Should-Read: Kevin Drum: The Mystery of the Tight Labor Market

Should-Read: Kevin Drum asks the important question today:

Job Openings Total Nonfarm FRED St Louis Fed Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees Total Private FRED St Louis Fed

Kevin Drum: The Mystery of the Tight Labor Market: “Nearly all the data points to a tight labor market with the exception of the single most important bit of data: wages… http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/08/the-mystery-of-the-tight-labor-market/

…Rising wages are the clearest sign of a tight labor market, but we’re not seeing them. Not at the working and middle-class level, anyway. What’s going on?

Measuring potential GDP in the United States, and the case for emphasizing demand in monetary policy

A motorist puts fuel in his car’s gas tank at a service station in Springfield, Illinois, June 2013.

Just how concerning is the tepid growth of gross domestic product, or GDP, since the Great Recession? The growth we have seen may seem less concerning in the short run because many estimates of potential GDP—the estimate of economic output when all resources are being fully utilized—have declined, making the gap between reality and the possible seem smaller. Yet it’s not entirely clear that actual GDP growth is all that close to potential GDP growth. Policymakers may have more room to stimulate the economy, and such a move today might have long-term payoffs as well.

That’s the upshot of a recent study that casts some doubts about the decline in estimates of potential GDP in recent years. Research by economists Olivier Coibion at the University of Texas at Austin and Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Mauricio Ulate at the University of California, Berkeley, looks at the construction of different measures of potential GDP and finds that the estimates often used are not necessarily good measures of the actual productive capacity of the economy. The reason, they say, is that the estimates are overly influenced by short-term demand-side fluctuations in GDP.

A good, unbiased estimate of potential GDP would only be affected by shocks to the supply side of the economy, such as a change in the supply of oil or a shift in tax policy, but not by temporary shocks to demand, such as changes to monetary policy or government spending. What the three authors find is that estimates of potential GDP are indeed influenced by demand shocks such as contractionary monetary policy, which they shouldn’t be. They propose using another measure to estimate potential GDP—one that tries to remove from potential-GDP calculations any temporary demand shocks. Their resulting measure of potential GDP shows that GDP as of 2016 was 10 percentage points below its potential.

This “output gap” calculated by the three economists, notes City University of New York economist J.W. Mason, doesn’t look that different from an analysis that simply extrapolates potential GDP today from the 2008 estimates of potential GDP. A U.S. economy that is 10 percentage points below its potential should be an immediate and pressing concern for short-term, demand-side policy. If these estimates are correct, then monetary and fiscal policy can do more to boost GDP growth right now.

At the same time, this potentially significant amount of slack in the economy may also have implications for the long-term potential of GDP. Several economists and writers, including J.W. Mason, Ryan Avent, and Karl Smith, argue that the short-run condition of the economy can influence long-run potential. Strong GDP growth in the short run can boost investment growth and productivity, while tight labor markets raise wages and spur companies to invest in productivity-enhancing efforts.

In other words, the case for quickly and assuredly closing the output gap today means that the U.S. economy and society may be a richer place in the future. That means policymakers need to seriously consider moving monetary and fiscal policy in a direction where the bias is toward erring on the side of encouraging too much demand rather than too little of it. Current policymakers seem to be erring in the opposite direction. The potential consequence of such a decision may not be just a poorer United States today but also fewer economic possibilities for our children and grandchildren.

Should-Read: Duncan Black: Little Lessons

Should-Read: Duncan Black: Little Lessons: “I like to think I am wiser than I once was (about some things, at least)… http://www.eschatonblog.com/2017/08/little-lessons.html

…and sometimes talking about how you were made a bit less stupid is embarrassing because you have to admit that you were, well, stupid.

One such life lesson, back when I was, perhaps, a bit of a Slatebro, was a piece by someone talking about the lack of people of color in television shows. The piece was about the economic argument-basically, white people are the majority, white people want to see themselves on teevee, you have to cast popular actors who are white and, well, it’s just about the ratings and the money so whatchagonnado.

The point this writer made (was 20 years ago or so, I have no idea who) was that it’s one thing to argue that the main casts of Friends or Suddenly Susan have to be all white. But even if we accept this is true (it probably isn’t, but that’s the argument), how the hell can you have shows based in New York and San Francisco in which even the extras are almost all white? Are people really going to turn the channel because there’s an Asian-American sitting in the background at a secretary’s desk?

The argument that you gotta cast white people to make money in teevee and movies probably isn’t true. Get Out and Hidden Figures both made shitloads of money last year, and not even because of their low budgets (especially for Get Out). But even if it was/is, how are people of color so often not even included in the background?

Weekend Reading: James M. Buchanan (1970): The “Social” Efficiency of Education

De Maistre the executioner

You have to be able to hold in your mind two things about economist James M. Buchanan:

  1. He was a total loon:
    • a strong believer in the de Maistrean trinity of Patriarchy, Orthodoxy, Autocracy as necessary for society—essential Noble Lies.
    • a man who in 1970 wanted to shut down America’s universities as teachers of evil, and regretted the failure of nerve that made that impossible.
    • a man who saw Martin Luther King Jr. as a teacher of evil—whose response to the Civil Rights movement and its peaceful civil disobedience campaign was not “to make us love our country, our country must be lovely” but rather” but how dare he claim that an African American be “openly encouraged to use his own conscience”—rather than shutting up and accepting his subservient Jim Crow position.
  2. A man who saw things that other economists did not and would not have without him: The Calculus of Consent http://amzn.to/2v9jQQk is a great book. James Buchanan was—as, IIRC, only Jim Poterba and I were willing to say at the post-announcement MIT economics faculty lunch in 1986—a defensible choice for the Nobel Prize in economic science.

If you cannot hold both those ideas in your mind at once, you do not understand James M. Buchanan:


James M. Buchanan (1970: THE “SOCIAL” EFFICIENCY OF EDUCATION: Il Politico 35:4 (December), pp. 653-662 http://www.jstor.org/stable/43207303: This paper was presented at the General Meeting of the Mt Pelerin Society in Munich in September 1970: “In this paper, I shall examine the effects of modern education…

…on the socio-political-economic philosophy of university university students in the United States and the impact of this philosophy on social policy.

I shall examine the following propositions:

  1. For the first time, “education” is now effective. Students are acting out the ideas that they have absorbed in their academic experience.
  2. This effectiveness has only recently emerged because of:
    • the transformation of traditional conservative institutions-notably the family, the church, and the law.
    • economic affluence that has produced the relatively new “parasitic option” out of the more general “samaritan’s dilemma”.

I should emphasize that these are propositions to be examined and discussed. They provide one possible interpretation of what we see around us in American higher education in 1970. Alternative interpretations are possible, and these lead to quite different implications. By discussing the propositions here, I argue only that they seem sufficiently plausible to warrant my concentration in this paper, nothing more.

Education is Effective: My central hypothesis is that students in American colleges and universities are demonstrating that they have indeed paid some attention to what their instructors have been saying to them. They are acting out, in word and deed, what they have been taught in classrooms from elementary schools through the university postgraduate schools, what they have seen on their television screens, what they have read in their newspapers, from the underground rags through
the New York Times.

This effectiveness of education is new to our time. But I do not suggest that it results from any sudden or dramatic change in educational inputs. My subsidiary hypothesis explaining the change is quite different. The educational inputs have, of course, changed, but the changes have surely been gradual over the last forty years. The observed output has been rather suddenly transformed because only in the 1960’s did the inputs come to have much influence on outputs. The production function shifted. In the 1960’s, and for the first time, the socio-political inputs into the educational process began to be “efficient”. Until this decade, the effects were relatively unobservable. What we are now getting by contrast is a highly visible output that seems directly to be related to inputs. The reason for this change lies in the transformation of countervailing influences.

An implication of my central hypothesis is that the educational process has never provided an effective means through which the traditional socio-political values of American (read Western) institutions have been transmitted. Hence, we have not witnessed some implicit conspiratorial take over of a once-near-ideal educational structure by those bent on undermining the traditional system. At best here, we have experienced some shifting in the input mix toward the inclusion of more anti-market, _dirigiste _elements, which have been, however, long in the dominant position. The values of the system stood the shocks of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in spite of the educational structure because the countervailing influences were serving an effective social role. These influences may be broadly summarized in three institutions-the family, the church, and the law.

Institutions of Social Order: I do not suggest that these institutions exerted their primary influence in some positive sense. They embodied some explicit indoctrination, of course, some teaching of the value standards of the culture, some transmission of an appreciation for the structure of social rules. I suggest, however, that these institutions were more important in a negative way. As they operated, at least until the mid-dle of this century, the functional role of these institutions was one of preserving and enforcing the rules of civil order. They were essentially conservative in function; they acted not so much to instill positive support for these rules as to forestall and to prevent overt departures from these rules. That is to say, these institutions served to contain potentially disruptive criticisms of the established order. Perhaps more accurately, we may say that the criticisms of society were damped by these essentially conservative institutions.

Some examples may be useful here because the historical role imputed to these institutions is an important element of my hypothesis about educational process. The family did not change the value system of the six -year old child so as to make him really not want to take candy from the baby. Family control was established in the
quite different sense of informing the six-year old that, should he take the candy from the baby, he would be spanked. Order within the family structure was preserved by the threat of sanctions. Similarly, the church did not fulfill its socially functional role by effectively modifying man’s inherent proclivity to sin. Despite its teaching of the ethic of Christian love, the church’s primary behavioral influence stemmed from its instillation of fear of divine retribution. The fear of hellfire rather than the joy of love was instrumental in guaranteeing tolerable behavioral standards among ordinary men.

More importantly perhaps than either of these institutions, the family and the church, was the institution which we may broadly call “the law”. Historically, law served the socially efficient role summarized in the term “enforcing the rules”. Individuals were led to behave in accordance with established rules because they were led to believe that overt departures from these rules would be subject to prosecution. Men refrained from stealing because they fea-ed the consequences-arrest, conviction, prison terms. This may have been accompanied by relatively little weight on the ethic of obedience.

In all three institutions, the fear of punishment, once instilled, led to habitual patterns of behavior which embodied adherence to established rules. Once such habits were formed, the immediate and explicit threat of retribution need not have been omnipresent.

Education in Institutional Order: Within a social order in which the family, the church, and the law fulfill the roles outlined above, the educational process can quite different from that in a social structure where these institutions fail. In a regime of institutional order, the educational experience can best be organized and supported in an atmosphere of of critical inquiry. Indeed, the whole notion of scholarship stems from this conception of education’s functional role in a social order. He is the institutional location for the free spirits, for the intellect gadflys, for the heretics of all ages. The advantages of unrestricted freedom to follow “truth where it may lead” were secured precisely because the potential excesses were contained, so to speak, in the institutional cocoon that was the university. The community of schoglars went about their essential business of discussing truth, arguin and properly so, about angels on pins, with little or no explicit concern for the world about them, and, more importantly, arguing as if relevance did not matter. The “ivory tower”, the “walls of ivy”, the “groves of academe”-these are not idle metaphors. They accurately describe what the university was supposed to be in its ideal-type image as it formed a part in an ordered society.

In this protected, cloistered educational process, students could, and did, examine, adopt, and espouse almost all conceivable heresies-right, left, up, down, and center, reformist, revolutionary, reactionary. Student energies were dissipated, student concern was expressed-but always within the confines of the academic groves. In these colonies, as it were, students were rarely instilled with the existing value standards of the external world, including the socio- economic. Most students passed through their university-college years as radical reformers if not latent revolutionaries, and we all recall the saying that everyone is a socialist at twenty.

It is important to recognize this in any consideration of the role that the teaching of economics and social science has played. The students’ image of the entrepreneur, or, more broadly, the students’ conception of the workings of the market structure, has rarely been either the sophisticated understanding of the professionally-trained market economist or the more pragmatic appreciation of the man of affairs. The spontaneous coordination of the market process, the Mandeville-Smith vision of the invisible hand-these are not ideas that carry with them instant and romantic appeal. They stir the intellect rather than the emotions, and rare indeed has been the stu-dent whose passions rise at the clopping of hooves of Böhm-Bawerk’s horses at the trading fair. Quite by contrast, the passion for the market as a social institution can perhaps only emerge from the quiet study of one whose life resembles that of a Scotsman-cum-philosopher. The passions of the students are much more likely to be stirred by instant identification of evil men, by the shining ray of revealed truth, by the gospel of social salvation.

If the students’ image of the businessman, the students’ conception of market order, has been the set of confusions that I have described, how can we explain, historically, the perseverance of this institution through the centuries in the Western World? If some minimal transmission of the value structure has not been accomplished by the educational process, how can we explain the continuing support for traditional socio-economic-political institutions?

Survival Potential of Market Institutions: I should answer these questions in two ways. I should argue, first, that there is tremendous survival potential in free market institutions. Indeed, it may be argued that some sort of market arrangements will more or less naturally emerge out of almost any socio- political environment. So long as men are men, which to economists means so long as they are preference functions, other men will find it to their personal advantage to satisfy the private wants of potential buyers. This is the very meaning of the term “laissez-faire”. If left alone, markets will emerge, and even sometimes in spite of a complex maze of regulations and restrictions. The results may not, of course, attain even tolerable efficiency since trades can be organized that will exaggerate rather than reduce initial distortions introduced by arbitrary interferences. Nonetheless, markets will be formed within whatever institutional structure that exists. If we accept the survival hypothesis, it is easy to see how market institution can remain and even prosper in a cultural-intellectual environment or climate that is alien to a market-oriented philosophy. The students, young and old alike, the scholars and intelligentsia, may not understand the market order, and they may use it as the butt some of their most vitriolic criticism. They may rail at its neglect of human values, its elevation of property rights about human rights, at its dismal view of human nature. At the same time, however, practical men may be getting and spending, providing goods and services in increasing abundance not only for themselves and other ordinary mortals, but for the otherwordly intelligentsia as well.

Perhaps I exaggerate here. Every age and every country has its Mises, its Hayek, its Frank Knight, its Milton Friedman. And there probably is some minimal level below which the numbers of scholars who understand and espouse a market philosophy cannot fall if the institutional structure itself is to be preserved. This level may itself vary in some direct relationship to the power of governments to intervene. I do not think, however, that my exaggeration seriously distorts the description of affairs that may have characterized the Western World for almost a century. In essence, I should argue that the market has survived in spite of the false conceptions of the great mass of intellectuals.

This is not to denigrate the contributions of the relatively few scholars and social philosophers, the few teachers at all levels, when I say that it has been the survival characteristics of the free institutions rather than their powerful messages that have been effective. The permanent and continuing messages of the antimarket intellectuals failed, until quite recently, because of the containment of these messages within the ivory towers, not because of the overriding weight of the counterarguments offered by the adversary minority. Neither the majority of pundits who have traditionally been grossly ignorant in their denunciations of the “blind forces of the market” nor the small minority of the market’s academic-intellectual defenders have exerted much influence on the historical development of social institutions. In this particular respect, Keynes was, I think, wrong. The
academic scribblers exerted far less influence in undermining the free society than their numbers might have allowed us to predict. I hypothesize here that the reason for this relative absence of influence lies in the containment exercised by the traditional conservative institutions referred to above-the family, the church, and the law.

The Social Value of Ineffective Education: As I have indicated earlier, these institutions may have done little or nothing to convert persons into ideological supporters of traditional and existing social values. They did, however, force persons to conform to the external embodiments of those values. The individual accepted the fact that he must obey the rules or suffer the consequences of his disobedience. He was not allowed the romantic option of disobedience without sanction. The alternatives that he confronted were confined to adherence to those rules that existed or the suffering of punishment for violation. In other words, the individual was forced to choose between joining the system, the “establishment”, or becoming an outcast who could expect to be treated as such. He was not permitted the soft option offered in a parasitic role, the prospect of opting out of the system while continuing to survive on the system’s charity.

Within this structure of society, it should be emphasized that the educational process served a useful social function. It allowed for, and encouraged, open criticism of and overt dissent to prevailing value standards and existing institutions. The university or college provided the proper place to allow the heretic free reign. Heretical challenges from the academe stirred responsiveness in the institutional order, and a gradual transformation of both values and institutions took place. Reform was accomplished by allowing the heretic to advance revolutionary notions, well contained within the academe, which might then be pragmatically translated into practical policy improvements.

In any directly observable sense, this education was almost totally infective. In a longer perspective, however, the short-run ineffectiveness of education was precisely its social strength. The process was useful because students were not allowed directly to impose the ill-informed and romantic nonsense learned from the academe in the great world beyond. In this context, it did not really matter that the prevailing socio-political philosophy of the predominant majority of academicians ran counter to the institutions of the social order.

The Failure of the Institutions of Order: There is general agreement that the conservative institutions noted-the family, the church, and the law-no longer serve the historical role outlined above. The child in the permissive family secures no sense of obedience to authority, no fear of punishment for disobedience. His church leaders have taken all fear of divine retribution off his shoulders, and the fires of hell are not promised as the consequences of his transgressions. More seriously than either of these, the law itself has been subverted into an agency for positive reform, for changing existing rules as opposed to its role in enforcing these rules that do exist. The individual is openly encouraged to use his own conscience in determining whether or not he should obey a particular law, and often with little or no threat of punishment if he disobeys.

All of these institutions of negative reinforcement for orderly behavior have been, at best, seriously eroded. This suggests clearly that the social need for positive reinforcement is correspondingly increased. If the six-year old fears no spanking for taking the baby’s candy, he must be taught the ethical value of respecting others* property. If the potential arsonist fears neither hell’s fire nor the strong arm of the law, he must be positively indoctrinated with the value of exercising mutual respect for the rights of other men. The possible role of education in this positive reinforcement process seems obvious. The glint in the eye of the professional educator as he mouths the traditional cliches about the “liberal arts” can
be seen a mile away. He sees that education may only now come into its own as a major formative influence.

But this is precisely what has come to happen, and most of us do not at all like at all what we are seeing as a result. We see students now being allowed to act out what we previously allowed only as academic fantasies. Unrestrained and with little or no sense of mutual respect and tolerance, they flaunt ordinary rules of conduct; they disrupt others in the pursuit of their affairs ; they have almost destroyed the basic order that once prevailed on campuses everywhere.

All of this would be disturbing enough if the students’ excesses were confined within the ivy walls. But having learned none of
the simple virtues in either family, church, or school, why should we expect the child-men to behave differently in the great society beyond the groves? The animals are in the streets, literally, and if college buildings burn so do banks, as we are finding this year in America.

The Parasitic Option: If we do not like what we see and if we accept my hypothesis about the reasons, there exists a simple solution. If education is now being effective for the first time and the results are not quite what we might have expected, the simple solution is one of cutting off the external sources of support. If society does not think that it is getting its money’s worth from the educational processes as they exist, if the admitted advantages of free inquiry are more than outweighed by the negative effects of direct political action by militant groups centering their headquarters on the nation’s campuses, why not simply close down the universities?

This seems a straightforward question, but closer examination of modern attitudes reveals that, despite all of his misgivings about what he sees, neither the ordinary citizen nor his political representative is willing to take such steps toward corrective solutions. Unwilling to cut off public and private financial sources, he acquiesces in the continuing deterioration that he sees all about him. Why is the ordinary citizen so reluctant to act here? This reluctance is but one manifestation of the most pervasive quality of our age, one that also explains the breakdown of the inst tutions of order previously discussed. Economic affluence has placed modern man in what I call the “samaritan’s dilemma”. He is simply unwilling to force those who refuse to join the system to exist wholly outside the system. He is quite willing to allow for the existence of parasites, those who feed upon him without contributing to his well being. This is essentially what the student class has already become, and it is also what the postgraduate class may become during the 1970’s.

Apparently unwilling to enforce the rules of the existing system on the student classes, and apparently unwilling to confine the behavioral excesses to the campuses, modern man finds himself being rapidly forced to allow the parasites entry directly into the political-decision process. The spring of 1970 marked the possible beginnings of an important shift in American policy, a shift that I view with much gloom. Students were successful in university after university in politicizing the academe, and, beyond this, they were successful in making their voices heard by political leaders. With little regard for facts, and spurred by the romantic cliches of the moment, the masses formed, with little or no resistance.

It is in this perspective that we must come back to our assignment. The student’s image of the entrepreneur, his conception of market order, did not really matter very much so long as his criticism was left in the ivy walls and the facts of life forced him to join the system and abide by its existing rules once his college-university years were passed. As most of us realize from personal experience, his radical and romantic fantasies soon faded away a« he matured, intellectually and psychologically, becoming gradually aware of the values of the institutions that surrounded him. All of this may be changing, and very rapidly, if the student and poststudent of the 1970’s is allowed to obtrude his own naive, uniformed, and romantic fancies directly into the political process, while himself remaining a parasite feeding on the rest of society. For the first time, the student’s failure to understand and to appreciate the workings of the market order, for the first time his failure to understand and to appreciate the crucial role played in such an order by the entrepreneur, by the profit and loss, reward-punishment structure of the market, may become critical influences on the formation of social policy. For the first time in the United States, the quasi-comic mout- hings of neo- Marxist slogans may come to be taken seriously by practicing politicians, as seems to be the case in 1970.

There is no way that we can get the educational house in order within the medium-term future. If my rather pessimistic picture contains elements of descriptive reality (and I hope that it does not), Western society’s main task is to shift itself, by brute resolution, out of the samaritan’s dilemma, to close off the parasitic option now available to the student and post-students who refuses to conform to ordinary rules of conduct. I wish that I could think modern man capable of even this modest step toward some restoration of sanity.

Must-Read: C. Fred Bergsten and Monica de Bolle, eds.: A Path Forward for NAFTA

Must-Read: Bergsten and de Bolle and company try, politely, to get the attention of the Trumpers and their allies with respect to not breaking the North American economy. I don’t think it’s effective to be polite here:

  • Half of the Trumpers’ plan for revising NAFTA is to politely beg Canada and Mexico to agree to the provision of the TPP that Trump trashed on his first day in office.
  • The other half of the Trumpers’ plan for revising NAFTA is an incoherent desire to achieve month-by-month bilateral trade balance with every other country: “The United States has a trade deficit with Mexico of $60 billion. And the United States will not have those deficits anymore. We do not mind a small deficit, and we do not mind a little time to get there. But we cannot do this and we cannot sustain like this. We will not be the United States anymore. And we cannot listen to this. I was voted on the basis that we are losing so much money to Mexico in terms of jobs, factories, and plants moving to Mexico. We cannot do this anymore and I have to tell you it is not sustainable…. What I want is fair tariffs at the border, and I want to be fair because I want a great relationship with Mexico…” And that is Trump at his most well-briefed and most coherent.
  • All of the Trumpers’ plan for revising NAFTA is to, somehow, declare victory—that Trump has gotten a “good deal”—no matter what actually happens

C. Fred Bergsten and Monica de Bolle, eds.: A Path Forward for NAFTA: “The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) ranks at the top of anyone’s list of the most controversial trade deals of all time… https://piie.com/system/files/documents/piieb17-2.pdf

…NAFTA reduced tariff barriers to zero for the United States, Mexico, and Canada and led to a tripling of trade among these three countries over the last 23 years (figure 1). The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) has abundantly detailed the many gains and acknowledged costs of NAFTA in numerous publications (see, e.g., Hufbauer and Schott 2005; Hufbauer, Cimino-Isaacs, and Moran 2014). Now that President Donald Trump has launched a renegotiation of NAFTA—having at least for the moment abandoned his 2016 campaign pledge to cancel the pact outright after tentatively deciding to do so on April 22—the fundamental question is: Can such a renegotiation produce a positive result?

A broad range of experts who have contributed to this PIIE Briefing say “yes.” The new negotiations can succeed only if they focus on how the agreement can be updated and upgraded, however. The overarching goal of negotiators from the three participating countries must be to boost the competitiveness of North America as a whole, liberalizing and reforming commercial relations between the three partner countries and responding to the many changes in the world economy since NAFTA went into effect in 1994. These changes include the digital transformation of commerce, which has enabled sophisticated new production methods employing elaborate supply chains, transforming North America into a trinational manufacturing and services hub. But concerns about labor, the environment, climate change and energy resources, and currency issues have become more acute than they were at the time NAFTA started. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was thus correct when he said that NAFTA “didn’t really address our economy or theirs [Mexico and Canada] in the way they are today.”

Ultimately, however, NAFTA can be modernized only if President Trump’s zero-sum “America First” agenda is replaced by one that seeks to benefit all three countries and improve their competitiveness in an increasingly competitive global economy….Obsessive concern about bilateral trade balances and narrow special interests in the United States, as opposed to broader national and regional interests, would not only deadlock the negotiations but also likely lead to inferior outcomes for all three countries, or even a breakdown in the talks and… abrogation…. And walking away from NAFTA altogether would be disastrous for consum-ers, producers, and retailers in the United States…

Should-Read: Paul Krugman: Structural Unemployment: Yes, It Was Humbug

Should-Read: Paul Krugman: Structural Unemployment: Yes, It Was Humbug: “Ancient history… but five years ago there was a remarkable Beltway consensus that high unemployment was structural… https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/08/04/structural-unemployment-yes-it-was-humbug/?_r=0

…mismatch between the skills workers had and the skills the economy needed. What made this consensus remarkable was that all the evidence pointed the other way: none of the telltale signs of a skill mismatch, like rising wages for some groups despite high unemployment, were in sight. Meanwhile, lots of other evidence–like the fact that unemployment was falling fastest in the same places and occupations where it rose most–pointed to a cyclical story, that is, that the economy was simply suffering from inadequate demand. Yet so strong was the groupthink that news analyses often presented the structural story as if it were the known truth, without even acknowledging the contrary case.

So here we are, with no obvious up-skilling of the work force, but with unemployment now below pre-crisis levels, with prime-age employment not too far below where it was, and still no wage pressure. People got mad when I called the structural story humbug, but humbug it was. Why does this matter now? Well, the people who were sure that it was structural are still out there, opining on economic policy. And while we all make mistakes, is there any sign that any of these people have so much as admitted getting this wrong, let along learned from the experience?

Must- and Should-Reads: August 6, 2017


Interesting Reads:

Must-Read: Gérard Roland and David Yang: Cultural change and intergenerational transmission: Some lessons from China’s Cultural Revolution

Must-Read: Gérard Roland and David Yang: Cultural change and intergenerational transmission: Some lessons from China’s Cultural Revolution: “The Cultural Revolution… the shutdown of the Chinese university system between 1966 and 1976… http://voxeu.org/article/cultural-change-and-intergenerational-transmission

…Among the first policies that were enacted immediately following the end of the Cultural Revolution was the reintroduction of the college entrance exam, Gaokao, in 1977 after a ten-year interruption…. We zoom in on this narrow window of cohorts who graduated from high school just before and just after the end of the Cultural Revolution, the exogenous loss of opportunity due to the suspension of higher education remains arguably the only difference between these neighbouring cohorts…. High school graduates born in 1957 and 1958 who missed out on college education are significantly less likely to believe that effort pays off relative to luck, even well into their sixties. In addition, they hold persistent grudges against the government for these lost opportunities, as they report significantly higher distrust of the government compared to later cohorts….

We also find that parents only transmitted part of their changed beliefs to their children. We find that while the ‘lost generation’ passed down the acquired larger mistrust towards the government to their children, their changed beliefs on the role of effort versus luck are transmitted to the next generation to a much lesser degree…. Whether given events and experiences lead to a persistent or a transitory change across generations has critical implications for the dynamic evolution of the corresponding beliefs and preferences. We still know very little…

Should-Read: Fatih Guvenen, Greg Kaplan, Jae Song, and Justin Weidner: Lifetime Incomes in the United States over Six Decades

Should-Read: Fatih Guvenen, Greg Kaplan, Jae Song, and Justin Weidner: Lifetime Incomes in the United States over Six Decades: “From the cohort that entered the labor market in 1967 to the cohort that entered in 1983… http://www.nber.org/papers/w23371

…median lifetime income of men declined by 10%–19%…. Accounting for rising employer-provided health and pension benefits partly mitigates these findings but does not alter the substantive conclusions. For women, median lifetime income increased by 22%–33% from the 1957 to the 1983 cohort, but these gains were relative to very low lifetime income for the earliest cohort. Much of the difference between newer and older cohorts is attributed to differences in income during the early years in the labor market…. Inequality in lifetime incomes has increased significantly within each gender group. However, the closing lifetime gender gap has kept overall lifetime inequality virtually flat…. Substantial changes in labor market outcomes for younger workers… [are] critical driver of trends in both the level and inequality of lifetime income over the past 50 years…

Weekend reading: “Watching the labor market flows go” edition

This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth published this week and the second is the work we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

Equitable Growth round-up

Liz Hipple summarizes some of the key points from a new report by antitrust expert James Kwoka on changes to merger enforcement policy. Relatedly, here are the key takeaways from Gene Kimmelman and Mark Cooper’s report on the results of increased concentration in the communications industry.

Monday was African American women’s Equal Pay Day, which represents the day that black women must work to in 2017 to make the same amount of money that men (of all races) did in 2016. Nisha Chikhale updates Equitable Growth’s interactive wage tool and shows the wide variation in wages across races and gender.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data on the health of the labor market in July this morning. Here are five key graphs using data from the report, chosen by Equitable Growth staff.

Links from around the web

The savings rate for U.S. households declined over the past two years as income growth was extremely weak. Matthew C. Klein wonders how long U.S. consumers can continue to reduce savings. [ft alphaville]

Have a theory of inflation? It’s likely doesn’t hold up when you look at Japanese data. Noah Smith argues that Japan is a graveyard for macroeconomic theories. [bloomberg view]

With business concentration and awareness of that increase on the rise, the word “monopoly” is back in the news. Stacy Mitchell looks at the rise and fall of the word “monopoly” when it comes to public discourse in the United States. [the atlantic]

Taking a look at data for the first half of 2017, Elise Gould finds broad-based wage growth occurring because of a tighter labor market and due to higher minimum wages at the state and local level boosting earnings. But there’s still work to be done with inequality so high. [epi]

The stark gender difference in how much household work men and women do is fairly well known. Jeanna Smialek highlights new research that shows this difference might be holding down productivity growth. [bloomberg]

Friday figure

Figure is from “Equitable Growth’s Jobs Day Graphs: July 2017 Report Edition