Must- and Should-Reads for November 5, 2017

• Ryan Avent (2011): Best Budget Ever: “PAUL RYAN has officially revealed the House Republicans’ budget proposal…
• David Kamin: How a Tax Cut Turns Into a Tax Increase: “In rolling out their plan, House Republicans focused on an example family…
• Martin Wolf: The challenge of Xi Jinping’s Leninist autocracy: “Xi Jinping[‘s]… claims… are bold: ‘Socialism with Chinese characteristics has crossed the threshold into a new era,’…
• Jason Furman and Greg Leiserson: The real cost of the Republican tax cuts: “The House Republican plan will itself be incomplete…
• Jason Furman: @jasonfurman on Twitter: “THREAD. New results from Penn-Wharton Budget Model show wage effects of corporate tax changes…
  Tim Alberta: John Boehner Unchained: “After railing against the defund strategy, however, Boehner surveyed his conference and realized…
• Equitable Growth: Jobs Day Graphs: October 2017 Report Edition | Equitable Growth: “After an increase in September, the prime employment rate fell slightly to 78.8 percent in October…
• Nick Bunker: Weekend reading: “Winners, losers, and tax plans” edition: “Next month will mark 10 years since the beginning of the Great Recession…
• Sam Bell: Why Yellen Was Not Reappointed: “Trump deserves blame for not reappointing Yellen but more a story about the GOP…
• Mark Thoma: Federal Reserve Independence: “After the FOMC cut interest rates to almost nil during the Great Recession, the committee took advantage of its independence to boldly go where no Fed had gone before…
• Elhanan Helpman, Oleg Itskhoki, Marc-Andreas Muendler, and Stephen J. Redding: From Theory to Estimation: “Trade and Inequality: While neoclassical theory emphasizes the impact of trade on wage inequality between occupations and sectors…
• Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji: Behavioural economics is also useful in macroeconomics: “Concepts from behavioural economics… [help] develop macroeconomic models with endogenous business cycle fluctuations…
• Paul Krugman: Paul Ryan Is Choking On His Own Mystery Meat: “A cynic might have expected Republicans to go for full-on cynicism…
• Dani Rodrik: The Trouble With Globalization: “The United States, too, could have moved aggressively to compensate dislocated workers in the 1990s, when it opened its economy to imports from Mexico, China…
• Wladimir Woytinsky (1952): Lerner’s Economics of Employment: A Review: “The first and most obvious objection-conforming with the idea of Functional Finance as a supplement to the ordinary budget-is…
• Steven Rosenthal: Foreigners Would Win Big from A Corporate Tax Cut: “The Trump Administration and congressional Republican leaders (the Big Six) have proposed a $70 billion-a-year tax cut for foreign investors…
• Heather Boushey: Equitable Growth in Conversation: Kimberly A. Clausing: “Boushey: One of the arguments that you hear time and time again for why Congress needs to reduce the corporate tax rate is that doing so will boost investment in overall economic growth…
• John Quiggin: The end of fossil fuels: “The International Energy Agency recently released data showing that world coal production fell sharply in 2016, mainly because of big cuts in China…
• David Glasner: Larry Summers v. John Taylor: No Contest: “‘If a Fed Funds rate higher than the rate set for the past three years would have led, as the Taylor rule implies, to lower inflation…
• Bridget Ansel: The gender gap in economics has ramifications far beyond the ivory tower: “The lack of women in economics—and their segregation into certain subfields—boast ramifications beyond individual women’s careers…
• Iris Marechal: Weekend reading: the “fiscal highlights” edition: “Rex Nutting argues that the Trump-Ryan plan will actually encourage more corporate offshore tax avoidance…
• Austin Clemens: Here’s why you should interpret GDP growth estimates skeptically: “No single number can really tell us much of anything about our immensely complicated $19 trillion economy…

Links and Such:

• Pedro Nicolaci da Costa: Puerto Rico devastation hits already tattered island economy – Business Insider
• Josh Barro: GOP tax plan’s biggest problem is ‘small business’ provision: “What we are seeing now is that a lot of people and a lot of interest groups like the idea of tax reform in theory — but that if you add up all their theories, you’ll find the tax benefits they expect to get add up to more than the $1.5 trillion Republicans have available to hand out. Once it becomes clear who’s not getting what they want, it will be a lot harder to hold the tax reform coalition together…”
• Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato and Owen Zidar: Who benefits from corporate tax cuts? Evidence from local US labour markets: “The largest beneficiaries from a tax cut would be the owners of firms (40%), with landowners and workers splitting the remaining 60% of the economic gains…”
• Stephen Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz: Black Monday: Thirty years after: “A key lingering vulnerability – the lack of a mechanism for managing the insolvency of critical payment, clearing, and settlement institutions…”
• Ned Phelps: Nothing Natural About the Natural Rate of Unemployment: “A compelling hypothesis is that workers, shaken by the 2008 financial crisis and the deep recession that resulted, have grown afraid to demand promotions or to search for better-paying employers – despite the ease of finding work in the recently tight labor market…”
• Susan Dynarski: Online Schooling: Who Is Harmed and Who Is Helped?: “Online coursework should be focused on expanding course options or providing acceleration for students who are academically prepared, rather than shoring up the performance of those who are lagging…”
• Nancy LeTourneau: Establishment Republicans Will Lose Their Civil War With the Insurgents: “a fascinating piece written by Oliver Darcy over a year ago about how GOP leaders had been ejected from the epistemic bubble created by right wing media…”
• Christa Blackmon: Acknowledging Mistakes: I Don’t Want To Be Lisa Bloom – Lawyers, Guns & Money
• Adriana Kugler, Catherine Tinsley, and Olga Ukhaneva: Why there aren’t more women in STEM fields: “Women are just as resilient to negative feedback as men when deciding whether to continue in a field of study, but when faced with additional signals such as an association of the field with masculinity, they appear to become more prone to opt out in response to low grades…”
• Harold James: Europe’s Hard-Core Problem: “France and Germany urgently need to develop a shared vision that transcends their own national politics and embraces genuine EU-level reform…”
• Nicholas Davis: Learning from Martin Luther About Technological Disruption: “Perhaps the most enduring lesson of Luther’s call for a scholarly debate–and his use of technology to deliver his views–is that it failed. Instead of a series of public discussions about the Church’s evolving authority, the Protestant Reformation became a bitter battle played out via mass communication, splitting not just a religious institution but also an entire region. Worse, it became a means to justify centuries of atrocities…”
• Davide Cantoni, Jeremiah Dittmar, and Noam Yuchtman: The Protestant Reformation and the allocation of resources in Europe: “Five hundred years ago today, Martin Luther…. The Reformation not only transformed Western Europe’s religious landscape, but also led to an immediate and large secularisation of Europe’s political economy…”
• Michael Winship: GOP Tax Cuts Won’t Pass This Year — Or Maybe Even Next: “In Part 1 of a two-part interview, former Reagan economic adviser Bruce Bartlett says Trump is lying about tax reform that will benefit the super rich and hurt everyone else…”
• Josh Barro: How tax reform is likely to pan out: “When the legislation is released on Wednesday, it will likely become more unpopular than it already is as a framework. Republicans have a math problem that will make passing the legislation extremely difficult…”
• Amanda Bayer and David Wilcox: The Unequal Distribution of Economic Education: A Report on the Race, Ethnicity, and Gender of Economics Majors at US
  Colleges and Universities
• Jonathan Chapman et al.: Willingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept are Probably Less Correlated Than You Think
• Pete Klenow and Huiyu Li: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco |
• Nicholas Bagley: Trump and the Essential Health Benefits
• **Noah Smith: Japan Goes With Another Round of Abenomics – Bloomberg: “And why not? The economy hasn’t been this good since the 1980s…”
• Sustainable Development Goals: No Longer Fresh at Project Syndicate
• Keeping US Policymaking Honest: Fresh at Project Syndicate
• “Stockmanism” or “Magic Asteriskism” Is Bad Economics. Period
• When Globalization is Public Enemy Number One: At the Milken Review.