Should-Read: Greg Leiserson: U.S. Inequality and Recent Tax Changes

Should-Read: Greg Leiserson: U.S. Inequality and Recent Tax Changes: “Distribution tables provide a first-order approximation to the change in welfare…

…Change in welfare determined primarily by changes outside the agent’s control: mechanical change in tax and changes in relative prices:

  • Behavioral changes have no first-order impact on the well-being of the person changing behavior
    (envelope theorem)
  • Recipe for constructing distribution tables that are informative about welfare:
    • compute change in tax liabilities and relative price effects (i.e. incidence assumptions)
    • exclude behavioral changes reflecting unconstrained, rational choice
    • include other behavioral changes (easier said than done, esp. when there are quantitatively
      important market failures)
  • Converting dollar change in after-tax income into utility requires an assumption about the marginal utility of income (e.g. 1/after-tax income)
    • Conceptual difference between individual or family’s marginal utility and social welfare weights
      used to evaluate redistributive policies
  • Policymakers’ desire for distribution tables may not reflect an ex ante desire for information about
    welfare impacts, but plausible that the desire for tables excluding behavioral changes/sample families is
    an implicit recognition that those changes are different…

Should-Read: Marshall Steinbaum: A tweetstorm on the recent intellectual history of monopsony

Should-Read: If fast-food restaurants in the Susquehanna Valley have substantial monopoly power in the labor market—and it really looks like they do—what employers do not? Galbraith on labor unions as countervailing power in conditions of oligopoly did not, IMHO, go nearly far enough: Marshall Steinbaum: A tweetstorm on the recent intellectual history of monopsony: “Oh, one last thing: in… 2010… Syverson touched on the Chicago revolution in antitrust…

…and why it displaced the SCP paradigm, and he said antitrust was where the ideological right wing of economics had been most influential on policy. And I thought “that sounds fishy. Let’s put a pin in that and get back to it.” Well here we are. I’M BACK:

Should-Read: Gauti Eggertsson, Jacob A. Robbins, and Ella Getz Wold: Kaldor and Piketty’s Facts: The Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States

Should-Read: Very good paper. Nevertheless, the rise in monopoly seems to be primarily a post-2000 fact; the rise in inequality, by contrast, is mostly a late 1980s and 1990s fact. So I am not sure that this is the right tree to bark up: Gauti Eggertsson, Jacob A. Robbins, and Ella Getz Wold: Kaldor and Piketty’s Facts: The Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States: “The macroeconomic data of the last thirty years has overturned at least two of Kaldor’s famous stylized growth facts: constant interest rates, and a constant labor share…

…At the same time, the research of Piketty and others has introduced several new and surprising facts: an increase in the financial wealth-to-output ratio in the US, an increase in measured Tobin’s Q, and a divergence between the marginal and the average return on capital. In this paper, we argue that these trends can be explained by an increase in market power and pure profits in the US economy, i.e., the emergence of a non-zero-rent economy, along with forces that have led to a persistent long term decline in real interest rates. We make three parsimonious modifications to the standard neoclassical model to explain these trends. Using recent estimates of the increase in markups and the decrease in real interest rates, we show that our model can quantitatively match these new stylized macroeconomic facts….

  1. (P1) An increase in the financial wealth-to-income ratio despite low savings rates, with a stagnating capital-to-income ratio.
  2. (P2) An increase in Tobin’s Q to a level permanently above 1.
  3. (P3) A decrease in the real rate of interest, while the measured average
    return on capital is relatively constant.
  4. (P4)An increase in the pure profit share, with a decrease in the capital and labor share.
  5. (P5) A decrease in investment-to-output, even given historically low borrowing costs and a high value of empirical Tobin’s Q….

