Evening Must-Read: Cardiff Garcia: One Reason US Autos Have Bounced Back Faster than Housing

One reason the US auto market has bounced back faster than housing FT Alphaville

Cardiff Garcia: One reason the US auto market has bounced back faster than housing: “It’s only one of several reasons, of course…

…as housing is a much bigger source of wealth and collateral for households and was obviously devastated in the crisis (hurting the middle class and poorest Americans the hardest). But the simple point here is that both of these markets have had some favourable underlying demand-side pressures building in the last few years…. Access to car loans has been relatively less constrained than access to single-family mortgages, which is part of the explanation… for why auto sales have recovered like this… while single-family home sales have looked like this:

Preview of Evening Must Read Cardiff Garcia One Reason US Autos Have Bounced Back Faster than Housing

The Consensus Is That Tim Geithner’s Blocking of Mortgage Foreclosure Relief Was His Biggest Unforced Error as U.S. Treasury Secretary: Wednesday Focus: May 14, 2014

The frustrating thing about Geithner’s Stress Test is that he doesn’t explain why he took the housing policy positions he did when he did, and why he made the housing personnel decisions he did when he did. Instead, he jumps from claim to incompatible claim about his housing policy.

Thus we are left with Glenn Hubbard’s reaction to the housing policy discussion in Stress Test:

About housing… I must say I split my side in laughter because Tim Geithner personally and actively opposed mortgage refinancing…. And now he’s claiming this would be a great idea…

And David Dayen’s reaction to the housing policy discussion in Stress Test:

The guy who handed hundreds of billions of dollars over to banks with basically no strings attached [was] suddenly worried about fairness when homeowners get a break on their mortgage payments…. Even as he says in the book “I wish we had expanded our housing programs earlier,” he completely contradicts that to Andrew Ross Sorkin, saying [that his own] statement is “unicorny”…

And Amir Sufi and Atif Mian’s reaction to the housing policy discussion in Stress Test:

Multiplying $700 billion by 0.18 gives us a spending boost to the economy in 2009 of $126 billion, which is 1.3% of PCE, 10 times larger than the estimate Secretary Geithner asserted in his book. So Mr. Geithner is off by an order of magnitude…

Continue reading “The Consensus Is That Tim Geithner’s Blocking of Mortgage Foreclosure Relief Was His Biggest Unforced Error as U.S. Treasury Secretary: Wednesday Focus: May 14, 2014”

Thomas Piketty’s big book: What do you really need to know?

(Heather Boushey, executive director and senior economist for the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, appeared on the PBS News Hour on May 13 alongside Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute and moderator Gwen Ifill of PBS to debate the importance of Thomas Piketty’s new best-selling book “Capital in the 21st Century.” Her column below encapsulates her views on the book as discussed on the show. You can find her review of the book here.)

People continue to ask me what they need to know about economist Thomas Piketty’s 700-page tome, “Capital in the 21st Century.” I read the book, which is genuinely engaging, and I recommend you do the same. But I get that it’s a big, academic book with quite a few economic equations, so let me give you a simple answer for what you need to know.

What I learned from reading Piketty is that he has an impressive treasure trove of data (much of it compiled with his co-authors) and the data show that today’s income inequality is calcifying into tomorrow’s wealth inequality, which has serious implications for economic growth, the possibility of the everyday Americans moving up the income ladder, and our democracy.

The importance of Piketty’s perspective comes from his attention to two often-overlooked ways of understanding modern economies. The first is his focus on understanding how income flows become capital stocks. The second is his focus on the trends at the tippity-top of the economic distribution—the top 1 percent—where the biggest accumulations of capital have occurred. Both developments point to the growing economic inequality of the past 40 years devouring our future. This dynamic is troubling indeed for the promise of the American Dream. So let’s look at each of these insights in turn.

Income and capital

When Forbes puts out its new list of the top-earning chief executives, Piketty’s data push us to look not only at their current income, but also how that income will accumulate over time. As an economist, I get that inequality can create an incentive to work harder. Increasing pay for workers with greater skills, talent or effort is good, for a more skilled workforce results in a more productive economy.

But we don’t talk much about how today’s high earners become tomorrow’s propertied elite. Piketty brings back the idea of the “rentier,” the person (or, more likely, the family) whose income comes from their stock of accumulated wealth, through property rents or income from investments. Today’s flow of income becomes tomorrow’s stock of capital in a variety of ways. First, many senior corporate executives and other professionals are paid millions of dollars in salary—much of which they invest—alongside millions more worth of stock options that convert into capital. Second, larger investments tend to earn a higher return because they can accommodate greater risk. If you have more capital, it’s easier to make even more. And finally, large amounts of accumulated capital cannot easily be spent by these investors within in their lifetime, leaving it to their heirs.

Leaving an inheritance isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the children of the very wealthy, but it does mean that a nation’s wealth grows increasingly concentrated among those born into very affluent families. A vibrant economy requires a living workforce with incentives to be the best and create the next big thing—be it the iPhone, the electric car, or the know-how to cure cancer through new genomic discoveries. The opportunity to be the best may well be limited by the concentration of wealth at the very top of society because future inventors will not have the wherewithal to learn and study, invent and start a company. Many Americans boast ancestors who left the Old World because they wanted their chance to make it big; they didn’t want to live in a society dominated by families with “old money.”

