Must-Read: Pascal Seppecher, Isabelle Salle, and Dany Lang: Is the Market Really a Good Teacher?

Must-Read: Pascal Seppecher, Isabelle Salle, and Dany Lang: Is the Market Really a Good Teacher?: “Our learning model is an ever-adapting process that puts a significant weight on exploration vis-à-vis exploitation…

…We show that decentralized market selection allows firms to collectively adapt their overall debt strategies to the changes in the macroeconomic environment so that the system sustains itself, but at the cost of recurrent deep downturns. We conclude that, in complex evolving economies, market processes do not lead to the selection of optimal behaviors, as the characterization of successful behaviors itself constantly evolves as a result of the market conditions that these behaviors contribute to shape. Heterogeneity in behavior remains essential to adaptation in such an ever-changing environment. We come to an evolutionary characterization of a crisis, as the point where the evolution of the macroeconomic system becomes faster than the adaptation capabilities of the agents that populate it, and the so-far selected performing behaviors suddenly cease to be, and become instead undesirable…

Must-Reads: May 28, 2016


Should Reads:

Helicopter Money!: No Longer So Live at Project Syndicate

For economies at the the zero lower bound on safe nominal short-term interest rates, in the presence of a Keynesian fiscal multiplier of magnitude μ–now thought, for large industrial economies or for coordinated expansions to be roughly 2 and certainly greater than one–an extra dollar or pound or euro of fiscal expansion will boost real GDP by μ dollars or pounds or euros. And as long as the interest rates at which the governments borrow are less than the sum of the inflation plus the labor-force growth plus the labor-productivity growth rate–which they are–the properly-measured amortization cost of the extra government liabilities is negative: because of the creation of the extra debt, long-term budget balance allows more rather than less spending on government programs, even with constant tax revenue.

Production and employment benefits, no debt-amortization costs as long as economies stay near the zero lower-bound on interest rates. Fiscal stimulus is thus a no-brainer, right?

Perhaps you point to a political-economy risk that should economies, for some reason, move rapidly away from the zero lower bound their governments will not dare make the optimal fiscal-policy adjustments then appropriate. But future governments that wish to pursue bad policies no matter what we do today. And offsetting this vague and shadowy political-economy risks is the very tangible benefit that fiscal expansion’s production of a higher-pressure economy generates substantial positive spillovers in labor-force skills and attachment, in business investment and business-model development, and in useful infrastructure put in place.

Truly a no-brainer. The only issue is “how much?” And that is a technocratic benefit-cost calculation. Rare indeed these days is the competent economist who has thought through the benefit-cost calculation and failed to conclude that the governments of the United States, Germany, and Britain have large enough multipliers, strong enough spillovers of infrastructure investment and other demand-boosting programs, and sufficient fiscal space to make substantially more expansionary fiscal policies optimal.

This is the backdrop against which we today find aversion to fiscal expansion being driven not by pragmatic technocratic benefit-cost calculations but by raw ideology. And so we find my one-time teacher and long-time colleague Barry Eichengreen https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/monetary-policy-limits-fiscal-expansion-by-barry-eichengreen-2016-03 being… positively shrill: While “the world economy is visibly sinking”, he writes:

the policymakers… are tying themselves in knots… the G-20 summit… an anodyne statement…. It is disturbing to see… particularly… the US and Germany [refusing] to even contemplate such action, despite available fiscal space…. In Germany, ideological aversion to budget deficits… rooted in the post-World War II doctrine of ‘ordoliberalism’… [that] rendered Germans allergic to macroeconomics…. [In] the US… citizens have been suspicious of federal government power, including the power to run deficits… suspicion… strongest in the American South…. During the civil rights movement, it was again the Southern political elite… antagonistic to… federal power…. Welcome to ordoliberalism, Dixie-style. Wolfgang Schäuble, meet Ted Cruz.

Barry, faced with the triumph of sterile austerian ideology over practical technocratic economic stewardship, concludes with a plea:

Ideological and political prejudices deeply rooted in history will have to be overcome…. If an extended period of depressed growth following a crisis isn’t the right moment to challenge them, then when is?

Barry will continue to teach the history. He will continue to teach that expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in deep depressions have worked very well, and that eschewing them out of fears of interfering with “structural adjustment” has been a disaster. But this is no longer, if it ever was, an intellectual discussion or debate.

So perhaps there is a flanking move possible. “Monetary policy” and “fiscal policy” are economic-theoretic concepts. There is no requirement that they neatly divide into and correspond to the actions of institutional actors.

German, American, and British austerians have a fear and suspicion of central banks that is rooted in the same Ordoliberal and Ordovolkist ideological fever swamps as their objections to deficit-spending legislatures. But it is much weaker. It is much weaker because, as David Glasner points out, fundamentalist cries for an automatic monetary system–whether based on a gold standard, on Milton Friedman’s k%/year percent growth rule, or John Taylor’s mandatory fixed-coefficients interest-rate rule–have all crashed and burned so spectacularly. History has refuted Henry Simons’s call for rules rather than authorities in monetary policy. The institution-design task in monetary policy is not to construct rules but, instead, to construct authorities with sensible objectives and values and technocratic competence.

And central banks can do more than they have done. They have immense regulatory powers to require that the banks under their supervision to hold capital, lend to previously discriminated-against classes of borrowers, and serve the communities in which they are embedded as well as returning dividends to their shareholders and making the options of their executives valuable. And they have clever lawyers.

Their policy interventions have always been “fiscal policy” in a very real sense. They collect the tax on the economy we call “seigniorage”. There is no necessity that they turn their seigniorage revenue over to their finance ministries. Their interventions have always altered the present value of future government principal and interest payments.

Mid nineteenth-century British Whig Prime Minister Robert Peel was criticized by many for putting too-tight restrictions on crisis action in the Bank of England’s recharter. His response was that the new charter was written to cover eventualities that people could foresee. But that should eventualities occur that had not been foreseen, the only hope was for there then to be statesmen who were willing to assume the grave responsibility of dealing with the situation. And that he was confident there would be such statesmen.

Yes, it is time for central bankers to assume responsibility and undertake what we call “helicopter money”.

It could take many forms. It depends on the exact legal structure and powers of the central banks. It also depends on the extent to which central banks are willing, as the Bank of England did in the nineteenth century, to undertake actions that are not intra but ultra vires with the implicit or explicit promise that the rest of the government will turn a blind eye. The key is getting extra cash into the hands of those constrained in their spending by low incomes and a lack of collateral assets. The key is doing so in a way that does not lead them to even a smidgeon of fear that repayment obligations have even a smidgeon of a possibility of becoming in any way onerous.

Must-Read: Andrew J. Nathan

Must-Read: Wilhelmine China: a rapidly-industrializing country ruled by a social caste that has lost its role…

Andrew J. Nathan: Who Is Xi Jinping?: “Xi Jinping’s respect for Mao is not a personal eccentricity…

…It is shared by many of the hereditary Communist aristocrats who… form most of China’s top leadership today as well as a large section of its business elite….. Contrary to the Western consensus that Deng saved the system after Mao nearly wrecked it, Xi and many other red aristocrats feel that it was Deng who came close to destroying Mao’s legacy…. The children of the founding elite see themselves as the inheritors of… a vast world that their fathers conquered under Mao’s leadership. Their parents came from poor rural villages and rose to rule an empire. The second generation… do not propose to be the generation that ‘loses the empire.’… They see no irony in cheering Xi Jinping’s attack on corrupt bureaucrats although Mao purged their own fathers as ‘capitalist roaders in power.’ Mao’s purges they excuse as a mistake. But they see today’s bureaucrats as flocking to serve the Party because it is in power and not because they inherited a spirit of revolutionary sacrifice from their forebears. Such opportunists are worms eating away at the legacy of revolution.

The legacy is threatened by other forces… a slowing economy… laid-off workers… underperforming giant state-owned enterprises… bad bank loans… climate change and environmental devastation… downsize and upgrade the military…. Any leader who confronts so many big problems needs a lot of power, and Mao provides a model of how such power can be wielded…. Xi emulates Mao in exercising power through a tight circle of aides whom he can trust because they have demonstrated their personal loyalty in earlier phases of his career…. Xi wants ‘rule by law,’ but this means using the courts more energetically to carry out political repression and change the bureaucracy’s style of work. He wants to reform the universities, not in order to create Western-style academic freedom but to bring academics and students to heel (including those studying abroad). He has launched a thorough reorganization of the military, which is intended partly to make it more effective in battle, but also to reaffirm its loyalty to the Party and to him personally. The overarching purpose of reform is to keep the Chinese Communist Party in power….

Deng built a system… senior leaders were limited to two terms… divided leadership roles… made decisions in consultation with other leaders and retired elders. By overturning Deng’s system, Xi is hanging the survival of the regime on his ability to bear an enormous workload and not make big mistakes. He seems to be scaring the mass media and officials outside his immediate circle from telling him the truth. He is trying to bottle up a growing diversity of social and intellectual forces that are bound to grow stronger. He may be breaking down… the consensus about China’s path of development…. He has broken the rule that retired leaders are safe once they leave office, throwing into question whether it can ever be safe for him to leave office. As he departs from Deng’s path, he risks undermining the adaptability and resilience that Deng’s reforms painstakingly created for the post-Mao regime.

As the members of the red aristocracy around Xi circle their wagons to protect the regime, some citizens retreat into religious observance or private consumption, others send their money and children abroad, and a sense of impending crisis pervades society. No wonder Xi’s regime behaves as if it faces an existential threat. Given the power and resources that he commands, it would be reckless to predict that his attempt to consolidate authoritarian rule will fail. But the attempt risks creating the very political crisis that it seeks to prevent.

Weekend reading: Memorial Day long weekend edition

This is a weekly post we publish on Fridays with links to articles that touch on economic inequality and growth. The first section is a round-up of what Equitable Growth has published this week and the second is work we’re highlighting from elsewhere. We won’t be the first to share these articles, but we hope by taking a look back at the whole week, we can put them in context.

Equitable Growth round-up

As U.S. corporations seemingly get better and better at avoiding corporate income tax, some people have called for just shifting the entirety of the tax onto shareholders. But there are a few problems with that idea, mainly because only a fourth of stocks are taxable these days.

Quite a few safety net programs in the United States are focused either explicitly or implicitly on helping the children of low-wage workers. But new research shows the importance of a mother’s situation well before the child is actually born.

Equitable Growth published the final essays in its History of Technology series this week with essays from Ann Johnson of Cornell Johnson on environmental regulation and technological development and Michael Gorman of the University of Virginia on how the technologies of today may interact with new educational systems.

Links from around the web

“Instead of delivering growth, some neoliberal policies have increased inequality, in turn jeopardizing durable expansion,” according to a new paper from the International Monetary Fund. Jonathan Ostry, Prakash Lougani, and Davide Furceri write that the neoliberal agenda for economic growth was oversold. [imf]

A credit card can be an important lifeline if you lose a job. Access to credit can help get by as you look for a new job, much like unemployment insurance. Kate Davidson highlights some Equitable Growth-funded research on how access to more credit when a worker is laid off helps them search longer and find a higher-paying job. [wsj]

The slow pace of productivity growth in the United States is an unfortunate but well-known fact these days. But perhaps it worse than most of us have considered. Sam Fleming and Chris Giles report on new research showing that U.S. productivity growth may be negative in 2016. [ft]

Another disconcerting trend for the U.S. economy (and perhaps a related one) is the decline in labor market fluidity. American workers are less likely to move to a different state and switch jobs while job-creation rates have dropped. Patricia Cohen reports on this trend and its implications. [nyt]

High rents in cities such as San Francisco have sparked thinking about how to make the city and those like it more affordable. A consensus seems to be emerging that believes increased housing supply and density will do the trick. Steven Randy Waldman argues against this consensus in favor of just building newer, denser cities. [interfluidity]

Friday figure

Figure from “The shifting fate of the U.S. labor market” by Nick Bunker

Must-Read: Nick Bunker: What’s the deal with U.S. wage growth?

Must-Read: Suppose you put someone in cryogenic sleep a decade ago, woke them up today, showed them this graph:

Graph Employment Cost Index Total compensation All Civilian FRED St Louis Fed

and said: “The U.S. Federal Reserve still has the same 2%/year inflation target it had in the early 2000s. Do you think it should raise or lower interest rates in June?”

I cannot think of a single reason why such a person would say “raise interest rates” (unless, of course, their compensation was an increasing function of the interest rate).

Nick Bunker: What’s the deal with U.S. wage growth?: “The U.S. unemployment rate has been at or under 5 percent for more than six months…

…But… neither inflation nor wage growth has picked up considerably, despite expectations that they would…. First… the unemployment rate may be slightly overstating the health of the country’s labor market. Measured by the employed share of workers ages 25 to 54, the labor market has a long way to go before it hits a level usually associated with strong wage growth…. Adam Ozimek… points out that… low inflation has an impact on wage growth, because employers will be less willing to pass along wage hikes to prices, and employees will need less of a wage increase…. A third argument is that… low measured wage growth is due in part to low-wage workers moving into full-time employment…. Already-full-time employees are seeing rising wages, that growth is masked by the entrance of lower-earning workers…. It seems likely… that… five percent just isn’t what it used to be…

Must-Read: Laura Tyson and James Manyika: Putting Profits in Perspective

Must-Read: Laura Tyson and James Manyika: Putting Profits in Perspective: “Corporate profits may be near all-time highs…

but their variance among firms and industries has also increased significantly. The most profitable firms in the US are… in sectors that capitalize on research and development, brands, software, and algorithms. Companies in sectors like pharmaceuticals, media, finance, information technology, and business services have the highest profit margins… excluding finance, these sectors’ share of US corporate profits has increased significantly, from 25% in 1999 to 35% in 2013…. In the most digitally advanced sectors of the economy, margins have grown 2-3 times faster than average. And even within these sectors, there are enormous spreads between the top-performing companies and the rest of the pack. The ‘winner-take-most’ dynamic of the digital economy is not only producing record profits for leading firms; it may be accelerating the pace of innovation and broadening the areas in which companies can enter and quickly establish market power…

Must-Read: Branko Milanovic: How Unequal Is India?

Must-Read: Branko Milanovic: How unequal is India?: “In the 1990s… the survey numbers began to diverge more and more from National Accounts statistics…

…NSS kept on producing a fairly stable consumption Gini… with only a small increase in inequality after India’s sharp turn toward capitalism in the early 1990s… made India inequality look about the same as in developed countries. But until recently we had no other reliable and nationally-representative survey to confront NSS with. Now… we have… the first income based surveys of Indian population for 2004 and, just released by LIS, another same survey for 2011…. First, Indian Gini is… 51… the level of Latin American countries and is some 15 points… higher than… NSS….

Now, if we replace NSS with the new income survey as I have done for the global inequality calculation for the year 2011 (unpublished), you may expect that the greater inequality revealed by IHDS would push global inequality up, especially since India is such a populous country. Right? Wrong…. Global inequality goes down by approximately 1 Gini point since the higher income levels implied by IHDS push Indians toward the middle of the global income distribution and more than offset the contribution to higher global inequality that comes from the stretched-out Indian distribution…. In conclusion, more unequal but richer India, makes the world more equal.

Must-Read: Noah Smith: Finding Better Ideas to Rebuild America

Must-Read: Noah Smith: Finding Better Ideas to Rebuild America: “‘Concrete Economics,’ by University of California-Berkeley professors Brad DeLong and Stephen S. Cohen, needs an expanded sequel…

…900 pages long, with charts, data, theory and an exhaustive list of historical case studies. That book would become the Bible of the New Industrialist movement that is just beginning to grope its way out of the ashes of the neoliberal free-market consensus. Perhaps that tome will get written. But DeLong and Cohen couldn’t wait to write it, because we need new ideas now, and they decided they had to put a sketch of those new ideas into people’s heads very quickly. And I agree with their decision. If you’re at all concerned about economic policy, this is a book you need to read. It will take you only a couple of hours, and the time will be well-spent….

The peril of this sort of historical analysis is that it’s always easy to make the past fit some pattern after the fact. Sometimes policy causes big economic shifts, and sometimes it’s just along for the ride. A cautionary tale is provided by Japan’s experience, which DeLong and Cohen extol. Although Japan’s government certainly did try to pick winners — and still does — this probably stopped working around the late 1970s. For a good primer on how Japan’s industrial policy petered out, see ‘Can Japan Compete?,’ by Michael Porter, Hirotaka Takeuchi and Mariko Sakakibara. Nor have South Korea and China, for all their fast growth, yet managed to reach the income levels of the finance-ridden U.S….

DeLong and Cohen are absolutely right — the American mind has been far too captured by the beguilingly simple and powerful theory of free-market dogma. That theory was oversold, and we need a corrective…. DeLong and Cohen don’t focus on elevating… theories…. DeLong and Cohen propose to frame economic policy programs in terms of simple, tangible, objectives. Build railroads across the West. Break up monopolies. Fund Big Science…. This short, almost casually sketched book is really the opening shot in a long campaign… to build a New Industrialism–an approach to economic policy that respects the power of the private sector but isn’t afraid of an activist government. No one quite knows what New Industrialism is going to be yet. ‘Concrete Economics’ is meant to get people thinking about what it ought to be.

Must-Reads: May 27, 2016


Should Reads: