Tag: roundup

• Nancy Cartwright and Angus Deaton: The Limitations of Randomised Controlled Trials: “A well-conducted RCT can yield a credible estimate of an ATE in one specific population, namely the ‘study population’…
• Mark Thoma: My Voter’s Guide to Economic Policy: “Now we can finally come together as a nation and begin to make progress on important economic, social, and political issues (I can dream, can’t I?)…

Should Reads:

• Edward Luttwak (1994): Fascism Is the Wave of the Future
• Endorse: Scholars’ Letter of Support for Ricardo Hausmann

• Nick Rowe: New Keynesians Just Assume Full Employment: “Anyone with even an ounce of Old Keynesian blood… if they understood what the New Keynesians are doing, would be screaming blue murder that we are teaching this New Keynesian model to our students as the main macro model, and that central banks are using this model to set monetary policy…
• Ann Pettifor: Brexit and Its Consequences: “The ‘Brexit’ vote is but the latest manifestation of popular dissatisfaction with the utopian ideal of autonomous markets beyond the reach of regulatory democracy…
• Jared Bernstein: Will the Federal Reserve really have what it takes to fight off the next recession?: “Someone called me the other day all wound up because some market prognosticator convinced her that a U.S. recession was right around the corner…
• Noah Smith: Want More Startups? Build a Better Safety Net: “What was wrong with the theory?… Acemoglu et al…. [thought] the thing that determines entrepreneurial success is… how hard you try…
• IMF: 17th Annual Research Conference: Macroeconomics after the Great Recession, November 3-4, 2016: “The theme… is “Macroeconomics after the Great Recession”…
• Mervyn King: The End of Alchemy: “I tend not to blame individual bankers, but the economics profession as a whole..

Should Reads:

• Simon Wren-Lewis: Brexit and Neoliberalism: “The economics of [BREXIT] was always fantasy…. Controlling immigration is not a caricature of what the majority of Leave voters wanted, but instead what most were voting for…”
• Edward Filene (1931): Successful Living in This Machine Age: “Mass Production is not simply large-scale production…
• Aaron Carroll: How has the Medicaid expansion affected hospital finances?
• Amanda Bayer and Cecilia Rouse: Diversity in the Economics Profession:
• Best Business Books 2016: Economy
• Bayesianism versus Smoothing: In Which I Surrender Unconditionally to Cosma Shalizi

• Carmen Reinhart: The Return of Dollar Shortages: “Seven decades later, despite the broad global trend toward more flexibility in exchange-rate policy and freer movement of capital across national borders, a “dollar shortage” has reemerged…
• Dennis K. Berman and Jamie Heller: Wall Street’s “Do-Nothing” Investing Revolution: “Picking stocks is at heart an arrogant act…
• Bruce A. Blonigen and Justin R. Pierce: Evidence for the Effects of Mergers on Market Power and Efficiency: “Study of the impact of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on productivity and market power has been complicated…
• Simon Wren-Lewis: Paul Romer on Macroeconomics: “The microfoundations project, which was meant to make macro just another application of microeconomics, has left macroeconomics with very few friends among other economists….
• Doug Jones: The world at 1000 BCE: “The world population is about 50 million…
• Robert Waldmann: Benchmark II: “Benchmark[s] which I think are dangerous…

Should Reads:

• Brad Setser: The Return of the East Asian Savings Glut
• Kevin Drum: Long Haul Truck Drivers Are Scarily Close to Being Put Out of Business
• Kevin H. O’Rourke: It’s the UK that Wants New Barriers…: “Oh dear. EU doesn’t want tariffs with the UK: it’s the UK that wants new barriers. UK choices may require tariffs under WTO rules…”
• Arthur Okun: Equality and Efficiency: The Big Tradeoff
• Beating America’s Health-Insurance Monopolists: No Longer Live at Project Syndicate