The primary goal of this paper is to pursue the hypothesis that changes in monopoly profits, along with forces that have pushed down the natural rate of interest, have been the main driver of a variety of macroeconomic changes over the past forty years. There are a number of reasons why we argue for this hypothesis:
1. there is a wide variety of confirmatory evidence that concentration, profits, and markups have increased over the time period, while the natural rate of interest has decreased
2. it is parsimonious, in the sense that we use two data series (markups and interest rates) to explain the movements of 5 separate trends
3. our model does not generate counterfactual implications…


Factor Shares Wealth, Capital, and Gross Value Added Tobin s Q Return on Capital Factor Shares Net Investment Markup Estimates

https://www.icloud.com/keynote/0qVxYidBYm_QEQ_3VwbCCQPiA

Should-Read: Janelle Shane: Do neural nets dream of electric sheep?

Should-Read: Janelle Shane: Do neural nets dream of electric sheep?: “Neural network[s]… used for everything from language translation to finance modeling. One of their specialties is image recognition…

…make really bizarre mistakes…. They can find sheep easily in fields and mountainsides, but as soon as sheep start showing up in weird places, it becomes obvious how much the algorithms rely on guessing and probabilities. Bring sheep indoors, and they’re labeled as cats. Pick up a sheep (or a goat) in your arms, and they’re labeled as dogs. Paint them orange, and they become flowers…. And if goats climb trees, they become birds. Or possibly giraffes. (It turns out that Microsoft Azure is somewhat notorious for seeing giraffes everywhere due to a rumored overabundance of giraffes in the original dataset)….

Neural networks match patterns. They see patches of furlike texture, a bunch of green, and conclude that there are sheep. If they see fur and kitchen shapes, it may conclude instead that there are cats. If life plays by the rules, image recognition works well. But as soon as people-or sheep-do something unexpected, the algorithms show their weaknesses.

Weekend reading: “Gluts, booms, and crashes” edition

This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth published this week and the second is the work we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

Equitable Growth round-up

The latest in the Equitable Growth Working Paper series is research on who becomes an inventor in the United States. The paper, funded in part by Equitable Growth, looks at how differences in family background affect which American children go on to become inventors.

What have economists learned about the cycle of boom and crashes in the wake of the Great Recession? Summarizing empirical and theoretical research from the past few years, a new paper lays out the case for the importance of the “credit-driven household demand channel.”

Looking back at President Trump’s first State of the Union address, Heather Boushey highlights research on the challenges families face in the modern economy and how it matches up to the President’s proposals.

Links from around the web

Michael Gee looks at troubling data from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. He wonders why so few executives, especially in the tech sector, are women or people of color. [hbr]

How low can the unemployment rate fall before inflation really picks up? As Neil Irwin writes, economists just don’t know and yet it’s the biggest question in U.S. monetary policy these days. [the upshot]

Speaking of monetary policy, former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke interviews former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen about her time at the Fed and much more. [brookings]

The United States currently runs an investment income surplus with the rest of the world, as the income earned from U.S. investment abroad is higher than the investment income earned by foreigners in the United States. Brad Setser writes about how this surplus is likely to decline soon, making the U.S. current account deficit even larger. [cfr]

A new study, Caitlin Dewey reports, finds that the maximum pre-meal benefit available from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program is lower than the average price of meals bought by low-income households in 99 percent of U.S. counties. [wonkblog]

Friday figure

Figure from “Presentation: U.S. Inequality and Recent Tax Changes,” by Greg Leiserson

For families, concern is not enough

Watching President Trump’s State of the Union address last month and noting his recent budget submission, I was struck by the chasm between the concern he expressed for American families and the paucity of the ideas in that speech and his recent budget for addressing their serious challenges.

“There has never been a better time to start living the American dream,” he said, and referred to our future as “one American family.” But what is his administration doing or proposing for actual American families? And does the research on the challenges they face back these ideas or an alternative path?

It is increasingly difficult for modern families to address day-in and day-out conflicts between their work and home lives. In addition to too-little wage growth for too many workers, there are specific family-related issues that must concern all of us, including workers’ lack of access to paid medical and family leave; the ever-rising cost and limited availability of quality child care; the increasing incidence of work schedule instability; and the pay gap that continues to disadvantage women, particularly women of color.

