Duncan Wheldon Looks at the Eurozone Outlook

The very thoughtful Duncan Wheldon: Inflation, Macroeconomics, and the Dress, wrote:

The big question in the coming months (especially in the Eurozone) is whether the positive income shock from lower commodity prices is enough to boost aggregate demand by enough to turn around a longer running disinflationary trend. For the time being, that looks to be the case. At the moment the current ‘deflation scare’ in the West looks to be just that — a scare. To see if it’s really something to worry about, we need to look away from headline CPI and focus on core inflation and wage growth.

And? Do we get to look at that in the next serial episode?

It is certainly true that we have not since 1979 had an episode in which an oil-driven jump in headline price inflation has fed through via any sort of expectational mechanism into a persistent shift in core inflation or in wage inflation. As I read history, that was because A.V. (After Volcker) investors, businesses, and workers trusted (or feared) central bankers to keep nominal aggregate demand roughly on track over time no matter what happened to oil prices. But after the massive undershoots of 2008–2015 is this still true?

It is still only a risk. But I wouldn’t call it a “scare”. “Scare” implies that it really is not a risk, and I do not see how we can conclude that right now.

Lunchtime Must-Read: Paul Krugman (2005): A Whiff of Stagflation

Paul Krugman: A Whiff of Stagflation (April 2005): “Suppose that the housing bubble bursts… [that] could easily turn our mild case of stagflation into something much more serious….

…How do we get out of this bind? As the old joke goes, I wouldn’t start from here. We should have spent the years of cheap oil encouraging conservation; we should have spent the years of modest growth in medical costs reforming our health care system. Oh, and we’d have a wider range of policy options if the budget weren’t so deeply in deficit. So if any of these things does come to pass, we’ll just have to see how well an administration in which political operatives make all economic policy decisions, and the Treasury secretary is only a salesman, handles crises.

Entrepreneurialism and access to capital for women and minorities

New businesses are a critical source of employment for both new workers and those who are still struggling in the job market. According to a new Hamilton Project report by Michael Barr, the number of small businesses started by two specific groups—women and minorities—were on the rise prior to the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Yet the report finds that women and minorities still face several constraints to growth, one of the most important being a lack of access to capital.

In his report, Barr, a University of Michigan law professor (and a member of Equitable Growth’s research advisory board), emphasizes the importance of capital for the success and growth of start-up businesses. Barr finds that minority entrepreneurs must rely more on personal capital than external—which is problematic, considering that minorities and women have less access to external capital from outside lenders. Indeed, previous research shows that African Americans, Hispanics, and women all begin businesses with less capital than white men, and the gaps do not decrease over time. For those who want to grow their businesses, hire more workers, and compete with businesses owned by white men, this is often a major constraint.

Wealth inequality is another known factor in the success of white men launching new businesses with more capital. Analysis of the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances found that in 2013, the median wealth of white households was 13 times the median wealth of African American households and 10 times that of Hispanic households. And in 2007, never-married women held only 6 percent of the wealth of never married men. Less wealth means that women and minority entrepreneurs have less collateral for business loans—and therefore cannot invest as much in their businesses.

In fact, a 2005 study found that the disparity between African American and white asset levels accounted for over 15 percent of the difference in business creation rates between the two races. And, while policymakers tout the importance of growing small businesses, they do not address the critical importance of closing this wealth gap as a means to increase entrepreneurship. Addressing wealth inequality, while not a silver bullet, could effectively empower more women and minority entrepreneurs to grow their businesses and help expand the economy.

Barr’s policy recommendations also are worthy of consideration by lawmakers on Capitol Hill who are looking for more immediate solutions. Barr calls for expanding the State Small Business Credit Initiative and making the New Markets Tax Credit permanent—focusing more on expanding access to capital rather than wealth building. As policymakers continue to try to get Americans back to work, they need to focus on the constraints limiting women and minority entrepreneurs from growing their businesses and hiring more workers.

Nighttime Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: Eurozone Fiscal Policy

Simon Wren-Lewis: Eurozone Fiscal Policy: “The impact of fiscal austerity on the Eurozone as a whole has been immense….

…I did a back of the envelope calculation which said that GDP in 2013 might be around 4% lower as a result of cuts in government consumption and investment…. Sebastian Gechert, Andrew Hughes Hallett and Ansgar Rannenberg… use a meta analysis… fiscal multipliers are larger in depressed economies… GDP was 7.7% lower by 2013…. been willing or able to counteract. Yet the speed at which those in charge of the Eurozone begin to realise the mistake that they have made is painfully slow. Take this recent Vox piece by Marco Buti and Nicolas Carnot…. The mistake there is simple. When monetary policy is stuck at the Zero Lower Bound… getting the fiscal gap right is important in the longer term, but in the short term it is the means by which you get the output gap to zero…. An additional complication… a country… too competitive relative to the rest of the Eurozone… needs to run a positive output gap… to generate the inflation that will correct that position, and vice versa. For that reason Germany needs a large positive output gap at the moment… therefore a much more expansionary fiscal policy…. So at both the aggregate and individual country level, the inappropriate bias towards fiscal contraction that caused huge losses in the Eurozone in the past continues to operate…

Nighttime Must-Read: Nick Bunker: One Slack Measure to Rule Them All?