Piketty illustrates what happens in a society where capital overwhelmingly trumps labor by pointing to several European novels of the 18th century, where the characters focus on marrying well rather than improving their productive endeavors. Piketty’s data show this is where we’re headed in the United States today. That’s not a recipe for a vibrant economy.

The growing wealth of the wealthiest

Piketty then explores where this wealth is really concentrated. He wants us to recognize that today’s rising inequality isn’t about too many falling behind; it’s about only a few pulling very far ahead—a dynamic that runs counter to how Americans think about inequality. Americans often discuss inequality in terms of “fairness,” which in turn leads policymakers to frame their efforts to foster a more equal society in terms of creating “equality of opportunity.” The American Dream is premised on the idea that anyone can make it to the top of the economic ladder, and much of our political and policy rhetoric is organized around the idea that being born into a low-income family should not prohibit individuals from reaching their highest potential.

What’s more, the idea that there may be something wrong with a few individuals taking in so much of our nation’s income isn’t even on the table because of the belief that “they earned it.” Americans tend to embrace a form of capitalism that is all about risk-taking and the subsequent big pay-off—the reward that incentivizes taking those risks in the first place. Yet Piketty spells out several important reasons to look at the very top and question whether this is the kind of capitalism our economy is fostering today and into the future. He concludes that the vast majority of us are getting a raw deal because the rewards going to the top one percent are not justified by their risk-taking. Paying top dollar is supposed to bring top talent and top productivity, yet Piketty shows that we cannot look to productivity to explain the exceedingly high wages accruing to the top one percent. In fact, he calls doing so “illusory.”

The rise in U.S. inequality stems from increased pay specifically to the top one percent of income earners. As a test, Piketty compares the skills of the top one percent with the next nine percent, who are doing very well relative to the remaining 90 percent of income earners but not so much compared to the top one percent, to see if they differ. They don’t. So skills cannot explain the rise in incomes in the top one percent relative to the next nine percent. There is something else is going on that is not benefiting our economy.

Furthermore, Piketty warns that growing wealth at the very top has nothing to do with skills. It is important to ensure that the children of all Americans have a fair shot at opportunity But given the growing importance of inherited wealth—and the increasingly well-documented importance of both financial capital and human capital that wealthier parents are able to pass on in the form of much better early childhood education, attendance at better primary and secondary schools, important connections when applying to college and those first jobs—what is equality of opportunity?

The Piketty moment

In the two months since Piketty’s book was published in English, economists have been arguing over his central economic premise—the idea that so long as the rate of return to capital, r, is greater than the rate of economic growth, g, then economic inequality will continue to rise. In a recent speech, Jason Furman, the Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, succinctly summarized the nut of the issue: “Intuitively, wealth grows with r while wages grow with g. Thus, as long as the rate of return on capital exceeds the rate of economic growth, income from wealth is greater than that from wages.

That’s the past devouring the future—and it happens because income flows become capital stocks. The central take-away here is that in order to create a vibrant economy and a strong middle class we need to pay attention not only to wages, but also capital. This is being done by Piketty and his colleagues through the sheer breadth and quality of Piketty’s (and his colleagues’) impressive data. Indeed, already Piketty had a ready-made audience for his new book, because it was Piketty’s 2003 paper in the Quarterly Journal of Economics (with Emmanuel Saez) that first made it possible for us to see what was happening in the “top 1 percent.”

Now, “Capital in the 21st Century” expands our knowledge about global inequality. The data alone are a seminal contribution to economics that is a good thing no matter what you think of how he interprets the data.

 

 

Things to Read on the Evening of May 13, 2014

Should-Reads:

  1. Daniel Kruger and Wes Goodman: In Gundlach’s ‘No Normal’ World, Treasuries Can’t Lose: “Jeffrey Gundlach… has a simpler explanation for why investors have gotten the bond market so wrong this year: the aging of America…. This helps explain why the best and brightest erred in calling for a bear market in U.S. bonds–and why benchmark Treasury yields may stay low for years to come, according to Gundlach. ‘That’s one of the reasons why yields are not just going to explode on the upside’, Gundlach, who oversees $50 billion as the co-founder and chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital LP, said in a May 7 interview with Tom Keene from Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York. ‘Part of this equation is the demand for income from the growing number of retirees.’…”

  2. Alec Phillips: Obamacare is good for the economy, Goldman Sachs researcher says: “Alec Phillips, economic researcher at Goldman Sachs, said in a note issued late last week to clients that subsidies from the Affordable Care Act boosted gross domestic product during the first quarter and are likely to do the same during the second quarter…. ‘While we were initially skeptical of the large estimated effect of the new subsidies on personal income, these now look more reasonable to us in light of revisions, greater enrollment than expected several months ago, and the fact that states are likely contributing to the subsidies on top of the well-known estimates of federal costs’, Phillips said…”

Should Be Aware of:

Continue reading “Things to Read on the Evening of May 13, 2014”

The evidence on the minimum wage

Swiss voters earlier this month rejected a referendum to raise the country’s minimum wage to roughly $24 an hour. If the referendum had passed, Switzerland would have had the highest minimum wage in the world.