Considerable research shows that addressing these conflicts between work and life makes the U.S. economy stronger. For example, economists find that weak work-family policies in the U.S. significantly contributed to a decline in women’s labor force participation in recent years, a trend that also harms U.S. economic performance and growth.

Let’s take the above issues one at a time and consider what the President said, what is being done by Congress and the administration, and what could actually help America’s families.

To address the stubbornness of wages, the President is relying mainly on the indirect effects of slashing corporate taxes. But so far, as with past corporate tax cuts, the benefits are going largely to the wealthy in the form of higher dividends and share buy-backs. Very little has trickled down. Splashy press releases aside, it may be that the gradual tightening of the labor market is finally beginning to yield higher wages. We’ll see.

One effect of the tax cuts we have not had to wait for: the Administration is proposing reductions to domestic programs that will mostly affect working families and retirees. Why? To address the budget deficits created by their tax cuts. And then there are regulatory changes like the replacement of the Obama-era rule stating that the tips workers earn belong to them. These workers, mostly women, generally are modest earners, and research shows they generally have very low rates of employer-provided benefits and are twice as likely to live in poverty. Letting them keep their tips—tips that most of us believe we’re giving to the worker for good service—should be noncontroversial, but the Department of Labor is proposing to allow employers to control those tips and distribute them as they wish, even using the tips for capital improvements. It’s no wonder DOL has held back an analysis of how much money this would cost workers.

The modern American family desperately needs a federal paid leave program that gives workers paid time off for the birth or adoption of a child, the illness of a child or other close family member, or the worker’s own serious illness without sacrificing financial security. President Trump mentioned this, his daughter supports it, and his budget includes a barebones plan.

Sadly, that plan is wholly inadequate. It brings to mind the old complaint about a restaurant where the food is terrible – and the portions are so small. The plan takes funds from states’ already-strapped unemployment insurance funds, which should be unacceptable to begin with – to pay for a paid leave program that does nothing for workers with sick children or other family members, or for workers who become seriously ill themselves, and provides an insufficient benefit for a family with a new child.

We should look to the states and adopt what has worked there: a program that utilizes existing social insurance programs (Social Security at the federal level) and is funded by a small payroll tax paid by some combination of employers and workers. Research shows these programs support families and businesses alike. Businesses are able to retain valuable workers instead of losing them permanently because they can’t afford to pay them during their times of need.

Finding affordable, quality childcare is a problem that faces nearly every modern working family. And the cost of quality care could be having a serious impact on the U.S. economy. The current set of federal programs and tax breaks provide important help, but quality, availability, and cost of childcare are still major issues for millions of families and are affecting the U.S. labor supply. Unfortunately, this problem went unmentioned in the State of the Union. There is no shortage of ideas for strengthening the programmatic and tax support we provide to workers facing the childcare dilemma. Now is the time to act.

A growing challenge facing workers is schedule instability – unpredictable work hours that make it difficult to impossible to plan child care and family life. We need to look for ways to protect these workers, while ensuring that companies have a reliable workforce.

An important scheduling issue that the President did not mention and is actually exacerbating is excessive or uncompensated overtime. Fewer and fewer workers are covered by the Federal Labor Standards Act requirement that employers pay time-and-a-half for overtime. The Obama administration sought to restore overtime for millions of workers by increasing the salary employers must pay before they can avoid paying overtime, but the Trump administration killed that rule, thus subjecting millions of workers to continuing undercompensated overtime. These workers, and their families, need the protection the FLSA was meant to provide.

Another significant scheduling issue facing low-wage workers in the service and retail industries in particular is unpredictable schedules. For many of these workers, schedules can change day-to-day, or even hour-to-hour, without warning. New policies should, at a minimum, require that employers, not workers, bear the costs of last-minute shift scheduling decisions, and bar employers from retaliating against workers who express concern about their schedules. This is a growing problem among workers facing serious economic challenges, and we need to make it a high priority.

