This Is Not a Macroeconomy That Marginal Investors Think Will Be at Full Employment Anytime in the Next Five Years

That is all…

Rob Wile: 10-Year Treasury Yield Tumbles: “The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has tumbled to 2.4413%, a new low for 2014, per Bloomberg data.

There are a variety of factors fueling the rally, some of which we’ve previously discussed. The main ones are ongoing uncertainty about the recovery and constrained inflation. “Long-dated Treasuries outperformed because of the perception that the U.S. is going to have moderate growth without inflationary pressure,” Salman Ahmed, a London-based global strategist at Lombard Odier Asset Management, told Bloomberg. “Or at least, that’s what the Fed is saying.” Other factors include fears that the European Central Bank will lower interest rates, making Europe’s bonds relatively less appealing; overseas demand for U.S. debt; and short covering among those who thought yields would rise.