Must-Read: Josh Barro: Trump, GOP tax plan is looming political disaster

Must-Read: Josh Barro: Trump, GOP tax plan is looming political disaster: “President Donald Trump tweeted Wednesday morning, hours before the announcement of the latest Republican tax proposal, that… http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-gop-tax-plan-political-disaster-2017-9

…”virtually no President has accomplished what we have accomplished in the first 9 months.” This is probably a good time to reflect on George W. Bush. While Trump likes to talk about “massive tax cuts,” Bush actually signed one less than five months into his term in office. Bush’s proposal was popular and attracted substantial Democratic support. And much of it is still the law today. Bush understood the politics of tax cuts in a way that Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan do not — which is why Ryan and Trump have produced a tax plan that is a political time bomb.

Tax cuts are more popular if they don’t increase taxes on people
A key talking point the Bush administration used repeatedly to sell their tax plan was that it would “reduce taxes on everyone who pays income taxes.” This statement was right there in the first paragraph of Treasury Department’s announcement of the tax proposal — which, I would note, was released in February of Bush’s first year in office, not September. Most importantly, the statement was true…. The proposal was explicitly designed to have extensive benefits for middle-income families, so he could go around the country and accurately say it offered a tax cut for everyone who paid income taxes and that nobody’s income taxes would go up.

Trump is about to propose to raise taxes on a lot of middle-income people to cut taxes for the rich. Because a lot of details of the Republican tax plan have yet to be filled in, we can’t say yet who would pay what…. But… we can identify a group of taxpayers likely to face tax increases from this proposal: people with moderate to upper-moderate incomes who take itemized deductions, like those for mortgage interest and state and local taxes paid…. While these taxpayers would lose key tax benefits, rich taxpayers would come out ahead….

“A tax cut for everyone who pays income taxes” was popular. Republicans won’t be able to say that this time. “A tax increase for many ordinary families to pay for a tax cut for the rich” is what Democrats will say. They’ll be right. And it will make this plan impossible to pass.