Finally, the administration rarely discusses the gender pay gap. Women, who make up 51 percent of the U.S. workforce, earn on average 80 percent of what men earn—and women of color tend to earn even less. While research on the causes continues, current U.S. programs, labor laws, and institutions, as suggested above, do not do nearly enough to address the various ways in which women are held back at work. Women are disproportionately affected by the shortcomings of current policies and programs that should help parents balance work and family responsibilities. Boosting women’s economic outcomes by addressing these issues would improve worker productivity and therefore the U.S. economy.

The problems I’ve outlined here are both a reflection of and causes of the growing inequality in our economy and society. Research increasingly shows that inequality is a drag on the economy – so these issues are important to all Americans. I don’t expect this administration, or this Congress, to do a 180-degree turn and begin supporting families and workers. But I hope that we can look forward to these kinds of changes in the future.

Should-Read: Kenneth Rogoff: Economists vs. Scientists on Long-Term Growth

Should-Read: A few comments: (1) Ken, Trump or Trump’s advisors have been reading John Cochrane—that is where “6% growth” is getting into the Republican intellectual swamp. (2) True “AI”—the science fiction kind—is still as far off as ever: “AI” today is (a) hype to remove investors from their money, (b) pattern recognition, and (c) voice interfaces for database search where it is no longer jarring for humans to deal with them as if they understood what was being asked of them, and that works only as long as they remain in their very restricted domain. (b) and (c) are not and will not be for the next decade at least things that show themselves in the aggregate productivity statistics. Those of us who know the economic history well know that the technology leads the leading firms that apply it by a generation, and the leading firms lead the macro impact by a generation. And technology “demonstrations” are not technology: Hiero of Alexandria’s second-century aeropile was not a useful steam engine: Kenneth Rogoff: Economists vs. Scientists on Long-Term Growth: “Most economic forecasters have largely shrugged off recent advances in artificial intelligence…

…If supply-side pessimism is appropriate, the recent massive tax and spending packages in the United States will likely do much more to raise inflation than to boost investment. There are plenty of reasons to object to recent US fiscal policy…. We live in an era of rising inequality and falling income shares for labor relative to capital. Governments need to do more, not less, to redistribute income and wealth.

It is hard to know what US President Donald Trump is thinking when he boasts that his policies will deliver up to 6% growth….

Economists’ pessimism… is underpinned by the belief that advanced economies cannot hope to repeat the dynamism that the US enjoyed from 1995-2005 (and other advanced economies a bit later), much less the salad days of the 1950s and 1960s. But the doubters ought to consider the fact that many scientists, across many disciplines, see things differently. Young researchers, in particular, believe that advances in basic knowledge are coming as fast as ever, even if practical applications are taking a long time to develop…. Perhaps we should be far more worried about the ethical and social implications of material growth that is faster than humans can spiritually absorb. The angst over AI mostly focuses on inequality and the future of work. But as science fiction writers have long warned us, the potential threats arising from the birth of silicon-based “life” forms are truly frightening….

The influx of women into the labor force played a major role in boosting growth in the latter part of the twentieth century. But now that has largely played out…. Similarly, global investment has collapsed since the 2008 financial crisis…. And measured productivity growth has declined everywhere….

Still, the best bet is that AI and other new technologies will eventually come to have a much larger impact on growth than they have up to now…. With the after-effects of the financial crisis fading, and AI perhaps starting to gain traction, trend US output growth can easily stay strong for the next several years…. The likely corresponding rise in real global interest rates will be tricky for central bankers to navigate. In the best case, they will be able to “ride the wave,” as Alan Greenspan famously did in the 1990s, though more inflation is likely this time. The bottom line is that neither policymakers nor markets should be betting on the slow growth of the past decade carrying over…

Should-Read: Andrew Carnegie (1889): Wealth

Should-Read: Andrew Carnegie (1889): Wealth: “The problem of our age is the proper administration of wealth…

…To-day the world obtains commodities of excellent quality at prices which even the generation preceding this would have deemed incredible… and the race is benefited thereby. The poor enjoy what the rich could not before afford. What were the luxuries have become the necessaries of life. The laborer has now more comforts than the landlord had a few generations ago….

