After the Social Studies Problematic?

Suppose, for a moment, you were teaching your college students social theory—but that you were back in 1750.

Who would you want your students to have at hand to read?

We will not do the boring think of confining you to assigning solely authors who had written before 1750. Assume that the appropriate time machine is available. But, equally, we will not do the boring thing of allowing you to assign historical accounts of what in 1750 was then the future. This is an intellectual exercise: we are interested in analytical perspectives on societies and how they work.

The century after 1750 is, of course, the century of the Democratic Revolution and of the Industrial Revolution. It also contains the first stirrings of racial equality, or at least of anti-slavery. It contains the first reduction in social pressure on women to focus on reproduction and household production only. And it contains the first descents of theology: the first intrusions into this world of the apocalyptic eschatological utopianism that had been sought by prayer more than political action—the first intrusions of what my teacher Jeff Weintraub calls “the total conception of virtue”.

What five thinkers would best prepare students as of 1750 to analyze the century that was to come?

I would say:

  • Karl Marx for the Industrial Revolution;
  • John Stuart Mill fill for human equality, and the coming of democracy as a political phenomenon;
  • Alexis de Tocqueville for democracy as a social cultural phenomenon, both the persistence and the decline of the old régimes;
  • Emile Durkheim for collective effervescence; and
  • Adam Smith for the market economy.

Now let’s move forward a century to 1850. Who are the best five theorists to read to prepare students for the Belle Époque and then the Age of Horrors that was to follow? In my estimation, at least, John Maynard Keynes and Karl Polanyi are the most obvious choices to cover all of the coming of the globalized economy, the initiation of modern economic growth, and the dilemmas of political-economic management. After that, however, it gets much harder. There are many possibilities—and they all seem to me to be grossly inadequate to the task. I am tempted to go with Mill and Durkheim and Tocqueville again. But in the final analysis it seems to me that they miss too much. I choose Max Weber on modes of domination. I choose Vladimir Lenin over Karl Marx, for what one wants is for people to understand not the empyrean theories so much as the ideas that moved people to struggle, kill, and die. And I choose Hannah Arendt. All of these are very contestable, And I contest them in my own mind every day, even as I write this.

Now let us shorten our view somewhat.

Let us move ahead to 1950. And let us try to think not who would be most useful for analyzing 1950-2050 but merely for 1950-2015—for that is all that we have seen. We do know what was taught in social theory in 1950. What was taught is what I call the “Social Studies problematic”: Mill, Marx, Weber, Durkheim, with others (Freud, Foucault, Tocqueville, Smith, pick your favorite) added to that core. But that was what was taught, not what should have been taught. What should have been taught would have been theorists who would have enabled students to analyze and grapple with:

  • Les Trente Glorieuses;
  • The ossification and then collapse of the Soviet Empire;
  • Decolonization, and the economic rise of East Asia;
  • The coming of the Neoliberal Era and then of the Second Gilded Age.
  • The conspicuous failure to resolve or even to balance off the dilemmas of political-economic management; and
  • Equality and diversity.

Who would have been the best five to assign back in 1950, assuming that you had at your disposal then the proper time machine to pull the books off of today’s library shelves?

And then, after you have answered that question to your satisfaction, the kicker. Over at http://io9.com I see:

Robert Charles Wilson: “I’m tempted to repeat the old adage that science fiction doesn’t predict…

…it speculates. But science fiction does make one prediction that always comes true, and it’s the deep Heraclitian truth at the heart of the genre: change happens. Change is inevitable. It devours everything familiar and builds strange new structures on the quicksand of contingency. Step in the same river twice? Kid, we don’t even have that river anymore. We paved it over back when the rain stopped falling.

So what might be new and different in the next 10 years? We can start by asking what’s already beginning to feel old. And what feels old (to me) is our political and economic discourse. Here we stand, on the brink of a global climate catastrophe and embedded in an emerging oligarchy armed with a surveillance apparatus of unprecedented reach and power, discussing politics in terms Victorian philosophers would have recognized. There is a tinderbox of unmet expectations and frustrated idealism out there, and a genuinely captivating new political or economic idea—good or bad—could start a global conflagration.

How might such an idea arise? I would point at recent progress in cognitive science. We’re standing on the verge of a profound new understanding of the one subject Enlightenment philosophy could never really get a grip on: human nature. As we come to know ourselves better, we’ll begin to understand our political and social behavior differently—and, inevitably, we’ll find ways of manipulating and modifying that behavior. And how will that play out? Beats me. I’m just a science-fiction writer. But it invites some interesting speculation.

