Nighttime Must-Read: Richard Mayhew: Thoughts on a Post-King Market

Richard Mayhew: Thoughts on a Post-King Market: “I alternate between being sure that there are five votes…

…on the Supreme Court to throw out a couple of generations of agreed-upon administrative law precedents in order to keep people from getting subsidized health insurance in most states, and being reasonably confident that there are only three…. I see the four liberal judges writing a fairly brief and caustic opinion…. The other two judges in the positive scenario will write a paen to the majesty of cooperative federalism where the law clearly states that subsidies only go to state run exchanges BUT the threat was not clearly communicated therefore, the subsidies have to flow to all states…. But what happens if the Supremes have five sadists?… Quite a few insurers would pull most if not all of their On-Exchange products…. The remaining individual insurance market now looks like the pre-PPACA New York State insurance market…. We get a death spiral where average premiums for a 30 year old would almost double… [and] reasonably-healthy people who otherwise would have qualified for subsidies now sit out of the market because they can’t afford the coverage…

February 16, 2015

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