Must-read: Noah Smith: “America Isn’t Going Broke”

Must-Read: Noah Smith: America Isn’t Going Broke: “The U.S. government isn’t insolvent…

…Insolvency… [is] when liabilities are greater than assets. That’s very basic accounting. One of the U.S. government’s assets is its ability to tax…. The national debt–which includes debt held by the public and money owed to other branches of the government–is only equal to about six years’ worth of tax revenue. If the U.S. devoted a fifth of tax revenue to paying down the entire national debt, it would take 30 years to do it. That’s not insolvency….

The federal debt held by the public is now growing at about a 3 percent rate, while the economy is growing at about a 3.4 percent rate (these are both in nominal terms)…. the U.S. deficit is now perfectly sustainable. This represents a remarkable–possibly even excessive–display of fiscal responsibility by the U.S. government…. So the U.S. debt isn’t frighteningly large, nor is it growing in relation to the economy. In the future, it might do so, if health care prices accelerate again, or if the population ages more. But the U.S. can take steps to address those contingencies when they happen. For now, the U.S. is living in the greatest period of fiscal responsibility since the second Clinton administration.

Resist the urge to engage in debt hysterics, please.

Weekend reading: “Rents, retirement, and family economic security” edition

This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth has published this week and the second is work we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

Equitable Growth round-up

Two weeks ago, Heather Boushey and Kavya Vaghul showed how the increasing entrance of women into America’s paid labor force over the past few decades has propped up family income growth. In a new piece this week, Boushey and Vaghul show how these trends vary across race and ethnicity.

The rise of passive index investing and concerns about short-termism by corporations has sparked a debate about who gets to allocate capital in the United States. But in a way, this debate is also about who gets some of the increased profits of recent years.

A crisis is looming in the United States as many households haven’t saved enough for retirement. At the same time, we might have too much saving relative to investment opportunities. So how we should help improve retirement security?

The economies of high-income countries have become financialized over the past 30 years as credit has almost doubled as a share of gross domestic product. How does this affect the functioning of the macroeconomy? A new paper lays out some key stylized facts.

Links from around the web

The incarceration rate in the United States is incredibly high by both international and historical comparisons. As a result, sentencing laws are under increasing scrutiny. And the economic evidence, as Jason Furman and Douglas Holtz-Eakin argue, shows that the costs of incarceration now far outweigh the benefits. [nyt]

The welfare reform of the 1990s was intended to increase the labor force participation of women on the program. But the program also had extremely sharp benefit phase-outs, encouraging some women to work less in order to stay on the program. Patrick Kline and Melissa Tartari write up their paper on this topic. [microeconomic insights]

We’re all familiar with the dangers of subprime mortgages. But while those financial instruments have retreated from the scene, a new product has emerged that replicates many of their problems. Heather Perlberg looks into the rise of “seller-financed” home sales. [bloomberg]

Numerous writers and analysts (yours truly included) have raised concerns about increases in market concentration, declines in competition, and higher economic rents. Does this have a negative impact on economic growth? Dietz Vollrath says it depends, but it likely reduces innovation. [growth economics]

As the U.S. health care sector has more than a few problems, the Affordable Care Act aimed to change a wide number of things about the system—one of which is the medical debt. Margot Sanger-Katz details a new study on how the law is improving financial security. [the upshot]

Friday figure

Figure from “Across races, women bolster family economic security” by Heather Boushey and Kavya Vaghul

Must-read: Patrick Dunleavy: “Choosing Useless Titles”

Must-Read: Patrick Dunleavy: Choosing Useless Titles: “The really useless title must be as similar as possible to a thousand others…

…or so obscure that its meaning completely evades readers. It could also miscue or mis-direct readers…. The top five most popular versions are:

  1. A ‘cute’ title using ‘ordinary language’ words with a clear meaning, but taken radically out of context… the author should know what it means, and as few other people as possible…. ‘I introduce my work in such esoteric ways, because I am so much cleverer than you’. It also ensures that anyone interested in the topic covered would be very unlikely to input these words into a search engine….

  2. A ‘cute’ title that is completely obscure. This is a variant of (1) where even the language the author includes in the title is incomprehensible….

