Things to Read on the Morning of November 22, 2014

Must- and Shall-Reads:

 

  1. Alice Rivlin: People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have it in the Affordable Care Act: “That all sounds complicated, inconvenient and unfair. What have these ‘socialist Democrats’ done to us? But wait a minute: Isn’t that how markets are supposed to work? The United States never adopted a simple national health plan to cover everyone…. In general, Republicans argued that relying on market forces would give people what they wanted while also putting pressure on the health system to offer more effective care for less money…. In general, Democrats argued that government should set benefits and the prices it would pay, as in a ‘Medicare for all’ program…. They pointed out that markets didn’t work well in health care because consumers didn’t know enough to choose what was best for them…. The compromise was to combine markets with regulation, sometimes called ‘managed competition,’ now called ‘the Affordable Care Act.’… Should believers in market forces try to gut the Affordable Care Act? Heavens, no. They should seize this huge opportunity to prove their case by helping to make the law’s markets work effectively…”

  2. Steven Teles: Restrain Regressive Rent-Seeking: “the great paradox of the last third of a century is that we have actually had an explosion of regulation in this ‘supposedly deregulatory’ era… regulation that has the effect of redistributing, sometimes dramatically, upward…. Intellectual property protections, especially patents and copyright, have been expanded dramatically…. There is an argument that this expansion has actually reduced innovation, there is no doubt that it has allowed existing firms to use the force of law (rather than the market) to enrich themselves…. The same period has seen a transformation of occupational licensing, from a marginal force in our economic organization to one that is increasingly ubiquitous…. Finally, the incredible growth of the financial sector… also finds its source in government-derived rents… ‘too big to fail.’… By allowing a huge securitized housing finance market.. pushing more and more of American retirement savings into actively managed 401ks and IRAs… the government created the greatest pool of rents in the history of mankind…”

  3. Danny Vinik: Peter Schiff: My Inflation Prediction Was Correct. The Stats Are Lying: “Peter Schiff… might… be the person most wrong about America’s economic struggles. In 2009, Schiff not only warned of impending inflation but said it was already upon us…. In the newest issue of Reason, the libertarian magazine, he ‘responds’ to his critics….’It’s hard to ignore the victory chants coming from the White House press room, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee, the talking heads on financial television, and the editorial pages of The New York Times…. Their claims of victory are premature and inaccurate. Inflation is easy to see in our current economy, if you make a genuine attempt to measure it.’ Schiff goes on to cite the Big Mac index… argues that the ‘sandwich, which reflects the average person’s direct experience, may be a more accurate yardstick of inflation.’ This is wrong in so many ways…. If Schiff wants a metric that takes into account prices of everyday items—lettuce, tomato, bread, ground beef, etc.—he should look no further than the consumer price index…. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has created a separate inflation measure: The Billion Prices Project tracks prices online through massive retailers that have significant market share. The project only further confirms the accuracy of the CPI. It’s hard to think of any theory that has been more clearly disproven over the past six years than the right wing’s inflation paranoia. But the fanatics are not giving up. Is there any evidence at all that would convince Schiff—and his many followers—he’s wrong?
  4. Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher: A Note to Re/code Readers: “The biggest change for some of you, however, will be that we have decided to remove the commenting function from the site. We thought about this decision long and hard, since we do value reader opinion. But we concluded that, as social media has continued its robust growth, the bulk of discussion of our stories is increasingly taking place there, making onsite comments less and less used and less and less useful…. We believe that social media is the new arena for commenting, replacing the old onsite approach that dates back many years…”

  5. Jim Tankersley: Big cities are dominating the recovery, leaving the rest of America behind: “This isn’t how the economy typically worked over the last 35 years. Calculations made earlier this year by state economists in Oregon show that big cities tended to grow at rate similar to other areas of the country after a recession. Only the late 1990s were an exception. Until now…. Rural areas without oil or gas reserves have on average only recovered one-fifth to one-quarter of the jobs they lost during the crisis…. It may be that this geographic jobs gap is a permanent feature in an economy increasingly driven by brainpower and innovation, where clustering smart people in relatively small areas appears to boost labor productivity…. ‘Scale and density concentrate economic inputs like skilled people and R&D, intensify interactions, allow for labor market pooling and matching, allow for access to shared infrastructure,’ said Mark Muro, the metro program’s policy director. ‘This a fact of economic life. Place, scale and density matter.’…