Closer to home, efforts to raise the minimum wage have fared better. Seattle will raise its minimum wage to $15 an hour, though after inflation the standard will be closer to $14 in purchasing power. Efforts to raise the minimum wage aren’t surprising in an era of slow growing wages and high inequality. But how effective is raising the minimum wage?

Before we get to inequality, we have to address the issue of employment growth. Bring up the prospect of raising the minimum wage and invariably the topic will turn to whether it is a “job killer.” The employment effects of raising the minimum wage is one of the most studied topics in labor economics. And after 20 years of careful empirical research, a consensus appears to be emerging—there is no significant effect on employment after moderate increases in the minimum wage.

The minimum wage doesn’t increase inequality by throwing workers off payrolls, but does it actually reduce income inequality? When looking at the minimum wage, the appropriate measure of inequality to use is the ratio of incomes at the 50th percentile and incomes at the 10th percentile. In principle, the minimum wage would reduce inequality by boosting the wages of those near the 10th percentile up closer to those earning the 50th percentile. And the research has found that to be true: the minimum wage does reduce the ratio.

Economists debate the size of that impact, but recently updated work by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s David Autor, Alan Manning of the London School of Economics and Christopher Smith of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve find that 30 to 50 percent of the rise in low-end inequality was due to the falling minimum wage.

Pushing for an increase in the minimum wage can seem like a stale idea. Advocating for a boost to a policy first created in over 70 years ago doesn’t seem innovative enough. But academic research shows that the policy passes both the test of efficiency (it’s not a significant drag on employment) and equity (it would reduce income inequality).  So we might be best served by sticking with a tried-and-true tool.

Evening Must-Read: John Holbo: Occam’s Phaser?

John Holbo: Occam’s Phaser?: “I’m rereading Nozick’s Anarchy, State and Utopia

…because I got to thinking: what’s wrong with good old fashioned ‘force and fraud’ anyway? Isn’t the Night Watchman state just creeping Soft Tyranny, in Tocqueville’s sense? Plus it’s obviously a moral hazard and generally destructive to private virtue…. He spends a great deal of time answering my question. 150 pages. Why have even a minimal state that secures everyone against force and fraud? I know now that his answer is… really quite complicated and ultimately not altogether clear, despite the fact that Nozick is generally a clear writer. I’m not convinced Nozick really has any right, by his lights, to a full-fledged Night Watchman state. Something more minimal would be more respectful of the individual rights that we are, supposedly, respecting at all costs, seems to me…

“Expanding Economic Opportunity for Women and Families”

Heather Boushey, Executive Director and Chief Economist, Washington Center for Equitable Growth, testifying before the  U.S. Senate Budget Committee  on “Expanding Economic Opportunity for Women and Families”

Enabling Women to Succeed Builds Strong Families and a Growing Economy

I would like to thank Chairman Murray, Ranking Member Sessions, and the rest of the Committee for inviting me here today to testify.

My name is Heather Boushey and I am Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. The Center is a new project devoted to understanding what grows our economy, with a particular emphasis on understanding whether and how rising levels of economic inequality affect economic growth and stability.

It is an honor to be invited here today to discuss how working women are critical for economic growth, and how federal policy can further advance women’s economic progress. My testimony today highlights the many aspects of our economy where gender inequality and economic inequality go hand in hand—to the detriment of many families and our nation’s economy—and also where economic inequality among women threatens family well-being and economic growth. Government policies can address these gaps in order to help women succeed, so our economy can succeed.

There are three takeaways from my testimony:

  • Women, their families, and the economy have greatly benefited from women’s entry into the labor force.
  • Yet there are barriers to women’s work that manifest themselves differently across the income distribution, which means that not all women realize their full economic potential.
  • There are a variety of ways that federal policy can encourage women’s labor force participation, among them tax credits and early childhood education programs, which provide critical support for low-income workers and working families. Federal policies such as pay equity and flexible work-family policies can grow our economy by encouraging greater labor force participation among women and increasing women’s contributions to family income.

Women’s employment is critical for families and the economy

Women’s entry into the labor force is one of the most important transformations to our labor force in recent decades. Between 1970 and 2000, the share of women in the labor force steadily increased, from 43.3 percent to 59.9 percent.[i] Today, most women work full time. Before the Great Recession in 2007, the share of women who worked 35 hours or more per week was 75.3 percent.[ii]

Women’s movement into the labor force also transformed how they spend their days, which is increasingly important for families’ economic wellbeing.  About two-thirds of mothers are family breadwinners—those bringing home all of the family’s earnings or at least as much as their partners—or co-breadwinners—those bringing home at least one-quarter of their families’ earnings.[iii] Between 1967 and 2007, the most recent economic peak, the share of mothers who were breadwinners or co-breadwinners rose from 27.7 percent to 62.8 percent, and has increased slightly since then as the economic recession wore on.[iv] (See Figure 1.)

Figure 1. Share of mothers who are breadwinners or co-breadwinners, 1967 to 2010

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Figure source: Sarah Jane Glynn, The New Breadwinners: 2010 Update (Washington, DC: Center for American Progress, 2012).