  3. An ultra-vague, vacuous, completely conventional, or wholly formal title, preferably one that could mean almost anything. To be fully obscure here it is vital to pick vocabulary that is as general or unspecific as possible and is capable of multiple possible meanings…. ‘Accounting for ministers’ could be about politicians running government departments in parliamentary countries; or alternatively, a manual for vicars or priests doing their income tax returns.

  4. An empty box title…. For example: ‘Regional development in eastern Uganda, 1975-95′ gives you a location, a date range and a topic. But the key message is still: ‘I have done some work in this box (topic area), and I have some findings. But I’m not going to give you any clues at all about what they are’….

  5. The look-alike, empty box title… where the paper title… is devoid of any distinguishing or memorable features of its own. For instance: ‘John Stuart Mill on Education’…. ‘Key features of capitalism’….

  6. The interrogative title, which must always end with a question mark. Again vagueness is an asset in seeking obscurity…

Some new stylized facts for a financialized economy

Two traders watch the monitors on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Fifty-five years ago, Nicholas Kaldor, a macroeconomist at the University of Cambridge, laid out six “stylized facts” about economies. Kaldor wasn’t just summarizing what economists had learned about macroeconomics at that point, but he was also outlining what macroeconomists should push forward with their research, as Charles Jones and Paul Romer note in their piece on “the new Kaldor facts.”

In the wake of the Great Recession, economists have started to grapple with the fact that their macroeconomic models didn’t fully appreciate the importance of the financial sector in the swings of the economy. Although they’ve already started this endeavor, a set of stylized facts about the influence of finance and credit might also be helpful. Luckily, a new paper provides such a list.

Written by economists Òscar Jordà of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Moritz Schularick of the University of Bonn, and Alan M. Taylor of the University of California, Davis, the paper was part of the annual National Bureau of Economics Research conference on macroeconomics held last week in Cambridge. The paper is part of the economists’ research agenda looking at the long history of banking and credit and their effects on the macroeconomy.

After the ratio of credit to gross domestic product among high-income countries essentially stayed stable for a century, it has increased dramatically since the late 1970s. In 1980, the average bank-lending-to-GDP ratio for high-income countries was 62 percent. Thirty years later in 2010, it was 118 percent. It’s for good reason that economists call this jump the “financial hockey stick.” The increase is due primarily to more mortgage lending as households in advanced economies have become more and more leveraged.

So what does this increasing leverage and financialization mean for these economies overall? Very quickly, here are the paper’s topline results:

  • Higher credit is associated with less volatility in overall economic growth, consumption, and investment.
  • More credit is associated with lower average economic growth.
  • More credit is also associated with higher chances of more “spectacular crashes.”
  • All of these correlations are stronger in the period of high leverage since the 1980s.

Note that these are just correlations, so the paper isn’t saying that credit necessarily causes these outcomes. Rather, models of the macroeconomy should be able to account for the strong relationships between key measures (output, consumption, investment) and the amount of credit in the economy. In our financialized economy, it’s something we should figure out sooner rather than later.

Interactive: The changing economics of the American family

In “Finding Time: The Economics of Work-Life Conflict,” author Heather Boushey explores the disconnect between current U.S. labor policy and the increasingly harried lives of American workers. Many of the policies that govern our working lives were written decades ago. American family structures and the arrangements American workers have with their employers have changed rapidly over that period. The result is that individuals and families both find themselves crunched for time in the new economy.

This animation introduces some of the issues discussed in the book. Scroll down to follow the story of the changing economics of the American family.

Finding Time Interactive
image/svg+xml
image/svg+xmlFemale black symbol
1948
Families $27k
Men $21k
Women $9k
87%
33%
1948
1948
Median Incomes, 2014 $
Male labor force participation
Female labor force participation
Scroll down to see how labor force participation and income has changed for men and women since 1948. Recessions are shaded gray.
For decades, female participation in the U.S. labor force and female pay rose, and family income rose with it.
But male labor force participation declined over this same period.
Worse yet, male median income has been stagnant since 1979.
The result is that family incomes grew quickly before 1979 but have risen slowly since.
But the problem isn't just that incomes are stagnant.
Unlike in 1948, both parents (or a single parent) work.
Mothers are doing more paid work and more child care. Fathers are doing more housework and child care.
So families are working more but incomes are flat.
This isn't just a problem for families. It's a problem for our economy.
Facing increasing time and income constraints, workers are less productive, and worker turnover is higher.
The problem is that our workplaces and our economic policies weren't designed with modern families in mind.