  6. David Schleicher: Things Aren’t Going That Well Over There Either: Party Polarization and Election Law in Comparative Perspective by :: SSRN: “One of, if not the, most important change in American political life over the last 30 or so years has been the rise of extreme party polarization. Our two major parties are increasingly ideological distinct and distant from one another, and increasingly willing to abandon long-standing institutional norms and short-term policy compromise in the name of achieving long-run party goals. Efforts to understand why the parties have changed largely have been parochial, largely looking for explanations in American politics, history, media and institutional arrangements. This focus has a logic to it. Politics in most other advanced democracies does not feature the same type of polarization between parties, and therefore the answers for why American politics has gone in this direction seem to lie inward rather than abroad. But it is still a mistake. This short essay argues that a common shift in voter preferences towards more radical and fundamentalist opinion among even a small slice of the electorate can explain polarization in the United States and changes in politics abroad. In many European countries with proportional representation (PR), we have seen the rise of parties so radical that established parties refuse to form coalitions with them. In ‘Westminster’ systems, which due to their use of first-past-the-post vote counting and single-member districts are supposed to tend towards having two parties, we have seen the rise in third-and fourth party voting. Notably, in most Westminster systems, there is little intra-party democracy, leading groups of voters with more radical opinions without the ability to influence mainstream parties, which makes those with radical opinions more willing to waste votes. A plausible story about American political development is that the same voters and interest groups who would form radical parties in PR systems and support spoilers in Westminster systems use intraparty democracy to influence our two-party system and create polarization. Election laws and institutional design shape the way radicalism influences politics. If this is right, several lessons follow. Any effort to understand why American parties have changed must look at factors that are common across many western democracies. Further, the rise of radical parties in PR systems and spoilers in Westminster systems have created governance problems that are of a type with the problems created by our extreme polarization. We should thus be skeptical that there are institutional design reforms that can make American governance work easily in the face of polarization.”

Should Be Aware of:

 

  1. Brian Buetler: Republicans: Obama’s Immigration Action Is Illegal Just … Because: “A few months ago, before President Obama delayed his plan to extend deportation protections to more unauthorized immigrants, a group of conservative opinion journalists—New York Times columnist Ross Douthat, most prominently—weighed in on the idea in unequivocal terms…. Caesarism…. A step into the lawless void. It all sounded incredibly plausible, in no small part because Obama framed his own objective as a response to the fact that Congress hadn’t passed a law he wanted Congress to pass. That Obama also insisted, on multiple occasions, that only Congress could solve the deportation problem, further bolstered the right’s case. But it turns out that the laws on the books actually don’t say what you might think they say. Other presidents have discovered this, too. And since nobody wants to write a ‘maybe I should’ve asked some lawyers first’ mea culpa column, they shifted the debate from the terrain of laws to the murkier terrain of political precedent, norms, and procedure…”

  2. Kevin Drum: Republicans Finally Admit There Is No Benghazi Scandal: “For two years, ever since Mitt Romney screwed up his response to the Benghazi attacks in order to score campaign points, Republicans have been on an endless search for a grand conspiracy theory that explains how it all happened. Intelligence was ignored because it would have been inconvenient to the White House to acknowledge it. Hillary Clinton’s State Department bungled the response to the initial protests in Cairo. Both State and CIA bungled the military response to the attacks themselves. Even so, rescue was still possible, but it was derailed by a stand down order—possibly from President Obama himself. The talking points after the attack were deliberately twisted for political reasons. Dissenters who tried to tell us what really happened were harshly punished. Is any of this true? The House Select Intelligence Committee—controlled by Republicans—has been investigating the Benghazi attacks in minute detail for two years. Today, with the midterm elections safely past, they issued their findings. Their exoneration of the White House was sweeping and nearly absolute…”

  3. Anand Katakana: Immigrants aren’t taking your jobs, they’re making their own: “Mexicans, Indians, Chinese, Koreans and Cubans make up the bulk of migrant entrepreneurs, with 35 percent. But the entrepreneurship rate among Greek, Israeli, Palestinian and Syrian immigrants was higher than other nationalities. Over the last two decades, immigrant owned businesses have made up 30 percent of the growth in the small business economy, a significant chunk given that immigrants only account for 13 percent of the US population. Their businesses also performed better than your average American. Employees within these small companies earned over $55,000 a year over the median earned income of $41,000 a year, according to the Fiscal Policy Institute’s report…. It’s worth noting that there’s not a single city on that chart where the foreign-born share of business owners doesn’t exceed the foreign-born share of the population…”

Morning Must-Read: Alice Rivlin: People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have it in the Affordable Care Act

Alice Rivlin: People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have it in the Affordable Care Act: “That all sounds complicated, inconvenient and unfair…