It is, I think, not 10 years but 50. But the question is very urgent: who are the five thinkers who should head social theory courses’ syllabuses today—and if those five have not yet written their books, what do their books say?

Things to Read at Lunchtime on May 11, 2015

Must- and Should-Reads:

Might Like to Be Aware of:

Must-Read: David Frum: British Election: What Republicans Can Learn From David Cameron

Must-Read: David Frum: British Election: What Republicans Can Learn From David Cameron: “Center-right parties in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom…

…have all made peace with government guarantees of healthcare for all… accept that universal health coverage in some form has joined old-age pensions and unemployment insurance in the armature of an advanced modern economy…. None seek to police women’s sexual behavior or to impose restrictions on women’s reproductive choices. All have accepted gay equality… comfortable with racial inclusion and competitive with ethnic-minority voters…. The parties are all unapologetically nationalist…. The parties are tough on terrorism, extremism, and international disorder…. Unlike their U.S. counterparts, these conservatives don’t fetishize the music, fashion, or religious practices of some of their voters in a way that prevents them from reaching all of their potential voters…

Must-Read: Brian Watt: More Momentum Behind L.A. Minimum Wage Hike

Must-Read: Brian Watt: More Momentum Behind L.A. Minimum Wage Hike: “Till von Wachter and Jeffrey Wenger… write most favorably about UC Berkeley’s study…

…commissioned by the city of Los Angeles… [that] found that the benefits of raising L.A.’s minimum wage would outweigh the costs. ‘If the debate were over raising the minimum wage to $13.25 per hour by 2017, we would argue that the Berkeley-IRLE-estimated impacts are the most likely scenario,’ they write…. Los Angeles’s minimum wage currently stands at $9 per hour.  After Garcetti proposed raising the minimum wage to $13.25, some members of the council proposed increasing the wage to $15.25 per hour by 2019. Wenger and von Wachter were less confident about the outcomes of that increase because that is longer time period and a larger wage increase than any city has previously experienced. ‘Whatever avenue is chosen, we highly encourage the City Council to follow the example of other city minimum wage ordinances and monitor the economic situation in the city’… developing complementary programs to aid both workers and firms that are most [adversely] affected…

Must-Read: Jason Furman: Smart Social Programs

Must-Read: My view was always–and subsequent research over the past generation has only confirmed my view, at least as I read the research–that the disemployment effects of safety-net programs were vastly oversold. Those who are discouraged appeared to me to be people who also had so many family responsibilities that their participation was of zero or negative societal value in the first place. The underlying subconscious logic behind overselling disemployment effects seemed to me to be one of punishing the poor, and and punishing women who either became pregnant without marriage or who could not keep a man…

Jason Furman: Smart Social Programs: “Anna Aizer [et al.]… 16,000 children whose families applied for a temporary income-support program…

…that was in effect from 1911 to 1935…. The program resulted in more education, higher earnings and lower mortality. Social Security data were used to follow program beneficiaries until as late as 2012, allowing researchers to show that the benefits of receiving even a few years of assistance as a child could persist for 80 years or more. Although we do not have 100 years of follow-on data from today’s programs, recent research following children as they entered their 20s and 30s has produced similarly striking findings… the earned-income tax credit… child poverty… low birth weight, raise math and reading scores and boost college enrollment…. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps, has been shown to have similar benefits for child recipients that can last decades. Receiving Medicaid in childhood makes it substantially more likely that a child will graduate from high school and complete college and less likely that an African-American child will die…. For women, Medicaid participation in childhood is associated with increased earnings….

The benefits often are not captured by short-term outcomes like improvements in children’s test scores, which typically last only a few years before fading…. Second, while program design certainly matters — and can matter a lot — much of the benefit appears to derive from helping low-income families pay for basic needs…. In many cases, the additional tax revenue from the higher long-run earnings generated by the program is sufficient to repay much or even more than all of the initial cost…. Moreover, safety-net programs do not discourage work in any big way…. And child care and pre-K programs make it easier for parents to work in the first place…

Must-Read: Bruce Bartlett: How Fox News Changed American Media and Political Dynamics

Must-Read: The thing that I think Bruce Bartlett misses is that Rupert Murdoch in company primarily regard FOXNews as a moneymaking opportunity rather then as policy or political intervention. The idea is to terrify your viewers, thus keep their eyeballs glued to the screen, and then sell those eyeballs to advertisers. The United States seems to me to be the only major country in the north Atlantic core politics has been moving left since 1996–and some of that, I think, is due to the effect of FOXNews on the political ecology.