Resolving these problems requires policymakers to rethink the relationship between employers and employees. In “Finding Time,” Boushey explains how doing so won’t just help families reclaim lost time—it will also benefit our economy.

Sources: Family, female, and male median income figures from the U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements, tables P2 and F7. Female and male labor force participation rates from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LNS11300001 and LNS1130000 2, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data on percentage of children with full-time caregivers from Philip Cohen’s analysis of the American Community Survey. Data on time use of mothers and fathers from Suzanne M. Bianchi, John P. Robinson, and Melissa A. Milkie, Changing Rhythms of American Family Life (Russell Sage Foundation, 2006): American Time Use Survey, from: Council of Economic Advisers, Work-Life Balance and the Economics of Workplace Flexibility, June 2014.

Preparing for retirement when there’s a savings glut

In this February 11, 2005 file photo, printed Social Security checks wait to be mailed from the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Management services facility in Philadelphia.

There’s increasing evidence that the United States has a looming retirement security problem on its hands. Many Americans have not been able to save enough to secure an adequate income after they retire. As this fact has sunk in, researchers, policymakers, and advocates have all suggested reforms to our retirement savings system such as automatic enrollment in savings plans or expanding Social Security benefits. What should we think of these proposals in light of the possibility that we’re living in a world of secular stagnation, where more saving may be a problem?

Consider two recent pieces about retirement savings in the United States—the first by Derek Thompson of The Atlantic and the second by Dylan Matthews of Vox. Thompson focuses in part on why a broad swath of Americans haven’t been saving enough when it comes to retirement, running through a number of hypotheses including slow income growth, rising income inequality, and conspicuous consumption. He wonders if the best way to increase their retirement savings is just to make them save more via a forced savings plan or to expand Social Security.

This second option is the focus of Matthews’ piece. Matthews wonders if we should just scrap the entire private savings system and then massively expand Social Security. The expansion that he proposes—a guaranteed benefit equivalent to either the poverty line or 80 percent of average earnings up to just over $60,000 a year, whichever amount is greater—would effectively end the need for most Americans to save for retirement.

Now a large chunk of Americans would no longer have to actively save for retirement by buying stocks or bonds through their retirement plans. As Matthews points out, this could affect economic growth if private savings are reduced enough that investments also get reduced. But remember that the original concern was that most Americans weren’t saving much in the first place. During the mid-2000s, the bottom 90 percent of Americans by wealth had a negative savings rate. Around 80 percent of financial assets are held by the richest 20 percent of U.S. households. Matthews’ proposal might result in some decrease in how much these richer households save, but a significant reduction in their savings rates seems unlikely.

And of course, there’s the chance that the economy has a persistent surplus of savings relative to investment opportunities, also known as secular stagnation. Not reducing the supply of savings might actually be a problem. Then again, increasing households’ future wealth by guaranteeing a significant amount of income in retirement would probably boost households’ consumption in the present. In fact, according to Larry Summers, John Maynard Keynes viewed Social Security benefits as a boost to aggregate demand. And research by Christina Romer and David Romer of the University of California, Berkeley shows that there have been significant consumption increases in response to past benefit increases. So while most of the debate about expanding Social Security will center on retirement security, it’s also worth keeping an eye on the potential macroeconomic impacts.

Must-reads: April 20, 2016


Should-reads:

Must-read: Emanuele Felice: “The Challenges of Updating the Contours of the World Economy”

Must-Read: Emanuele Felice (2014): The Challenges of Updating the Contours of the World Economy: “Re-estimating Growth Before 1820 by Jutta Bolt… and Jan Luiten van Zanden (Utrecht University…

…provide[s] an inventory while also critically review the available research… classifying Maddison’s estimates in four groups: a) official estimates… b) historical estimates (that is, estimates produced by economic historians) which roughly follow the same method as the official ones and are based on a broad range of data and information; c) historical estimates based on indirect proxies… d) ‘guess estimates’….