…What have these ‘socialist Democrats’ done to us? But wait a minute: Isn’t that how markets are supposed to work? The United States never adopted a simple national health plan to cover everyone…. In general, Republicans argued that relying on market forces would give people what they wanted while also putting pressure on the health system to offer more effective care for less money…. In general, Democrats argued that government should set benefits and the prices it would pay, as in a ‘Medicare for all’ program…. They pointed out that markets didn’t work well in health care because consumers didn’t know enough to choose what was best for them…. The compromise was to combine markets with regulation, sometimes called ‘managed competition,’ now called ‘the Affordable Care Act.’… Should believers in market forces try to gut the Affordable Care Act? Heavens, no. They should seize this huge opportunity to prove their case by helping to make the law’s markets work effectively…

Morning Must-Read: Steve Teles: Restrain Regressive Rent-Seeking

**Steven Teles**: [Restrain Regressive Rent-Seeking](http://www.cato.org/publications/cato-online-forum/restrain-regressive-rent-seeking): “The great paradox of the last third of a century is that we have actually had…

>…an explosion of regulation in this ‘supposedly deregulatory’ era… regulation that has the effect of redistributing, sometimes dramatically, upward…. Intellectual property protections, especially patents and copyright, have been expanded dramatically…. There is an argument that this expansion has actually reduced innovation, there is no doubt that it has allowed existing firms to use the force of law (rather than the market) to enrich themselves…. The same period has seen a transformation of occupational licensing, from a marginal force in our economic organization to one that is increasingly ubiquitous…. Finally, the incredible growth of the financial sector… also finds its source in government-derived rents… ‘too big to fail.’… By allowing a huge securitized housing finance market.. pushing more and more of American retirement savings into actively managed 401ks and IRAs… the government created the greatest pool of rents in the history of mankind…

Morning Must-Read: Danny Vinik: Peter Schiff: My Inflation Prediction Was Correct. The Stats Are Lying

Danny Vinik: Peter Schiff: My Inflation Prediction Was Correct. The Stats Are Lying: “Peter Schiff… might… be the person most wrong…

…about America’s economic struggles. In 2009, Schiff not only warned of impending inflation but said it was already upon us…. In the newest issue of Reason, the libertarian magazine, he ‘responds’ to his critics….’It’s hard to ignore the victory chants coming from the White House press room, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee, the talking heads on financial television, and the editorial pages of The New York Times…. Their claims of victory are premature and inaccurate. Inflation is easy to see in our current economy, if you make a genuine attempt to measure it.’ Schiff goes on to cite the Big Mac index… argues that the ‘sandwich, which reflects the average person’s direct experience, may be a more accurate yardstick of inflation.’ This is wrong in so many ways…. If Schiff wants a metric that takes into account prices of everyday items—lettuce, tomato, bread, ground beef, etc.—he should look no further than the consumer price index…. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has created a separate inflation measure: The Billion Prices Project tracks prices online through massive retailers that have significant market share. The project only further confirms the accuracy of the CPI. It’s hard to think of any theory that has been more clearly disproven over the past six years than the right wing’s inflation paranoia. But the fanatics are not giving up. Is there any evidence at all that would convince Schiff—and his many followers—he’s wrong?

The changing dynamics of economic inequality and for-profit universities

Last month, the U.S. Department of Education announced their final “program integrity rules” that will govern universities and colleges receiving federal aid, including tuition paid through government grants and loans. The regulations, which will take effect in January 2015, include new “gainful employment” measures intended to asses how many of a school’s graduates find good jobs. Holding schools accountable seems obvious, especially considering the difficulty many young people have finding work. These rules, however, are likely to disqualify about 1,400 educational programs from receiving federal funds — 99 percent of which are programs run by for-profit schools — and are now being challenged in the courts by a trade association of for-profit schools.

How these changes will affect individual students and for-profit institutions is not yet known. That’s why the Washington Center for Equitable Growth awarded one of its 2014 grants to Ryan Sakoda and Shayak Sarkar, both Ph.D. candidates in Economics at Harvard University. Because no national data currently exists to study these kinds of reforms to federal student aid, the two researchers will study California, which in 2011 passed legislation imposing institutional eligibility standards for its state- based student aid. Between 2012 and 2013 the number of schools in California rendered ineligible for state funding rose to 154, impacting about 14,500 students who planned to attend these colleges. Sakoda and Sarkar plan to test whether these changes caused ineligible institutions to lower their tuition prices, change their instructional expenses, or experience changes in the demographic composition of their incoming students.  They also plan to analyze whether and to what extent these policy changes impacted individual students’ choice of educational institutions, or their decision to pursue post-secondary education at all.

