ASSA 2025 Round-up: Day 3

Yesterday was the third and final day of the 2025 annual meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations, which is organized by the American Economic Association. The 3-day conference, held in San Francisco, California, this year, features hundreds of sessions covering a wide variety of economics and other social science research. Equitable Growth’s vast academic network, including grantees and Nonresident Scholars, and our Steering Committee are well-represented throughout this year’s program, featured in at least 62 different sessions of the conference.

Below are lightly edited abstracts from some of the papers and presentations that caught the attention of Equitable Growth staff during the third day of this year’s conference, with links to the sessions in which the papers were presented. Many of these papers are closely related to the research areas we are interested in funding.

Check out highlights from Day 1 here and Day 2 here.

“Transgender Earnings Gaps in the United States: Evidence from Administrative Data”

Christopher S. Carpenter, Vanderbilt University; Lucas Goodman, U.S. Department of the Treasury; Maxine Lee, San Francisco State University

Abstract: We provide the first evidence on transgender earnings effects in the United States using administrative data on more than 55,000 individuals who changed their gender marker with the Social Security Administration and had gender-consistent first name changes on tax records. The transgender sample has increased in size over time and has younger female-to-male than male-to-female transitions, both consistent with true gender affirmations. A within-person panel design and a siblings design both return evidence of a transgender earnings penalty of 6 to 12 log points.

“The Scarring Effects of Workplace Sexual Harassment”

Nisha Chikhale, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Equitable Growth grantee; Natalie Duncombe, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Birthe Larsen, Copenhagen Business School

Abstract: We document new facts about the sources and consequences of sexual harassment in the workplace using administrative and survey data from Denmark. We estimate that following workplace sexual harassment, victims see earnings losses. Losses are higher when workplace harassment is due to co-workers rather than clients and for those who move jobs. We also find that labor market tightness plays a key role in an individual’s ability to escape workplace sexual harassment. We then incorporate workplace sexual harassment into a labor search model and examine the degree to which labor market friction affects the cost of workplace sexual harassment. We use the model to analyze policies targeted at reducing workplace sexual harassment in the presence of labor market frictions.

Note: This research was funded in part by Equitable Growth.

“Consumption and Employment Responses to Beliefs about Student Loan Repayment”

Dmitri Koustas, University of Chicago, Equitable Growth grantee; Michael Weber, University of Chicago, Equitable Growth contributing author; Constantine Yannelis, University of Chicago

Abstract: Government statements about future actions can influence agents’ economic choices today. How do beliefs about future government policy affect households’ borrowing, spending, and debt-paydown behavior? We study this through the lens of student loan forgiveness, which, following electoral promises, was announced in 2022 but never implemented due to judicial rulings. We conduct a novel survey eliciting beliefs about future debt forgiveness and repayment. We document considerable heterogeneity in beliefs and show that households act on these beliefs: Those most optimistic about future forgiveness are less likely to make student loan payments. They also delay durable purchases, consistent with optimistic households waiting for uncertainty to resolve. Our results provide micro-evidence on the role of policy uncertainty in household decision-making and have implications for forward guidance through fiscal policy.

“Job Displacement and Gender Inequality in the Distribution of Earning Losses”

Afrouz Azadikhah Jahromi, Widener University, Equitable Growth 2022 AEA summer economics fellow

Abstract: Displaced workers experience long spells of unemployment and persistent changes in their earnings, compared to nondisplaced workers. Analyzing the effects of involuntary job separation on labor market outcomes has drawn the attention of labor economists and policymakers for decades, and prior research has studied this matter extensively. Most research in this area has focused on men or briefly discussed women’s experiences. Yet the effects of job loss are more severe and long-lasting for women. On the other hand, not many studies focus on the gender disparities in the earning losses after job displacement, and none of them investigate the gender inequality in the distribution of earning losses after involuntary job loss in the United States. Distributional treatment effect analysis is important to understand how men and women respond differently across the earning distribution to a labor market shock such as job displacement. It can also be helpful to learn more about gender inequality in the labor market more broadly. Displaced workers at the top of the earnings distribution may not experience the same loss as those at the lower tail. A significant negative impact at the higher end indicates reduced wages for displaced workers finding similarly high-paying jobs, while a pronounced effect at the lower end signals a risk of prolonged unemployment or low-wage work. This study analyzes gender differences in the distribution of earning losses upon job displacement and answers how women’s responses vary across the earning distribution, compared to men, and how decomposing this gap enhances our understanding of gender inequality in the labor market. We extend the job displacement analysis by estimating the distributional effect on weekly earnings for U.S. women to capture heterogeneity across the earnings distribution. The second contribution focuses on the gender disparity in earnings loss distribution among displaced men and women.

