Must- and Should-Reads: May 30, 2017
- Charles Evans: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead: “These policies… produced results. Unemployment began to fall… https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/speeches/2017/05-25-lessons-learned-and-challenges-ahead-bank-of-japan
- Samuel Osborne: Angela Merkel says Germany can no longer rely on Donald Trump’s America: “‘We Europeans must really take our destiny into our own hands’… http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-donald-trump-germany-us-no-longer-rely-european-union-climate-change-g7-a7760486.html
- Gavyn Davies: The Fed’s Lowflation Dilemma: “The [last] two months together have left core CPI inflation 0.4 percentage points lower than expected… https://www.ft.com/content/b165f756-e4bf-3a70-880f-74474f6538fa
- Chad Stone: Donald Trump’s Indefensible Economic Growth Forecasts: “The 1.1 percentage point gap between the Trump annual growth forecast over the next decade and CBO’s is the largest on record and much larger than any since the Reagan-Bush era… https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/articles/2017-05-26/donald-trumps-indefensible-economic-growth-forecasts
Interesting Reads:
- Douglas O. Staiger, James H. Stock, and Mark W. Watson (1997): How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?: “Our main finding is that the natural rate is measured quite imprecisely. For example, we find that a typical estimate of the NAIRU in 1990 is 6.2%, with a 95% confidence interval for the NAIRU in 1990 being 5.1% to 7.7% (this is the “Gaussian” confidence interval for the quarterly specification with a con- stant NAIRU, reported in section 5.2)…” http://www.nber.org/chapters/c8885.pdf
- Gavyn Davies: The Fed’s lowflation dilemma: “there is now a fly in the Fed’s ointment. The last two monthly releases for consumer price inflation have been much weaker than anyone expected…” https://www.ft.com/content/b165f756-e4bf-3a70-880f-74474f6538fa
- Abbe Gluck: How the G.O.P. Sabotaged Obamacare: “Obamacare is not ‘collapsing under its own weight’…. The Republican Party should be held accountable not only for any potential replacement of the law, but also for having tried to starve it to death… https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/25/opinion/republicans-obamacare-aca.html
- Why Is the FOMC So Certain the U.S. Is “Essentially at Full Employment”? http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/05/why-is-the-fomc-so-certain-the-us-is-essentially-at-full-employment.html
- DeLong: The Future of Work: Automation and Labor: Inclusive AI: Technology and Policy for a Diverse Human Future http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/05/delong-the-future-of-work-automation-and-labor-inclusive-ai-technology-and-policy-for-a-diverse-human-future-1.html
- Where US Manufacturing Jobs Really Went: No Longer So Fresh at Project Syndicate http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/05/where-us-manufacturing-jobs-really-went-no-longer-so-fresh-at-project-syndicate.html