For-profit, or propriety institutions, are the fastest growing higher education programs in the country. They market themselves as vocational and career training program for students in the United States, which, unlike other countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom, has no formal apprenticeship program. They also purport to fill an important gap, providing opportunities to underserved students seeking a higher education, especially minority, poor, and older students who might not be admitted to more traditional schools.

Yet research by David Deming, Claudia Goldin, and Lawrence Katz of Harvard University find that for-profit schools leave students with disproportionately high debt and default rates, which results in an increased burden on taxpayers. The reason: many for-profit schools rely on government aid in the form of federal and state student grants and loans for the majority of their revenue. These schools then use the increased funding to  increase their tuition by about 75 percent. The three authors found that, when measured six years after initial enrollment, students earn less than similar peers who attended non-profit or community colleges.

What’s more, according to a report done by the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, some of this money flows toward extensive marketing and recruitment, totaling an average of 23 percent of the school’s total budget, versus only 17 percent for actual academic instruction. An undercover federal government audit by the General Accountability Office, the non-partisan research arm of the U.S. Congress, found that many of these schools target marginalized populations and veterans, sometimes using highly aggressive and even fraudulent tactics.

Anyone who’s stayed up late watching TV has seen the commercials: The mother who inspires her children by getting her degree, the middle-aged man starting a new life in healthcare administration after being laid off from his manufacturing job, or the young woman who is able to fulfill her childhood dream of becoming an astronaut after attending a well-known for-profit school. These are inspirational stories, but many for-profit schools do the exact opposite of what they promise. Instead of being a means to improve students’ opportunities and economic security, some produce students with too much debts and too few skills. These students are disproportionately African American and Hispanic students, furthering the persistent racial divide in higher education. Through understanding how for-profit schools respond to regulation, there is an opportunity to expand access to quality education to all who seek it.

Afternoon Must-Read: Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher: Re/code Removes Comments

Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher: A Note to Re/code Readers: “The biggest change for some of you…

…however, will be that we have decided to remove the commenting function from the site. We thought about this decision long and hard, since we do value reader opinion. But we concluded that, as social media has continued its robust growth, the bulk of discussion of our stories is increasingly taking place there, making onsite comments less and less used and less and less useful…. We believe that social media is the new arena for commenting, replacing the old onsite approach that dates back many years…

Things to Read at Lunchtime on November 20, 2014

Must- and Shall-Reads:

 

  1. Paul Krugman: Structural Deformity: “Shinzo Abe is doing the right thing… trying to accomplish something very difficult, and it’s by no means clear whether the instruments he’s deploying are sufficient. Still, there’s one type of criticism that I really, really hate… especially because it’s one of those things that is so completely accepted by Very Serious People that they don’t even realize that they’re spouting a dubious hypothesis…. I refer to the claim that Japan doesn’t need a demand boost, it needs structural reformTM…. Traditionally, structural reform was offered as an answer to the problem of stagflation… accelerating inflation, despite quite high unemployment…. This argument makes a fair bit of sense… at least this was… coherent argument. But Japan isn’t suffering from stagflation; neither is Europe. They are, instead, suffering from low inflation or deflation, and persistent shortfalls in demand despite zero interest rates. Why, exactly, is structural reform supposed to help cure this problem?… There’s a definite snake-oil feel to calls for structural reform, which is touted as a universal elixir–it cures inflation, but it cures deflation too! Also back pain and bad breath…. The blanket call for ‘structural reform’ as the answer is intellectually lazy, and destructive…. What Japan needs right now, more than anything else, is to escape from deflation any way it can.”

  2. William Cohan: A First-Person History Lesson From Robert Rubin: “Asked why he was a Democrat… Rubin explained that his grandfather ran ‘the most powerful political club’ in Brooklyn, was a delegate to the 1936 Democratic Convention, and then added, ‘I’m in more of an eclectic position than most folks. I could have been a moderate Republican or a moderate Democrat, a centrist in either one, except if I look at where I am and then look at the people who are left on the spectrum, I relate to their values and the things that concern them. There are a number of areas where I don’t agree with them… [but] their concern for the poor and their concern for having a society that works for everybody instead of just for a few, the notion that you can’t put people out on their own to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps, and you have a society that helps people when they need it.’

  3. David Altig: “Monetary Policy Is an Exercise in Risk Management. Here is the probability of being wrong: 100 percent. The question is what is the worst way to be wrong. In our view, the worst way to be wrong is to pull the trigger too quickly than to pull the trigger a little bit late.”

