Must-Read: Ken Rogoff: The Fed’s Communication Breakdown

Must-Read: I guess I must be a foaming polemicist then :-)…

Ken Rogoff: The Fed’s Communication Breakdown: “Personally, I would probably err on the side of waiting longer…

…and accept the very high risk that, when inflation does rise, it will do so briskly, requiring a steeper path of interest-rate hikes later. But if the Fed goes that route, it needs to say clearly that it is deliberately risking an inflation overshoot. The case for waiting is that we really have no idea of what the equilibrium real (inflation-adjusted) policy interest rate is right now, and as such, need a clear signal on price growth before moving.

But only a foaming polemicist would deny that there is also a case for hiking rates sooner, as long as the Fed doesn’t throw random noise into the market by continuing to send spectacularly mixed signals about its beliefs and objectives. After all, the US economy is at or near full employment, and domestic demand is growing solidly…

I look at this graph:

And I think: One always disagrees with the very sharp Ken Rogoff at one’s grave analytical peril…

But: Inflation expectations anchored at 2%/year, wage growth at 0%/year real, the prime-age employment-population ratio far below historical norms–that does not smell like an economy “at or near full employment” to me. And so I cannot see a “very high risk that, when inflation does rise, it will do so briskly”, or agree that “only a foaming polemicist would deny that there is also a case for hiking rates” not “sooner” but “right now”…