The pre-industrial era (‘c’ kind estimates). For Europe, we now have a considerable amount of new work… from 1000 to 1800 AD, growth was probably more gradual than what proposed by Maddison; that is, European GDP was significantly higher in the Renaissance (above 1000 PPP 1990 dollars in 1500, against 771 proposed by Maddison); hence, growth was slower in the following three centuries (1500-1800), while faster in the late middle ages (1000-1500). For Asia, the new (and in some cases very detailed) estimates available for some regions of India (Bengal) and China (the Yangzi Delta), for Indonesia and Java, and for Japan, confirm Maddison’s view of the great divergence, against Pomeranz revisionist approach: in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, a significant gap between Europe and Asia was already present…. New long-run estimates are presented also for the Near East, as well as for the Roman world…. The authors also signal the presence of estimates for ancient Mesopotamia… a bit below that of the Roman empire (600 PPP 1990 dollars per year, versus 700), but they are not included in the dataset….

As pointed out by Gregory Clark, in his 2009 Review of Maddison’s famous Contours of the World Economy:

All the numbers Maddison estimates for the years before 1820 are fictions, as real as the relics peddled around Europe in the Middle Ages […] Just as in the Middle Ages, there was a ready market for holy relics to lend prestige to the cathedrals and shrines of Europe […], so among modern economists there is a hunger by the credulous for numbers, any numbers however dubious their provenance, to lend support to the model of the moment. Maddison supplies that market….

We are comparing economies of distant times under the assumption that differences in the cost of living remained unchanged over centuries, or even over millennia. This problem, not at all a minor neither a new one − e.g. Prados de la Escosura (2000) − is here practically ignored. One indeed may have the feeling that the authors (and Maddison before them) simply don’t care about the parities they use, de facto treating them as if they were at current prices…

Roman Empire GDP Per Capita Map Shows That Romans Were Poorer Than Any Country in 2015 Brilliant Maps

Economic rents are rising, and it matters who receives them

BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink.

The lack of competition in the U.S. economy is of growing concern to policymakers, if recent moves from the White House are any indication. While policymakers are still thinking through exactly how to spur competition, we should also think about some of the trends underlying the decrease in competition. In a newly released brief, the Council of Economic Advisers highlights how “common ownership” of companies through index funds and other funds by asset managers could affect competition. We shouldn’t focus just on the creation of economic rents through this channel, but also the distribution of these rents.

Take, for example, a recent column by Gretchen Morgenson of The New York Times about BlackRock, the asset management company, and how its stated goals about executive compensation compare to the company’s actual votes on compensation. The firm has been very willing—at a 96.2 percent rate to be exact—to back up management compensation plans despite its noted advocacy for long-term thinking.

As Morgenson notes, this is seemingly at conflict with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s call for focusing more on “creating value for long-term stockholders” instead of “tricks that reward short-term stock traders … like share buybacks purchased at high valuations.” But perhaps we should consider the debate as less about short-term vs. long-term and, as Matt Levine of Bloomberg View puts it, more as “a debate about who should allocate capital: Corporate managers, or investment managers.”

Now, here’s how that fits into both the creation of rents and their distribution as well. As markets become more concentrated and leading firms get more rents (in the form of excess profits), those rents have to go to someone. If we think of the debate in Levine’s terms, then the short-termism debate really becomes not just about the allocation of capital but the allocation of rents as well. If asset managers are more passive, then that will tend to empower executives who can increase their own compensation, especially in light of low top marginal tax rates. This kind of capital and rent allocation leads to increased executive pay as rents flow within a firm up the corporate ladder.

But in a more “short-term” world, rents may not be distributed within the firm but rather pushed out of it in an effort to “disgorge the cash.” We can see this actually happening with the increased share buybacks, which we can think of as sending higher rents out of the firm and to shareholders. Yet the increased share price would also benefit executives who are compensated in the form of stock options—they would just be benefiting as shareholders and not as executives.

These rents could also flow, of course, to other workers inside the firm. As firms have increased their market power, the rents they gained may be shared with their workers in some way. This rent sharing may be a key reason for the rise in inter-firm inequality, a major reason for the rise of income inequality as a number of papers have highlighted.

It’s obvious that all of these forms of rent distribution are happening in the United States and are all increasing, to varying extents. But while we don’t know which effects are most prominent, it’s clear that they all increase income inequality. With the decline in competitiveness also linked to a decline in business investment and weakness in the macroeconomy, it seems that busting up some modern-day trusts may not only fight inequality but help boost growth as well.