  4. Paul Krugman: The Unwisdom of Crowding Out: “I am, to my own surprise, not too happy… with the defense of Keynes by Peter Temin and David Vines…. Temin-Vines… seems to conflate several different bad arguments under the heading of ‘Ricardian equivalence’, and in so doing understates the badness. The anti-Keynesian proposition is that government spending to boost a depressed economy will fail…. I actually see five arguments out there–two (including the actual Ricardian equivalence argument) completely and embarrassingly wrong on logical grounds, three more that aren’t logical nonsense but fly in the face of the evidence. First, there’s the Say’s Law argument…. ‘This is just accounting,’ declared John Cochrane. No, it isn’t–and it was the remarkable fact that prominent economists were saying things like this, as if none of the debates of the 1930s had happened, that led me to proclaim a Dark Age of macroeconomics. Second, there’s the misuse of Ricardian Equivalence…. Even if it were (it isn’t), what the anti-Keynesians were saying was wrong, as I tried to explain a number of times…. Third, there’s the standard textbook crowding-out story… [which] doesn’t work when we’re at the zero lower bound…. Fourth, there’s the claim that we’re at full employment, or maybe always at full employment…. Finally, there’s the confidence fairy…. You do a disservice to the debate by calling all of these things Ricardian equivalence; and the nature of that disservice is that you end up making the really, really bad arguments sound more respectable than they are…”

  5. Ta-Nehisi Coates: The Rape Accusations Against Bill Cosby Must Not Be Ignored: “I published a reported essay in 2008…. In that essay, there is a brief and limp mention of the accusations against Cosby… [with] no opinion offered on the rape accusations. This is not because I did not have an opinion…. Believing Bill Cosby does not require you to take one person’s word over another, it requires you take one person’s word over 15 others. At the time I wrote the piece, it was 13 peoples’ word–and I believed them. Put differently, I believed that Bill Cosby was a rapist…. A defender of Bill Cosby must, effectively, conjure a vast conspiracy, created to bring down one man, seemingly just out of spite. And people will do this work of conjuration, because it is hard to accept that people we love in one arena can commit great evil in another. It is hard to believe that Bill Cosby is a serial rapist because the belief doesn’t just indict Cosby, it indicts us. It damns us for drawing intimate conclusions about people based on pudding-pop commercials and popular TV shows. It destroys our ability to lean on icons for our morality…. And one cannot escape this chaos by hiding behind the lack of a court conviction…. I regret not saying what I thought of the accusations, and then pursuing those thoughts…. I would not dismiss all journalist who’ve declined to mention these allegations as cowards. It’s worth considering what it feels like to, say, have been among those convicting Richard Jewell in the press. And should I have decided to state what I believed about Cosby, I would have had to write a much different piece…. The Bill Cosby piece was my first shot writing for a big national magazine. I had been writing for 12 financially insecure years. By 2007, when I finished my first draft, I had lost three jobs in seven years…. I don’t have many writing regrets. But this is one of them. I regret not saying what I thought of the accusations, and then pursuing those thoughts. I regret it because the lack of pursuit puts me in league with people who either looked away, or did not look hard enough. I take it as a personal admonition to always go there, to never flinch, to never look away.”

  6. Pedro S. Amaral and Jessica Ice: Reassessing the Effects of Extending Unemployment Insurance Benefits: “To deal with the high level of unemployment during the Great Recession, lawmakers extended the availability of unemployment benefits—all the way to 99 weeks in the states where unemployment was highest. A recent study [by Hagedorn et al. (2013)] has found that the extensions served to increase unemployment significantly by putting upward pressure on wages, leading to less jobs creation by firms. We replicate the methodology of this study with an updated and longer sample and find a much smaller impact. We estimate that the impact of extending benefits on unemployment through wages and job creation can, at its highest, account for only one-fourth of the increase in the unemployment rate; an impact that is much lower than other estimates in the literature.”

  7. Lee Jong-Wha: China’s New World Order: “China – already the world’s largest exporter, manufacturer, and international-reserve-asset holder – is poised to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy (measured according to purchasing power parity) this year. Now, it is using its growing clout to reshape global economic governance…. This shift should not be surprising, given the widespread debate over the inherent weaknesses of existing international institutions and governance structures–in particular, China’s disproportionately small role in them…. Frustrated, China finally decided to push for the establishment of the AIIB, in which it will be the largest shareholder, with a stake of up to 50%. China will also provide the AIIB’s first president, and the bank’s headquarters will be in Beijing…”

Should Be Aware of:

 