Women’s increased work is important for family incomes and for economic growth. In a paper we released last month, my colleagues Eileen Appelbaum, John Schmitt and I find that between 1979 and 2012, our nation’s gross domestic product increased by almost 11 percent due to women’s changed employment patterns.[v] This translates to about $1.7 trillion in output in today’s dollars. We find that women’s economic contribution is roughly equivalent to U.S. spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid in 2012.[vi]

Continuing women’s economic progress

Over the past four decades, women have made great economic gains, but more can be done to help women realize their full economic potential. Gender inequality in the workforce still persists between men and women. Additionally, while some women have made great gains in the workforce, too many women are being left behind.

Between 1960 and 2000, women’s labor force participation steadily grew and the gender pay gap steadily shrank. But progress has stalled for more than a decade. The share of women in the labor force has not significantly increased since 2000, hovering a bit below 60 percent.[vii] Similarly, in 2012 the female-to-male earnings ratio remained at about 77 percent, the same as in 2002.[viii]

To be sure, some women have pulled ahead and experienced increases in incomes despite the recent slow-down in women’s entry in the workforce. But not all women have experienced these gains. Between 2000 and 2007, for example, higher-wage women saw their real wages increase by four times the amount of women with poorly paid jobs.[ix]

One reason is that while some women have made progress entering into professional or male-dominated occupations, many women continue to work in female-dominated occupations that still pay low wages. In 2012, 43.6 percent of women worked in just 20 types of jobs, among them secretary, nurse, teacher, and salesperson. (See Table 1.)

Table 1. Top 20 occupations for women and men, 2012

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Women across the wage distribution need more access to work-family policies in order to better balance the dual demands of work and home. Polices such as paid sick days, paid family leave, and schedule flexibility would fill an important inequality gap for workers, especially women. This basket of work-family policies would allow both women and men to remain in the labor force while dealing with life’s emergencies.

The United States is an outlier among other developed nations in not offering work-family policies to workers.[x] Nor have employers in our country stepped in to provide these benefits. In 2013, only 61 percent of workers had employer-provided paid sick days.[xi] An even smaller share of workers—only 12 percent—had access to employer-provided paid leave, which can be used to recover from an illness or care for a family member.[xii]

Despite playing a larger role as family breadwinners, women today continue to be more likely than men to provide care to their families. The lack of family friendly policies make it harder for women to stay employed and provide financially for their families. Women who have to quit their jobs in order to provide care harm their future earnings potential. The U.S. Census Bureau found that new mothers who have access to paid maternity leave are more likely to return to their previous employer. About 98 percent of those who return to the same employer do so at their previous pay level or higher. Conversely, less than 70 percent of women who change employers after giving birth earn the same level of pay or higher.[xiii]

Work-family policies are critical for the strength and size of our labor force. In a 2013 study by Cornell University economists Francine D. Blau and Lawrence M. Kahn, the authors argue that likely one reason why the United States fell from the sixth-highest female labor-force participation rate among 22 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries in 1990 to the 17th-highest rate in 2010 was because it failed to keep up with other nations and adopt family-friendly policies.[xiv]

Although most workers do not have access to these important policies, low-wage workers disproportionately lack access to policies to balance work and care. Employers often view policies such as paid leave or paid sick days as perks for higher-paid workers. Too often workers who need these benefits the most—such as low- and middle-wage, young, and less-educated workers—do not have access to them. Workers whose wages are in the lowest 25 percent of average wages are approximately four times less likely to have access to paid family and medical leave than those in the highest 25 percent.[xv]

The lack of benefits for women earning the least in our economy is unhealthy for their families, the labor force, and the economy. Poorly paid jobs that do not provide these work-family benefits often offer nonstandard work or varying schedules, which often result in high employee turnover.[xvi] There is more we can do to boost women’s economic progress, and thereby boost the strength of the entire economy.

Federal policy can help working women succeed

Federal policies can encourage women’s work and increase family income. Specifically, these six policies are tailored to achieve the results we need for our families and our economy:

  • The Earned Income Tax Credit, Child Tax Credit, and Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit
  • The 21st Century Work Tax Act
  • Broader and less expensive access to child care and early childhood education programs
  • Work-family policies, such as family and medical leave insurance, as proposed in the Family and Medical Insurance Leave Act
  • Pay equity
  • Raising the minimum wage

Let’s examine each of these policies briefly in more detail.

Tax credits

With most working women playing the dual roles of breadwinner and caregiver, tax credits can help increase the financial security of American families. The Earned Income Tax Credit is a fully refundable tax credit for low-income working families. The credit is larger for those with dependent children.[xvii] The Earned Income Tax Credit is an effective anti-poverty policy that encourages work, especially among low-income single mothers.[xviii] In 2012, this tax credit lifted 6.5 million people out of poverty, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.[xix]

Additionally, there are two other tax credits that help most working families—rather than just low-income families—offset the cost of raising children. The Child Tax Credit refunds families up to $1,000 per year, per eligible child.[xx] The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit refunds families a percentage of total child-care costs, usually 20 percent to 35 percent.[xxi] The percentage of expenses refunded to families decreases as income rises. However, unlike the Earned Income Tax Credit or Child Tax Credit, this tax credit is not refundable, which means that only families who owe income taxes can benefit from the credit.[xxii]