The price we pay for this salutary change is, no doubt, great. We assemble thousands of operatives in the factory, in the mine, and in the counting-house, of whom the employer can know little or nothing, and to whom the employer is little better than a myth. All intercourse between them is at an end. Rigid Castes are formed, and, as usual, mutual ignorance breeds mutual distrust. Each Caste is without sympathy for the other, and ready to credit anything disparaging in regard to it. Under the law of competition, the employer of thousands is forced into the strictest economies, among which the rates paid to labor figure prominently, and often there is friction between the employer and the employed, between capital and labor, between rich and poor. Human society loses homogeneity.

The price which society pays for the law of competition… is also great…. It is here; we cannot evade it; no substitutes for it have been found; and while the law may be sometimes hard for the individual, it is best for the race, because it insures the survival of the fittest in every department.

We accept and welcome therefore, as conditions to which we must accommodate ourselves, great inequality of environment, the concentration of business, industrial and commercial, in the hands of a few, and the law of competition between these, as being not only beneficial, but essential…. The experienced in affairs always rate the MAN whose services can be obtained as a partner as not only the first consideration, but such as to render the question of his capital scarcely worth considering, for such men soon create capital; while, without the special talent required, capital soon takes wings…. It is inevitable that their income must exceed their expenditures, and that they must accumulate wealth. Nor is there any middle ground which such men can occupy, because the great manufacturing or commercial concern which does not earn at least interest upon its capital soon becomes bankrupt. It, must either go forward or fall behind: to stand still is impossible. It is a condition essential for its successful operation that it should be thus far profitable, and even that, in addition to interest on capital, it should make profit…. Objections to the foundations upon which society is based are not in order, because the condition of the race is better with these than it has been with any others which have been tried….

There are but three modes in which surplus wealth can be disposed of: It call be left to the families of the decedents; or it can be bequeathed for public purposes; or, finally, it can be administered during their lives by its possessors….

There are instances of millionaires’ sons unspoiled by wealth…. Unfortunately, they are rare…. It is not the exception, but the rule, that men must regard, and, looking at the usual result of enormous sums conferred upon legatees, the thoughtful man must shortly say, “I would as soon leave to my son a curse as the almighty dollar”….

As to the second mode, that of leaving wealth at death for public uses…. Men who leave vast sums in this way may fairly be thought men who would not have left it at all, had they been able to take it with them….The growing disposition to tax more and more heavily large estates left at death is a cheering indication of the growth of a salutary change in public opinion….

The true antidote for the temporary unequal distribution of wealth, the reconciliation of the rich and the poor–a reign of harmony–another ideal, differing, indeed, from that of the Communist in requiring only the further evolution of existing conditions, not the total overthrow of our civilization….

The surplus wealth of the few will become, in the best sense the property of the many, because administered for the common good, and this wealth, passing through the hands of the few, can be made a much more potent force for the elevation of our race….

This, then, is held to be the duty of the man of Wealth….

  1. to set an example of modest, unostentatious living, shunning display or extravagance;

  2. to provide moderately for the legitimate wants of those dependent upon him;
    and

  3. after doing so to consider all surplus revenues which come to him simply as trust funds, which he is called upon to administer, and strictly bound as a matter of duty to administer in the manner which, in his judgment, is best calculated to produce the most beneficial results for the community–the man of wealth thus becoming the mere agent and trustee for his poorer brethren, bringing to their service his superior wisdom, experience and ability to administer…

Should-Read: Tim Duy: Fed Changing Its Tune

Should-Read: Tim Duy: Fed Changing Its Tun: “Julia Coronado of Macropolicy Perspectives catches the topic of Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard’s speech next week…