• Simon Wren-Lewis: Neoliberalism and Austerity: “Austerity could [not] have happened on the scale that it did without this dominance of this neoliberal ethos…
• Paul Krugman: Debt, Diversion, Distraction: “There was a time… when deficit scolds were actively dangerous…
• Daniel Boffey: Brexit: leading banks set to pull out of UK early next year: Anthony Browne, head of the British Bankers’ Association, warns that major lenders are poised to hit relocate button
• Brahman: [A Few Thoughts on Finance and BREXIT…][]: “Trouble is that even @MarkFieldMP MP for the City can’t be bothered to fight to stay within the Single Market…
• Izabella Kaminska: The Robot Revolution May Be Exaggerated: “UBS is back… 34-page[s]… re-shoring and automation trend much touted by tech utopians as the silver lining to the [globalization] reversal may be exaggerated…
• Ricardo J. Caballero and Alp Simsek: A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment: Global Liquidity Creation and Reach for Safety and Yield: “Gross capital flows are very large and highly cyclical…
• Joe Weisenthal: @TheStalwart: “Per Goldman, the biggest contributors to the LFPR rebound were drops in the disabled and ‘don’t want a job’ category.”

Should Reads:

• Catherine Caruso: Scientists “Switch Off” Self-Control Using Brain Stimulation: A clever experiment pinpoints the brain region involved in taking the perspective of our future selves or that of others
• Jeni Asaba: Debate over: IBM confirms that Macs are $535 less expensive than PCs
• Bethany Brookshire: Blame bad incentives for bad science
• Why Did Keynes Write “In the Long Run We Are All Dead”?
• Sean M. Carroll and Charles T. Sebens: Many Worlds, the Born Rule, and Self-Locating Uncertainty
• W. H. Zurek (1981): Pointer basis of quantum apparatus: Into what mixture does the wave packet collapse?

• Edward L. Glaeser, Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto, and Andrei Shleifer: Securing Property Rights: “A central challenge in securing property rights is the subversion of justice…
• Brown University Janus Forum: Inequality: Is America Becoming a Two-Tiered Society?: Monday, October 17 @ 5:30pm :: Brown Faculty Club Hunter Room…
• Mohamed A. El-Erian: Toxic Politics Versus Better Economics: “Advanced-country politicians are locked in bizarre, often toxic, conflicts…
• Jason Furman: Five Fiscal Policy Principles: “Nowhere is… recovery complete…
• Patrick Iber: How Academics Can Use Twitter: “Two of the most important debates we have been having in academe in the last few years center on the issues of contingent labor and public engagement…

Should Reads:

• David Roberts: The Left vs. a Carbon Tax
• IMF: Spotlight on Today’s Global Challenges: Fiscal Policy in the New Normal
• Alan B. Krueger: Where Have All the Workers Gone?
• At the Origin of Gross Inequality (Wednesday Economic History)
• Note to Self: The iron law of websites

• James Stock and Mark Watson: Why Has GDP Growth Been So Slow to Recover?:
• Vitor Gaspar, Maurice Obstfeld, Ratna Sahay, et al.: Macroeconomic Management When Policy Space Is Constrained: A Comprehensive, Consistent, and Coordinated Approach to Economic Policy: “Global output remains below potential, unemployment above its natural rate, and inflation below target…

Should Reads:

• Ben Bernanke: Modifying the Fed’s policy framework: Does a higher inflation target beat negative interest rates?:
• Brad Setser: Splitting out Emerging Economies Changes the Picture on Global Trade
• Brad Setser: China: Too Much Investment, But Also Way Too Much Savings
• David Levine et al.: Quality of Outpatient Care Delivered to US Adults, 2002-2013
• Inequality: Brown University Janus Forum:
• (Early) Monday DeLong Smackdown: Labor Force Participation Trends:
• Note to Self from Boston Harborside: Alan Krueger and Gabriel Chodorow-Reich both assure me…
• The Prime-Age Men Missing from the Labor Force…:
• Weekend Reading: Janet!:
• Live Here with Glenn Rudebusch, Tim Due, and Lael Brainard in the Back Left Corner of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Auditorium:Another thought on Stock and Watson: doing things in first differences minimizes the salience of persistent factors that are small in any one period but cumulatively, have large impact…

