Night-Time Must Read: James Pethokoukis: Is the Temp Economy Permanent?

James Pethokoukis: Is the temp economy permanent?: “If the US job market were undergoing some sort of major, long-lasting transformation, how would we know?

Well, the data might start looking kind of weird. Maybe the labor force participation would collapse, or wages would stagnate, or job creation would shrivel. Or we might see something like a big rise in temporary workers…. So are we are headed to where Japan already is? A third of its workers are temps who are paid less, receive fewer benefits, and have less job security…. If this trend is longer-term, it argues for better education and training so workers can do the high-value things machines can’t. Government should also be careful of polices that raise hiring costs like mandating benefits or wage floors… should take a deep look at wage subsidies for lower-skilled workers…

Attempt to Start a Dialogue: Another Current of Thought I Really Do Not Understand: John Plender on Central Banks as “Market Riggers”

I truly do not understand how John Plender views the world, or, rather why he sees the world he does. Can anybody help me?

John Plender: Time running out for the market riggers: “Conventional wisdom has it that the long-term global decline in real interest rates…

…owes much to an increase in the demand for safe assets. Certainly it is true that the accumulation of official reserves by excess savers in the developing world has played an important role and with the eurozone breaking into current account surplus there is now a new excess saver on the block…. At the same time the increased real return required by equity investors since the dotcom boom and the great financial crisis has reinforced a portfolio shift towards bonds, resulting in further downward pressure on yields. Yet the more striking thing about today’s markets is surely the extraordinary demand for unsafe assets…. Junk bond yields are close to record lows. Securitisation is back in fashion…. There is a slide afoot in lending standards, with a reversion to such pre-2007 bad habits as payment-in-kind notes and “cov-lite” loans….

Mexico, admittedly with a good domestic economic story to tell, managed to sell a 100-year sterling bond last month on a coupon of 5.75 per cent. At the same time the yield on Spanish and Irish sovereign five-year bonds last week fell below comparable US Treasury paper. That is quite a tribute to the power of the central banks, which have rigged the market in spectacular fashion…

Continue reading “Attempt to Start a Dialogue: Another Current of Thought I Really Do Not Understand: John Plender on Central Banks as “Market Riggers””

In Which I Am Perturbed by Kenneth Rogoff’s Even-Handed Hippie- and Austerian-Punching: Early Thursday Focus on Wednesday

More and more these days, I find myself perturbed when I read Kenneth Rogoff. The models he uses are the models that he built and the models that seem to me to make the most sense. But I repeatedly find him making judgments about how the models apply to the real world that I cannot follow.

For today’s example…

Kenneth Rogoff: More Facts and Less Populism: “When the US Treasury recently added its voice to the chorus of critics of Germany’s chronic current-account surplus…

…it underscored the deep disagreement over what, if anything, should be done about it. The critics want Germany to increase its contribution to global demand by importing more and exporting less. The Germans view the maintenance of strong balance sheets as essential to their country’s stabilizing role in Europe…. The debate has too often been informed more by ideology than facts….

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Afternoon Must-Read: Gauti Eggertsson and Neil Mehrotra: A Model of Secular Stagnation

Mark Thoma sends us to Gauti Eggertsson and Neil Mehrotra: A Model of Secular Stagnation: “The Japanese malaise that has by now lasted two decades…

…and has many of the same symptoms as the U.S. Great Depression…. In Summers’ words, we may have found ourselves in a situation in which the natural rate of interest – the short-term real interest rate consistent with full employment – is permanently negative…. There has not, to the best of our knowledge, been any attempt to formally model this idea…. The goal of this paper is to fill this gap…. Successful policy actions include, among others, a permanent increase in inflation and a permanent increase in government spending…. Policies such as committing to keep nominal interest rates low or temporary government spending, however, are less powerful than in models with temporary slumps…

The “Leaky Bucket” Once Again; or, Reading Emiliano Huet-Vaughn on the Unexpected Benefit of Telling People What Their Coworkers Make: Wednesday Focus: April 9, 1944

In general, economists believe that more information is good. Information does not cost anything to disseminate: it wants to be free. Information may be useful. And, if you have sufficient strength of will, you can always throw information away if it is not useful. Therefore there is a very strong presumption that you need some very special reason to justify keeping information close.

By contrast, the conventional wisdom among American corporate human relations is that as far as information about relative pay levels is concerned the best strategy is to treat your workers like mushrooms: keep them in the dark and feed them bullshit. This is thought to greatly increase the bosses’ bargaining power, and the profit gains from increased targeting power outweigh the bosses’ share of efficiency losses from information that is not distributed. Rather than opening sneaky bucket redistributing wealth downward, this is a leaky anti-redistributional bucket, moving less wealth upward then it takes out of the lower pool.

Now comes Emiliano Huet-Vaughn to say that it looks like the anti-redistributional bucket is even leakier. In the new behavioral economics world in which you are no longer looked at weirdly by other economists–as if perhaps you should have been a sociologist–if you include things other than personal consumption of goods and services as arguments in the utility function, it looks as though the fact that people are engaged by and respond to friendly contests may have powerful implications. This is, I think, key to what we are doing here: The Okun-Samuelson “leaky bucket” we-must-trade-off-efficiency-and-equity-along-some-social-possibility-frontier-given-our-political-preferences-for-social-welfare was a way that the economist could preserve his her bipartisan credibility in the mid-20th century. To say that the market was most productive and “efficient” would please the American right. To say that the government could produce a more equitable distribution via policy would please the left. And the economist was the neutral technocratic arbiter, just giving the facts.

But it was always convenient rather than true. The evidence for it was rather thin. And the failure of the great American experiment in raising income inequality that we began under Reagan to deliver even faster-growing real GDP, let alone faster-growing economic welfare, should sober anyone still attached to the “leaky bucket”.

Emiliano Huet-Vaughn: The Unexpected Benefit of Telling People What Their Coworkers Make: “Each year, Equal Pay Day comes and goes on April 8 amid rising income inequality, low social mobility, and pay disparities…

I divided people into two groups. One group was given information about the earnings of others performing similar work at the same piece rate as them, and the other group was kept in the dark about their peers’ earnings…. People in the group shown their relative earnings position were more productive than those that weren’t given that information… 10 percent after they learned their relative positions. Why did pay disclosure increase productivity?… [It] may be that people care about their position relative to their coworkers… where they stand in their peer groups… an internalized sense of status…. These gains were made simply by giving workers information….

Chang-Tai Hsieh et al, (2014) estimated] that opening up professions to women and Americans of color accounted for between 15 to 20 percent of economic growth (in terms of aggregate output per worker) between 1960 and 2008.

Of course, my research is far from the final word…. Very good work by other economists has found results both consistent with and contrary to the finding of a positive productivity effect due to disclosure of relative standing information. Moreover, in my setting… relative earnings information… [was] also information about relative performance….

People are responsive to information about relative standing… policies intended to reduce inequities may also increase efficiency… policies [that] can promote both equity and growth.

Motivated Reasoning and the Launch of Ezra Klein’s Vox.Com

Kudos to Ezra Klein and company for the highly-successful launch of their http://vox.com. But no sooner does he launch than Ezra Klein worries about whether it might be a hopeless enterprise, and Paul Krugman comes to two conclusions: (1) That Ezra’s is not a hopeless enterprise. (2) That nevertheless his technocratic policy debate can only be carried out within the philosophical-liberal community: that conservatives either cannot or will not participate, and those of us who are not conservative should not try to get them to do so as that will be a fruitless task.

Me? I’m down with Byrhtwold here:

Hige sceal þe heardra,
heorte þe cenre,
mod sceal þe mare,
þe ure mægen lytlað…

It doesn’t matter whether our reasoning is inevitably motivated or not, or whether non-liberals cannot participate in a technocratic dialogue, we have to try as hard as we can to mark our beliefs to market and construct such a dialogue:

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Things to Read at Night on April 8, 2014

Must-Reads:

  1. Bryan Covert: Here’s Why We Know The Gender Wage Gap Really Does Exist: “Here’s why we know there is still an unfair difference between what women and men make: Women earn less when they get the same education. The first year out of college… women make less than men… even when factors such as schools, grades, majors, and others are taken into account…. Women earn less in virtually every job… category tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics…. Women earn less thanks to discrimination…. Not all of the gap is due to discrimination…. Francine Blau and Lawrence Kahn found that while experience, occupation, and industry explain much of the gap, there is still more than 40 percent of it that remains unexplained…. Women earn less when they balance children and careers…. Our country is also unique in making it difficult for both parents to remain in the workforce…. Paid leave and affordable, consistent child care help boost women’s wages. The choice to be a caretaker may not always be such a free choice…”

  2. Matthew Yglesias: The short guide to Capital in the 21st Century: “Can you give me Piketty’s argument in four bullet points? * The ratio of wealth to income is rising in all developed countries. * Absent extraordinary interventions, we should expect that trend to continue. * If it continues, the future will look like the 19th century, where economic elites have predominantly inherited their wealth rather than working for it. * The best solution would be a globally coordinated effort to tax wealth…. Does this have anything to do with Karl Marx’s Das Kapital? Quite a bit… his bottom line is that Marx was right to worry about capitalism. During the Cold War years it appeared that Marx was simply wrong to assert that market societies would be dominated by owners of capital. Wages for ordinary workers were high and rising. Economic elites were largely business executives or skilled tradespeople (lawyers and surgeons, say) rather than owners of enterprises. And iconic ‘capitalist’ figures were entrepreneurs who built businesses rather than heirs to old fortunes…. Piketty says that this was essentially a happy coincidence reflecting the unique circumstances of the post-war era…. Unless drastic measures are taken, the future belongs to people who simply own stuff they inherited from their parents…. Piketty’s vision of a class-ridden, neo-Victorian society dominated by the unearned wealth of a hereditary elite cuts sharply against both liberal notions of a just society andconservative ideas about what a dynamic market economy is supposed to look like…”

  3. Danny Vinik: Glenn Hubbard’s Critique of Obama’s Stimulus Makes No Sense: “Former Romney Adviser Blames Obama for Problems Republicans Created: Hubbard criticizes the Obama administration for focusing too much on ‘shovel-ready’ projects while not implementing a sustained infrastructure program. In fact, that’s the exact sort of thing that the administration has been pushing for, and Hubbard’s fellow Republicans have been blocking…. [Hubbard] admits that ‘activist demand policies by the federal government may make sense’… [and] blames the Obama administration for problems with fiscal policy that Republicans created…. As Mike Grunwald lays out in his book The New New Deal, the White House wanted a larger stimulus…. Obama has repeatedly called for more infrastructure spending—often in the form of an infrastructure bank—in the past few years. Republicans have blocked those proposals. While the administration has not offered a comprehensive tax reform proposal, Republicans ran as fast as they could away from Dave Camp’s plan…”

  4. Paul Krugman: Euphemistic At The IMF: “Ever since the financial crisis struck we’ve suffered grievously from the tyranny of respectable opinion. As I’ve often argued, the problem with our inadequate and often perverse response to mass unemployment isn’t that we lack a workable economic framework; basic IS-LMish macroeconomics has, in fact, provided quite good guidance. The problem, instead, has been that following economic logic has been deemed unserious…. Respectable people grab on to academic papers that present dubious nonstandard results — expansionary austerity! A debt cliff at 90 percent!–while radicals like me are the ones citing Econ 101. In all of this, the IMF has played a somewhat strange role. It is, institutionally, the very model of respectability…. Yet it has a sophisticated, fairly Keynesian research department–and management that actually listens to that department (as opposed to, say, the European Commission, whose attitude seems to be: ”If I want your opinion I’ll tell you what it is.”)… The result is a proliferation of euphemisms. There’s a fine example in the latest World Economic Outlook, which makes a strong case that “normal” real interest rates have fallen substantially over time, and not just because of the financial crisis. What does this imply for policy? Here we go: ‘With respect to monetary policy, a period of continued low real interest rates could mean that the neutral policy rate will be lower than it was in the 1990s or the early 2000s. It could also increase the probability that the nominal interest rate will hit the zero lower bound in the event of adverse shocks to demand with inflation targets of about 2 percent. This, in turn, could have implications for the appropriate monetary policy framework.’ What does that actually say? Well, my subtitled version says this: Raise the inflation target to 4 percent, dummies. But the IMF wouldn’t, and presumably can’t, say that outright. And I suspect that the people who need to hear that won’t at all get what the Fund is really saying. Secular stagnation, here we come…”

  5. Brian Buetler: WSJ Obamacare editorial supports ACA fixes, slams conservative critics: “We know that GOP leaders are suddenly, tepidly, willing to allow minor, bipartisan improvements to Obamacare to clear the House of Representatives. But for the party’s shift away from an obstinance-only strategy to evolve into something more substantial—something that really undermines the repeal fantasy—influential voices within the conservative tent are going to have to pressure hardliners…. The Wall Street Journal editors picked today to attack the GOP members who are furious about party leaders doing anything at all to facilitate implementation of the law: ‘[S]ome conservatives have become so politically disoriented by ObamaCare that preserving its mistakes is more important than helping Americans hurt by the law. The theory seems to be that “improving” ObamaCare will weaken the coalition for repeal and therefore the economic torture dials should be turned up to 11. If the law is more punitive and dysfunctional, more people will want to get rid of it in toto. But… rooting for voters to be harmed is not a helpful electoral coping strategy. A better political strategy is to offer an agenda going into the 2014 election that addresses the damage ObamaCare is doing to the individual and small-business insurance markets until a larger fix is possible.’… The conservative position is slowly shifting from repeal and replace, to replace and repeal. Much like you’d never tear down a structurally weak bridge without first building a sound one parallel to it, the right has awakened to the fact that Obamacare can’t be scrapped on the basis of a promise to clean up the incredible mess sometime in the future…. Count it as progress of a sort…”