Bruce Bartlett: How Fox News Changed American Media and Political Dynamics: “The creation of Fox News in 1996 was an event of deep, yet unappreciated, political and historical importance…

…For the first time, there was a news source available virtually everywhere in the United States, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, with a conservative tilt. Finally, conservatives did not have to seek out bits of news favorable to their point of view in liberal publications or in small magazines and newsletters. Like someone dying of thirst in the desert, conservatives drank heavily from the Fox waters. Soon, it became the dominant – and in many cases, virtually the only – major news source for millions of Americans. This has had profound political implications that are only starting to be appreciated. Indeed, it can almost be called self-brainwashing – many conservatives now refuse to even listen to any news or opinion not vetted through Fox, and to believe whatever appears on it as the gospel truth.

Do states’ tax policies cause U.S. employees to earn less and employers to earn more?

There are many economic theories about why overall income has moved away from income earned through labor and towards capital, such as stocks and bonds. Economics columnist Robert Samuelson notes that the United States has experienced a $750 billion transfer in income from labor to capital in the past decade alone. The academic world is hard at work trying to figure out what is behind this trend, but finding the kind of causal evidence necessary to identify possible policy proposals to reverse is even more difficult.

That is why Owen Zidar, an assistant professor for economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and 2014 Equitable Growth grantee, is investigating whether states’ individual tax policies may play a role in the decline of income going to labor. Over the past 50 years, many states, in an attempt to be “business friendly,” have experimented with different kinds of investment and corporate tax credits as a means to encourage investment in their states. Zidar’s research asks whether such tactics by states have resulted in a shift in income from workers to capital owners.

Zidar’s research will build upon earlier research by Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman of the University of Chicago, who contend that it is cheaper and more powerful technological equipment that is driving the trend. Computers and robotics, they believe, have allowed businesses throughout the world to replace workers with automated systems, thereby reducing the labor share of income. Zidar is exploring the possibility that state tax preferences could have the unintended consequence of making such investments even cheaper, furthering workers’ disadvantage.

To economists, this recent phenomenon of a falling share of income going to labor comes as a big surprise. In 1957, when Nicholas Kaldor outlined six “stylized facts” about economic growth, he included a declaration that there is a roughly constant share of income flowing to labor versus capital. Until it was discovered very recently that the labor share was indeed declining, Kaldor’s point was taken as economic gospel.  Today, there are many explanations for what is happening to labor’s share of income, such as Karabarbounis and Neiman’s claim that changes in technology are driving the trend. Other research suggests that globalization, the growth of the finance sector, or the decline of unions are important contributing factors.

Zidar’s research on the role cheaper technology may play in reducing the labor share of income could have important policy implications, especially if it reveals a direct relationship between states’ tax policies and the amount of income going toward labor versus capital. Policymakers might need to reconsider whether these kinds of tax credits are always the most economically prudent—both in terms of paying a fair wage and strengthening the economy overall.

Things to Read at Nighttime on May 8, 2015

Must- and Should-Reads:

Simon Wren-Lewis: “The IMF… may be full of economists, but it is ultimately run by politicians who may have too many ties to those in the Eurozone. But as Ashoka Mody says, the IMF’s credibility is at stake. It should… focus its efforts on getting the rest of the Troika to be realistic. Above all else, Greece must be helped out of its depression…. Sensible macroeconomists, including those at the IMF, know that makes sense. If Yanis Varoufakis could not achieve this, perhaps the economists at the IMF can do better…”
* Robert Waldmann: Modern Macroeconomic Methodology
* Jessica Fulton: The importance of addressing the U.S. racial and ethnic wealth gap
* Morning Must-Read: Chris Blattman: The Wire Got It Backwards
* Ratna Sahay et al.: How Much Finance Is Too Much: Stability, Growth & Emerging Markets
* Must-Read: Mark Thoma: Here’s an Economic Agenda for Hillary Clinton
* Must-Read: Elizabeth Stoker Bruenig: David Brooks Endorses Nepotism

Might Like to Be Aware of: