth has gone to the 1 percent, and if one uses the share of growth and income accruing to the 1 percent to illustrate the point, then one can produce this amazing chart and say, “This is wrong.” But it’s not just that 1 percent. Some people say, “No, that’s ridiculous, it’s not the top 20 percent, it’s much more like 15 percent, maybe 10 percent.” I say, “Fine, okay, great, big deal.” I’ll take it. I would like to cut the upper-middle income distribution a little bit broader, but I’ll take 10 percent or 15 percent because at least that level is just the 1 percent.

Some people do genuinely still think it is just the top 1 percent who define inequality in the United States. They still have to deal with the fact that individuals and families are moving in and out of the 1 percent quite a lot, but they do still think that that’s the real fracture. There are two kinds of inequality here. There’s a kind of plutocratic inequality and a bourgeois inequality. I think both can be true. You can have the kind of pulling away, not just among the top 1 percent but also the top 0.1 percent. I think within the top 1 percent, there are many who get upset about the 0.1 percent. The 0.1 percent get upset at the 0.01 percent. Every time you add the zero, you just move the class wall a few notches up. The people who fly commercial versus the people who fly first class, and the people who fly on private jets versus the ones who have got their own planes. No matter how high you go, you can always kind of find a class fracture. I don’t think we can just do it on the basis of the top 1 percent.

But in my book, I also examine the danger of the classic “born on third-base thinking you’ve hit a triple” problem. I choose a few examples that get into problems such as legacy preferences in education or the way neighborhoods are zoned or how internships are secured. Because all of that looks like cheating to me. I’m trying to interrupt what I think is a complacent narrative that’s there on the conservative right, which is just, well, they are just amazing people and they are not doing anything wrong.

Jacobs: You talk a lot about legacy admissions, internships, occupational licensing, and exclusionary zoning. Say a little bit more about that and about why you highlighted those.

Reeves: Some of my suggestions about restructuring the financing of higher education, more access to health care, family planning, restructuring K–12, are all highly important and totally unoriginal. There is a vast literature on all of those. We know what need to do. The problem is that we can’t do it. And the reason we can’t do it is because the upper-middle class has convinced themselves that they don’t need to give anything up and that things are hunky-dory, basically. Or they have subcontracted it all out to more distant institutions. They don’t have to do anything personally. I’m trying to interrupt that narrative.

Take the most trivial problem—legacy preferences—and there’s a trivial objection to that, which is made all the time. People say, oh, it won’t make any difference. Great, let’s do it then. So, let’s do that and move on. If it really won’t make any difference, then why are you so worried about it? Why is everyone so troubled about it if it won’t make any difference?

I think the conversation about inequality has to be uncomfortable, and legacy preference is one example of that. It’s outrageous, it’s racist, it’s outdated, it’s a national embarrassment. So you might say, well, if you win that, so what? I would say, if I can’t convince the top of the upper-middle class, these affluent, well-educated liberal Americans that it’s unfair to have a hereditary principle operating in college admissions, then I think the chance of radically transforming the financing of higher education basically is zero.

Jacobs: I’m going to ask one more question. I think the relationship between inequality and mobility is at the heart of what you are getting at. But I think in the American story, race and class are fundamentally interwoven. So, I’m curious how you reflect on that, why you spent so little time on it in the book, whether that was an intentional choice.

Reeves: One of the reasons why that is not a big part of this book is because I am focused on the upper-middle class, the top 20 percent, who remain predominantly white, and are actually whiter than the general population today than they were a few years ago. However, I do think, and I wish now in retrospect that I had said more about the tools that are used to perpetuate class inequality—tools that are racist in origin and remain racist in practice, even if not legally sanctioned.

So, that’s why I’m doing more work now on exclusionary zoning. If you live in a relatively affluent neighborhood, then you don’t have to do that much to change the zoning rules. The status quo favors you anyway. It’s much harder to change things than it is just keep things as they are. And one of the reasons things are the way they are is because of the legacy of racist zoning laws and redlining and so on, which is now being sort of repurposed, I think, to perpetuate class, which again still has racist consequences, even if it is not on its face racist.

I now think there is more to the interaction between the two than I thought. The hardest question, and I think we should stop on the hardest question, is from Hispanic or African American upper-middle class families who ask me, “Do you think that if I am black or Hispanic and I have made it to the upper-middle class, I shouldn’t do everything to help my kids remain there?” That’s one of the hardest questions I’ve had to answer. Because the honest answer is, well, no, I don’t think it is the same. There is a different salience there, and there is a much greater risk of downward mobility for black kids anyway.

Jacobs: We could keep on talking until tomorrow, but you’re right to end on the hardest question.

Reeves: All great questions. Thank you.

Reinvent: Determining Bargaining Power in the Platform Economy

Reinvent: Determining Bargaining Power in the Platform Economy: Our political system has been hacked by time, circumstance, chaos, and disaster…

…The failings of the electoral college, the fact that small states hacked the constitution in 1787, so we now have a world in which the minority in the Senate represents 175 million people, while the majority represents 145 million people, and the gerrymandering after the 2010 census are primary examples of this dysfunction.

Fixes for the economy?:

  • A 4 percent inflation target from the Federal Reserve, * Incentivizing businesses to invest in workers,
  • Reinvigorating the idea that technology should be used to augment workers, not replace them.

The possibilities for positive human flourishing from the platform economy are immense, provided the platforms actually work. Uber’s investors are currently paying 40 percent of Uber’s costs. What happens when these investors start wanting their money back? The platform economy moves bargaining power away from the service providers and from the customers, and into the hands of the platforms. This is a problem for both consumers and independent workers. What bargaining power workers will have will be correlated to the time and resources devoted to training them: when you walk, you disrupt a general production value chain, and it is expensive to figure out how to replace you, even if there’s someone else who certainly could do the job just as well. But if it is not very expensive, you have little power.

Nevertheless, here in California it is hard not to be a techno-optimist—especially if you are an curious infovore…says….”

Should-Read: Peter Leyden: California is the Future of American Politics

Should-Read: Peter Leyden: California is the Future-of American Politics: “The 21st-century hit California early, and the innovative state adapted quickly…

…and has pioneered a promising new way forward in many fields-including politics. The same forces-from demographics to technology adoption- re now hitting the rest of America in roughly a 15 year time delay. So what happened politically in California about 15 years ago is paralyzing America right now, and what’s happening politically now in California will hit the rest of America over the next 15 years. The once politically Red, now deep Blue state is inventing a progressive political playbook that will soon come to all America and even other parts of the world. That’s because California is in the early stages of inventing what will eventually be understood as a new digital, sustainable civilization for the 21st century…