…“Navigating Monetary Policy as Headwinds Shift to Tailwinds.”… That’s kind of hitting us over the heads to prepare ourselves for changes in the forecasts and the statement…. Yes, inflation is below the 2 percent target, so on this surface this change in tone seems ludicrous. But the median policy maker forecast in the most recent Summary of Economic Projections is also quite frankly ludicrous. Those forecasts indicate growth well above potential growth in 2018 yet only a small decline in the unemployment rate. And stabilizing unemployment in 2019 with yet another year of growth above potential. And the inflation rate only returns to 2 percent when the temporary factors lift, but by the Fed’s Phillips curve approach the beyond-full employment economy should be much more inflationary when those factors lift, well above the 2 percent target. It all screams for a faster than 3 rate hike pace in 2018, but that was the median policy maker forecast.

I tend to think, and have thought for a long time, that the forecast was essentially reverse engineered as much as possible to keep the rate forecast at three hikes in 2018. Now, with the additional tailwinds sustaining momentum in the economy, they can no longer maintain this façade. Hence the change to the threat of “overheating.” Bottom Line: I don’t think this is just about three or four hikes. It strikes me as something bigger, a more fundamental change in the policy objective…

Should-Read: John Maynard Keynes (1931): Essays in Persuasion

Should-Read: John Maynard Keynes (1931): Essays in Persuasion: “Here are collected the croakings of twelve years—the croakings of a Cassandra who could never influence the course of events in time…

…The volume might have been entitled “Essays in Prophecy and Persuasion,” for the Prophecy, unfortunately, has been more successful than the Persuasion. But it was in a spirit of persuasion that most of these essays were written, in an attempt to influence opinion. They were regarded at the time, many of them, as extreme and reckless utterances. But I think that the reader, looking through them to-day, will admit that this was because they often ran directly counter to the overwhelming weight of contemporary sentiment and opinion, and not because of their character in themselves.

On the contrary, I feel—reading them again, though I am a prejudiced witness—that they contain more understatement than overstatement, as judged by after-events. That this should be their tendency, is a natural consequence of the circumstances in which they were written. For I wrote many of these essays painfully conscious that a cloud of witnesses would rise up against me and very few in my support, and that I must, therefore, be at great pains to say nothing which I could not substantiate. I was constantly on my guard—as I well remember, looking back—to be as moderate as my convictions and the argument would permit.

All this applies to the first three of the five books into which these essays naturally group themselves, rather than to the last two; that is to say, to the three great controversies of the past decade, into which I plunged myself without reserve,—the Treaty of Peace and the War Debts, the Policy of Deflation, and the Return to the Gold Standard, of which the last two, and indeed in some respects all three, were closely interconnected. In these essays the author was in a hurry, desperately anxious to convince his audience in time.

But in the last two books time’s chariots make a less disturbing noise. The author is looking into the more distant future, and is ruminating matters which need a slow course of evolution to determine them. He is more free to be leisurely and philosophical.

And here emerges more clearly what is in truth his central thesis throughout,—the profound conviction that the Economic Problem, as one may call it for short, the problem of want and poverty and the economic struggle between classes and nations, is nothing but a frightful muddle, a transitory and an unnecessary muddle. For the Western World already has the resources and the technique, if we could create the organisation to use them, capable of reducing the Economic Problem, which now absorbs our moral and material energies, to a position of secondary importance.

Thus the author of these essays, for all his croakings, still hopes and believes that the day is not far off when the Economic Problem will take the back seat where it belongs, and that the arena of the heart and head will be occupied, or re-occupied, by our real problems—the problems of life and of human relations, of creation and behaviour and religion. And it happens that there is a subtle reason drawn from economic analysis why, in this case, faith may work. For if we consistently act on the optimistic hypothesis, this hypothesis will tend to be realised; whilst by acting on the pessimistic hypothesis we can keep ourselves for ever in the pit of want…