  1. Josh Marshall: What Would That Look Like?): “Sen. Tom Coburn (R) of Oklahoma is half warning, half threatening that the President’s impending immigration executive order could lead to ‘instances of anarchy [or] violence’… [and] also spoke about acts of ‘civil disobedience.’…. Not to be too jocular, but I guess anti-immigrant activists could lay down on the sidewalk in the way of undocumented immigrants trying to walk to school and challenge the authorities to arrest them or lay down in the streets in the path of undocumented workers driving to work? It’s a bit like anti-gay marriage activists who wonder who will step forward to become the anti-gay marriage Rosa Parks…. In a basic nuts-and-bolts structural sense, it is hard to pull off the trappings of the righteous demand for your own rights when your own rights aren’t in any question and what you’re demanding is that someone else not get those rights…. With immigration and gay marriage there’s nothing going on other than not deporting people or allowing people to marry each other. Even if you think those things are terrible it’s very hard to find a victim. And it’s even harder to explain why that victim is you…. If you have any ideas about what anti-Obama immigration executive order civil disobedience would look like, please drop me a line and let me know.”

  2. Robert Waldmann: Whence the Right-Wing Confidence Back a Year Ago in ObamaCare’s Failure?: “Not the main topic but ‘the possession-of-knowledge syndrome fact that your subjective probability distributions tend to be much too tight when you know something about a subject.’ is very important and not usually mentioned when people invoke Kahneman and Tversky and all that. I think this is a problem for liberalism (I mean liberalism itself not mild leftism let alone free market fanaticism which I, being in Italy, call liberismo (it is odd for English speakers to pretend to be superior because they use an English word with the meaning perceived by non English speakers)). The core dogma of liberalism is that discussion and debate are useful. I think they are (I am closed minded enough to not consider abandoning the dogma that free discussion which rejects all (other) dogmas is best). But discussion does create the problem that people think they are right because they can present a fact which undermines every argument made by those with whom the disagree. It isn’t true that if one answers yes and another no and the other knows a lot more facts, then the correct answer must be no. Knowing more than someone else isn’t knowing everything, and knowing everything that ever happened wouldn’t imply knowing what will happen…”

  3. Glenn Hunter: Million-dollar Lawsuit Rips Winstead Advice in [John Goodman] NCPA Sex Scandal: “‘Putting aside the staggering monetary loses and bad PR, the deepest cut of all came from Baggett,’ the suit concludes. ‘He had been a supporter of [the NCPA] for many years. Yet with no remorse, Baggett actively covered up the ugly events of 2012, looked the other way, and when his conduct was exposed, he repeated the mantra of too many lawyers throughout the land: deny, deny, deny. Baggett pushed the moral compass of the organization to its polar extreme.’”

  4. William Cohan: A First-Person History Lesson From Robert Rubin: “Mr. Rubin said that during the heady days after the 1992 election, Mr. Clinton asked him what he thought about the idea of Hillary Clinton leading the effort to reform health care. He told Mr. Clinton he thought it would be ‘terrific’ and added, ‘I didn’t know Hillary very well at the time, but she struck me as being smart. The little bit I’d seen of her I liked her. She was very sensible, but I didn’t know her that well. I thought it was a terrific idea. In retrospect, it obviously wasn’t, but I didn’t know enough to know. Two years later I would have given, I think, very different advice.’

  5. William Cohan: A First-Person History Lesson From Robert Rubin: Mr. Rubin said that he was unlikely to return to Washington anytime soon. He joked that it was more likely he would end up in Guantánamo, and if he did, he wanted ‘a water view.’ Still, he seemed to relish his time serving Mr. Clinton. ‘It’s an amazing experience to have, not only because you can do things that you care about, which I did and it was good, but you also see the world in such a different way,’ he said. ‘You see how our society functions from the intersection point of policy and politics and message and media, all those things together. A lot of it is policy, communication, message, media. I said to Steve Friedman… before he went down there, “Steve, if you do this, you’ll never read a newspaper article again about an administration or read a book and see it the same way. You’ll see it through a different prism.” It is a remarkable experience to have, but I wouldn’t do it again. Nobody’s asked me to do it, so it’s academic, but I’m just saying.’”

Morning Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Structural Deformity

Paul Krugman: Structural Deformity: “Shinzo Abe is doing the right thing…

…trying to accomplish something very difficult, and it’s by no means clear whether the instruments he’s deploying are sufficient. Still, there’s one type of criticism that I really, really hate… especially because it’s one of those things that is so completely accepted by Very Serious People that they don’t even realize that they’re spouting a dubious hypothesis…. I refer to the claim that Japan doesn’t need a demand boost, it needs structural reformTM….

Traditionally, structural reform was offered as an answer to the problem of stagflation… accelerating inflation, despite quite high unemployment…. This argument makes a fair bit of sense… at least this was… coherent argument. But Japan isn’t suffering from stagflation; neither is Europe. They are, instead, suffering from low inflation or deflation, and persistent shortfalls in demand despite zero interest rates. Why, exactly, is structural reform supposed to help cure this problem?… There’s a definite snake-oil feel to calls for structural reform, which is touted as a universal elixir–it cures inflation, but it cures deflation too! Also back pain and bad breath…. The blanket call for ‘structural reform’ as the answer is intellectually lazy, and destructive…. What Japan needs right now, more than anything else, is to escape from deflation any way it can.