Nick Bunker: One Slack Measure to Rule Them All?: “Slack definitely seem to be on the decline. But if you want to cite one stat…

…which one do you turn to? Prime-age EPOP? U6-U3?… Definitely not a good measure right now: the unemployment rate…. The decline in U3 doesn’t seem to be matching up with the movements in the wage growth data…. How about the difference between U3 and the U6 measure of unemployment? Similar…. How about prime-age EPOP?… It works here. Looks to me that the up-tick in ECI growth seems to be happening around the same time as the up-tick in the growth of the prime-age EPOP…. I thought it was interesting how well prime-age EPOP did and that it tracked ECI so well.

Things to Read on the Evening of March 15, 2015

Must- and Shall-Reads:

Should Be Aware of:

Afternoon Must-Read: Abhijit V. Banerjee and Sendhil Mullainathan: The Shape of Temptation: Implications for the Economic Lives of the Poor

Abhijit V. Banerjee and Sendhil Mullainathan: The Shape of Temptation: Implications for the Economic Lives of the Poor: “The relation between temptations and the level of consumption plays a key role in explaining the observed behaviors of the poor…

…Temptation goods… generate positive utility for the self that consumes them, but not for any previous self that anticipates that they will be consumed…. The assumption… that the fraction of the marginal dollar that is spent on temptation goods decreases with overall consumption has a number of striking implications for the… behavior of the poor…. Predicted behaviors under the declining temptation assumption can help us explain some of the puzzling facts about the poor that have been emphasized in the recent literature.

Afternoon Must-Read: Tim Duy: Will the Dollar Impact US Growth?

Tim Duy: Will the Dollar Impact US Growth?: “If ECB policy… was a net positive for the US economy, shouldn’t we expect higher long US interest rates?

But long US rates continue to hover around 2%…. The stronger dollar does negatively impact growth, but market participants expect a monetary offset. Hence… the ball is in the Federal Reserve’s court… assuming the Federal Reserve takes sufficient note of the rising dollar, and its impact on inflation…. Paul Krugman is lamenting the possibility that some FOMC members interpret falling interest rates as reason to tighten policy more aggressively–a view primarily outlined by New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley…. Dudley’s stance clearly opens the door to the possibility of the Fed running an excessively tight policy stance, which wouldn’t happen if they took their inflation target seriously.

Afternoon Must-Read: Daniel Kuehn: Why Inequality Matters

Daniel Kuehn: Why Inequality Matters: “I’ve regularly heard two odd critiques of the preoccupation with inequality…

…(1) Inequality doesn’t matter, poverty does; (2) Inequality only matters if it comes through corruption, and in that case it’s just a symptom…. Both have a kernel of truth…. [But] caring about poverty and corruption does not eliminate the case for concern about inequality that does not arise from corruption in a relatively wealthy society… because (1) of our sense of fairness, and (2) the fact that opportunities or capacities are unevenly distributed, independent of any additional corruption that may exacerbate inequality further…. It feels a little silly to even make it. But I’ve seen both of the above objections with such frequency that I feel like I have to…. How do we think about Aristotle’s principle in a recursive system? Is redistributing capital ‘making unequal things equal’ or is failing to redistribute capital ‘making equal things unequal’? This is tricky enough in one generation because you have to distinguish between effort and luck of birth…. It gets very hard indeed when we move beyond one generation, because the choices of parents become the endowments of children…

Afternoon Must-Read: Tim Jost: Another Perspective on King v. Burwell

Tim Jost>: Another Perspective On King v. Burwell: “The plaintiffs in King v. Burwell argue that the ACA limits premium tax credits to… state-operated marketplaces and not the federally facilitated marketplace….

There is no evidence in the extensive record of congressional committee hearings or debates that this is what Congress intended. The members of Congress who in fact drafted the legislation have represented [PDF] to the Supreme Court that this claim is false. Moreover, the states [PDF] did not understand that premium tax credits would be limited to state-operated exchanges when they were deliberating…. The phrase ‘Exchange established by the State’ in fact appears ten times in the ACA…. As a condition of having a state Medicaid program… a state must, as of January 1, 2014 have in place procedures for enrolling in Medicaid and CHIP eligible individuals who are identified through an ‘Exchange established by the State.’… As a condition of approval of a state CHIP program, HHS must… review the benefits offered… by qualified health plans through an ‘Exchange established by the State’ and certify that they are least comparable…. So how can we avoid shutting down the Medicaid and CHIP programs, and destroying the individual insurance markets in two thirds of the states? It is simple. The court should read carefully all of the provisions of the law relevant to the federal exchange and premium tax credits so as to achieve a ‘harmonious whole,’ the way the court has often said statutes should be read…. The court must either decide that the word ‘by’ in § 1401 is the only word that matters in the ACA, and ignore over 50 provisions that support the contention that the federal marketplace can be, given the way the term is used in the statute as a term of art, an exchange established by the state…. [It can] use the doctrine of constitutional avoidance to rule for the plaintiffs since otherwise the threat to the states would raise constitutional coercion and notice requirements…. It can simply affirm the Fourth Circuit’s decision to defer to the IRS’s interpretation of the statute under Chevron…