  6. Jon Gruber and Harold Pollack: Reports of ACA demise: greatly exaggerated: “For this edition, I Skyped with Dr. Jonathan Gruber who is the Ford Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and director of the health care program at the National Bureau of Economic Research…. One tragedy deserves attention: Jon: I think, Harold, the single thing we probably need to keep the most focus on is the tragedy of the lack of Medicaid expansions…. A life-costing tragedy has taken place in America as a result of that Supreme Court decision… half the states in America are denying their poorest citizens health insurance paid for by the federal government…. I’m offended because I believe we can help poor people get health insurance, but I’m almost more offended…. When the Supreme Court decision came down, I said, ‘It’s not a big deal. What state would turn down free money from the federal government to cover their poorest citizens?’ The fact that half the states are… is nothing short of political malpractice…”

Continue reading “Things to Read at Night on April 8, 2014”

Evening Must-Read: Over at HealthInsurance.Org: Harold Pollack and Jon Gruber

Jon Gruber and Harold Pollack: Reports of ACA demise: greatly exaggerated: “For this edition, I Skyped with Dr. Jonathan Gruber…

…who is the Ford Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and director of the health care program at the National Bureau of Economic Research….

One tragedy deserves attention:

Jon: I think, Harold, the single thing we probably need to keep the most focus on is the tragedy of the lack of Medicaid expansions…. A life-costing tragedy has taken place in America as a result of that Supreme Court decision… half the states in America are denying their poorest citizens health insurance paid for by the federal government…. I’m offended because I believe we can help poor people get health insurance, but I’m almost more offended…. When the Supreme Court decision came down, I said, “It’s not a big deal. What state would turn down free money from the federal government to cover their poorest citizens?”

The fact that half the states are… is nothing short of political malpractice….

Harold: One of the things that’s really striking to me is there’s a politics of impunity towards poor people, particularly non-white poor people… a feature rather than a bug in the internal politics in some of these states…. It’s such a toxic political perspective…. It has to be shown that that approach to politics doesn’t work….

Jon: That’s a great way to put it. There’s larger principles…. These states are… not just turning down covering the poor people but turning down the federal stimulus that would come with that…. They are not just not interested in covering poor people, they are willing to sacrifice billions of dollars of injections into their economy in order to punish poor people. It really is just almost awesome in its evilness….

Harold: By the way, one of the real ironies is… every city and county and correctional system and public hospital desperately wants this…. From Texas, Harris County and the City of Houston… desperately need that money…. Maybe that just we have to wait until President Obama leaves office because it’s the centerpiece of his presidency and it’s just too hard to do while he’s sitting in that chair.

Jon: Harold, if we look at the original expansion of Medicaid, it took about five years to get all the states in…. We don’t have to panic at this point… we can overcome this, but it’s just very sad along the way…

What Is Going on with the Federal Reserve?: Watching an Ongoing Discussion

With unemployment above and inflation below its formal targets, Why is the Federal Reserve talking about withdrawing stimulus? Why is it talking about moving to a regime in which it is no longer purchasing long-term securities as part of quantitative easing? And why is it forecasting that it will begin to increase interest rates six months after quantitative easing ends?

I cannot say that I understand what is going on. Here we have some smart people who also do not understand what is motivating Federal Reserve policy gnawing at the problem–plus we have Janet Yellen saying that there is still an awful lot of slack in the American labor market.

  • Janet Yellen says that there is plenty of labor-market slack…
  • Jared Bernstein says that Janet Yellen is wise…
  • **James Hamilton thinks the approaching end of further quantitative easing is the right course…
  • Ryan Avent quotes Gabriel Chodorow-Reich to the effect that markets do not fear additional QE…
  • Keven Drum on how 2014 will be a watershed year for the Federal Reserve to decide whether it is a technocratic institution or not…
  • John Makin on how the Fed and the ECB need to move now to expand aggressively in order to preempt deflation…
  • Kevin Drum on sources of inflation paranoia…

Continue reading “What Is Going on with the Federal Reserve?: Watching an Ongoing Discussion”