“The EITC and Intergenerational Mobility”

Randall Akee, University of California, Los Angeles, Equitable Growth grantee; Maggie R. Jones, U.S. Census Bureau; Emilia Simeonova, Johns Hopkins University

Abstract: The effects of public policy on intergenerational social and economic mobility in the United States are not well-understood. We study how the largest federal tax-based policy intended to promote work and increase incomes among the poor—the Earned Income Tax Credit—affects the socioeconomic standing of children who grew up in households affected by the policy. Using the universe of tax filer records for children linked to their parents and demographic and household information from Census demographic data, we exploit exogenous differences by children’s ages in the births and “aging out” of siblings to assess the causal effect of EITC generosity on child outcomes—specifically, upward mobility in the child income distribution. Our findings suggest significant and mostly positive effects of more generous EITC refunds on the next generation that vary substantially depending on the age at first exposure to increased Earned Income Tax Credits and the duration of exposure. Evidence also suggests that exposure to more generous EITC refunds strengthens labor force attachment.

“The Distributional Effects of Firm Demand Changes: Evidence from U.S. Linked Worker-Owner Data”

Sean Wang, U.S. Census Bureau; Samuel Young, Arizona State University, Equitable Growth grantee

Abstract: In this paper, we estimate which individuals benefit when firm demand increases and whether these are the same individuals who bear the costs when firms do poorly. We use novel linked worker-owner administrative data from the United States. Specifically, we use data covering the universe of pass-through firms in the United States to identify each firm’s workers and owners and measure their total compensation from the firm. We link these data to quasi-experimental, firm-specific demand shocks to estimate the distributional effects of these shocks. This analysis extends our understanding of how demand shocks affect workers and owners in three ways. First, by observing who receives each dollar of firm surplus, we open the black box of who the owners are and analyze the full distributional impact of firm-specific demand changes. For example, we calculate the share of the gains from these shocks that goes to each part of the income distribution. Second, the linked worker-owner data allows us to analyze whether the unequal distributional effects of demand changes are symmetric for positive versus negative shocks. Specifically, we analyze whether owners also bear most of the risk of negative shocks. Third, since we can identify all workers and owners, we test for asymmetry in which demographic groups bear the benefits and costs of demand changes (e.g., by race/ethnicity and gender). (Results pending Census disclosure)

Note: This research was funded in part by Equitable Growth.

“Management Practices, Workplace Injuries, and the Effects of Safety Regulations”

Matthew Johnson, Duke University, Equitable Growth grantee; Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University; David Levine, University of California, Berkeley, Equitable Growth grantee; Alison Pei, Duke University

Abstract: Workplace injuries are a massive economic burden, yet they persist across a wide range of workplaces. Why? Reducing injury risk entails financial and opportunity cost, but it may also require adoption of management practices that are slow to diffuse. Linking confidential data from the Census Bureau with data on workplace injuries, we find that establishments with more structured management practices (monitoring production, setting targets, and establishing incentives) have substantially lower injury rates—a relationship that holds within industries and within establishments over time. We then examine how this variation in management influences the effects of government safety regulations on workers and firms. Enforcement inspections by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration reduce injuries but only at establishments with few structured management practices; the effect on well-managed workplaces is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Inspections also lead establishments to adopt more structured management practices. Inspections have no detectable effect on establishment survival, investment, or productivity.