• Noah Smith: Don’t Be So Sure the Big Tech Breakthroughs Are Behind Us: “Timothy B. Lee used to be one of the most ardent techno-optimists. But he’s had a bit of a conversion…
• Boston Fed: 60th Economic Conference: The Elusive “Great” Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics
• Mark Thoma: This Nobel Prize for Economics Is Well Deserved: “Most people have probably never even heard of “contract theory”… Oliver Hart and Bengt Holmström…
• Nick Bunker: How Much Bigger Can the U.S. Labor Force Get?: “The White House’s Council of Economic Advisers puts about half of the decline in [labor force] participation from 2007 to 2014 into the “aging” category…
• Loren Brandt, Debin Ma, and Thomas G. Rawski (2012): From Divergence to Convergence: Re-evaluating the History Behind China’s Economic Boom: “The Qing Empire (1644-1911), the world’s largest national economy prior to the 19th century, experienced a tripling of population during the 17th and 18th centuries with no signs of diminishing per capita income…
• Paul Krugman: Notes on Brexit and the Pound: “The much-hyped severe Brexit recession does not, so far, seem to be materializing…
• Simon Wren-Lewis: Very Serious People and the Deficit: “George Osborne argued explicitly that the economic consensus was now that monetary policy should deal with stabilising output and inflation, while fiscal policy makers should look after their own deficit…

Should Reads:

• John Fernald: What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?
• Nic Fleming (2014): Gamification: Is it game over?: Taking the rules of video games and applying them to everyday life was billed as the next big thing, something that would transform everything from dull office work to how we exercise. But can it really work?
• Adair Turner: Demystifying Monetary Finance
• Olivier Blanchard et al. (2010): Rethinking Macro Policy
• Rudi Dornbusch (1998): Growth Forever
• Ben Bernanke (2002): Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here
• Simon Wren-Lewis: A General Theory of Austerity
• Kyle Harper: People, Plagues, and Prices in the Roman World: The Evidence from Egypt: “Wheat prices, land prices, rents, and wages over the entire period of Roman control… intensive and extensive growth as well as contraction…. Demographic changes… an important, but by no means the only, force…”
  Maury Obstfeld (2015): Trilemmas and Trade-Offs: Living with Financial Globalisation
• James Bessen: How computer automation affects occupations
• Justin Fox: Not Working Makes People Sick
• Boston Federal Reserve: 60th Economic Conference: The Elusive “Great” Recovery:
  Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics
• Dan Davies: The “Third Country Equivalence” Delusion
• Kansas Economic Policy Conference
• Alan Greenspan (1997): Testimony on CPI Bias:
• John B. Taylor (1999): A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules
• Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams (2003): Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
• Andrew Bailey (2009): Deliberation and Monetary Policy: Quantifying the Words of American Central Bankers, 1979-1999
• Hoisted from Two Years Ago: Unclear and Inadequate Thoughts on Financial Stability and Monetary Policy Once Again:
• CAPE, Future Expected Equity Returns, the Equity Premium, and Market Timing:
• DRAFT: Did Macroeconomic Policy Play a Different Role in the (Post-2009) Recovery?:

• Aimee Donnellan: Hard Brexit to cost 2,000 Goldman Jobs: Wall Street giant to shift third of City staff if single market access is lost…
• Neil Irwin: Britain’s Economy Was Resilient After ‘Brexit.’ Its Leaders Learned the Wrong Lesson: “The British currency is plummeting again…
• Matthew Yglesias: We Still Haven’t Recovered: “The long-term structural decline of American men’s attachment to the labor market is an interesting and important issue, [but] it’s not really an alternative to the theory that current low participation rates reflect an overall weak labor market…
• Antonio Fatás and Lawrence H. Summers: The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: “The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies…
• Anat R. Admati et al.: The Leverage Ratchet Effect: “Firms’ inability to commit to future funding choices has profound consequences for capital structure dynamics…

Should Reads:

• Francis X. Diebold: Machine Learning vs. Econometrics, II
• Kevin Bryan: Nobel Prize 2016 Part I: Bengt Holmstrom
• Kevin Bryan: Nobel Prize 2016 Part II: Oliver Hart
• Felix Salmon (2013): Where banks really make money on IPOs
• Comment of the Day: Charles Steindel: Alan Greenspan Misjudged the Risks: “Agreed. I attended a number of FOMC meetings during the Greenspan era (not that one)…
• Weekend Reading: Harold Nicolson (1936): The Via Media Between War and Dishonour…
• The Hon. Member for Epping, October 5, 1938: