Morning Must-Read: Evan Soltas: Falling Labor Force Participation Update
Evan Soltas reports one of the smaller estimates of the permanent labor-side hysteresis damage done to the American economy by the Lesser Depression: 1.2/60 = 2% permanent decline in the American labor force relative to the previous trend. Something to make my less pessimistic on New Year’s Eve Eve…
Falling Labor Force Participation Update:
“The top-line result is that…
…of the 3.1 percentage-point decline in the participation rate between March 2007 and March 2014, 1.9 p.p (three-fifths) is explained demographic change and 1.2 p.p (two-fifths) of it is unexplained by demographic change. Of the explained portion, almost all of that (1.6 p.p.) is aging…”