How low can the U.S. unemployment rate go?

Determining the “natural rate of unemployment” in the U.S. labor market—the point at which nearly full employment is reached without sparking wage-driven inflation—is very much on the minds of economists today. The unemployment rate was 5.8 percent in October and the labor market has added an average of 229,000 jobs a month over the course of 2014, with unemployment down sharply from 7.2 percent in October 2013 and average gains in net jobs in 2013 of only 194,000 a month. Yet weaknesses still abound. The prime-age employment-to-population ratio is still 2.8 percentage points below its peak prior to the start of the Great Recession in December 2007. And long-term unemployment continues to be very high.

So just how healthy is the U.S. labor market? And how much more can policymakers, particularly those at the Federal Reserve, do to help increase employment without overheating the labor market?

The issue of the long-term unemployed is particularly important for determining where the natural rate of unemployment should be. Economists generally believe there is point at which the labor market is in equilibrium with inflationary pressures, hence that more technical name—the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU for short. But how do the long-term unemployed factor into this specific rate of unemployment?

Many economists argue that the long-term unemployed are detached from the labor market. Workers unemployed for such a period shouldn’t be counted among those actively looking for a job. Doing so would make us believe the labor market is much weaker it actually is. Alan Krueger, a Princeton University economist and former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama, is a prominent proponent of this view.

On the other side of the debate, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released three blog posts this week arguing that the long-term unemployed are very much attached to the labor market. Rob Dent, Samuel Kapon, Fatih Karahan, Benjamin W. Pugsley, and Ayşegül Sahin find the long-term unemployed are very similar to the short-term unemployed in terms of demographics, have similar long-run labor market outcomes, and affect wage growth just as much as other unemployed workers.

So should economists include the long-term unemployed in our measures of labor market slack? And if so then, how low should we push the unemployment rate?

Matt Yglesias at Vox has a good rundown on the NAIRU concept, including the very-real possibility that there is no natural rate of unemployment. But as Jared Bernstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities points out, making sure we don’t aim too high with this number is critical for running an economy at full employment.

What would happen to overall inflation, though, if wage growth did accelerate as the labor market heats up? Carola Binder, a PhD candidate at the University of California, Berkeley, summarizes the evidence and finds that the relationship between wage growth and overall inflation isn’t as strong as you might think.

The U.S. labor market today is clearly on the mend. Job growth is slower than we might expect after such a large recession, but it’s getting better. And recent evidence shows that there is room for improvement. After rolling the boulder so far up the hill, it’d be shame to stop now because of possible miscalculations of the status of the long-term unemployed and their effect on wage growth. After all, inflation today is one problem not in need of immediate attention.

Night Thoughts on Martin Wolf’s Shocking Shifts: Daily Focus

Martin Wolf’s column this week contains a very nice precis of the main argument of his recent The Shifts and the Shocks:

Martin Wolf: The Curse of Weak Global Demand: “This feeble performance–even the 6 per cent rise in real demand in the US…

…over more than six years is pathetic by historical standards–occurred despite the most aggressive monetary policies in history…. Yet this has not been nearly enough…. How do we explain such weak demand?… Three sets…. The first… stresses the post-crisis overhang of private debt and the damage to confidence caused by the sudden disintegration of the financial system…. The second… argues that the pre-crisis demand was unsustainable because it relied on huge accumulations of private and public debt…. The implication of this is that economies suffer not just from a post-crisis balance-sheet recession, but from an inability to generate credit-driven demand on the pre-crisis scale. Behind the unsustainability of pre-crisis demand lie global imbalances, shifts in income distribution and structurally weak investment…. The third set… points to a slowdown in potential growth, due to some combination of demographic changes, slowing rises in productivity and weak investment… feeds directly into the second…. The reason that extreme policy has been so ineffective is that the economies suffer from such deep-seated ailments. It is not just about weak supply. But it is also not just about weak demand. Nor is it just about the debt overhang or financial shocks. Each economy also has a different combination of ailments…

The deep-seated ailments that Wolf identifies are, I think, sixfold:

  1. In economic reality: the great rise in income and wealth inequality, with its consequent pressures for (i) overleverage and (ii) volatility of demand–the non-rich are pressured to spend by their needs for the necessities and their desires for the conveniences of life, while the rich are not.
  2. In economic reality: the emergence of the emerging-market liberalization, technological globalization, and first-world aging-driven “global savings glut”–or perhaps the global investment shortage–with its consequent extraordinary rise in global demand for assets perceived to be safe.
  3. In economic theory: the “insouciance” generated by the rational-expectations and efficient-markets hypotheses that produced a deep skepticism of pragmatic regulation to minimize systemic risk, a skepticism apparently and temporarily confirmed by the fact of the Great Moderation.
  4. In economic policy: the resulting production of both the deregulation of the 2000s that made it easy to sell assets perceived to be safe that were not in fact so, and the policy-making climate in which it apparently made sense in 2008 and since to do what was but no more than necessary to handle the crisis.
  5. In finance: the fact that tail risks had not been realized for generations meant that they were underweighted and portfolios were not properly hedged: as Minsky said, the fact of past stability destabilizes the future.
  6. In economic policy: the hubris of settling on a 2%/year inflation target as providing enough sea-room, and the greater hubris of the euro–the creation of a single currency over an area vastly greater than any optimum currency area, especially when coupled with the absence of the fiscal-union and banking-union supports that might have provided safety valves and with the assignment of a leading role in the eurozone to a Germany hag-ridden by an economic episteme that made the maintenance of aggregate demand always somebody else’s problem.

The financial crisis that hit the North Atlantic in 2008 hit a world economy that had just undergone these six shifts, and the consequence was a disaster that looks like it has permanently robbed the North Atlantic of about 10% of its wealth.

As to what ought to be done right now in the short run to try to recoup at least part of that permanent wealth-destruction, my reading of Martin Wolf’s book leads me to believe that he sees, as I see:

  • A North Atlantic desperately short of both public and other long-term investment spending.
  • A North Atlantic in which a continued shortage of supply of safe assets relative to demand at full employment puts downward pressure on spending.
  • A North Atlantic in which the sub-2%/year trend of inflation creates unjustifiable risks of the ZLB trap, and even worse, unjustifiable risks of deflation.

These seem to me at least to call for easy solutions:

  • Reserve-currency issuing governments that increase their investment spending and increase their guarantees of long-term investments.
  • Reserve-currency issuing governments that finance these increased spending projects by issuing high-quality debt to resolve the safe asset shortage.
  • Reserve-currency issuing governments that monetize enough of this debt to raise the trend inflation rate from 2%/year to 3%/year or 4%/year.

As to what ought to be done in the medium run, Martin calls for:

  • “The Eurozone [to] confront an existential challenge… decide either to break up… or to create a minimum set of institutions and policies that would make it work…”
  • Strong regulatory mandates to greatly diminish leverage and the use of debt.

I certainly agree with the first–but I see no political road to the creation of even the minimum set of institutions and policies in the eurozone.

I am less sure about the second. Debt is a very useful social instrumentality: we do not want everyone to have to pay all the attention all the time to all of their investments that we demand of prudent equity-holders. A focus on making sure that debts are good via aggressive stress-testing coupled with prudent government backstops via resolution mechanisms, guarantees, and aggregate spending targeting feels better to me. Yes, I know that this means that at times the government will wind up paying money out to feckless lenders and the government will thus provide business opportunities to feckless borrowers. But this ain’t a morality play: credit card companies do not attempt to eliminate credit card fraud but simply to balance its costs against the provision of convenience to their customers. Governments should have the same attitude toward the regulation of debt and risk.

And for the long run, Martin calls for:

  • A more equal distribution of income and wealth.
  • A better economics–one less in thrall to rational-expectations and efficient-market ideologues.
  • “More globalization and less–more global regulation and cooperation, and more freedom for individual countries to craft their own responses to the pressures of a globalizing world…”
  • Additional reforms of finance that diminish “its role in generating property bubbles… [as] the leveraging up of the stock of land is a consistently destabilizing phenomenon…”

I suspect that the fourth of these looms large in Martin’s mental universe simply because he is based in London. I am not sure it is that big a deal for the world as a whole–my reading of 2008- is that the property booms and busts did not create systemic risk any more than the dot-com boom and bust of the previous decade did, but rather that the critical flaws were elsewhere in high finance.

And as for the other three, the question is: How do we get there? If 2005-2014 does not create a new and very different economics in the universities and among the policy-making community, what would? Today’s superrich and even rich have a very strong material interest in not having a more equal distribution of wealth and income, and they hold a great deal of political power. And when Wolf call for both “more globalization and less” what I hear is a disheartened cry for better policymaking. But we will get that only when we live in Platonis πολιτείᾳ, non in Romuli faece–when we live in the republic of Plato, not in the shit of Romulus.


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