Must-Read: Dani Rodrik: Brexit and the Globalization Trilemma

Must-Read: Time to fly my Neoliberal Freak Flag again!

I see this very differently than the extremely-sharp leader of the Seventh Social-Democratic International Dani Rodrik does. The Greek and the Spanish electorates vote loudly that they want to stay in the EU and even in the Eurozone at all costs, rather than threaten to exercise their exit option. The German electorate votes loudly that they want fiscal austerity at all costs. The policies are a result of those–democratic–decisions. The problem is not that Europe has too little democracy. The problem is that it has the wrong kind. Issues of fiscal stance are technocratic issues of economic governance in order to balance aggregate demand with potential output–to make the demand for safe, liquid, stores of value at full employment equal to the supply of such assets provided by governments with the exorbitant privilege of issuing reserve currencies and whatever other actors (if any) maintain credibility as safe borrowers. They are not properly what Angela Merkel and company have turned them into: things for the Germany electorate to vote on as it participates in what Dani Rodrik rightly calls a morality play about prudence and fecklessness. The monetary issue of whether to stay in the Eurozone or to pursue adjustment-through-depreciation is also a technocratic issue of economic governance in order to maximize speed and minimize the pain of structural adjustment. It is not properly what it has become: a thing for the Greek and Spanish electorates to vote on in a different morality play, one of whether the Mediterranean is or is not a full part of “Europe”.

Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes were good democrats. Neither would say that Europe’s economic problems now are the result of a deficiency of democracy. They would say that it is the fault of their IMF–that their IMF should have blown the whistle, declared a fundamental disequilibrium, and required one of:

  1. the shrinkage of the eurozone and the depreciation of the peso and the drachma back in 2010
  2. a wipeout of Greek and Spanish external debts, and a fiscal transfer program from the German government to Greece and Spain and to German banks if German authorities wished to avoid such a shrinking of the eurozone.

We did not have such an IMF back in 2010. But that we did not have such an IMF is not the result of a deficiency of democracy in Europe.

Or so I think: I could be wrong here.

Dani:

Dani Rodrik: Brexit and the Globalization Trilemma: “My personal hope is that Britain will choose to remain in the EU…

…without Britain the EU will likely become less democratic and more wrong-headed…. Exit poses significant economic risk to Britain…. But there are also serious questions posed about the nature of democracy and self-government in the EU as presently constituted. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (AEP) has now written a remarkable piece that… has little in common with the jingoistic and nativist tone of the Brexit campaign….

Stripped of distractions, it comes down to an elemental choice: whether to restore the full self-government of this nation, or to continue living under a higher supranational regime, ruled by a European Council that we do not elect in any meaningful sense, and that the British people can never remove, even when it persists in error…. We are deciding whether to be guided by a Commission with quasi-executive powers that operates more like the priesthood of the 13th Century papacy than a modern civil service; and whether to submit to a European Court (ECJ) that claims sweeping supremacy, with no right of appeal….

The trouble is that the EU is more of a technocracy than a democracy (AEP calls it a nomenklatura). An obvious alternative to Brexit would be to construct a full-fledged European democracy…. But as AEP says,

I do not think this is remotely possible, or would be desirable if it were, but it is not on offer anyway. Six years into the eurozone crisis there is no a flicker of fiscal union: no eurobonds, no Hamiltonian redemption fund, no pooling of debt, and no budget transfers. The banking union belies its name. Germany and the creditor states have dug in their heels….

Democracy is compatible with deep economic integration only if democracy is appropriately transnationalized as well…. The tension that arises between democracy and globalization is not straightforwardly a consequence of the fact that the latter constrains national sovereignty…. External constraints… can enhance rather than limit democracy. But there are also many circumstances under which external rules do not satisfy the conditions of democratic delegation…. It is clear that the EU rules needed to underpin a single European market have extended significantly beyond what can be supported by democratic legitimacy. Whether Britain’s opt out remains effective or not, the political trilemma is at work….

When I was asked to contribute to a special millennial issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives… I viewed the EU as the only part of the world economy that could successfully combine hyperglobalization (‘the single market’) with democracy through the creation of a European demos and polity…. I now have to admit that I was wrong in this view (or hope, perhaps). The manner in which Germany and Angela Merkel, in particular, reacted to the crisis in Greece and other indebted countries buried any chance of a democratic Europe…. She treated it as a morality play, pitting responsible northerners against lazy, profligate southerners, and to be dealt with by European technocrats accountable to no one serving up disastrous economic remedies…. My generation of Turks looked at the European Union as an example to emulate and a beacon of democracy. It saddens me greatly that it has now come to stand for a style of rule-making and governance so antithetical to democracy that even informed and reasonable observers like AEP view departure from it as the only option for repairing democracy.

Must-Read: Maury Obstfeld: Evolution Not Revolution: Rethinking Policy at the IMF

Must-Read: Maurice Obstfeld: Evolution Not Revolution: Rethinking Policy at the IMF: “I would describe the process as evolution, not revolution…

…The Fund has long tried to build on its experiences in the field and on new research to improve its effectiveness in economic surveillance, technical assistance, and crisis response. It’s fair to say that the shock of the global financial crisis led to a broad rethink of macroeconomic and financial policy in the global academic and policy community. The Fund has been part of that, but, given the impacts of our decisions on member countries and the global economic system, we view it as especially important for us constantly to re-evaluate our thinking in light of new evidence. That process has not fundamentally changed the core of our approach, which is based on open and competitive markets, robust macro policy frameworks, financial stability, and strong institutions. But it has added important insights about how best to achieve those results in a sustainable way….

We are in favor of fiscal policies that support growth and equity over the long term. What those policies will be can differ from country to country and from situation to situation. Governments simply have to live within their means on a long-term basis, or face some form of debt default, which normally is quite costly for citizens, and especially the poorest. This is a fact, not an ideological position. Our job is to advise how governments can best manage their fiscal policies so as to avoid bad outcomes. Sometimes, this requires us to recognize situations in which excessive budget cutting can be counterproductive to growth, equity, and even fiscal sustainability goals….

Countries need credible medium-term fiscal frameworks that leave markets confident the public debt can be repaid without very high inflation. Countries with such frameworks will typically have room to soften economic slumps through fiscal means, including automatic stabilizers…. There are limits to the pain economies can or should sustain, so in especially difficult cases we recommend debt re-profiling or debt reduction, which require creditors to bear part of the cost of adjustment. That is the approach we are currently recommending for Greece…

Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Germany Austerity Policy

Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Germany Austerity Policy: “Once the bubble burst, there was going to be a difficult time for the Euro, regardless…

…But it’s been far worse than it needed to be and Germany bears some of the responsibility because of turning what should have been viewed as essentially a technical economic problem into a morality play. That has been a very unfortunate story…. Austerity policies have taken what was fundamentally a story about excessive private capital flows and housing bubbles and turned it into lectures of fiscal responsibility that have ended up doing a lot of damage….

Greece was going to have to do a fair amount of austerity but not this much. In the end it would still have been ugly, but not on this level. What could have mitigated the damage? The thing is that what has actually happened has not worked. Greece is still in the Euro. There’s a little bit of economic growth but at the cost of an incredible slump. The ratio of debt to GDP is higher than ever. All of this austerity has not only not resolved the fiscal problem, it hasn’t even moved it in the right direction…

Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: Greece Under Troika Rule

Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: Greece Under Troika Rule: “‘The repayment of foreign loans and the return to stable currencies…

…were recognized as the touchstones of rationality in politics; and no private suffering, no infringement of sovereignty was considered too great a sacrifice for the recovery of monetary integrity. The privations of the unemployed made jobless by deflation; the destitution of public servants dismissed without a pittance; even the relinquishment of national rights and the loss of constitutional liberties were judged a fair price to pay for the fulfilment of the requirements of sound budgets and sound currencies, these a priori of economic liberalism. — Karl Polanyi (1944), ‘The Great Transformation’ (p142)

This quote (HT Jeremy Smith) could almost be written today about Greece. I had once thought that the lessons of the interwar period and Great Depression had been well learnt, but 2010 austerity showed that was wrong…. The Greek government borrowed too much… the scale… meant default was pretty inevitable. But Eurozone leaders, worried about their banking system (which held a lot of Greek debt), first postponed default and then made it partial. The real ‘bailing out’ was for the European banks and others who had lent to the Greek government…. Nothing… obliged Eurozone leaders to lend their voters money to bail out these creditors…. If European leaders felt their banking systems needed support, they could have done this directly….

They convinced themselves that Greece could pay them back. It was a mistake they will do anything to avoid admitting. To try and ensure they got their money back, they along with the IMF effectively took over the running of the Greek economy. The result has been a complete disaster. The amount of austerity imposed caused great hardship, and crashed the economy…. The Troika wants 3.5% primary surpluses by 2018… to start getting their money back sooner… an absurd demand…. Right now Greece needs more aggregate demand not structural reform, yet the Troika insists on taking more demand out of the economy….

Despite Martin Sandbu’s optimism, the recent deal is essentially more of the same. The IMF, which knows it makes no sense to ‘extend and pretend’, has again capitulated. The reaction to the IMF’s paper on neoliberalism has generally missed the key point. It is not fanciful to believe that the paper is directed at those within the IMF like Poul Thomsen, the head of their European department. Falling GDP will continue to be blamed on the Greek government, even without its former finance minister. Of course one day the Greek economy will recover, just as the Irish famine came to an end. But history, as taught in Britain as well as Ireland, does not remember the British troops guarding the shipments of grain leaving Ireland during the famine as heroic upholders of the rules of law and contract. Nor will it do the same for the members of the Troika that keep Greece in poverty.

Must-read: Dan Davies: Comment on “The Euro Area Crisis Five Years After the Original Sin”

Must-Read: Dan Davies: Comment on “The Euro Area Crisis Five Years After the Original Sin”: “The IMF took two decisions on Greece, not one…

…They decided that they could lend without a debt restructuring, and they decided to implement a completely unprecedented front-loaded fiscal consolidation program. The first of these was the subject of the ‘mea culpa’ exercise, but the second has never been revisited… they actually defended it in the lessons-learnt paper…. It seems clear to me that it is the second mistake, not the first, which deserves the name ‘austerity’, and it is blindingly obvious that the overwhelming majority of the economic damage was done by the front-loaded nature of the fiscal cuts. (The IMF occasionally tries to claim that the headline number of the debt/GDP ratio had a negative effect on business confidence, but this seems pretty desperate to me when you’re trying to explain what happened to Greek GDP and the alternative explanation is simply the cut in government spending).
But having noted that the decision to slash and burn the primary deficit might have been a bad idea, Orphanides then spends the rest of the paper talking about the minor mistake which made hardly any difference!…

Must-Read: Dani Rodrik: The Mirage of Structural Reform

Must-Read: If you set out to take Vienna, take Vienna. If you want to balance the foreign exchange account, give people incentives to boost exports and cut back imports. Any economy that might suddenly need to balance its foreign exchange account needs to have a flexible currency–or partners who are willing to take steps to do the job themselves. Greece lacks both.

Dani Rodrik: The Mirage of Structural Reform: “If structural reforms have not paid off in Greece…

…it is not because Greek governments have slacked off…. Instead, the current disappointment arises from the very logic of structural reform: most of the benefits come much later, not when a country really needs them. There is an alternative strategy…. A selective approach that targets the ‘binding constraints’…. So, which binding constraints in the Greek economy should be targeted? The biggest bang for the reform buck would be obtained from increasing the profitability of tradables–spurring investment and entrepreneurship in export activities, both existing and new. Of course, Greece lacks the most direct instrument for achieving this–currency depreciation…. But… tax incentives to special zones to targeted infrastructure projects… an institution close to the prime minister that is tasked with fostering a dialogue with potential investors… [with] authority to remove the obstacles it identifies, rather than having its proposals languish in various ministries. Such obstacles are typically highly specific–a zoning regulation here, a training program there–and are unlikely to be well targeted by broad structural reforms…