Tax credits can benefit both our current and our future workforce. Tax credits provide families with additional income that can be spent on children’s skill development. For example, economist Gordon B. Dahl at the University of California-San Diego and economist Lance Lochner at the University of Western Ontario find evidence that increases in family income due to the Earned Income Tax Credit increase children’s math and reading test scores.[xxiii]

The 21st Century Worker Tax Act

The 21st Century Worker Tax Cut Act, introduced by Chairman Murray, would help promote women’s economic progress in two ways. First, the act proposes a new tax cut that would let low- and middle-income two-earner families keep more of what they earn. The tax cut would provide a 20 percent deduction on a secondary earner’s income.[xxiv] Furthermore, it would provide an additional benefit to low-income two-earner families. The 20 percent deduction would reduce their earned income for calculating the Earned Income Tax Credit and thus provide a higher refundable benefit.[xxv]

This deduction will benefit working mothers and their families in two ways. By deducting a portion of the secondary earner’s income, the cut would encourage mothers’ workforce participation, thereby helping them to better financially support their families. And it would help low-income working mothers offset the costs of child care through an enhanced refundable Earned Income Tax Credit. This would again further encourage mothers’ workforce participation and boost family income. It is estimated that the tax cut would benefit 7.3 million working families.[xxvi]

Second, the 21st Century Worker Act also would help support childless working women. The Act would increase the Earned Income Tax Credit for childless workers to about $1,400 in 2015.[xxvii] Furthermore, it would increase income eligibility and expand the eligibility age for childless workers so more would be eligible for this tax credit.[xxviii] It is estimated that the Act would benefit 13 million childless workers.[xxix] With women making up nearly two-thirds of minimum wage workers,[xxx] this expansion would increase the financial security of low-income women, and provide them with a better shot at the middle class.

Child care

In order to work and remain in the labor force, mothers need affordable high-quality child care. As mentioned earlier, tax credits help families manage their child care expenses, but child care remains very expensive for most families. In 2011, the average cost for a 4-year old in center-based care ranged from less than $4,000 a year to more than $15,000 a year.[xxxi] With most working women earning less than $30,000 a year, many cannot afford care or spend a large portion of their earnings on care.[xxxii]

In addition to making child care less expensive, policy should address so called “child care cliffs” for families receiving child-care assistance. In certain states, a slight increase in parent’s earnings can push them over the income threshold for child-care assistance, which can result in a sharp increase in child care expenses.[xxxiii] Unable to pay for high-quality care, working mothers could turn down a raise or ask for a pay cut to avoid going over the “cliff.”[xxxiv]

Early childhood education is one of the most important investments in our future workforce. But not all child care meets the standards to be considered an early childhood education program. It is important that policies expand access to high-quality early childhood education programs, especially to low-income children. Research finds that children who participate in early childhood education programs are more likely to do better in school, graduate and attend college, and are less likely to get involved with crime and become teenage parents.[xxxv] There are also large benefits to society. An academic study found that for every $1 invested in high-quality preschool, the U.S. economy saves $7 in future public costs due to increases in workers’ productivity, reduced remedial education costs, and reduced crime.[xxxvi]

Head Start

The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013, also known as the Murray-Ryan Budget Agreement, made important steps toward expanding early childhood education programs to working families. The Act provided about $8.6 billion in Head Start funding and for the President’s Early Head Start-Child Care Partnerships. This amount reversed the entire sequester cut to Head Start, about a half billion more than 2013 funding.[xxxvii] In fiscal year 2014, more low-income families can utilize this comprehensive early childhood program. About 57,000 children were dropped from the program in 2013.[xxxviii]

Family and Medical Leave Insurance

Women need polices to help them balance work and family care so they can remain in the workforce and help grow our economy. Family and medical leave insurance—also known as paid leave—would provide a critical support for workers—men and women alike—allowing them to take temporary leave from work to recover form an illness or care for a loved one.

The Family and Medical Insurance Leave Act of 2013, also known as the FAMILY Act, would relieve the financial burden of taking unpaid time off, providing paid leave for nearly every U.S. worker.[xxxix] Introduced by Representative Rosa DeLauro and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, the FAMILY Act draws on what we have learned from states that have family leave insurance and from other federal benefit programs.

Today, only three states provide paid leave to their workers: California, New Jersey, and Rhode Island.[xl] These three states provide years of useful experience to other states interested in providing paid leave to their workers. To encourage states to offer paid leave programs, the President’s Fiscal Year 2015 budget requests a $5 million State Paid Leave Fund.[xli]

Paid leave makes it easier for women to work and have higher lifetime earnings. Research by economist Christopher J. Ruhm at the University of Virginia and researcher Jackqueline L. Teague find that paid parental leave policies are associated with higher employment-to-population ratios and decreased unemployment for all workers.[xlii] Ruhm and Teague also find that moderate leaves—10 weeks to 25 weeks—are associated with higher labor-force participation rates for women.[xliii]

By remaining in the labor force, women are able to earn more during their careers, increasing families’ financial security.[xliv] Furthermore, there is evidence that these work-family policies could also help close the wage gap between workers who provide care and those who do not.[xlv]

Pay equity

The pay gap today persists for all women. On average, working women only make 77 cents for every dollar earned by men.[xlvi] This gap means that women make $11,084 less than men per year in median earnings.[xlvii] If women were paid the same amount as their male counterparts, their additional earnings could help improve their families’ financial security as well as provide additional tax revenue to the government.

Making sure that women receive equal pay for equal work not only affects their lifetime earnings but also strengthens the economy. The Institute for Women’s Policy Research finds that if women had received pay equal to their male counterparts in 2012, the U.S. economy would have produced $447.6 billion in additional income.[xlviii] This is equal to 2.9 percent of 2012 gross domestic product, or about equal to the entire economy of the state of Virginia.[xlix]

The President’s Fiscal Year 2015 budget requests $1.1 million to help eliminate pay discrimination among federal contractors. The funds would be used by the Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs to strengthen enforcement efforts.[l]

Minimum wage

Raising the minimum wage is critical for closing the wage gap. Low-wage workers are disproportionately women. Nearly two-thirds of minimum wage workers are women.[li]

Raising the minimum wage would provide many women—who represent 49.2 percent of total U.S. employment[lii]—with the economic security they need to succeed. According to calculations from the Economic Policy Institute, approximately 28 million workers would see a raise if the minimum wage were raised to $10.10 by July 2016.[liii] Fifty-five percent of the affected workers would be women. This share varies by state, and is as high as 63.3 percent in Mississippi.[liv]

Conclusion

Women’s employment is critical to their families and to our nation’s economy. Federal policy can do more to help women realize their full economic potential no matter where they are on the income ladder.

The Murray-Ryan Budget agreement has helped promote women’s economic progress in the workforce, but there will be more work to do after the deal expires.

We need to preserve tax credits such as the Earned Income Tax Credit and funding for early childhood education programs such as Head Start. Women are more likely to be low-wage workers, which means they and their families are more vulnerable to spending cuts. Passing the 21st Century Worker Tax Cut Act would provide two critical tax credits to low-wage working women, helping increase their earnings and give them a better shot at entering the middle class.

In addition, ensuring pay equity and providing work-family supports such as the FAMILY Act to all working women will further their economic progress. Closing the wage gap and raising the minimum wage boosts women’s earnings and could generate additional tax revenue. Work-family policies help breadwinner mothers remain in the labor force and better financially provide for their families.

As a critical driver of economic growth, women need polices that expand workforce opportunities. Yet to help all women succeed, polices must acknowledge that barriers to women’s work manifest themselves differently across the income distribution.  To echo House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, “when [all] women succeed, America succeeds.”[lv]

Endnotes


[i]           U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Women in the Labor Force: A Databook (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Labor, 2013), Table 2.

[ii]          U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Women in the Labor Force: A Databook, Table 20.

[iii]         Heather Boushey, “The New Breadwinners,” in The Shriver Report: A Woman’s Nation Changes Everything, ed. Heather Boushey and Ann O’Leary (Washington, DC: Center for American Progress, 2009); Sarah Jane Glynn, The New Breadwinners: 2010 Update (Washington, DC: Center for American Progress, 2012).

[iv]         Sarah Jane Glynn, “The New Breadwinners: 2010 Update.”

[v]          Eileen Appelbaum, Heather Boushey, and John Schmitt, Economic Importance of Women’s Rising Hours of Work: Time to Update Employment Standards (Washington, DC: Center for American Progress and the Center for Economic and Policy Research, 2014).

[vi]         Ibid.

[vii]        U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Women in the Labor Force: A Databook, Table 2.

[viii]       Carmen DeNavas-Walt, Bernadette D. Proctor, and Jessica C. Smith, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2012 (Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013), Table A-4.

[ix]         The statistic refers to the 90th to 10th wage percentile ratio. Lawrence Mishel and others, State of Working America, 12th ed. (Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute, 2013), Table 4-6, http://stateofworkingamerica.org/chart/swa-wages-table-4-6-hourly-wages-women-wage/.

[x]          Jody Heymann, Alison Earle, and Jeffrey Hayes, The Work, Family, Equity Index: How Does the U.S. Measure Up? (Montreal, Canada: Institute for Health and Social Policy, McGill University, 2009), http://www.hreonline.com/pdfs/08012009Extra_McGillSurvey.pdf.

[xi]         U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Table 32. Leave Benefits: Access, Private Industry Workers, National Compensation Survey, March 2013” (U.S. Department of Labor, 2013), http://www.bls.gov/ncs/ebs/benefits/2013/ownership/private/table21a.pdf.

[xii]        U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Table 32. Leave Benefits: Access, Private Industry Workers, National Compensation Survey, March 2013.”

[xiii]       Lynda Laughlin, Maternity Leave and Employment Patterns of First-Time Mothers: 1961–2008 (Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2011), Table 11, http://www.census.gov/prod/2011pubs/p70-128.pdf.

[xiv]        Francine D. Blau and Lawrence M. Kahn, Female Labor Supply: Why Is the US Falling Behind? (Bonn, Germany: Institute for the Study of Labor, 2013).

[xv]         U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Table 32. Leave Benefits: Access, Private Industry Workers, National Compensation Survey, March 2013.”

[xvi]        Susan J. Lambert and Julia R. Henly, “Nonstandard Work and Child-care Needs of Low-income Parents.” In Suzanne M. Bianchi, Lynne M. Casper, and Rosalind B. King, eds., Work, Family, Health, and Well-being (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc., 2005), pp. 473–92.

[xvii]       Elaine Maag and Adam Carasso, “Taxation and the Family: What Is the Earned Income Tax Credit?” (Washington, DC: Tax Policy Center, 2014), http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/key-elements/family/eitc.cfm.

[xviii]      Nada Eissa and Jeffrey B. Liebman, “Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 111, no. 2 (1996): 605–37; Chuck Marr, Chye-Ching Huang, and Arloc Sherman, Earned Income Tax Credit Promotes Work, Encourages Children’s Success at School, Research Finds (Washington, DC: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 2014), http://www.cbpp.org/files/6-26-12tax.pdf.

[xix]        Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, The Earned Income Tax Credit (Washington, DC: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 2014), http://www.cbpp.org/files/policybasics-eitc.pdf.

[xx]         Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Policy Basics: The Child Tax Credit (Washington, DC: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 2014), http://www.cbpp.org/files/policybasics-ctc.pdf.

[xxi]        Elaine Maag, “The Tax Policy Briefing Book: Taxation and the Family: How Does the Tax System Subsidize Child Care Expenses?” (Washington, DC: Tax Policy Center, 2013), http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/key-elements/family/child-care-subsidies.cfm.

[xxii]       Maag, “The Tax Policy Briefing Book: Taxation and the Family: How Does the Tax System Subsidize Child Care Expenses?”

[xxiii]      Gordon B. Dahl and Lance J. Lochner, “The Impact of Family Income on Child Achievement: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit,” American Economic Review 102, no. 5 (August 2012): 1927–56.

[xxiv]      21st Century Worker Tax Cut Act, S. 2162, 113 Cong. 2 sess. (2014).

[xxv]       U.S. Senator Patty Murray, “Senator Patty Murray Introduces The 21st Century Worker Tax Cut Act,” Press release, March 26, 2014, http://www.murray.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2014/3/senator-patty-murray-introduces-the-21st-century-worker-tax-cut-act.

[xxvii]     U.S. Senator Patty Murray, “Senator Patty Murray Introduces The 21st Century Worker Tax Cut Act.”

[xxviii]    Ibid.

[xxix]      U.S. Senate Budget Committee, “The 21st Century Worker Tax Act.”

[xxx]       David Madland and Keith Miller, “Raising the Minimum Wage Would Boost the Incomes of Millions of Women and Their Families” (Center for American Progress Action Fund, 2013), http://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/labor/news/2013/12/09/80484/raising-the-minimum-wage-would-boost-the-incomes-of-millions-of-women-and-their-families/.

[xxxi]      Melissa Boteach and Shawn Fremstad, “Putting Women at the Center of Policymaking,” in The Shriver Report: A Woman’s Nation Pushes Back from the Brink (Washington, DC: Center for American Progress, 2014), 244–79.

[xxxii]     Ibid.

[xxxiii]    Ibid.

[xxxiv]      Ibid; NBC News, “Working Americans turn down pay raise to avoid ‘cliff effect’,” May 24, 2013, http://www.nbcnews.com/video/rock-center/51996100.

[xxxv]     James J. Heckman and Dimitriy V. Masterov, “The Productivity Argument for Investing in Young Children,” Review of Agricultural Economics 29 (2007): 446–93.

[xxxvi]    Arthur J. Reynolds et al., “Age 21 Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Title I Chicago Child-Parent Centers,” Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis 24, no. 4 (Winter 2002): 267–303.

[xxxvii]   Committee on Appropriations – Democrats, “Summary of Omnibus Appropriations Act,” United States House of Representatives, http://democrats.appropriations.house.gov/top-news/summary-of-omnibus-appropriations-act/ (last accessed May 2014); Harry Stein, “The Omnibus Spending Bill Reveals the Economic Consequences of the Murray-Ryan Budget Deal” (Center for American Progress, 2014), http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/budget/news/2014/01/17/82484/the-omnibus-spending-bill-reveals-the-economic-consequences-of-the-murray-ryan-budget-deal/.

[xxxviii]  Stein, “The Omnibus Spending Bill Reveals the Economic Consequences of the Murray-Ryan Budget Deal.”

[xxxix]    National Partnership for Women and Families, “Fact Sheet: The Family and Medical Insurance Leave Act (FAMILY Act)” (Washington, DC: National Partnership for Women & Families, 2014), http://www.nationalpartnership.org/research-library/work-family/paid-leave/family-act-fact-sheet.pdf.

[xl]         National Partnership for Women and Families, “Paid Family & Medical Leave: An Overview,” (2012), http://go.nationalpartnership.org/site/DocServer/PFML_Overview_FINAL.pdf?docID=7847; Rhode Island Department of Labor and Training, “Temporary Disability Insurance,” http://www.dlt.ri.gov/tdi/ (last accessed May 2014).

[xli]        Department of Labor, FY 2015 Department of Labor Budget in Brief (Washington, DC: Department of Labor, 2014), http://www.dol.gov/dol/budget/2015/PDF/FY2015BIB.pdf.

[xlii]       Christopher Ruhm and Jackqueline L. Teague, “Parental Leave Policies in Europe and North America,” Gender and the Family Issues in the Workplace, 1997, 133–56.

[xliii]      Ibid.

[xliv]       MetLife Mature Market Institute, The MetLife Study of Caregiving Costs to Working Caregivers: Double Jeopardy for Baby Boomers Caring for Their Parents (Westport, CT: MetLife Mature Market Institute, 2011).

[xlv]        Jane Waldfogel, “The Family Gap for Young Women in the United States and Britain: Can Maternity Leave Make a Difference?,” Journal of Labor Economics 16, no. 3 (1998): 505–45.

[xlvi]       DeNavas-Walt, Proctor, and Smith, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2012, Table A-4.

[xlvii]      National Women’s Law Center, “How the Wage Gap Hurts Women and Families,” (Washington, DC: National Women’s Law Center, 2013), http://www.nwlc.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/factorotherthan_sexfactsheet_5.30.12_final.pdf.

[xlviii]     Heidi Hartmann and Jeffrey Hayes, How Equal Pay for Working Women Would Reduce Poverty and Grow the American Economy (Washington, DC: Institute for Women’s Policy Research, 2014).

[xlix]       Ibid; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Widespread Economic Growth in 2012, News release, June 6, 2013), Table 4, http://bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/2013/pdf/gsp0613.pdf.

[l]           Department of Labor, FY 2015 Department of Labor Budget in Brief.

[li]          Madland and Miller, “Raising the Minimum Wage Would Boost the Incomes of Millions of Women and Their Families.”

[lii]         David Cooper, Raising the Federal Minimum Wage to $10.10 Would Lift Wages for Million and Provide a Modest Economic Boost, (Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute, 2013), http://www.epi.org/publication/raising-federal-minimum-wage-to-1010/.

[liii]        Ibid.

[liv]        Ibid.

[lv]         Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, “When Women Succeed, America Succeeds: An Economic Agenda for Women and Families,” http://www.democraticleader.gov/Women_Succeed (last accessed May 2014).

Senator Marco Rubio’s retirement plan

One of great insights in Thomas Piketty’s “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” is his exploration of how high-income individuals turn their wage income into investment capital, providing a steady income independent of labor for themselves and their decedents. In contrast, those in the middle class and low-income earners especially have to keep on working to earn income, passing little or nothing onto their children and grandchildren. That dynamic also happens on a smaller scale within a lifetime. The inequality in savings for retirement among the vast bulk of Americans is starting cause concern for policy makers

Now entering the discussion is Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who will deliver a speech today about retirement insecurity and possible policy solutions, According to the Associated Press, Sen. Rubio will unveil several potential policies, one of which is of particular interest. He will call for opening the federal government retirement savings plan to contributions from all Americans. The plan, known as the Thrift Savings Plan, is a well-designed defined-contribution 401 (k) plan with low fees that offers savers a menu of index funds in which to invest.

Sen. Rubio’s proposal interesting not only in light of who else has called for opening the program but also because it would help mitigate the inequality in saving for retirement. According to estimates from the Economic Policy Institute, households with earnings in the top 20 percent of income distribution held an average of more than $300,000 in retirement savings in 2010, the last year for which complete data are available. This compares to average savings of only $7,543 for households with earnings in the bottom 20 percent of income.

This vast inequality in savings is because low-income workers mostly lack access to a savings plan at work and when they do often don’t readily participate. The inequality in access to plans is startling. For workers in the bottom third of earnings, only a third work for a company that offers a retirement plan. That percentage jumps to 70 percent for workers in the top third of earnings. Sen. Rubio’s call to open the Thrift Savings Plan to the public would drastically reduce this inequality as any worker would be able to contribute to the plan. Yet the problem of actual participation would still be there. Auto-enrollment into plans has been successful in the past, so policymakers including Sen. Rubio might well consider that option.

Exploring whether and how wealth inequality and economic growth are linked is central to Thomas Piketty’s “Capital in the 21st Century,” but that’s probably not the reason Sen. Rubio is championing the Thrift Savings Plan option as a policy tool to fight wealth inequality. Nonetheless, the Florida Republican is firmly in today’s Piketty zeitgeist with his new policy proposal.

 

Morning Must-Read: Noah Smith Reads Andrei Shleifer, Jeremy Greenwood, and Company on Trend-Chasing

Noah Smith: Does trend-chasing explain financial markets?: “Why do stock prices mean-revert in the long run?…

…Some people say that it’s because of time-varying risk premia with Rational Expectations; others say that it’s because of people’s incorrect information processing, and expectations are non-rational…. Andrei Shleifer and Robin Greenwood… take an extremely simple approach toward measuring people expectations: Just ask people what they think is going to happen!… Survey [expectations] measures are… strongly correlated… consistent with investors’ actions…. What causes people to expect higher stock returns?… Trend-chasing… seems to fit the facts very well…. Extrapolative Expectations beat Rational Expectations. That result would imply that trend-chasing by quasi-rational investors is the big force behind long-term stock return predictability…. But… [this] leaves the turning points unexplained…. There must be a role for hetergeneous investor expectations…. The refinement that Greenwood and Shleifer make in this 2013 paper, in which they team up with Nicholas Barberis and Lawrence Jin. They make a theoretical model where some investors are extrapolative trend-chasers and some are rational…